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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of Water Table Fluctuation on Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Wetland Soils in the Peruvian Amazon

Amazonian swamp forests remove large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) but produce methane (CH 4 ). Both are important greenhouse gases (GHG). Drought and cultivation cut the CH 4 emissions but may release CO 2 . Varying oxygen content in nitrogen-rich soil produces nitrous oxide (N 2 O), which is the third most important GHG. Despite the potentially tremendous changes, GHG emissions from wetland soils under different land uses and environmental conditions have rarely been compared in the Amazon. We measured environmental characteristics, and CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from the soil surface with manual opaque chambers in three sites near Iquitos, Peru from September 2019 to March 2020: a pristine peat swamp forest, a young forest and a slash-and-burn manioc field. The manioc field showed moderate soil respiration and N 2 O emission. The peat swamp forests under slight water table drawdown emitted large amounts of CO 2 and CH 4 . A heavy post-drought shower created a hot moment of N 2 O in the pristine swamp forest, likely produced by nitrifiers. All in all, even small changes in soil moisture can create hot moments of GHG emissions from Amazonian wetland soils, and should therefore be carefully monitored.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic fracture generation and thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling in an equivalent continuum framework for enhanced geothermal systems

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) involve fracturing low permeability material to establish well connectivity and then injecting and circulating fluid into the fractured subsurface for geothermal power production. Changes in fracture aperture from contraction of the cooling matrix rock may alter network connectivity and risk thermal short-circuiting. Thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models are a useful tool to study these processes. However, as fracture networks are complex, and data may be limited, fracture networks in THM models are often stochastically generated. Given reliance on stochastic fracture networks and THM modeling to represent the subsurface and assess productivity of EGS, increased understanding of the influence of such statistically derived fracture networks on flow and heat transport in THM models is needed. Here, a new fracture process model is developed in the reactive transport code PFLOTRAN to stochastically generate fracture families and simulate changes in fracture aperture over time due to temperature changes of the rock matrix. Sixty-four different fracture networks ranging from well to poorly-connected, are modeled in PFLOTRAN with and without mechanical processes (THM vs TH). Results indicate that for well-connected fracture networks, thermal short-circuiting is less of a concern due to the abundance of available alternative flowpaths. For poorly-connected fracture networks, inclusion of mechanical processes showed steep thermal drawdown coincident with increase in fracture aperture along developing colder flowpaths, demonstrating the risk of thermal short-circuiting. Simulations with additional, larger fractures engineered to establish connectivity in a poorly-fractured subsurface, indicate that while stochastic variation of fracture orientation of the background network had limited influence, such variation in the engineered fractures significantly affected flow and heat transport.

Discrete fracture networks (DFN)↗
DOE OSTI2018

Effectiveness of supercritical-CO 2 and N 2 huff-and-puff methods of enhanced oil recovery in shale fracture networks using microfluidic experiments

Current oil recovery methods in hydraulically fractured shale reservoirs have a low recovery efficiency of about 10%. The objective of this work is to investigate the effectiveness of nitrogen and supercritical carbon dioxide in the huff-and-puff method for enhanced oil recovery as a means to re-energize reservoirs and improve recovery rates. Here, we conduct direct visualization experiments with a microfluidic system to reveal the mechanisms and to quantify the recovery rates of oil from fracture networks. We compared the effectiveness of water, nitrogen and supercritical carbon dioxide at reservoir conditions in a process mimicking the huff-and-puff method in both dead-end and connected fracture systems. The microfluidic chips were made of glass and placed in a confining pressure system pressurized to 10 MPa, 50 °C. The system was allowed to equilibrate, and then depressurized to simulate huff-and-puff oil recovery. Fluorescence microscope images were continuously taken to visualize and calculate residual oil saturation as a function of pressure drawdown. As the system was depressurized from 10 MPa, gas exsolution from the oil liquid phase, including bubble nucleation, growth, and coalescence, appeared to be the main driver for mobilizing oil from the fracture networks. Injection of supercritical CO 2 resulted in the highest recovery rate with an average end-point recovery of about 90% in the connected fracture network and 60% in the dead-end fracture network. N 2 has lower solubility in oil and hence showed a lower recovery rate of 40% in the connected fracture network and 25% in the dead-end fracture network. Injection of water had no effect on oil mobilization since water is insoluble, immiscible and incompressible. The main mechanism of enhanced recovery was gas exsolution from the liquid phase as pressure was decreased below the bubble point pressure. Because the gas was distributed throughout the oil phase, bubble nucleation, growth, coalescence, and elongation occurred throughout the fracture network. Expansion of the gas forced oil out of the network through piston displacement in continuous oil areas and film flow in the dispersed oil areas. Bubbles began as spheres and grew until they touched the fracture walls where they elongated along the fracture length. The bubble growth rate depended on local mass transfer from liquid to gas phase and gas volume expansion due to pressure drop. The efficiency of the huff-and-puff process is dependent on the solubility and miscibility of the injection fluid with oil. High gas solubility allows for more bubble nucleation, growth and expansion during the depressurization cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulation of axial tensile well deformation during reservoir compaction in offshore unconsolidated methane hydrate-bearing formation

Sand production encountered in the 2013 offshore field gas production tests at the Nankai Trough, Japan, could be attributed to well failure during reservoir compaction. In this study, well integrity under various reservoir compaction patterns for the Nankai Trough case is examined using a well-formation finite element model. Here, the modelling details include the inclusion of a cement sheath as well as the modelling of construction processes (such as cement shrinkage). Well elongation in the overburden layer becomes significant when the reservoir subsidence is localized near the wellbore under large depressurization. Results show that the maximum plastic deviatoric strain level in the cement could reach 0.7% when the maximum reservoir subsidence reaches 0.85 m and cement shrinkage is limited. When cement shrinkage rises to 0.75%, the maximum plastic deviatoric strain increases to 2.4% as the cement accumulates additional plastic strain during shrinkage due to its deformation being constrained by the casing. In order to prevent the cement from failure, it might be effective to hold the pressure drawdown at a low level (e.g., several MPa) until the hydrate dissociation front advances to a certain radius from the well (e.g., a couple of tens of metres).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-economic feasibility of geothermal energy production using inactive oil and gas wells for district heating and cooling systems in Tuttle, Oklahoma

Oil and gas wells have been drilled in the United States and often encounter hot co-produced water possibly suitable for geothermal direct-use applications. Here this study evaluated geothermal resources, heating and cooling demand, and techno-economic potential of four oil and gas wells repurposed for geothermal energy production to serve two public schools and 250 nearby houses in Tuttle, Oklahoma, USA. Subsurface geology in the study area primarily consists of Permian to Mississippian sandstone and limestone formations approximately from 2 km to 3.5 km depth. With a geothermal gradient of 25.3 °C/km, the temperature of geothermal energy production was estimated as 68.2 °C at 2.1 km. The potential of calcite scaling within boreholes and pipes was minimal. Using the characterized reservoir properties, techno-economic analyses were conducted for evaluating levelized costs of geothermal energy production for direct-use heating and cooling and district heating systems with five different production scenarios. Heating and cooling demand in two schools and 250 houses and additional 0.3 MW and 0.6 MW base heating loads for potential geothermal direct-use applications in the study area were also incorporated in the modeling. Results indicated that the levelized cost of heating of geothermal district heating systems utilizing existing wells were significantly lower than those of conventional geothermal energy systems that include well drillings. The geothermal energy production with doublet and quartet configurations was generally sufficient to supply total annual heating demand in the district, while a peaking boiler was used to supply peak loads. Doublet configurations showed higher production temperature with a lower thermal drawdown than the quartet configurations. The doublet system at 2.1 km production depth with 9.3 kg/s flow rate represented the optimal levelized cost of $71/MWh and 91.2% utilization factor. These results imply that the Tuttle geothermal district heating system is techno-economically feasible and comparable to geothermal district heating systems in the United States and the regional natural gas rate for residentials by recycling inactive oil and gas wells with no drillings.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Iron isotope fractionation during pyrite formation in a sulfidic Precambrian ocean analogue

We present that the chemical response of the Precambrian oceans to rising atmospheric O 2 levels remains controversial. The iron isotope signature of sedimentary pyrite is widely used to trace the microbial and redox states of the ocean, yet the iron isotope fractionation accompanying pyrite formation in nature is difficult to constrain due to the complexity of the pyrite formation process, difficulties in translating the iron isotope systematics of experimental studies to natural settings, and insufficient iron isotope datasets for natural euxinic (i.e. anoxic and sulfidic) marine basins where pyrite formation occurs. Herein we demonstrate, that a large, permil-level shift in the isotope composition of dissolved iron occurs in the Black Sea euxinic water column during syngenetic pyrite formation. Specifically, iron removal to syngenetic pyrite gives rise to an iron isotope fractionation factor between Fe(II) and FeS 2 of 2.75 permil (‰), the largest yet reported for reactions under natural conditions that do not involve iron redox chemistry. These iron isotope systematics offer the potential to generate permil-level shifts in the sedimentary pyrite iron isotope record due to partial drawdown of the oceanic iron inventory. The implication is that the iron stable isotope signatures of sedimentary pyrites may record fundamental regime shifts between pyrite formation under sulfur-limited conditions and pyrite formation under iron-limited conditions. To this end, the iron isotope signatures of sedimentary pyrite may best represent the extent of euxinia in the past global ocean, rather than its oxygenation state. On this basis, the reinterpreted sedimentary pyrite Fe isotope record suggests a fundamental shift towards more sulfidic oceanic conditions coincident with the ‘Great Oxidation Event’ around 2.3 billion years ago. Importantly, this does not require the chemical state of the ocean to shift from mainly de-oxygenated to predominantly oxygenated in parallel with the permanent rise in atmospheric oxygen, contrary to other interpretations based on iron isotope systematics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Modeling of heat extraction from variably fractured porous media in Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Modeling of heat extraction in Enhanced Geothermal Systems is presented. The study builds on recent studies on the use of directional wells to improve heat transfer between doublet injection and production wells. The current study focuses on the influence of fracture orientation on production temperature in deep low permeability geothermal systems, and the effects of directional drilling and separation distance between boreholes on heat extraction. The modeling results indicate that fracture orientation with respect to the well-pair plane has significant influence on reservoir thermal drawdown. As a result, the vertical well doublet is impacted significantly more than the horizontal well doublet

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Opportunities for increasing CO 2 storage in deep, saline formations by active reservoir management and treatment of extracted formation water: Case study at the GreenGen IGCC facility, Tianjin, PR China

Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) seeks beneficial applications for CO 2 recovered from fossil fuel combustion. This study evaluated the potential for removing formation water to create additional storage capacity for CO 2 , while simultaneously treating the produced water for beneficial use. Furthermore, the process would control pressures within the target formation, lessen the risk of caprock failure, and better control the movement of CO 2 within that formation. The project plans to highlight the method of using individual wells to produce formation water prior to injecting CO 2 as an efficient means of managing reservoir pressure. Because the pressure drawdown resulting from pre-injection formation water production will inversely correlate with pressure buildup resulting from CO 2 injection, it can be proactively used to estimate CO 2 storage capacity and to plan well-field operations. The project studied the GreenGen site in Tianjin, China where Huaneng Corporation is capturing CO 2 at a coal fired IGCC power plant. Known as the Tianjin Enhanced Water Recovery (EWR) project, local rock units were evaluated for CO 2 storage potential and produced water treatment options were then developed. Average treatment cost for produced water with a cooling water treatment goal ranged from 2.27 to 2.96 US$/m 3 (recovery 95.25%), and for a boiler water treatment goal ranged from 2.37 to 3.18 US$/m 3 (recovery 92.78%). Importance analysis indicated that water quality parameters and transportation are significant cost factors as the injection-extraction system is managed over time. Our study found that in a broad sense, active reservoir management in the context of CCUS/EWR is technically feasible. In addition, criteria for evaluating suitable vs. unsuitable reservoir properties, reservoir storage (caprock) integrity, a recommended injection/withdrawal strategy and cost estimates for water treatment and reservoir management are proposed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 Summary of Scientific Results: Gas Hydrate Systems Along the Eastern Continental Margin of India

The India National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02) discovered gas hydrate at high saturation in sand reservoirs at several sites in the deepwater Bay of Bengal. To assess the potential response of those deposits to scientific depressurization experiments, comprehensive geologic models were constructed to enable numerical simulation for two sites. Both sites (NGHP-02-09 and NGHP-02-16) feature thick sequences of thinly-interbedded reservoir and non-reservoir facies at sub-seafloor depths less than 300m and sub-sea depths of 2400m or more. These settings pose significant challenges to current modeling capabilities. First, the thinly-interbedded reservoir architecture complicates the determination of basic reservoir parameters from both log and core data due to measurement resolution issues. Secondly, the fine scale variation in sediment properties imparts great contrasts in key parameters over very short distances, creating high gradients at multiple scales and varying orientations that necessitate careful design of high-definition simulation grids. Thirdly, the deposits include internal sources of water, as well as a range of complex boundary conditions, including variable permeability within the overlying mud-rich “seals,” that complicate reservoir depressurization. Lastly, because of the unique combination of great water depth and relatively shallow sub-seafloor depth: models designed to maximize the dissociation rate impose large pressure drawdowns on relatively low-strength sediments. This condition renders the proper evaluation and integration of the geomechanical response to hydrate dissociation critical. In this report, we review the history of gas hydrate reservoir simulation, discuss methods for creating geologic input models, and summarize the key findings and implications of the collaborative NGHP-02 numerical simulation effort. Together, the studies confirm the viability of the modeled accumulations for scientific testing and identify key challenges related to the selection of specific test sites and the design of test wells.

Collett, Tim↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cascading economic losses from port disruptions under capacity constrained multimodal freight networks

This study quantifies how throughput disruptions at major seaports cascade through capacity-constrained multimodal freight networks and interregional production systems. We couple an agent-based model (ABM) multimodal freight simulation that resolves rerouting, terminal queueing, and inventory drawdown under binding modal and facility capacities with a multiregional output loss input-output (MRIIM) model that propagates realized delivery shortfalls across regions and sectors. The framework is demonstrated for the Port of Los Angeles using Freight Analysis Framework flows and Bureau of Economic Analysis input-output accounts and is evaluated over a 52-week horizon under deterministic sector targeted shocks and stochastic disruption realizations with uncertain severity and duration. Results indicate nonlinear amplification: realized national losses concentrate in manufacturing and transportation/warehousing even when exogenous port shocks are dispersed, suggesting that congestion spillback and limited short-run substitution can dominate the initial shock allocation. We further evaluate a tabular reinforcement-learning (Q-learning) intervention layer that selects among a small set of implementable system level levers (truck-to-rail and truck-to-barge shift settings) without overriding shipper routing, finding that such interventions reduce total losses for moderate disruptions but yield diminishing returns once substitute modes approach capacity. By linking operational freight behavior to system wide impacts under uncertainty, the proposed ABM-MRIIM pipeline provides a reusable workflow for port disruption stress testing, identification of structurally critical sectors/corridors, and evaluation of resilience interventions under realistic capacity limits.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

The maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco affects CO2 refixation in temperate broadleaved forest trees

Mesophyll resistance to CO 2 diffusion (rm) and the maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco (Vcmax) affect photosynthetic rates, and can potentially also influence the percentage of respiratory and photorespiratory CO 2 being refixated (Pr) by mesophyll cells. Here we investigated how various leaf anatomical traits (e.g. leaf mass per area [LMA] and leaf dry matter content [LDMC]) influenced rm in leaves of mature forest trees. We further explored how rm and Vcmax in turn affected Pr, and if these traits varied among species and leaves along a light gradient. Photosynthetic CO 2 response of leaves grown in high-, medium-, and low-light environments was measured, from Pinus sylvestris [Scots pine], Picea abies [Norway spruce], Quercus robur [English oak], and Betula pendula [Silver birch] in southern Sweden. A modified version of the Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry model was fitted to the leaf gas exchange data to estimate Vcmax, rm and Pr. We found that of all leaf traits measured, only LMA for Q. robur was significantly higher in leaves from high-light environments. When comparing species, both rm and LMA were significantly higher in the conifers, and rm had a negative correlation with Vcmax. We found that Pr was similar between different species and functional groups, with an average of 73.2% (and SD of ±10.4) across all species. There was a strong, positive correlation between Pr and Vcmax in broadleaves, and we hypothesise that this effect might derive from a higher CO 2 drawdown near Rubisco in leaves with high Vcmax.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Changes in inundation drive carbon dioxide and methane fluxes in a temperate wetland

Wetlands cycle carbon by being net sinks for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and net sources of methane (CH 4 ). Daily and seasonal temporal patterns, dissolved oxygen (DO) availability, inundation status (flooded or dry/partially flooded), water depth, and vegetation can affect the magnitude of carbon uptake or emissions, but the extent and interactive effects of these variables on carbon gas fluxes are poorly understood. We characterized the linkages between carbon fluxes and these environmental and temporal drivers at the Old Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve (OWC), OH. We measured diurnal gas flux patterns in an upstream side channel (called the cove) using chamber measurements at six sites (three vegetated and three non-vegetated). We sampled hourly from 7 AM to 7 PM and monthly from July to October 2022. DO concentrations and water levels were measured monthly. Water inundation status had the most influential effect on carbon fluxes with flooded conditions supporting higher CH 4 fluxes (0.39 μmol CH 4 m –2 s –1 ; –1.23 μmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ) and drier conditions supporting higher CO 2 fluxes (0.03 μmol CH 4 m –2 s –1 ; 0.86 μmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ). When flooded, the wetland was a net CO 2 sink; however, it became a source for both CH 4 and CO 2 when water levels were low. We compared chamber-based gas fluxes from the cove in flooded (July) and dry (August) months to fluxes measured with an eddy covariance tower whose footprint covers flooded portions of the wetland. The diurnal pattern of carbon fluxes at the tower did not vary with changing water levels but remained a CO 2 sink and a CH 4 source even when the cove where we performed the chamber measurements dried out. Furthermore, these results emphasize the role of inundation status on wetland carbon cycling and highlight the importance of fluctuating hydrologic patterns, especially hydrologic drawdowns, under changing climatic conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Large Uptake of Atmospheric OCS Observed at a Moist Old Growth Forest: Controls and Implications for Carbon Cycle Applications

Diurnal and vertical patterns of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) and CO 2 mixing ratios above and within a 60–m–tall old–growth temperate forest are presented. Canopy air from four different heights was sampled in situ using a continuous integrated cavity output spectroscopy analyzer during August–September 2014. Measurements revealed large vertical gradients in OCS, from which we inferred ecosystem fluxes. The diurnal cycle of OCS mixing ratios at all heights exhibited a typical pattern characterized by nighttime drawdown, an early morning minimum, and a maximum of OCS around midday. Daytime increase in the upper canopy is attributed to entrainment of planetary boundary layer air into the canopy. The ecosystem was found to be a large daytime sink of OCS (mean maximum daytime flux ~ –75 pmol · m –2 · s –1 ). Mean leaf relative uptake (concentration normalized uptake of OCS flux to CO2 uptake) was found to be 6.9. We discuss this high leaf relative uptake in the context of the presence and distribution of epiphytes at the site. While epiphytic uptake of OCS has been studied before, we show for the first time that this may contribute significantly to ecosystem fluxes under humid or moist conditions. We test this theory using a chamber experiment measuring epiphytic fluxes for two species of lichen and one moss species (in situ and in a laboratory). Lastly, we suggest that the role of epiphytes should be explicitly considered when using OCS as a tracer of ecosystem–scale photosynthesis in forest ecosystems with abundant epiphytic cover and biomass.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Type–Curve Approach for Evaluating Aquifer Properties by Interpreting Shallow Strain Measured During Well Tests

Strains occur at shallow depths in response to pressure changes during well tests in an underlying aquifer, and recent developments in instrumentation have made it feasible to measure essentially the full strain tensor. Simulations using poroelastic analyses indicate that shallow normal strains are approximately proportional to the logarithm of time when a well is injecting into or pumping from a deep aquifer or reservoir. The drawdown is also a linear function of log time, as shown by the classic Cooper-Jacob type-curve analysis. The time when the semilog straight line intercepts the zero-strain axis is similar to the time determined from the Cooper-Jacob pressure analysis, and it can be used to estimate hydraulic diffusivity, suggesting that horizontal strain data can be used directly to estimate aquifer properties. This approach was validated using measurements from shallow (30-m deep) borehole strainmeters during an injection test at a 530-m-deep sandstone aquifer/reservoir in Oklahoma. The results show intercept times for the shallow normal strain data are essentially the same as for deep pressure data from an equivalent radial distance. The slopes of the semilog plots of the pressure and the strain increase at the same time, suggesting that they both respond to a lateral aquifer boundary. Significantly, though, strain was measured at shallow depths while the pressure data were measured at 530-m depth. This suggests that strain data from shallow depths could be an effective way to improve the characterization of an underlying aquifer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change

Abstract California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate‐change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree‐ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food‐Energy‐Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi‐year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.

Gupta, Rohini S. [School of Civil and Environmenta↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate, Hydrology, and Nutrients Control the Seasonality of Si Concentrations in Rivers

Abstract The seasonal behavior of fluvial dissolved silica (DSi) concentrations, termedDSi regime, mediates the timing of DSi delivery to downstream waters and thus governs river biogeochemical function and aquatic community condition. Previous work identified five distinct DSi regimes across rivers spanning the Northern Hemisphere, with many rivers exhibiting multiple DSi regimes over time. Several potential drivers of DSi regime behavior have been identified at small scales, including climate, land cover, and lithology, and yet the large‐scale spatiotemporal controls on DSi regimes have not been identified. We evaluate the role of environmental variables on the behavior of DSi regimes in nearly 200 rivers across the Northern Hemisphere using random forest models. Our models aim to elucidate the controls that give rise to (a) average DSi regime behavior, (b) interannual variability in DSi regime behavior (i.e., Annual DSi regime), and (c) controls on DSi regime shape (i.e., minimum and maximum DSi concentrations). Average DSi regime behavior across the period of record was classified accurately 59% of the time, whereas Annual DSi regime behavior was classified accurately 80% of the time. Climate and primary productivity variables were important in predicting Average DSi regime behavior, whereas climate and hydrologic variables were important in predicting Annual DSi regime behavior. Median nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were important drivers of minimum and maximum DSi concentrations, indicating that these macronutrients may be important for seasonal DSi drawdown and rebound. Our findings demonstrate that fluctuations in climate, hydrology, and nutrient availability of rivers shape the temporal availability of fluvial DSi.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temporal Variability in Reservoir Surface Area Is an Important Source of Uncertainty in GHG Emission Estimates

Ebullitive methane (CH 4 ) emissions in lentic ecosystems tend to concentrate at river-lake interfaces and within shallow littoral zones. However, inconsistent definitions of the littoral zone and static representations of the lake or reservoir surface area contribute to major uncertainties in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates, particularly in reservoirs with large water-level fluctuations. This study examines temporal variation in littoral and total surface areas of US reservoirs and demonstrates how different methods and data sources lead to discrepencies in reservoir GHG emissions at large scales and over time. We also explore variability in remotely sensed water occurrence according to maximum surface area, reservoir purposes, and hydrologic regions. Notably, the largest relative variability in surface area is exhibited by small reservoirs with a maximum surface area <1 km 2 and non-hydroelectric reservoirs. Additionally, we use a case study of measured CH 4 emissions from the southeastern United States (Douglas Reservoir) to illustrate the effects of varying surface area on reservoir-wide GHG estimates. Upscaled CH 4 emissions in Douglas Reservoir differed by nearly two-fold depending on the source of total surface area data and whether estimates accounted for seasonal fluctuations in surface area. During seasonal drawdown in Douglas Reservoir, relative littoral area varies non-linearly; periods of lower pool elevation (and thus larger relative littoral area) likely contribute disproportionately high CH 4 emission rates compared to the commonly sampled summer season when water levels are at full-pool elevation. Improved GHG monitoring and upscaling techniques require accounting for temporal variability in reservoir surface extent and littoral area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Weakening temperature control on the interannual variations of spring carbon uptake across northern lands

Ongoing spring warming allows the growing season to begin earlier, enhancing carbon uptake in northern ecosystems. We use 34 years of atmospheric CO 2 concentration measurements at Barrow, Alaska (BRW, 71° N) to show that the interannual relationship between spring temperature and carbon uptake has recently shifted. Here, we use two indicators: the spring zero-crossing date of atmospheric CO 2 (SZC) and the magnitude of CO 2 drawdown between May and June (SCC). The previously reported strong correlation between SZC, SCC and spring land temperature (ST) was found in the first 17 years of measurements, but disappeared in the last 17 years. As a result, the sensitivity of both SZC and SCC to warming decreased. Simulations with an atmospheric transport model coupled to a terrestrial ecosystem model suggest that the weakened interannual correlation of SZC and SCC with ST in the last 17 years is attributable to the declining temperature response of spring net primary productivity (NPP) rather than to changes in heterotrophic respiration or in atmospheric transport patterns. Reduced chilling during dormancy and emerging light limitation are possible mechanisms that may have contributed to the loss of NPP response to ST. These results thus challenge the ‘warmer spring–bigger sink’ mechanism.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗