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At least 109 records · Page 6

Significant Findings: Tracking the SeaWiFS Record with a Coupled Physical/Biogeochemical/Radiative Model of the Global Oceans

The Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) has observed 2.5 years of routine global chlorophyll observations from space. The mission was launched into a record El Nino event, which eventually gave way to one of the most intensive and longest-lasting La Nina events ever recorded. The SeaWiFS chlorophyll record captured the response of ocean phytoplankton to these significant events in the tropical Indo-Pacific basins, but also indicated significant interannual variability unrelated to the El Nino/La Nina events. This included large variability in the North Atlantic and Pacific basins, in the North Central and equatorial Atlantic, and milder patterns in the North Central Pacific. This SeaWiFS record was tracked with a coupled physical/biogeochemical/radiative model of the global oceans using near-real-time forcing data such as wind stresses, sea surface temperatures, and sea ice. This provided an opportunity to offer physically and biogeochemically meaningful explanations of the variability observed in the SeaWiFS data set, since the causal mechanisms and interrelationships of the model are completely understood. The coupled model was able to represent the seasonal distributions of chlorophyll during the SeaWiFS era, and was capable of differentiating among the widely different processes and dynamics occurring in the global oceans. The model was also reasonably successful in representing the interannual signal, especially when it was large, such as, the El Nino and La Nina events in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. The model provided different phytoplankton group responses for the different events in these regions: diatoms were predominant in the tropical Pacific during the La Nina but other groups were predominant during El Nino. The opposite condition occurred in the tropical Indian Ocean. Both situations were due to the different responses of the basins to El Nino. The interannual variability in the North Atlantic, which was exhibited in SeaWiFS data as a decline in the spring/summer bloom in 1999 relative to 1998, resulted in the model from a more slowly shoaling mixed layer, allowing herbivore populations to keep pace with increasing phytoplankton populations. However, several aspects of the interannual cycle were not well-represented by the model. Explanations ranged from inherent model deficiencies, to monthly averaging of forcing fields, to biases in SeaWiFS atmospheric correction procedures.

Watson, Gregg W.↗

Coupled machine learning–ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N 2 O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high-emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N 2 O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on ~12,000 N 2 O chamber measurements at 17 US Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N 2 O at both training (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha −1 d −1 ) and held-out testing sites (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha −1 d −1 ). Analyses identified six dominant N 2 O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH 4 + , NO 3 - , water-filled pore space, temperature, and aboveground biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N 2 O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N 2 O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.

AI↗

Development of the GEOS-MIT gcm Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Coupled Data Assimilation

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MIT-GCM (General Circulation Model)) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies. Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (approximately 1/8 degrees) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a latitude-longitude-cap-1080 (approximately 1/12 degrees) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗

A thermosphere/ionosphere general circulation model with coupled electrodynamics

A new simulation model of upper atmospheric dynamics is presented that includes self-consistent electrodynamic interactions between the thermosphere and ionosphere. This model calculates the dynamo effects of thermospheric winds, and uses the resultant electric fields and currents in calculating the neutral and plasma dynamics. A realistic geomagnetic field geometry is used. Sample simulations for solar maximum equinox conditions illustrate two previously predicted effects of the feedback. Near the magnetic equator, the afternoon uplift of the ionosphere by an eastward electric field reduces ion drag on the neutral wind, so that relatively strong eastward winds can occur in the evening. In addition, a vertical electric field is generated by the low-latitude wind, which produces east-west plasma drifts in the same direction as the wind, further reducing the ion drag and resulting in stronger zonal winds.

Richmond, A. D.↗

The Development of the New GEOS-MITgcm Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Coupled Data Assimilation System

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MITgcm) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies.Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (~ 1/8 deg) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a lat-lon-cap-1080 (~ 1/12 deg) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗

The Development of the New GEOS-MITgcm Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Coupled Data Assimilation System

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MITgcm) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies.Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (~ 1/8°) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a lat-lon-cap-1080 (~ 1/12°) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗

Effects of Increasing the Category Resolution of the Sea Ice Thickness Distribution in a Coupled Climate Model on Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Mean State

Many modern sea ice models used in global climate models represent the subgrid-scale heterogeneity in sea ice thickness with an ice thickness distribution (ITD), which improves model realism by representing the significant impact of the high spatial heterogeneity of sea ice thickness on thermodynamic and dynamic processes. Most models default to five thickness categories. However, little has been done to explore the effects of the resolution of this distribution (number of categories) on sea-ice feedbacks in a coupled model framework and resulting representation of the sea ice mean state. Here, we explore this using sensitivity experiments in CESM2 with the standard 5 ice thickness categories and 15 ice thickness categories. Increasing the resolution of the ITD in a run with preindustrial climate forcing results in substantially thicker Arctic sea ice year-round. Analyses show that this is a result of the ITD influence on ice strength. With 15 ITD categories, weaker ice occurs for the same average thickness, resulting in a higher fraction of ridged sea ice. In contrast, the higher resolution of thin ice categories results in enhanced heat conduction and bottom growth and leads to only somewhat increased winter Antarctic sea ice volume. The spatial resolution of the ICESat-2 satellite mission provides a new opportunity to compare model outputs with observations of seasonal evolution of the ITD in the Arctic (ICESat-2; 2018–2021). Comparisons highlight significant differences from the ITD modeled with both runs over this period, likely pointing to underlying issues contributing to the representation of average thickness.

Madison M. Smith↗

The Impact of Winds on AMOC in a Fully-Coupled Climate Model

Here we investigate the role of the atmospheric circulation in AMOC by comparing a fully-coupled large ensemble, a forced-ocean simulation, and new experiments using a fully-coupled global climate model where winds above the boundary layer are nudged towards reanalysis. When winds are nudged north of 45°N, agreement with RAPID array observations of AMOC at 26.5°N improves across several metrics. The phasing of interannual variability is well-captured due to the response of the local Ekman component in both wind-nudging and forced-ocean simulations, however the variance remains underestimated. The mean AMOC strength is substantially reduced relative to the fully-coupled model large ensemble, which is biased high, due to the impact of winds on surface buoyancy fluxes over the subpolar gyre. Nudging winds towards observations also reduces the 1979-2016 trend in AMOC, suggesting that improvement in the representation of the high-latitude atmosphere is important for projecting long-term AMOC changes.

AMOC↗

The effect of limiting aerodynamic and structural coupling in models of mistuned bladed disk vibration

A model has been developed for studying the effect of mistuning on bladed disk vibration which has the unique feature that the extent of aerodynamic and structural interaction which it simulates can be readily varied from full coupling of all blades on the disk to coupling of each blade with only its nearest neighbors. Simulations utilizing the resulting algorithm show that limited coupling models may be used to predict the statistical distribution of blade amplitudes that characterizes the mistuning effect, which in turn determines stage durability. This approach is used to study the effect of changing various system parameters on amplitude scatter. Gas density, the number of blades on the disk, disk stiffness, and the engine order of the excitation are considered. The results are used to draw some conclusions about how to improve laboratory tests and component design.

Basu, P.↗

Future Sea Level Change Under CMIP5 and CMIP6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

Antarctica↗

One-Dimensional Coupled Ecosystem-Carbon Flux Model for the Simulation of Biogeochemical Parameters at Ocean Weather Station P

In this Technical Publication, we describe the model functionality and analyze its application to the seasonal and interannual variations of phytoplankton, nutrients, pCO2 and CO2 concentrations in the eastern subarctic Pacific at Ocean Weather Station P (OWSP, 50 deg. N 145 deg. W). We use a verified one-dimensional ecosystem model, coupled with newly incorporated carbon flux and carbon chemistry components, to simulate 22 years (1958-1980) of pCO2 and CO2 variability at Ocean Weather Station P (OWS P). This relatively long period of simulation verifies and extends the findings of previous studies using an explicit approach for the biological component and realistic coupling with the carbon flux dynamics. The slow currents and the horizontally homogeneous ocean in the subarctic Pacific make OWS P one of the best available candidates for modeling the chemistry of the upper ocean in one dimension. The chlorophyll and ocean currents composite for 1998 illustrates this premise. The chlorophyll concentration map was derived from SeaWiFS data and the currents are from an OGCM simulation (from R. Murtugudde).

Signorini, S.↗

Numerical case study of the aerosol–cloud interactions in warm boundary layer clouds over the eastern North Atlantic with an interactive chemistry module

The presence of warm boundary layer stratiform clouds over the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) region is commonly influenced by the Azores High, especially during the summer season. To investigate comprehensive aerosol–cloud interactions, this study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a chemistry component (WRF-Chem), incorporating aerosol chemical components that are relevant to the formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and accounting for aerosol spatiotemporal variation. This study focuses on aerosol indirect effects, particularly the long-range transport of aerosols, in the ENA region under three different weather regimes: a ridge with a surface high-pressure system, a post-trough with a surface high-pressure system, and a weak trough. The WRF-Chem simulations conducted at a near-large-eddy scale offer valuable insights into the model's performance, especially in terms of its ability to use high spatial resolution to capture mesoscale cloud features across various weather regimes. Our result shows that introducing 5 times more aerosols to either non-precipitating or precipitating clouds significantly increases ambient CCN numbers, resulting in, to varying degrees, higher liquid water path (LWP) values. The substantial aerosol–cloud interaction especially occurs in the precipitating clouds and demonstrates the susceptibility of the LWP to changes in CCN under different regimes. Conversely, thin, non-rain clouds at the edges of a cloud system are prone to evaporation, exhibiting an aerosol drying effect. The aerosols released during this process transition back to the accumulation mode, facilitating future activation. This dynamic behavior is not adequately represented in prescribed-aerosol simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Coupled Aeroelastic Model for Launch Vehicle Stability Analysis

A technique for incorporating distributed aerodynamic normal forces and aeroelastic coupling effects into a stability analysis model of a launch vehicle is presented. The formulation augments the linear state-space launch vehicle plant dynamics that are compactly derived as a system of coupled linear differential equations representing small angular and translational perturbations of the rigid body, nozzle, and sloshing propellant coupled with normal vibration of a set of orthogonal modes. The interaction of generalized forces due to aeroelastic coupling and thrust can be expressed as a set of augmenting non-diagonal stiffness and damping matrices in modal coordinates with no penalty on system order. While the eigenvalues of the structural response in the presence of thrust and aeroelastic forcing can be predicted at a given flight condition independent of the remaining degrees of freedom, the coupled model provides confidence in closed-loop stability in the presence of rigid-body, slosh, and actuator dynamics. Simulation results are presented that characterize the coupled dynamic response of the Ares I launch vehicle and the impact of aeroelasticity on control system stability margins.

Orr, Jeb S.↗

Future CH4 Budgets as Modelled By A Fully Coupled Earth System Model Using Prescribed GHG Concentrations vs. Interactive CH4 Sources and Sinks

We have used the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth system model GISS-E2.1 to study the future budgets and trends of global and regional CH4 under different emission scenarios. GISS-E2.1 is one of the few ESMs that can be driven by anthropogenic CH4 emissions, as well as interactive natural sources such as wetlands, and can simulate the tropospheric CH4 chemistry. In frame of the recent short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) assessment by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), we used the GISS-E2.1 model with prescribed long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. In the present study, we have supplemented these simulations using the interactive CH4 sources and sinks in order to quantify the model performance and the sensitivity to CH4 sources and sinks. We have used the Current Legislation (CLE) and the Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) emission scenarios from the Eclipse V6b emission database to simulate the future chemical composition and climate impacts from 2015 to 2050. We have also simulated 1995-2014 in order to evaluate the model performance following the AMAP-SLCF protocol. The prescribed GHG version underestimates the Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) surface CH4 observations during the period between 1995 and 2023 by 1% [-8.4%-2.0%], with a correlation (r) of 0.71 [-0.41 0.99]. The largest underestimations are over the continental emission regions such as North America, Europe, and Asia, while biases are smallest over oceans. On the other hand, the simulation with interactive sources and sinks underestimates the GAW observations more than the prescribed simulation, by 18.5% [-25% -10.4%], with a lower r of 0.36 [-0.82 0.93]. Opposite to the prescribed simulation, the biases are largest over oceans and smaller over the continents, however they are still larger over land than the prescribed simulation. The interactive simulation, with large sources virtually over land and strong sink over oceans, has a land/ocean ratio larger than 1 while the prescribed simulation has this ratio equal to 1 as it distributes the global prescribed CH4 concentration equally in longitude over a given latitude. This clearly shows that the interactive sources and sinks should be represented in models in order to realistically simulate the chemical composition and the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. As expected, the MFR scenario simulates lower global surface CH4 concentrations and burdens compared to the CLE scenario, however in both cases, global surface CH4 and burden continue to increase through 2050 compared to present day. In the CLE scenario, increases are largest over the equatorial belt, in particular over India and East China, while the MFR scenario shows increases over the whole Southern Hemisphere, however much smaller compared to CLE. Finally, the interactive simulation shows that the chemical CH4 sink increases in the CLE scenario, while it slightly decreases in the MFR, leading to a larger CH4 lifetime in the MFR scenario compared to in the CLE scenario.

CH4↗

High Temperature Degradation Mechanisms in Polymer Matrix Composites

Polymer matrix composites are increasingly used in demanding structural applications in which they may be exposed to harsh environments. The durability of such materials is a major concern, potentially limiting both the integrity of the structures and their useful lifetimes. The goal of the current investigation is to develop a mechanism-based model of the chemical degradation which occurs, such that given the external chemical environment and temperatures throughout the laminate, laminate geometry, and ply and/or constituent material properties, we can calculate the concentration of diffusing substances and extent of chemical degradation as functions of time and position throughout the laminate. This objective is met through the development and use of analytical models, coupled to an analysis-driven experimental program which offers both quantitative and qualitative information on the degradation mechanism. Preliminary analyses using a coupled diffusion/reaction model are used to gain insight into the physics of the degradation mechanisms and to identify crucial material parameters. An experimental program is defined based on the results of the preliminary analysis which allows the determination of the necessary material coefficients. Thermogravimetric analyses are carried out in nitrogen, air, and oxygen to provide quantitative information on thermal and oxidative reactions. Powdered samples are used to eliminate diffusion effects. Tests in both inert and oxidative environments allow the separation of thermal and oxidative contributions to specimen mass loss. The concentration dependency of the oxidative reactions is determined from the tests in pure oxygen. Short term isothermal tests at different temperatures are carried out on neat resin and unidirectional macroscopic specimens to identify diffusion effects. Mass loss, specimen shrinkage, the formation of degraded surface layers and surface cracking are recorded as functions of exposure time. Geometry effects in the neat resin, and anisotropic diffusion effects in the composites, are identified through the use of specimens with different aspect ratios. The data is used with the model to determine reaction coefficients and effective diffusion coefficients. The empirical and analytical correlations confirm the preliminary model results which suggest that mass loss at lower temperatures is dominated by oxidative reactions and that these reaction are limited by diffusion of oxygen from the surface. The mechanism-based model is able to successfully capture the basic physics of the degradation phenomena under a wide range of test conditions. The analysis-based test design is successful in separating out oxidative, thermal, and diffusion effects to allow the determination of material coefficients. This success confirms the basic picture of the process; however, a more complete understanding of some aspects of the physics are required before truly predictive capability can be achieved.

Cunningham, Ronan A.↗

High Temperature Degradation Mechanisms in Polymer Matrix Composites

Polymer matrix composites are increasingly used in demanding structural applications in which they may be exposed to harsh environments. The durability of such materials is a major concern, potentially limiting both the integrity of the structures and their useful lifetimes. The goal of the current investigation is to develop a mechanism-based model of the chemical degradation which occurs, such that given the external chemical environment and temperatures throughout the laminate, laminate geometry, and ply and/or constituent material properties, we can calculate the concentration of diffusing substances and extent of chemical degradation as functions of time and position throughout the laminate. This objective is met through the development and use of analytical models, coupled to an analysis-driven experimental program which offers both quantitative and qualitative information on the degradation mechanism. Preliminary analyses using coupled diffusion/reaction model are used to gain insight into the physics of the degradation mechanisms and to identify crucial material parameters. An experimental program is defined based on the results of the preliminary analysis which allows the determination of the necessary material coefficients. Thermogravimetric analyses are carried out in nitrogen, air, and oxygen to provide quantitative information on thermal and oxidative reactions. Powdered samples are used to eliminate diffusion effects. Tests in both inert and oxidative environments allow the separation of thermal and oxidative contributions to specimen mass loss. The concentration dependency of the oxidative reactions is determined from the tests in pure oxygen. Short term isothermal tests at different temperatures are carried out on neat resin and unidirectional macroscopic specimens to identify diffusion effects. Mass loss, specimen shrinkage, the formation of degraded surface layers and surface cracking are recorded as functions of exposure time. Geometry effects in the neat resin, and anisotropic diffusion effects in the composites, are identified through the use of specimens with different aspect ratios. The data is used with the model to determine reaction coefficients and effective diffusion coefficients. The empirical and analytical correlations confirm the preliminary model results which suggest that mass loss at lower temperatures is dominated by oxidative reactions and that these reaction are limited by diffusion of oxygen from the surface. The mechanism-based model is able to successfully capture the basic physics of the degradation phenomena under a wide range of test conditions. The analysis-based test design is successful in separating out oxidative, thermal, and diffusion effects to allow the determination of material coefficients. This success confirms the basic picture of the process; however, a more complete understanding of some aspects of the physics are required before truly predictive capability can be achieved.

Cunningham, Ronan A.↗