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DOE OSTI2022

Anisotropic angular scattering models of elastic electron-neutral collisions for Monte Carlo plasma simulations

Many laboratory and industrial plasma applications require accurate modeling techniques to understand the interplay between microscopic and macroscopic processes. A prime example of this interplay is how particle and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation codes describe angular scattering of electrons following elastic scattering events. The forward peaked nature of high energy electron elastic scattering is relatively trivial to accurately describe in plasma simulations. However, for lower energy collisions, which produce near isotropic or backward peaked differential cross sections, there is not a strong consensus among the plasma modeling community on how to best describe these angular scattering trends. Here, in this study, we propose a systematic method to approximate the aforementioned non-trivial angular scattering behavior with a formula that can be readily implemented in particle-in-cell (PIC) and/or MC plasma simulation codes. The present approach is specifically applied to fusion relevant atomic hydrogen and helium, as well as for molecular hydrogen, and results are also applicable to the atomic isotopes and homonuclear molecular isotopologues of these species. Comparisons between the present angular distribution function and benchmark scattering data were used to validate the proposed models. In addition, two-term Boltzmann calculations and PIC direct simulation MC simulations revealed that the proposed angular distribution function is accurate, agreeing very well with benchmark convergent close-coupling scattering calculations, and electron transport measurements. These studies confirmed that the present angular distribution function model can be utilized without the need of renormalization to the momentum transfer cross section (as opposed to using the elastic scattering integrated cross section), which has been suggested by several studies in order to correct for deficient angular scattering models, and to agree with transport measurements. Hence, the present anisotropic angular scattering model can be utilized to accurately model the momentum transfer as well as the electron trajectories of elastic collisions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertain of uncertainties? A comparison of uncertainty quantification metrics for chemical data sets

Abstract With the increasingly more important role of machine learning (ML) models in chemical research, the need for putting a level of confidence to the model predictions naturally arises. Several methods for obtaining uncertainty estimates have been proposed in recent years but consensus on the evaluation of these have yet to be established and different studies on uncertainties generally uses different metrics to evaluate them. We compare three of the most popular validation metrics (Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, the negative log likelihood (NLL) and the miscalibration area) to the error-based calibration introduced by Levi et al. ( Sensors 2022 , 22 , 5540). Importantly, metrics such as the negative log likelihood (NLL) and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient bear little information in themselves. We therefore introduce reference values obtained through errors simulated directly from the uncertainty distribution. The different metrics target different properties and we show how to interpret them, but we generally find the best overall validation to be done based on the error-based calibration plot introduced by Levi et al. Finally, we illustrate the sensitivity of ranking-based methods (e.g. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient) towards test set design by using the same toy model ferent test sets and obtaining vastly different metrics (0.05 vs. 0.65).

Rasmussen, Maria H.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the Likelihood of GHG Concentration Scenarios From Probabilistic Integrated Assessment Model Simulations

The climate scenarios that form the basis for current climate risk assessments have no assigned probabilities, and this impedes the analysis of future climate risks. This paper proposes an approach to estimate the probability of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration scenarios used in key climate change modeling experiments. It computes the CO 2 emissions compatible with the concentrations prescribed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 experiments. The distribution of these compatible cumulative emissions is interpreted as the likelihood of future emissions given a concentration pathway. Using Bayesian analysis, the probability of each pathway can be estimated from a probabilistic sample of future emissions. The approach is demonstrated with five probabilistic CO 2 emission simulation ensembles from four Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), leading to independent estimates of the likelihood of the CO 2 concentration of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Results suggest that SSP5-8.5 is unlikely for the second half of the 21st century, but offer no clear consensus on which of the remaining scenarios is most likely. Estimates of likelihoods of CO 2 concentrations associated with RCP and SSP scenarios are affected by sampling errors, differences in emission sources simulated by the IAMs, and a lack of a common experimental framework for IAM simulations. These shortcomings, along with a small IAM ensemble size, limit the applicability of the results presented here. Novel joint IAM and the Earth System Model experiments are needed to deliver actionable probabilistic climate risk assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Resilient Autonomous Wind Farms: Preprint

With the advent of an increasing number of control strategies that seek to optimize wind turbine performance on a farm-level, taking account of individual wind turbine information to achieve wind farm-level objectives has become an increasingly important goal. Methods for controlling wind turbines on an individual and farm level have seen significant development, and an abundance of new implementations for gathering and using data from turbines have created potential for novel control mechanisms which can further optimize the performance and delivery characteristics of a wind farm. A key element of making these wind farms more efficient is to develop reliable algorithms that use local sensor information that is already being collected, such as supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data, local meteorological stations, and nearby radars/sodars/lidars. Making use of information from all wind turbines in a wind farm can enable such approaches as determining the atmospheric conditions across the farm, improving fault-finding, and enabling more efficient overall control of farm-wide optimizations through mechanisms such as wake-steering. However, these approaches typically involve a centralized communications and control center. In order to ensure the resilient operation of the farm, it is necessary to develop an approach which distributes the calculation and communication amongst multiple nodes throughout the farm. In this fashion, a redundant, robust, and secure network can be created, which can tolerate faults in calculation, communication, and even external attacks which seek to disrupt the operation of the wind farm. This paper introduces the use of the Raft Byzantine Fault Tolerance algorithm in the implementation of autonomous control of a wind farm. This implementation will allow for fault tolerance for malfunctioning nodes, sensors, transmitters, and connectors. This approach is equally extensible to account for malicious actors. It will be shown to achieve overall consensus, provided the number of faults/malicious nodes is less than 3$n$+1, where $n$ is the number of turbine cluster faults which may occur, and to be robust in the face of multiple arbitrary faults.

autonomous↗

DOE OSTI2021

Understanding the Value of Energy Storage for Power System Reliability and Resilience Applications

Abstract Purpose of Review The need for energy storage in the electrical grid has grown in recent years in response to a reduced reliance on fossil fuel baseload power, added intermittent renewable investment, and expanded adoption of distributed energy resources. While the methods and models for valuing storage use cases have advanced significantly in recent years, the value of enhanced resilience remains an open research question. Recent Findings The findings of the recent research indicate that energy storage provides significant value to the grid, with median benefit values for specific use cases ranging from under $10/kW-year for voltage support to roughly $100/kW-year for capacity and frequency regulation services. While the value of lost load is used widely to estimate the benefits of mitigating short-duration outages, reaching as high as $719/kilowatt-year, there is no consensus when it comes to monetizing the value of improving grid resilience. Summary This paper presents a use case taxonomy for energy storage and uses the taxonomy to conduct a meta-analysis of an extensive set of energy storage valuation studies. It reviews several approaches for monetizing reliability and resiliency services and presents a proposed approach for valuing resiliency for energy storage investments.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Solving the Grid Optimization Competition Challenge 3 Problem

The Grid Optimization Competition Challenge 3 Problem posed a multiperiod security-constrained unit commitment problem with base-case AC power flow. The problem formulation includes binary unit commitment decisions, nonlinear AC power flow and balance, dispatchable loads, and linearized contingency real power flow, among other features. This talk will present a modified consensus ADMM algorithm, which splits the problem into mixed-integer linear and nonlinear components, as a heuristic solution method for this large-scale mixed integer nonlinear program. We will present some computational results from the competition for our implementation and reflect on the challenges of participating the grid optimization competition.

AC power flow↗

DOE OSTI2020

Distributed Ledger Technology Preliminary Performance Assessment for Applications in Utilities Operational Technology

This paper provides descriptions of the key components of different distributed ledger technology platforms. Distributed ledger technology (DLT) allows for distribution of databases among different organizations and devices. The platforms use cryptographically linked “blocks” to store and verify transactional information between these organizations. DLT increases data security, data integrity, trust among its participants. Different organizations are looking to deploy this distributed and decentralized approach to avoid the single-point-of-failure vulnerabilities associated with centralized data repositories. In this study we examine twelve different DLT platforms. There is agreement within the community that of all the platforms considered here, Hyperledger and Ethereum are the most mature when it comes to privacy and permissions. These DLT platforms are being used for applications such as transactive energy, health care, and the food and goods supply chain. However, further development is required to realize the full promise of DLT. Our assessment includes a general description of each DLT and its key characteristics. Such characteristics include consensus protocol and cryptography used, public vs. private, and permissioned or permissionless. The selection and implementation of a DLT architecture depends heavily on the use case and performance requirements. During this research we found key parameters to measure performance and existing tools for assessment. Four different parameters were identified 1) consensus, 2) throughput, 3) latency, and 4) scalability. The architectures of Hyperledger Caliper and Blockbench are described as different performance assessment frameworks. From this preliminary study it is evident that there are dissimilarities on the performance assessments methods developers and users are characterizing DLT architectures. The purpose of this paper is to identify key parameters to test performance, tools that are being used and provide information on results from previous studies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physical and Hydraulic Properties of RCRA Borehole Samples from the Hanford Site : Final Report, Fiscal Years 2023-2024

Sediment from 44 core samples collected from Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) boreholes drilled in the 200 East and 200 West areas of the Hanford Site were characterized for physical and hydraulic properties (Table S.1). Characterization data included gravimetric water contents and matric potentials, grain-size distributions, saturated hydraulic conductivity, water retention characteristics, and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity. These properties provide site-specific data and parameters that can be used in subsurface flow and contaminant transport models to assess the transport and fate of contaminants in the vadose zone and underlying aquifer systems. The analyzed core samples come from specific areas and depth intervals at the Hanford Site that were targeted for sampling to address data gaps identified by site contractors (Khaleel 2020). X-ray computed tomography (XCT) was used to evaluate the general textural characteristics of the samples and to determine which samples to use for further physical and hydraulic property characterization. Subsequent sample selection was determined by consensus after review of the XCT images by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Central Plateau Cleanup Company, and INTERA staff.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

The completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: N -body mock challenge for the quasar sample

ABSTRACT The growth rate and expansion history of the Universe can be measured from large galaxy redshift surveys using the Alcock–Paczynski effect. We validate the Redshift Space Distortion models used in the final analysis of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) Data Release 16 quasar clustering sample, in configuration and Fourier space, using a series of halo occupation distribution mock catalogues generated using the OuterRim N-body simulation. We test three models on a series of non-blind mocks, in the OuterRim cosmology, and blind mocks, which have been rescaled to new cosmologies, and investigate the effects of redshift smearing and catastrophic redshifts. We find that for the non-blind mocks, the models are able to recover fσ8 to within 3 per cent and α∥ and α⊥ to within 1 per cent. The scatter in the measurements is larger for the blind mocks, due to the assumption of an incorrect fiducial cosmology. From this mock challenge, we find that all three models perform well, with similar systematic errors on fσ8, α∥, and α⊥ at the level of $\sigma _{f\sigma _8}=0.013$, $\sigma _{\alpha _\parallel }=0.012$, and $\sigma _{\alpha _\bot }=0.008$. The systematic error on the combined consensus is $\sigma _{f\sigma _8}=0.011$, $\sigma _{\alpha _\parallel }=0.008$, and $\sigma _{\alpha _\bot }=0.005$, which is used in the final DR16 analysis. For baryon acoustic oscillation fits in configuration and Fourier space, we take conservative systematic errors of $\sigma _{\alpha _\parallel }=0.010$ and $\sigma _{\alpha _\bot }=0.007$.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Pressure–Strain Interaction as the Energy Dissipation Estimate in Collisionless Plasma

The dissipative mechanism in weakly collisional plasma is a topic that pervades decades of studies without a consensus solution. We compare several energy dissipation estimates based on energy transfer processes in plasma turbulence and provide justification for the pressure–strain interaction as a direct estimate of the energy dissipation rate. The global and scale-by-scale energy balances are examined in 2.5D and 3D kinetic simulations. We show that the global internal energy increase and the temperature enhancement of each species are directly tracked by the pressure–strain interaction. The incompressive part of the pressure–strain interaction dominates over its compressive part in all simulations considered. The scale-by-scale energy balance is quantified by scale filtered Vlasov–Maxwell equations, a kinetic plasma approach, and the lag dependent von Kármán–Howarth equation, an approach based on fluid models. We find that the energy balance is exactly satisfied across all scales, but the lack of a well-defined inertial range influences the distribution of the energy budget among different terms in the inertial range. Therefore, the widespread use of the Yaglom relation in estimating the dissipation rate is questionable in some cases, especially when the scale separation in the system is not clearly defined. In contrast, the pressure–strain interaction balances exactly the dissipation rate at kinetic scales regardless of the scale separation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Completed SDSS-IV Extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: N-body Mock Challenge for Galaxy Clustering Measurements

We develop a series of N-body data challenges, functional to the final analysis of the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) Data Release 16 (DR16) galaxy sample. The challenges are primarily based on high-fidelity catalogues constructed from the Outer Rim simulation - a large box size realization (3h(-1) Gpc) characterized by an unprecedented combination of volume and mass resolution, down to 1.85 x 10(9) h(-1)M(circle dot). We generate synthetic galaxy mocks by populating Outer Rim haloes with a variety of halo occupation distribution (HOD) schemes of increasing complexity, spanning different redshift intervals. We then assess the performance of three complementary redshift space distortion (RSD) models in configuration and Fourier space, adopted for the analysis of the complete DR16 eBOSS sample of Luminous Red Galaxies (LRG5). We find all the methods mutually consistent, with comparable systematic errors on the Alcock-Paczynski parameters and the growth of structure, and robust to different HOD prescriptions - thus validating the robustness of the models and the pipelines used for the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) and full shape clustering analysis. In particular, all the techniques are able to recover and alpha(11) to within 0.9 per cent, and f sigma(8) to within 1.5 per cent. As a by-product of our work, we are also able to gain interesting insights on the galaxy-halo connection. Our study is relevant for the final eBOSS DR16 'consensus cosmology', as the systematic error budget is informed by testing the results of analyses against these high-resolution mocks. In addition, it is also useful for future large-volume surveys, since similar mock-making techniques and systematic corrections can be readily extended to model for instance the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) galaxy sample.

cosmology: theory, large-scale structure of Univer↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Approach to Transactive Energy Systems with Commercial Buildings

A microgrid with solar, storage, and responsive load resources has been implemented and tested on an urban academic campus. Through modeling and simulation, a consensus transactive energy mechanism has been implemented, with each resource participating as a virtual battery. Most owners of large buildings don't have the information and expertise to develop and validate suitable models of their buildings using available tools. To mitigate this adoption barrier, a data-driven building model has been implemented and validated. It uses 5-minute weather data, 3-second revenue meter data, energy audit information, and a load reduction test conducted by the building owner.

Buildings, data-driven modeling, deep learning, en↗

DOE OSTI2022

Harmonized Automatic Relay Mitigation of Nefarious Intentional Events (HARMONIE) - Special Protection Scheme (SPS)

The harmonized automatic relay mitigation of nefarious intentional events (HARMONIE) special protection scheme (SPS) was developed to provide adaptive, cyber-physical response to unpredictable disturbances in the electric grid. The HARMONIE-SPS methodology includes a machine learning classification framework that analyzes real time cyber-physical data and determines if the system is in normal conditions, cyber disturbance, physical disturbance, or cyber-physical disturbance. This classification then informs response, if needed and/or suitable, and included cyber-physical corrective actions. Beyond standard power system mitigations, a few novel approaches were developed that included a consensus algorithm-based relay voting scheme, an automated power system triggering condition and corrective action pairing algorithm, and a cyber traffic routing optimization algorithm. Both the classification and response techniques were tested within a newly integrated emulation environment composed of a real-time digital simulator (RTDS) and SCEPTRE™. This report details the HARMONIE-SPS methodology, highlighting both the classification and response techniques, and the subsequent testing results from the emulation environment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Performance Specifications for Grid-Forming Technologies

Standards and specifications for inverter-based resources (IBRs) focus primarily on grid-following (GFL) technologies at present. Therefore, these may generally not be appropriate for application in power systems to ensure acceptable operation with grid-forming (GFM) technologies. In some cases, the direct application of prevailing standards and specifications may not be appropriate for - or may even inadvertently limit the potential of - GFM resources. The Universal Interoperability for Grid- Forming Inverters (UNIFI) Consortium is a U.S. Department of Energy funded effort to advance GFM technology. The UNIFI team brings together academic, industrial, and national-lab researchers as well as industry stakeholders (utilities, system operators, vendors) to collaboratively pursue advances in a broad range of GFM technologies. This paper introduces a set of system- and unit-level specifications driven by consensus across the UNIFI project team. These are intended to seamlessly integrate GFM technologies at any scale into power-systems operation and control in a vendor-agnostic manner. A suite of illustrative simulation results that demonstrate the application of and adherence to the proposed specifications are included.

grid-forming inverter↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Dynamics of Debris Disk Creation in Neutron Star Mergers

Abstract The detection of GW170817/AT2017gfo inaugurated an era of multimessenger astrophysics, in which gravitational-wave and multiwavelength photon observations complement one another to provide unique insight into astrophysical systems. A broad theoretical consensus exists, in which the photon phenomenology of neutron star mergers largely rests upon the evolution of the small amount of matter left on bound orbits around the black hole or massive neutron star remaining after the merger. Because this accretion disk is far from inflow equilibrium, its subsequent evolution depends very strongly on its initial state, yet very little is known about how this state is determined. Using both snapshot and tracer particle data from a numerical relativity/MHD simulation of an equal-mass neutron star merger that collapses to a black hole, we show how gravitational forces arising in a nonaxisymmetric, dynamical spacetime supplement hydrodynamical effects in shaping the initial structure of the bound debris disk. The work done by hydrodynamical forces is ∼10 times greater than that due to time-dependent gravity. Although gravitational torques prior to remnant relaxation are an order of magnitude larger than hydrodynamical torques, their intrinsic sign symmetry leads to strong cancellation; as a result, hydrodynamical and gravitational torques have a comparable effect. We also show that the debris disk’s initial specific angular momentum distribution is sharply peaked at roughly the specific angular momentum of the merged neutron star’s outer layers, a fewr g c, and identify the regulating mechanism.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Oscillatory Power Control and Consensus in Unbalanced Networks Using Grid Forming Inverters

In this paper, a state-space nonlinear control previously designed for balanced operation of grid-forming (GFM) inverters is extended to unbalanced operations. Unbalanced voltages and currents are analyzed, and their time-varying direct, quadrature, and zero components are parameterized in terms of six constant parameters. These parameters provide primary control design choices for not only an inverter’s terminal voltage but also its injections of both real and oscillatory power. It is shown that the proposed GFM control can precisely achieve a desired balanced terminal voltage under unbalanced loads. It is also shown that, by allowing the terminal voltage to be slightly unbalanced, oscillatory power can be adaptively minimized. Lastly, it is illustrated that oscillatory power can also be shared among multiple GFM inverters. Case studies and their simulations demonstrate that the proposed GFM control is effective in meeting the aforementioned objectives.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR-MS) peak intensity normalization for complex mixture analyses

Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR-MS) is a preferred technique for analyzing complex organic mixtures. Currently, there is no consensus normalization approach, nor an objective method for selecting one, for quantitative analyses of FT-ICR-MS data. We investigate a method to evaluate and score the amount of bias various normalization approaches introduce into the data. We evaluate the ability of the Statistical Procedure for the Analysis of Normalization Strategies (SPANS) to guide selection of appropriate normalization approaches for two different FT-ICR-MS datasets. Further, we test the robustness of SPANS results to changes in SPANS parameter values and assess the impact of using various normalization approaches on downstream statistical analyses. The normalization approach identified by SPANS differed for the two datasets. Normalization methods impacted the statistical significance of peaks differently, underscoring the importance of carefully evaluating potential methods. More consistent SPANS scores resulted when at least 120 significant peaks are used, where larger sets of peaks were obtained by increasing the p-value threshold. Interestingly, we show that Total Sum Scaling and highest peak normalization, used in previous studies, underperformed relative to SPANS-recommended normalization approaches. While there is no single, best normalization method for all datasets, SPANS provides a mechanism to identify an appropriate normalization method for analyzing FT-ICR-MS data quantitatively. As a result, the number of peaks used in the background distributions of SPANS contributes more significantly to the reproducibility of results than the p-value thresholds used to obtain those peaks.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Electromagnetic Transient Modeling of Large Data Centers for Grid-Level Studies

The magnitude and complexity of electricity usage patterns from large data centers are having significant impacts on the operation and dynamics of the power grid; grid operators and planners require a range of specialized data center models to properly evaluate these impacts and specify technical solutions as needed. Towards addressing this need, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed a library of electromagnetic transient (EMT) models for grid-level studies of data centers called the data center model library (DML). This report describes how the DML was created and how it may properly be used. The models present in the DML are generic models; subject matter expertise and additional technical data are needed to modify these models before they can represent any real data center. However, they will significantly reduce the level of effort required to develop site-specific models and can serve as a common starting point to guide industry towards a more refined consensus. Most of the models within DML are dedicated to representing the power electronics interfaces commonly used in modern data centers, such as double-conversion uninterruptible power supplies and single-phase power factor correction converters. These models are intended for use in grid-level studies and are a simplified aggregation of many small components. That said, background material on the physical and electrical design of large data centers is provided as companion material so that users can be aware of many of the details which have been omitted or streamlined as a matter of practical necessity. Additionally, guidance on the application of EMT analysis for data center interconnection studies is provided, which aids users in identifying when the DML is necessary and what sort of additional model development may be necessary for conducting real-world studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗