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DOE OSTI2025

Weather-Driven Resilience for Distribution Systems

With increasing billion dollar disasters due to weather events, it is of utmost priority for utility and grid operators to maintain and enhance the resilience of distribution grid. Traditionally, such analysis were conducted with reliability metrics alone. However, with increasing complexity of distribution grid and advancements in grid edge resources, evaluating grid resilience is challenging and involves multi-faceted analysis of the impact of weather events on the distribution grid. This presentation provides background, details, and future works in the field of weather-driven resilience for power distribution systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spatial distribution of sp 3 defects in carbon fibers via time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry

Defects play a significant role in the material properties of carbon fibers (CF). Several defects result in the formation of sp 3 bonds in an otherwise sp 2 -dominant graphitic structure. Understanding the distribution of these defects within CF provides insight into their properties and the effect of manufacturing conditions. Reports showed time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) is capable of characterizing the spatial distribution of sp 2 and sp 3 content in carbon materials. Here, ToF-SIMS was utilized to investigate the spatial distribution of sp 3 defects in T700, T1000, and M46 CF. M46 had the lowest sp 3 content. Center-to-edge analysis revealed that T700 CF had a gradient of sp 3 defects starting from the center and increasing to the edge, whereas M46 CF had a sudden increase in sp 3 defects roughly 1 μm from the edge. Comparatively, T1000 CF had a relatively uniform radial distribution of sp 3 defects, except for a newly identified sp 2 rich region at 0.8 μm from the center. This is hypothesized to originate from a skin–core structure that forms during CF manufacturing. As a result, this work demonstrates the utility of ToF-SIMS for characterizing the spatial distribution of sp 3 defects within CF, establishing new ways to understand CF formation.

Carbon fibers↗

DOE OSTI2026

Estimating the impact of tariff-driven behind-the-meter storage operation on distribution grid investments

Increasing growth of distributed solar photovoltaics (PV) and electric vehicles (EV) can strain local distribution networks and require costly upgrades. Distributed battery storage, often deployed alongside PV, can be used to mitigate those costs, depending on how batteries are operated. This study evaluates the potential deferral value of distributed battery storage across a range of tariff structures, focusing on the rate structures most commonly available to residential customers today and related variants. Deferrals are evaluated with a least-cost distribution grid expansion optimization model to identify requirements on line reconductoring, transformer upgrades, and voltage regulator installations under each tariff. Results show that TOU rates and net billing tariffs can yield meaningful deferral value, depending on specific tariff structure features. Under the best performing tariff structure tested, storage produced a median annualized deferral value of $7.18 per kW of storage capacity ( kW S ) across all feeders in the sample, though deferral values were considerably larger for feeders with peak loads that coincide with utility system peak, i.e., timing of TOU peak period. In contrast, under an unrestricted TOU design with no restrictions on grid charging or discharging, the median deferral value was $0/ kW S illustrating the critical importance of tariff structure details.

Rodriguez-Garcia, Luis↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bimodality in simulated precipitation frequency distributions and its relationship with convective parameterizations

Abstract Bimodality in precipitation frequency distributions is often evident in atmospheric models, but rarely in observations. This study i) proposes a metric to objectively quantify the bimodality in precipitation distributions, ii) evaluates model simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5), phase 6 (CMIP6), and the DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) project by comparing them to satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation products, and iii) investigates possible origins of bimodal precipitation distributions. Our results reveal that about 83% (20 out of 24) of CMIP5 and 70% (21 out of 30) of CMIP6 models used in this study exhibit bimodal distributions. The few DYAMOND models that use a deep convective parameterization also show bimodal distributions, while most DYAMOND models do not. Predictably, the bimodality originates from the separation of precipitation process between resolved grid-scale and parameterized subgrid-scale. However, in a larger number of models bimodality arises from the parameterized subgrid-scale convective precipitation alone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Algorithm to extract direction in 2D discrete distributions and a continuous Frobenius norm

In this study, we present a novel algorithm for determining directionality in 2D distributions of discrete data. We compare a reference dataset with a known direction to a measured dataset with an unknown direction by the Frobenius norm of the difference (FND) to find the unknown direction. To generalize this concept, we develop a continuous Frobenius norm of the difference (CFND) as a continuous analog of the FND and derive its analytical expression. By relating fitted and normalized 2D Gaussian distributions, we show that the CFND approximates the FND, and we validate this relationship with computer simulations. We find that a first-order approximation of the CFND between two similar Gaussian distributions takes the form of an absolute sine function, offering a simple analytical form with potential applications in specialized areas such as segmented inverse beta decay neutrino detectors, astronomy, machine learning, and more. Our methodology consists of modeling a 2D Gaussian distribution, binning the data into a histogram, and encoding it as a square matrix. Rotating this matrix around its geometric center and comparing it to a measured dataset using the FND gives us rotational data that we fit with an absolute sine function. The location of the minimum of this fit is the angle closest to the true angle of the direction in the measured dataset. We present the derivation and discuss initial applications of the CFND in our novel algorithm, demonstrating its success in approximating directionality in 2D distributions.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of super-Gaussian electron distributions on plasma K-shell emission

Electron distributions in laser-produced plasmas will be driven toward a super-Gaussian distribution due to inverse bremsstrahlung absorption [Langdon, Phys. Rev. Lett. 44, 575 (1980)]. Both theoretical and experimental evidence suggest that fundamental plasma properties are altered by the super-Gaussian distribution. Here, this paper examines how the super-Gaussian distribution affects the ionization balance and K-shell emission of atomic plasmas, utilizing approximate formulas and detailed collisional-radiative simulations. While the impact on plasma ionization is small, K-shell spectra can be significantly modified. Based on these findings, we demonstrate that K-shell spectroscopy can be used to infer super-Gaussian or other similar nonequilibrium electron distributions.

Atomic spectra↗

DOE OSTI2025

Elastic dijet production in electron scattering on a longitudinally polarized proton at small x : A portal to orbital angular momentum distributions

We calculate the elastic production of dijets from electron collisions with a longitudinally polarized proton target at small values of the Bjorken x variable. Building on the pioneering proposals of Hatta [Gluon orbital angular momentum at small- x , .] and Bhattacharya [Signature of the gluon orbital angular momentum, ., Probing the quark orbital angular momentum at electron-ion colliders using exclusive π 0 production, ., and Exploring orbital angular momentum and spin-orbit correlation for gluons at the Electron-Ion Collider, .] for measuring the quark and gluon orbital angular momentum (OAM) distributions, our focus is on both the longitudinal double spin asymmetry (DSA) and longitudinal single spin asymmetry (SSA). We compute the numerators of these asymmetries in the small- x formalism of the light-cone operator treatment. Utilizing the small- x expressions for the OAM distributions derived earlier in Kovchegov and Manley [Orbital angular momentum at small x revisited, .], we demonstrate that the DSA provides a robust probe for both the quark and gluon OAM distributions within the proton. In contrast, we find that while the SSA is also sensitive to the OAM distributions, extraction of the latter from the SSA would require new developments in small- x theory and phenomenology, and is probably not feasible at this point in time. These findings highlight the potential of DSA measurements in elastic dijet production at the future Electron-Ion Collider to provide the first-ever direct access to the quark and gluon OAM distributions at small x , paving the way for new insights into the proton spin puzzle. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Kovchegov, Yuri V. (ORCID:0000000169909173)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Conditional diffusion machine-learning framework for mapping valence electron distribution from convergent beam electron diffraction

Quantitative convergent beam electron diffraction (CBED) enables determination of aspherical valence electron distributions through refinement of low-order structure factors, which are highly sensitive to chemical bonding and charge density variations. However, conventional quantitative CBED (QCBED) requires solving a highly nonlinear inverse problem with many coupled parameters, and computationally intensive dynamical diffraction calculations, making it time-consuming and difficult to apply to complex systems. More broadly, reconstructing charge density and orbital electron distribution from diffraction data has long been a central challenge in both x-ray and electron crystallography. Here, in this study, we introduce an artificial-intelligence (AI)-based framework that replaces traditional refinement with a data-driven inverse solver. Using a large synthetic CBED dataset generated by Bloch-wave simulations, we train a conditional diffusion model to directly infer crystal structural parameters and multipole density formalism parameters, and hence valence electron distributions, from CBED patterns alone. By learning from forward simulations across realistic parameter space, the model effectively solves the inverse problem. Compared with direct regression approaches, the diffusion-based framework provides posterior parameter distributions for rigorous uncertainty quantification while preserving quantitative fidelity and reducing analysis time by orders of magnitude. By eliminating the need for external single-crystal x-ray diffraction data and complex nonlinear refinement, this approach enables practical, high-throughput, and in situ quantitative CBED, enabling real-time mapping of valence electron distributions and their correlation with functional responses in quantum and energy materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

Netload Range Cost Curves for Coordinated Transmission-Distribution Planning Under DER Growth Uncertainty

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) requires better coordination between transmission and distribution (T&D) planning to ensure system security and cost efficiency. However, misaligned planning horizons, computational burdens, and privacy concerns hinder effective coordination, leading to either underutilized resources caused by overinvestments or reliability risks due to underinvestment. To address this challenge, we introduce netload range cost curves (NRCCs), a novel approach for managing long-term DER growth uncertainty through T&D coordination, while preserving existing data-sharing and regulatory structures. NRCCs provide pairs of (i) peak substation netload guarantees and (ii) corresponding distribution upgrade options and costs, enabling their seamless integration into transmission planning workflows. To compute NRCCs efficiently, we develop a transmission-aware distribution network planning (TADNP), which is subsequently integrated to an iterative computation procedure. These NRCCs are then embedded into an NRCC-informed transmission planning model to enable resource-efficient coordination. We illustrate our proposed approach with a case study based on realistic distribution and transmission systems in the San Francisco Bay Area, California. Our results indicate the possibility of dramatic savings in transmission investments by incorporating the proposed NRCC-integrated T&D coordination framework.

Li, Yujia↗

DOE OSTI2026

Secure Wireless Communication Using Distributed Coherent Transmission and Spatial Signal Decomposition

We present a new approach to secure wireless communications using coherent distributed transmission of signals that are spatially decomposed between a two-element distributed antenna array. High-accuracy distributed coordination of microwave wireless systems supports the ability to transmit different parts of a signal from separate transmitters such that they combine coherently at a designated destination. In this article, we explore this concept using a two-element coherent distributed phased array where each of the two transmitters sends a separate component of a communication signal, where each symbol is decomposed into a sum of two pseudorandom signal vectors, the coherent summation of which yields the intended symbol. By directing the transmission to an intended receiver using distributed beamforming, the summation of the two vector components is largely confined to a spatial region at the destination receiver. We implement the technique in a $50−λ$ array operating at 3 GHz. We evaluate the symbol error rate (SER) in 2-D space through simulation and measurement, showing that the approach yields a spatially confined secure region where the information is recoverable (i.e., the received signal has low SER), and outside of which the information is unrecoverable (high SER). The proposed system is also compared against a traditional beamforming system where each node sends the same data. We validate experimentally that our approach achieves a low SER of 0.0082 at broadside and an SER above 0.25 at all other locations compared to a traditional beamforming approach that achieves a SER of 0 at all locations measured.

Engineering - Electronic and electrical engineerin↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distributed Augmentation, Hypersweeps, and Branch Decomposition of Contour Trees for Scientific Exploration

Contour trees describe the topology of level sets in scalar fields and are widely used in topological data analysis and visualization. A main challenge of utilizing contour trees for large-scale scientific data is their computation at scale using highperformance computing. To address this challenge, recent work has introduced distributed hierarchical contour trees for distributed computation and storage of contour trees. However, effective use of these distributed structures in analysis and visualization requires subsequent computation of geometric properties and branch decomposition to support contour extraction and exploration. In this work, we introduce distributed algorithms for augmentation, hypersweeps, and branch decomposition that enable parallel computation of geometric properties, and support the use of distributed contour trees as query structures for scientific exploration. Finally, we evaluate the parallel performance of these algorithms and apply them to identify and extract important contours for scientific visualization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Managed Tokens Service for Securely Keeping and Distributing Grid Tokens

Fermilab is transitioning authentication and authorization for grid operations to using bearer tokens based on the WLCG Common JWT (JSON Web Token) Profile. One of the functionalities that Fermilab experimenters rely on is the ability to automate batch job submission, which in turn depends on the ability to securely refresh and distribute the necessary credentials to experiment job submit points. Thus, with the transition to using tokens for grid operations, we needed to create a service that would obtain, refresh, and distribute tokens for experimenters’ use. This service would avoid the need for experimenters to be experts in obtaining their own tokens and would better protect the most sensitive long-lived credentials. Further, the service needed to be widely scalable, as we are currently keeping credentials active for approximately 15 experiments, each with 1-3 different credentials, and distributing those credentials to 2-20 submit points per experiment, with those numbers steadily increasing. To address these issues, we created and deployed a Managed Tokens service. The service is written in Go, taking advantage of that language’s native concurrency primitives to easily be able to scale operations as we onboard experiments. The service uses as its first credentials a set of kerberos keytabs, stored on the same secure machine that the Managed Tokens service runs on. These kerberos credentials allow the service to use htgettoken via condor_vault_storer to store vault tokens in the HTCondor credential managers (credds) that run on the batch system scheduler machines (HTCondor schedds); as well as downloading a local, shorter-lived copy of the vault token. The kerberos credentials are then also used to distribute copies of the locally-stored vault tokens to experiment submit points. When experimenters schedule jobs to be submitted, these distributed vault tokens are used to access a Hashicorp Vault instance (run separately from the Managed Tokens service), and previously-stored refresh tokens there are used to obtain the bearer token that is submitted with the job. We will discuss here the design of the Managed Tokens service, including elaborating on certain choices we made with regards to concurrent operations, configuration, monitoring, and deployment.

Bhat, Shreyas↗

DOE OSTI2026

Experimental Report: Multi-Instrument Comparison of AAF Size Distribution Instruments

Aerosols are particles suspended in the atmosphere, ranging in size from nanometers to micrometers. Their size distribution affects key atmospheric processes, including nucleation, coagulation, scavenging, activation, and radiative properties (Seinfeld and Pandis 2016). Aerosol size distribution is a critical parameter in atmospheric science, influencing processes such as cloud formation and radiative forcing. Accurate representation of aerosol size distributions is essential for understanding their impact on climate, air quality, and human health. However, aerosol size and composition vary significantly across time and space due to meteorological conditions and natural or anthropogenic sources. (Wu and Boor 2021). Various instruments are used to measure aerosol size distributions, each with distinct principles, advantages, and limitations. This report begins with an in-depth overview of aerosol size-distribution comparison studies, focusing on the passive cavity aerosol spectrometer probe (PCASP), portable optical particle spectrometer (POPS), ultra-high-sensitivity aerosol spectrometer (UHSAS), aerodynamic particle sizer (APS), and scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS). All of these instruments are used by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerial Facility (AAF), which commissioned this comparison and report. The report evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of these instruments, highlights their applications, and discusses efforts to merge data from multiple instruments for comprehensive analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Least-cost Optimal Distribution Grid Expansion (LODGE): Utility Pilots

The Least-cost Optimal Distribution Grid Expansion (LODGE) model provides the optimal portfolio of distribution system upgrades—e.g., voltage regulators, feeder reconductoring, transformer upgrades and non-wires alternatives (NWA), such as strategic siting of storage and distributed generation—to interconnect distributed energy resources (DERs) and enable load growth. It can be used to assess grid infrastructure costs and explore policy and regulatory solutions for distribution planning and DER valuation.In 2025, Berkeley Lab conducted three pilot analyses to validate LODGE results with empirical utility data before the model’s first release in 2026. The pilots, done with utilities in Washington, Colorado, and New Mexico, provide examples that illustrate how the model works, what it can do, and the value of the analysis.

Heleno, Miguel↗

DOE OSTI2026

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Speed Distributions

Dark matter direct detection experiments require information about the local dark matter speed distribution to produce constraints on dark matter candidates, or infer their properties in the event of a discovery. In this paper, we analyze how the uncertainty in the dark matter speed distribution near the Sun is affected by baryonic feedback, halo-to-halo variance, and halo mass. To do so, we harness the statistical power of the new DREAMS cold dark matter simulation suite, which is comprised of 1024 zoom-in Milky Way–mass halos with varied initial conditions as well as cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Applying a normalizing flows emulator to these simulations, we find that the uncertainty in the local dark matter speed distribution is dominated by halo-to-halo variance and, to a lesser extent, uncertainty in host halo mass. Uncertainties in supernova and black hole feedback (from the IllustrisTNG model in this case) are negligible in comparison. Using the DREAMS suite, we present a state-of-the-art prediction for the dark matter speed distribution in the Milky Way. Although the standard halo model is contained within the uncertainty of this prediction, individual galaxies may have distributions that differ from it. Lastly, we apply our DREAMS results to the XENON1T experiment and demonstrate that the astrophysical uncertainties are comparable to the experimental ones, solidifying previous results in the literature obtained with a smaller sample of simulated Milky Way–mass halos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Algorithm to extract direction in 2D discrete distributions and a continuous Frobenius norm

In this study, we present a novel algorithm for determining directionality in 2D distributions of discrete data. We compare a reference dataset with a known direction to a measured dataset with an unknown direction by the Frobenius norm of the difference (FND) to find the unknown direction. To generalize this concept, we develop a continuous Frobenius norm of the difference (CFND) as a continuous analog of the FND and derive its analytical expression. By relating fitted and normalized 2D Gaussian distributions, we show that the CFND approximates the FND, and we validate this relationship with computer simulations. We find that a first-order approximation of the CFND between two similar Gaussian distributions takes the form of an absolute sine function, offering a simple analytical form with potential for specialized applications in segmented inverse beta decay (IBD) neutrino detectors, astronomy, machine learning, and more. Although this method may easily extend to 3D scalar fields, our focus here is on 2D real-valued fields as it directly applies to directionality. Our methodology consists of modeling a 2D Gaussian distribution, binning the data into a histogram, and encoding it as a square matrix. Rotating this matrix around its geometric center and comparing it to a measured dataset using the FND gives us rotational data that we fit with an absolute sine function. The location of the minimum of this fit is the angle closest to the true angle of the direction in the measured dataset. We present the derivation and discuss initial applications of the CFND in our novel algorithm, demonstrating its success in approximating directionality in 2D distributions.

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Time Distribution Analysis for Task Primitives to Support Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

To support data collection for dynamic human reliability analysis (HRA), this study investigates time distributions for task primitives defined in the Goals, Operators, Methods, and Selection rules (GOMS)–Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) method and Human Reliability data EXtraction (HuREX). GOMS-HRA was developed to provide cognition-based time and human error probability (HEP) information for dynamic HRA calculations within the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) framework, while HuREX is a comprehensive HRA data collection method developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). In this paper, we examine time distributions by using experimental data collected from the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP) study, which proposes an HRA data collection framework to complement full-scope simulator research and gather input data for dynamic HRA by using simplified simulators such as the Rancor Microworld simulator. This paper investigates whether the time required for GOMS-HRA and HuREX task primitives fits 13 statistical distributions. Additionally, we compare and discuss the time distributions obtained from both student operators and professional operators. The result was that this study identified several time distributions for five GOMS-HRA and four HuREX task primitives. In the future, the results of this study are expected to provide objective reference data on the elapsed time for task primitives and aid in realistically simulating scenarios within dynamic HRA.

Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-agent voltage control in distribution systems using GAN-DRL-based approach

Active distribution grids can experience voltage fluctuations and violations due to the high penetration of variable distributed energy resources (DERs). These problems might occur because of the uncertain and variable generation natures of these resources, especially solar photovoltaic resources, during panel shadowing scenarios. Volt-VAR control (VVC) is an efficient method that controls the reactive power set-points of the inverters to regulate the voltage of distribution grids. Although several VVC approaches have been proposed recently, the performance of these approaches degrades significantly if behind-the-meter solar generation data are unobservable/missing. Therefore, it is necessary to impute missing/unobservable PV data accurately to be utilized in VVC approaches. Further, this paper proposes a model-free, data-driven, centrally trained, and decentrally executed multi-agent deep reinforcement learning-based VVC architecture to regulate the voltage of distribution networks. A generative adversarial network (GAN) is incorporated to impute the unobservable PV data accurately, which improves the performance of the proposed control architecture. The proposed multi-agent-soft-actor–critic algorithm (MASAC)-based VVC technique utilizes the actual PV dataset as well as the imputed dataset from the GAN framework to learn the optimal coordinated control policy for controlling the optimal reactive power set-points of PV inverters. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is analyzed on a modified IEEE 34-bus test case with added PV inverters. The results are compared and analyzed with a base case model with no VVC and VVC with a local droop control approach, genetic algorithm optimization, and a centralized soft actor–critic-based approach. Moreover, the performance of the proposed approach is compared with that of a multi-agent VVC framework without using the PV generation data and load information as the system state. The results illustrate that the proposed method with more state input improves the voltage profile and reduces the power loss of the network across various loading and PV generation scenarios.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗