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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1997

Initialization and Predictability of a Coupled ENSO Forecast Model

The skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model in predicting ENSO has recently been improved using a new initialization procedure in which initial conditions are obtained from the coupled model, nudged toward observations of wind stress. The previous procedure involved direct insertion of wind stress observations, ignoring model feedback from ocean to atmosphere. The success of the new scheme is attributed to its explicit consideration of ocean-atmosphere coupling and the associated reduction of "initialization shock" and random noise. The so-called spring predictability barrier is eliminated, suggesting that such a barrier is not intrinsic to the real climate system. Initial attempts to generalize the nudging procedure to include SST were not successful; possible explanations are offered. In all experiments forecast skill is found to be much higher for the 1980s than for the 1970s and 1990s, suggesting decadal variations in predictability.

Chen, Dake↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing Teleconnections-Induced Predictability of Regional Water Cycle on Seasonal to Decadal Timescales Using Machine Learning Approaches

Focal Area: (3) Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: Predictive understanding of the regional water cycle based on teleconnections of climate modes of variability using AI methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty in Simulating Twentieth Century West African Precipitation Trends: The Role of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions from North America and Europe have strong effects on the decadal variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). Anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing is model dependent, but the impact of such uncertainty on the simulation of long-term WAM variability is unknown. We use an ensemble of simulations with HadGEM3-GC3.1 that span the most recent estimates in simulated anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing. We show that uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing leads to significant uncertainty at simulating multi-decadal trends in West African precipitation. At the large scale, larger forcing leads to a larger decrease in the interhemispheric temperature gradients, in temperature over both the North Atlantic Ocean and northern Sahara. There are also differences in dynamic changes specific to the WAM (locations of the Saharan heat low and African Easterly Jet, of the strength of the West African westerly jet, and of African Easterly Wave activity). We also assess effects on monsoon precipitation characteristics and temperature. We show that larger aerosol forcing results in a decrease of the number of rainy days and of heavy and extreme precipitation events and warm spells. However, simulated changes in onset and demise dates do not appear to be sensitive to the magnitude of aerosol forcing. Our results demonstrate the importance of reducing the uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol forcing for understanding and predicting multi-decadal variability in the WAM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recent progress in low energy neutrino scattering physics and its implications for the standard and beyond the standard model physics

Neutrinos continue to provide a testing ground for the structure of the standard model of particle physics as well as hints towards the physics beyond the standard model. Neutrinos of energies spanning over several orders of magnitude, originating in many terrestrial and astrophysical processes, have been detected via various decay and interaction mechanisms. At MeV scales, there has been one elusive process, until a few years ago, known as coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering (CEvNS) that was theoretically predicted over five decades ago but was never observed experimentally. The recent experimental observation of the CEvNS process by the COHERENT collaboration at a stopped pion neutrino source has inspired physicists across many subfields. This has vital implications for nuclear physics, high-energy physics, astrophysics, and beyond. CEvNS, being a low-energy process, provides a natural window to study light, weakly-coupled, new physics in the neutrino sector. In this review, we intend to provide the current status of low energy neutrino scattering physics and its implications for the standard and beyond the standard model physics. We discuss the general formalism of calculating the tree-level CEvNS cross section and present estimated theoretical uncertainties on the CEvNS cross section stemming from different sources. We also discuss the inelastic scattering of tens of MeV neutrinos that have implications for supernova detection in future neutrino experiments. We discuss how the CEvNS experiments can be used as a testing ground for the Standard Model (SM) weak physics as well as in searching for the Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) physics signals. Any deviation from the SM predicted event rate either with a change in the total event rate or with a change in the shape of the recoil spectrum, could indicate new contributions to the interaction cross-section. The SM implications include the study of weak nuclear form factor and weak mixing angle. The BSM studies include non-standard interactions, neutrino electromagnetic properties, and sterile neutrino searches. In conclusion, stopped pion facilities are also a copious source of neutral and changed mesons that allow study of several dark sector physics scenarios such as vector portal models, leptophobic dark matter as well as axion-like particle searches.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing decadal variability of subseasonal forecasts of opportunity using explainable AI

Abstract Identifying predictable states of the climate system allows for enhanced prediction skill on the generally low-skill subseasonal timescale via forecasts with higher confidence and accuracy, known as forecasts of opportunity. This study takes a neural network approach to explore decadal variability of subseasonal predictability, particularly during forecasts of opportunity. Specifically, this work quantifies subseasonal prediction skill provided by the tropics within the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble and assesses how this skill evolves on decadal timescales. Utilizing the networks’ confidence and explainable artificial intelligence, physically meaningful sources of predictability associated with periods of enhanced skill are identified. Using these networks, we find that tropically-driven subseasonal predictability varies on decadal timescales during forecasts of opportunity. Further, we investigate the drivers of the low frequency modulation of the tropical-extratropical teleconnection and discuss the implications. Analysis is extended to ECMWF Reanalysis v5 data, revealing that the relationships learned within the CESM2-Large Ensemble holds in modern reanalysis data. These results indicate that the neural networks are capable of identifying predictable decadal states of the climate system within CESM2 that are useful for making confident, accurate subseasonal precipitation predictions in the real world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal decision trees for categorical data via integer programming

Decision trees have been a very popular class of predictive models for decades due to their interpretability and good performance on categorical features. However, they are not always robust and tend to overfit the data. Additionally, if allowed to grow large, they lose interpretability. In this paper, we present a mixed integer programming formulation to construct optimal decision trees of a prespecified size. We take the special structure of categorical features into account and allow combinatorial decisions (based on subsets of values of features) at each node. Our approach can also handle numerical features via thresholding. Here we show that very good accuracy can be achieved with small trees using moderately-sized training sets. The optimization problems we solve are tractable with modern solvers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nonstatistical Behavior of the Photoionization of Spin-Orbit Doublets

The photoionization branching ratios of spin-orbit doublets are studied both experimentally and theoretically at energies several keV above threshold. The results show significant relativistic effects for Ar 2p in the autoionizing region below the 1s threshold, and large many-body effects for Xe 3d and 4d in the vicinity of the L-shell thresholds. The branching ratios in Xe are also found to vary significantly over very broad multi-keV energy regions both above and below the inner-shell thresholds. In addition, the Ar 2p study confirms experimentally the decades-old theoretical prediction that the nonresonant branching ratio does not approach the statistical (nonrelativistic) value, and, in fact, progressively diverges from statistical with increasing photon energy.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Molecular beam epitaxy of PdO on MgO (001)

PdO, widely used in catalysis in powder form for decades, has been predicted recently to be a Dirac semimetal. Synthesis of high-quality single crystals of this material is thus of great interest. Here, by using ozone-assisted molecular beam epitaxy, PdO thin films were grown on a MgO (001) substrate. X-ray diffraction and transmission electron microscopy indicate the film is a / b axis oriented, with the c axis lying in plane. Fully oxygenated PdO films have a low density of holelike carriers, and are insulating at the lowest temperatures. Our density functional theory calculations using the Heyd-Scuseria-Ernzerhof exchange-correlation functional suggest a ~1.0 eV band gap at the M point, where the gap can be reduced by tensile strain along the c axis and the bands begin to invert when the tensile strain is as high as 18%. Although tensile strain of this magnitude is experimentally not viable using epitaxy, electrons can be doped by oxygen reduction. Finally, our results emphasize the need for careful consideration of electron correlation effects and stoichiometry in ab initio modeling of topological semimetals involving transition metal oxides.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forecasting [C II ] Line-intensity Mapping Measurements between the End of Reionization and the Epoch of Galaxy Assembly

We combine recent simulation work on the SFR–[C II ] correlation at high redshift with empirical modeling of the galaxy–halo connection (via UniverseMachine) to forecast [C ii] auto power spectra from z ~ 4 to z ~ 8. We compare these to sensitivities realistically expected from various instruments expected to come online in the next decade. If the predictions of our model are correct, [C II ] should be detectable up to z ~ 6 in this generation of surveys, but detecting [C II ] past the end of reionization will require a generational leap in line-intensity survey capabilities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1975

Computation of turbulent flows

Substantial advances made over the past decade in the prediction of turbulent flows are discussed. There was extensive work in the development of turbulence models, particularly for use in boundary layer calculations. Basic aspects of several important methods based on partial differential equations for the mean velocity field and turbulence quantities, including the relationship between the methods and suggestions for future development were reviewed. Work on three-dimensional time-dependent large eddy simulations is discussed. The emphasis is on the hydrodynamics of incompressible flows, but sources for consideration of heat transfer and compressibility are mentioned.

Reynolds, W. C.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Cloud-System Resolving Models: Status and Prospects

Cloud-system resolving models (CRM), which are based on the nonhydrostatic equations of motion and typically have a grid-spacing of about a kilometer, originated as cloud-process models in the 1970s. This paper reviews the status and prospects of CRMs across a wide range of issues, such as microphysics and precipitation; interaction between clouds and radiation; and the effects of boundary-layer and surface-processes on cloud systems. Since CRMs resolve organized convection, tropical waves and the large-scale circulation, there is the prospect for several advances in both basic knowledge of scale-interaction requisite to parameterizing mesoscale processes in climate models. In superparameterization, CRMs represent convection, explicitly replacing many of the assumptions necessary in contemporary parameterization. Global CRMs have been run on an experimental basis, giving prospect to a new generation of climate weather prediction in a decade, and climate models due course. CRMs play a major role in the retrieval of surface-rain and latent heating from satellite measurements. Finally, enormous wide dynamic ranges of CRM simulations present new challenges for model validation against observations.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2013

Achieving Climate Change Absolute Accuracy in Orbit

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission will provide a calibration laboratory in orbit for the purpose of accurately measuring and attributing climate change. CLARREO measurements establish new climate change benchmarks with high absolute radiometric accuracy and high statistical confidence across a wide range of essential climate variables. CLARREO's inherently high absolute accuracy will be verified and traceable on orbit to Système Internationale (SI) units. The benchmarks established by CLARREO will be critical for assessing changes in the Earth system and climate model predictive capabilities for decades into the future as society works to meet the challenge of optimizing strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change. The CLARREO benchmarks are derived from measurements of the Earth's thermal infrared spectrum (5-50 micron), the spectrum of solar radiation reflected by the Earth and its atmosphere (320-2300 nm), and radio occultation refractivity from which accurate temperature profiles are derived. The mission has the ability to provide new spectral fingerprints of climate change, as well as to provide the first orbiting radiometer with accuracy sufficient to serve as the reference transfer standard for other space sensors, in essence serving as a "NIST [National Institute of Standards and Technology] in orbit." CLARREO will greatly improve the accuracy and relevance of a wide range of space-borne instruments for decadal climate change. Finally, CLARREO has developed new metrics and methods for determining the accuracy requirements of climate observations for a wide range of climate variables and uncertainty sources. These methods should be useful for improving our understanding of observing requirements for most climate change observations.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The NASA Energy and Water Cycle Extreme (NEWSE) Integration Project

Skillful predictions of water and energy cycle extremes (flood and drought) are elusive. To better understand the mechanisms responsible for water and energy extremes, and to make decisive progress in predicting these extremes, the collaborative NASA Energy and Water cycle Extremes (NEWSE) Integration Project, is studying these extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) during 2006-2007, including their relationships with continental and global scale processes, and assessment of their predictability on multiple space and time scales. It is our hypothesis that an integrative analysis of observed extremes which reflects the current understanding of the role of SST and soil moisture variability influences on atmospheric heating and forcing of planetary waves, incorporating recently available global and regional hydro- meteorological datasets (i.e., precipitation, water vapor, clouds, etc.) in conjunction with advances in data assimilation, can lead to new insights into the factors that lead to persistent drought and flooding. We will show initial results of this project, whose goals are to provide an improved definition, attribution and prediction on sub-seasonal to interannual time scales, improved understanding of the mechanisms of decadal drought and its predictability, including the impacts of SST variability and deep soil moisture variability, and improved monitoring/attributions, with transition to applications; a bridging of the gap between hydrological forecasts and stakeholders (utilization of probabilistic forecasts, education, forecast interpretation for different sectors, assessment of uncertainties for different sectors, etc.).

House, P. R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Progress and Challenges in Subseasonal Prediction

While substantial advances have occurred over the last few decades in both weather and seasonal prediction, progress in improving predictions on subseasonal time scales (approximately 2 weeks to 2 months) has been slow. In this talk I will highlight some of the recent progress that has been made to improve forecasts on subseasonal time scales and outline the challenges that we face both from an observational and modeling perspective. The talk will be based primarily on the results and conclusions of a recent NASA-sponsored workshop that focused on the subseasonal prediction problem. One of the key conclusions of that workshop was that there is compelling evidence for predictability at forecast lead times substantially longer than two weeks, and that much of that predictability is currently untapped. Tropical diabatic heating and soil wetness were singled out as particularly important processes affecting predictability on these time scales. Predictability was also linked to various low-frequency atmospheric phenomena such as the annular modes in high latitudes (including their connections to the stratosphere), the Pacific/North American pattern, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. I will end the talk by summarizing the recommendations and plans that have been put forward for accelerating progress on the subseasonal prediction problem.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2002

Structural Life and Reliability Metrics: Benchmarking and Verification of Probabilistic Life Prediction Codes

Over the past two decades there has been considerable effort by NASA Glenn and others to develop probabilistic codes to predict with reasonable engineering certainty the life and reliability of critical components in rotating machinery and, more specifically, in the rotating sections of airbreathing and rocket engines. These codes have, to a very limited extent, been verified with relatively small bench rig type specimens under uniaxial loading. Because of the small and very narrow database the acceptance of these codes within the aerospace community has been limited. An alternate approach to generating statistically significant data under complex loading and environments simulating aircraft and rocket engine conditions is to obtain, catalog and statistically analyze actual field data. End users of the engines, such as commercial airlines and the military, record and store operational and maintenance information. This presentation describes a cooperative program between the NASA GRC, United Airlines, USAF Wright Laboratory, U.S. Army Research Laboratory and Australian Aeronautical & Maritime Research Laboratory to obtain and analyze these airline data for selected components such as blades, disks and combustors. These airline data will be used to benchmark and compare existing life prediction codes.

Litt, Jonathan S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A New Paradigm for Observing and Modeling of Air-Sea Interactions to Advance Earth System Prediction

The protection of people, property, and environmental resources from extreme weather, seasonal patterns, and climate change drives the need for predictions of weather, ocean, and climate patterns that have skill and value at timescales longer than traditional 1-10-day forecasts, including outlooks spanning weeks to decades. Advancing Earth System Prediction (ESP) skill at this range of timescales requires improved observations, understanding, and modeling of the processes in the ocean boundary layer, the atmospheric boundary layer, and their interface. A new way of referring to this coupled system is the Air-Sea Transition Zone (ASTZ). The report that follows is framed by the paradigm that the ASTZ is a single entity that regulates the flow of energy and matter between the ocean and the atmosphere. The ASTZ is thus the medium through which the ocean and atmosphere respond to and influence one another across their often disparate scales of variability. ASTZ modeling, observing, and understanding needs are particularly acute because very few measurements exist over oceans, and even fewer span the entire ASTZ, even though oceans cover 70% of Earth’s surface and are the source of most of the rain and snow that falls on both the land and the oceans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Overview of Wind Energy Production Prediction Bias, Losses, and Uncertainties

The financing of a wind farm directly relates to the preconstruction energy yield assessments which estimate the annual energy production for the farm. The accuracy and the precision of the preconstruction energy estimates can dictate the profitability of the wind project. Historically, the wind industry tended to overpredict the annual energy production of wind farms. Experts have been dedicated to eliminating such prediction errors in the past decade, and recently the industry is recording near-zero average energy prediction bias. Herein, we present an overview of the energy yield assessment errors across the global wind energy industry. We identify a long-term trend of reduction in the overprediction bias, whereas the uncertainty associated with the prediction error is prominent. We also summarize the recent advancements of the wind resource assessment process that justify the bias reduction, including the improvements in modeling and measurement techniques. Additionally, because the energy losses and uncertainties substantially influence the prediction error, we document and examine the estimated and observed loss and uncertainty values from the literature, according to the proposed framework in the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-15 wind resource assessment standard. From our findings, we highlight the opportunities for the industry to move forward, such as the validation and reduction of prediction uncertainty, and the prevention of energy losses caused by wake effect and environmental events. Overall, this study provides a summary on how the wind energy industry has been quantifying and reducing prediction errors, energy losses, and production uncertainties. Finally, for this work to be as reproducible as possible, we include all of the data used in the analysis in appendices to the manuscript.

literature review↗
NASA NTRS1990

Cometary compact H II regions are stellar-wind bow shocks

Comet-shaped H II regions, like G34.3 + 0.2, are easily explained as bow shocks created by wind-blowing massive stars moving supersonically through molecular clouds. The required velocities of the stars through dense clumps are less than about 10 km/s, comparable to the velocity dispersion of stars in OB associations. An analytic model of bow shocks matches the gross characteristics seen in the radio continuum and the velocity structure inferred from hydrogen recombination and molecular line observations. The champagne flow model cannot account for these structures. VLBI observations of masers associated with the shells of cometary compact H II regions should reveal tailward proper motions predominantly parallel to the shell, rather than perpendicular. It is predicted that over a decade baseline, high signal-to-noise VLA observations of this class of objects will show headward pattern motion in the direction of the symmetry axis, but not expansion. Finally, shock-generated and coronal infrared lines are also predicted.

Van Buren, Dave↗