Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “data predictive control”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1995

Trend analysis of in-situ spectral reflectance data from the Thermal Control Surfaces Experiment (TCSE)

The Thermal Control Surfaces Experiment (TCSE) on the LDEF was a comprehensive experiment that combined in-space measurements with extensive pre- and post-flight analyses of thermal control surfaces to determine the effects of exposure to the low earth orbit (LEO) space environment. The TCSE is the first space experiment to directly measure in-situ total hemispherical reflectance of thermal control surfaces in the same way they are routinely measured in the laboratory. In-space optical measurements performed by the TCSE provide the unique opportunity for trend analysis of the performance of materials in the space environment. Such trend analysis of flight data offers the potential to develop an empirical life time prediction model for several thermal control surfaces. For material research, trend analysis of the TCSE flight data, particularly the spectral data, can provide insight into the damage mechanisms of space exposure. Trend analysis for the TCSE samples has been limited to those materials that were not significantly eroded by the atomic oxygen (AO) environment. The performance of several materials on the LDEF mission was dominated by AO effects. Trend analysis was performed on both the detailed spectral reflectance measurements (in-space, pre-flight, and post-flight) and on the integrated solar absorptance. Results of this analysis for the five selected TCSE materials are presented along with the spectral flight data. Possible degradation and effects mechanisms will be discussed to better understand and predict the behavior of these materials in the LEO space environment.

Wilkes, Donald R.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prediction of non-intuitive metabolic targets with bayesian metabolic control analysis to improve 3-hydroxypropionic acid production in Aspergillus niger

Development of efficient bioconversion processes is limited by the ability to predictably improve metabolic flux. Here we deployed Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis as a platform to integrate multi-omics data with metabolic modeling and evaluated its ability to predict genetic interventions that improve metabolic flux. Global Metabolomics and proteomics data was collected from 17 Aspergillus niger strains engineered to produce the platform biochemical 3-hydroxypropionic acid from which seven actional genetic interventions were predicted from significant flux control coefficients. Of the suggested genetic interventions, two were present within the intuitively designed strains used for training (malonic semialdehyde dehydrogenase and pyruvate carboxylase) while five predicted targets were present within non-intuitive areas of the metabolic network including 5-formyltetrahydrofolate deformylase and four mitochondrial enzymes, alcohol dehydrogenase, succinyl-CoA ligase, aspartate aminotransferase, and malate dehydrogenase. Six of the targets were validated in the highest performing 3-HP strain used for multi-omics data generation which contained a prior disruption of the highest scoring target malonic semialdehyde dehydrogenase. Predicted directional perturbation of five of the six tested targets significantly improved titer and rate of 3-HP production and two significantly improved yield. The greatest improvements were observed following disruption of the non-intuitive target succinyl-CoA ligase which increased titer by 39% and yield by 29% (to 20.4 g/L 3-HP and 0.31 g 3-HP/g glucose) over the strains used for training. This study demonstrates the utility of Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis and highlights the ability to predict meaningful genetic targets in unexpected areas of metabolism to improve engineered strains for bioconversion.

3-hydroxypropionic acid↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Accurate representation of the turbulent exchange of carbon, water, and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for modelling global energy, water, and carbon cycles in both future climate projections and weather forecasts. Evaluation of models' ability to do this is performed in a wide range of simulation environments, often without explicit consideration of the degree of observational constraint or uncertainty and typically without quantification of benchmark performance expectations. We describe a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) that attempts to resolve these shortcomings, comparing the surface turbulent heat flux predictions of around 20 different land models provided with in situ meteorological forcing evaluated with measured surface fluxes using quality-controlled data from 170 eddy-covariance-based flux tower sites. Predictions from seven out-of-sample empirical models are used to quantify the information available to land models in their forcing data and so the potential for land model performance improvement. Sites with unusual behaviour, complicated processes, poor data quality, or uncommon flux magnitude are more difficult to predict for both mechanistic and empirical models, providing a means of fairer assessment of land model performance. When examining observational uncertainty, model performance does not appear to improve in low-turbulence periods or with energy-balance-corrected flux tower data, and indeed some results raise questions about whether the energy balance correction process itself is appropriate. In all cases the results are broadly consistent, with simple out-of-sample empirical models, including linear regression, comfortably outperforming mechanistic land models. In all but two cases, latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 are better predicted by land models than sensible heat flux, despite it seeming to have fewer physical controlling processes. Land models that are implemented in Earth system models also appear to perform notably better than stand-alone ecosystem (including demographic) models, at least in terms of the fluxes examined here. The approach we outline enables isolation of the locations and conditions under which model developers can know that a land model can improve, allowing information pathways and discrete parameterisations in models to be identified and targeted for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Predicting the Operational Acceptance of Airborne Flight Reroute Requests Using Data Mining

For tools that generate more efficient flight routes or reroute advisories, it is important to ensure compatibility of automation and autonomy decisions with human objectives so as to ensure acceptability by the human operators. In this paper, the authors developed a proof of concept predictor of operational acceptability for route changes during a flight. Such a capability could have applications in automation tools that identify more efficient routes around airspace impacted by weather or congestion and that better meet airline preferences. The predictor is based on applying data mining techniques, including logistic regression, a decision tree, a support vector machine, a random forest and Adaptive Boost, to historical flight plan amendment data reported during operations and field experiments. Cross validation was used for model development, while nested cross validation was used to validate the models. The model found to have the best performance in predicting air traffic controller acceptance or rejection of a route change, using the available data from Fort Worth Air Traffic Control Center and its adjacent Centers, was the random forest, with an F-score of 0.77. This result indicates that the operational acceptance of reroute requests does indeed have some level of predictability, and that, with suitable data, models can be trained to predict the operational acceptability of reroute requests. Such models may ultimately be used to inform route selection by decision support tools, contributing to the development of increasingly autonomous systems that are capable of routing aircraft with less human input than is currently the case.

Operational Acceptability↗
DOE OSTI2021

Validation of theory-based models for the control of plasma currents in W7-X divertor plasmas

A theory-based model for the control of plasma currents for steady-state operation in W7-X is proposed and intended for model-based plasma control. The conceptual outline implies the strength of physics-based models: it offer approaches applicable to future conditions of fusion devices or next-step machines. The application at extrapolated settings is related to the validity range of the theory model. Therefore, the predictive power of theory-based control models could be larger than for data-driven approaches and limitations can be predicted from the validity range for the prediction of bootstrap currents in W7-X. The model predicts the L/R response when density or heating power is changed. The model is based on neoclassical bootstrap current calculations and validated for different discharge conditions. While the model was found to be broadly applicable for conducted electron-cyclotron-heated discharges in W7-X, limits were found for cases when the polarization of the electron cyclotron heating was changed from X2 to O2-heating. The validity assessment attempts to quantify the potential of the derived model for model-based control in the operational space (density, heating power) of W7-X.

neoclassical modelling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing aircraft flows at airports using data driven predicted capabilities

A method for safe and efficient use of airport runway capacity includes receiving, at an air traffic control system at an airport, airport data related to movement areas of the airport, time data related to a time period, aircraft data related to a plurality of aircraft expected to operate into and out of the airport during the time period, and environmental data related to environmental conditions predicted for the airport during the time period. The method further includes computing a probability distribution for inter-aircraft spacing by applying the airport data, the time data, the aircraft data, and the environmental data to a trained Bayesian network, producing the probability distribution for the inter-aircraft spacing as an output observation of the trained Bayesian network, and, using the probability distribution and a confidence value, identifying an inter-aircraft spacing value for the plurality of aircraft expected to operate into and out of the airport during the time period.

Sweet, Douglas↗
NASA NTRS1957

Experimental Comparison of Speed : Fuel-flow and Speed-area Controls on a Turbojet Engine for Small Step Disturbances

Optimum proportional-plus-integral control settings for speed - fuel-flow control, determined by minimization of integral criteria, correlated well with analytically predicted optimum settings. Engine response data are given for a range of control settings around the optimum. An inherent nonlinearity in the speed-area loop necessitated the use of nonlinear controls. Response data for two such nonlinear control schemes are presented.

ENGINES, CONTROL - TURBOJET↗
DOE OSTI2024

Autonomous Anomaly Detection for MPC Forecasts of HVAC Systems in Residential Communities

The use of residential heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) to shift peak demand or provide ancillary services is a potential solution in the presence of older grids and distributed renewables. However, to ensure the efficient use of devices, utilities need to accurately forecast the load and adopt error correction schemes when necessary. While significant theoretical research exists in the area of predictive control of HVAC, little experimental evidence exists. The lack of experimental data in turn causes researchers to be unprepared for unsystematic errors which emerge due to the higher complexity of the data generating process. This study offers an anomaly detection methodology that uses unsupervised machine learning algorithms to detect and isolate these errors with different forecast error ranges. The results of anomaly detection procedure can then be used for error correction and would eventually help develop better predictive controllers. The methodology is tested using real world data from a smart neighborhood that currently operates in Atlanta. GA.

Lebakula, Viswadeep↗
NASA NTRS2011

End-of-Life Optical Property Predictions of White Conductive Thermal Control Coatings through Analysis of On-Orbit and Ground Based Testing Data

New system requirements pertaining to thermal optical properties and coating electrical properties are commonly specified on non-low earth orbit missions. An increasing number of projects are specifying coatings with a surface resistivity of less than lE-9 ohm/square to mitigate electrostatic charge buildup events over a range of operational temperatures. There are a limited number of coatings that. meet these electrical property requirements while having flight derived optical properties in representative environments. Goddard Space Flight Center Code 546, Contamination and Thermal Coatings Group has recently explored the variety of electrically conductive white coatings available through domestic vendors to evaluate properties to meet project requirements in a geostationary orbit. The lack of significant flight data in representative environments required the careful selection of samples in ground based tests to establish end of life thermal properties. Attention must be given to the origin and pedigree of samples used on past on-orbit experiments to insure that the present formulations for the materials are similar and will react in similar manner.

Hasegawa, Mark↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental investigation of advanced turbine control strategies and load-mitigation measures with a model-scale floating offshore wind turbine system

To advance the control co-design of offshore wind energy systems, the authors perform basin-scale experiments with a fully instrumented and actuated floating offshore wind turbine model. The model consists of a 1:70 scale performance-matched model of the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme 15-MW reference turbine atop the VolturnUS-S semisubmersible platform. The Reference OpenSource Controller provides real-time blade pitch and generator torque control. Here we aim to develop an open data set for the validation of numerical models in predicting the influence of turbine control and load-mitigation measures. For this purpose, we measure the effects of advanced turbine control features, including peak shaving and floating feedback as well as hull-based control using tuned mass dampers on the system. Overall, the results demonstrate measurable and consistent influences from the control and load-mitigation measures, thus confirming the usefulness as a validation data set. Peak shaving attenuates the response to wind turbulence at near-rated wind speed. Floating feedback reduces the load and platform pitch motion associated with the negative damping induced by blade pitch control. The tuned mass dampers also attenuate the system response near the targeted frequencies under suitable conditions. We also identify detrimental side effects of each load-mitigation measure.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Challenging problems of quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) of meteorological time series data

Abstract Representativeness and quality of collected meteorological data impact accuracy and precision of climate, hydrological, and biogeochemical analyses and predictions. We developed a comprehensive Quality Assurance (QA) and Quality Control (QC) statistical framework, consisting of three major phases: Phase I—Preliminary data exploration, i.e., processing of raw datasets, with the challenging problems of time formatting and combining datasets of different lengths and different time intervals; Phase II—QA of the datasets, including detecting and flagging of duplicates, outliers, and extreme data; and Phase III—the development of time series of a desired frequency, imputation of missing values, visualization and a final statistical summary. The paper includes two use cases based on the time series data collected at the Billy Barr meteorological station (East River Watershed, Colorado), and the Barro Colorado Island (BCI, Panama) meteorological station. The developed statistical framework is suitable for both real-time and post-data-collection QA/QC analysis of meteorological datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Monitoring Interannual Variation in Global Crop Yield Using Long-Term AVHRR and MODIS Observations

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data have been extensively applied for crop yield prediction because of their daily temporal resolution and a global coverage. This study investigated global crop yield using daily two band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) derived from AVHRR (1981-1999) and MODIS (2000-2013) observations at a spatial resolution of 0.05deg (approx.5 km). Specifically, EVI2 temporal trajectory of crop growth was simulated using a hybrid piecewise logistic model (HPLM) for individual pixels, which was used to detect crop phenological metrics. The derived crop phenology was then applied to calculate crop greenness defined as EVI2 amplitude and EVI2 integration during annual crop growing seasons, which was further aggregated for croplands in each country, respectively. The interannual variations in EVI2 amplitude and EVI2 integration were combined to correlate to the variation in cereal yield from 1982-2012 for individual countries using a stepwise regression model, respectively. The results show that the confidence level of the established regression models was higher than 90% (P value < 0.1) in most countries in the northern hemisphere although it was relatively poor in the southern hemisphere (mainly in Africa). The error in the yield predication was relatively smaller in America, Europe and East Asia than that in Africa. In the 10 countries with largest cereal production across the world, the prediction error was less than 9% during past three decades. This suggests that crop phenology-controlled greenness from coarse resolution satellite data has the capability of predicting national crop yield across the world, which could provide timely and reliable crop information for global agricultural trade and policymakers.

Crop phenology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Facility Operations by Applying Machine Learning to the Army Reserve Enterprise Building Control System (Final Report)

Thousands of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) buildings have building automation systems (BASs) and/or advanced meters. Although these systems have a wealth of data, performance optimization requires time and expertise to review and act on that information. Machine learning (ML) can provide automated and actionable insights to controls operators. This demonstration implemented proven ML methods on the Army Reserve Enterprise Building Control System. ML refers to algorithms that “learn” from data and improve their performance on a given task over time. In the buildings domain these tasks range from predicting future energy consumption, to identifying operational issues before faults occur, to optimizing control decisions. To learn, ML requires input data, which – for buildings – typically consists of instrument data such as energy consumption data and subsystem controls information such as set-point temperatures, and context data consisting of information such as the physical location of the building, the area of the building, and the weather. ML models use the relationships learned from the input data to make predictions with new, previously unseen, data. The team was able to investigate and successfully implement the following ML use cases: labeling consumption data as anomalous or non-anomalous; baseline whole-building load prediction (unknown fault status); fault detection (validation not possible); and site prioritization for energy-related projects. Due to the constraints of the project, interventions were not able to be implemented during the demonstration; therefore, assessments of operational cost savings and maintenance avoided could not be performed. The project has been presented at two leading national building conferences and two additional publications to peer-reviewed journals are currently in preparation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1975

F-8 digital fly-by-wire flight test results viewed from an active controls perspective

The results of the NASA F-8 digital fly-by-wire flight test program are presented, along with the implications for active controls applications. The closed loop performance of the digital control system agreed well with the sampled-data system design predictions. The digital fly-by-wire mechanization also met pilot flying qualities requirements. The advantages of mechanizing the control laws in software became apparent during the flight program and were realized without sacrificing overall system reliability. This required strict software management. The F-8 flight test results are shown to be encouraging in light of the requirements that must be met by control systems for flight-critical active controls applications.

Zalai, K. J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Comparison of noise prediction for the X-wing system and a conventional rotor in hover

Analytic predictions of X-wing rotor noise levels in hover without circulation control are presented and compared with measured data at two observer locations. Agreement of predictions and data is best in the rotor plane, due to the dominance of thickness noise terms. Predictions are made for the X-wing and a conventional type rotor system and are compared at two locations at the same tip speed and at each rotor's design tip speed. The acoustic signal of the X-wing is more heavily influenced by thickness noise terms than the conventional rotor. The comparison of each rotor's noise levels depends on the observer location and the amount of circulation control blowing employed.

Martin, R. M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Analysis of ANN and LSTM Prediction Accuracy and Cooling Energy Savings through AHU-DAT Control in an Office Building

This paper proposes the optimal algorithm for controlling the HVAC system in the target building. Previous studies have analyzed pre-selected algorithms without considering the unique data characteristics of the target building, such as location, climate conditions, and HVAC system type. To address this, we compare the accuracy of cooling load prediction using ANN and LSTM algorithms, widely used in building energy research, to determine the optimal algorithm for HVAC control in the target building. We develop a simulation model calibrated with actual data to ensure data reliability and compare the energy consumption of the existing HVAC control method and the two algorithms-based methods. Results show that the ANN algorithm, with a CV(RMSE) of 12.7%, has a higher prediction accuracy than the LSTM algorithm, CV(RMSE) of 17.3%, making it a more suitable algorithm for HVAC control. Furthermore, implementing the ANN-based approach results in a 3.2% cooling energy reduction from the optimal control of Air Handling Unit (AHU) Discharge Air Temperature (DAT) compared to the fixed DAT at 12.8 °C in a representative day. This study demonstrates that ML-based HVAC system control can effectively reduce cooling energy consumption in HVAC systems, providing an effective strategy for energy conservation and improved HVAC system efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory Building 59 (Raw)

The building management system in Building 59 is monitoring and archiving building-level electricity usage, HVAC and lighting system states (e.g., setpoint, temperature, flow rate, pressure), indoor environmental conditions (air temperature, relative humidity, CO2), on-site weather (air temperature, relative humidity), and especially occupant counts as well as other metrics such as Wi-Fi signal. This dataset could support multiple use cases, such as model predictive control and occupant related demand management. Raw data.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1991

Micromechanics analysis of space simulated thermal stresses in composites. I - Theory and unidirectional laminates. II - Multidirectional laminates and failure predictions

A micromechanics analysis is used to study the effects of constituent properties on thermally induced stresses in continuous fiber reinforced composites. A finite element formulation is described, and results are presented for unidirectional carbon/epoxy laminates. It is shown that significant stresses develop in composites exposed to thermal excursions typical of spacecraft operating environments and that the fiber thermoelastic properties have a minimal effect on the magnitude of these stresses. The finite element micromechanics analysis is then extended to the study of multidirectional laminates using a simple global/local formulation. Damage initiation predictions are compared with experimental data, and factors controlling the initiation of damage are identified. Ways of improving the durability of composites are discussed.

Bowles, David E.↗