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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

TDCOSMO. X. Automated modeling of nine strongly lensed quasars and comparison between lens-modeling software

When strong gravitational lenses are to be used as an astrophysical or cosmological probe, models of their mass distributions are often needed. We present a new, time-efficient automation code for the uniform modeling of strongly lensed quasars with GLEE, a lens-modeling software for multiband data. By using the observed positions of the lensed quasars and the spatially extended surface brightness distribution of the host galaxy of the lensed quasar, we obtain a model of the mass distribution of the lens galaxy. We applied this uniform modeling pipeline to a sample of nine strongly lensed quasars for which images were obtained with the Wide Field Camera 3 of the Hubble Space Telescope. The models show well-reconstructed light components and a good alignment between mass and light centroids in most cases. We find that the automated modeling code significantly reduces the input time during the modeling process for the user. The time for preparing the required input files is reduced by a factor of 3 from ~3 h to about one hour. The active input time during the modeling process for the user is reduced by a factor of 10 from ~ 10 h to about one hour per lens system. This automated uniform modeling pipeline can efficiently produce uniform models of extensive lens-system samples that can be used for further cosmological analysis. A blind test that compared our results with those of an independent automated modeling pipeline based on the modeling software Lenstronomy revealed important lessons. Quantities such as Einstein radius, astrometry, mass flattening, and position angle are generally robustly determined. Other quantities, such as the radial slope of the mass density profile and predicted time delays, depend crucially on the quality of the data and on the accuracy with which the point spread function is reconstructed. Better data and/or a more detailed analysis are necessary to elevate our automated models to cosmography grade. Nevertheless, our pipeline enables the quick selection of lenses for follow-up and further modeling, which significantly speeds up the construction of cosmography-grade models. This important step forward will help us to take advantage of the increase in the number of lenses that is expected in the coming decade, which is an increase of several orders of magnitude.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data used in manuscript "Quantifying Subsurface Flow and Solute Transport in a Snowmelt-recharged Hillslope with Multiyear Water Balance", submitted to Water Resources Research on 5-26-2022

Data in this package were used to calculate subsurface flow and solute (specifically dissolved nitrogen) transport in the Pumphouse Lower Montane (PLM) hillslope. These data are included in separate CSV files associated with each figure presented in the manuscript. The files describe site locations and elevations, weather data (air temperatures and precipitation), modeled evapotranspiration, time dependent groundwater elevations, calculated annual subsurface flow, hydraulic conductivity values, time trends in subsurface flow within different zones, pore water concentrations of total dissolve nitrogen (TDN), rates of TDN transport, soil water matric potentials following snowmelt, soil water contents during drainage, and evapotranspiration calculated by soil water mass balance versus by CLM4 model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cooperative Research and Development Agreement between National Energy Technology Laboratory and ATI Specialty Alloys & Components (Abstract)

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and ATI will collaborate on improving the computational capabilities for predicting elevated temperature strength and phase stability for refractory-based alloys. Increasing the efficiency and decreasing harmful emissions from turbines for power generation and aviation applications will require materials beyond superalloys to accommodate higher turbine combustion and inlet temperatures. Higher strength refractory alloys are a potential enabling technology for these highly efficient, low emission, advanced turbines. The development of higher strength refractory alloys will be aided by improved and validated computational models to predict elevated temperature strength.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

A global model–measurement evaluation of particle light scattering coefficients at elevated relative humidity

The uptake of water by atmospheric aerosols has a pronounced effect on particle light scattering properties, which in turn are strongly dependent on the ambient relative humidity (RH). Earth system models need to account for the aerosol water uptake and its influence on light scattering in order to properly capture the overall radiative effects of aerosols. Here we present a comprehensive model–measurement evaluation of the particle light scattering enhancement factor f(RH), defined as the particle light scattering coefficient at elevated RH (here set to 85 %) divided by its dry value. The comparison uses simulations from 10 Earth system models and a global dataset of surface-based in situ measurements. In general, we find a large diversity in the magnitude of predicted f(RH) amongst the different models, which can not be explained by the site types. Based on our evaluation of sea salt scattering enhancement and simulated organic mass fraction, there is a strong indication that differences in the model parameterizations of hygroscopicity and model chemistry are driving at least some of the observed diversity in simulated f(RH). Additionally, a key point is that defining dry conditions is difficult from an observational point of view and, depending on the aerosol, may influence the measured f(RH). The definition of dry also impacts our model evaluation, because several models exhibit significant water uptake between RH = 0 % and 40 %. The multisite average ratio between model outputs and measurements is 1.64 when RH = 0 % is assumed as the model dry RH and 1.16 when RH = 40 % is the model dry RH value. The overestimation by the models is believed to originate from the hygroscopicity parameterizations at the lower RH range which may not implement all phenomena taking place (i.e., not fully dried particles and hysteresis effects). This will be particularly relevant when a location is dominated by a deliquescent aerosol such as sea salt. Our results emphasize the need to consider the measurement conditions in such comparisons and recognize that measurements referred to as dry may not be dry in model terms. Recommendations for future model–measurement evaluation and model improvements are provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

On plasticity-enhanced interfacial toughness in bonded joints

Here, the performance and reliability of many structures and components depend on the integrity of interfaces between dissimilar materials. Interfacial toughness Γ is the key material parameter that characterizes resistance to interfacial crack growth, and Γ is known to depend on many factors including temperature. For example, previous work showed that the toughness of an epoxy/aluminum interface decreased 40 % as the test temperature was increased from -60 °C to room temperature (RT). Interfacial integrity at elevated temperatures is of considerable practical importance. Recent measurements show that instead of continuing to decrease with increasing temperature, Γ increases when test temperature is above RT. Cohesive zone finite element calculations of an adhesively bonded, asymmetric double cantilever beam specimen of the type used to measure Γ suggest that this increase in toughness may be a result of R-curve behavior generated by plasticity-enhanced toughening during stable subcritical crack growth with interfacial toughness defined as the critical steady-state limit value. In these calculations, which used an elastic-perfectly plastic epoxy model with a temperature-dependent yield strength, the plasticity-enhanced increase in Γ above its intrinsic value Γ o depended on the ratio of interfacial strength σ* to the yield strength σyb of the bond material. There is a nonlinear relationship between Γ/Γ o and σ*/σ yb with the value Γ/Γ o increasing rapidly above a threshold value of σ*/σ yb . The predicted increase in toughness can be significant. For example, there is nearly a factor of two predicted increase in Γ/Γ o during micrometer-scale crack-growth when σ*/σ yb = 2 (a reasonable choice for σ*/σ yb ). Furthermore, contrary to other reported results, plasticity-enhanced toughening can occur prior to crack advance as the cohesive zone forms and the peak stress at the tip of the original crack tip translates to the tip of the fully formed cohesive zone. These results suggest that plasticity-enhanced toughening should be considered when modeling interfaces at elevated temperatures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Colistin resistance plasmids dually enhance bacterial virulence and antibiotic resistance via surface polysaccharide biosynthesis

Plasmids carrying the mobilized colistin-resistance gene mcr-1 are prevalent among multidrug-resistant Gram-negative pathogens, yet their broad impact on bacterial physiology and virulence remains unclear. Here, we demonstrate that acquisition of an mcr-1 plasmid concurrently increases antimicrobial resistance and pathogenicity in Escherichia coli. On the same plasmid, the XRE-family transcriptional regulator EcaR cooperates with MCR-1 to activate the wec operon, driving biosynthesis of two surface polysaccharides: enterobacterial common antigen (ECA) and a high-molecular-weight O-chain. Expression of these surface polysaccharides increases bile resistance and virulence in a murine model and further elevates colistin resistance. MCR-1 enhances transcription of upstream genes in the wec operon, whereas EcaR directly activates an internal promoter (PwecE) to induce downstream gene expression. Thus, both components are required for surface polysaccharide expression, and deletion of either abolishes the phenotype. Genomic analysis of publicly available mcr plasmids reveals widespread co-occurrence of mcr-1 and ecaR on IncI2 and IncX4 plasmids, indicating their functional complementarity. These findings uncover a mechanism by which resistance plasmids remodel the bacterial surface, linking horizontal gene transfer to coordinated regulation of antimicrobial resistance and virulence.

Antimicrobial resistance↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrologic Evaluation of Smallmouth Bass Spawning Sites in the Upper Green River Using LiDAR

The smallmouth bass has been considered one of the most problematic invasive species in the upper Colorado River basin. As a predator of larval fish and juveniles, this nonnative species is an impediment to conservation efforts for endangered fish species of the Colorado River basin including Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius), razorback sucker (Xyrauchen texanus), humpback chub (Gila cypha), and bonytail chub (Gila elegans). Several measures have been recommended to control smallmouth bass populations to conserve the endangered fish species. Among these measures are efforts to control flows during the spawning season to disrupt smallmouth bass reproduction. Previous work has suggested that smallmouth bass spawning in areas of the Green River could be inhibited during higher flows from the Flaming Gorge Dam due to lack of suitable habitat. Little research has been conducted to evaluate an optimal range of flow increases (“flow spikes”) needed to disrupt smallmouth bass reproduction in the Green River. Current research proposals to evaluate the effectiveness of flow spikes on controlling smallmouth bass reproduction target post-spawning flows of 4,500 cfs, maintained for three days, to inundate side-channel spawning habitats. In this report, we present results of a topographic study of smallmouth bass spawning sites in the upper Green River to characterize flow levels needed to inundate spawning habitats. This study used remotely sensed Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data collected along the entire Green River, including channel margins and floodplain areas, to model water surface elevations and flow spikes needed to connect and inundate smallmouth bass spawning sites.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal Characterization and Exhumation of Northwest San Juan Basin Area, NM

The San Juan Basin (SJB), located in southwestern Colorado northwestern New Mexico, containing Paleozoic through middle Cenozoic strata, formed as a partitioned basin approximately 80 Ma in response to the Laramide orogeny. The SJB is a commercially mature, petroleum-producing basin, and currently being explored for CCUS and geothermal resources. Modern heat flow within the SJB is spatially variable with higher geothermal gradients in its northern and eastern portions. The temporal history of the basin thermal history is essential for understanding capacity for carbon storage and geothermal exploration. We present thermochronometric analyses of two surface and two subsurface samples to constrain spatial-temporal thermal evolution of the northwestern San Juan Basin. Apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronometric analyses were conducted on Cliff House and Kirtland Formation outcrops and subsurface samples of the Ojo Alamo and Pictured Cliffs Formations from a DOE funded, CCUS project pilot-well. In addition, vitrinite reflectance data and 1D basin modelling constrain possible time-temperature pathways of the samples in an area where no previous studies have constrained the uplift/exhumation of the Hogback Monocline using thermochronometry. Modeling suggests that elevated subsurface temperatures developed simultaneously with regional late Oligiocene volcanism in the San Juan Volcanic field and timing of maximum burial in the SJB. Late Miocene to Pliocene cooling/exhumation through the apatite (U-Th)/He partial retention zone support stratigraphic evidence of the Colorado Plateau uplift, possibly regional epeirogenic uplift driven by mantle processes.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

225 Ac-MACROPATATE: A Novel α-Particle Peptide Receptor Radionuclide Therapy for Neuroendocrine Tumors

Neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) express somatostatin receptors (SSTRs) 2 and 5. Modified variants of somatostatin, the cognate ligand for SSTR2 and SSTR5, are used in treatment for metastatic and locoregional disease. Peptide receptor radionuclide therapy with 177 Lu-DOTATATE (DOTA-octreotate), a β-particle–emitting somatostatin derivative, has demonstrated survival benefit in patients with SSTR-positive NETs. Despite excellent results, a subset of patients has tumors that are resistant to treatment, and alternative agents are needed. Targeted α-particle therapy has been shown to kill tumors that are resistant to targeted β-particle therapy, suggesting that targeted α-particle therapy may offer a promising treatment option for patients with 177 Lu-DOTATATE–resistant disease. Although DOTATATE can chelate the clinically relevant α-particle–emitting radionuclide 225 Ac, the labeling reaction requires high temperatures, and the resulting radioconjugate has suboptimal stability. Methods: We designed and synthesized MACROPATATE (MACROPA-octreotate), a novel radioconjugate capable of chelating 225 Ac at room temperature, and assessed its in vitro and in vivo performance. Results: MACROPATATE demonstrated comparable affinity to DOTATATE (dissociation constant, 21 nM) in U2-OS-SSTR2, a SSTR2-positive transfected cell line. 225 Ac-MACROPATATE demonstrated superior serum stability at 37°C over time compared with 225 Ac-DOTATATE. Biodistribution studies demonstrated higher tumor uptake of 225 Ac-MACROPATATE than of 225 Ac-DOTATATE in mice engrafted with subcutaneous H69 NETs. Therapy studies showed that 225 Ac-MACROPATATE exhibits significant antitumor and survival benefit compared with saline control in mice engrafted with SSTR-positive tumors. However, the increased accumulation of 225 Ac-MACROPATATE in liver and kidneys and subsequent toxicity to these organs decreased its therapeutic index compared with 225 Ac-DOTATATE. Conclusion: 225 Ac-MACROPATATE and 225 Ac-DOTATATE exhibit favorable therapeutic efficacy in animal models. Because of elevated liver and kidney accumulation and lower administered activity for dose-limiting toxicity of 225 Ac-MACROPATATE, 225 Ac-DOTATATE was deemed the superior agent for targeted α-particle peptide receptor radionuclide therapy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Integrative Model for Soil Biogeochemistry and Methane Processes. II: Warming and Elevated CO 2 Effects on Peatland CH 4 Emissions

Peatlands are one of the largest natural sources for atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), a potent greenhouse gas. Climate warming and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) are two important environmental factors that have been confirmed to stimulate peatland CH 4 emissions; however, the mechanisms underlying enhanced emissions remain elusive. A data-model integration approach was applied to understand the CH 4 processes in a northern temperate peatland under a gradient of warming and doubled atmospheric CO 2 concentration. We found that warming and elevated CO 2 stimulated CH 4 emissions through different mechanisms. Warming initially stimulated but then suppressed vegetative productivity while stimulating soil organic matter (SOM) mineralization and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fermentation, which led to higher acetate production and enhanced acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Warming also enhanced surface CH 4 emissions, which combined with warming-caused decreases in CH 4 solubility led to slightly lower dissolved CH 4 concentrations through the soil profiles. Elevated CO 2 enhanced ecosystem productivity and SOM mineralization, resulting in higher DOC and acetate concentrations. Higher DOC and acetate concentrations increased acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis and led to higher dissolved CH 4 concentrations and CH 4 emissions. Both warming and elevated CO 2 had minor impacts on CH 4 oxidation. A meta-analysis of warming and elevated CO 2 impacts on carbon cycling in wetlands agreed well with a majority of the modeled mechanisms. Finally, this mechanistic understanding of the stimulating impacts of warming and elevated CO 2 on peatland CH 4 emissions enhances our predictability on the climate-ecosystem feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global seamless tidal simulation using a 3D unstructured-grid model (SCHISM v5.10.0)

We present a new 3D unstructured-grid global ocean model to study both tidal and nontidal processes, with a focus on the total water elevation. Unlike existing global ocean models, the new model resolves estuaries and rivers down to ~8 m without the need for grid nesting. The model is validated with both satellite and in situ observations for elevation, temperature, and salinity. Tidal elevation solutions have a mean complex root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 4.2 cm for M2 and 5.4 cm for all five major constituents in the deep ocean. The RMSEs for the other four constituents, S2, N2, K1, and O1, are, respectively, 2.05, 0.93, 2.08, and 1.34 cm). The nontidal residual assessed by a tide gauge dataset (GESLA) has a mean RMSE of 7 cm. For the first time ever, we demonstrate the potential for seamless simulation on a single mesh from the global ocean into several estuaries along the US West Coast. The model is able to accurately capture the total elevation, even at some upstream stations. The model can therefore potentially serve as the backbone of a global tide surge and compound flooding forecasting framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model code and data: biomass allocation adjustments induced by elevated CO2 and warming in a C3 brackish marsh, 2017-2022, Maryland

This dataset and R script accompany the published paper Bruns et al. (2024) in Geophysical Research Letters. The data are from the first six years of a field manipulation of whole-ecosystem warming and elevated CO2 experiment (Salt Marsh Accretion Response to Temperature eXperiment, or SMARTX) in the Smithsonian's Global Change Research Wetland (GCReW), a brackish, microtidal wetland site on a subestuary of the Chesapeake Bay. These data were generated to understand how warming and elevated CO2 interact to structure ecosystem-level responses to global change, particularly in terms of carbon sequestration. The dataset covers 2017-2022 and includes peak annual above ground biomass, annual belowground fine root productivity, and porewater NH4 for each experimental plot. The overall experiment is replicated in two locations on the marsh, a lower elevation zone dominated the C3 sedge S. Americanus and a higher elevation plot dominated by the C4 species. This paper and its data release is only for the C3 plot. Variable descriptions for data file is available in variable_descriptions.pdf. The R script Bruns_et_al_2024_GRL_make_figures.Rmd contains model code and other scripts used to generate all paper figures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Experimental and Multiscale Modeling Insights for Radiation-Driven Neptunium Redox Processes at Elevated Temperatures

Studies of the radiation-driven reactions of actinide elements at elevated temperatures are extremely limited, but important given that radiation heating of used nuclear fuel can affect the radiolytically promoted actinide redox processes occurring in hydroprocessing environments. Under these conditions, the high concentration of nitric acid present makes the reaction of actinides, such as neptunium, with nitric acid radiolysis products significant. Therefore, here we present derivation of the rate coefficients for the reaction of pentavalent neptunium with the nitrate radical at elevated temperature, resulting in Eyring and Arrhenius parameters for this important reaction. Here, we also revisit our previously published multiscale model predictions for radiation-induced neptunium redox chemistry and present an iteration which successfully operates over a wider range of nitric acid concentrations, 0.1–6.0 M.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2023

The interactive indoor-outdoor building energy modeling for enhancing the predictions of urban microclimates and building energy demands

There is a lack of an urban building energy modeling framework that considers the influence of surrounding buildings and local urban climate on building thermal performance. This can lead to inaccurate results since the thermal performance of individual buildings is heavily influenced by their surrounding built and climatic environment. This study establishes an interactive indoor-outdoor building energy modeling method to enhance the predictions of urban microclimates and building energy demands by coupling an urban physics model with a physics-based building energy model. Validation of the interactive coupling scheme uses field measurement datasets. Parametric simulation and analysis are conducted to understand the influence of the roof-to-canyon width ratio, canyon orientation, and ground vegetation fraction on canyon temperature, building energy consumption, and energy demand. Furthermore, the impacts of building energy model complexity (e.g., detailed vs. simplified building models) and coupling approaches on canyon temperature and building energy profiles are demonstrated using two case study buildings. In comparison with the one-way coupling approach, cooling energy consumption predicted with the dynamic two-way coupling approach varies by 3.5% and 0.5% for the detailed medium office building model and high-rise building model, respectively, and peak cooling demand varies by 8.4% and 7.0% for the detailed medium office building model and high-rise building model, respectively. Here this study also suggests that adopting a complex two-way coupling approach with environmental data exchange at various elevations is necessary for modeling tall buildings at the urban scale.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-Resolution PM2.5 Concentrations Estimation Based on Stacked Ensemble Learning Model Using Multi-Source Satellite TOA Data

Nepal has experienced severe fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in recent years. However, few studies have focused on the distribution of PM2.5 and its variations in Nepal. Although many researchers have developed PM2.5 estimation models, these models have mainly focused on the kilometer scale, which cannot provide accurate spatial distribution of PM2.5 pollution. Based on Gaofen-1/6 and Landsat-8/9 satellite data, we developed a stacked ensemble learning model (named XGBLL) combined with meteorological data, ground PM2.5 concentrations, ground elevation, and population data. The model includes two layers: a XGBoost and Light GBM model in the first layer, and a linear regression model in the second layer. The accuracy of XGBLL model is better than that of a single model, and the fusion of multi-source satellite remote sensing data effectively improves the spatial coverage of PM2.5 concentrations. Besides, the spatial distribution of the daily mean PM2.5 concentrations in the Kathmandu region under different air conditions was analyzed. The validation results showed that the monthly averaged dataset was accurate (R2 = 0.80 and root mean square error = 7.07). In addition, compared to previous satellite PM2.5 datasets in Nepal, the dataset produced in this study achieved superior accuracy and spatial resolution.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2026

The 2025 Evaluation of Experimental Thermonuclear Reaction Rates (ETR25)

This work describes the formalism for estimating thermonuclear reaction rates for astrophysical applications, emphasizing modern statistical approaches such as Monte Carlo sampling and Bayesian models. We discuss related topics including the calculation of resonance energies from nuclear Q values, indirect estimates of particle partial widths, and matching of reaction rates at elevated temperatures to statistical model results. We have evaluated available experimental data on cross sections, resonance energies and strengths, partial widths, lifetimes, spin-parities, and spectroscopic factors. Based on these results, we have estimated numerical values of 78 experimental charged-particle thermonuclear reaction rates for target nuclei in the A = 2–40 mass region, for temperatures ranging from 1 MK to 10 GK. For each reaction, three rate values are provided: low, median, and high, corresponding to the 16th, 50th, and 84th percentiles, respectively, of the cumulative reaction rate probability density distribution. Additionally, we present the factor uncertainty of each rate at each temperature grid point. These results enable users to sample the reaction rate probability density in nucleosynthesis calculations, facilitating uncertainty estimates of nuclidic abundances. The rates presented here refer to their laboratory values. For use in stellar model simulations, these values need to be corrected for the effects of thermal excitations of the interacting nuclei. For each reaction, we include graphs that illustrate the fractional contributions to the overall reaction rate along with the associated uncertainty. These visuals are designed to assist both stellar modelers and nuclear experimentalists by identifying the primary sources of rate uncertain=^texttx);ty at specific stellar temperatures. A graphical comparison with earlier Monte Carlo rates is also provided.

Nuclear astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Water Table Elevations Using Historical Rasters as Prior Information 2019 - 20430

In cases of complex but only partially known geology and a lack of spatial control in observation well locations, water table elevation estimation is very challenging. In some cases, auxiliary information, such as observations of the movement of tracers, operation of injection and extraction wells, and calibration of groundwater models against the historical elevation data, can be combined with expert judgement to estimate flow directions in areas of sparse data and to aid in the production of more reliable contour maps (and associated rasters) than could be produced by relying on sparse well elevation data alone. Given a historical sequence of these raster maps, the question arises how to automate, to the extent possible, the process of producing new raster maps to reflect data from previous times, the current data and the operation of expert judgement. One solution is to adopt a Bayesian point of view and to regard the historical well elevation data, auxiliary information and historical raster maps as prior information. The well elevations for water table wells, as well as those for injection/extraction wells and the data associated with other relevant variables, can be viewed as predictors for the raster surface. From this prior information, we can, conditional on the values of these predictors for a new time period, compute an expected value map and a standard deviation map for the new raster. These then can be taken to specify a prior predictive distribution for the pixels in the new raster map. Then we condition the pixels, corresponding to water level observation wells within the raster, on the observed values in those wells (which in general will differ from the regression estimate) for the new time period. Given the smoothness of the water table surface, we then smooth the surface of deviations from the mean surface, based on the variograms of the historical rasters, and add this smoothed surface to the regression mean surface. The error structure of the produced raster map is defined by the regression error structure and the error due to smoothing based on the estimated variograms. This methodology has been developed and is being further refined for groundwater monitoring and remediation at LANL. It is a very flexible method that can also be applied with a variety of other predictors applied to model the water level wells in the area of interest over the historical record. The smoothness of the spatial process and its possible evolution over time can then be estimated from the residuals from this regression. This can be augmented by expert hydrogeological opinion based on site topography and hydrogeology. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tropospheric aerosols over the western North Atlantic Ocean during the winter and summer deployments of ACTIVATE 2020: life cycle, transport, and distribution

The Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) is a NASA mission to characterize aerosol–cloud interactions over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO). Such characterization requires understanding of life cycle, composition, transport pathways, and distribution of aerosols over the WNAO. This study uses the GEOS-Chem model to simulate aerosol distributions and properties that are evaluated against aircraft, ground-based, and satellite observations during the winter and summer field deployments in 2020 of ACTIVATE. Transport in the boundary layer (BL) behind cold fronts was a major mechanism for the North American continental outflow of pollution to the WNAO in winter. Turbulent mixing was the main driver for the upward transport of sea salt within and ventilation out of BL in winter. The BL aerosol composition was dominated by sea salt, which increased in the summer, followed by organics and sulfate. Aircraft in situ aerosol measurements provided useful constraints on wet scavenging in GEOS-Chem. The model generally captured observed features such as continental outflow, land–ocean gradient, and mixing of anthropogenic aerosols with sea salt. Model sensitivity experiments with elevated smoke injection heights to the mid-troposphere (versus within BL) better reproduced observations of smoke aerosols from the western US wildfires over the WNAO in the summer. Model analysis suggests strong hygroscopic growth of sea salt particles and their seeding of marine BL clouds over the WNAO (< 35° N). Future modeling efforts should focus on improving parameterizations for aerosol wet scavenging, implementing realistic smoke injection heights, and applying high-resolution models that better resolve vertical transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗