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NASA NTRS1989

The formation of the solar system - Consensus, alternatives, and missing factors

The current status on the theories of the solar-system formation is overviewed with emphasis placed on the principal concepts and processes involved. These processes include the formation of about 1 to 10 km diam planetesimals from the dust of the solar nebula; the physical processes that govern the interaction of these planetesimals with one another, which control their size and their velocity distribution; the circumstances that determine the way in which the planetesimals grow into planetary embryos; the processes that are likely to be important during the final stages of accumulation; and the possible origin of differences between the accumulation of the terrestrial planets, the giant planets, and the asteroids.

Wetherill, George W.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust Decentralized Learning Using ADMM With Unreliable Agents

Many signal processing and machine learning problems can be formulated as consensus optimization problems which can be solved efficiently via a cooperative multi-agent system. However, the agents in the system can be unreliable due to a variety of reasons: noise, faults and attacks. Providing erroneous updates leads the optimization process in a wrong direction, and degrades the performance of distributed machine learning algorithms. This paper considers the problem of decentralized learning using ADMM in the presence of unreliable agents. First, we rigorously analyze the effect of erroneous updates (in ADMM learning iterations) on the convergence behavior of the multi-agent system. We show that the algorithm linearly converges to a neighborhood of the optimal solution under certain conditions and characterize the neighborhood size analytically. Next, we provide guidelines for network design to achieve a faster convergence to the neighborhood. Here, we also provide conditions on the erroneous updates for exact convergence to the optimal solution. Finally, to mitigate the influence of unreliable agents, we propose ROAD , a robust variant of ADMM, and show its resilience to unreliable agents with an exact convergence to the optimum.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2024

Smallsat 2024 - Starling Cubesat Swarm Technology Demonstration Flight Results

The Starling swarm of four 6U CubeSats launched in July 2023 to test four key technologies to enable future swarm missions: 1) Mobile Ad-Hoc Networking (MANET) over a crosslink radio network 2) Autonomous onboard decision-making for operations 3) Optical-based absolute and relative navigation 4) Autonomous maneuver planning and execution The Starling team implemented the Better Approach to Mobile Ad-hoc Networking (B.A.T.M.A.N.) protocol to automatically manage the crosslink network of four satellites. The B.A.T.M.A.N. protocol uses a decentralized approach to managing a multi-hop mesh network of devices, in this case, a satellite swarm. The four satellites were able to successfully establish a network at multiple data rates and demonstrate file transfer and command issuance between spacecraft over the network. Starling incorporated Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy's (DSA) software to demonstrate onboard decision-making. The DSA software takes L1/L2 band GPS measurements and uses them to estimate the relative Total Electron Count (TEC) in the ionosphere. The onboard software then determines if there are any features of interest and provides that information to the other satellites over the crosslink network. The swarm of satellites then reaches a consensus on the optimal TEC observation strategy and adjusts its measurement collection tactics autonomously. The Starling Formation-Flying Optical Experiment (StarFOX), produced by Stanford's Space Rendezvous Laboratory, uses the onboard star trackers to collect images of the other swarm spacecraft and produce angles-only navigation estimates. This system is envisioned to be valuable in applications in which Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are not available, such as in cis-lunar or deep space. StarFOX successfully applied its algorithms to multiple simultaneous spacecraft targets using the star tracker imagery. Finally, Starling used Emergent Space's Cluster Flight Application (CFA) software suite for the Reconfiguration and Orbit Maintenance Experiments Onboard (ROMEO) demonstration of autonomously planning and executing propulsive maneuvers. Large swarms will need to be able to maintain formation requirements with minimal operator involvement, especially as the size of the swarm scales up. Results from the ROMEO experiment are presented. Starling is funded by the Small Spacecraft Technology (SST) program out of NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD).

distributed systems↗

NASA NTRS2004

Argumentation for coordinating shared activities

an increasing need for space missions to be able to collaboratively (and competitively) develop plans both within and across missions. In addition, interacting spacecraft that interleave onboard planning and execution must reach consensus on their commitments to each other prior to execution. In domains where missions have varying degrees of interaction and different constraints on communication and computation, the missions will require different coordination protocols in order to efficiently reach consensus with in their imposed deadlines. We describe a Shared Activity Coordination (SHAC) framework that provides a decentralized algorithm for negotiating the scheduling of shared activities over the lifetimes of multiple agents and a foundation for customizing protocols for negotiating planner interactions. We investigate variations of a few simple protocols based on argumentation and distributed constraints satisfaction techniques and evaluate their abilities to reach consistent solutions according to computation, time, and communication costs in an abstract domain where spacecraft propose joint measurements.

Mars↗

NASA NTRS1992

Survivable algorithms and redundancy management in NASA's distributed computing systems

The design of survivable algorithms requires a solid foundation for executing them. While hardware techniques for fault-tolerant computing are relatively well understood, fault-tolerant operating systems, as well as fault-tolerant applications (survivable algorithms), are, by contrast, little understood, and much more work in this field is required. We outline some of our work that contributes to the foundation of ultrareliable operating systems and fault-tolerant algorithm design. We introduce our consensus-based framework for fault-tolerant system design. This is followed by a description of a hierarchical partitioning method for efficient consensus. A scheduler for redundancy management is introduced, and application-specific fault tolerance is described. We give an overview of our hybrid algorithm technique, which is an alternative to the formal approach given.

Malek, Miroslaw↗

DOE OSTI2021

Monotonicity in the averaging process

In this work, we investigate an averaging process that describes how interacting agents approach consensus through binary interactions. In each elementary step, two agents are selected at random and they reach compromise by adopting their opinion average. We show that the fraction of agents with a monotonically decreasing opinion decays as e - αt , and that the exponent is selected as the extremum from a continuous spectrum of possible values. The opinion distribution of monotonic agents is asymmetric, and it becomes self-similar at large times. Furthermore, the tails of the opinion distribution are algebraic, and they are characterized by two distinct and nontrivial exponents. We also explore statistical properties of agents with an opinion strictly above average.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1996

Use of the Collaborative Optimization Architecture for Launch Vehicle Design

Collaborative optimization is a new design architecture specifically created for large-scale distributed-analysis applications. In this approach, problem is decomposed into a user-defined number of subspace optimization problems that are driven towards interdisciplinary compatibility and the appropriate solution by a system-level coordination process. This decentralized design strategy allows domain-specific issues to be accommodated by disciplinary analysts, while requiring interdisciplinary decisions to be reached by consensus. The present investigation focuses on application of the collaborative optimization architecture to the multidisciplinary design of a single-stage-to-orbit launch vehicle. Vehicle design, trajectory, and cost issues are directly modeled. Posed to suit the collaborative architecture, the design problem is characterized by 5 design variables and 16 constraints. Numerous collaborative solutions are obtained. Comparison of these solutions demonstrates the influence which an priori ascent-abort criterion has on development cost. Similarly, objective-function selection is discussed, demonstrating the difference between minimum weight and minimum cost concepts. The operational advantages of the collaborative optimization

Braun, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS2009

V3885 Sagittarius: A Comparison With a Range of Standard Model Accretion Disks

A chi-squared analysis of standard model accretion disk synthetic spectrum fits to combined Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer and Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph spectra of V3885 Sagittarius, on an absolute flux basis, selects a model that accurately represents the observed spectral energy distribution. Calculation of the synthetic spectrum requires the following system parameters. The cataclysmic variable secondary star period-mass relation calibrated by Knigge in 2006 and 2007 sets the secondary component mass. A mean white dwarf (WD) mass from the same study, which is consistent with an observationally determined mass ratio, sets the adopted WD mass of 0.7M(solar mass), and the WD radius follows from standard theoretical models. The adopted inclination, i = 65 deg, is a literature consensus, and is subsequently supported by chi-squared analysis. The mass transfer rate is the remaining parameter to set the accretion disk T(sub eff) profile, and the Hipparcos parallax constrains that parameter to mas transfer = (5.0 +/- 2.0) x 10(exp -9) M(solar mass)/yr by a comparison with observed spectra. The fit to the observed spectra adopts the contribution of a 57,000 +/- 5000 K WD. The model thus provides realistic constraints on mass transfer and T(sub eff) for a large mass transfer system above the period gap.

MASS TRANSFER RATE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Revisiting Experimental Signatures of the Ponderomotive Force

The classical theory of single-electron dynamics in focused laser pulses is the foundation of both the relativistic ponderomotive force (RPF), which underlies models of laser-collective-plasma dynamics, and the discovery of novel strong-field radiation dynamics. Despite this bedrock importance, consensus eludes the community as to whether acceleration of single electrons in vacuum has been observed in experimental conditions. We analyze an early experiment on the RPF with respect to several features that were neglected in modeling and that can restore consistency between theory predictions and experimental data. The right or wrong pulse profile function, laser parameters, or initial electron distribution can each make or break the agreement between predictions and data. The laser phase at which the electron’s interaction with the pulse begins has a large effect, explaining why much larger energies are achieved by electrons liberated in the focal region by photoionization from high-Z atoms and by electrons ejected from a plasma mirror. Finally, we compute the difference in a typical electron spectrum arising from fluctuating focal spot size in state-of-the-art ultra-relativistic laser facilities. Our results emphasize the importance of thoroughly characterizing laser parameters in order to achieve quantitatively accurate predictions and the precision required for discovery science.

Hegelich, Bjorn Manuel↗

NASA NTRS2018

Sea-Level Rise: Projections for Maryland 2018

In fulfillment of requirements of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change Act of 2015, this report provides updated projections of the amount of sea-level rise relative to Maryland coastal lands that is expected into the next century. These projections represent the consensus of an Expert Group drawn from the Mid-Atlantic region. The framework for these projections is explicitly tied to the projections of global sea-level rise included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (2014) and incorporates regional factors such as subsidence, distance from melting glaciers and polar ice sheets, and ocean currents. The probability distribution of estimates of relative sea-level rise from the baseline year of 2000 are provided over time and, after 2050, for three different greenhouse gas emissions pathways: Growing Emissions (RCP8.5), Stabilized Emissions (RCP4.5), and meeting the Paris Agreement (RCP2.6). This framework has been recently used in developing relative sea-level rise projections for California, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, and Delaware as well as several metropolitan areas. The Likely range (66% probability) of the relative rise of mean sea level expected in Maryland between 2000 and 2050 is 0.8 to 1.6 feet, with about a one-in-twenty chance it could exceed 2.0 feet and about a one-in-one hundred chance it could exceed 2.3 feet. Later this century, rates of sea-level rise increasingly depend on the future pathway of global emissions of greenhouse gases during the next sixty years. If emissions continue to grow well into the second half of the 21st century, the Likely range of sea-level rise experienced in Maryland is 2.0 to 4.2 feet over this century, two to four times the sea-level rise experienced during the 20th century. Moreover, there is a one-in-twenty chance that it could exceed 5.2 feet. If, on the other hand, global society were able to bring net greenhouse gas emissions to zero in time to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and reduce emissions sufficient to limit the increase in global mean temperature to less than 2°Celsius over pre-industrial levels, the Likely range for 2100 is 1.2 to 3.0 feet, with a one-in-twenty chance that it would exceed 3.7 feet. The difference in sea-level rise between these contrasting scenarios would diverge even more during the next century, with the failure to reduce emissions in the near term resulting in much greater sea-level rise 100 years from now. Moreover, recent research suggests that, without imminent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the loss of polar ice sheets-and thus the rate of sea-level rise-may be more rapid than assumed in these projections, particularly under the Growing Emissions scenario. These probabilistic sea-level rise projections can and should be used in planning and regulation, infrastructure siting and design, estimation of changes in tidal range and storm surge, developing inundation mapping tools, and adaptation strategies for high-tide flooding and saltwater intrusion.

Boesch, D. F.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Overview of Developments in Voluntary Consensus Standards for Counterfeit Parts Avoidance

The presentation provides an introduction to the electronic parts supply chain and various standards used for preventing counterfeit parts. The presentation provides detailed instruction on various non-destructive techniques, destructive and analytical steps for inspecting suspect counterfeit parts. The techniques are based on the AS6171 Aerospace Standard which standardizes the test and inspection procedures, workmanship criteria, and minimum training and certification requirements to detect counterfeit electrical, electronic, and electromechanical parts. Also included are discussions of other inspection, sampling and distribution standards.

Sood, Bhanu↗

DOE OSTI2022

Global biomass supply modeling for long-run management of the climate system

Bioenergy is projected to have a prominent, valuable, and maybe essential, role in climate management. However, there is significant variation in projected bioenergy deployment results, as well as concerns about the potential environmental and social implications of supplying biomass. Bioenergy deployment projections are market equilibrium solutions from integrated modeling, yet little is known about the underlying modeling of the supply of biomass as a feedstock for energy use in these modeling frameworks. We undertake a novel diagnostic analysis with ten global models to elucidate, compare, and assess how biomass is supplied within the models used to inform long-run climate management. With experiments that isolate and reveal biomass supply modeling behavior and characteristics (costs, emissions, land use, market effects), we learn about biomass supply tendencies and differences. The insights provide a new level of modeling transparency and understanding of estimated global biomass supplies that informs evaluation of the potential for bioenergy in managing the climate and interpretation of integrated modeling. For each model, we characterize the potential distributions of global biomass supply across regions and feedstock types for increasing levels of quantity supplied, as well as some of the potential societal externalities of supplying biomass. We also evaluate the biomass supply implications of managing these externalities. Finally, we interpret biomass market results from integrated modeling in terms of our new understanding of biomass supply. Overall, we find little consensus between models on where biomass could be cost-effectively produced and the implications. We also reveal model specific biomass supply narratives, with results providing new insights into integrated modeling bioenergy outcomes and differences. The analysis finds that many integrated models are considering and managing emissions and land use externalities of supplying biomass and estimating that environmental and societal trade-offs in the form of land emissions, land conversion, and higher agricultural prices are cost-effective, and to some degree a reality of using biomass, to address climate change.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS2011

Local Estimators for Spacecraft Formation Flying

A formation estimation architecture for formation flying builds upon the local information exchange among multiple local estimators. Spacecraft formation flying involves the coordination of states among multiple spacecraft through relative sensing, inter-spacecraft communication, and control. Most existing formation flying estimation algorithms can only be supported via highly centralized, all-to-all, static relative sensing. New algorithms are needed that are scalable, modular, and robust to variations in the topology and link characteristics of the formation exchange network. These distributed algorithms should rely on a local information-exchange network, relaxing the assumptions on existing algorithms. In this research, it was shown that only local observability is required to design a formation estimator and control law. The approach relies on breaking up the overall information-exchange network into sequence of local subnetworks, and invoking an agreement-type filter to reach consensus among local estimators within each local network. State estimates were obtained by a set of local measurements that were passed through a set of communicating Kalman filters to reach an overall state estimation for the formation. An optimization approach was also presented by means of which diffused estimates over the network can be incorporated in the local estimates obtained by each estimator via local measurements. This approach compares favorably with that obtained by a centralized Kalman filter, which requires complete knowledge of the raw measurement available to each estimator.

Fathpour, Nanaz↗

DOE OSTI2023

BigNeuron: a resource to benchmark and predict performance of algorithms for automated tracing of neurons in light microscopy datasets

BigNeuron is an open community bench-testing platform with the goal of setting open standards for accurate and fast automatic neuron tracing. We gathered a diverse set of image volumes across several species that is representative of the data obtained in many neuroscience laboratories interested in neuron tracing. Here, we report generated gold standard manual annotations for a subset of the available imaging datasets and quantified tracing quality for 35 automatic tracing algorithms. The goal of generating such a hand-curated diverse dataset is to advance the development of tracing algorithms and enable generalizable benchmarking. Together with image quality features, we pooled the data in an interactive web application that enables users and developers to perform principal component analysis, t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding, correlation and clustering, visualization of imaging and tracing data, and benchmarking of automatic tracing algorithms in user-defined data subsets. The image quality metrics explain most of the variance in the data, followed by neuromorphological features related to neuron size. Furthermore, we observed that diverse algorithms can provide complementary information to obtain accurate results and developed a method to iteratively combine methods and generate consensus reconstructions. The consensus trees obtained provide estimates of the neuron structure ground truth that typically outperform single algorithms in noisy datasets. However, specific algorithms may outperform the consensus tree strategy in specific imaging conditions. Finally, to aid users in predicting the most accurate automatic tracing results without manual annotations for comparison, we used support vector machine regression to predict reconstruction quality given an image volume and a set of automatic tracings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2004

Controlling Distributed Planning

A system of software implements an extended version of an approach, denoted shared activity coordination (SHAC), to the interleaving of planning and the exchange of plan information among organizations devoted to different missions that normally communicate infrequently except that they need to collaborate on joint activities and/or the use of shared resources. SHAC enables the planning and scheduling systems of the organizations to coordinate by resolving conflicts while optimizing local planning solutions. The present software provides a framework for modeling and executing communication protocols for SHAC. Shared activities are represented in each interacting planning system to establish consensus on joint activities or to inform the other systems of consumption of a common resource or a change in a shared state. The representations of shared activities are extended to include information on (1) the role(s) of each participant, (2) permissions (defined as specifications of which participant controls what aspects of shared activities and scheduling thereof), and (3) constraints on the parameters of shared activities. Also defined in the software are protocols for changing roles, permissions, and constraints during the course of coordination and execution.

Clement, Bradley↗

DOE OSTI2022

Promoting Domestic and International Consensus - Program Area 1: Carbon Capture & Storage & Clean Energy Systems

This is the Final Report for the U.S. Department of Energy Cooperative Agreement DE-FE-0024159, Promoting Domestic and International Consensus on Fossil Energy Technologies: Carbon Capture and Storage and Clean Energy Systems carried out by the United States Energy Association. It is a compendium of each quarterly report submitted over the 7-year period of the agreement accounting for all accomplishments, including major activities, significant results, major findings or conclusions, key outcomes or other achievements. Changes in approach or aims, and reasons for those changes, are included as well as any problems or delays and actions taken and planned to resolve them. It also summarizes budget statuses and any changes in key personnel throughout the life of the agreement. Originally planned for 5 years, the agreement was extended twice through back-to-back no-cost extensions, one to enable full completion of tasks critical to the program’s success and the other due to the Covid-19 Pandemic. The goals of the program were to provide increased knowledge regarding Carbon, Capture, and Storage (CCS) and Clean Energy Systems (CES) to Industry and Government decision makers, technology developers, educators, policymakers, environmental and other stakeholders, and the public by sharing research, technologies, and best practices with domestic and international partners. Increasing such knowledge was key to the other goals of the program of building of a broad consensus among domestic and international decision makers, stakeholders, and the public to take action to support and implement CCS and CES technologies and systems to ensure clean, secure, and affordable energy while enhancing environmental protection. The program accomplished these goals through a series of activities including hosting of conferences and workshops, in-person briefings, virtual webinars, reports and white papers, and keeping stakeholders informed of industry happenings through email distribution lists. It is the belief of the authors of this report, that these activities can be considered to have been successful in their goals.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS2018

The NASA Eulerian Snow on Sea Ice Model (NESOSIM) v1.0: initial model development and analysis

The NASA Eulerian Snow On Sea Ice Model (NESOSIM) is a new, open-source snow budget model that is currentlyconfigured to produce daily estimates of the depth and density of snow on sea ice across the Arctic Ocean throughthe accumulation season. NESOSIM has been developed in a three-dimensional Eulerian framework and includes two(vertical) snow layers and several simple parameterizations (accumulation, wind packing, advection_divergence, blowingsnow lost to leads) to represent key sources and sinks of snow on sea ice. The model is forced with daily inputs of snowfall and near-surface winds (from reanalyses), sea ice concentration (from satellite passive microwave data) and sea ice drift (from satellite feature tracking) during the accumulation season (August through April). In this study, we present the NESOSIM formulation, calibration efforts, sensitivity studies and validation efforts across an Arctic Ocean domain (100 km horizontal resolution). The simulated snow depth and density are calibrated with in situ data collected on drifting ice stations during the 1980s. NESOSIM shows strong agreement with the in situ seasonal cycles of snow depth and density, and shows good (moderate) agreement with the regional snow depth (density) distributions. NESOSIM is run for a contemporary period (2000 to 2015), with the results showing strong sensitivity to the reanalysis derived snowfall forcing data, with the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and the Japanese Meteorological Agency 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55) forced snow depths generally higher than ERA-Interim,and the Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) generally lower. We also generate and force NESOSIM with a consensus "median" daily snowfall dataset from these reanalyses.The results are compared against snow depth estimates derived from NASA's Operation IceBridge (OIB) snow radar data from 2009 to 2015, showing moderate_strong correlations and root mean squared errors of 10 cm depending on the OIB snow depth product analyzed, similar to the comparisons between OIB snow depths and the commonly used modified Warren snow depth climatology. Potential improvements to this initial NESOSIM formulation are discussed in the hopes of improving the accuracy and reliability of these simulated snow depths and densities.

Petty, Alek A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Evaluating the Application of Multi-Satellite Observations in Hydrologic Modeling

When monitoring local or regional hydrosphere dynamics for applications such as agricultural productivity or drought and flooding events, it is necessary to have accurate, high-resolution estimates of terrestrial water and energy storages. Though in-situ observations provide reliable estimates of hydrologic states and fluxes, they are only capable of accurately capturing the dynamics at relatively discrete points in space and time, which makes them inadequate for characterizing the variability of the water budget across scales. In contrast, satellite-based remote sensing is ideal for providing observations of hydrological states and fluxes because it provides spatially-distributed observations at spatial and temporal scales required for regional land surface process modeling. Due to the continued progress in algorithm development and emerging satellite technology, we now have near-real time monitoring of several components of the water cycle including precipitation, soil moisture, lake and river height, terrestrial water storage, snow cover, and evapotranspiration. As these data become more readily available, their application to hydrologic modeling is becoming more common, however there remains little consensus on the most appropriate method for optimal integration and evaluation in regard to hydrological applications. Here we present two case studies operationally applying several remotely sensed products from AMSR-E, GRACE, and MODIS and discuss assimilation strategies, ease of integration and interpretation, and methods for quantifying the success of the application methodology.

Bolten, John↗