Deep Direct-Use Geothermal: Development of a Demand Side Model for the Hawthorne Nevada Area.
Abstract not provided.
Arguello, Ray↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “demand modeling”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Forecasting Distributed PV Adoption in Barranquilla, Colombia [Slides]
The objective of the dGen Colombia project is to provide projections to 2050 on distributed PV deployment by sector for a range of scenarios for Barranquilla, Colombia. NREL used the open-source Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen) adapted for international projects for this analysis. As part of this analysis, technical potential, economic potential, and adoption projections of rooftop and groundmount PV for the city of Barranquilla are presented. Five main scenarios and their combinations were modeled to provide insight on the impact of increased demand from electric vehicles, air conditioning, and time-of-use tariffs.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
BEAM CORE: A Flexible Ecosystem for Freight, Demographics, and Vehicle Analysis
The Behavior, Energy, Autonomy, and Mobility Comprehensive Regional Evaluator (BEAM CORE) is an open-source, modular ecosystem of highly refined, agent-based modeling tools developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the National Laboratory of the Rockies. Organizations such as metropolitan planning organizations, agencies, and companies can use BEAM CORE to analyze freight movement and optimize logistics solutions, assess the impacts of emerging freight technologies or e-commerce trends, model dynamic population growth and evolution, and understand the drivers and impacts of electric vehicle adoption across households in a given region. Users can choose from a flexible suite of modeling modules according to their needs and priorities. The modules integrate with travel demand models to support enhanced analysis of diverse scenarios involving freight movement, vehicle technologies, and other key factors relevant to regional planning.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
combinatorial optimization with demands (LDRD Final Report)
This report summarizes the research conducted and results obtained under the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project, “Combinatorial Optimization with Demands ,” from October 2010 to September 2012. Complex resource allocation problems are ubiquitous in mission-driven applications. We investigated resource allocation problems endowed with additional parameters called demands, which allow for richer modeling. Demand endowed resource allocation problems are considerably harder to solve than their traditional counterparts, and we developed a conceptually simple but powerful new framework called iterative packing which allowed us to address the added complexity of demands. By leveraging iterative packing , we designed approximation algorithms to solve a large class of hard resource allocation problems with demands. Approximation algorithms are efficient heuristics which also offer a performance guarantee on the worst case deviation from the cost of an optimal solution. Our algorithms offer better performance guarantees over previously known algorithms; moreover, we are able to show that our algorithms provide performance guarantees that are likely close to best possible.
Parekh, Ojas↗
TASKILLAN - A simulation to predict the validity of multiple resource models of aviation workload
The extent to which flight simulation models of increasing complexity are successful in predicting pilot performance was investigated using four models of increasing sophistication addressed by the TASKILLAN (for task skill analysis) computer-generated helicopter simulation. At the simplest level of complexity was the total task model (Model T), followed by the demand model (Model D), the undifferentiated capacity model (Model U), and, ultimately, by the multiple resources model (Model M), which is at the highest level of sophistication addressed by the TASKILLAN project. It was found that the correlations between variables were higher with the two more sophisticated models (U and M), which impose a penalty for increased difficulty in time-sharing. The performance prediction was best with the Model U, while the best predictors of subjective measures were models D and M.
Larish, Inge A.↗
Exploring the future energy-mobility nexus: The transportation energy & mobility pathway options (TEMPO) model
Not Available
Muratori, Matteo↗
The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) Model: Overview and Validation of V1.0 [Slides]
This presentation documents the approaches and methods used in the Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options™ (TEMPO) model to evaluate passenger and freight demand for transportation and mobility services, project vehicle ownership and technology adoption decisions, and determine transport mode choices to derive scenarios of future energy use and emissions. TEMPO is an all-inclusive transportation demand model that covers the entire United States, with an implicit spatial resolution and an hourly temporal resolution that allows for generating time-resolved energy use profiles to assess multisectoral integration aspects. Key features of the TEMPO model include the ability to perform endogenous out-of-sample forecasting to extrapolate recent emerging trends and analyze impacts of disruptive technological breakthroughs and behavioral changes. TEMPO employs an innovative representation of passenger mobility demand stemming from household-level decisions that determine vehicle adoption, ownership, and use based on sociodemographics (e.g., income, household composition), technology attributes (e.g., travel cost, time), geography (e.g., urban, suburban, rural) and population-specific multiday mobility and travel requirements. This representation enables a more forward-looking perspective on the use of new mobility options and the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, as well as a more accurate representation of their energy usage profiles than previous modeling approaches. A comparison with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook showcases the ability of TEMPO to accurately replicate widely accepted projections by representing the key elements of the entire transportation sector at the appropriate level of resolution. TEMPO is intended to generate future scenarios of technology adoption, energy use, and emissions in the transportation sector to compare alternatives, inform decision makers, and assess integration with energy infrastructure and supply systems at an appropriate spatiotemporal resolution.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Regional price targets appropriate for advanced coal extraction
A methodology is presented for predicting coal prices in regional markets for the target time frames 1985 and 2000 that could subsequently be used to guide the development of an advanced coal extraction system. The model constructed is a supply and demand model that focuses on underground mining since the advanced technology is expected to be developed for these reserves by the target years. Coal reserve data and the cost of operating a mine are used to obtain the minimum acceptable selling price that would induce the producer to bring the mine into production. Based on this information, market supply curves can be generated. Demand by region is calculated based on an EEA methodology that emphasizes demand by electric utilities and demand by industry. The demand and supply curves are then used to obtain the price targets. The results show a growth in the size of the markets for compliance and low sulphur coal regions. A significant rise in the real price of coal is not expected even by the year 2000. The model predicts heavy reliance on mines with thick seams, larger block size and deep overburden.
Terasawa, K. L.↗
Value of Demand Response: Quantities from Production Cost Modeling (Presentation)
Demand response (DR) resources present a potentially important source of grid flexibility particularly on future systems with high penetrations of variable wind and solar power generation. However, managed loads in grid models are limited by data availability and modeling complexity. This presentation focuses on the value of co-optimized DR resources to provide energy and ancillary services in a production cost model. There are significant variations in the availabilities of different types of DR resources, which affect both the operational savings as well as the revenue for each DR resource. The results presented include the system-wide avoided fuel and generator start-up costs as well as the composite revenue for each DR resource by energy and operating reserves. In addition, the revenue is characterized by the capacity, energy, and units of DR enabled.
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Examining Uncertainty in Demand Response Baseline Models and Variability in Automated Response to Dynamic Pricing
Controlling electric loads to deliver power system services presents a number of interesting challenges. For example, changes in electricity consumption of Commercial and Industrial (C&I) facilities are usually estimated using counterfactual baseline models, and model uncertainty makes it difficult to precisely quantify control responsiveness. Moreover, C&I facilities exhibit variability in their response. This paper seeks to understand baseline model error and demand-side variability in responses to open-loop control signals (i.e. dynamic prices). Using a regression-based baseline model, we define several Demand Response (DR) parameters, which characterize changes in electricity use on DR days, and then present a method for computing the error associated with DR parameter estimates. In addition to analyzing the magnitude of DR parameter error, we develop a metric to determine how much observed DR parameter variability is attributable to real event-to-event variability versus simply baseline model error. Using data from 38 C&I facilities that participated in an automated DR program in California, we find that DR parameter errors are large. For most facilities, observed DR parameter variability is likely explained by baseline model error, not real DR parameter variability; however, a number of facilities exhibit real DR parameter variability. In some cases, the aggregate population of C&I facilities exhibits real DR parameter variability, resulting in implications for the system operator with respect to both resource planning and system stability.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
USAID Colombia Young Leaders Workforce Training Program Action Plans: Forecasting Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption in Barranquilla, Colombia
As part of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)-National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Young Leaders Workforce Training Program in Colombia, the Association of Renewable Energies Colombia (SER) participants leveraged their training and professional experience to develop an action plan for modeling the projected adoption of distributed solar photovoltaics (PV) out to 2050 for the city of Barranquilla, Colombia. This case study provides an overview of the key activities and outcomes of the Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen™) Colombia project.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Integrating the Mobility Energy Productivity Metric Into the Delaware Department of Transportation Statewide Model
The Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric quantifies the quality of mobility at a given location and evaluates how changes in the transportation system impact mobility over time, such as through infrastructure investments. This study demonstrates the integration of the MEP metric into the Delaware Department of Transportation's (DelDOT's) transportation planning process by utilizing data from its statewide travel demand model. Specifically, the study assesses MEP for the 2020 baseline conditions and three alternative scenarios - 2030, Churchman, and Old Orchard - across multiple travel modes, including driving, walking, biking, and transit. The findings highlight that mobility and accessibility in Delaware are primarily supported by the driving mode, while transit services remain relatively limited, often ranking below biking and walking in many areas. In the 2030 scenario, where network operations and opportunities expand as projected, overall statewide accessibility declines, although Kent and Sussex counties experience improvements. The results from the Churchman and Old Orchard scenarios indicate that local network enhancements can positively influence accessibility, though primarily at a localized level, demonstrating MEP's capability to capture regional accessibility changes. Further, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory team successfully transferred MEP operational knowledge to the DelDOT team through dockerization, enabling DelDOT to independently run MEP for various scenarios of interest. Integrating MEP into DelDOT's planning framework supports future project evaluations and decision-making by incorporating access to opportunities as a key dimension of transportation system assessment.
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The Impact of Utility Tariff Evolution on Behind-the-Meter PV Adoption
This analysis uses a new method to link the NREL Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model with the NREL distributed generation market demand model (dGen) to explore the impact that the evolution of retail electricity tariffs can have on the adoption of distributed photovoltaics (DPV). The evolution most notably takes the form of decreased mid-day electricity costs, as low-cost PV reduces the marginal cost of electricity during those hours and the changes are subsequently communicated to electricity consumers through tariffs. We find that even under the low PV prices of the new SunShot targets the financial performance of DPV under evolved tariffs still motivates behind-the-meter adoption, despite significant reduction in the costs of electricity during afternoon periods driven by deployment of cheap utility-scale PV. The amount of DPV in 2050 in these low-cost futures ranged from 206 GW to 263 GW, a 13-fold and 16-fold increase over 2016 adoption levels respectively. From a utility planner's perspective, the representation of tariff evolution has noteworthy impacts on forecasted DPV adoption in scenarios with widespread time-of-use tariffs. Scenarios that projected adoption under a portfolio of time-of-use tariffs, but did not represent the evolution of those tariffs, predicted up to 36 percent more DPV in 2050, compared to scenarios that did not represent that evolution. Lastly, we find that a reduction in DPV deployment resulting from evolved tariffs had a negligible impact on the total generation from PV - both utility-scale and distributed - in the scenarios we examined. Any reduction in DPV generation was replaced with utility-scale PV generation, to arrive at the quantity that makes up the least-cost portfolio.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Projections of Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Adoption in NorthWestern Energy's Montana Service Territory Through 2050
NREL has used dGen (the Distributed Generation Market Demand Model) to project the adoption of behind-the-meter photovoltaics in NorthWestern Energy's Montana service territory through 2050.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Machine learning model to project the impact of COVID-19 on U.S. motor gasoline demand
Owing to the global lockdowns that resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic, fuel demand plummeted and the price of oil futures went negative in April 2020. Robust fuel demand projections are crucial to economic and energy planning and policy discussions. Here we incorporate pandemic projections and people's resulting travel and trip activities and fuel usage in a machine-learning-based model to project the US medium-term gasoline demand and study the impact of government intervention. We found that under the reference infection scenario, the US gasoline demand grows slowly after a quick rebound in May, and is unlikely to fully recover prior to October 2020. Under the reference and pessimistic scenario, continual lockdown (no reopening) could worsen the motor gasoline demand temporarily, but it helps the demand recover to a normal level quicker. Under the optimistic infection scenario, gasoline demand will recover close to the non-pandemic level by October 2020. The COVID 19 pandemic and consequent lockdown has had a substantial impact on mobility and therefore fuel demand and it is not clear when demand will recover. Ou et al. use a machine learning model that integrates health recovery scenarios to project the near-term future of gasoline demand.
COVID-19 pandemic↗
Demand-Side Grid Model (dsgrid) Data from the Electrification Futures Project (EFS)
This data set contains the full-resolution and state-level data described in the linked technical report (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71492.pdf). It can be accessed with the NREL-dsgrid-legacy-efs-api, available on GitHub at https://github.com/dsgrid/dsgrid-legacy-efs-api and through PyPI (pip install NREL-dsgrid-legacy-efs-api). The data format is HDF5. The API is written in Python. This initial dsgrid data set, whose description was originally published in 2018, covers electricity demand in the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the historical year of 2012. It is a proof-of-concept demonstrating the feasibility of reconciling bottom-up demand modeling results with top-down information about electricity demand to create a more detailed description than is possible with either type of data source on its own. The result is demand data that is more highly resolved along geographic, temporal, sectoral, and end-use dimensions as may be helpful for conducting electricity sector-wide "what-if" analysis of, e.g., energy efficiency, electrification, and/or demand flexibility. Although we conducted bottom-up versus top-down validation, the final residuals were significant, especially at higher geographic and temporal resolution. Please see the Executive Summary and/or Section 3 of the report to obtain an understanding of the data set limitations before deciding whether these data are suitable for any particular use case. New dsgrid datasets are under development. Please visit https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/dsgrid.html for the latest information which is also linked in the data resources.
analysis↗
Mobility Data and Models Informing Smart Cities
Using emerging data platforms, new mobility technologies, and travel demand models (TDMs), researchers, industry, and communities seek to improve the quality of transportation while maximizing the energy efficiency, equity, and safety of transportation services. As transportation may soon reach over 30% of U.S. energy consumption and with urban areas representing an increasing proportion of the U.S. population (>80% since 2010), a critical need exists to engage in urban data science-informed approaches to enhancing mobility. The objective of this study is to explore and document how aspiring Smart Cities are using data and models to inform mobility and energy initiatives within Smart City programs and in so doing identify gaps in knowledge and processes guiding Smart City mobility investment strategies, programs, projects, and pilots. A primary focus of the Smart Cities studied was the creation of an integrated data sharing environment approach. Most of these systems are being developed in parallel with multiple new data analysis tools, while regional metropolitan planning organizations continue to slowly evolve TDMs to take into account impacts of long-term strategies for emerging mobility technologies and services. Smart City initiatives in the United States have keen interests in leveraging knowledge and research on the mobility benefits and risks of automated, connected, efficient/electric, and shared on-demand mobility services; and understanding the related energy, environmental, economic, and societal impacts of these shifts. The results serve to identify key gaps in data, knowledge, and methods required to advance energy efficient urban mobility innovation, and to enable research and analysis collaboration between Smart Cities and the U.S. Department of Energy's efforts enabling new Systems and Modeling for Accelerated Research in Transportation (SMART) Mobility.
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Reanalysis of Water Withdrawal for Irrigation, Electric Power, and Public Supply Sectors in the Conterminous United States, 1950–2016
Accurately measuring water use by the economy is essential for developing reliable models of water resource availability. Indeed, these models rely on retrospective analyses that provide insights into shifting human population demands and adaptions to water shortages. However, accurate, methodologically consistent, empirically authentic, and spatiotemporally comprehensive historical datasets for water withdrawals are scarce. Herein, we present a reanalysis of annual resolution (1950–2016) historical data set on irrigation, electric power, and public supply water withdrawal within the conterminous United States (US) at the county-level, and, for power plants, at the site-level. To estimate electric power water use, we synthesized a historically comprehensive list of generators and historic patterns in generation across fuels, prime movers, and cooling technologies. Irrigation water use estimation required building a crop-demand model that utilized historical information on irrigated acreage for crops and golf courses, stage-specific crop water demand, and climate information. To estimate public water supply use, we developed a random forest model constructed from information on population, infrastructure, climate, and land cover. These estimates generally agree with total county and state water use information provided by the US Geological Survey (USGS) water use circular and estimates generated from independent studies for specific years. However, we also observed discrepancies between our estimates and USGS data that appear to be caused by inconsistencies in the methods used by the USGS's primary data sources at the state level over decades of data collection, highlighting the importance of reanalysis to yield spatiotemporally consistent and intercomparable estimates of water use.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗