Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “ensemble”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1976

Dispersion of ensembles of non-interacting particles

The dynamics of an ensemble of noninteracting particles dispersing from a common origin and moving in a common force field with an initial distribution of momenta is analyzed using an approach where the particles are considered as a continuum described by a phase-space distribution function. General solutions are obtained for both the distribution function and the associated spatial density function. The linear case of small departures from circular orbits in an axisymmetric gravitational field is treated along with the specific case of particle dispersion from an object in a circular orbit in the same type of field. Numerical results are presented for the latter case, and consideration is given to the inverse problem of determining the initial time and velocity distribution from knowledge of the ensemble structure at a later time. Explicit results are provided for the case of an ellipsoidal distribution of initial momenta, and a numerical procedure is indicated for treating more general cases.

Heard, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Project FIRES. Volume 4: Prototype Protective Ensemble Qualification Test Report, Phase 1B

The qualification testing of a prototype firefighter's protective ensemble is documented. Included are descriptions of the design requirements, the testing methods, and the test apparatus. The tests include measurements of individual subsystem characteristics in areas relating to both physical testing, such as heat, flame, impact penetration and human factors testing, such as dexterity, grip, and mobility. Also, measurements related to both physical and human factors testing of the complete ensemble, such as water protection, metabolic expenditures, and compatibility are considered.

Abeles, F. J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Interaction of a cumulus cloud ensemble with the large-scale environment. III - Semi-prognostic test of the Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization

The verification of the Arakawa and Schubert (1974) cumulus parameterization is continued using a semiprognostic approach. Observed data from Phase III of GATE are used to provide estimates of the large-scale forcing of a cumulus ensemble at each observation time. Instantaneous values of the precipitation and the warming and drying due to cumulus convection are calculated using the parameterization. The results show that the calculated precipitation agrees very well with estimates from the observed large-scale moisture budget and from radar observations. The calculated vertical profiles of cumulus warming and drying also are quite similar to the observed. It is shown that the closure assumption adopted in the parameterization (the cloud-work function quasi-equilibrium) results in errors of generally less than 10% in the calculated precipitation. The sensitivity of the parameterization to some assumptions of the cloud ensemble model and the solution method for the cloud-base mass flux is investigated.

Lord, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

An ensemble formulation of PBL fluxes in a GCM

An ensemble approach is applied to Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) calculations with the bulk Richardson number identified as the key parameter. An ensemble averaging calculation was carried out to rederive the bulk friction and heat transport coefficients for the mean condition. Two simulations are carried out and compared. Significant differences in PBL fluxes low level cloudiness, land surface roughness heights, and surface evaporation are noted between the modified and unmodified simulations. Modifications to the model were: (1) the relationship between actual and potential Effective Temperature (ET) to accord with Sud and Fennessy (1982); (2) maximum permissible instantaneous ET at any time is 1.5 mm per hr; (3) moisture distribution in low level cumulus convection to be consistent with no precipitation; (4) appearance of supersaturation clouds to be consistent with supersaturation condition at that level; (5) invoking a simple function for stomatal diffusion effect in the ET calculation.

Sud, Y. C.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Statistical properties of a cloud ensemble - A numerical study

The statistical properties of cloud ensembles under a specified large-scale environment, such as mass flux by cloud drafts and vertical velocity as well as the condensation and evaporation associated with these cloud drafts, are examined using a three-dimensional numerical cloud ensemble model described by Soong and Ogura (1980) and Tao and Soong (1986). The cloud drafts are classified as active and inactive, and separate contributions to cloud statistics in areas of different cloud activity are then evaluated. The model results compare well with results obtained from aircraft measurements of a well-organized ITCZ rainband that occurred on August 12, 1974, during the Global Atmospheric Research Program's Atlantic Tropical Experiment.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS1989

Using a numerical cumulus ensemble model as a tool for studying cloud processes

A numerical cumulus ensemble model is presented, which covers a large area, and resolves individual cumulus clouds. The clouds produced by the model simulation are illustrated. Scatter plots of cloud amount vs relative humidity are examined. Plans for a cumulus ensemble model study on the effects of boundary layer processes on cloud formation are discussed.

Krueger, Steven K.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Temperature fluctuations in the canonical ensemble

We report the first quantitative measurements of spontaneous temperature fluctuations in a physical system well modeled by a canonical ensemble. Using superconducting magnetometers and a carefully controlled thermal environment, we have measured the noise spectra of paramagnetic salt thermometers that were coupled to thermal reservoirs at 2 K. The noise spectra were found to be in very good agreement with the predictions of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. Our observations are at variance with some interpretations of fluctuations in the canonical ensemble.

Chui, T. C. P.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Ensemble averaged dynamic modeling

The possibility of using the information from simultaneous equivalent Large Eddy Simulations (LAS) for improving the subgrid scale modeling is investigated. An ensemble average dynamic model is proposed as an alternative to the usual spatial average versions. It is shown to be suitable independently of the existence of any homogeneity directions, and its formulation is thus universal. The ensemble average dynamic model is shown to give very encouraging results for as few as 16 simultaneous LES's.

Carati, D.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Asymptotic Behavior of Ensemble-Averaged Linear Disturbances in Homogeneous Shear Flow

In order to expand the predictive capability of single-point turbulence closure models too account for the early-stage transition regime, a methodology for the formulation and calibration of model equations for the ensemble-averaged disturbance kinetic energy and energy dissipation rate is presented. The calibration is based on homogeneous shear flow where disturbances can be described by rapid distort,ion theory (RDT). The relationship between RDT and linear stability theory is exploit,c d in order to obtain a closed set, of modeled equations. The linear disturbance equations are solved directly so that, the numerical simulation yields a database from which the closure coefficient,s in the ensemble-averaged disturbance equations can he determined.

Thacker, W. D.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Massively Parallel Assimilation of TOGA/TAO and Topex/Poseidon Measurements into a Quasi Isopycnal Ocean General Circulation Model Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter

A massively parallel ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)is used to assimilate temperature data from the TOGA/TAO array and altimetry from TOPEX/POSEIDON into a Pacific basin version of the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP)ls quasi-isopycnal ocean general circulation model. The EnKF is an approximate Kalman filter in which the error-covariance propagation step is modeled by the integration of multiple instances of a numerical model. An estimate of the true error covariances is then inferred from the distribution of the ensemble of model state vectors. This inplementation of the filter takes advantage of the inherent parallelism in the EnKF algorithm by running all the model instances concurrently. The Kalman filter update step also occurs in parallel by having each processor process the observations that occur in the region of physical space for which it is responsible. The massively parallel data assimilation system is validated by withholding some of the data and then quantifying the extent to which the withheld information can be inferred from the assimilation of the remaining data. The distributions of the forecast and analysis error covariances predicted by the ENKF are also examined.

Keppenne, Christian L.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Modeling the Dynamics of Ensemble-Averaged Linear Disturbances in Homogeneous Shear Flow

In order to expand the predictive capability of single-point turbulence closure models to account for the early-stage transition regime, a methodology for the formulation and calibration of model equations for the ensemble-averaged disturbance kinetic energy and energy dissipation rate is presented. The calibration is based on homogeneous shear flow where disturbances can be described by rapid distortion theory (RDT). The relationship between RDT and linear stability theory is exploited in order to obtain a closed set of modeled equations. The linear disturbance equations are solved directly so that the numerical simulation yields a database from which the closure coefficients in the ensemble-averaged disturbance equations can be determined. Key words: transition/turbulence modeling, homogeneous shear, rapid distortion theory.

Thacker, W. D.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Ensemble Cannonical Correlation Prediction of Seasonal Precipitation Over the US

This paper presents preliminary results of an ensemble cannonical correlation (ECC) prediction scheme developed at the Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center for determining the potential predictability of regional precipitation, and for climate downscaling studies. The scheme is tested on seasonal hindcasts of anomalous precipitation over the continental United States using global sea surface temperature (SST) for 1951-2000. To maximize the forecast skill derived from SST, the world ocean is divided into nonoverlapping sectors. The cannonical SST modes for each sector are used as the predictor for the ensemble hindcasts. Results show that the ECC yields a substantial (10-25%) increase in prediction skills for all regions of the US and for all seasonal compared to traditional CCA prediction schemes. For the boreal winter, the tropical Pacific contributes the largest potential predictability to precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern regions, while the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible for enhanced forecast skills in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Plains and Ohio Valley. Most importantly, the ECC increases skill for summertime precipitation prediction and substantially reduced the spring predictability barrier over all regions of the US continent. Besides SST, the ECC is designed with the flexibility to include any number of predictor fields, such as soil moisture, snow cover and regional regional data. Moreover, the ECC forecasts can be applied to other climate subsystems and, in conjunction with further diagnostic or model studies will enables a better understanding of the dynamic links between climate variations and precipitation, not only for the US, but also for other regions of the world.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Ensemble Canonical Correlation Prediction of Seasonal Precipitation Over the United States: Raising the Bar for Dynamical Model Forecasts

This paper presents preliminary results of an ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) prediction scheme developed at the Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center for determining the potential predictability of regional precipitation, and for climate downscaling studies. The scheme is tested on seasonal hindcasts of anomalous precipitation over the continental United States using global sea surface temperature (SST) for 1951-2000. To maximize the forecast skill derived from SST, the world ocean is divided into non-overlapping sectors. The canonical SST modes for each sector are used as the predictor for the ensemble hindcasts. Results show that the ECC yields a substantial (10-25%) increase in prediction skills for all the regions of the US in every season compared to traditional CCA prediction schemes. For the boreal winter, the tropical Pacific contributes the largest potential predictability to precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern regions, while the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible to the enhanced forecast skills in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Plains and Ohio Valley. Most importantly, the ECC increases skill for summertime precipitation prediction and substantially reduces the spring predictability barrier over all the regions of the US continent. Besides SST, the ECC is designed with the flexibility to include any number of predictor fields, such as soil moisture, snow cover and additional local observations. The enhanced ECC forecast skill provides a new benchmark for evaluating dynamical model forecasts.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Ensembles of radial basis function networks for spectroscopic detection of cervical precancer

The mortality related to cervical cancer can be substantially reduced through early detection and treatment. However, current detection techniques, such as Pap smear and colposcopy, fail to achieve a concurrently high sensitivity and specificity. In vivo fluorescence spectroscopy is a technique which quickly, noninvasively and quantitatively probes the biochemical and morphological changes that occur in precancerous tissue. A multivariate statistical algorithm was used to extract clinically useful information from tissue spectra acquired from 361 cervical sites from 95 patients at 337-, 380-, and 460-nm excitation wavelengths. The multivariate statistical analysis was also employed to reduce the number of fluorescence excitation-emission wavelength pairs required to discriminate healthy tissue samples from precancerous tissue samples. The use of connectionist methods such as multilayered perceptrons, radial basis function (RBF) networks, and ensembles of such networks was investigated. RBF ensemble algorithms based on fluorescence spectra potentially provide automated and near real-time implementation of precancer detection in the hands of nonexperts. The results are more reliable, direct, and accurate than those achieved by either human experts or multivariate statistical algorithms.

Cervix Neoplasms/pathology↗
NASA NTRS2007

Evaluating Model Performance of an Ensemble-based Chemical Data Assimilation System During INTEX-B Field Mission

We present a global chemical data assimilation system using a global atmosphere model, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3) with simplified chemistry and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) assimilation package. DART is a community software facility for assimilation studies using the ensemble Kalman filter approach. Here, we apply the assimilation system to constrain global tropospheric carbon monoxide (CO) by assimilating meteorological observations of temperature and horizontal wind velocity and satellite CO retrievals from the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite instrument. We verify the system performance using independent CO observations taken on board the NSFINCAR C-130 and NASA DC-8 aircrafts during the April 2006 part of the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment (INTEX-B). Our evaluations show that MOPITT data assimilation provides significant improvements in terms of capturing the observed CO variability relative to no MOPITT assimilation (i.e. the correlation improves from 0.62 to 0.71, significant at 99% confidence). The assimilation provides evidence of median CO loading of about 150 ppbv at 700 hPa over the NE Pacific during April 2006. This is marginally higher than the modeled CO with no MOPITT assimilation (-140 ppbv). Our ensemble-based estimates of model uncertainty also show model overprediction over the source region (i.e. China) and underprediction over the NE Pacific, suggesting model errors that cannot be readily explained by emissions alone. These results have important implications for improving regional chemical forecasts and for inverse modeling of CO sources and further demonstrate the utility of the assimilation system in comparing non-coincident measurements, e.g. comparing satellite retrievals of CO with in-situ aircraft measurements. The work described above also brought to light several short-comings of the data assimilation approach for CO profiles. Because of the limited vertical resolution of the measurement, the retrievals at different altitudes are correlated which can lead to problems with numerical error and overall efficiency. This has resulted in a manuscript that is about to be submitted to JGR:

Arellano, A. F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Aerosol Observability and Predictability: From Research to Operations for Chemical Weather Forecasting. Lagrangian Displacement Ensembles for Aerosol Data Assimilation

A challenge common to many constituent data assimilation applications is the fact that one observes a much smaller fraction of the phase space that one wishes to estimate. For example, remotely sensed estimates of the column average concentrations are available, while one is faced with the problem of estimating 3D concentrations for initializing a prognostic model. This problem is exacerbated in the case of aerosols because the observable Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is not only a column integrated quantity, but it also sums over a large number of species (dust, sea-salt, carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols. An aerosol transport model when driven by high-resolution, state-of-the-art analysis of meteorological fields and realistic emissions can produce skillful forecasts even when no aerosol data is assimilated. The main task of aerosol data assimilation is to address the bias arising from inaccurate emissions, and Lagrangian misplacement of plumes induced by errors in the driving meteorological fields. As long as one decouples the meteorological and aerosol assimilation as we do here, the classic baroclinic growth of error is no longer the main order of business. We will describe an aerosol data assimilation scheme in which the analysis update step is conducted in observation space, using an adaptive maximum-likelihood scheme for estimating background errors in AOD space. This scheme includes e explicit sequential bias estimation as in Dee and da Silva. Unlikely existing aerosol data assimilation schemes we do not obtain analysis increments of the 3D concentrations by scaling the background profiles. Instead we explore the Lagrangian characteristics of the problem for generating local displacement ensembles. These high-resolution state-dependent ensembles are then used to parameterize the background errors and generate 3D aerosol increments. The algorithm has computational complexity running at a resolution of 1/4 degree, globally. We will present the result of assimilating AOD retrievals from MODIS (on both Aqua and TERRA satellites) from AERONET for validation. The impact on the GEOS-5 Aerosol Forecasting will be fully documented.

da Silva, Arlindo↗