Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “economic dispatch”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6

Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study

The Eastern Interconnection (EI) is one of the largest power systems in the world, and its size and complexity have historically made it difficult to study in high levels of detail in a modeling environment. In order to understand how this system might be impacted by high penetrations (30% of total annual generation) of wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) during steady state operations, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) conducted the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS). This study investigates certain aspects of the reliability and economic efficiency problem faced by power system operators and planners. Specifically, the study models the ability to meet electricity demand at a 5-minute time interval by scheduling resources for known ramping events, while maintaining adequate reserves to meet random variation in supply and demand, and contingency events. To measure the ability to meet these requirements, a unit commitment and economic dispatch (UC&ED) model is employed to simulate power system operations. The economic costs of managing this system are presented using production costs, a traditional UC&ED metric that does not include any consideration of long-term fixed costs. ERGIS simulated one year of power system operations to understand regional and sub-hourly impacts of wind and PV by developing a comprehensive UC&ED model of the EI. In the analysis, it is shown that, under the study assumptions, generation from approximately 400 GW of combined wind and PV capacity can be balanced on the transmission system at a 5-minute level. In order to address the significant computational burdens associated with a model of this detail we apply novel computing techniques to dramatically reduce simulation solve time while simultaneously increasing the resolution and fidelity of the analysis. Our results also indicate that high penetrations of wind and PV (collectively variable generation (VG)), significantly impact the operation of traditional generating resources and cause these resources to be used less frequently and operate across a broader output range because wind and PV have lower operating costs and variable output levels.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cross-Border Electricity Trade between India and Sri Lanka: Impact on Power System Operations

Recent developments in South Asia have the potential to increase the incentives for cross-border energy trade (CBET) between India and Sri Lanka. India's surplus power, including from its rapid expansion of wind and solar generation, provides an incentive for it to increase investment returns through exports. Sri Lanka is considering options to increase its power supply, and CBET could alleviate the need for investments in new thermal generation capacity, while giving it access to India's large and diverse power system. Finally, CBET can facilitate renewable energy (RE) integration by allowing the two countries to more efficiently harness balancing resources and smooth out wind and solar variability over larger geographic areas. This study builds on several prior analyses of a potential high-voltage direct current transmission link between India and Sri Lanka. Uniquely, the study makes use of a detailed one-year, 30-minute resolution unit commitment and economic dispatch (UC&ED) model of both countries to examine the technical and economic impacts of CBET between India and Sri Lanka in the year 2025. The study finds that CBET, enabled by a 500-MW high voltage direct current transmission link, could generate annual production cost savings of USD 180 million and improve power system operations. Through better utilization of the most efficient generators, generation from relatively expensive natural gas plants in Sri Lanka is displaced by lower cost imports from India. In addition, increased flexibility through exports reduces RE curtailment in India's Southern region by 400 GWh annually. While the study captures many previously unconsidered intertemporal operational constraints, it does not provide a complete characterization of system operations with a high-voltage direct current interconnection. Additional work should include a dynamic analysis of system stability following interruptions to the direct current interconnection, an AC power flow analysis and consideration of any non-technical barriers to trade which might prevent the optimization of CBET between India and Sri Lanka at 30-minute timescales.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Cross-Border Energy Trade between Nepal and India: Assessment of Trading Opportunities

This study builds on several prior analyses of cross-border energy trading in South Asia to explore the potential trading opportunities between India, Nepal, and the larger South Asia region, including Bangladesh and Bhutan. It uses a detailed one-year, 1-hour resolution unit commitment and economic dispatch model of the South Asia power system to examine the technical and economic impacts of imports and exports under different assumptions about hydropower development in Nepal and regional trade agreements in the year 2022.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The importance of capturing power system operational details in resource adequacy assessments

Traditional methods for assessing the resource adequacy (RA) of a power system are becoming obsolete due to emerging trends such as the increasing deployment of variable renewable energy and storage. Consequently, analysts are recommending that RA be assessed using a Monte Carlo simulation approach that models chronological power system operations over many instances of possible operating conditions. However, this approach is necessarily more complex and computationally demanding, which is an obstacle to real-world implementation. Here, in this study, we investigate which operational details of power systems are important to capture in order to accurately evaluate a system's RA, versus details that add complexity but do not meaningfully affect RA results. To do so, we develop a probabilistic RA assessment framework by adapting an existing production cost model and apply it to a case study based on the IEEE Reliability Test System. Our results indicate that multi-year data, storage dispatch, and transmission limits are key details to incorporate. Accurate RA results can be obtained using non-economic dispatch strategies as long as they are coordinated with detailed operational strategies. We also demonstrate how popular expectation-based RA metrics can mask important differences in the characteristics of loss of load events.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A matheuristic for design and dispatch of a utility-connected distributed energy system

Modeling distributed power generation systems often requires complicated mathematical expressions that present challenges for commercial optimization solvers. Here, this paper presents a matheuristic to solve a mixed-integer optimization model that informs decisions regarding the design and dispatch of a utility-connected microgrid. We deploy a genetic algorithm to search the system design space and a linear program to solve the economic dispatch problem. The model is a component of a web tool that requires solutions within a few minutes. Our method yields objective function values within 5% of an exogenously produced optimal in fewer than 30 seconds for 90% of our test cases compared to only 10% of our test cases by a traditional optimization solver in the same amount of time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evaluation of Hybrid FPOG Applications in Regulated and Deregulated Markets Using HERON

Recent changes in the U.S. energy market, such as low natural gas prices and increased electricity production for variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, have led to an economic crisis for existing light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPP). Many owners and operators of LWRs have elected to decommission these plants rather than continue using them as consistent sources of clean baseload power. This has led to exploration of various possibilities to increase the economic viability of these units, including market restructuring to monetize benefits LWRs already provide to the grid through ancillary markets, load following and economic dispatch, and possible integration of secondary systems directly to the NPP for production of additional products through technologies such as hydrogen electrolysis or water desalination. Previous studies have considered the technologies associated with these Integrated Energy Systems (IES) activities, and the analysis of markets for these secondary products. To analyze the economic viability of various system configurations including IES, especially given the uncertainty surrounding load demand, electricity prices, and the availability of VRE resources, the stochastic technoeconomic analysis package HERON (Heuristic Energy Resource Optimization Network) was released earlier this year as an extension of the risk analysis framework RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual Environment). HERON focuses foremost on making the complex uncertainty quantification analysis tools approachable for energy systems analysts, also providing general dispatch optimization algorithms for those workflows. HERON continues to be improved and tested as a significant part of the IES viability analyses performed in this work. HERON is not a capacity expansion model. To consider market and grid energy system development in a variety of scenarios, HERON is best used in coupling with modelling tools such as US-REGEN, which sacrifice some of the uncertainty analysis and resolution of HERON's modelling for the ability to efficiently predict the change in the grid energy system's profile due to economic drivers over decades. HERON can then use this information to explore the economic viability of introducing changes to the predicted outcomes, such as the introduction of an IES. In this work, experts at EPRI using US-REGEN provide six projection scenarios for use in HERON stochastic technoeconomic analysis (STEA) in considering the options available for increasing LWR economic viability through introduction of a hydrogen-centric IES using a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant (HTSE), hydrogen storage, and a constant-rate contracted hydrogen consumer. The results obtained are differential in nature; they do not report expected profits for any configuration, but rather report on the possible increase in the NPV of a configuration with respect to a baseline no-IES configuration. Due to the uncertainty captured in the variable net load of the systems, there is likewise uncertainty in the mean values reported. We consider this viability both in terms of a regulated market, where the energy producers and IES are owned and operated by single entity, as well as a deregulated market, where the IES chooses its bid for electricity generation and is then dispatched by the grid system operator. Results indicate that for deregulated markets, the inclusion of the IES is often statistically beneficial. This is especially true in policies that are not favorable towards nuclear, as nuclear is less often dispatched and is forced to deal with frequent idle capacity. In the nominal case as well as the case of carbon tax policies, inclusion of the IES clearly benefited the economic performance of the NPP. In the regulated case, however, there was a trend towards minimizing the IES, likely due to the optimal sizing performed by US-REGEN of the NPP within the system as well as the lack of penalty for idle capacity at the NPP in the regulated market analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Reassessing the Market—Computation Interface to Enhance Grid Security and Efficiency

The goal of this project is to reconsider core market and reliability processes that can potentially yield to transformative advances in power grid security, reliability, and efficiency. Current electric power market designs are strongly a function of computing capabilities and limitations that were available in the mid-to-late 1990s, circa deregulation. This includes constructs such as: (1) a 2-tiered day-ahead/real-time market construct; and (2) linearized (“DC”) real power flow approximations in dispatch and pricing. At that time, state-of-the-art computational capabilities could at the limit address deterministic mixed-integer programming formulations of unit commitment (UC) and linear programming formulations of economic dispatch (ED) at limited fidelity and scale. Such constraints forced limited look-ahead time-horizons, crude approximations of AC power flow physics and operations, and artificial partitioning between day-ahead markets, hour(s)-ahead reliability processes, and real-time markets. Consequently, these limitations have resulted in limited security and reliability with increasing out-of-market payments, particularly as uncertainty associated with renewables and distributed energy resources grows.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Solar Uncertainty Management and Mitigation for Exceptional Reliability in Grid Operations (SUMMER-GO): Project Final Report

The Solar Uncertainty Management and Mitigation for Exceptional Reliability in Grid Operation (SUMMER-GO) project was recently completed through a collaboration among the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Maxar, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the University of Texas at Dallas, the University of California Berkeley, and the University of Colorado Boulder. The project made significant advances in probabilistic solar power forecasting, both through the development of Bayesian model averaging methods for ensemble forecasting and in bringing these and other advancements into practice with Maxar's delivery of operational forecasts to ERCOT. In addition to creating more reliable solar power forecasts, the project developed methods for their utilization in power system operations. These include the development of risk-aware unit commitment and economic dispatch algorithms and methods to reformulate probabilistic forecasts to be used in these power system operational models. Dynamic power system reserve methods were also developed, which have been shown in silico to create economic savings and reliability improvements on an ERCOT-like system as well as financial savings in the ERCOT system through more granular consideration of the uncertainty associated with solar power forecasts. Finally, a situational awareness tool to help grid operators better understand solar power forecast uncertainty in daily operations was developed and extensively vetted.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Hybrid Simulation Framework

HYBRID is a modeling toolset to assess the economic viability of Nuclear-Renewable Integrated Energy Systems (N-R IES). The frameworks enabling this toolset are INL’s RAVEN, its CashFlow plugin and the Modelica language. The toolset includes sample RAVEN workflows performing economic assessments. These workflows consist of: generation of stochastic time series and application of probabilistic analysis and optimization algorithms (RAVEN); a library of Modelica models representing the physical behavior of N-R IES; and the CashFlow plugin mapping physical performance to economic performance. The toolset allows assembling existing and new models such as nuclear reactors, renewable energy sources, energy storage, gas turbines, industrial processes, etc. into an N-R IES. The toolset workflows evaluate the dynamics of the N-R IES responding to stochastic conditions (electricity demand, price, etc.) and optimize the dispatch economics as well as N-R IES capacity planning.

Epiney, Aaron↗

Multi-operator Production Cost Modeling

As contiguous power systems are often operated by several regional system operators, optimization models have traditionally been designed to generate optimal system-wide scheduling decisions. This report introduces an approach to reflect the existence of multiple system operators making scheduling decisions within an interconnected power system. The approach is explicitly designed to reflect each operator's limited knowledge about other regions when making scheduling decisions. Detailed analysis using a modified IEEE Reliability Test System reveals that the approach mimics real system operations by providing imperfect information to each operator about external operations and external constraints. The approach scales to a 78,000-bus model of the Eastern Interconnection, where a regression analysis provides quantitative insight into which constraints cause inefficiencies when improperly managed in a multi-operator simulation. Because the approach generates distinct regional scheduling problems, unit commitment and economic dispatch simulations can be applied to individual regions and solved in parallel, enabling production cost simulations at a previously intractable scale.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Flexible Fully-Decoupled Nuclear Plants with Thermal Energy Storage - Technoeconomic Optimization

New nuclear power plants may be one of the technologies for future zero carbon electricity production. These future systems will however also need significant flexibility to cope with fluctuating demand and large share of intermittent renewable supply, rather than running in conventional baseload generation. The present work explores the use of thermal energy storage (TES) as a buffer between the reactor heat and its conversion to electricity, enabling flexible operation of nuclear plants. The focus is on maximizing flexibility, ideally as full decoupling of the nuclear and power cycle islands, as well as on system efficiency in various modes. A system design presented for a high temperature gas cooled reactor (HTGR) presents a slightly complex solution, as separate high- and low-temperature TES systems are required in order to cover the extended temperature range. Although this configuration imposes certain limitations on the discharge system configuration, it also presents the opportunity to design a more efficient system. For this case in particular, a steam reheat cycle is advantageous. Dynamic models were developed for the decoupled system in order to generate insights into aspects of off design operation and system control. A technoeconomic analysis, furthermore, provides sizing and costing of the component, followed by size and dispatch economic optimization considering energy arbitrage. This optimization shows that in all explored markets, the addition of TES system with the proposed configuration results in positive impact on project net present value. Further sensitivity analyses show impact of multiple inputs and possible technical limitations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Power generation-cooling water Nexus: Impacts of cooling water shortage on power system operation - a simulation case study in Illinois, U.S

Cooling water shortage, frequently attributed to drought and heat waves, poses a significant threat to the operations of thermoelectric power plants and further poses a challenge for the entire power system and environmental stakeholders. Recognizing the critical nexus between power generation and cooling water availability and the potential ability of power generations to adjust generation schedules during cooling water shortages, this paper introduces a security-constrained unit commitment and economic dispatch model considering water-energy nexus. In specific, the model is augmented with a unit-level cooling water requirement (CWR) model and multi-level cooling water availability (CWA) constraints. The unit-level CWR model quantifies the cooling water withdrawal per MWh of power generation, taking into account factors such as thermoelectric generation technologies, cooling system technologies, and environmental parameters. The multi-level CWA constraints incorporate pump-level, plant-level, watershed-level, and forced minimum power constraints, utilizing data derived from actual-based cooling water shortage scenarios. Using a simulation case study in Illinois, United States, this research examines the reliability, economic, and environmental implications of cooling water shortages on power system operations. The results show that Illinois may experience 10-15% daily load curtailment and severe congestion between certain regions from the east to central during cooling water shortages, while once-through and wet-tower units experience a 52% and 17% reduction in power generation. In conclusion, overall cooling water withdrawal decreases by 24-38% as severity intensifies.

Cooling water shortage↗

Liquid Salt Combined-Cycle Pilot Plant Design

The work described in this report is responsive to the Office of Fossil Energy program ‘Energy Storage for Fossil Power Generation.’ This Phase I report has been prepared by Pintail Power LLC, with support from Nexant ECA, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Southern Company Services as a deliverable for the U.S. Department of Energy for NETL Award DE-FE-00320016. The Liquid Salt Combined Cycle™ (LSCC™) technology provides large-scale energy storage integrated with Fossil Electric Generating Units (FEGUs) to meet critical needs in the energy transition by providing: • the lowest cost large-scale storage for time-shifting of renewable energy, • superior fuel efficiency to reduce GHGs from dispatchable resources, • flexible capacity and ramping to balance variability of wind and solar resources, • essential grid stability services to assure reliability of a low-carbon grid. The LSCC approach: • employs equipment that has already been proven in utility service, • uses safe, non-toxic, non-degrading, perpetual-life storage medium, • leverages and repurposes existing FEGU assets, • expands the value stack of energy storage to reduce market, financing, and commodity risks. Pintail Power has developed the LSCC technology to meet the need for reliable, efficient, and cost-effective integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) into a low-carbon electric grid by coupling proven thermal energy storage with proven gas turbines, steam turbines, and heat transfer equipment. This novel approach is intended to address the key issues facing the grid and operators of renewable and fossil generating units including: • Overgeneration and curtailment of renewables, • Need for fast ramping dispatchable resources, • Improved efficiency and flexibility of fossil units, • Additional peaking capacity to support electrification of transportation and heating, • Provision of reliability services to support high penetration of VRE, especially synchronous inertia and fast frequency response. A Technology Readiness assessment by EPRI confirmed that LSCC technology consists of commercially proven hardware used in industrial and utility applications. Although the novel LSCC approach has not yet been demonstrated as a complete system, interfaces between major components have been conservatively specified. A Phase III pilot is planned to demonstrate equipment integration and operation. The patented innovation is removal of the evaporator section from the exhaust heat recovery system, with the evaporation performed by stored energy in a separate steam generator. This arrangement couples renewable and fossil power generation via long-duration energy storage to deliver cost, performance, and operational synergies, including superior charging and discharging flexibility, reduced fuel consumption and lower CO 2 emissions compared to conventional Combined Cycle Power Plants, and low-cost, large-scale energy storage. The LSCC technology is composed of proven equipment integrated with gas turbine exhaust heat in a novel system. During charging, electric heaters raise the salt temperature as it flows from the Cold Salt Tank to the Hot Salt Tank. During discharging, hot salt produces steam from feedwater that is heated with gas turbine exhaust, which also superheats steam to drive a steam turbine. LSCC technology can be added to any combustion-turbine to integrate renewable energy, provide needed grid services, and increase the value of fossil electric generating units based on the technology’s following attributes: • Long-duration storage enables time-shifting of VRE to avoid curtailment and impairment of renewable assets. • Long storage duration combined with fast-charging capability increases arbitrage opportunities by storing more energy when the price is low and discharging more hours when the price is high. • Long storage duration allows resource adequacy to be supplied across multiple days to increase reliability and reduce risk. • The stored energy reduces fuel heat rate and GHG emissions, and increases merit, so the LSCC dispatches earlier and longer to increase the plant’s capacity factor and asset value. • The stored energy enables pre-heating and startup of the steam cycle, without operating the gas turbine, to enable fast startup and ramping when dispatched for discharge. • The steam turbine can operate without the gas turbine so it can provide valuable synchronous inertia during charging without consuming fuel. • Fast frequency response and regulation services can be provided during charging using solid-state heater and pump controls to vary the charge power input in response to grid signals. • The LSCC system can be configured for resilience including black start, islanded/micro-grid operation, and even self-recharging of storage using either gas turbine power or gas turbine exhaust heat. The commercialization plan is to add LSCC technology to existing simple cycle gas turbine power plants with the 50MW GE LM6000 aero-derivative gas turbine as the reference design basis. A Techno-economic assessment of the reference design evaluated the benefits (Levelized Avoided Cost of Energy) and costs (Levelized Cost of Energy). The plant definition included all major systems and budgetary vendor quotes. Pintail Power and NexantECA developed the overall cost estimate for the LSCC plant up to the total plant cost level, following the DOE-NETL cost estimate guidelines at AACE Class 3 (-20%/+30%). This includes the equipment cost, bulk material, direct and indirect labor costs to arrive at the bare erected cost. Engineering costs are factored from the BEC and added to it to arrive at the EPC cost. Process and project contingencies were then factored from the EPC cost and rolled-up to yield the total plant cost of $\$$184 million for 1746 MWh of discharge electricity. • At $\$$105/kWh, the reference plant costs less than any of the Energy Storage Systems evaluated by PNNL in 2020 for the Energy Storage Grand Challenge. Operations and Maintenance cost estimates were scaled from combined cycle practice, assuming that the LSCC unit was co-located with and sharing some labor expense with other units, to arrive at $\$$2.2 million per year. Plant economics were evaluated using prices from the ERCOT Day-Ahead Market for calendar year 2019 (excluding the market disruptions from the COVID pandemic and the February 2020 deep freeze event). Assuming economic dispatch in the ERCOT Day-Ahead market, the reference plant capacity factor would have discharged for 2777 hours at 91.9 MW, a 31.66% capacity factor, with a marginal cost of $\$$25.59/MWh, and a LACE of $\$$82.41/MWh. Fixed charges were calculated according to EIA guidelines to arrive at an LCOE of $\$$83.48. The benefit-to-cost ratio of 0.99 suggests that the reference plant would have been cost-effective and competitive in the market. EPRI interviewed selected utilities to gauge the need for, applicability of and interest in the LSCC system. Several utilities are currently managing increased load growth along with the inclusion of increasing levels of renewable generation, putting pressure on conventional generation by requiring increased turndown requirements and ultimately lower capacity factors. All of the utilities interviewed have CO 2 reduction targets in the 2030-2050 timeframe that will severely limit the participation of fossil generation and require better utilization of carbon free generation. While there is limited opportunity for storage in the current markets, the utilities interviewed stated that there will be a substantial need for long duration energy storage in the future given the expected trends. Utilizing an energy storage system will generally be preferred over new gas capacity in some cases, with the capabilities of the LSCC system being a potential option for retrofit to existing simple cycle gas turbine units, allowing them to deliver greater participation in the market with lower carbon intensity. A technology gap assessment and technology maturation plan identified a pilot-scale demonstration as the final step before commercialization. Key gaps to be addressed during the Phase II FEED (Front-End Engineering Design) are component selection and design, commissioning procedures, and operational procedures and the control system for LSCC charging and discharging. The project team has been expanded to include Wood Group PLC as EPC. The proposed Phase II work leads to a pilot-scale engineering demonstration (TRL 6) to be conducted at Southern Company’s Plant Rowan, where the prototype system will perform “all the functions that will be required of the operational system.” The proposed pilot will facilitate commercialization (TRL-9) by scale-up to utility-scale systems integrated with peaking GTs or directly to facility scale systems using industrial GTs. The conceptual design for the pilot plant focuses on the novel integration aspects of LSCC technology. A slipstream of gas turbine exhaust will feed a waste heat recovery unit coupled to a molten salt steam generator heated by stored energy. The pilot is intended to demonstrate all key operating modes of the LSCC technology during charging, discharging and standby. The pilot equipment will be approximately one-seventh scale of the LM6000 commercial target and is expected to have commercial off-ramp potential for facility-scale applications.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Constructing probabilistic scenarios for wide-area solar power generation

Optimizing thermal generation commitments and dispatch in the presence of high penetrations of renewable resources such as solar energy requires a characterization of their stochastic properties. In this study, we describe novel methods designed to create day-ahead, wide-area probabilistic solar power scenarios based only on historical forecasts and associated observations of solar power production. Each scenario represents a possible trajectory for solar power in next-day operations with an associated probability computed by algorithms that use historical forecast errors. Scenarios are created by segmentation of historic data, fitting non-parametric error distributions using epi-splines, and then computing specific quantiles from these distributions. Additionally, we address the challenge of establishing an upper bound on solar power output. Our specific application driver is for use in stochastic variants of core power systems operations optimization problems, e.g., unit commitment and economic dispatch. These problems require as input a range of possible future realizations of renewables production. However, the utility of such probabilistic scenarios extends to other contexts, e.g., operator and trader situational awareness. Finally, we compare the performance of our approach to a recently proposed method based on quantile regression, and demonstrate that our method performs comparably to this approach in terms of two widely used methods for assessing the quality of probabilistic scenarios: the Energy score and the Variogram score.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Quantifying the Value of Hydropower in the Electric Grid: Final Report

The report summarizes research to Quantify the Value of Hydropower in the Electric Grid. This 3-year DOE study focused on defining value of hydropower assets in a changing electric grid. Methods are described for valuation and planning of pumped storage and conventional hydropower. The project team conducted plant case studies, electric system modeling, market analysis, cost data gathering, and evaluations of operating strategies and constraints. Five other reports detailing these research results are available a project website, www.epri.com/hydrogrid. With increasing deployment of wind and solar renewable generation, many owners, operators, and developers of hydropower have recognized the opportunity to provide more flexibility and ancillary services to the electric grid. To quantify value of services, this study focused on the Western Electric Coordinating Council region. A security-constrained, unit commitment and economic dispatch model was used to quantify the role of hydropower for several future energy scenarios up to 2020. This hourly production simulation considered transmission requirements to deliver energy, including future expansion plans. Both energy and ancillary service values were considered. Addressing specifically the quantification of pumped storage value, no single value stream dominated predicted plant contributions in various energy futures. Modeling confirmed that service value depends greatly on location and on competition with other available grid support resources. In this summary, ten different value streams related to hydropower are described. These fell into three categories; operational improvements, new technologies, and electricity market opportunities. Of these ten, the study was able to quantify a monetary value in six by applying both present day and future scenarios for operating the electric grid. This study confirmed that hydropower resources across the United States contribute significantly to operation of the grid in terms of energy, capacity, and ancillary services. Many potential improvements to existing hydropower plants were found to be cost-effective. Pumped storage is the most likely form of large new hydro asset expansions in the U.S. however, justifying investments in new pumped storage plants remains very challenging with current electricity market economics. Even over a wide range of possible energy futures, up to 2020, no energy future was found to bring quantifiable revenues sufficient to cover estimated costs of plant construction. Value streams not quantified in this study may provide a different cost-benefit balance and an economic tipping point for hydro. Future studies are essential in the quest to quantify the full potential value. Additional research should consider the value of services provided by advanced storage hydropower and pumped storage at smaller time steps for integration of variable renewable resources, and should include all possible value streams such as capacity value and portfolio benefits i.e.; reducing cycling on traditional generation.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

IM3 GO WEST Parameter Search Dataset

GO WEST is an open-source power grid modeling framework for U.S. Western Interconnection, which allows users to tailor the model depending on their research study and science questions. It is developed to address weather and water dynamics, and associated vulnerabilities in this bulk power system. It covers 28 balancing authorities (BA) and 12 states in U.S. Western Interconnection. GO WEST allows users to select different number of nodes and come up with a simplified network by utilizing 10,000 nodal topology of U.S. Western Interconnection created by Texas A&M University. Users can try and select different number of nodes, mathematical formulations (linear programming vs. mixed-integer linear programming), transmission line limit scaling factors, and hurdle rate scaling factors. GO WEST offers a unit commitment and economic dispatch (UC/ED) module to simulate grid operations on an hourly scale. In this sense, users can calibrate and validate their model versions by comparing model outputs to historical datasets. Therefore, GO WEST can help researchers to strike a balance between model fidelity (i.e. accuracy) and computational complexity (i.e. runtime). This dataset includes model inputs and outputs from 600 model versions for each 2019, 2020, and 2021. The folder naming convention is as follows: Exp{Number of Nodes}_{Mathematical Formulation}_{Transmission Line Limit Scaling Factor in MW}_{Hurdle Rate Scaling Factor in %}_{Year}. Linear programming is designated with "simple" label whereas mixed-integer linear programming is designated with "coal" label. For example, "Exp100_simple_1000_50_2019" folder contains inputs and outputs from 2019 model version with 100 nodes, linear programming, +1000 MW transmission line limit scaling factor, and +50% hurdle rate scaling factor. GO WEST GitHub repository hosts all raw datasets, processing scripts, and model scripts. Please refer to the README file for a detailed description of the included files.

Economics↗

Integrating Solar PV in Utility System Operations

This study develops a systematic framework for estimating the increase in operating costs due to uncertainty and variability in renewable resources, uses the framework to quantify the integration costs associated with sub-hourly solar power variability and uncertainty, and shows how changes in system operations may affect these costs. Toward this end, we present a statistical method for estimating the required balancing reserves to maintain system reliability along with a model for commitment and dispatch of the portfolio of thermal and renewable resources at different stages of system operations. We estimate the costs of sub-hourly solar variability, short-term forecast errors, and day-ahead (DA) forecast errors as the difference in production costs between a case with “realistic” PV (i.e., subhourly solar variability and uncertainty are fully included in the modeling) and a case with “well behaved” PV (i.e., PV is assumed to have no sub-hourly variability and can be perfectly forecasted). In addition, we highlight current practices that allow utilities to compensate for the issues encountered at the sub-hourly time frame with increased levels of PV penetration. In this analysis we use the analytical framework to simulate utility operations with increasing deployment of PV in a case study of Arizona Public Service Company (APS), a utility in the southwestern United States. In our analysis, we focus on three processes that are important in understanding the management of PV variability and uncertainty in power system operations. First, we represent the decisions made the day before the operating day through a DA commitment model that relies on imperfect DA forecasts of load and wind as well as PV generation. Second, we represent the decisions made by schedulers in the operating day through hour-ahead (HA) scheduling. Peaking units can be committed or decommitted in the HA schedules and online units can be redispatched using forecasts that are improved relative to DA forecasts, but still imperfect. Finally, we represent decisions within the operating hour by schedulers and transmission system operators as real-time (RT) balancing. We simulate the DA and HA scheduling processes with a detailed unit-commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED) optimization model. This model creates a least-cost dispatch and commitment plan for the conventional generating units using forecasts and reserve requirements as inputs. We consider only the generation units and load of the utility in this analysis; we do not consider opportunities to trade power with neighboring utilities. We also do not consider provision of reserves from renewables or from demand-side options. We estimate dynamic reserve requirements in order to meet reliability requirements in the RT operations, considering the uncertainty and variability in load, solar PV, and wind resources. Balancing reserve requirements are based on the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile of 1-min deviations from the HA schedule in a previous year. We then simulate RT deployment of balancing reserves using a separate minute-by-minute simulation of deviations from the HA schedules in the operating year. In the simulations we assume that balancing reserves can be fully deployed in 10 min. The minute-by-minute deviations account for HA forecasting errors and the actual variability of the load, wind, and solar generation. Using these minute-by-minute deviations and deployment of balancing reserves, we evaluate the impact of PV on system reliability through the calculation of the standard reliability metric called Control Performance Standard 2 (CPS2). Broadly speaking, the CPS2 score measures the percentage of 10-min periods in which a balancing area is able to balance supply and demand within a specific threshold. Compliance with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) reliability standards requires that the CPS2 score must exceed 90% (i.e., the balancing area must maintain adequate balance for 90% of the 10-min periods). The combination of representing DA forecast errors in the DA commitments, using 1-min PV data to simulate RT balancing, and estimates of reliability performance through the CPS2 metric, all factors that are important to operating systems with increasing amounts of PV, makes this study unique in its scope.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

IM3 Projected U.S. Western Interconnection Grid Stress Dataset

This dataset provides projected grid stress and reliability results (including all model inputs and outputs from GO WEST and TEP) for Integrated Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) Phase 2 simulations across eight different scenarios for the U.S. Western Interconnection through 2055. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States from a set of Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) simulations. These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 GO WEST is an open-source power grid modeling framework for the U.S. Western Interconnection, which allows users to tailor the model depending on their research study and science questions. It covers 28 balancing authorities (BAs) and 12 states in U.S. Western Interconnection. GO WEST allows users to select different number of nodes and come up with a simplified network by utilizing 10,000 nodal topology of the U.S. Western Interconnection (ACTIVSg10k). Users can select different number of nodes, mathematical formulations (linear programming vs. mixed-integer linear programming), transmission line limit scaling factors, and hurdle rate scaling factors. GO WEST offers a unit commitment and economic dispatch (UC/ED) module to simulate grid operations on an hourly scale. In this sense, users can calibrate and validate their model versions by comparing model outputs to historical datasets. TEP is an open-source transmission capacity expansion model, built on the GO WEST framework. It utilizes linear programming to optimize transmission capacity addition investment on existing lines within the GO WEST framework. The TEP model only increases the thermal capacity of existing transmission lines and does not add new lines to the system, which leaves the topology preserved. In order to use TEP model, users need to create scenarios with the GO WEST framework. Please refer to README file for a detailed description of the dataset including individual files and references.

Capacity Expansion Model↗