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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Using Convolutional Neural Network to Emulate Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract It has been widely recognized that tropical cyclone (TC) genesis requires favorable large‐scale environmental conditions. Based on these linkages, numerous efforts have been made to establish an empirical relationship between seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental favorability in a quantitative way, which lead to conceptual functions such as the TC genesis index. However, due to the limited amount of reliable TC observations and complexity of the climate system, a simple analytic function may not be an accurate portrait of the empirical relationship between TCs and their ambiences. In this research, we use convolution neural networks (CNNs) to disentangle this complex relationship. To circumvent the limited amount of seasonal TC observation records, we implement transfer‐learning technique to train ensemble of CNNs first on suites of high‐resolution climate model simulations with realistic seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental conditions, and then on a state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis from 1950 to 2019. The trained CNNs can well reproduce the historical TC records and yields significant seasonal prediction skills when the large‐scale environmental inputs are provided by operational climate forecasts. Furthermore, by inputting the ensemble CNNs with 20th century reanalysis products and Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations, we investigated TC variability and its changes in the past and future climates. Specifically, our ensemble CNNs project a decreasing trend of global mean TC activity in the future warming scenario, which is consistent with our future projections using high‐resolution climate model.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tropical Interbasin Interaction as Effective Predictors of Late-Spring Precipitation Variability in the Southern Great Plains

Abstract The southern Great Plains experience fluctuating precipitation extremes that significantly impact agriculture and water management. Despite ongoing efforts to enhance forecast accuracy, the underlying causes of these climatic phenomena remain inadequately understood. This study elucidates the relative influence of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins on April–May–June precipitation variability in this region. Our partial ocean assimilation experiments using the Community Earth System Model unveil the prominent role of interbasin interaction, with the Pacific and Atlantic contributing approximately 70% and 30%, respectively, to these interbasin contrasts. Our statistical analyses suggest that these tropical interbasin contrasts could serve as a more reliable indicator for late-spring precipitation anomalies than El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The conclusions are reinforced by analyses of seven climate forecasting systems within the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, offering an optimistic outlook for enhancing real-time forecasting of late-spring precipitation in the southern plains. However, the current predictive skills of the interbasin contrasts across the prediction systems are hindered by the lower predictability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, pointing to the need for future research to refine climate prediction models further. Significance Statement Agriculture and infrastructure in the southern plains face challenges from severe late-spring precipitation extremes. Traditional predictors like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lose effectiveness during the critical spring-to-summer transition, creating a forecasting gap. This study introduces the concept of tropical interbasin interactions, known to enhance seasonal predictability for late-spring precipitation in the southern plains. Novel climate model experiments highlight contributions from the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, offering a promising predictability that potentially surpasses the limitations of ENSO-based predictions. These outcomes hold the potential for developing operational forecasts of late-spring precipitation anomalies in the southern plains, enabling proactive risk management.

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu↗
DOE OSTI2020

Long short-term memory embedded nudging schemes for nonlinear data assimilation of geophysical flows

Reduced rank nonlinear filters are increasingly utilized in data assimilation of geophysical flows, but often require a set of ensemble forward simulations to estimate forecast covariance. On the other hand, predictor-corrector type nudging approaches are still attractive due to their simplicity of implementation when more complex methods need to be avoided. However, optimal estimate of nudging gain matrix might be cumbersome. In this paper, we put forth a fully nonintrusive recurrent neural network approach based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) embedding architecture to estimate the nudging term, which plays a role not only to force the state trajectories to the observations but also acts as a stabilizer. Furthermore, our approach relies on the power of archival data and the trained model can be retrained effectively due to power of transfer learning in any neural network applications. In order to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach, we perform twin experiments using Lorenz 96 system. Our results demonstrate that the proposed LSTM nudging approach yields more accurate estimates than both extended Kalman filter (EKF) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) when only sparse observations are available. With the availability of emerging AI-friendly and modular hardware technologies and heterogeneous computing platforms, we articulate that our simplistic nudging framework turns out to be computationally more efficient than either the EKF or EnKF approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Short-term solar radiation forecast using total sky imager via transfer learning

Ground-based sky cameras, which capture hemispherical images, have been extensively used for localized monitoring of clouds. This paper proposes a short-term forecasting approach based on transfer learning using Total Sky-Imager (TSI) images of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site obtained from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) dataset. An accurate estimation of solar irradiance using TSI is key for short-term solar energy generation forecasting and optimal energy consumption planning. We make use of deep neural network architectures such as AlexNet and ResNet-101 to extract the underlying deep convolution features from TSI images and then train using an ensemble learning approach to model and forecast solar radiation. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach by showcasing the best and worst cases. Thus, the transfer learning approach significantly reduces the time and resources required for modeling solar radiation. We outperform with reference to another state-of-art technique for solar modeling using TSI images at different forecast lead times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A meta-learning based distribution system load forecasting model selection framework

This paper presents a meta-learning based, automatic distribution system load forecasting model selection framework. Furthermore, the framework includes the following processes: feature extraction, candidate model preparation and labeling, offline training, and online model recommendation. Using load forecasting needs and data characteristics as input features, multiple metalearners are used to rank the candidate load forecast models based on their forecasting accuracy. Then, a scoring-voting mechanism is proposed to weights recommendations from each meta-leaner and make the final recommendations. Heterogeneous load forecasting tasks with different temporal and technical requirements at different load aggregation levels are set up to train, validate, and test the performance of the proposed framework. Simulation results demonstrate that the performance of the meta-learning based approach is satisfactory in both seen and unseen forecasting tasks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reduced-order autodifferentiable ensemble Kalman filters

This paper introduces a computational framework to reconstruct and forecast a partially observed state that evolves according to an unknown or expensive-to-simulate dynamical system. Our reduced-order autodifferentiable ensemble Kalman filters (ROAD-EnKFs) learn a latent low-dimensional surrogate model for the dynamics and a decoder that maps from the latent space to the state space. The learned dynamics and decoder are then used within an EnKF to reconstruct and forecast the state. Numerical experiments show that if the state dynamics exhibit a hidden low-dimensional structure, ROAD-EnKFs achieve higher accuracy at lower computational cost compared to existing methods. If such structure is not expressed in the latent state dynamics, ROAD-EnKFs achieve similar accuracy at lower cost, making them a promising approach for surrogate state reconstruction and forecasting.

Mathematics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Popnet : computer vision based deep learning model for forecasting gridded population

Here, this study introduces Popnet, a deep learning model for forecasting 1 km-gridded populations, integrating U-Net, ConvLSTM, a Spatial Autocorrelation module and deep ensemble methods. Using spatial variables and population data from 2000 to 2020, Popnet predicts South Korea’s population trends by age groups (under 14, 15-64 and over 65) up to 2040. In validation, it outperforms traditional machine learning and state-of-the-art computer vision models. The output of this model discovered significant polarisation: population growth in urban areas, especially the capital region, and severe depopulation in rural areas. Popnet is a robust tool for offering significant insights to policymakers and related stakeholders about the detailed future population, which allows them to establish detailed, localised planning and resource allocations.

computer vision↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Probability of Containment Effectiveness at a GCS Sites using integrated assessment modeling approach with Bayesian decision Networks

Improved scientific and engineering understanding of the behavior of geologic CO2 storage together with established regulatory framework and incentive structures raise the prospects for accelerated, large-scale deployment of this greenhouse gas emissions reduction approach. Incentive structures call for the establishment of appropriate verification and accounting approaches to support claims of the integrity of a geologic storage complex and to justify taking credit for long-term storage. In this study, we present a framework for assessing the probability of containment effectiveness over the lifetime of a geologic carbon storage site (e.g., after 70 years of injection and post-injection site performance) using forward stochastic model realizations based on site characterization data and using a monitoring-informed Bayesian network based on hypothetical detectability from surface seismic surveys over the site injection and post-injection phases. The National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) was utilized to develop an ensemble of 10,000 a priori stochastic forecasts of CO2 containment. Those simulations were used to train the Bayesian network model to estimate the prior probabilities of the CO2 leakage mass into overlying, monitorable aquifers considering the uncertainties in the reservoir properties, permeability of potentially leaky wells and the overlying aquifers. The conditional probabilities in the Bayesian network were either learned from the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations or derived from the predefined detection thresholds for the monitoring method. Observations obtained from monitoring, over time during the site operation phases were then used to generate updated posterior probabilities of containment (and any loss from containment) in the Bayesian network by propagating the prior probabilities through the conditional probabilities. We demonstrate how to construct and use the Bayesian network for verifying the long-term storage complex effectiveness informed by monitoring based on the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations previously developed for the FutureGen 2.0 site. This approach may have relevance for stake holders to demonstrate secure geologic storage, provide a defensible, probabilistic approach to claim credit for geologic storage, and to estimate the likelihood that any fraction of the claimed credit may need to be refunded to the creditor based on available monitoring information.

Bayesian network, Risk assessment, Monitoring, car↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep learning-accelerated 3D carbon storage reservoir pressure forecasting based on data assimilation using surface displacement from InSAR

Fast forecasting of the reservoir pressure distribution during geologic carbon storage (GCS) by assimilating monitoring data is a challenging problem. Due to high drilling cost, GCS projects usually have spatially sparse measurements from few wells, leading to high uncertainties in reservoir pressure prediction. To address this challenge, we use low-cost Interferometric Synthetic-Aperture Radar (InSAR) data as monitoring data to infer reservoir pressure build up. We develop a deep learning-accelerated workflow to assimilate surface displacement maps interpreted from InSAR and to forecast dynamic reservoir pressure. Employing an Ensemble Smoother Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) framework, the workflow updates three-dimensional (3D) geologic properties and predicts reservoir pressure with quantified uncertainties. We use a synthetic commercial-scale GCS model with bimodally distributed permeability and porosity to demonstrate the efficacy of the workflow. A two-step CNN-PCA approach is employed to parameterize the bimodal fields. The computational efficiency of the workflow is boosted by two residual U-Net based surrogate models for surface displacement and reservoir pressure predictions, respectively. The workflow can complete data assimilation and reservoir pressure forecasting in half an hour on a personal computer.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sources of Subseasonal-To-Seasonal Predictability of Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in the Western United States

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for a large portion of winter precipitation in the western US. To evaluate the sources of AR and precipitation predictability at subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales, we examine the relationships between two climate modes, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), and winter hydroclimate in the western US. Our analysis uses a large ensemble of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations from 1981 to 2017, facilitating the assessment of uncertainty in climate mode-AR relationship due to climate variability and short length of observations. Over the North Pacific basin, we find ENSO-related latitudinal shifts of ARs, but ENSO has little effect on basin-wide averaged AR frequency. Over the western US, there is some uncertainty in the ENSO-AR connection due to the impacts of ENSO indices and datasets. However, extreme El Niño events defined by the ENSO longitude index are consistently linked to increased landfalling AR activity. The MJO can lead to significantly enhanced or suppressed landfalling AR activity in the large-ensembles, depending on the phase of MJO and time lag, while observations are too short in length to robustly show this signal. ENSO substantially modulates the MJO-AR relationship, triggering variegated responses of landfalling ARs and AR precipitation in La Niña and El Niño years. Our findings highlight the need to evaluate concurrent effects of different climate modes on ARs and precipitation, and may shed light on a path toward more accurate subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of ARs and precipitation over the western US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate and Rapid Forecasts for Geologic Carbon Storage via Learning-Based Inversion-Free Prediction

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one approach being studied by the U.S. Department of Energy to help mitigate global warming. The process involves capturing CO 2 emissions from industrial sources and permanently storing them in deep geologic formations (storage reservoirs). However, CCS projects generally target “green field sites,” where there is often little characterization data and therefore large uncertainty about the petrophysical properties and other geologic attributes of the storage reservoir. Consequently, ensemble-based approaches are often used to forecast multiple realizations prior to CO 2 injection to visualize a range of potential outcomes. In addition, monitoring data during injection operations are used to update the pre-injection forecasts and thereby improve agreement between forecasted and observed behavior. Thus, a system for generating accurate, timely forecasts of pressure buildup and CO 2 movement and distribution within the storage reservoir and for updating those forecasts via monitoring measurements becomes crucial. This study proposes a learning-based prediction method that can accurately and rapidly forecast spatial distribution of CO 2 concentration and pressure with uncertainty quantification without relying on traditional inverse modeling. The machine learning techniques include dimension reduction, multivariate data analysis, and Bayesian learning. The outcome is expected to provide CO 2 storage site operators with an effective tool for timely and informative decision making based on limited simulation and monitoring data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wind Energy Forecasting with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

This was a collaborative effort between Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC as manager and operator of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Siemens Energy, Inc. (Siemens) to develop a wind resource forecasting tool. LLNL was to develop an independent high-resolution mesoscale modeling capability forecasting tool that could be implemented in conjunction with existing wind farm control and monitoring software to provide forecasting of wind resources using local observations of winds and temperature. Research with LLNL’s state-of-the-art large-eddy simulation meteorological prediction model, based on the community WRF model and innovative turbulence parameterizations, would improve that model’s applicability to large wind farms offshore and in complex terrain. The modeling capability would include uncertainty quantification. Finally, the application of the modeling tool and existing global climate change predictions would enable the delineation of the likely effects of climate change on wind resources. Siemens was to provide high time resolution hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams, including temperature profiles from wind farms, for LLNL to incorporate into the modeling system, to validate and tune this forecasting model for their locations of interest. These data streams would also be used for longer-term studies of correlations of wind resources to climate oscillations to indicate how long-term climate change trends may affect the available wind resource. Siemens would also provide information and observations of turbine wakes for incorporation into the modeling tool. By implementing state-of-the-art turbulence parameterizations into a simulation model and/or ensembles of simulation models, and by integrating real-time hub height wind speed and other meteorological datastreams from wind farms into that model or ensemble of models, LLNL would develop a forecasting tool that could be implemented by Siemens as an add-on to existing wind farm control and monitoring software to provide owners with useful resource forecasting. The desired outcome was that the accuracy level of the output would be sufficient to substantiate power output commitments. The final deliverable for this work would consist of a document outlining the algorithms and software tools that could be integrated into Siemens Wind Park Supervisor.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach

Integrating solar generation in recent years has highlighted the need for improved accuracy in predicting solar power. Confidence in solar power forecasting can be achieved by designing an ensemble that provides reliable probabilistic information for solar radiation with reduced uncertainty and error. Ideally, ensemble members are created through the optimized perturbation of the initial conditions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Tangent linear models are capable of efficiently investigating the sensitivity of solar radiation to model input parameters because they do not require individual perturbation of each variable. This sensitivity study using tangent linear models provide us the capability to identify the right variables to perturb in an ensemble prediction system. In this study, we developed tangent linear models for WRF-Solar modules that directly impact the computation of solar radiation and the simulation of cloud formation and dissipation including the Fast All-sky Model for Solar Applications (FARMS), the Noah land surface model (LSM), the Thompson microphysics, the Mello-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, and the Deng scheme for a shallow-convection parameterization. A sensitivity analysis was conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) and WRF-Solar, respectively. Critical forecasting variables that are highly sensitive to the forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes were determined using the relevant WRF-Solar module. This study will be used as a guidance on future research leading to high-quality probabilistic solar forecasting. In this presentation, we discuss the validation of tangent linear approach for WRF-Solar modules and illustrate how the sensitivity results are valuable in the improvement of probabilistic solar prediction.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ensemble modeling of watershed-scale hydrologic effects of short-rotation woody crop production

Short-rotation woody crop (SRWC) production involves a set of silvicultural practices that aim to produce large volumes of biomass over relatively short time frames. The area over which these practices are employed is likely to increase in the coming decades as the demand for bioenergy increases, but the potential effects of this change in land management, including the hydrologic effects, are largely unknown. Here we outline the results from an ensemble modeling study that was developed to forecast the range of potential hydrological responses to the implementation of SRWC production over areas that are large (>1000 ha) relative to the size of individual clearcuts. The three models, SWAT, MIKE-SHE, and Envision-SRS, a physically based model designed to represent watersheds with dynamic land cover, represent a range of simulation tools that include hydrological response to landcover change. Results suggest that SRWC production will affect the hydrologic balance, primarily through changes in the volume of transpired water associated with the rapidly growing young stands. In particular, average annual actual evapotranspiration (ET) rates tend to decline under SRWC production in response to the less mature vegetation. These reductions in ET are balanced in the hydrological cycle through elevated groundwater recharge, expressed in the model results as elevated annual stream discharge.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards physics-inspired data-driven weather forecasting: integrating data assimilation with a deep spatial-transformer-based U-NET in a case study with ERA5

Abstract. There is growing interest in data-driven weather prediction (DDWP), e.g., using convolutional neural networks such as U-NET that are trained on data from models or reanalysis. Here, we propose three components, inspired by physics, to integrate with commonly used DDWP models in order to improve their forecast accuracy. These components are (1) a deep spatial transformer added to the latent space of U-NET to capture rotation and scaling transformation in the latent space for spatiotemporal data, (2) a data-assimilation (DA) algorithm to ingest noisy observations and improve the initial conditions for next forecasts, and (3) a multi-time-step algorithm, which combines forecasts from DDWP models with different time steps through DA, improving the accuracy of forecasts at short intervals. To show the benefit and feasibility of each component, we use geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) from ERA5 reanalysis and examine the short-term forecast accuracy of specific setups of the DDWP framework. Results show that the spatial-transformer-based U-NET (U-STN) clearly outperforms the U-NET, e.g., improving the forecast skill by 45 %. Using a sigma-point ensemble Kalman (SPEnKF) algorithm for DA and U-STN as the forward model, we show that stable, accurate DA cycles are achieved even with high observation noise. This DDWP+DA framework substantially benefits from large (O(1000)) ensembles that are inexpensively generated with the data-driven forward model in each DA cycle. The multi-time-step DDWP+DA framework also shows promise; for example, it reduces the average error by factors of 2–3. These results show the benefits and feasibility of these three components, which are flexible and can be used in a variety of DDWP setups. Furthermore, while here we focus on weather forecasting, the three components can be readily adopted for other parts of the Earth system, such as ocean and land, for which there is a rapid growth of data and need for forecast and assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the variability of the Bering Sea Cold Pool and implications for the biophysical environment

The Bering Sea experiences a seasonal sea ice cover, which is important to the biophysical environment found there. A pool of cold bottom water (<2°C) is formed on the shelf each winter as a result of cooling and vertical mixing due to brine rejection during the predominately local sea ice growth. The extent and distribution of this Cold Pool (CP) is largely controlled by the winter extent of sea ice in the Bering Sea, which can vary considerably and recently has been much lower than average. The cold bottom water of the CP is important for food security because it delineates the boundary between arctic and subarctic demersal fish species. A northward retreat of the CP will likely be associated with migration of subarctic species toward the Chukchi Sea. We use the fully-coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to examine variability of the extent and distribution of the CP and its relation to change in the sea ice cover in the Bering Sea during the period 1980–2018. RASM results confirm the direct correlation between the extent of sea ice and the CP and show a smaller CP as a consequence of realistically simulated recent declines of the sea ice cover in the Bering Sea. In fact, the area of the CP was found to be only 31% of the long-term mean in July of 2018. In addition, we also find that a low ice year is followed by a later diatom bloom, while a heavy ice year is followed by an early diatom bloom. Finally, the RASM probabilistic intra-annual forecast capability is reviewed, based on 31-member ensembles for 2019–2021, for its potential use for prediction of the winter sea ice cover and the subsequent summer CP area in the Bering Sea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada (Rev. 1)

This document presents the groundwater flow and transport models along with simulation forecasts needed for the purpose of developing the ensemble of contaminant boundaries (CBs) for the Central and Western Pahute Mesa (PM) corrective action units (CAUs) 101 and 102. The PM CAUs are areas of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) that were historically used for underground nuclear testing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗