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DOE OSTI2020

High Order Implicit Residual-Based Spatial Discretization Error Estimation for S N Neutron Transport

This work demonstrates our novel residual source spatial discretization error estimator (LeR/TEAD) for a DGFEM-1 discretization and assesses it along with two contemporary estimators, Ragusa and Wang's h -refinement estimator (RW) and Duo, Azmy, and Zikatanov's explicit residual-based estimator (DAZ), on a suite of Method of Manufactured Solutions (MMS) 2D problems and three realistic problem geometries. LeR/TE-AD is attractive because it directly estimates the local error in the angular flux, as opposed to a mere indicator of the error's behavior, on the same mesh and method order as the original numerical solution, thus typically being less computationally intensive than a refinement-based method. On the MMS suite, LeR/TE-AD consistently displayed a reduced performance versus its DGFEM-0 results in terms of accuracy and precision metrics, though it was not typically grossly inaccurate. This is attributed to the irregularities in the true solution across singular characteristics limiting the local accuracy of the numerical flux solution, leading to poor derivative approximations used in the residual approximations. The error transport problem then spreads the error in the residual to nearby cells, causing a greater degree of imprecision that did not afflict DAZ or RW. In testing the estimators on realistic problem geometries, however, LeR/TE-AD fared better. In practice, the true error is much larger in non-idealized geometries like in MMS, and a superlinear true solution means that RW and DAZ are not beneficially biased for DGFEM-1 error estimation. LeR/TE-AD was typically first or second in accuracy, primarily competing with RW, but the latter usually consumed 2-4 times the computational time as LeR/TE-AD, and requires a solution with four times as many unknowns. Furthermore, RW and LeR/TE-AD can be used to compute direct estimates of the error in any quantity of interest that is based on the angular ux solution, such as the fission rate density in a fuel pin, whereas DAZ requires a heuristic extension due to its norm-based nature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-T-330: To Analyze the Calculation Error of Live Dose-Volume Indices Applying 4D-CT in Radiotherapy for PTVs Within the Liver Completely

Purpose: To study the variation rule of normal liver dose-volume indices calculation for the liver malignancy patients whose plan target volumes were in the liver completely in all breath phases. Methods: Ten patients who accepted radiotherapy for malignant tumor were selected in our study. All patients underwent 4D-CT simulation and 3D-CT simulation in free breathing(FB). 4D-CT was sorted into 10 series CT images according to breath phase, named CT0, CT10 to CT90, respectively. And GTVs were contoured on different CT series, and the individual target volume(ITV) was obtained by merging 10 GTVs from 4D-CT. The PTVs were obtained from ITV applying margins. The PTVs were not beyond the boundary of liver in all breath phase observed by dynamic 4D-CT. The radiotherapy plans were designed and irradiation dose was calculated on 3D-CT images, and the livers were contoured on different series CT images and mapped to 3D-CT images applying rigid registration. To compare the dose-volume difference of livers based on distinct CT images. Results: (1)The liver volumes were similar on 4D-CT and 3D-CT images(CTFB 1485±500cm{sup 3}, CT0 1413±377cm{sup 3}, CT10 1409±396cm{sup 3}, CT20 1419±418cm{sup 3},CT30 1485±500cm{sup 3}, CT40 1438±392cm{sup 3}, CT50 1437±404cm{sup 3}, CT60 1439±409cm{sup 3}, CT70 1408±393cm{sup 3}, CT80 1384±397cm{sup 3}, CT90 1398±397cm{sup 3}; F=0.064,p=1.00) (2) The PTVs volume were 30.17±14.62cm{sup 3};(3) The mean dose and V5 to V10 of liver were similar among 4D-CT different series CT images(p>0.05), and the indices varied less than ±4% refer to liver on CT50. Conclusion: The calculation affection of liver dose-volume indices induced by breath motion were not significant for the PTV within liver completely as estimation before. And more objective prediction indices for radiation induced l.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

PRESAGE: Protecting Structured Address Generation against Soft Errors

Modern computer scaling trends in pursuit of larger component counts and power efficiency have, unfortunately, lead to less reliable hardware and consequently soft errors escaping into application data ("silent data corruptions"). Techniques to enhance system resilience hinge on the availability of efficient error detectors that have high detection rates, low false positive rates, and lower computational overhead. Unfortunately, efficient detectors to detect faults during address generation (to index large arrays) have not been widely researched. We present a novel lightweight compiler-driven technique called PRESAGE for detecting bit-flips affecting structured address computations. A key insight underlying PRESAGE is that any address computation scheme that flows an already incurred error is better than a scheme that corrupts one particular array access but otherwise (falsely) appears to compute perfectly. Enabling the flow of errors allows one to situate detectors at loop exit points, and helps turn silent corruptions into easily detectable error situations. Our experiments using PolyBench benchmark suite indicate that PRESAGE-based error detectors have a high error-detection rate while incurring low overheads.

Sharma, Vishal C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Observations of greenhouse gases as climate indicators

Humans have significantly altered the energy balance of the Earth’s climate system mainly not only by extracting and burning fossil fuels but also by altering the biosphere and using halocarbons. The 3rd US National Climate Assessment pointed to a need for a system of indicators of climate and global change based on long-term data that could be used to support assessments and this led to the development of the National Climate Indicators System (NCIS). Here we identify a representative set of key atmospheric indicators of changes in atmospheric radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases (GHGs), and we evaluate atmospheric composition measurements, including non-CO<:sub>2 GHGs for use as climate change indicators in support of the US National Climate Assessment. GHG abundances and their changes over time can provide valuable information on the success of climate mitigation policies, as well as insights into possible carbon-climate feedback processes that may ultimately affect the success of those policies. To ensure that reliable information for assessing GHG emission changes can be provided on policy-relevant scales, expanded observational efforts are needed. Furthermore, the ability to detect trends resulting from changing emissions requires a commitment to supporting long-term observations. Long-term measurements of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and clouds and related climate indicators used with a dimming/brightening index could provide a foundation for quantifying forcing and its attribution and reducing error in existing indicators that do not account for complicated cloud processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

Localization of Southern Resident Killer Whales Using Two Star Arrays to Support Marine Renewable Energy

Tidal power has been identified as one of the most potential commercial-scale renewable energy sources. Puget Sound, Washington, is a potential site to deploy tidal power generating devices. The risk of injury for killer whales needs to be managed before the deployment of these types of devices can be approved by regulating authorities. A passive acoustic system consisting of two star arrays, each with four hydrophones, was designed and implemented for the detection and localization of Southern Resident killer whales. Deployment of the passive acoustic system was conducted at Sequim Bay, Washington. A total of nine test locations were chosen, within a radius of 250 m around the star arrays, to test our localization approach. For the localization algorithm, a least square solver was applied to obtain a bearing location from each star array. The final source location was determined by the intersection of the bearings given by each of the two star arrays. Bearing and distance errors were obtained to conduct comparison between the calculated and true (from Global Positioning System) locations. The results indicated that bearing errors were within 1.04º for eight of the test locations; one location had bearing errors slightly larger than expected due to the strong background noise at that position. For the distance errors, six of the test locations were within the range of 1.91 to 32.36 m. The other two test locations were near the intersection line between the centers of the two star arrays, which were expected to have large errors from the theoretical sensitivity analysis performed.

Passive acoustic system, localization, star array,↗

DOE OSTI2019

Bit error protection in cache memories

A computing device having a cache memory (or “cache”) is described, as is a method for operating the cache. The method for operating the cache includes maintaining, in a history record, a representation of a number of bit errors detected in a portion of the cache. When the history record indicates that no bit errors or a single-bit bit error was detected in the portion of the cache memory, the method includes selecting, based on the history record, an error protection to be used for the portion of the cache memory. When the history record indicates that a multi-bit bit error was detected in the portion of the cache memory, the method includes disabling the portion of the cache memory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigating Resilience of Loops in HPC Programs: A Semantic Approach with LLMs

Soft errors have become one of the major concerns for the error resilience of the HPC applications as those errors may cause HPC applications to generate serious outcomes such as silent data corruptions (SDCs). Protecting the applications from soft errors is an essential while challenging task. Among different approaches, obtaining a profound understanding of the resilience proneness of an application is very important to devise efficient error detection and recovery strategies. Given the scale of the HPC applications both in the code size and execution time, there are often cases that the error propagation analysis on such applications would produce a massive volume of unstructured data, which requires a significant amount of efforts, to process and to obtain indicating actions towards error protection. In this paper, we present a control-flow based visual analysis framework to help the users conduct error propagation analysis and identify the critical sections of a program that may have a higher likelihood of leading to erroneous outcomes when affected by the control flow related errors. We also design and implement the scalable visualization framework - ResilienceVis that efficiently and effectively visualizes the affected program states under errors and the propagation traces for an application in a user-friendly manner, and eventually, we combine the analysis and visualization to exhibit the error-proneness of the different sections of applications.

Jiang, Hailong↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying structural errors in cloud condensation nuclei activity from reduced representation of aerosol size distributions

Aerosol effects on clouds and radiation are the dominant contribution to uncertainty in radiative forcing relative to the pre-industrial atmosphere. While previous studies have assessed the impact of parametric uncertainty on modeled forcing, structural errors from the numerical representation of particle distributions have not been well quantified. Here we present a framework for quantifying error in aerosol size distributions and cloud condensation nuclei activity, which we apply to the widely used 4-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4). Box model predictions from the MAM4 are evaluated against the Particle Monte Carlo Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (PartMC-MOSAIC), a benchmark model that tracks the evolution of individual particles. We show that size distributions simulated by MAM4 diverge from those simulated by PartMC-MOSAIC after only a few hours of aging by condensation and coagulation in polluted conditions, which leads to large errors in modeled cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. We find that differences between MAM4 and PartMC-MOSAIC are largest under polluted conditions, where the size distribution evolves rapidly though aging by condensation of semi-volatile substances and coagulation among particles. These findings suggest that structural error in modeled aerosol properties contributes to the large inter-model variability in aerosol radiative forcing.

Fierce, Laura M.↗

DOE OSTI2023

High Impedance Fault Detection Through Quasi-Static State Estimation: A Parameter Error Modeling Approach

This paper presents a model for detecting high impedance faults using parameter error modeling and a two step per-phase weighted-least squares state estimation process. The proposed scheme leverages the use of Phasor Measurement Units and synthetic measurements to identify per-phase power flow and injection measurements which indicate a parameter error through ?2 Hypothesis Testing applied to the composed measurement error. Although current and voltage waveforms are commonly analyzed for high-impedance fault detection, wide area power flow and injection measurements, which are already inherent to the state estimation process, also show promise for real-world high-impedance fault detection applications. The error distributions after detection share the measurement function error spread observed in proven parameter error diagnostics and can be applied to high-impedance fault identification. Further, this error spread across measurement functions related to the fault will be clearly discerned from measurement error. Case studies are performed on the IEEE 33-Bus Distribution System along with the proposed model in Simulink.

Cooper, Austin↗

DOE OSTI2018

An Hp-Adaptive Minimum Action Method Based on a Posteriori Error Estimate

In this work, we develop an hp-adaptive minimum action method (MAM). MAM plays an important role to minimize the Freidlin-Wentzell action functional, which is the central object of the Freidlin-Wentzell theory of large deviations for transitions induced by small random perturbations. Because of the demanding computation cost, especially in spatially extended systems, numerical efficiency is a critical issue for MAM. Difficulties come from discretizations of both time and space. One hurdle for the application of MAM to large scale systems is the global reparametrization in time direction, which is required by most versions of MAM. We recently introduced a new version of MAM in [25], called tMAM, where we used some simple heuristic criteria to demonstrate that tMAM can be effectively coupled with h-adaptivity. The target of this paper is to integrate hp-adaptivity into tMAM using a posterior error estimation techniques. More specifically, we use the arc length constraint given by geometric minimum action method (gMAM) to define an indicator of the effect of linear time scaling in tMAM, and the derivative recovery technique to construct an error indicator and a regularity indicator for hp-refinement. Numerical results are presented.

Wan, Xiaoliang↗

DOE OSTI2015

Motoneuron axon pathfinding errors in zebrafish: Differential effects related to concentration and timing of nicotine exposure

Nicotine exposure during embryonic stages of development can affect many neurodevelopmental processes. In the developing zebrafish, exposure to nicotine was reported to cause axonal pathfinding errors in the later born secondary motoneurons (SMNs). These alterations in SMN axon morphology coincided with muscle degeneration at high nicotine concentrations (15–30 μM). Previous work showed that the paralytic mutant zebrafish known as sofa potato exhibited nicotine-induced effects onto SMN axons at these high concentrations but in the absence of any muscle deficits, indicating that pathfinding errors could occur independent of muscle effects. In this study, we used varying concentrations of nicotine at different developmental windows of exposure to specifically isolate its effects onto subpopulations of motoneuron axons. We found that nicotine exposure can affect SMN axon morphology in a dose-dependent manner. At low concentrations of nicotine, SMN axons exhibited pathfinding errors, in the absence of any nicotine-induced muscle abnormalities. Moreover, the nicotine exposure paradigms used affected the 3 subpopulations of SMN axons differently, but the dorsal projecting SMN axons were primarily affected. We then identified morphologically distinct pathfinding errors that best described the nicotine-induced effects on dorsal projecting SMN axons. To test whether SMN pathfinding was potentially influenced by alterations in the early born primary motoneuron (PMN), we performed dual labeling studies, where both PMN and SMN axons were simultaneously labeled with antibodies. We show that only a subset of the SMN axon pathfinding errors coincided with abnormal PMN axonal targeting in nicotine-exposed zebrafish. We conclude that nicotine exposure can exert differential effects depending on the levels of nicotine and developmental exposure window. - Highlights: • Embryonic nicotine exposure can specifically affect secondary motoneuron axons in a dose-dependent manner. • The nicotine-induced secondary motoneuron axonal pathfinding errors can occur independent of any muscle fiber alterations. • Nicotine exposure primarily affects dorsal projecting secondary motoneurons axons. • Nicotine-induced primary motoneuron axon pathfinding errors can influence secondary motoneuron axon morphology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2011

Lightweight and Statistical Techniques for Petascale Debugging: Correctness on Petascale Systems (CoPS) Preliminry Report

Petascale platforms with O(10{sup 5}) and O(10{sup 6}) processing cores are driving advancements in a wide range of scientific disciplines. These large systems create unprecedented application development challenges. Scalable correctness tools are critical to shorten the time-to-solution on these systems. Currently, many DOE application developers use primitive manual debugging based on printf or traditional debuggers such as TotalView or DDT. This paradigm breaks down beyond a few thousand cores, yet bugs often arise above that scale. Programmers must reproduce problems in smaller runs to analyze them with traditional tools, or else perform repeated runs at scale using only primitive techniques. Even when traditional tools run at scale, the approach wastes substantial effort and computation cycles. Continued scientific progress demands new paradigms for debugging large-scale applications. The Correctness on Petascale Systems (CoPS) project is developing a revolutionary debugging scheme that will reduce the debugging problem to a scale that human developers can comprehend. The scheme can provide precise diagnoses of the root causes of failure, including suggestions of the location and the type of errors down to the level of code regions or even a single execution point. Our fundamentally new strategy combines and expands three relatively new complementary debugging approaches. The Stack Trace Analysis Tool (STAT), a 2011 R&D 100 Award Winner, identifies behavior equivalence classes in MPI jobs and highlights behavior when elements of the class demonstrate divergent behavior, often the first indicator of an error. The Cooperative Bug Isolation (CBI) project has developed statistical techniques for isolating programming errors in widely deployed code that we will adapt to large-scale parallel applications. Finally, we are developing a new approach to parallelizing expensive correctness analyses, such as analysis of memory usage in the Memgrind tool. In the first two years of the project, we have successfully extended STAT to determine the relative progress of different MPI processes. We have shown that the STAT, which is now included in the debugging tools distributed by Cray with their large-scale systems, substantially reduces the scale at which traditional debugging techniques are applied. We have extended CBI to large-scale systems and developed new compiler based analyses that reduce its instrumentation overhead. Our results demonstrate that CBI can identify the source of errors in large-scale applications. Finally, we have developed MPIecho, a new technique that will reduce the time required to perform key correctness analyses, such as the detection of writes to unallocated memory. Overall, our research results are the foundations for new debugging paradigms that will improve application scientist productivity by reducing the time to determine which package or module contains the root cause of a problem that arises at all scales of our high end systems. While we have made substantial progress in the first two years of CoPS research, significant work remains. While STAT provides scalable debugging assistance for incorrect application runs, we could apply its techniques to assertions in order to observe deviations from expected behavior. Further, we must continue to refine STAT's techniques to represent behavioral equivalence classes efficiently as we expect systems with millions of threads in the next year. We are exploring new CBI techniques that can assess the likelihood that execution deviations from past behavior are the source of erroneous execution. Finally, we must develop usable correctness analyses that apply the MPIecho parallelization strategy in order to locate coding errors. We expect to make substantial progress on these directions in the next year but anticipate that significant work will remain to provide usable, scalable debugging paradigms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Galerkin Neural Networks: A Framework for Approximating Variational Equations with Error Control

Herein, we present a new approach to using neural networks to approximate the solutions of variational equations, based on the adaptive construction of a sequence of finite-dimensional sub-spaces whose basis functions are realizations of a sequence of neural networks. Here, the finite-dimensional subspaces are then used to define a standard Galerkin approximation of the variational equation. This approach enjoys a number of advantages, including: the sequential nature of the algorithm offers a systematic approach to enhancing the accuracy of a given approximation; the sequential enhancements provide a useful indicator for the error that can be used as a criterion for terminating the sequential updates; the basic approach is largely oblivious to the nature of the partial differential equation under consideration; and, some basic theoretical results are presented regarding the convergence (or otherwise) of the method which are used to formulate basic guidelines for applying the method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Error quantification and comparison of binary neutron star gravitational waveforms from numerical relativity codes

Future gravitational wave detections of merging binary neutron star systems have the possibility to tightly constrain the equation of state of dense nuclear matter. In order to extract such constraints, gravitational waveform models need to be calibrated to accurate numerical relativity simulations of the late inspiral and merger. In this work, we take an essential step toward classifying the error and potential systematics in current generation numerical relativity simulations of merging binary neutron stars. To this end, we perform a direct comparison of two codes (fil, spec), which differ in many aspects, including the numerical methods and discretizations used and equations solved. We find that despite these different approaches, the codes are—within current numerical resolution bounds—fully consistent, and broadly comparable in cost for a given accuracy level. Our results indicate that the error in the waveforms is primarily dominated by the hydrodynamic evolution, consistent with earlier findings in the literature. Finally, we also discuss current limitations and cost estimates for numerical relativity simulations to reach the accuracies required in the era of next-generation gravitational detectors.

gravitational waves↗

DOE OSTI2026

Computationally inexpensive part-scale thermal history of additive friction-stir deposition

This study presents an analytical model for steady-state power generation and tool heat loss in additive friction-stir deposition (AFSD), developed to enable part-scale thermal simulation while remaining computationally inexpensive. The model predicts total generated power, yielding 3.7–4.7 kW across deposition temperature setpoints of 400–460 °C for the deposition of AA6061 with a Be-Cu tool. This corresponds to 90–95% of the reported spindle power. Tool heat loss is experimentally determined by calibrating a steady-state energy balance between the generated power, the substrate-deposition thermal gradient, and a temperature dependent tool heat loss term: q tool (T) = a + b (T - 400°C) with a = 2.7 x 10 6 Wm -2 and b = 9.5 x 10 3 Wm -2 K -1 . The calibration indicates that about 69% of the generated heat is conducted into the tool for this configuration, which is much higher than previously reported. The calibrated heat-source is implemented in finite element software (Adamantine) to simulate the transient thermal history of a 100 cm 3 representative build in 8 min on a standard desktop (at 0.635 mm build-height resolution). For the first three layers, the substrate temperatures between simulation and experiment are within 10% mean absolute percentage error. Sensitivity analysis indicates that uncertainties in average deposition temperature and deformation localization (stir-zone geometry, depth, and spatial dependance of strain-rate and flow stress) dominate model variance, motivating additional experimental verification.

Additive Friction-Stir Deposition↗

DOE OSTI2016

Self-calibration performance in stereoscopic PIV acquired in a transonic wind tunnel

Three stereoscopic PIV experiments have been examined to test the effectiveness of self-calibration under varied circumstances. Furthermore, we our measurements taken in a streamwise plane yielded a robust self-calibration that returned common results regardless of the specific calibration procedure, but measurements in the crossplane exhibited substantial velocity bias errors whose nature was sensitive to the particulars of the self-calibration approach. Self-calibration is complicated by thick laser sheets and large stereoscopic camera angles and further exacerbated by small particle image diameters and high particle seeding density. In spite of the different answers obtained by varied self-calibrations, each implementation locked onto an apparently valid solution with small residual disparity and converged adjustment of the calibration plane. Thus, the convergence of self-calibration on a solution with small disparity is not sufficient to indicate negligible velocity error due to the stereo calibration.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗