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Disturbance and the Carbon Balance of US Forests: A Quantitative Review of Impacts from Harvests, Fires, Insects, and Droughts

Disturbances are a major determinant of forest carbon stocks and uptake. They generally reduce land carbon stocks but also initiate a regrowth legacy that contributes substantially to the contemporary rate of carbon stock increase in US forestlands. As managers and policy makers increasingly look to forests for climate protection and mitigation, and because of increasing concern about changes in disturbance intensity and frequency, there is a need for synthesis and integration of current understanding about the role of disturbances and other processes in governing forest carbon cycle dynamics, and the likely future of this and other sinks for atmospheric carbon. This paper aims to address that need by providing a quantitative review of the distribution, extent and carbon impacts of the major disturbances active in the US. We also review recent trends in disturbances, climate, and other global environmental changes and consider their individual and collective contributions to the US carbon budget now and in the likely future. Lastly, we identify some key challenges and opportunities for future research needed to improve current understanding, advance predictive capabilities, and inform forest management in the face of these pressures. Harvest is found to be the most extensive disturbance both in terms of area and carbon impacts, followed by fire, windthrow and bark beetles, and lastly droughts. Collectively these lead to the gross loss of about 200 Tg C y(exp -1) in live biomass annually across the conterminous US. At the same time, the net change in forest carbon stocks is positive (190 Tg C y(exp -1)), indicating not only forest resilience but also an apparently large response to growth enhancements such as fertilization by CO2 and nitrogen. Uncertainty about disturbance legacies, disturbance interactions, likely trends, and global change factors make the future of the US forest carbon sink unclear. While there is scope for management to enhance carbon sinks in US forests, tradeoffs with other values and uses are likely to significantly limit practical implementation. Continued and expanded remote sensing and field-based monitoring capabilities and manipulative experimentation are needed to improve understanding of the US forest carbon sink, and assess how disturbance processes are responding to the pressures of global environmental change. In addition, continued development and application of holistic, decision support tools that consider a range of forest values are needed to enable managers and policy makers to use the best available information for guiding forest resources now and into the future.

Williams, Christopher A.↗

Robust Semantic Mapping and Localization on a Free-Flying Robot in Microgravity

We propose a system that uses semantic object detections to localize a microgravity free-flyer. Many applications require absolute localization in a known reference frame, such as the execution of waypoint trajectories defined by human operators. Classical geometric methods build a map of point features, which may not be able to be associated after lighting or environmental changes. By contrast, semantics remain invariant to changes up to the robustness of the detection algorithm and motion of the semantic objects. In this work, we describe our approaches for both offline semantic map generation as well as online localization against a semantic map, intended to run in real-time on the robot. We additionally demonstrate how our semantic localizer outperforms image-feature matching in some cases, and show the robustness of the algorithm to environmental changes. Crucially, we show in our experiments that when semantics are used to supplement point features, localization is always improved. To our knowledge, these experiments demonstrate the first use of learned semantics for localization on a free-flying robot in microgravity.

Localization↗

Anomaly Recovery and the Mars Exploration Rovers

The premise of the design of operations for the Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) is that the vehicles will drive each day. As a result, they will encounter some aspect of the terrain environment that cannot be anticipated or otherwise accommodated by the sequences linked onboard that day. The operations team then must correct the problem by planning then commanding the execution of a different drive the next day. Often other aspects of the operation on the surface of Mars: environmental changes, component degradation, errors in sequence design or execution, etc., lead to anomalies which must be addressed before normal operations can resume. The operational design that makes it possible to recover from a driving error each day also reduces the time needed to recover from anomalies. As an example of the efficiency achieved, less than 5% (about 30 sols out of 700 sols of operations) of the time on the surface has been devoted to recovery from anomalies for each vehicle. In this paper the major anomalies experienced by the MER rovers will be recounted and the streamlined approaches to addressing these problems described. The operational flexibility developed for these missions is also a function of the system design that anticipated a number of likely faults and conditions arising from uncertainty in sequence execution and environmental change. This design will be described as well as the considerations in operation that motivated this design. These considerations will likely be present in any future surface mission.

rovers↗

The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, Ocean Ecosystem (Pace) Mission Overview: From Concept to Launch

Abstract for Technical Review: The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission is a strategic climate continuity mission that was defined in the 2010 document Responding to the Challenge of Climate and Environmental Change: NASA’s Plan for Climate-Centric Architecture for Earth Observations and Applications from Space (referred to as the “Climate Initiative”). Launched in February 2024, the PACE mission represents NASA’s next investment in ocean biology, clouds, and aerosol data records. PACE will extend the high quality ocean ecological, ocean biogeochemical, cloud, and aerosol particle data records begun by NASA in the 1990s, building on the exceptional heritages of the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). NASA Headquarters directed the mission development and implementation to the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) with guidance to utilize a Design-to-Cost (DTC) process. Mission studies were conducted to define appropriate approaches within and across elements while maximizing science capabilities at a high cost confidence. Mission baseline requirements development is also embedded within the DTC process, as these requirements were not established at the onset of the mission concept development. The PACE project office at NASA’s GSFC was responsible for the satellite development, launch and commissioning. The NASA Headquarters PACE Program Science office is responsible for supporting the science data processing system and assembling competed community science teams, which includes field-based vicarious calibration and data product validation efforts to support the PACE Project Science team. The PACE observatory is comprised of three instruments, the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI) and two polarimeters, the Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter 2 (HARP2) and the Spectro-Polarimeter for Exploration (SPEXone) and the PACE spacecraft. The observatory has been commissioned and is performing on-orbit science data collection operations. Summary for Program: The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission is a strategic climate continuity mission that was defined in the 2010 document Responding to the Challenge of Climate and Environmental Change: NASA’s Plan for Climate-Centric Architecture for Earth Observations and Applications from Space (referred to as the “Climate Initiative”). Launched in February 2024 under the leadership of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the PACE mission represents NASA’s next investment in ocean biology, clouds, and aerosol data records. PACE will extend the high quality ocean ecological, ocean biogeochemical, cloud, and aerosol particle data records begun by NASA in the 1990s. The PACE observatory is comprised of the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI), the Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter 2 (HARP2) and the Spectro-Polarimeter for Exploration (SPEXone), along with the PACE spacecraft.

Robert H Estep, Jr↗

Mission Overview and Status from Concept to Launch

The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission is a strategic climate continuity mission that was defined in the 2010 document Responding to the Challenge of Climate and Environmental Change: NASA’s Plan for Climate-Centric Architecture for Earth Observations and Applications from Space (referred to as the “Climate Initiative”). Launched in February 2024, the PACE mission represents NASA’s next investment in ocean biology, clouds, and aerosol data records. PACE will extend the high quality ocean ecological, ocean biogeochemical, cloud, and aerosol particle data records begun by NASA in the 1990s, building on the exceptional heritages of the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). NASA Headquarters directed the mission development and implementation to the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) with guidance to utilize a Design-to-Cost (DTC) process. Mission studies were conducted to define appropriate approaches within and across elements while maximizing science capabilities at a high cost confidence. Mission baseline requirements development is also embedded within the DTC process, as these requirements were not established at the onset of the mission concept development. The PACE project office at NASA’s GSFC was responsible for the satellite development, launch and commissioning. The NASA Headquarters PACE Program Science office is responsible for supporting the science data processing system and assembling competed community science teams, which includes field-based vicarious calibration and data product validation efforts to support the PACE Project Science team. The PACE observatory is comprised of three instruments, the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI) and two polarimeters, the Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter 2 (HARP2) and the Spectro-Polarimeter for Exploration (SPEXone) and the PACE spacecraft. The observatory has been commissioned and is performing on-orbit science data collection operations. Summary for Program: The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission is a strategic climate continuity mission that was defined in the 2010 document Responding to the Challenge of Climate and Environmental Change: NASA’s Plan for Climate-Centric Architecture for Earth Observations and Applications from Space (referred to as the “Climate Initiative”). Launched in February 2024 under the leadership of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the PACE mission represents NASA’s next investment in ocean biology, clouds, and aerosol data records. PACE will extend the high quality ocean ecological, ocean biogeochemical, cloud, and aerosol particle data records begun by NASA in the 1990s. The PACE observatory is comprised of the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI), the Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter 2 (HARP2) and the Spectro-Polarimeter for Exploration (SPEXone), along with the PACE spacecraft.

Robby Estep↗

Visual analysis of fluid dynamics at NASA's numerical aerodynamic simulation facility

A study aimed at describing and illustrating visualization tools used in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and indicating how these tools are likely to change by showing a projected resolution of the human computer interface is presented. The following are outlined using a graphically based test format: the revolution of human computer environments for CFD research; comparison of current environments; current environments with the ideal; predictions for the future CFD environments; what can be done to accelerate the improvements. The following comments are given: when acquiring visualization tools, potential rapid changes must be considered; environmental changes over the next ten years due to human computer interface cannot be fathomed; data flow packages such as AVS, apE, Explorer and Data Explorer are easy to learn and use for small problems, excellent for prototyping, but not so efficient for large problems; the approximation techniques used in visualization software must be appropriate for the data; it has become more cost effective to move jobs that fit on workstations and run only memory intensive jobs on the supercomputer; use of three dimensional skills will be maximized when the three dimensional environment is built in from the start.

Watson, Velvin R.↗

Monitoring Oceanic Islands Via Radarsat Imaging Radar

Oceanic islands represent an often overlooked aspect of the land surface of Earth, yet they are sensitive, natural laboratories for investigating the impacts of environmental change on landscapes and land-cover systems. For this reason, we have utilized the Canadian Space Agency's RADARSAT satellite to initiate a program for monitoring the landscapes of approximately 20 oceanic islands as part of the RADARSAT Background Mission. To date, we have analyzed high resolution SAR images of 12 islands that extend from the Arctic, throughout the Atlantic and Southern Indian oceans, and into the equatorial Pacific. We have selected islands for monitoring on the basis of their known or suspected history of landscape change in association with environmental factors or anthropogenic effects.

Garvin, James B.↗

Merging IceSAT GLAS and Terra MODIS Data in Order to Derive Forest Type Specific Tree Heights in the Central Siberian Boreal Forest

Mapping of boreal forest's type, biomass, and other structural parameters are critical for understanding of the boreal forest's significance in the carbon cycle, its response to and impact on global climate change. We believe the nature of the forest structure information available from MISR and GLAS can be used to help identify forest type, age class, and estimate above ground biomass levels beyond that now possible with MODIS alone. The ground measurements will be used to develop relationships between remote sensing observables and forest characteristics and provide new information for understanding forest changes with respect to environmental change. Lidar is a laser altimeter that determines the distance from the instrument to the physical surface by measuring the time elapsed between the pulse emission and the reflected return. Other studies have shown that the returned signal may identify multiple returns originating from trees, building and other objects and permits the calculation of their height. Studies using field data have shown that lidar data can provide estimates of structural parameters such as biomass, stand volume and leaf area index and allows remarkable differentiation between primary and secondary forest. NASA's IceSAT Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) was launched in January 2003 and collected data during February and September of that year. This study used data acquired over our study sites in central Siberia to examine the GLAS signal as a source of forest height and other structural characteristics. The purpose of our Siberia project is to improve forest cover maps and produce above-ground biomass maps of the boreal forest in Northern Eurasia from MODIS by incorporating structural information inherent in the Terra MISR and ICESAT Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) instruments. A number of forest cover classifications exist for the boreal forest. We believe the limiting factor in these products is the lack of structural information, particularly in the vertical dimension. The emphasis of this project is to improve upon satellite maps of boreal forest structure parameters (i.e. height and biomass) using temporal, multi-angle, and vertical profile information of GLAS data. The existing and near future lidar data is useful for demonstrating these techniques and pursuing current estimates. Future lidar missions may be several years in the future, so we will work other new data sets that may aide in biomass estimates such as ALOS PALSAR We will continue this work to produce an accurate map of current above ground forest phytomass/carbon storage possible for the study area. We plan to develop, test, and integrate remote sensing methods for extracting forest canopy structure measures. We are compiling our field measurements and will compare them with the remote sensing methods where possible. We also be able to produce a realistic error bound on the remotely sensed carbon estimates.

Ranson, K. Jon↗

Shorebird Migration Patterns in Response to Climate Change: A Modeling Approach

The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies offer new opportunities for the application of mechanistic models to predict how continental scale bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier studies, we explored the phenotypic plasticity of a migratory population of Pectoral sandpipers by simulating the movement patterns of an ensemble of 10,000 individual birds in response to changes in stopover locations as an indicator of the impacts of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory shorebirds. We used an individual based, biophysical migration model, driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data, and biological field data. Mean stop-over durations and stop-over frequency with latitude predicted from our model for nominal cases were consistent with results reported in the literature and available field data. In this study, we take advantage of new computing capabilities enabled by recent GP-GPU computing paradigms and commodity hardware (general purchase computing on graphics processing units). Several aspects of our individual based (agent modeling) approach lend themselves well to GP-GPU computing. We have been able to allocate compute-intensive tasks to the graphics processing units, and now simulate ensembles of 400,000 birds at varying spatial resolutions along the central North American flyway. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect the processes underlying bird phenotypic plasticity responses to different climate change scenarios in the central U.S.

Smith, James A.↗

Microbial trace fossils in Antarctica and the search for evidence of early life on Mars

It is possible to hypothesize that, if microbial life evolved on early Mars, fossil remnants of these organisms may be preserved on the surface. However, the cooling and drying of Mars probably resembled a cold desert and such an environment is not suitable for the process of fossilization. The frigid Ross Desert of Antarctica is probably the closest terrestrial analog to conditions that may have prevailed on the surface of the cooling and drying Mars. In this desert, cryptoendolithic microbial communities live in the airspaces of porous rocks, the last habitable niche in a hostile outside environment. The organisms produce characteristic chemical and physical changes in the rock substrate. Environmental changes (deterioration of conditions) may result in the death of the community. Although no cellular structures are fossilized, the conspicuous changes in the rock substrate are preserved as trace fossils. Likewise, microbial trace fossils (without cellular structures) may also be preserved on Mars: Discontinuities in structure or chemistry of the rock that are independent of physical or chemical gradients may be of biological origin. Ross Desert trace fossils can be used as a model for planning search strategies and for instrument design to find evidence of past Martian life.

Friedmann, E. Imre↗

Satellite Ocean Color Sensor Design Concepts and Performance Requirements

In late 1978, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) launched the Nimbus-7 satellite with the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) and several other sensors, all of which provided major advances in Earth remote sensing. The inspiration for the CZCS is usually attributed to an article in Science by Clarke et al. who demonstrated that large changes in open ocean spectral reflectance are correlated to chlorophyll-a concentrations. Chlorophyll-a is the primary photosynthetic pigment in green plants (marine and terrestrial) and is used in estimating primary production, i.e., the amount of carbon fixed into organic matter during photosynthesis. Thus, accurate estimates of global and regional primary production are key to studies of the earth's carbon cycle. Because the investigators used an airborne radiometer, they were able to demonstrate the increased radiance contribution of the atmosphere with altitude that would be a major issue for spaceborne measurements. Since 1978, there has been much progress in satellite ocean color remote sensing such that the technique is well established and is used for climate change science and routine operational environmental monitoring. Also, the science objectives and accompanying methodologies have expanded and evolved through a succession of global missions, e.g., the Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor (OCTS), the Seaviewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS), and the Global Imager (GLI). With each advance in science objectives, new and more stringent requirements for sensor capabilities (e.g., spectral coverage) and performance (e.g., signal-to-noise ratio, SNR) are established. The CZCS had four bands for chlorophyll and aerosol corrections. The Ocean Color Imager (OCI) recommended for the NASA Pre-Aerosol, Cloud, and Ocean Ecosystems (PACE) mission includes 5 nanometers hyperspectral coverage from 350 to 800 nanometers with three additional discrete near infrared (NIR) and shortwave infrared (SWIR) ocean aerosol correction bands. Also, to avoid drift in sensor sensitivity from being interpreted as environmental change, climate change research requires rigorous monitoring of sensor stability. For SeaWiFS, monthly lunar imaging accurately tracked stability at an accuracy of approximately 0.1% that allowed the data to be used for climate studies [2]. It is now acknowledged by the international community that future missions and sensor designs need to accommodate lunar calibrations. An overview of ocean color remote sensing and a review of the progress made in ocean color remote sensing and the variety of research applications derived from global satellite ocean color data are provided. The purpose of this chapter is to discuss the design options for ocean color satellite radiometers, performance and testing criteria, and sensor components (optics, detectors, electronics, etc.) that must be integrated into an instrument concept. These ultimately dictate the quality and quantity of data that can be delivered as a trade against mission cost. Historically, science and sensor technology have advanced in a "leap-frog" manner in that sensor design requirements for a mission are defined many years before a sensor is launched and by the end of the mission, perhaps 15-20 years later, science applications and requirements are well beyond the capabilities of the sensor. Section 3 provides a summary of historical mission science objectives and sensor requirements. This progression is expected to continue in the future as long as sensor costs can be constrained to affordable levels and still allow the incorporation of new technologies without incurring unacceptable risk to mission success. The IOCCG Report Number 13 discusses future ocean biology mission Level-1 requirements in depth.

Ocean Color↗

Comprehensive Analysis of Thirty Years of Land Change in Georgia: Forest Degradation, Land-Use Patterns, and Drivers

In this talk, we present results from a study, funded by the NASA Land-Cover and Land-Use Change program, of thirty years of environmental change in the country of Georgia. The country, a former Soviet Union Republic, has experienced more political, economic and social change in the last 30 years than most countries. But the environmental implications of these extreme events remain largely unknown – the region is understudied, no national forest inventory has been completed in 20 years, and previous research in the area conducted by the authors were not successful. The latter statement is because of forest degradation. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, much of the forestry infrastructure broke down and people resorted to chopping down individual trees. The result was in many parts of the country a reduction in forest biomass but not to the point of a change in land cover. This type of forest degradation, which was either gradual over decades or abrupt, could not be readily identified using the methods and data at our disposal at the time. In the recent study, we had full access to the Landsat archive in combination with computing power. By using monitoring methods that are based on time series analysis, we were able to capture and identify the gradual processes driven by small scale activities that are so characteristic of the post-Soviet Georgian landscape. We developed an approach (“CCDC-SMA”) that combines time series analysis and spectral mixture analysis running on Google Earth Engine for monitoring abrupt and gradual forest degradation. By using this approach, we found that forest degradation was significantly larger than the area estimate of deforestation; 3,541 ± 556 km2 (11% of the forest area in 1987) compared to 158 ± 98 km2 from 1987 to 2020. The prevailing narrative is that legal and illegal cutting of trees for fuelwood is primarily responsible for this process. Yet, since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the country has undergone rapid socioeconomic and institutional changes which have not been explored as drivers of forest change. To further our understanding of the underlying causes, we combined forest disturbance estimates, Georgian statistical data, and historical institutional change data to examine socioeconomic drivers of forest degradation. We found that higher winter temperature and drought were associated with higher degradation at the regional scale, while major institutional changes and drought were associated with higher forest degradation at the national level. Access to natural gas, the major energy alternative to fuelwood, had no significant association with degradation. Our results challenge the narrative that poverty and a lack of alternative energy infrastructure drive forest degradation and suggest that government policies banning household fuelwood cutting, including the new Forest Code of 2020, may not reduce forest degradation. Given these results, improved data on wood harvesting and more research on the commercial drivers of degradation and their links to economic and political reforms is needed to better inform forest policy in the region, especially given ongoing risks from climate change.

Pontus Olofsson↗

Ecological Forecasting in the Applied Sciences Program and Input to the Decadal Survey

Ecological forecasting uses knowledge of physics, ecology and physiology to predict how ecosystems will change in the future in response to environmental factors. Further, Ecological Forecasting employs observations and models to predict the effects of environmental change on ecosystems. In doing so, it applies information from the physical, biological, and social sciences and promotes a scientific synthesis across the domains of physics, geology, chemistry, biology, and psychology. The goal is reliable forecasts that allow decision makers access to science-based tools in order to project changes in living systems. The next decadal survey will direct the development Earth Observation sensors and satellites for the next ten years. It is important that these new sensors and satellites address the requirements for ecosystem models, imagery, and other data for resource management. This presentation will give examples of these model inputs and some resources needed for NASA to continue effective Ecological Forecasting.

Ecology↗

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

Krause, A.↗

Role of forest regrowth in global carbon sink dynamics

Although the existence of a large carbon sink in terrestrial ecosystems is well-established, the drivers of this sink remain uncertain. It has been suggested that perturbations to forest demography caused by past land-use change, management, and natural disturbances may be causing a large component of current carbon uptake. Here we use a global compilation of forest age observations, combined with a terrestrial biosphere model with explicit modeling of forest regrowth, to partition the global forest carbon sink between old-growth and regrowth stands over the period 1981–2010. For 2001–2010 we find a carbon sink of 0.85 (0.66–0.96) Pg/year located in intact old-growth forest, primarily in the moist tropics and boreal Siberia, and 1.30 (1.03–1.96) Pg/year located in stands regrowing after past disturbance. Approaching half of the sink in regrowth stands would have occurred from demographic changes alone, in the absence of other environmental changes. These age-constrained results show consistency with those simulated using an ensemble of demographically-enabled terrestrial biosphere models following an independent reconstruction of historical land use and management. We estimate that forests will accumulate an additional 69 (44–131) Pg C in live biomass from changes in demography alone if natural disturbances, wood harvest, and reforestation continue at rates comparable to those during 1981–2010. Our results confirm that it is not possible to understand the current global terrestrial carbon sink without accounting for the sizeable sink due to forest demography. They also imply that a large portion of the current terrestrial carbon sink is strictly transient in nature.

forest↗

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

land use change↗

Environmental Regulations as Drivers of Materials Obsolescence

This slide presentation reviews the operations of the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC-PC) and the impact of environmental regulations in making some materials obsolete. The center is NASA's resource for identifying and managing risks associated with changing environmental regulations. To this end the center acts as an regulatory early warning system, to review track and analyze emerging regulations, collaborate with the technical community on regulatory risk analysis and interpretation and to represent NASA's interests to the regulatory agencies. Regulations frequently result in making some materials unavailable forcing a change to another material. Processes may also be changed due to environmental regulations. For example some items that were sprayed with a chemical may now have to be painted or dipped with the chemical. Sometimes a regulation changes the use of a certain product, which does not affect the usage on Earth, but has significant implications in space. An example of this is the use of lead-free solders of basically tin, which don't appear to have any problem on Earth, but in space applications tin whiskers have resulted in several confirmed satellite failures.

Scroggins, Sharon↗