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DOE OSTI2024

Low-Cost Heliostat for High-Flux Small-Area Receivers (Final Technical Report)

This project analyzed a two-stage heliostat concept consisting of a tracking stage and a concentrating stage. The tracking stage uses mirrors mounted on a common drive that move to track the sun. The concentrating stage consists of stationary mirrors that each have a unique angle to direct rays towards a small-area, high-flux, point-focused receiver. By splitting the collection and concentrating process into two stages, multiple small, inexpensive mirrors can share a structure and be controlled by a single drive in the tracking stage. The project effort developed modeling techniques that were specifically relevant to this two-stage heliostat concept. Both field-level and unit-level models were developed. The field-level model does not explicitly consider unit-level losses which are predicted by the unit-level model and then integrated into the field-level model through a correlation referred to as an efficiency modifier. This approach is referred to as the two-model approach; the development and demonstration of this two-model approach for a multi-stage heliostat technology is a key outcome of this work. The field-level model is used to design a field that hits a specific design day power given a set of heliostat design parameters. An oversized field is simulated and then heliostat units are removed based on their annual energy production in order to generate the highest performing field. The field reduction procedure fits a smooth curve fit to annual energy production as a function of position in the field which has the effect of reducing the noise that is otherwise caused by the Monte Carlo ray tracing technique. This approach is referred to as the annual energy fit method and substantially reduces computational run time for a given field level modeling accuracy. The annual energy fit approach enables the selection of a properly sized, high-performing field using orders of magnitude fewer rays than would otherwise be possible and the development of this approach is a second key outcome of this work. These models are used within a genetic optimization algorithm in order to optimize the geometric parameters associated with a heliostat in order to achieve the lowest cost per unit of collected design day power. The cost modeling that underlies the optimization is a simple, scaling type analysis backed up by a much more detailed Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) analysis. Although the figure of merit used for optimization was not cost per mirror area, this metric is reasonable to use as a means of comparison. The optimally designed 500 kW design has a tracking mirror specific cost of $181.85/m 2 , which is significantly larger than the target value and also larger than the current state of the art. The cost of the torque-tube type linkages contributed substantially to the overall cost. Based on this observation, potentially attractive alternative design configuration utilizing a capstan type actuation system should be investigated. Finally, NREL compared the performance of the two-stage heliostat to the performance of a focused and different sized flat conventional heliostats and showed that, as expected, additional losses versus the convention heliostat caused by a worse cosine efficiency, two stages of reflection, and interstage interactions. The two-stage heliostat requires around 75% more reflective area than a flat 1x1 meter conventional heliostat (similar to a focused heliostat) and 40% more than a flat 2x2 meter conventional heliostat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Interpretable, extensible linear and symbolic regression models for charge density prediction using a hierarchy of many-body correlation descriptors

Here, density functional theory (DFT) is routinely used to make electronic structure predictions for high-throughput screening of materials and molecules for technologically relevant areas, like the identification of better catalysts, electronic materials, and drug discovery. However, the DFT formalism is limited by (a) its poor (quadratic-to-quartic) scaling, and (b) the need to perform repeated eigenvalue computations of the electronic Hamiltonian as part of its self-consistent field (SCF) iteration procedure to obtain the converged ground state electron density, ρ (r). Approaches that directly predict ρ (r) of a structure with high accuracy can accelerate conventional SCF calculations and can also be used in linearly scaling methods such as orbital-free DFT. To this end, we present a procedure to predict the ground state electron density of molecular and periodic three-dimensional systems directly from the atomic structure with a particular emphasis on physical interpretability. In our framework, ρ (r) is modeled using many-body correlation descriptors that accurately capture the effects of local atomic arrangements in the neighborhood of a grid point. Our use of a linear regression scheme to fit to charge density data enables transparent analysis of the relative contributions of various types of local atomic correlations. By systematically including increasingly complex correlations, our model is shown to accurately predict ρ (r) for a variety of chemically and electronically diverse systems — amorphous Ge, Al(001) slab, crystalline Ga 2 O 3 , molecular benzene, and polyethylene. We then demonstrate a symbolic regression-based protocol to construct easily computable, interpretable features from lower-order correlations that significantly improves our electron density predictions with effectively no increase in the computational cost.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Collisional stopping power of ions in warm dense matter

Here, a model for the collisional stopping of ions on free electrons in warm dense matter is developed and explored. It is based on plasma kinetic theory, but with modifications to address the warm dense matter regime. Specifically, it uses the Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck kinetic equation to incorporate effects of Fermi degeneracy of electrons. The cross section is computed from quantum scattering of electrons and ions occurring via the potential of mean force derived from an average atom model, which incorporates effects of strong Coulomb correlations. Predictions from this model show comparable accuracy to results from time-dependent density functional theory calculations for deuterium near solid density and a temperature of several electronvolts, at a fraction of the computational cost. Further, the model captures the transition of a plasma from the classical limit to the degenerate limit, including qualitative behaviors of solid state theory.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

To bin or not to bin: Does binning in multiplicity reliably suppress unwanted volume fluctuations?

Here, in this study, we examine the effect of the so-called Centrality Bin Width Correction (CBWC) on the measurement of (net-)proton number cumulants in nucleus-nucleus collisions. We present an analytically tractable model, which includes correlations between multiplicity and proton number similar to those generated by the decay of baryon resonances. Within this model, we analyze the circumstances under which the CBWC method correctly removes the undesired effects of volume or impact parameter fluctuations. Additionally, we explore situations where the method fails and produces misleading results.

Critical point↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fluctuating charge-density-wave correlations in the three-band Hubbard model

The high-temperature superconducting cuprates host unidirectional spin- and charge-density-wave orders that can intertwine with superconductivity in nontrivial ways. While the charge components of these stripes have now been observed in nearly all cuprate families, their detailed evolution with doping varies across different materials and at high and low temperatures. We address this problem using nonperturbative determinant quantum Monte Carlo calculations for the three-band Hubbard model. Using an efficient implementation, we can resolve the model’s fluctuating spin and charge modulations and map their evolution as a function of the charge transfer energy and doping. We find that the incommensurability of the charge modulations is decoupled from the spin modulations and decreases with hole doping, consistent with experimental measurements at high temperatures. These findings support the proposal that the high-temperature charge correlations are distinct from the intertwined stripe order observed at low-temperature and in the single-band Hubbard model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data Files for P. Mai et al., "Fluctuating charge-density-wave correlations in the three-band Hubbard model" (2024)

cuprates↗

DOE OSTI2026

Statistical Correlation of Heliostat Pointing Deviation With Wind

This work was carried out as part of the Heliostat Consortium (HelioCon) Field Deployment subtask with the aim to develop a reduced order model framework for correlating wind speed and pointing deviation of a heliostat facet. There are only sparse field measurements of heliostat pointing deviations and accompanying wind conditions published in the literature. Heliostat test standards, such as IEC 62862-4-3, propose a suite of tests including laser pointing repeatability at wind speeds below 4 m/s, and provide technical requirements for heliostat slope and tracking deviations in coarse average wind speed bins of 4 m/s, 6 m/s, and 8 m/s. In addressing the gap of the variation of heliostat pointing deviation with wind speed, field measurements of laser pointing on a grid target and wind conditions were analyzed in this study at the Third-Party Metrology Platform at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) Flatirons Campus. Horizontal pointing deviations were found to follow a logarithmic relationship with peak wind speed, whereas vertical pointing deviations follow an exponential relationship with peak wind speed. Both horizontal and vertical pointing deviations also follow a second order polynomial relationship, as expected from the proportionality of elastic loads and deformations with the square of wind speed. The results indicate that heliostat facet pointing deviations in the vertical direction increase at a faster rate than in the horizontal direction with increasing wind speed over the tested range, however these are dependent on the heliostat structural design. Next steps are recommended for additional field measurements to confirm a linear relationship of pointing deviation with applied moment on a heliostat facet, and to distinguish between gravity-induced and wind-induced pointing deviations at different elevation angles. The derived correlations in the preliminary analysis in this report serve as a case study for heliostat developers and plant operators to estimate the wind-induced pointing deviations and their variation with peak gust wind speed. Next steps in future work would recommend higher resolution and longer duration datasets for different elevation angles and wind directions to reduce uncertainties and variance of collected laser beam spot data and their correlations with bin-averaged wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Driven Reliability Estimation of PV Inverters Considering Alert-Ambient Variability

Weather-induced spatio-temporal degradation limits outdoor PV inverter lifetime and reliability, necessitating advanced data analysis. This study employs a top-down, data-driven approach utilizing multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms to estimate inverter reliability in a 1.4 MW PV power plant, considering factors such as irradiance, humidity, temperature, time of day, and weather conditions. An extensive alert dataset from 17 identical inverters, including alert types, propagation, and frequency, reveals significant correlations with environmental factors and inverter output power, enabling the construction of a performance reliability model. Dual-stage supervised-ML models are evaluated for accuracy, with the ‘classification-regression’ model by an artificial neural network (ANN) tested on the averaged “Alert-Ambient” dataset, which is outperformed by ‘clustering-regression’ models using random forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) on individual inverter datasets. K-means clustering applies principal component analysis to reduce dimensions, achieving improved accuracy beyond the 80% achieved by ANN on the averaged dataset. Second-stage regression estimates inverter reliability with a mean square error of 0.0195 on the averaged dataset and as low as 0.002 on individual inverter datasets using RF. Furthermore, these findings highlight the method's suitability for estimating PV inverter output reliability under ambient conditions, essential for digital twin development and related applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the effect of wind speed and direction shear on utility‐scale wind turbine power production

Abstract Wind speed and direction variations across the rotor affect power production. As utility‐scale turbines extend higher into the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) with larger rotor diameters and hub heights, they increasingly encounter more complex wind speed and direction variations. We assess three models for power production that account for wind speed and direction shear. Two are based on actuator disc representations, and the third is a blade element representation. We also evaluate the predictions from a standard power curve model that has no knowledge of wind shear. The predictions from each model, driven by wind profile measurements from a profiling LiDAR, are compared to concurrent power measurements from an adjacent utility‐scale wind turbine. In the field measurements of the utility‐scale turbine, discrete combinations of speed and direction shear induce changes in power production of −19% to +34% relative to the turbine power curve for a given hub height wind speed. Positive speed shear generally corresponds to over‐performance and increasing magnitudes of direction shear to greater under‐performance, relative to the power curve. Overall, the blade element model produces both higher correlation and lower error relative to the other models, but its quantitative accuracy depends on induction and controller sub‐models. To further assess the influence of complex, non‐monotonic wind profiles, we also drive the models with best‐fit power law wind speed profiles and linear wind direction profiles. These idealized inputs produce qualitative and quantitative differences in power predictions from each model, demonstrating that time‐varying, non‐monotonic wind shear affects wind power production.

Energy & Fuels↗

DOE OSTI2025

Delineating the Effects of Counterions on the Structural and Vibrational Properties of U(IV) Lindqvist Polyoxometalate Complexes

Herein we conducted a full investigation into the fundamental structural and vibrational properties of uranium(IV) Peacock−Weakley-type lacunary Lindqvist (W 10 ) polyoxometalate (POM) complexes. We recently demonstrated the importance of the secondary lattice elements in tuning the distortion of the D 4d symmetry in W 10 POM complexes, and here, we synthesized eight UW 10 complexes with different alkali metal counterions and evaluated how the composition and packing of counterion species affected complex structural and vibrational properties. Single-crystal X-ray diffraction analysis on complexes 1−8 revealed changes in structural distortion parameters as a function of differences in counterion configurations, while far-infrared and Raman spectra for 1−8 also demonstrated that vibrational mode frequencies were sensitive to changes in counterion composition and packing. To more effectively compare different counterion configurations, we developed counterion effective ionic radius (eIR) as a new structural parameter, and comparisons between structural distortion parameters and eIR values strongly suggested that modulation by the secondary lattice elements can affect structural and vibrational manifolds within POM complexes. Partial least squares (PLS) analysis was used to quantitatively evaluate correlations observed within this investigation, and PLS statistical models showed a strong correlation between counterion eIR and both structural distortion parameters and vibrational mode frequencies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying carrier density in monolayer MoS 2 by optical spectroscopy

The successful design and device integration of nanoscale heterointerfaces hinges upon precise manipulation of both ground- and excited-state charge carrier (electron and hole) densities. However, it is particularly challenging to quantify these charge carrier densities in nanoscale materials, leading to uncertainties in the mechanisms of many carrier density-dependent properties and processes. Here, we demonstrate a method that utilizes steady-state and transient absorption spectroscopies to correlate monolayer MoS 2 electron density with the easily measured metric of excitonic optical absorption quenching in a variety of mixed-dimensionality s-SWCNT/MoS 2 heterostructures. By employing a 2D phase-space filling model, the resulting correlation elucidates the relationship between charge density, local dielectric environment, and concomitant excitonic properties. The phase-space filling model is also able to describe existing trends from the literature on transistor-based measurements on MoS 2 , WS 2 , and MoSe 2 monolayers that were not previously compared to a physical model, providing additional support for our method and results. The findings provide a pathway to the community for estimating both ground- and excited-state carrier densities in a wide range of TMDC-based systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2

The development, implementation, and evaluation of a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system for the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) utilizing the four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) method are presented in this study. The 4DEnVar method, based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) approach, replaces the adjoint model with the ensemble technique, thereby reducing computational demands. Monthly mean ocean temperature and salinity data from the EN4.2.1 reanalysis are integrated into the ocean component of E3SMv2 from 1950 to 2021 with the goal of providing realistic initial conditions for decadal predictions and predictability studies. The performance of the WCODA system is assessed using various metrics, including the reduction rate of the cost function, root mean square error (RMSE) differences, correlation differences, and model biases. Results indicate that the WCODA system effectively assimilates the reanalysis data into the climate model, consistently achieving negative reduction rates of the cost function and notable improvements in RMSE and correlation across various ocean layers and regions. Significant enhancements are observed in the upper ocean layers across the majority of global ocean regions, particularly in the north Atlantic, north Pacific, and Indian Ocean. Model biases in sea surface temperature and salinity are also substantially reduced. For sea surface temperature, cold biases in the north Pacific and north Atlantic are diminished by about 1–2 °C, and warm biases in the Southern Ocean are corrected by approximately 1.5–2.5 °C. In terms of salinity, improvements are observed with bias reductions of about 0.5–1 psu in the north Atlantic and north Pacific and up to 1.5 psu in parts of the Southern Ocean. The ultimate goal of the WCODA system is to advance the predictive capabilities of E3SM for subseasonal to decadal climate predictions, thereby supporting research on strategic energy-sector policies and planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Strong Light-Matter Coupling in Correlated Systems: State-Averaged Cavity Quantum Electrodynamics Complete Active Space Self-Consistent Field Theory

The description of strongly correlated systems interacting with quantized cavity modes poses significant theoretical challenges due to the combinatorial scaling of electronic and photonic degrees of freedom. Recent advances addressing this complexity include cavity quantum electrodynamics (QED) generalizations of complete active space configuration interaction and density matrix renormalization group methods. In this work, we introduce a QED extension of state-averaged complete active space self-consistent field theory, which incorporates cavity-induced correlations through a second-order orbital optimization framework with robust convergence properties. The method is implemented using both photon number state and coherent state representations, with the latter showing robust origin invariance in the energies regardless of the completeness of the photonic Fock space. The implementation enables symmetry-free orbital relaxations to account for photon-mediated symmetry breaking in polaritonic systems. Numerical validation on lithium hydride, hydroxide anion, and magnesium hydride cation demonstrates that this method achieves significantly improved accuracy in modeling ground-state and polariton potential energy surfaces compared to QED-CASCI in a fixed orbital basis. In these studies, we reach sub-kcal/mol accuracy in potential energy surface in much smaller active spaces than are required for QED-CASCI. This advancement provides a more robust approach for studying cavity-altered chemical landscapes for ground and exited strongly coupled systems.

CASSCF↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Conavigation: Dynamic Designing of the Material Digital Twins via Active Learning

Scientific advancement is universally based on the dynamic interplay between theoretical insights, modeling, and experimental discoveries. However, this feedback loop is often slow, including delayed community interactions and the gradual integration of experimental data into theoretical frameworks. This challenge is particularly exacerbated in domains dealing with high-dimensional object spaces, such as molecules and complex microstructures. Hence, the integration of theory within automated and autonomous experimental setups, or theory in the loop-automated experiment, is emerging as a crucial objective for accelerating scientific research. The critical aspect is to use not only theory but also on-the-fly theory updates during the experiment. Furthermore, we introduce a method for integrating theory into the loop through Bayesian conavigation of theoretical model space and experimentation. Our approach leverages the concurrent development of surrogate models for both simulation and experimental domains at the rates determined by latencies and costs of experiments and computation, alongside the adjustment of control parameters within theoretical models to minimize epistemic uncertainty over the experimental object spaces. This methodology facilitates the creation of digital twins of material structures, encompassing both the surrogate model of behavior that includes the correlative part and the theoretical model itself. While being demonstrated here within the context of functional responses in ferroelectric materials, our approach holds promise for broader applications, such as the exploration of optical properties in nanoclusters, microstructure-dependent properties in complex materials, and properties of molecular systems.

Microscopy↗

DOE OSTI2021

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NR↗

DOE OSTI2024

Topological and magnetic properties of the interacting Bernevig-Hughes-Zhang model

We investigate the effects of electronic correlations on the Bernevig-Hughes-Zhang model using the real-space density matrix renormalization group (DMRG) algorithm. We introduce a method to probe topological phase transitions in systems with strong correlations using DMRG, substantiated by an unsupervised machine learning methodology that analyzes the orbital structure of the real-space edges. Including the full multi-orbital Hubbard interaction term, we construct a phase diagram as a function of a gap parameter (m) and the Hubbard interaction strength (U) via exact DMRG simulations on N×4 cylinders. Our analysis confirms that the topological phase persists in the presence of interactions, consistent with previous studies, but it also reveals an intriguing phase transition from a paramagnetic to a stripey antiferromagnetic topological insulator. The combination of the magnetic structure factor, strength of magnetic moments, and the orbitally resolved density, provides real-space information on both topology and magnetism in a strongly correlated system.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurements of polarization and spin correlation and observation of entanglement in top quark pairs using lepton + jets events from proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 13 TeV

Measurements of the polarization and spin correlation in top quark pairs ($t\bar{t}$) are presented using events with a single electron or muon and jets in the final state. The measurements are based on proton-proton collision data from the LHC at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ =13 TeV collected by the CMS experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . All coefficients of the polarization vectors and the spin correlation matrix are extracted simultaneously by performing a binned likelihood fit to the data. The measurement is performed inclusively and in bins of additional observables, such as the mass of the $t\bar{t}$ system and the top quark scattering angle in the $t\bar{t}$ rest frame. The measured polarization and spin correlation are in agreement with the standard model. From the measured spin correlation, conclusions on the $t\bar{t}$ spin entanglement are drawn by applying the Peres-Horodecki criterion. The standard model predicts entangled spins for $t\bar{t}$ states at the production threshold and at high masses of the $t\bar{t}$ system. Entanglement is observed for the first time in events at high $t\bar{t}$ mass, where a large fraction of the $t\bar{t}$ decays are spacelike separated, with an expected and observed significance of above 5 standard deviations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simplified calculation of the area specific impedance for solid-state battery design

Simplified algebraic area specific impedance (ASI) correlations have been developed for solid-state composite battery electrodes made of a single ion conducting electrolyte, conductive additive, and intercalation active material. Two ASI expressions were developed, one for short times ( i.e. , pulsed power operation) and another for the pseudo steady state operation (i.e., sustained discharge for energy estimation). A full electrochemical model based on porous electrode theory was developed to examine the accuracy of the simplified ASI expressions. The simplified expressions agree favorably with full model results over a wide range of parameters (i.e. , electrode thicknesses, electrolyte conductivities, solid-state diffusion coefficients, specific surface areas, etc.) and conditions (i.e. , C-rates, states of charge, and pulse times). Under most conditions, the error between the full model and the correlations is well below 7 %. Higher errors were observed for the pseudo steady state expression at high/ low states of charge where the assumption of uniform reaction distributions loses validity. Here, the short time ASI has higher error at low states of charge due to the nonlinearity of the open circuit voltage equation, which is assumed linear in the formulation of the simplified algebraic expression.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗