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Results for “demand uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Solution Approach for Bilevel Demand Response Game at Distribution Level

In this paper, a bilevel electricity pricing and demand response game between a distribution system operator (DSO) and load aggregators (LAs) is considered, and a robust decision model is proposed for the DSO to deal with the uncertainties from the wholesale market prices and demand consumptions of LAs. With the max-min objective at the upper level, the robust bilevel model is converted into a single level model by the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions and prime-dual transformation. Several groups of experiments have been conducted based on different preferences on uncertainty gaps and peak load reductions to show its effectiveness. After-the-fact scenario analysis has indicated that the robust solution is more beneficial in reducing the risk of inaccurate predictions as compared to the risk neutral strategy.

Chen, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stastically determined experimental uncertainties in photon Doppler velocimetry (PDV) measurements

Shock-ramp experiments place high demands on the precision, accuracy, and temporal resolution of transformed velocimetry signals. To minimize uncertainty after total propagation of a shockramp experiment, ideally multiple PDV traces are used. However, each trace has some uncertainty that is a function of the PDV system and analysis of the velocimetry data. In order to determine a reasonable experimental estimate of minimum uncertainty, we calculate observed uncertainties in as-fielded PDV systems using multiple channels to sample the velocity on each shot. We also calculate the uncertainty’s sensitivity to choice of analysis methods.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems

Climate induced extreme weather events and weather variations will affect both the demand of energy and the resilience of energy supply systems. The specific potential impact of extreme events on energy systems has been difficult to quantify due to the unpredictability of future weather events. In this work, we develop a stochastic-robust optimization method to consider both low impact variations and extreme events. Applications of the method to 30 cities in Sweden, by considering 13 climate change scenarios, reveal that uncertainties in renewable energy potential and demand can lead to a significant performance gap (up to 34% for grid integration) brought by future climate variations and a drop in power supply reliability (up to 16%) due to extreme weather events. Finally, appropriate quantification of the climate change impacts will ensure robust operation of the energy systems and enable renewable energy penetration above 30% for a majority of the cities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Battery Control Using Stochastic Model Predictive Control

Stationary batteries in residential and commercial buildings are often used to smooth customer load profiles and to lower customer electricity bills. Controllers for these battery systems should account for customer energy consumption, rate structures, and high internal battery temperatures, which can lead to reduced performance over the battery lifetime. It is important to consider the uncertainty in forecasting energy consumption and temperature, especially for customers with highly variable and uncertain loads. We propose a novel battery controller using stochastic model predictive control that accounts for these uncertainties and can handle complex rate structures, including demand charges. We show that the controller performs better than standard model predictive control when there is significant uncertainty in the forecast. We also show improvements in the performance with more accurate forecasts and with a more aggressive control strategy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1994

Propagation of experimental uncertainties from the tunnel to the body coordinate system in 3-D LDV flow field studies

An analysis of experimental laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) data uncertainties that propagate from measurements in the tunnel coordinate system to results in the model system are provided. Calculations of uncertainties as functions of the variables that comprise the final result requires assessment of the contribution each variable makes. Such an analysis enables and necessitates the experimentalists to identify and address the contributing error sources in the experimental measurement system. This provides an opportunity to improve the quality of data derived from experimental systems. This is especially important in experiments where small changes in test conditions are expected to produce small, detectable changes in results. In addition, the need for high-quality experimental data for CFD method validation demands a thorough assessment of experimental uncertainty. Transforming from one Cartesian coordinate system to another by three sequential rotations, equations were developed to transform the variables initially obtained in the original coordinates into variables in the final coordinate system. Based on the transformation equations, propagation equations for errors in the experimentally-derived flow quantities were derived for a model at angle of attack. Experimental uncertainties were then propagated from the tunnel coordinate system into the model system.

Neuhart, Dan H.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model to inform the expansion of hydrogen distribution infrastructure

A growing hydrogen economy requires new hydrogen distribution infrastructure to link geographically distributed hubs of supply and demand. The Hydrogen Optimization with Deployment of Infrastructure (HOwDI) Model helps meet this requirement. The model is a spatially resolved optimization framework that determines location-specific hydrogen production and distribution infrastructure to cost-optimally meet a specified location-based demand. While these results are useful in understanding hydrogen infrastructure development, there is uncertainty in some costs that the model uses for inputs. Thus, the project team took the modeling effort a step further and developed a Monte Carlo methodology to help manage uncertainties. Seven scenarios were run using existing infrastructure and new demand in Texas exploring different policy and tax approaches. The inclusion of tax credits increased the percentage of runs that could deliver hydrogen at <$\$4$ /kg from 31% to 77% and decreased the average dispensed cost from $\$4.35$ /kg to $\$3.55$ /kg. However, even with tax credits there are still some runs where unabated SMR is deployed to meet new demand as the low-carbon production options are not competitive. Every scenario, except for the zero-carbon scenario (without tax credits), resulted in at least 20% of the runs meeting the $\$4$ /kg dispensed fuel cost target. This indicates that multiple pathways exist to deliver $\$4$ /kg hydrogen.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Practical Challenges in Real-Time Demand Response

We report on a real-time demand response experiment with 100 controllable devices. The experiment reveals several key challenges in the deployment of a real-time demand response program, including time delays, uncertainties, characterization errors, multiple timescales, and nonlinearity, which have been largely ignored in previous studies. To resolve these practical issues, we develop and implement a two-level multi-loop control structure integrating feed-forward proportional-integral controllers and optimization solvers in closed loops, which eliminates steady-state errors and improves the dynamical performance of the overall building response. Furthermore, the proposed methods are validated by Hardware-in-the-Loop (HiL) tests.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Models and Strategies for Optimal Demand Side Management in the Chemical Industries

Deregulation and the increase of renewable electricity generation from wind and solar photovoltaics have transformed the U.S. electricity market. Economic and environmental benefits notwithstanding, the presence of renewables has increased variability and uncertainty on the supply side of the grid. Managing demand, rather than generation – a strategy referred to as “demand response (DR)” – is an attractive approach for mitigating this imbalance. DR efforts aim to reduce electricity usage during peak demand times, lessening stress on the grid. Industrial users are particularly attractive entities for DR participation since they present large, localized loads that can provide significant relief on grid demand and –unlike other large loads, such as buildings – are minimally dependent on human needs and preferences. In this project, we accomplished three main objectives. (1) We developed data-driven low-order DR scheduling-relevant dynamic models of chemical processes. Concurrently, we studied the formulation and solution of the associated optimal DR production scheduling problems. (a) A prototype air separation unit (ASU) model was used to generate simulated operating data for initial modeling efforts, which enabled the later use of industrial data for data-driven modeling. (b) We utilized Hammerstein-Wiener (HW) and Finite Step Response (FSR) models to represent nonlinear plant dynamics. (c) The HW models were linearized using exact linearization so they could potentially be embedded in power system models, which are formulated as mixed integer linear programs (MILPs). (d) We solved DR optimization problems under uncertainty and found that even naïve predictions of electricity price and product demand led to significant cost savings benefits. (2) Our DR scheduling optimization problem formulations are amenable to real-time solution. (a) We utilized Lagrangian Relaxation (LR) to efficiently solve the optimization problem by decoupling subproblems linked by complicating constraints. (b) We have achieved computation times for the 3-day DR scheduling problem of an ASU as low as 1.88 minutes. (3) Our representations of the DR behavior of chemical process as grid-level batteries were embedded in power system models. (a) For a small-scale grid, we found that incorporating the dynamics of the chemical plant in the optimal power flow calculations resulted in better resource management leading to up to 15% and 46% cost reduction for the grid and chemical plant operations, respectively, during periods of power line congestion. We have published several works dedicated to modeling and solving DR optimization problems from the user side. These were published in top peer-reviewed journals and are summarized in this report. The most recent work (and papers in preparation) considers DR scheduling from the grid side. Future efforts will consider networked plants (e.g., air separation units operating on a common pipeline) for DR participation, which is expected to amplify the capabilities of industrial DR participants to perform load-shifting. Our consideration of uncertainty in DR has inspired future directions in this area as well: we plan to develop multistage methods to fully account for the effects of uncertainty in DR scheduling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Field testing and validation of a low-cost MPC for demand flexibility for grid-interactive K-12 schools

K-12 school buildings account for the highest energy consumption within the public sector. Implementing advanced HVAC controls in grid-interactive K-12 schools could bring substantial economic advantages and grid flexibility. Our previous study demonstrated that a low-cost model predictive control (MPC) solution, which coordinates multiple packaged units, can enable demand flexibility without major hardware upgrades. However, a significant gap remains between academic pilots and market-ready scalable solutions. This paper extends the previous single-site pilot to a multi-site demonstration involving three school campuses (95 total units) through a commercial technology transfer process. Addressing the challenge of verifying performance with sparse field data, we present a new statistical approach using Bayesian methods to estimate the MPC’s effect on peak demand. Unlike traditional methods, this approach robustly quantifies uncertainty in non-normal, limited datasets. The results confirm the solution’s replicability, achieving a 21.6–38.9% reduction in HVAC peak demand (10.8–22.1% at the site-level) with > 98% probability across diverse locations. Finally, we document critical barriers to scaling software-as-a-service (SaaS) solutions–such as API instability and diverse legacy systems–and offer practical strategies to accelerate the commercial adoption of grid-interactive efficient buildings.

Ham, Sang Woo↗
DOE OSTI2022

Online distributed price-based control of DR resources with competitive guarantees

Demand response (DR) of building HVAC load can provide crucial demand-side flexibility for the future smart grid. Compared to direct load control, price-based control can respect the customers’ autonomy and privacy. However, it is challenging for price-based control to attain provable performance guarantees under future uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a framework for a utility to perform price-based control of flexible building load within the utility’s service area, in order to attain competitive performance guarantees in terms of controlling the system peak demand under future uncertainty. By adopting a two-step approach, our online price-based control solution can attain a provable competitive ratio for all possible realizations within a given uncertainty set. Simulation experiments demonstrate that, with a robustification procedure, our solution can perform well not only for worst-case inputs, but also for average-case inputs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sparse Control Synthesis for Uncertain Responsive Loads With Stochastic Stability Guarantees

In this report, recent studies have demonstrated the potential of flexible loads in providing frequency response services, predominantly due to their availability and cost-effectiveness. However, uncertainty and variability in various weather-related and end-use behavioral factors often impact the reliability of demand-side control performance. This work addresses this problem with the design of a demand-side control to achieve frequency response under load uncertainties. Our approach involves modeling the load uncertainties via stochastic processes that appear as both multiplicative and additive in the power system dynamics. Recently developed mean square exponential stability (MSES) results for continuous-time linear stochastic systems are applied to pose the control synthesis problem which results in an LMI-based optimization problem. Additional costs and constraints are added to the LMI-based controller synthesis to ensure MSES, improve closed-loop transient performance, maximize tolerable uncertainties, and promote sparsity in the controller. Additionally, the fundamental limitations between the tolerable uncertainties and control efforts while ensuring MSES are discussed. Further, the control synthesis problem for the case of the full-state measurement is generalized to the case of partial-state measurements. The proposed control synthesis is illustrated on an IEEE 39 bus system with rigorous studies to demonstrate the role of sparsity, closed-loop transient performance, tolerable uncertainties, and control efforts while ensuring MSES and achieving frequency response.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate-Induced Tradeoffs in Planning and Operating Costs of a Regional Electricity System

Electricity grid planners design the system in order to supply electricity to end users reliably and affordably. Climate change threatens both objectives through potentially compounding supply- and demand-side climate-induced impacts. Uncertainty surrounds each of these future potential impacts. Given long planning horizons, system planners must weigh investment costs against operational costs under this uncertainty. Here, we developed a comprehensive and coherent integrated modeling framework combining physically-based models with cost-minimizing optimization models in the power system. We applied this modeling framework to analyze potential tradeoffs in planning and operating costs in the power grid due to climate change in the Southeast U.S. in 2050. We find that planning decisions that do not account for climate-induced impacts would result in a substantial increase in social costs associated with loss of load. These social costs are a result of under-investment in new capacity and capacity deratings of thermal generators when we included climate change impacts in the operation stage. Finally, these results highlight the importance of including climate change effects in the planning process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty-Informed Operation Coordination in a Water-Energy Nexus

The widespread deployment of smart heterogeneous technologies and the growing complexity in our modern society calls for effective coordination of the interdependent lifeline networks. In particular, operation coordination of electric power and water infrastructures is urgently needed as the water system is one of the most energy-intensive networks, an interruption in which may quickly evolve into a dramatic societal concern. This paper develops a novel analytic for uncertainty-aware day-ahead operation optimization of the interconnected power and water systems (PaWS). Joint probabilistic constraint (JPC) programming is employed to capture the uncertainties in wind resources and water demand forecasts. The proposed integrated stochastic model is presented as a non-linear non-convex optimization problem, where the non-linear hydraulic constraints in the water network are linearized using piece-wise linearization technique, and the non-convexity is efficiently tackled with a solution methodology to convert the proposed model with JPCs to a tractable mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation that can be quickly solved to optimality. Here, the suggested framework is applied to a 15-node commercial-scale water network jointly operated with a power transmission system using a modified IEEE 57-bus test system. The numerical results demonstrate the of the proposed stochastic framework, resulting in cost reduction (13% on average when compared to the traditional setting) and energy saving of the integrated model under different realizations of uncertain renewable energy sources (RESs) and water demand scenarios. Additionally, the scalability of the proposed model is tested on a modified IEEE 118-bus test system connected to five water networks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Analysis Framework for the Hospital Resource Supply Model for Covid-19

In March and April of 2020 there was widespread concern about availability of medical resources required to treat Covid-19 patients who become seriously ill. A simulation model of supply management was developed to aid understanding of how to best manage available supplies and channel new production. Forecasted demands for critical therapeutic resources have tremendous uncertainty, largely due to uncertainties about the number and timing of patient arrivals. It is therefore essential to evaluate any process for managing supplies in view of this uncertainty. To support such evaluations, we developed a modeling framework that would allow an integrated assessment in the context of uncertainty quantification. At the time of writing there has been no need to execute this framework because adaptations of the medical system have been able to respond effectively to the outbreak. This report documents the framework and its implemented components should need later arise for its application.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2002

Technology Development Activities for the Space Environment and Its Effects On Spacecraft

Reducing size and weight of spacecraft, along with demanding increased performance capabilities, introduces many uncertainties in the engineering design community on how emerging microelectronics will perform in space. The engineering design community is forever behind on obtaining and developing new tools and guidelines to mitigate the harmful effects of the space environment. Adding to this complexity is the push to use Commercial-off-the-Shelf (COTS) and shrinking microelectronics behind less shielding and the potential usage of unproven technologies such as large solar sail structures and nuclear electric propulsion. In order to drive down these uncertainties, various programs are working together to avoid duplication, save what resources are available in this technical area and possess a focused agenda to insert these new developments into future mission designs. This paper will describe the relationship between the Living With a Star: Space Environment Testbeds Project and NASA's Space Environments and Effects (SEE) Program and their technology development activities funded as a result from the recent SEE Program's NASA Research Announcement.

Kauffman, Billy↗
NASA NTRS2003

Overview of NASA's Space Environments and Effects (SEE) Program Technology Development Activities

Reducing size and weight of spacecraft, along with demanding increased performance capabilities, introduces many uncertainties in the engineering design community on how spacecraft and spacecraft systems will perform in space. The engineering design community is forever behind on obtaining and developing new tools and guidelines to mitigate the harmful effects of the space environment. Adding to this complexity is the push to use Commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) and shrinking microelectronics behind less shielding utilizing new materials. The potential usage of unproven technologies such as large solar sail structures and nuclear electric propulsion introduces new requirements to develop new engineering tools. In order to drive down these uncertainties, NASA s SEE Program provides resources for technology development to accommodate or mitigate these harmful environments on spacecraft. This paper will describe the current SEE Program's, currently funded activities and possible future developments.

Kauffman, Billy↗
NASA NTRS2003

Technology Development Activities for the Space Environment and its Effects on Spacecraft

Reducing size and weight of spacecraft, along with demanding increased performance capabilities, introduces many uncertainties in the engineering design community on how emerging microelectronics will perform in space. The engineering design community is forever behind on obtaining and developing new tools and guidelines to mitigate the harmful effects of the space environment. Adding to this complexity is the push to use Commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) and shrinking microelectronics behind less shielding and the potential usage of unproven technologies such as large solar sail structures and nuclear electric propulsion. In order to drive down these uncertainties, various programs are working together to avoid duplication, save what resources are available in this technical area and possess a focused agenda to insert these new developments into future mission designs. This paper will describe the relationship between the Living With a Star (LWS): Space Environment Testbeds (SET) Project and NASA's Space Environments and Effects (SEE) Program and their technology development activities funded as a result from the recent SEE Program's NASA Research Announcement.

Kauffman, Billy↗
NASA NTRS2003

Space Environments and Effects (SEE) Program: Spacecraft Charging Technology Development Activities

Reducing size and weight of spacecraft, along with demanding increased performance capabilities, introduces many uncertainties in the engineering design community on how materials and spacecraft systems will perform in space. The engineering design community is forever behind on obtaining and developing new tools and guidelines to mitigate the harmful effects of the space environment. Adding to this complexity is the continued push to use Commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) microelectronics, potential usage of unproven technologies such as large solar sail structures and nuclear electric propulsion. In order to drive down these uncertainties, various programs are working together to avoid duplication, save what resources are available in this technical area and possess a focused agenda to insert these new developments into future mission designs. This paper will introduce the SEE Program, briefly discuss past and currently sponsored spacecraft charging activities and possible future endeavors.

Kauffman, Billy↗