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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of Bifacial Performance Modeling

Analysis on uncertainty in the annual energy of PV systems that can be attributed to parameters of particular importance to bifacial PV modules is presented. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the effect of uncertain module bifaciality factors, module transmission fractions, albedo values, and ground clearance. The analyses cover a wide spectrum of potential PV array archetypes through variation of installation parameters. The results of the Monte Carlo analysis reveal that the uncertainty is largely dependent on albedo uncertainty, but more simulations are needed to identify trends across system archetypes. The simulations are aimed at attributing an annual energy uncertainty factor for bifacial considerations that can be applied in post-processing of project probability of exceedance analysis.

bifacial↗
DOE OSTI2021

Valuation of Wind Energy Turbines Using Volatility of Wind and Price

The limitedness of the nonrenewable local energy resources in Israel, even in the background of the later gas fields’ findings, continues to force the state to devote various efforts towards ‘green’ energy development. These efforts include installations, both for the solar and for wind energy, thus improving the diversity of energy sources. While the standard discounted cash flow (DCF) method using the net present value (NPV) criterion is extensively adopted to evaluate investments, the standard DCF method is inappropriate for the rapidly changing investment climate and for the managerial flexibility in investment decisions. In recent years, the real options analysis (ROA) technique has been widely applied in many studies for the valuation of renewable energy investment projects. Taking into account the above background, we apply, in this study, the real options analysis approach for the valuation of wind energy turbines and apply it to the analysis of wind energy economic potential in Israel, which is the context of our work. We hypothesize that due to nature of wind energy production uncertainties, the ROA method is better than the alternative. The novelty of this paper includes the following: real world wind statistics of the Merom Golan site in Israel (velocity 3.73 m/s, with a standard deviation of 2.03 m/s), a realistic power generation estimation (power generation of 1205.84 kW with a standard deviation of about 0.5% in annual value which is worth about 1.3 M$ per annum), and an economic model to evaluate the profitability of such a project. We thus discuss the existing challenges of diversifying renewable energy sources in Israel by adding wind installations. Our motivation is to introduce a method which will allow investors and officials to take into account uncertainties when deciding in investing in such wind installations. The outcomes of the paper, which are obtained using the method of Weibull statistics and the Black–Scholes ROA technique, include the result that market price volatility adds to the uncertainties much more than any wind fluctuations, provided that the analysis is integrated over a long enough time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measurement of inclusive $J/ψ$ production in Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}}$ = 54.4 GeV at STAR

This article presents measurements of inclusive J/ψ production at midrapidity (|y| < 1.0) in Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}}$ = 54.4 GeV with the STAR detector at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. A suppression of the J/ψ yield, quantified using the nuclear modification factors (R AA , R CP ), is observed with respect to the scaled production p + p in collisions. The dependence of R AA on collision centrality and J/ψ transverse momentum is measured with improved precision compared to previous measurements at 39 and 62.4 GeV, while the centrality dependence of R CP is measured and compared to the same results at 39, 62.4, and 200 GeV. In central collisions, no significant collision energy dependence of R AA is found within uncertainties for collision energies between 17.3 and 200 GeV. Two transport model calculations that include dissociation and regeneration contributions are consistent with the experimental results within uncertainties. Although no significant collision energy dependence of the J/ψ suppression in high energy heavy-ion collisions up to $\sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}}$ = 200 GeV is observed within uncertainties, the newly measured results at 54.4 GeV Au+Au collisions provide additional constraints on theoretical calculations of the hot medium evolution and cold nuclear matter effects.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Zonal Reserve Requirements for Improved Energy Deliverability with Wind Power

In power systems with high penetration of renewable energy resources, uncertainty and variability of these stochastic resources introduce additional challenges for the operation of power systems. To improve the power system's reliability in the face of uncertainty, reserves are required as additional generation capacity to rebalance the power system following random disturbances. However, reserve deliverability is not guaranteed, because it may encounter potential transmission line congestion. Zonal reserve requirements can address this issue, but operators lack efficient ways to allocate reserves to zones while accounting for wind power forecast uncertainty. Herein we propose a methodology for probabilistic zonal reserve requirements to address wind power forecast uncertainties. This method estimates the probability distribution of line flows based on the system generation margin and injection shift factor. This estimate is then used to construct pre-defined and post-zonal reserve requirements. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed method efficiently schedules energy and reserves to balance energy and manage deliverability with wind power forecast uncertainty.We also discuss operational implications of the proposed method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Radiation characterization summary of the NETL beam port 1/5 free-field environment at the 128-inch core centerline adjacent location

The characterization of the neutron, prompt gamma-ray, and delayed gamma-ray radiation fields in the University of Texas at Austin Nuclear Engineering Teaching Laboratory (NETL) TRIGA reactor for the beam port (BP) 1/5 free-field environment at the 128-inch location adjacent to the core centerline has been accomplished. NETL is being explored as an auxiliary neutron test facility for the Sandia National Laboratories radiation effects sciences research and development campaigns. The NETL reactor is a TRIGA Mark-II pulse and steady-state, above-ground pool-type reactor. NETL is intended as a university research reactor typically used to perform irradiation experiments for students and customers, radioisotope production, as well as a training reactor. Initial criticality of the NETL TRIGA reactor was achieved on March 12, 1992, making it one of the newest test reactor facilities in the US. The neutron energy spectra, uncertainties, and covariance matrices are presented as well as a neutron fluence map of the experiment area of the cavity. For an unmoderated condition, the neutron fluence at the center of BP 1/5, at the adjacent core axial centerline, is about 8.2×10 12 n/cm 2 per MJ of reactor energy. About 67% of the neutron fluence is below 1 keV and 22% above 100 keV. The 1-MeV Damage-Equivalent Silicon (DES) fluence is roughly 1.6×10 12 n/cm 2 per MJ of reactor energy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Considering the Variability of Soiling in Long-Term PV Performance Forecasting: Preprint

This study presents the development of a methodology for evaluating the variability associated with soiling on long-term PV forecasting. Independent engineering firms typically build P50 forecasts for large PV plants through the use of the PVsyst software, where monthly soiling losses are one of many inputs to the P50 model. Subsequently, long-term performance distributions, or Pvalues, are constructed through a Monte Carlo analysis that includes various factors such as: satellite irradiance modeling uncertainty, uncertainty in the PVsyst model, and long-term irradiance variability. Often the PVsyst model uncertainty is increased to account for sites with significant soiling concerns but no systematic method has been presented in the literature to specifically include soiling variability within Pvalues. In this work soiling information from 16 sites in the U.S. Southwest are combined with 20 years of rainfall data to generate 20 years of energy production with soiling losses and then subsequently generate Pvalues. The results show that the spread of Pvalues (P1-P99) can increase from 0-13% when interannual soiling variability is included.

interannual variability↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of Low-energy Ionization Signals in Silicon Detectors for the Nab Experiment

The Nab (Neutron a b) experiment is designed to measure the beta-antineutrino angular correlation in free neutron 𝛽 decay with an ultimate precision goal of 0.1%, providing input for tests of Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix unitarity. This measurement is performed via detection of electrons and protons in delayed coincidence using custom large-area segmented silicon detectors. We present the characterization of one such detector system to establish the proton energy and timing response, using a dedicated proton accelerator. The detected proton peak was studied for 25, 30, and 35 keV incident protons on a set of detector segments and multiple cooling cycles over a one-year period. Ionization losses were consistent with models of the detector dead layer with thicknesses less than 100 nm. The detected proton peak was stable within the uncertainty from energy calibration (0.25 keV). The rise times of detector pulses from 109Cd and 113Sn conversion electron sources were used to extract the impurity density profile and establish a precise model for the detector timing response. The observed impurity density profile varied from (2±2)×109/cm3 at the center to (26±2)×109/cm3 at the edge. This impurity density profile was then used to characterize systematic effects in proton time-of-flight measurements due to detector pulse-shape effects; the resultant proton timing systematic uncertainties were below 0.3 ns, which is sufficient for the Nab experiment.

Taylor, RJ [North Carolina State University]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Elliptic flow of heavy-flavor decay electrons in Au+Au collisions at s NN = 27 and 54.4 GeV at RHIC

We report on new measurements of elliptic flow (v 2 ) of electrons from heavy-flavor hadron decays at mid-rapidity (|y| < 0.8) in Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s{NN}}$ = 27 and 54.4 GeV from the STAR experiment. Heavy-flavor decay electrons (eHF) in Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s{NN}}$ = 54.4 GeV exhibit a non-zero v 2 in the transverse momentum (p T ) region of p T < 2 GeV/c with the magnitude comparable to that at $\sqrt{s{NN}}$=200 GeV. The measured e HF v 2 at 54.4 GeV is also consistent with the expectation of their parent charm hadron v 2 following number-of-constituent-quark scaling as other light and strange flavor hadrons at this energy. These suggest that charm quarks gain significant collectivity through the evolution of the QCD medium and may reach local thermal equilibrium in Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s{NN}}$=54.4 GeV. The measured e HF v 2 in Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s{NN}}$ = 27 GeV is consistent with zero within large uncertainties. The energy dependence of v 2 for different flavor particles (π,Φ,D 0 /e HF ) shows an indication of quark mass hierarchy in reaching thermalization in high-energy nuclear collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring Radiation, Water and Energy Closure in Key Deep Tropical Regions Over the Last 3 Decades

The closure of global energy and water budgets at various time scales depends heavily upon the on the processes of water and energy exchange in the deep tropics. A key process observed is the change in convection regimes from disorganized convection to organized deep convection. During these periods an imbalance in key tropical regions is observed of water budget terms between observations and atmospheric reanalysis systems, implying that processes are not simulated well. For instance, periods of imbalance in the water budget may be at least partly attributed to precipitation estimates due to the transition between cloud and precipitation systems in which ice cloud affects microwave radar estimates (Lietmann-Niimi et al. 2024, submitted). A recent paper by Hsaio et al (2023, pre-published version) found that the transition process is characterized by wind shear and longwave cloud radiative feedback signatures as well. This is just one example how these processes also affect the radiative fluxes and thus the energy budget at the TOA. In this presentation, we assess the net radiative budget and components in the deep tropics by comparing multiple data products (GEWEX SRB Rel4IP, CERES EBAF/SYN1deg Ed4.2, ISSCP FH, etc.) and describing the temporal variability of energy balance terms across the deep tropics for the period from 1988 to near present in six key oceanic regions. These six key tropical oceanic regions are West Indian Ocean, the south Indian Ocean east, tropical western, central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and Tropical Atlantic Ocean. In these regions we assess the sensitivity of the fluxes as a function of fluctuations in cloud types in response to various larger scale atmospheric processes (e.g. El Niño, Indian Ocean Dipole). We assess this variability of the radiative flux anomalies (including the net TOA, surface and the atmospheric divergence fluxes) against water vapor divergence, cloud properties (include ISCCP “Weather States, Tselioudis et al. 2021) and larger scale wind shear to assess the uncertainties of energy closure in these regions. These are contrasted against the modeled radiative fluxes from ERA-5 and MERRA-2. Ocean buoy measurements of radiative fluxes are utilized to help assess data radiative flux uncertainty over the nearly 40 year period. In general, the variability for overlap periods of these various data products agrees well, but there are significant differences in the net fluxes that vary according to the rendering of surface, atmospheric, aerosol and cloud properties. These differences also affect closure terms and inferences on systematic uncertainties within the observational estimates. We conclude with recommendations for continuing work

Radiation budget↗
DOE OSTI2023

Factorial growth at low orders in perturbative QCD: control over truncation uncertainties

A method, known as “minimal renormalon subtraction”, relates the factorial growth of a perturbative series (in QCD) to the power p of a power correction Λ p /Q p . (Λ is the QCD scale, Q some hard scale.) Here, the derivation is simplified and generalized to any p , more than one such correction, and cases with anomalous dimensions. Strikingly, the well-known factorial growth is seen to emerge already at low or medium orders, as a consequence of constraints on the Q dependence from the renormalization group. The effectiveness of the method is studied with the gluonic energy between a static quark and static antiquark (the “static energy”). Truncation uncertainties are found to be under control after next-to-leading order, despite the small exponent of the power correction ( p = 1) and associated rapid growth seen in the first four coefficients of the perturbative series.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Radiation characterization summary for the WSMR fast burst reactor environment at the 6-inch location

The characterization of the neutron, prompt gamma-ray, and delayed gamma-ray radiation fields for the White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) Fast Burst Reactor, also known as molybdenum-alloy Godiva (Molly-G) has been assessed at the 6-inch irradiation location. The neutron energy spectra, uncertainties, and common radiation metrics are presented. Code-dependent recommended constants are given to facilitate the conversion of various dosimetry readings into radiation metrics desired by experimenters. The Molly-G core was designed and configured similarly to Godiva II, as an unreflected, unmoderated, cylindrical annulus of uranium-molybdenum-alloy fuel with molybdenum loading of 10%. At the 6-inch position, the axial fluence maximum is about 2.4×10 13 n/cm 2 per MJ of reactor energy; about 0.1% of the neutron fluence is below 1 keV and 96% is above 100 keV. The 1-MeV Damage-Equivalent Silicon (DES) fluence is estimated at 2.2×10 13 n/cm 2 per MJ of reactor energy. The prompt gamma-ray dose is roughly 2.5E+03 rad(Si) per MJ and the delayed gamma-ray dose is about 1.3E+03 rad(Si) per MJ.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust and scalable uncertainty estimation with conformal prediction for machine-learned interatomic potentials

Abstract Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important to machine learning (ML) force fields to assess the level of confidence during prediction, as ML models are not inherently physical and can therefore yield catastrophically incorrect predictions. Established a-posteriori UQ methods, including ensemble methods, the dropout method, the delta method, and various heuristic distance metrics, have limitations such as being computationally challenging for large models due to model re-training. In addition, the uncertainty estimates are often not rigorously calibrated. In this work, we propose combining the distribution-free UQ method, known as conformal prediction (CP), with the distances in the neural network’s latent space to estimate the uncertainty of energies predicted by neural network force fields. We evaluate this method (CP+latent) along with other UQ methods on two essential aspects, calibration, and sharpness, and find this method to be both calibrated and sharp under the assumption of independent and identically-distributed (i.i.d.) data. We show that the method is relatively insensitive to hyperparameters selected, and test the limitations of the method when the i.i.d. assumption is violated. Finally, we demonstrate that this method can be readily applied to trained neural network force fields with traditional and graph neural network architectures to obtain estimates of uncertainty with low computational costs on a training dataset of 1 million images to showcase its scalability and portability. Incorporating the CP method with latent distances offers a calibrated, sharp and efficient strategy to estimate the uncertainty of neural network force fields. In addition, the CP approach can also function as a promising strategy for calibrating uncertainty estimated by other approaches.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Reinforcement Learning over ECMWF

In this paper, we present an innovative reinforcement learning approach for short-term solar forecasting, leveraging data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The methodology begins with the application of the System Advisor Model (SAM) to transform various ECMWF numerical weather prediction members into predictive photovoltaic power generation. To enhance the precision of deterministic forecasting, we introduce a dynamic model selection algorithm based on Q-learning. This algorithm dynamically identifies and utilizes the most accurate ensemble member for forecasting purposes. Furthermore, we employ a support vector regression surrogate model with a Gaussian distribution to generate probabilistic forecasts, providing a holistic view of solar energy generation uncertainty. To expedite the training process and make it more practical for real-world applications, we integrate a rolling update workflow. This innovative workflow reduces the training period from months to a mere 19 days, making our method highly efficient. Numerical results of the case study show that in comparison to benchmark models, the proposed method improves the deterministic and probabilistic solar forecasting accuracy by up to 40.84% and 48.42%, respectively.

ensemble forecasting↗
DOE OSTI2020

Field Validation of Wake Steering Control with Wind Direction Variability

Wake steering is a wind farm control strategy wherein upstream turbines are misaligned with the wind direction to redirect their wakes away from downstream turbines, increasing overall wind plant power. Wake steering is often analyzed assuming steady mean wind directions across the wind farm. However, in practice, the wind direction varies considerably over time because of large-scale weather phenomena. Wind direction variability causes the increase in power production from wake-steering to be less than predicted by steady-state models, but more robust wake-steering strategies can be designed that account for variable wind conditions. This paper compares the achieved yaw offsets and power gains from two different 2-turbine wake-steering experiments at a commercial wind farm with model predictions using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) control-oriented model, assuming both fixed and variable wind directions. The impact of wind direction variability is modeled by including wind direction and yaw uncertainty in the FLORIS calculations. The field results match the trends predicted, assuming wind direction variability. Specifically, the yaw offsets achieved in the intended control regions are lower than desired, resulting in less power gain, while a slight loss in power occurs for wind directions outside of the intended control region because of unintentional yaw misalignment. The agreement between the model and field results suggests that the wind direction variability model can be used to design wake-steering controllers that are more robust to variable wind conditions present in the field.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Field Validation of Wake Steering Control with Wind Direction Variability: Preprint

Wake steering is a type of wind farm control strategy wherein upstream turbines are misaligned with the wind direction to redirect their wakes away from downstream turbines, increasing overall wind plant power. Wake steering is often analyzed assuming steady mean wind directions across the wind farm. However, in practice, the wind direction varies considerably over time because of large-scale weather phenomena. Wind direction variability causes wake steering controllers to increase power production less than predicted by steady state models, but more robust wake steering strategies can be designed that account for variable wind conditions. This paper compares the achieved yaw offsets and power gains from two 2-turbine wake steering experiments at a commercial wind farm with model predictions using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) control-oriented model, assuming both fixed and variable wind directions. The impact of wind direction variability is modeled by including wind direction and yaw uncertainty in the FLORIS calculations. The field results match the trends predicted assuming wind direction variability. Specifically, the yaw offsets achieved in the intended control regions are lower than desired, resulting in less power gain, while a slight loss in power occurs for wind directions outside of the intended control region because of unintentional yaw misalignment. The agreement between the model and field results suggests that the wind direction variability model can be used to design wake steering controllers that are more robust to variable wind conditions present in the field.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy calibration of germanium detectors for the Majorana Demonstrator

The Majorana Demonstrator was a search for neutrinoless double-beta decay (0νββ) in the 76 Ge isotope. It was staged at the 4850-foot level of the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, SD. The experiment consisted of 58 germanium detectors housed in a low background shield and was calibrated once per week by deploying a 228 Th line source for 1 to 2 hours. The energy scale calibration determination for the detector array was automated using custom analysis tools. We describe the offline procedure for calibration of the Demonstrator germanium detectors, including the simultaneous fitting of multiple spectral peaks, estimation of energy scale uncertainties, and the automation of the calibration procedure.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Laboratory Measurements of n >= 3 K-shell Transition Energies of Sulfur Ions from F-like S viii to Li-like S xiv

Inner-shell transitions are ubiquitous in nonequilibrium collisionally ionized plasmas, such as supernova remnants, and in photoionized plasmas, such as outflows from active galactic nuclei and X-ray binaries. Inner-shell X-ray emission can help determine key parameters of these systems, such as ionization time, τ, and ionization parameter, ξ. Despite their importance, only theoretical inner-shell transition energies are available for many ions. To provide experimental benchmarks, we have measured the dominant n → 1 K-shell transitions of sulfur ions where n ≥ 3 from Li-like S xiv to F-like S viii using LLNL’s SuperEBIT electron beam ion trap and the NASA/GSFC EBIT Calorimeter Spectrometer (ECS). We identify over 30 spectral features and measure their energies with uncertainties in the ∼0.1–1 eV range. We compare these results to Flexible Atomic Code (FAC) and multireference Møller–Plesset (MR-MP) calculations and find differences between theory and experiment of ∼1 eV for FAC and <0.5 eV for most MR-MP calculations. We also compare these results to two widely used atomic databases, AtomDB and CHIANTI, and find discrepancies as high as 7 eV. Furthermore, many transitions are missing from these databases despite being prominent in our data.

Atomic data benchmarking↗
DOE OSTI2024

Triplet Exciton Sensitization of Silicon Mediated by Defect States in Hafnium Oxynitride

Singlet exciton fission has the potential to increase the efficiency of crystalline silicon solar cells beyond the conventional single junction limit. Perhaps the largest obstacle to achieving this enhancement is uncertainty about energy coupling mechanisms at the interfaces between silicon and exciton fission materials such as tetracene. Here, the previously reported silicon‐hafnium oxynitride‐tetracene structure is studied and a combination of magnetic‐field‐dependent silicon photoluminescence measurements and density functional theory calculations is used to probe the influence of the interlayer composition on the triplet transfer process across the hafnium oxynitride interlayer. It is found that hafnium oxide interlayers do not show triplet exciton sensitization of silicon, and that nitrogen content in hafnium oxynitride layers is correlated with enhanced sensitization. Calculation results reveal that defects in hafnium oxynitride interlayers with higher nitrogen content introduce states close to the band‐edge of silicon, which can mediate the triplet exciton transfer process. Some defects introduce additional deleterious mid‐gap states, which may explain observed silicon photoluminescence quenching. These results show that band‐edge states can mediate the triplet exciton transfer process, potentially through a sequential charge transfer mechanism.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗