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At least 109 records · Page 6

Implications of rootless geothermal models: Missing processes, parameter compensation, and imposter convection

Numerical models of geothermal systems commonly capture only the top of a reservoir. Deeper areas of the reservoir are simplified to a boundary at the base of the model domain. Commonly, the basal boundary is given either a heat source or a source of mass and enthalpy. Here we developed and present simple numerical experiments which demonstrate that these approaches do not produce the correct model behavior in comparison to a model that captures the entire convecting domain with a heat flux only. We describe a variety of incorrect types of model behavior that arise directly from the choice of boundary condition, independent of the specific parameterization of the model. Heat sources are sensitive to the thickness of the domain and parameters take unphysical values to compensate for the reduced height. The combined mass/heat boundary can produce temperatures that show similarities to circulating geothermal systems, but with incorrect fluid flow and a strong boundary layer focused at the base of the simulated clay cap. These errors likely cause parameters to adjust their values to compensate for the incorrect physics. We highlight these issues and show an example from a developed reservoir model. Initial calibrations to natural state temperature were unsuitable for history matching. The 3D model required parameter adjustments to achieve a more realistic production model. Appropriate mitigation measures should be considered to reduce parameter compensation and improve decision-support models.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Evaluation of 1/100-Scale Mooring Systems for Wave Energy Converters

This study evaluates the feasibility, accuracy, and limitations of using 1/100th scale physical mooring systems to represent full-scale mooring behavior for wave energy converters (WECs) during small-scale tank testing. The work focuses on an RM3-style point absorber deployed in conditions representative of the PacWave South test site and examines whether small-scale physical testing can reliably inform numerical modeling, design decisions, and future prototype development. Overall, this study concludes that small-scale (1/100th) physical mooring models can provide valuable qualitative insights, including relative comparisons between mooring types and trends in device behavior, but cannot reliably replicate full-scale mooring loads or dynamic response without significant scaling distortion. Physical tests at this scale are most appropriate for motion characterization and model validation within known limitations, not for deriving absolute mooring loads or final engineering design values. Key lessons learned emphasize the importance of improved instrumentation strategies, iterative wave tank tuning, more precisely manufactured scaled mooring components, and enhanced anchoring systems to reduce experimental uncertainty.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Probabilistic Evaluation of Geoscientific Hypotheses with Geophysical Data: Application to Electrical Resistivity Imaging of a Fractured Bedrock Zone

As climate changes and populations grow, groundwater sustainability is becoming increasingly important. Groundwater models, based on a conceptual understanding of the subsurface structure, are crucial tools for making sustainable management decisions. Conceptual models of the subsurface are based on knowledge of geological processes, and, frequently, observations from geophysical data. A frequent problem in groundwater model development occurs when multiple geological phenomena could explain a single subsurface observation. Uncertainty in geophysical data makes it even more difficult to discern which explanations are consistent with the geophysics. Here, we present a framework for testing geological when a geological feature is observed in geophysical data, but its physical characteristics are uncertain. The framework builds on Popper-Bayes methods developed in previous work, and is applied to study a fractured bedrock zone in a mountainous watershed in southwest Colorado. First, we outline six hypotheses based on the geological history of the watershed. Then, using the proposed Popper-Bayes approach, we demonstrate that three of the six hypotheses are inconsistent with measured electrical resistivity data, even after accounting for uncertainty. Finally, we discuss the importance of the prior model, and how this framework for handling geophysical uncertainty can be applied in other settings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A scalable transformer model for real-time decision making in neutron scattering experiments

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) neutron research facilities at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), including the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) and the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS), are a state-of-the-art neutron scattering facility that allows researchers to study the structure and dynamics of materials at the atomic scale. At the SNS, neutrons are measured using the time-of-flight (TOF) technique as they move through a neutron beamline to interact with a sample. Large volumes of neutron scattering data are collected and recorded in neutron event mode. Optimal productivity of the TOF instrument is limited due to the lack of real-time data analysis tools. The large amount of data generated by the experiments can be challenging to process and analyze in real time, particularly for experiments that require rapid feedback and adjustment of experimental parameters. The regular computer/workstation cannot keep up with the experiment speed to provide real-time feedback to adjust experimental parameters, so connecting the supercomputers available to the neutron facility is necessary to achieve real-time data analysis and experiment steering. To address this challenge, we exploit the Frontier supercomputer at Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) to train a scalable temporal fusion transformer model for real-time decision making of TOF neutron scattering experimentation. Here, in this paper, we present the results using Frontier to provide the processing power needed to rapidly process and analyze large volumes of single-crystal diffraction data collected at TOPAZ, a neutron time-of-flight Laue single-crystal diffractometer at the SNS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Coupled social and infrastructure approaches for enhancing solar energy adoption. Final Report

The goal of this project was to work with rural electric cooperatives to facilitate the diffusion of solar energy adoption in households located in the rural and semi-urban areas of Virginia by identifying social and behavioral factors that might be unique to rural regions; and develop a model to calculate the solar adoption propensity score for household based on their demographics, social and behavioral characteristics which would provide an objective metric to cooperatives that can be further used to do targeted marketing of rooftop solar panels. This was achieved through the following tasks: (1) Conducted a survey of the members of Virginia electric cooperatives to identify demographic, social, financial and behavioral attributes of individuals who are likely to adopt rooftop solar panels. (2) Developed a highly detailed, data-driven, agent-based model of the population of Virginia, focusing on the rural regions. (3) Developed diffusion models that use social, behavioral, and demographic factors, and peer effects to study their impact on solar adoption in rural areas. (4) Built a prototype tool based on the diffusion model to help study market segmentation in rural areas and made it available to National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA). (5) Results and recommendations derived from the model were provided to NRECA to be shared with participating cooperatives. (6) Results were published in peer reviewed journals, conference proceedings and book chapters, and ideas disseminated through presentations and newsletters. There were several important methodological contributions made under this project which are detailed in the published papers, including: (1) Built a decision-adjusted model for predicting adoptors with imbalanced training data; (2) designed seeding strategies to maximize adoption given a fixed budget; (3) built a methodology to compare different agent based models; (4) created models to identify important factors that influence decision to adopt solar panels; and (5) built a methodology for building household profiles of solar generation to study the duck curve phenomenon. The team included members from the University of Virginia (lead), National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA), Arizona State University, Virginia Tech and Sandia National Laboratory. Note that no individual entity or stakeholder has incentive to promote solar in rural regions. Most of the research and work focuses around urban regions where the potential for growth in solar adoption is higher due to higher population density. This puts rural areas at a disadvantage. By improving the diffusion of solar adoption in rural parts of the country, we can not only provide clean energy to rural areas but also promote job growth and improves energy independence.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Quantitative Insight to Fission Gas Pores Distribution in Irradiated Annular U-10Zr Metallic Fuel Using Machine Learning

Metallic fuels, particularly U-10Zr and its performance in reactor irradiation conditions, have been thoroughly investigated and are a promising candidate for next-generation sodium-cooled fast spectrum nuclear reactors. Irradiation in reactors can lead to the formation of fission gas and increased pore formation which can significantly impact fuel performance. Due to the large number of pores and various phases formed in metallic fuel during irradiation, a quantitative description of fission gas pores as a function of irradiation conditions is not yet available, undermining the fidelity of fuel performance modeling to support fuel qualification. It has been difficult to clearly detect pore boundaries and distinguish matrix phases from fission gas pores using optical microscopy by using simple threshold methods working with low magnification images. The pre-trained deep learning model for fission gas pore detection was applied to ~10,260 high magnification scanning electron microscopy images. The model increased the accuracy of fission gas pore segmentation to obtain statistical features, which cannot be processed manually. A pre-trained decision tree model was used to classify pores as isolated or connected pores, providing new insight into the correlation between the movement of lanthanides, solid fission products, and the radial temperature gradient developed in fuel irradiation conditions. This paper emphasizes the potential that artificial intelligence-based machine learning models have to accelerate qualification and support nuclear fuel development.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Real-space observation of ergodicity transitions in artificial spin ice

Abstract Ever since its introduction by Ludwig Boltzmann, the ergodic hypothesis became a cornerstone analytical concept of equilibrium thermodynamics and complex dynamic processes. Examples of its relevance range from modeling decision-making processes in brain science to economic predictions. In condensed matter physics, ergodicity remains a concept largely investigated via theoretical and computational models. Here, we demonstrate the direct real-space observation of ergodicity transitions in a vertex-frustrated artificial spin ice. Using synchrotron-based photoemission electron microscopy we record thermally-driven moment fluctuations as a function of temperature, allowing us to directly observe transitions between ergodicity-breaking dynamics to system freezing, standing in contrast to simple trends observed for the temperature-dependent vertex populations, all while the entropy features arise as a function of temperature. These results highlight how a geometrically frustrated system, with thermodynamics strictly adhering to local ice-rule constraints, runs back-and-forth through periods of ergodicity-breaking dynamics. Ergodicity breaking and the emergence of memory is important for emergent computation, particularly in physical reservoir computing. Our work serves as further evidence of how fundamental laws of thermodynamics can be experimentally explored via real-space imaging.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Predicting resistive wall mode stability in NSTX through balanced random forests and counterfactual explanations

Abstract Recent progress in the disruption event characterization and forecasting framework has shown that machine learning guided by physics theory can be easily implemented as a supporting tool for fast computations of ideal stability properties of spherical tokamak plasmas. In order to extend that idea, a customized random forest (RF) classifier that takes into account imbalances in the training data is hereby employed to predict resistive wall mode (RWM) stability for a set of high beta discharges from the NSTX spherical tokamak. More specifically, with this approach each tree in the forest is trained on samples that are balanced via a user-defined over/under-sampler. The proposed approach outperforms classical cost-sensitive methods for the problem at hand, in particular when used in conjunction with a random under-sampler, while also resulting in a threefold reduction in the training time. In order to further understand the model’s decisions, a diverse set of counterfactual explanations based on determinantal point processes (DPP) is generated and evaluated. Via the use of DPP, the underlying RF model infers that the presence of hypothetical magnetohydrodynamic activity would have prevented the RWM from concurrently going unstable, which is a counterfactual that is indeed expected by prior physics knowledge. Given that this result emerges from the data-driven RF classifier and the use of counterfactuals without hand-crafted embedding of prior physics intuition, it motivates the usage of counterfactuals to simulate real-time control by generating the β N levels that would have kept the RWM stable for a set of unstable discharges.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Sequential Decision Making (SDM) for Mesh Refinement and Model Selection in Multiscale, Multi-Physics Applications

Intelligent automation and decision support are needed to enhance computational efficiency and robustness in multiscale and multi-physics problems, including materials science, manufacturing, and climate and weather modeling. Current scientific computing approaches for enabling decisions by scientists fail to explore the role of learning, reasoning, and probabilistic planning. Often these decisions are not performed in real-time during the computation but are made prior to the start of the computation, which must be interrupted in order to make changes to the prior choices. Such interruptions at different stages of the computation increase the total computing time and the need for a human expert to frequently monitor the results. State of art scientific computing methods consist of rule-based algorithms that cannot automatically adapt to a dynamically changing computing environment. The development of a Sequential Decision Making (SDM) framework will automate scientific computing by optimizing the policies for mesh refinement, time-stepping, model and algorithm selection, resource allocation, and pre and post-processing. Our agent SDM framework for scientific computing will consist of data-driven learning (Classifier), automated reasoning (contextual knowledge), and probabilistic planning (Reinforcement Learning). In this project, we focused on three problems to demonstrate our SDM framework on a set of ordinary and partial differential equations. Classification of Lorenz system regions using Feed-Forward Neural Networks examined learning in the SDM framework. On the other hand, reasoning and planning in the SDM framework were used in two problems: adaptive time-stepping for nonlinear ODEs using on-policy RL algorithms, and adaptive mesh refinement for 2-D PDEs using off-policy RL algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multi-Game Modeling for Counter-Smuggling

International trade provides an avenue for terrorists to smuggle illicit materials into a target country. Policymakers need models and decision support tools that are both reliable and germane to inform their responses to this. Game theoretic approaches have been used in the analysis of counterterrorism strategies, but the models involved have often been small and abstracted. To address this need, we have developed a multi-game model to account for both security-related and economic aspects of counter-smuggling interdiction efforts. Additionally, we use different games to represent different types of interactions, and these games are then coupled to each other to form an integrated model. In this paper, we demonstrate the model's capabilities on a representative system of ports (both foreign and domestic), trade routes, and commodities. We specifically investigate the impacts of changes in screening policies at domestic ports, detection device capabilities, shipping subsidies, and worldwide corruption levels. In these studies, we find that economic factors play a large role in the interdiction task and provide correspondingly important tools for deterrence.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Automated classification of big X-ray diffraction data using deep learning models

Abstract In current in situ X-ray diffraction (XRD) techniques, data generation surpasses human analytical capabilities, potentially leading to the loss of insights. Automated techniques require human intervention, and lack the performance and adaptability required for material exploration. Given the critical need for high-throughput automated XRD pattern analysis, we present a generalized deep learning model to classify a diverse set of materials’ crystal systems and space groups. In our approach, we generate training data with a holistic representation of patterns that emerge from varying experimental conditions and crystal properties. We also employ an expedited learning technique to refine our model’s expertise to experimental conditions. In addition, we optimize model architecture to elicit classification based on Bragg’s Law and use evaluation data to interpret our model’s decision-making. We evaluate our models using experimental data, materials unseen in training, and altered cubic crystals, where we observe state-of-the-art performance and even greater advances in space group classification.

Chemistry↗

FECM/NETL Natural Gas with Hydrogen Pipeline Cost Model (2024): Description and User’s Manual

This is the user’s manual for The FECM/NETL Natural Gas with Hydrogen Pipeline Cost Model (NG-H2_P_COM) that estimates costs for transporting gaseous hydrogen with natural gas in a pipeline from a source, such as a hydrogen production facility, to a final destination which may be a user of the hydrogen and natural gas or a distribution center where hydrogen in the pipeline with natural gas is diverted to multiple end users. This user’s manual provides two main functions. First, the detailed statement describes the equations and algorithms that are used by the model to calculate technical quantities (such as blend hydrogen percentage, reuse percentage of the pipeline and stations, the pipe diameter size and length needed to transport a user-specified hydrogen with natural gas rate in a specified distance) and engineering-economic quantities (such as capital costs, operating costs, and cash flows). Second, the document is a user’s manual for the model that describes the procedures the user must follow to configure and setup the model, run the model, analyze the results, and visualize the outcomes. Such details offer user a quick and handy way to utilize the model for their application and decision making. The model can be accessed at this URL: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=cf3f6564-3c55-4aa5-b712-7160e558d9f6. The Model Results and Comparative Analysis can be accessed here: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=83862799-a28c-4944-a809-90b7e23d4af6.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Hybrid data-driven and model-informed online tool wear detection in milling machines

Precision machining tool wear is responsible for low product throughput and quality. Monitoring the tool wear online is vital to prevent degradation in machining quality. However, direct real-time tool wear measurement is not practical. This paper presents residual-based anomaly detection models, combining a hybrid model comprised of a physics-based model and a data-driven model (a decision tree or a neural network) to predict signals of interest (e.g., power or forces) under nominal conditions, followed by Page’s cumulative sum test for detecting tool wear on-line using the computer numerical control machine measurements. The most informative features are ranked using dynamic programming and its approximation variants from real-time measurements and machine settings, such as the width of cut, depth of cut, feed rate and spindle speed, that serve as inputs to the predictive models. The baseline nominal model is incrementally updated with experimental data via a gradient boosted adaptation model to generate the residuals that account for discrepancies between the actual machine data under normal conditions and the baseline nominal model predictions. The hybrid model is validated against 20 Mazak milling machine experimental tests and one Haas run-to-failure experiment. The proposed anomaly detector is applied to synthetic data from simulations of the physics-based model at different operating conditions, measurement noise levels, and tool wear levels, and the methods were able to achieve an overall 92% accuracy in data with 1% noise. The anomaly detection methods based on hybrid model reduced the false alarms of either the data-driven or physical-based models alone, and are found to be capable of good online detection of tool wear.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Managing Wildfire Risk and Promoting Equity through Optimal Configuration of Networked Microgrids

As climate change increases the risk of large-scale wildfires, wildfire ignitions from electric power lines are a growing concern. To mitigate the wildfire ignition risk, many electric utilities de-energize power lines to prevent electric faults and failures. These preemptive power shutoffs are effective in reducing ignitions, but they could result in wide-scale power outages. Advanced technology, such as networked microgrids, can help reduce the size of the resulting power outages; however, even microgrid technology might not be sufficient to supply power to everyone, thus forcing hard questions about how to prioritize the provision of power among customers. In this paper, we present an optimization problem that configures networked microgrids to manage wildfire risk while maximizing the power served to customers; however, rather than simply maximizing the amount of power served in kilowatts, our formulation also considers the ability of customers to cope with power outages, as measured by social vulnerability, and it discourages the disconnection of particularly vulnerable customer groups. To test our model, we leverage a synthetic but realistic distribution feeder, along with publicly available social vulnerability indices and satellite-based wildfire risk map data, to quantify the parameters in our optimal decision-making model. Our case study results demonstrate the benefits of networked microgrids in limiting load shed and promoting equity during scenarios with high wildfire risk.

distribution systems↗

Entropy removal of medical diagnostics

Shannon entropy is a core concept in machine learning and information theory, particularly in decision tree modeling. To date, no studies have extensively and quantitatively applied Shannon entropy in a systematic way to quantify the entropy of clinical situations using diagnostic variables (true and false positives and negatives, respectively). Decision tree representations of medical decision-making tools can be generated using diagnostic variables found in literature and entropy removal can be calculated for these tools. This concept of clinical entropy removal has significant potential for further use to bring forth healthcare innovation, such as quantifying the impact of clinical guidelines and value of care and applications to Emergency Medicine scenarios where diagnostic accuracy in a limited time window is paramount. This analysis was done for 623 diagnostic tools and provided unique insights into their utility. For studies that provided detailed data on medical decision-making algorithms, bootstrapped datasets were generated from source data to perform comprehensive machine learning analysis on these algorithms and their constituent steps, which revealed a novel and thorough evaluation of medical diagnostic algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Segmentation and Classification of Fission as Pores in Reactor Irradiated Annular U–10Zr Metallic Fuel Using Machine Learning Models

Metallic fuels, particularly U—10Zr, are promising candidates for next-generation sodium-cooled fast reactors. Irradiation of nuclear fuels in reactors can lead to the formation of solid and gas fission product which subsequently forms microstructural pores, deteriorating fuel performance. Due to the massive amount of pores and complex phases formed, a quantitative description of fission gas pores is not yet available, preventing the development of microstructure-informed fuel performance modeling for fuel qualification. This paper applied a pre-trained deep learning model to ~10,260 high magnification scanning electron microscopy images. This method increased the accuracy of fission gas pore segmentation and allows statistical features to be extracted which cannot be achieved manually. A pre-trained decision tree model worked on the segemenation results and further classified the pores into different categories to produce a correlation between the pores, movement of lanthanides, and temperature gradient during irradiation. Finally, this paper emphasizes the potentials of machine learning models to accelerate fuel research, development, and qualification for advanced reactors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Advancing Diagnostic Model Evaluation to Better Understand Water Shortage Mechanisms in Institutionally Complex River Basins

Abstract Water resources systems models enable valuable inferences on consequential system stressors by representing both the geophysical processes determining the movement of water and the human elements distributing it to its various competing uses. This study contributes a diagnostic evaluation framework that pairs exploratory modeling with global sensitivity analysis to enhance our ability to make inferences on water scarcity vulnerabilities in institutionally complex river basins. Diagnostic evaluation of models representing institutionally complex river basins with many stakeholders poses significant challenges. First, it needs to exploit a large and diverse suite of simulations to capture important human‐natural system interactions as well as institutionally aware behavioral mechanisms. Second, it needs to have performance metrics that are consequential and draw on decision‐relevant model outputs that adequately capture the multisector concerns that emerge from diverse basin stakeholders. We demonstrate the proposed model diagnostic framework by evaluating how potential interactions between changing hydrologic conditions and human demands influence the frequencies and durations of water shortages of varying magnitudes experienced by hundreds of users in a subbasin of the Colorado River. We show that the dominant factors shaping these effects vary both across users and, for an individual user, across percentiles of shortage magnitude. These differences hold even for users sharing diversion locations, demand levels or water right seniority. Our findings underline the importance of detailed institutional representation for such basins, as institutions strongly shape how dominant factors of stakeholder vulnerabilities propagate through the complex network of users.

Hadjimichael, Antonia↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Cosmological constraints from galaxy clustering and weak lensing

We present the first cosmology results from large-scale structure using the full 5000 deg 2 of imaging data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Data Release 1. We perform an analysis of large-scale structure combining three two-point correlation functions ( 3 × 2 pt ): (i) cosmic shear using 100 million source galaxies, (ii) galaxy clustering, and (iii) the cross-correlation of source galaxy shear with lens galaxy positions, galaxy–galaxy lensing. To achieve the cosmological precision enabled by these measurements has required updates to nearly every part of the analysis from DES Year 1, including the use of two independent galaxy clustering samples, modeling advances, and several novel improvements in the calibration of gravitational shear and photometric redshift inference. The analysis was performed under strict conditions to mitigate confirmation or observer bias; we describe specific changes made to the lens galaxy sample following unblinding of the results and tests of the robustness of our results to this decision. We model the data within the flat Λ CDM and w CDM cosmological models, marginalizing over 25 nuisance parameters. We find consistent cosmological results between the three two-point correlation functions; their combination yields clustering amplitude S 8 = 0.77 6 - 0.017 + 0.017 and matter density Ω m = 0.33 9 - 0.031 + 0.032 in Λ CDM , mean with 68% confidence limits; S 8 = 0.77 5 - 0.024 + 0.026 , Ω m = 0.35 2 - 0.041 + 0.035 , and dark energy equation-of-state parameter w = - 0.9 8 - 0.20 + 0.32 in w CDM . These constraints correspond to an improvement in signal-to-noise of the DES Year 3 3 × 2 pt data relative to DES Year 1 by a factor of 2.1, about 20% more than expected from the increase in observing area alone. This combination of DES data is consistent with the prediction of the model favored by the Planck 2018 cosmic microwave background (CMB) primary anisotropy data, which is quantified with a probability-to-exceed p = 0.13 –0.48. We find better agreement between DES 3 × 2 pt and Planck than in DES Y1, despite the significantly improved precision of both. When combining DES 3 × 2 pt data with available baryon acoustic oscillation, redshift-space distortion, and type Ia supernovae data, we find p = 0.34 . Combining all of these datasets with Planck CMB lensing yields joint parameter constraints of S 8 = 0.81 2 - 0.008 + 0.008 , Ω m = 0.30 6 - 0.005 + 0.004 , h = 0.68 0 - 0.003 + 0.004 , and ∑ m ν < 0.13 eV (95% C.L.) in Λ CDM ; S 8 = 0.81 2 - 0.008 + 0.008 , Ω m = 0.30 2 - 0.006 + 0.006 , h = 0.68 7 - 0.007 + 0.006 , and w = - 1.03 1 - 0.027 + 0.030 in w CDM .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗