Distributed PV generation estimation using multi‐rate and event‐driven Kalman kriging filter
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This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of wind and solar energy generation across the continental United States, focusing on energy availability, reliability, variability, and cooperation. Using data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, we analyze the performance of wind turbines and photovoltaic systems, revealing distinct patterns in energy production and reliability. The classification of wind and solar zones based on energy availability and reliability provides valuable insights for renewable energy planning and grid integration strategies. Overall, this methodology contributes to understanding wind and solar interactions, which will lead to informing effective renewable energy deployment and grid integration efforts.
This is the final CRADA 396 report to the DOE Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office.
Radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument are fundamental variables for understanding the Earth's energy balance and how it changes with time. TOA radiative fluxes are derived from the CERES radiance measurements using empirical angular distribution models (ADMs). This paper evaluates the accuracy of CERES TOA fluxes using direct integration and flux consistency tests. Direct integration tests show that the overall bias in regional monthly mean TOA shortwave (SW) flux is less than 0.2Wm(exp -2) and the RMSE is less than 1.1Wm(exp -2). The bias and RMSE are very similar between Terra and Aqua. The bias in regional monthly mean TOA LW fluxes is less than 0.5Wm(exp -2) and the RMSE is less than 0.8Wm(exp -)2 for both Terra and Aqua. The accuracy of the TOA instantaneous flux is assessed by performing tests using fluxes inverted from nadir- and oblique-viewing angles using CERES along-track observations and temporally and spatially matched MODIS observations, and using fluxes inverted from multi-angle MISR observations. The averaged TOA instantaneous SW flux uncertainties from these two tests are about 2.3% (1.9Wm(exp -2) over clear ocean, 1.6% (4.5Wm(exp -2) over clear land, and 2.0% (6.0Wm(exp -) over clear snow/ice; and are about 3.3% (9.0Wm(exp -2), 2.7% (8.4Wm(exp -2), and 3.7% (9.9Wm(exp -2) over ocean, land, and snow/ice under all-sky conditions. The TOA SW flux uncertainties are generally larger for thin broken clouds than for moderate and thick overcast clouds. The TOA instantaneous daytime LW flux uncertainties derived from the CERESMODIS test are 0.5% (1.5Wm(exp -2), 0.8% (2.4Wm(exp -2), and 0.7% (1.3Wm(exp -2) over clear ocean, land, and snow/ice; and are about 1.5% (3.5Wm(exp -2), 1.0% (2.9Wm(exp -2), and 1.1% (2.1Wm(exp -2) over ocean, land, and snow/ice under all-sky conditions. The TOA instantaneous nighttime LW flux uncertainties are about 0.5-1% (<2.0Wm(exp -2) for all surface types. Flux uncertainties caused by errors in scene identification are also assessed by using the collocated CALIPSO, CloudSat, CERES and MODIS data product. Errors in scene identification tend to underestimate TOA SW flux by about 0.6Wm(exp -2) and overestimate TOA daytime (nighttime) LW flux by 0.4 (0.2)Wm(exp -2) when all CERES viewing angles are considered.
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With the increasing availability of Direct Current (DC) power from on-site solar systems, building designers now have the option of direct distribution of DC power to energy storage systems and end-use loads such as lighting, electronics, and motors. Research shows that direct-DC can reduce building distribution losses by 5-15%, while improving power reliability. A readily available way to implement direct-DC distribution is Power over Ethernet (PoE), which typically has provided low-voltage DC to power office equipment such as WiFi access points. With recent updates to the PoE standard, equipment such as network-controlled LED lighting, thin client and computer workstations, HVAC controllers, fans, motors, and actuators can now be powered by PoE and are commercially available. This paper presents results from a DOE-funded project that is demonstrating PoE technologies and describes a DC modeling and design tool that is intended to help building designers properly evaluate and design DC distribution systems in buildings. The tool provides designers of DC power systems with estimates of both power system losses and indirect effects on building heating and cooling. The results of this research demonstrate that the design methods and products are available to implement DC power in buildings today.
This presentation covers the purpose and scope of an Energy I-Corps project focused on refining a suite of analytical tools designed to support distributed wind deployment. These tools - the Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen), Distributed Wind Tools Assessing Performance (TAP), and the Hybrid Optimization and Performance Platform (HOPP) - combine to provide users with the ability to simulate consumer purchasing behavior, accurately assess wind resource to better predict turbine performance, and effectively design and optimize hybrid systems that include distributed wind.
Traditionally, electrical power was generated in big power plants. The cost of producing energy was related to the cost of fuel, e.g., carbon or gas, and by the cost of maintaining the power plants. With the advent of distributed energy resources, power can be produced directly at the edge of the electrical network by a new type of agents: the prosumers. Prosumers are entities that both consume and generate power, e.g., by means of photovoltaic panels. The cost of the power produced by prosumers is no longer related to fuel consumption since energy coming from distributed generators is essentially free. Rather, the cost is related to the remuneration that is due to the prosumers for the services they provide. The proposed control strategy minimizes the active power generation cost in the aforementioned scenario. The control scheme requires that the prosumers measure their voltage and then adjust the amount of injected power, according to a continuous time feedback control law that is indeed a projected gradient descent strategy. Simulations are provided in order to illustrate the algorithm behavior.
Synthetically generated, large graph networks serve as useful proxies to real-world networks for many graph-based applications. The ability to generate such networks helps overcome several limitations of real-world networks regarding their number, availability, and access. Here, we present the design, implementation, and performance study of a novel network generator that can produce very large graph networks conforming to any desired degree distribution. The generator is designed and implemented for efficient execution on modern graphics processing units (GPUs). Given an array of desired vertex degrees and number of vertices for each desired degree, our algorithm generates the edges of a random graph that satisfies the input degree distribution. Multiple runtime variants are implemented and tested: 1) a uniform static work assignment using a fixed thread launch scheme, 2) a load-balanced static work assignment also with fixed thread launch but with cost-aware task-to-thread mapping, and 3) a dynamic scheme with multiple GPU kernels asynchronously launched from the CPU. The generation is tested on a range of popular networks such as Twitter and Facebook, representing different scales and skews in degree distributions. Results show that, using our algorithm on a single modern GPU (NVIDIA Volta V100), it is possible to generate large-scale graph networks at rates exceeding 50 billion edges per second for a 69 billion-edge network. GPU profiling confirms high utilization and low branching divergence of our implementation from small to large network sizes. For networks with scattered distributions, we provide a coarsening method that further increases the GPU-based generation speed by up to a factor of 4 on tested input networks with over 45 billion edges.
This presentation discusses the fourth report in NREL’s Storage Futures Study (SFS) publications. The SFS is a multiyear research project that explores the role and impact of energy storage in the evolution and operation of the U.S. power sector. The SFS is designed to examine the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. This report describes the expanded capabilities of the Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model to analyze the economics of distributed (behind-the-meter) PV paired with battery storage systems and presents projections of adoption for the contiguous United States out to 2050 under a range of scenarios. These scenarios use technology cost and performance assumptions consistent with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s 2020 Standard Scenarios paired with updated battery cost projections and existing policies. Additional scenarios evaluate sensitivities to the value of backup power and DER compensation mechanisms, collectively characterizing the future potential for behind-the-meter storage and identifying key drivers of adoption. Adoption projections of DER and battery storage at high spatial and temporal resolution, as presented in this report, can enable informed planning of technical infrastructure that can help planners capture the benefits and mitigate challenges to support the ongoing trend toward distributed electricity generation.
This paper summarizes the literature on detection of islanding resulting from distributed generating capabilities in a power distribution system, with emphasis on the rural distribution systems. It is important to understand the legacy technology and equipment in the rural distribution electrical environment due to the growth of power electronics and the potential for adding the new generations of intelligent sensors. The survey identified four areas needing further research: 1. Robustness in the presence of distribution grid disturbances; 2. the future role of artificial intelligence in the islanding application; 3. more realistic standard tests for the emerging electrical environment; 4. smarter sensors. In addition, this paper presents a synchro-phasor-based islanding detection approach based on a wireless sensor network developed by the University of Texas at Austin. Initial test results in a control hardware-in-the-loop (CHIL) simulation environment suggest the effectiveness of the developed method.
In this paper, a fuel-based distributed generator (DG) allocation strategy is proposed to enhance the distribution system resilience against extreme weather. The long-term planning problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer programming (SMIP). The first stage is to make decisions of DG siting and sizing under the given budget constraint. In the second stage, a post-extreme-event-restoration (PEER) is employed to minimize the operating cost in an uncertain fault scenario. In particular, this study proposes a method to select the most representative scenarios for the SMIP. First, a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is introduced to generate sufficient scenarios considering random fault locations and load profiles. Then, the number of scenarios is reduced by the K-means clustering algorithm. The advantage of scenario reduction is to make a trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. Finally, the SMIP is solved by the progressive hedging algorithm. Here, the case studies of the IEEE 33-bus and 123-bus test systems demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in reducing the expected energy not served (EENS), which is a critical criterion of resilience.
Spatial burnout calculations have been made of two types of water moderated cylindrical reactor using boron as a burnable poison to increase reactor life. Specific reactors studied were a version of the Submarine Advanced Reactor (sAR) and a supercritical water reactor (SCW) . Burnout characteristics such as reactivity excursion, neutron-flux and heat-generation distributions, and uranium and boron distributions have been determined for core lives corresponding to a burnup of approximately 7 kilograms of fully enriched uranium. All reactivity calculations have been based on the actual nonuniform distribution of absorbers existing during intervals of core life. Spatial burnout of uranium and boron and spatial build-up of fission products and equilibrium xenon have been- considered. Calculations were performed on the NACA nuclear reactor simulator using two-group diff'usion theory. The following reactor burnout characteristics have been demonstrated: 1. A significantly lower excursion in reactivity during core life may be obtained by nonuniform rather than uniform startup distribution of uranium. Results for SCW with uranium distributed to provide constant radial heat generation and a core life corresponding to a uranium burnup of 7 kilograms indicated a maximum excursion in reactivity of 2.5 percent. This compared to a maximum excursion of 4.2 percent obtained for the same core life when w'anium was uniformly distributed at startup. Boron was incorporated uniformly in these cores at startup. 2. It is possible to approach constant radial heat generation during the life of a cylindrical core by means of startup nonuniform radial and axial distributions of uranium and boron. Results for SCW with nonuniform radial distribution of uranium to provide constant radial heat generation at startup and with boron for longevity indicate relatively small departures from the initially constant radial heat generation distribution during core life. Results for SAR with a sinusoidal distribution rather than uniform axial distributions of boron indicate significant improvements in axial heat generation distribution during the greater part of core life. 3. Uranium investments for cylindrical reactors with nonuniform radial uranium distributions which provide constant radial heat generation per unit core volume are somewhat higher than for reactors with uniform uranium concentration at startup. On the other hand, uranium investments for reactors with axial boron distributions which approach constant axial heat generation are somewhat smaller than for reactors with uniform boron distributions at startup.
Building energy technologies and distributed generation, including energy efficiency (EE), distributed solar PV (DPV), and building electrification, are critical to meeting decarbonization goals. Rate design may play an important role in determining the customer economics of adopting these technologies, but it is unclear whether – and to what extent – current rate design trends support or impede progress toward these goals. In this study, we answer these questions by quantifying the range of residential customer bill impacts of EE, DPV, and building electrification investments under current and emerging time-based retail electricity rate designs (i.e., time-of-use, event-based pricing, coincident demand charges, and real time pricing). We also compare these customer bill savings to power system and societal benefits and assess how well the investments are compensated relative to the societal value they provide.
Under certain assumptions one can predict the formation of a magnetic neutral line on theoretical grounds, generally as a result of an unstable current sheet. Neutral points also seen to form spontaneously in a wide variety of plasma simulatioons, from MHD to fully kinetic. Hence, such magnetic null regions are central to some models of magnetotail energization and magnetic substorms. Yet the observational evidence for such regions remains controversial. This paper presents a new signature of a neutral line: the field-aligned ion beam characteristic of current sheet acceleration becomes dispersed into a 'ridge' in the velocity space distribution function as a neutral line is approached. The results were obtained using single-particle simulations in a fixed magnetic field model. The origin of the ridge is shown to be due to initially earthward going ions which pass through the neutral line region. These ions come from a smaller part of the initially antiearthward flowing distribution, generating the depletion of the distribution function below the ridge.
The purpose of this study is to use NASA radiation transport codes to compare astronaut organ dose equivalents resulting from solar particle events (SPE), geomagnetically trapped protons, and free-space galactic cosmic rays (GCR) using phantom models representing Earth-based and microgravity-based anthropometry and positioning. Methods: The Univer sity of Florida hybrid adult phantoms were scaled to represent male and female astronauts with 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile heights and weights as measured on Earth. Another set of scaled phantoms, incorporating microgravity-induced changes, such as spinal lengthening, leg volume loss, and the assumption of the neutral body position, was also created. A ray-tracer was created and used to generate body self-shielding distributions for dose points within a voxelized phantom under isotropic irradiation conditions, which closely approximates the free-space radiation environment. Simplified external shielding consisting of an aluminum spherical shell was used to consider the influence of a spacesuit or shielding of a hull. These distributions were combined with depth dose distributions generated from the NASA radiation transport codes BRYNTRN (SPE and trapped protons) and HZETRN (GCR) to yield dose equivalent. Many points were sampled per organ. Results: The organ dos e equivalent rates were on the order of 1.5-2.5 mSv per day for GCR (1977 solar minimum) and 0.4-0.8 mSv per day for trapped proton irradiation with shielding of 2 g cm-2 aluminum equivalent. The organ dose equivalents for SPE irradiation varied considerably, with the skin and eye lens having the highest organ dose equivalents and deep-seated organs, such as the bladder, liver, and stomach having the lowest. Conclus ions: The greatest differences between the Earth-based and microgravity-based phantoms are observed for smaller ray thicknesses, since the most drastic changes involved limb repositioning and not overall phantom size. Improved self-shielding models reduce the overall uncertainty in organ dosimetry for mission-risk projections and assessments for astronauts
Improving the reliability of power distribution systems is critically important for both utilities and customers. This calls for an efficient service restoration module within a distribution management system to support the implementation of self-healing smart grid networks. Although the emerging smart grid technologies, including distributed generators (DGs) and remote-controlled switches, enhance the self-healing capability and allow faster recovery, they still pose additional complexity to the service restoration problem, especially under cold load pickup (CLPU) conditions. Herein, a novel two-stage restoration framework is proposed to generate a restoration solutions with a sequence of control actions. The first stage generates a restoration plan that supports both the traditional service restoration using feeder reconfiguration and the grid-forming DG-assisted intentional islanding methods. The second stage generates an optimal sequence of switching operations to bring the outaged system quickly to the final restored configuration. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program that incorporates system connectivity, operating constraints, and the CLPU models. It is demonstrated that on using a multi-feeder test case, the proposed framework is effective in utilizing all available resources to quickly restore the service and generate an optimal sequence of switching actions to be used by the operator to reach the desired optimal configuration.
As part of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)-National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Young Leaders Workforce Training Program in Colombia, the Association of Renewable Energies Colombia (SER) participants leveraged their training and professional experience to develop an action plan for modeling the projected adoption of distributed solar photovoltaics (PV) out to 2050 for the city of Barranquilla, Colombia. This case study provides an overview of the key activities and outcomes of the Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen™) Colombia project.