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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Normalizing flows for likelihood-free inference with fusion simulations

Fluid-based scrape-off layer transport codes, such as UEDGE, are heavily utilized in tokamak analysis and design, but typically require user-specified anomalous transport coefficients to match experiments. Determining the uniqueness of these parameters and the uncertainties in them to match experiments can provide valuable insights to fusion scientists. Here, we leverage recent work in the area of likelihood-free inference (‘simulation-based inference’) to train a neural network, which enables accurate statistical inference of the anomalous transport coefficients given experimental plasma profile input. UEDGE is treated as a black-box simulator and runs multiple times with anomalous transport coefficients sampled from priors, and the neural network is trained on these simulations to emulate the posterior. The neural network is trained as a normalizing flow model for density estimation, allowing it to accurately represent complicated, high-dimensional distribution functions. With a fixed simulation budget, we compare a single-round procedure to a multi-round approach that guides the training simulations toward a specific target observation. Finally, we discuss the future possibilities for use of amortized models, which train on a wide range of simulations and enable fast statistical inference for results during experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

An analytic hybrid halo + perturbation theory model for small-scale correlators: baryons, halos, and galaxies

In this work, we update Halo Zeldovich Perturbation Theory (HZPT, [1]), an analytic model for the two-point statistics of dark matter, to describe halo and galaxy clustering, and galaxy-matter cross-correlation on nonlinear scales. The model correcting Zeldovich has an analytic Fourier transform, and therefore is valid in both configuration space and Fourier space. The model is accurate at the 2%-level or less for P_mm (k< 1 h/Mpc), P_hm (k< 1 h/Mpc), P_hh (k< 2 h/Mpc), P gm (k< 1 h/Mpc), P gg (k< 1 h/Mpc), ξ mm (r> 1 Mpc/h), ξ hm (r> 2 Mpc/h), ξ hh (r> 2 Mpc/h), ξ gm (r> 1 Mpc/h), ξ gg (r> 2 Mpc/h), for LRG-like mock galaxies. We show that the HZPT model for matter correlators can account for the effects of a wide range of baryonic feedback models and provide two extended dark matter models which are of 1% (3%) accuracy for k < 10 (8) h/Mpc. We explicitly model the non-perturbative features of halo exclusion for the halo-halo and galaxy-galaxy correlators, as well as the presence of satellites for galaxy-matter and galaxy-galaxy correlation functions. We perform density estimation using N-body simulations and a wide range of HOD galaxy mocks to obtain correlations of model parameters with the cosmological parameters Ω m and σ 8 . HZPT can provide a fast, interpretable, and analytic model for combined-probe analyses of redshift surveys using scales well into the non-linear regime.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the role of edge neutrals in exciting tearing mode activity and achieving flat temperature profiles in LTX-β

Abstract We present observations, numerical simulations, and analysis from experiments in the Lithium Tokamak Experiment-Beta (LTX- β ) in which the electron temperature profile ( T e ( r )) shifts from flat to peaked and a tearing mode is also destabilized when the average density ( n e ave ) exceeds ∼10 19 m −3 . Flat T e ( r ) is obtained routinely in LTX- β , with a lithium coated, low-recycling first wall, once the external fueling is stopped and density decays [Boyle et al 2023 Nucl. Fusion 63 056020]. In the present experiment, flat T e profiles can be sustained while maintaining constant n e ave below a line averaged density threshold ( n e ave th ) of ∼10 19 m −3 . Above n e ave th , T e ( r ) shifts from flat to peaked and a tearing mode is destabilized. Due to low recycling, the achieved n e ave can be controlled precisely by external fueling and hence, a certain threshold of the edge neutral inventory from the external fueling is experimentally manifested through n e ave th . The goal of the present work is to investigate the role of edge neutrals in determining T e ( r ) and MHD stability in the unique low-recycling regime of LTX- β . Our hypothesis is that the peaking of T e ( r ) beyond n e ave th is due ultimately to the edge cooling by the cold neutrals beyond a critical fueling flux. At lower fueling flux, flat T e ( r ) results in broader pressure profile and lower resistivity, which in turn stabilizes the tearing mode. This hypothesis is supported by edge neutral density estimation by DEGAS 2 code. Mode analysis by singular value decomposition confirms the tearing mode structure to be m / n = 2/1 ( m and n being the poloidal and toroidal mode numbers). Linear tearing stability analysis with M3D-C1 predicts that plasmas with n e ave > 10 19 are highly susceptible to a n = 1 tearing mode. ORBIT simulations, however, confirmed that the tearing modes do not contribute to the loss of fast ions from neutral beam injection. This study shows for the first time that the neutral inventory at the edge could be one of the deciding factors for the achievability of the unique operation regime of flat T e ( r ) and the excitation of tearing activity that could be disruptive for the plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

via machinae : Searching for stellar streams using unsupervised machine learning

ABSTRACT We develop a new machine learning algorithm, via machinae, to identify cold stellar streams in data from the Gaia telescope. via machinae is based on ANODE, a general method that uses conditional density estimation and sideband interpolation to detect local overdensities in the data in a model agnostic way. By applying ANODE to the positions, proper motions, and photometry of stars observed by Gaia, via machinae obtains a collection of those stars deemed most likely to belong to a stellar stream. We further apply an automated line-finding method based on the Hough transform to search for line-like features in patches of the sky. In this paper, we describe the via machinae algorithm in detail and demonstrate our approach on the prominent stream GD-1. Though some parts of the algorithm are tuned to increase sensitivity to cold streams, the via machinae technique itself does not rely on astrophysical assumptions, such as the potential of the Milky Way or stellar isochrones. This flexibility suggests that it may have further applications in identifying other anomalous structures within the Gaia data set, for example debris flow and globular clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measuring the thermal and ionization state of the low- z IGM using likelihood free inference

ABSTRACT We present a new approach to measure the power-law temperature density relationship $T=T_0 (\rho/ \bar{\rho })^{\gamma -1}$ and the UV background photoionization rate $\Gamma _{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$ of the intergalactic medium (IGM) based on the Voigt profile decomposition of the Ly α forest into a set of discrete absorption lines with Doppler parameter b and the neutral hydrogen column density $N_{\rm H\, {\small I}}$. Previous work demonstrated that the shape of the $b-N_{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$ distribution is sensitive to the IGM thermal parameters T0 and γ, whereas our new inference algorithm also takes into account the normalization of the distribution, i.e. the line-density dN/dz, and we demonstrate that precise constraints can also be obtained on $\Gamma _{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$. We use density-estimation likelihood-free inference (DELFI) to emulate the dependence of the $b-N_{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$ distribution on IGM parameters trained on an ensemble of 624 nyx hydrodynamical simulations at z = 0.1, which we combine with a Gaussian process emulator of the normalization. To demonstrate the efficacy of this approach, we generate hundreds of realizations of realistic mock HST/COS data sets, each comprising 34 quasar sightlines, and forward model the noise and resolution to match the real data. We use this large ensemble of mocks to extensively test our inference and empirically demonstrate that our posterior distributions are robust. Our analysis shows that by applying our new approach to existing Ly α forest spectra at z ≃ 0.1, one can measure the thermal and ionization state of the IGM with very high precision ($\sigma _{\log T_0} \sim 0.08$ dex, σγ ∼ 0.06, and $\sigma _{\log \Gamma _{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}} \sim 0.07$ dex).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based 𝑤CDM inference from weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps with deep learning: Analysis design

Data-driven approaches using deep learning are emerging as powerful techniques to extract non-Gaussian information from cosmological large-scale structure. Here, this work presents the first simulation-based inference (SBI) pipeline that combines weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps in a realistic Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) configuration and serves as preparation for a forthcoming analysis of the survey data. We develop a scalable forward model based on the CosmoGridV1 suite of N-body simulations to generate over one million self-consistent mock realizations of DES Y3 at the map level. Leveraging this large dataset, we train deep graph convolutional neural networks on the full survey footprint in spherical geometry to learn low-dimensional features that approximately maximize mutual information with target parameters. These learned compressions enable neural density estimation of the implicit likelihood via normalizing flows in a ten-dimensional parameter space spanning cosmological 𝑤CDM, intrinsic alignment, and linear galaxy bias parameters, while marginalizing over baryonic, photometric redshift, and shear bias nuisances. To ensure robustness, we extensively validate our inference pipeline using synthetic observations derived from both systematic contaminations in our forward model and independent Buzzard galaxy catalogs. Our forecasts yield significant improvements in cosmological parameter constraints, achieving 2−3× higher figures of merit in the 𝛺 𝑚 − 𝑆 8 plane relative to our implementation of baseline two-point statistics and effectively breaking parameter degeneracies through probe combination. These results demonstrate the potential of SBI analyses powered by deep learning for upcoming Stage-IV wide-field imaging surveys.

Thomsen, A. [Zurich, ETH] (ORCID:0000000203099021)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reionization effective likelihood from Planck 2018 data

We release relike (reionization effective likelihood), a fast and accurate effective likelihood code based on the latest Planck 2018 data that allows one to constrain any model for reionization between 6 < z < 30 using five constraints from the CMB reionization principal components (PC). We tested the code on two example models which showed excellent agreement with sampling the exact Planck likelihoods using either a simple Gaussian PC likelihood or its full kernel density estimate. This code enables a fast and consistent means for combining Planck constraints with other reionization data sets, such as kinetic Sunyaev-Zeldovich effects, line-intensity mapping, luminosity function, star formation history, quasar spectra, etc., where the redshift dependence of the ionization history is important. Since the PC technique tests any reionization history in the given range, we also derive model-independent constraints for the total Thomson optical depth τ PC = $0.0619$$^{+0.0056}_{–0.0068}$ and its 15 ≤ z ≤ 30 high redshift component τ PC (15,30) < 0.020 (95% C.L.). Furthermore, the upper limits on the high-redshift optical depth is a factor of ~3 larger than those reported in the Planck 2018 cosmological parameter paper using the FlexKnot method and we validate our results with a direct analysis of a two-step model which permits this small high-z component.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neural simulation-based inference approach for characterizing the Galactic Center γ-ray excess

The nature of the Fermi γ-ray Galactic Center Excess (GCE) has remained a persistent mystery for over a decade. Although the excess is broadly compatible with emission expected due to dark matter annihilation, an explanation in terms of a population of unresolved astrophysical point sources e.g., millisecond pulsars, remains viable. The effort to uncover the origin of the GCE is hampered in particular by an incomplete understanding of diffuse emission of Galactic origin. This can lead to spurious features that make it difficult to robustly differentiate smooth emission, as expected for a dark matter origin, from more “clumpy” emission expected from a population of relatively bright, unresolved point sources. Here, we use recent advancements in the field of simulation-based inference, in particular density estimation techniques using normalizing flows, in order to characterize the contribution of modeled components, including unresolved point source populations, to the GCE. Compared to traditional techniques based on the statistical distribution of photon counts, our machine learning-based method is able to utilize more of the information contained in a given model of the Galactic Center emission, and in particular can perform posterior parameter estimation while accounting for pixel-to-pixel spatial correlations in the γ-ray map. This makes the method demonstrably more resilient to certain forms of model misspecification. On application to Fermi data, the method generically attributes a smaller fraction of the GCE flux to unresolved point sources when compared to traditional approaches. We nevertheless infer such a contribution to make up a non-negligible fraction of the GCE across all analysis variations considered, with at least $38^{+9}_{-19}$% of the excess attributed to unresolved point sources in our baseline analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Combining resonant and tail-based anomaly detection

In many well-motivated models of the electroweak scale, cascade decays of new particles can result in highly boosted hadronic resonances (e.g., Z / W / h ). This can make these models rich and promising targets for recently developed resonant anomaly detection methods powered by modern machine learning. We demonstrate this using the state-of-the-art classifying anomalies through outer density estimation () method applied to supersymmetry scenarios with gluino pair production. We show that , despite being model agnostic, is nevertheless competitive with dedicated cut-based searches, while simultaneously covering a much wider region of parameter space. The gluino events also populate the tails of the missing energy and H T distributions, making this a novel combination of resonant and tail-based anomaly detection. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

𝑁-dimensional maximum-entropy tomography via particle sampling

We propose a modified maximum-entropy (MENT) algorithm for six-dimensional phase space tomography. The algorithm uses particle sampling and low-dimensional density estimation to approximate large sets of high-dimensional integrals in the original MENT formulation. We implement this approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques and demonstrate convergence of six-dimensional MENT on both synthetic and measured data.

Hoover, Austin [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Data-Driven Nonparametric Approach for Probabilistic Load-Margin Assessment Considering Wind Power Penetration

A modern power system is characterized by an increasing penetration of wind power, which results in large uncertainties in its states. These uncertainties must be quantified properly; otherwise, the system security may be threatened. Facing this challenge, here we propose a cost-effective, data-driven approach to assessing a power system's load margin probabilistically. Using actual wind data, a kernel density estimator is applied to infer the nonparametric wind speed distributions, which are further merged into the framework of a vine copula. The latter enables us to simulate complex multivariate and highly dependent model inputs with a variety of bivariate copulae that precisely represent the tail dependence in the correlated samples. Furthermore, to reduce the prohibitive computational time of traditional Monte-Carlo simulations that process a large amount of samples, we propose to use a nonparametric, Gaussian-process-emulator-based reduced-order model to replace the original complicated continuation power-flow model through a Bayesian-learning framework. To accelerate the convergence rate of this Bayesian algorithm, a truncated polynomial chaos surrogate, which serves as a highly efficient, parametric Bayesian prior, is developed. This emulator allows us to execute the time-consuming continuation power-flow solver at the sampled values with a negligible computational cost. Results of simulations that are performed on several test systems reveal the impressive performance of the proposed method in the probabilistic load-margin assessment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probing Quantum Telecloning on Superconducting Quantum Processors

Quantum information cannot be perfectly cloned, but approximate copies of quantum information can be generated. Quantum telecloning combines approximate quantum cloning, more typically referred to as quantum cloning, and quantum teleportation. Quantum telecloning allows approximate copies of quantum information to be constructed by separate parties, using the classical results of a Bell measurement made on a prepared quantum telecloning state. Quantum telecloning can be implemented as a circuit on quantum computers using a classical coprocessor to compute classical feedforward instructions using if statements based on the results of a midcircuit Bell measurement in real time. We present universal symmetric optimal 1 → M telecloning circuits and experimentally demonstrate these quantum telecloning circuits for M = 2 up to M = 10, natively executed with real-time classical control systems on IBM Quantum superconducting processors, known as dynamic circuits. We perform the cloning procedure on many different message states across the Bloch sphere, on seven IBM Quantum processors, optionally using the error suppression technique X–X sequence digital dynamical decoupling. Two circuit optimizations are utilized: one that removes ancilla qubits for M = 2,3 , and one that reduces the total number of gates in the circuit but still uses ancilla qubits. Parallel single-qubit tomography with maximum likelihood estimation density matrix reconstruction is used in order to compute the mixed-state density matrices of the clone qubits, and clone quality is measured using quantum fidelity. These results present one of the largest and most comprehensive noisy intermediate-scale quantum computer experimental analyses on (single qubit) quantum telecloning to date. The clone fidelity sharply decreases to 0.5 for M > 5 , but for M = 2 , we are able to achieve a mean clone fidelity of up to 0.79 using dynamical decoupling.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fiber Uncertainty Visualization for Bivariate Data With Parametric and Nonparametric Noise Models

Visualization and analysis of multivariate data and their uncertainty are top research challenges in data visualization. Constructing fiber surfaces is a popular technique for multivariate data visualization that generalizes the idea of level-set visualization for univariate data to multivariate data. Here, in this paper, we present a statistical framework to quantify positional probabilities of fibers extracted from uncertain bivariate fields. Specifically, we extend the state-of-the-art Gaussian models of uncertainty for bivariate data to other parametric distributions (e.g., uniform and Epanechnikov) and more general nonparametric probability distributions (e.g., histograms and kernel density estimation) and derive corresponding spatial probabilities of fibers. In our proposed framework, we leverage Green's theorem for closed-form computation of fiber probabilities when bivariate data are assumed to have independent parametric and nonparametric noise. Additionally, we present a nonparametric approach combined with numerical integration to study the positional probability of fibers when bivariate data are assumed to have correlated noise. For uncertainty analysis, we visualize the derived probability volumes for fibers via volume rendering and extracting level sets based on probability thresholds. We present the utility of our proposed techniques via experiments on synthetic and simulation datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influence of Equation-of-States on Supercritical CO2 Combustion Mixtures

Abstract Fossil fuel based direct-fired supercritical CO2 (sCO2) cycles are gaining the attention of industry, academia, and government due to their remarkable efficiency and carbon capture at high-source temperatures. Modeling plays an important role in the development of sCO2 combustors because experiments are very expensive at the designed operating conditions of these direct-fired cycles. Inaccurate density estimates are detrimental to the simulation output. Hence, this work focuses on comprehensive evaluation of the influence and applicability of various equation-of-states (EOS) which are being used in the supercritical combustion modeling literature. A state-of-the-art supercritical combustion modeling methodology is used to simulate counter-flow supercritical CO2 flames by using various equation-of-states. The results show that using the corresponding state principle to evaluate compressibility factor is not accurate. Also, van der Waal type EOSs predictions can be as accurate as complex Benedict–Webb–Rubin EOSs; hence van der Waal EOSs are more suitable to simulate sCO2 combustor simulations. Non-ideal effects are significant under the operating conditions considered in this work. The choice of EOS significantly influences the flame structure and heat release rate. Also, assuming the binary interaction parameter as zero is reasonable in sCO2 combustion simulations.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2025

Polynomial Chaos Surrogate Construction for Random Fields with Parametric Uncertainty

Engineering and applied science rely on computational experiments to rigorously study physical systems. The mathematical models used to probe these systems are highly complex, and sampling-intensive studies often require prohibitively many simulations for acceptable accuracy. Surrogate models provide a means of circumventing the high computational expense of sampling such complex models. In particular, polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been successfully used for uncertainty quantification studies of deterministic models where the dominant source of uncertainty is parametric. We discuss an extension to conventional PCE surrogate modeling to enable surrogate construction for stochastic computational models that have intrinsic noise in addition to parametric uncertainty. We develop a PCE surrogate on a joint space of intrinsic and parametric uncertainty, enabled by Rosenblatt transformations, which are evaluated via kernel density estimation of the associated conditional cumulative distributions. Furthermore, we extend the construction to random field data via the Karhunen–Loève expansion. We then take advantage of closed-form solutions for computing PCE Sobol indices to perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model which quantifies the intrinsic noise contribution to the overall model output variance. Additionally, the resulting joint PCE is generative in the sense that it allows generating random realizations at any input parameter setting that are statistically approximately equivalent to realizations from the underlying stochastic model. The method is demonstrated on a chemical catalysis example model and a synthetic example controlled by a parameter that enables a switch from unimodal to bimodal response distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Neural Network Approaches for Conditional Optimal Transport with Applications in Bayesian Inference

In this work, we present two neural network approaches that approximate the solutions of static and dynamic conditional optimal transport (COT) problems. Both approaches enable conditional sampling and conditional density estimation, which are core tasks in Bayesian inference—particularly in the simulation-based (“likelihood-free”) setting. Our methods represent the target conditional distribution as a transformation of a tractable reference distribution. Obtaining such a transformation, chosen here to be an approximation of the COT map, is computationally challenging even in moderate dimensions. To improve scalability, our numerical algorithms use neural networks to parameterize candidate maps and further exploit the structure of the COT problem. Our static approach approximates the map as the gradient of a partially input convex neural network. It uses a novel numerical implementation to increase computational efficiency compared to state-of-the-art alternatives. Our dynamic approach approximates the conditional optimal transport via the flow map of a regularized neural ODE; compared to the static approach, it is slower to train but offers more modeling choices and can lead to faster sampling. We demonstrate both algorithms numerically, comparing them with competing state-of-the-art approaches, using benchmark datasets and simulation-based Bayesian inverse problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Learning to Optimize Variational Quantum Circuits to Solve Combinatorial Problems

Quantum computing is a computational paradigm with the potential to outperform classical methods for a variety of problems. Proposed recently, the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) is considered as one of the leading candidates for demonstrating quantum advantage in the near term. QAOA is a variational hybrid quantum-classical algorithm for approximately solving combinatorial optimization problems. The quality of the solution obtained by QAOA for a given problem instance depends on the performance of the classical optimizer used to optimize the variational parameters. In this paper, we formulate the problem of finding optimal QAOA parameters as a learning task in which the knowledge gained from solving training instances can be leveraged to find high-quality solutions for unseen test instances. To this end, we develop two machine-learning-based approaches. Our first approach adopts a reinforcement learning (RL) framework to learn a policy network to optimize QAOA circuits. Our second approach adopts a kernel density estimation (KDE) technique to learn a generative model of optimal QAOA parameters. In both approaches, the training procedure is performed on small-sized problem instances that can be simulated on a classical computer; yet the learned RL policy and the generative model can be used to efficiently solve larger problems. Furthermore, extensive simulations using the IBM Qiskit Aer quantum circuit simulator demonstrate that our proposed RL- and KDE-based approaches reduce the optimality gap by factors up to 30.15 when compared with other commonly used off-the-shelf optimizers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Dark Machines Anomaly Score Challenge: Benchmark Data and Model Independent Event Classification for the Large Hadron Collider

We describe the outcome of a data challenge conducted as part of the Dark Machines (https://www.darkmachines.org) initiative and the Les Houches 2019 workshop on Physics at TeV colliders. The challenged aims to detect signals of new physics at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) using unsupervised machine learning algorithms. First, we propose how an anomaly score could be implemented to define model-independent signal regions in LHC searches. We define and describe a large benchmark dataset, consisting of >1 billion simulated LHC events corresponding to 10\, fb^{-1} 10 f b − 1 of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. We then review a wide range of anomaly detection and density estimation algorithms, developed in the context of the data challenge, and we measure their performance in a set of realistic analysis environments. We draw a number of useful conclusions that will aid the development of unsupervised new physics searches during the third run of the LHC, and provide our benchmark dataset for future studies at https://www.phenoMLdata.org. Code to reproduce the analysis is provided at https://github.com/bostdiek/DarkMachines-UnsupervisedChallenge.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗