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DOE OSTI2025

ASEAN Technical Exchange Workshop for System Operators, Regulators, and Policymakers

This presentation provides an in-depth exploration of power system planning, cross-border electricity trading, and battery energy storage systems (BESS), offering actionable insights for system operators, regulators, and policymakers. The first section delves into power system planning and analysis, focusing on capacity expansion models and resource adequacy studies, including their role in optimizing system efficiency, managing emissions, and addressing system reliability risks. Key considerations, such as integration of transmission into generation planning and the forecasting versus optimization of customer distributed energy resources (DER) technologies, are explored. The session highlights critical trade-offs in spatial granularity and model runtimes, as well as the feasibility of aligning distribution investments with capacity expansion efforts. The second section examines cross-border electricity trading, with an emphasis on resource adequacy concepts such as reliability targets, loss of load expectation (LOLE), and planning reserve margins (PRM). Case studies on reserve market design and coordination across US regions provide insights into improving reserve deliverability and managing interregional power balance and congestion. This section also addresses market-to-market congestion management, including advanced strategies for high-voltage direct current (HVDC) optimization and ancillary service delivery. Finally, the presentation covers the rapid evolution of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), highlighting their operational growth, regulatory frameworks, and use cases in grid flexibility, energy storage, and reliability. The discussion focuses on the benefits of BESS for system stability, resilience, and integration of renewable energy, offering insights into its role as a vital component in the transition toward a more sustainable and flexible grid. Key performance parameters, such as throughput, round-trip efficiency, and state of charge, are also examined.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantum Reinforcement Learning for Volt-VAR Control in Power Distribution Systems

Volt-VAR control (VVC) is crucial in active distribution networks for optimizing voltage profiles and minimizing network losses. While traditional deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms exhibit promise for VVC, they often require extensive computational resources to handle such a high-dimensional problem. As a potential solution, quantum reinforcement learning (QRL) algorithms integrate the computational capabilities of quantum computing into the DRL framework. However, existing QRL algorithms struggle with complex VVC problems due to the limitations of current quantum hardware. To bridge this gap, this paper proposes an innovative QRL algorithm featuring an end-to-end architecture that integrates a classical autoencoder, variational quantum circuits (VQCs), and classical post-processing layers. This design efficiently compresses high-dimensional grid states, enabling VQCs to leverage quantum advantages while producing multiple control device outputs tailored for VVC tasks. Numerical studies on three representative distribution systems verify the effectiveness and scalability of the proposed QRL algorithm, and demonstrate its enhanced performance over classical approaches with only approximately 1% of the parameters. Additionally, the robustness of our developed algorithm is validated through noisy quantum environments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

CeO2 Nanoparticle Doping as a Probe of Active Site Speciation in the Catalytic Hydrolysis of Organophosphates

Organophosphate hydrolysis is important for degrading environmentally harmful compounds and recovering phosphate ions in biological molecules. CeO2 nanocrystals have been well-studied for dephosphorylation via hydrolysis owing to the accessible and tunable distribution of Ce3+ and Ce4+ ions. However, there remains uncertainty in the literature regarding which surface defect properties direct catalytic activity, such as the Ce3+/Ce4+ distribution, oxygen vacancies, faceting, and dopants, and to what degree they contribute to efficient hydrolysis. Trivalent (M3+) dopants serve as a tool for manipulating defects, including the concentration of Ce3+ and oxygen vacancies, thereby influencing the hydrolytic activity of CeO2. Herein, trivalent metal ions (M = Y3+, Cr3+, In3+, and Gd3+) were employed to modulate the active sites on the CeO2 nanocrystal surface, and the effects of each metal dopant on the cerium oxide active sites for organophosphate hydrolysis were investigated. M-doped CeO2 nanoparticles were synthesized via hydrothermal methods, followed by annealing to remove ligands and prime the nanocrystal surface for catalysis. Catalytic performance was evaluated using dimethyl-p¬-nitrophenyl phosphate (DMNP) as a model organophosphate substrate, with degradation monitored over time using UV-visible absorption spectroscopy. Powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and Raman spectroscopy revealed successful doping of CeO2 in all cases, albeit with distinctive characteristics demonstrating how M3+ dopants affect catalysis. We show that CeO2 exhibits high sensitivity to dopants that generate lattice strain, Ce3+ ions, and oxygen vacancy defects. Consequently, achieving high catalytic efficiency within CeO2 requires a balanced active site ensemble, wherein defects are maintained at optimal concentrations and distributions on the nanocrystal surface.

Miura-Stempel, Emily L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Halogenated Dibenzo[ f , h ]quinoxaline Units Constructed 2D‐Conjugated Guest Acceptors for 19% Efficiency Organic Solar Cells

Abstract Halogenation of Y‐series small‐molecule acceptors (Y‐SMAs) is identified as an effective strategy to optimize photoelectric properties for achieving improved power‐conversion‐efficiencies (PCEs) in binary organic solar cells (OSCs). However, the effect of different halogenation in the 2D‐structured large π‐fused core of guest Y‐SMAs on ternary OSCs has not yet been systematically studied. Herein, four 2D‐conjugated Y‐SMAs (X‐QTP‐4F, including halogen‐free H‐QTP‐4F, chlorinated Cl‐QTP‐4F, brominated Br‐QTP‐4F, and iodinated I‐QTP‐4F) by attaching different halogens into 2D‐conjugation extended dibenzo[ f , h ]quinoxaline core are developed. Among these X‐QTP‐4F, Cl‐QTP‐4F has a higher absorption coefficient, optimized molecular crystallinity and packing, suitable cascade energy levels, and complementary absorption with PM6:L8‐BO host. Moreover, among ternary PM6:L8‐BO:X‐QTP‐4F blends, PM6:L8‐BO:Cl‐QTP‐4F obtains a more uniform and size‐suitable fibrillary network morphology, improved molecular crystallinity and packing, as well as optimized vertical phase distribution, thus boosting charge generation, transport, extraction, and suppressing energy loss of OSCs. Consequently, the PM6:L8‐BO:Cl‐QTP‐4F‐based OSCs achieve a 19.0% efficiency, which is among the state‐of‐the‐art OSCs based on 2D‐conjugated Y‐SMAs and superior to these devices based on PM6:L8‐BO host (17.70%) and with guests of H‐QTP‐4F (18.23%), Br‐QTP‐4F (18.39%), and I‐QTP‐4F (17.62%). The work indicates that halogenation in 2D‐structured dibenzo[ f , h ]quinoxaline core of Y‐SMAs guests is a promising strategy to gain efficient ternary OSCs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Estimating the impact of tariff-driven behind-the-meter storage operation on distribution grid investments

Increasing growth of distributed solar photovoltaics (PV) and electric vehicles (EV) can strain local distribution networks and require costly upgrades. Distributed battery storage, often deployed alongside PV, can be used to mitigate those costs, depending on how batteries are operated. This study evaluates the potential deferral value of distributed battery storage across a range of tariff structures, focusing on the rate structures most commonly available to residential customers today and related variants. Deferrals are evaluated with a least-cost distribution grid expansion optimization model to identify requirements on line reconductoring, transformer upgrades, and voltage regulator installations under each tariff. Results show that TOU rates and net billing tariffs can yield meaningful deferral value, depending on specific tariff structure features. Under the best performing tariff structure tested, storage produced a median annualized deferral value of $7.18 per kW of storage capacity ( kW S ) across all feeders in the sample, though deferral values were considerably larger for feeders with peak loads that coincide with utility system peak, i.e., timing of TOU peak period. In contrast, under an unrestricted TOU design with no restrictions on grid charging or discharging, the median deferral value was $0/ kW S illustrating the critical importance of tariff structure details.

Rodriguez-Garcia, Luis↗

DOE OSTI2025

Initial position optimization in molecular dynamics simulations for a Coulomb system

A new algorithm for molecular dynamics (MD) simulations is developed to optimize plasma particle distributions at given initial temperatures. By combining velocity scaling and reassignment, the method effectively eliminates the initial rise and oscillation in temperatures observed with randomly distributed positions. These rises and oscillations are undesired numerical artifacts observed in conventional plasma MD simulations, arising from unoptimized particle positions. The algorithm demonstrates temperature relaxation without initial rises or oscillations, as well as precise flow velocity relaxation, enabling accurate measurement of relaxation times. The code is accelerated using graphics processing units for parallel processing, enhancing the study of plasma dynamics. The proposed method for distributing physically valid particles in MD simulations enables accurate studies of intrinsic collision processes in plasmas, including the dynamics of strongly coupled plasmas, plasma–wave interactions, and transport phenomena in magnetized plasmas. The paper concludes with a discussion of potential applications and future enhancements to the algorithm.

Jo, Jawon (ORCID:0009000924193285)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spatial inequities in access to medications for treatment of opioid use disorder highlight scarcity of methadone providers under counterfactual scenarios

Access to treatment and medication for opioid use disorder (MOUD) is essential in reducing opioid use and associated behavioral risks, such as syringe sharing among persons who inject drugs (PWID). Syringe sharing among PWID carries high risk of transmission of serious infections such as hepatitis C and HIV. MOUD resources, such as methadone provider clinics, however, are often unavailable to PWID due to barriers like long travel distance to the nearest methadone provider and the required frequency of clinic visits. The goal of this study is to examine the uncertainty in the effects of travel distance in initiating and continuing methadone treatment and how these interact with different spatial distributions of methadone providers to impact co-injection (syringe sharing) risks. A baseline scenario of spatial access was established using the existing locations of methadone providers in a geographical area of metropolitan Chicago, Illinois, USA. Next, different counterfactual scenarios redistributed the locations of methadone providers in this geographic area according to the densities of both the general adult population and according to the PWID population per zip code. We define different reasonable methadone access assumptions as the combinations of short, medium, and long travel distance preferences combined with three urban/suburban travel distance preference. Our modeling results show that when there is a low travel distance preference for accessing methadone providers, distributing providers near areas that have the greatest need (defined by density of PWID) is best at reducing syringe sharing behaviors. However, this strategy also decreases access across suburban locales, posing even greater difficulty in regions with fewer transit options and providers. As such, without an adequate number of providers to give equitable coverage across the region, spatial distribution cannot be optimized to provide equitable access to all PWID. Our study has important implications for increasing interest in methadone as a resurgent treatment for MOUD in the United States and for guiding policy toward improving access to MOUD among PWID.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient Anomaly Detection Driven By Different Machine Learning Architectures And Models

The rapid growth and ubiquitous adoption of the internet and cyber-physical systems (CPS) have fundamentally transformed modern communication, work, and human-system interactions. While networks now form the backbone of critical digital ecosystems, enabling seamless data transmission across diverse, interconnected systems, this increased connectivity also expands the attack surface, making real-time detection of network intrusions and anomalies a pressing challenge. Detecting unusual activities within network infrastructure requires advanced data traffic analysis to differentiate between legitimate and malicious interactions. Traditional approaches to network anomaly detectionâ??such as rule-based and signature-based systemsâ??often depend on predefined patterns to identify known anomalies, limiting their effectiveness against emerging, stealthy, or previously unseen threats. These conventional methods suffer from high false alarm rates and fail to adapt to the ever-evolving nature of network traffic, particularly in large-scale, decentralized environments where data volume, velocity, and variety are constantly increasing. This dissertation presents artificial intelligence (AI)-driven approaches to anomaly detection that leverage graphics processing unit (GPU)-enabled high-performance computing (HPC) platforms for processing massive network traffic data and monitoring the components of cyber-physical systems (CPS) for potentially hazardous conditions. The research advances several key contributions: (1) Designing efficient machine learning techniques for CPS condition monitoring and anomaly detection; (2) enabling federated learning (FL) frameworks that enable distributed detection while preserving data privacy and system resilience; (3) exploring graph-based methodologies combining graph neural networks (GNN) and graph machine learning (ML) approaches for the Internet of Things (IoT) and automotive network security, and (4) performing distributed edge computing optimizations that integrate FL with scalable technologies for reduced communication overhead. Through extensive experiments, these methodologies demonstrate that complex anomaly detection and condition monitoring tasks can be achieved while balancing computational efficiency and detection accuracy through fine-grained network information processing. The frameworks developed in this research establish a robust foundation for network anomaly detection, providing scalable, adaptive, and privacy-preserving solutions for safeguarding CPS and IoT networks in an increasingly interconnected digital landscape. The practical implications of these research findings are significant, as they can inform the development of next-generation network security systems and contribute to the protection of critical infrastructure against sophisticated cyber attacks.

Marfo, William↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measurement-informed Dynamic Aggregation of Distribution Systems

This paper proposes a measurement-informed dynamic aggregation methodology in order to create equivalent representations of distribution systems that are compatible with large-scale transmission analysis. By optimizing an equivalent feeder parameters using time-series measurements of active power, reactive power, and voltage at the Point of Interconnection (POI), the approach yields simplified yet dynamically accurate equivalents. Implemented in PSCAD with models of photovoltaic–battery systems, three-phase motors, and static loads, the method employs hybrid differential evolution and bounded least-squares optimization laying the foundation for for real-time state estimation and optimized sensor placement in distribution networks.

Ahmed, Kazi Ishrak [University of Tennessee, Knoxv↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ocelot: An Interactive, Efficient Distributed Compression-As-a-Service Platform With Optimized Data Compression Techniques

Large volumes of data generated by scientific simulations, genome sequencing, and other applications need to be moved among clusters for data collection/analysis. Data compression techniques have effectively reduced data storage and transfer costs. However, users' requirements on interactively controlling both data quality and compression ratios are non-trivial to fulfill. Here, we propose a novel Compression-as-a-Service (CaaS) platform called Ocelot with four important contributions: (1) It offers real-time visualization, interactive compression, and transfer of scientific datasets. (2) It incorporates new strategies for compressing diverse types of datasets more effectively than traditional methods. (3) It provides an effective method for estimating the compression ratio and execution time of compression tasks. (4) Experiments on multiple real-world datasets on geographically distributed computers show that Ocelot can significantly improve data transfer efficiency with a performance gain of more than 10x in computing clusters with relatively slow networks.

compression as a service (CaaS)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Design and optimization of a modular hydrogen-based integrated energy system to maximize revenue via nuclear-renewable sources

Here, this paper demonstrates a novel modular distributed framework that uses optimal energy-dispatching strategies to enable greater flexibility and profitability in nuclear-renewable integrated energy systems (NR-IES). Hydrogen is used as a commodity in this framework since its production can improve grid stability and system operational flexibility, decarbonize heavy industry, and create an additional revenue stream for electricity generators, particularly nuclear power plants with high operational expenses. The proposed solution addresses the challenges associated with merging multiple software and services from various domains by using functional mock-up units (FMU) to co-simulate diverse subsystems designed in various platforms. The tightly coupled integrated energy system (IES) is optimized to maximize revenue by utilizing the deep reinforcement learning (DRL) technique to make smart dispatching decisions based on variable electricity prices and the availability of renewable energy. Proximal policy optimization (PPO) algorithm is used in training and testing the DRL agent. Over a period of 120 days, the proposed hydrogen-based IES framework showed about 10% revenue boost compared to a non-hydrogen generating baseline IES while also providing an easily-adoptable framework which can help to improve the flexibility of future generation nuclear power plants.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Holistic energy analysis method for thermal management architectures of data centers

Modern high-performance computing (HPC) data centers (DCs), particularly those supporting energy-intensive artificial intelligence (AI) workloads, face escalating thermal management challenges that degrade performance through thermal throttling and drive up cooling power consumption and operational costs. To address this challenge, many have developed a wide variety of thermal management solutions (single-phase, two-phase, direct, indirect, hybrid, and more) which attempt to cool HPC DCs effectively while attempting to minimize overall system power consumption. However, the analysis of these solutions and methods to effectively compare one with another is lacking. Overall power usage effectiveness (PUE) and total-power usage effectiveness (TUE) provide a metric to quantify power consumption but fail to identify components in the system which require further optimization. To address this, we propose a holistic analytical framework – the waterfall diagram (WFD) – which leverages a waterfall chart methodology, offering a comprehensive visualization of both the thermal management system loop and heat flow pathways from individual server components to the outdoor ambient. Use of the WFD enables graphical estimations of power efficiency and cooling performance across each component of a DC cooling system and complements Sankey-style energy flow visualizations by additionally resolving stage-wise temperature changes and incremental TUE contributions. The framework is used in conjunction with simulation-based approaches, to conduct a detailed pressure drop and flow distribution analysis aimed at identifying the optimal coolant distribution architecture for a single-phase direct-to-chip water-cooled DC, which serves as the baseline for subsequent WFD analysis. Among the evaluated architectures, the 3 U modular coolant distribution architecture is found to demonstrate the best performance, considering minimal pressure drop and uniform flow distribution. In addition, TUE is calculated for each cooling loop component based on its associated pressure drop and corresponding pumping power, which are integrated into the WFD. This correlation between TUE and local temperature offers immediate insight into the power efficiency and thermal performance contributions of individual components, facilitating further development and optimization. Examples of WFD applications are presented under varying thermal loads and ambient conditions, demonstrating reasonable cooling strategies. Notably, the 3 U modular architecture maintains a consistent chip case temperature of 85°C, achieving a TUE of 1.016 at ambient temperature of 47°C, and a TUE of 1.026 at ambient temperature of 52°C. The WFD methodology provides an efficient, holistic, and streamlined framework for DC thermal management architecture assessment and enables design optimization which is important for addressing the thermal-fluidic energy challenges of current and next-generation DCs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Grid Modernization of Cooperatives and Municipal Utilities via Breakthrough System Monitoring, Control and Optimization (CRADA Final Report)

This project aims at developing and demonstrating successful implementation of breakthrough approaches in real-time data visualization as well as real-time distributed DER control and optimization to provide ample benefits to both utilities and end users. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Holy Cross Energy (HCE), National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA) and Survalent are collaborating to enable Cooperative and Municipal utilities to fully leverage DERs as part of their strategies for providing safe, reliable, and affordable electric services to their customers and help meet DOE Grid modernization goal of achieving at least 10% active devices to provide grid flexibility by 2035. This project will use novel real-time control algorithms and approaches for distributed control recently developed under DOE-funded projects, using the date from the Survalent’s basic SCADA engine, GIS and AMI engines deployed at HCE combined with NRECA’s globally-used MultiSpeak(R) software interoperability specification for seamless and real-time communications between electric utility enterprise software to embrace DER as part of their strategies for providing safe, reliable and affordable electric service to their customers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Extremized nonlinear and linearized responses in soft metamaterials enabled by gradient-based design and grayscale digital light processing

In this study, we develop a gradient-based design approach that exploits grayscale digital light processing (DLP) 3D printing for extremizing the nonlinear and linearized response of soft metamaterials — materials that harness engineered geometric instabilities to undergo large and programmable changes in configuration. Grayscale DLP approaches modulate local mechanical properties at the pixel scale by tuning the light intensity within a single grayscale image, unlocking an exceptionally large design space. To effectively navigate this space, we develop smooth mappings between local light intensity values and global quantities of interest that characterize the behavior of soft metamaterials. Enabling these smooth mappings are robust and differentiable nonlinear finite element simulations powered by a trust region solver. A PDE-constrained optimization problem is then solved to invert these mappings and produce light intensity distributions that endow the printed part with varying stiffness and flexibility in distinctive regions. It is shown that optimizing the distribution of soft and stiff phases throughout a metamaterial structure results in markedly different buckling and self-contact configurations to drive extremized nonlinear compression and linearized vibration responses. Optimized light intensity distributions are translated to grayscale images and directly used to print soft metamaterial samples, showing remarkable agreement between the buckling and self-contact response in simulated and measured deformed configurations.

Additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2025

Information divergences to parametrize astrophysical uncertainties in dark matter direct detection

Astrophysical uncertainties in dark matter direct detection experiments are typically addressed by parametrizing the velocity distribution in terms of a few uncertain parameters that vary around some central values. Here we propose a method to optimize over all velocity distributions lying within a given distance measure from a central distribution. We discretize the dark matter velocity distribution as a superposition of streams and use a variety of information divergences to parametrize its uncertainties. With this, we bracket the limits on the dark matter–nucleon and dark matter–electron scattering cross sections, when the true dark matter velocity distribution deviates from the commonly assumed Maxwell-Boltzmann form. The methodology pursued is general and could be applied to other physics scenarios where a given physical observable depends on a function that is uncertain.

particle astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Cybersecurity for Distributed Energy Resources (AdCyDER): Online Reinforcement Learning with Stackelberg-Optimized Defenses — Pipeline Architecture, Evaluation Methodology, and Findings from a Synthetic-Data Evaluation

This report documents the design and evaluation of an integrated online-learning pipeline developed within the AdCyDER project for Distributed Energy Resource (DER) cybersecurity. The pipeline couples a Reinforcement Learning (RL) attack classifier — which produces an attack-type probability distribution — with a Stackelberg game-theoretic (GT) defense selector that consumes those distributions alongside SME-encoded priors over (defense, attack) effectiveness pairings and perdefense costs to choose grid-health-preserving defenses. The objective is not attack classification per se but production of distributions that drive effective defense selection through the Stackelberg layer, learned from delayed grid-health feedback rather than labeled attack data. AdCyDER as a whole is broader than the work presented here; this report covers the specific RL/GT loop integration and its evaluation. We present the integrated pipeline (SCADA telemetry with Fronius inverter physics, Suricata IDS, time-windowed aggregation, per-facility LSTM classifier, Stackelberg optimizer, OpenC2 actuators), an experimental campaign of 28 eight-hour iterations across three baseline modes, and a pipeline-ordered diagnostic protocol. The protocol identifies two distinct failure modes within the loop: paired supervised ceilings on the same features establish that the deployed online RL classifier (macro F1 ≈ 0.07) sits at least 4.7× below a same-architecture supervised LSTM (≈ 0.34) and 10–11× below a linear feature-signal ceiling (≈ 0.70–0.79 depending on per-facility isolation), localizing the dominant failure to the training procedure; and the reward signal driving online updates carries weak directional coupling with classifier correctness in the methodology-expected direction (multi-lens convergent: top-decile P(true) records produce more frequent state changes and slightly larger improvements, top-vs-bot Cohen’s 𝑑 ≈ −0.19), but at effect magnitudes too small to drive gradient-based learning at the campaign sample size. The original learning hypothesis is not supported by the data. The primary contributions are the diagnostic methodology — proposed as a transferable falsification protocol for online RL/GT defense pipelines learning from delayed environmental reward — and the open, reproducible experimental infrastructure. We outline reward reformulation as the highest-priority aspirational next step given the underpowered-but-aligned Q6 reading, with hardware-in-the-loop evaluation as the broadest scope-expansion option.

Blakely, Benjamin [Argonne National Laboratory (AN↗

DOE OSTI2026

GRIDAPPSD/distopf (33583-E)

DistOPF is an open-source Python package providing a three-phase, asymmetric optimal power flow (OPF) tool specifically designed for distribution systems. The key inventive features include: - Asymmetrical 3-phase OPF modeling for distribution systems with unbalanced phases - Comprehensive control optimization supporting both active (P) and reactive (Q) power control variables - Built-in visualization and validation tools - Standard test system benchmarking platform for algorithm development and comparison - Modular CSV-based input system using Pandas DataFrames for flexible model specification - Standard power distribution model importer enabling direct conversion from CIM and OpenDSS format to optimization-ready models - Multiple solve interface compatibility (PYOMO, CVXPY, SciPy) with automatic solver selection based on problem type

Gray, Nathan [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis for constrained optimization of nuclear waste vitrification

Abstract The vitrification of high‐level waste (HLW) by heating a mixture of glass‐forming chemicals (GFCs) with the waste can be improved using a constrained optimization problem. This study explores how different uncertainty propagation (UP) methods implemented with the optimization process can affect the glass formulation of nuclear waste glasses. UP is the effort of propagating uncertain inputs through a system to understand and quantify output distributions. Uncertainty intervals are crafted from output distributions to inform the optimization algorithm. UP is often implemented with Monte Carlo (MC) sampling for large nonlinear systems, which can be difficult to implement within a constrained optimization algorithm that requires derivative information. Other UP methods often used for optimization under uncertainty (OUU) can be designed to work within an established constrained optimization framework. Methods of UP are evaluated in this study including iterative sampling approaches, first‐order approximations, and surrogate modeling with machine learning (ML). A method of dimensional reduction based on global sensitivity analysis is introduced to support the UP methods for the large dimensionality of the problem. Analytical UP methods able to achieve similar optimums 10 times faster than the baseline MC approach, and produce 93.9% similar output distributions are reported.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗