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At least 109 records · Page 6

Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation Disaggregation using Consumer Mixture Models

To facilitate deep penetration of solar energy in smart grids, we need high observability of solar generation at the edges of the grid. Current advanced metering infrastructures (AMI) only monitor the aggregated measurements from net-metered households, but disaggregated consumption and solar generation components are required for grid optimizations. We propose an unsupervised disaggregation model for disaggregating solar generation from AMI measurements without the need of training data. The model requires only AMI measurements from consumers in a region and the solar irradiance as input, and models the consumption of consumers by neighboring households without rooftop photovoltaics (PV) to perform the disaggregation. We evaluate our results on a real life dataset from Austin, Texas. We show that our model is able to disaggregate consumption and solar generation measurements with 42.24% and 31.67% less mean squared error, respectively, in comparison to a baseline technique that uses supervised learning. This shows that our model is capable of disaggregating historical data even if the dataset has no training data and only contains minimal exogenous data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

U.S. residential consumer product information: Validation of methods for post-stratification weighting of Amazon Mechanical Turk surveys

We present two post-stratification weighting methods to validate survey data collected using Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT). Two surveys focused on appliance and consumer electronics devices were administered in the spring and summer of 2012 to each of approximately 3,000 U.S. households. Specifically, the surveys asked questions about residential refrigeration products, televisions (TVs) and set-top boxes (STBs). Filtered data were assigned weights using each of two weighting methods, termed “sequential” and “simultaneous,” by examining up to eight demographic variables (income, education, gender, race, Hispanic origin, number of occupants, ages of occupants, and geographic region) in comparison to reference U.S. demographic data from the 2009 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS). Five key questions from the surveys (number of refrigerators, number of freezers, number of TVs, number of STBs and primary service provider) were evaluated with a set of statistical tests to determine whether either method improved the agreement of AMT with reference data, and if so, which method was better. The statistical tests used were: differences in proportions, distributions of proportions (using Pearson’s chi-squared test), and differences in average numbers of devices as functions of all demographic variables. The results indicated that both methods generally improved the agreement between AMT and reference data, sometimes greatly, but that the simultaneous method was usually superior to the sequential method. Some differences in sample populations were found between the AMT and reference data. Differences in the proportion of STBs reflected large changes in the STB market since the time our reference data was acquired in 2009. Differences in the proportions of some primary service providers suggested real sample bias, with the possible explanation that AMT user are more likely to subscribe to providers who also provide home internet service. Differences in other variables, while statistically significant in some cases, were nonetheless considered to be minor. Depending on the intended purpose of the data collected using AMT, these biases may or may not be important; to correct them, additional questions and/or further post-survey adjustments could be employed. In general, based on the analysis methods and the sample datasets used in this study, AMT surveys appeared to provide useful data on appliance and consumer electronics devices.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Can Standards Increase Consumer Welfare? Evidence from a Change in Clothes Washer

We study prices and sales of individual clothes washer models before, during and after a 2007 standard that banned manufacture (but not sale) of low-e ciency units and increased the threshold for Energy Star certi cation. While quantities sold of washer models banned from manufacture decreased sharply, prices for banned models increased only modestly. At the same time, sales of higher-e ciency units rose markedly while prices for high-e ciency units declined. On average, washer e ciency increased but prices changed little. A simple welfare analysis indicates that consumer welfare loss from banned washers was far outweighed by gains from lower-priced high-e ciency units. While a full cost-bene t analysis is not feasible with the available data, we estimate a lower-bound gain in consumer surplus equal to 6-16 percent of total sales. This result may accord with earlier theoretical research that shows quality standards can increase welfare in monopolistically competitive industries that possess increasing returns to scale (Ronnen, 1991). Thus, if energy e ciency is a close proxy for quality, energy e ciency standards may increase competition, market e ciency and welfare.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Path to Savings: Understanding the Federal Purchase of Energy-Consuming Products

Energy efficiency has been a federal procurement policy objective since at least 1992, with the origin of the Energy Efficient Product Procurement (EEPP) program within the larger Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP). Today, the EEPP program’s mandate is based on requirements that 95% of new contract actions, task orders, and delivery orders for products and services be energy and water efficient, as laid out in Executive Order 13514 in 2009. Facilitating full compliance with EO 13514 presents a significant strategic planning challenge to the FEMP EEPP program, given the size of the federal government, the range of missions of its many agencies, the mix of management approaches for its buildings, and the diverse set of roughly 80 energy efficient products which has been established through preceding legislation and executive orders. The goal of this report is to aid the program in prioritizing its resources by providing an overview of how the purchase of energy-consuming products occurs in today’s evolving federal procurement system, as well as identify likely intervention points and compliance review mechanisms. Through a synthesis of the literature on U.S. federal sector procurement and two dozen primary interviews, the report particularly focuses on the importance of price in determining the actor(s) responsible for any given purchase of an energy-consuming product. This identification is important, as the relevant actors are trained and reviewed in different ways that the FEMP EEPP program can prioritize for targeting, based on the decision criteria such as the potential energy savings associated with the actor’s purchases or the administrative ease of the intervention.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Recovery of Utility Fixed Costs: Utility, Consumer, Environmental and Economist Perspectives

Utilities recover costs for providing electric service to retail customers through a combination of rate components that together comprise customers’ monthly electric bills. Rates and rate designs are set by state regulators and vary by jurisdiction, utility and customer class. In addition to the fundamental tenet of setting fair and reasonable rates, rate design balances economic efficiency, equity and fairness, customer satisfaction, utility revenue stability, and customer price and bill stability. At the most basic level, retail electricity bills in the United States typically include a fixed monthly customer charge — a set dollar amount regardless of energy usage — and a volumetric energy charge for each kilowatt-hour consumed. The energy charge may be flat across all hours, vary by usage level (for example, higher rates at higher levels of usage), or vary based on time of consumption. While some utility costs, such as fuel costs, clearly vary according to electricity usage, other costs are “fixed” over the short run — generally, those that do not vary over the course of a year. Depending on your point of view, and whether the state’s electricity industry has been restructured or remains vertically integrated, the set of costs that are “fixed” may be quite limited. Or the set may extend to all capacity costs for generation, transmission and distribution. In the long run, all costs are variable. In the context of flat or declining loads in some regions, utilities are proposing a variety of changes to retail rate designs, particularly for residential customers, to recover fixed costs. In this report, authors representing utility (Chapter 1), consumer (Chapter 2), environmentalist (Chapter 3) and economist (Chapter 4) perspectives discuss fixed costs for electric utilities and set out their principles for recovering those costs. The table on the next page summarizes each author’s relative preferences for various options for fixed cost recovery, some of which may be used in combination. The specific design of any ratemaking option matters crucially, so a general preference for a given option does not indicate support for any particular application.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Electric Vehicles in Colorado: Anticipating Consumer Demand for Direct Current Fast Charging

To support the State of Colorado in planning for growth in direct current fast charging (DCFC) for electric vehicles, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has partnered with the Regional Air Quality Council (RAQC) and the Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) to analyze a number of DCFC investment scenarios. NREL analyzed existing electric vehicle registration data from IHS Markit (IHS) to highlight early trends in the electric vehicle market, which were compared with sales forecasts predicting large growth in the Colorado electric vehicle market. Electric vehicle forecasts were then used to develop future DCFC scenarios to be evaluated in a simulation environment to estimate consumer benefits of the hypothetical DCFC networks in terms of increased driving range and electric vehicle miles traveled (eVMT). Simulated utilization of the hypothetical DCFC networks was analyzed for geographic trends, particularly for correlations with vehicle electric range. Finally, a subset of simulations is presented for consumers with potentially inconsistent access to charging at their home location and presumably greater reliance on public DCFC infrastructure.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

The Value of Wind Technology Innovation: Implications for the U.S. Power System, Wind Industry, Electricity Consumers, and Environment

Improvements to wind technologies have, in part, led to substantial deployment of U.S. wind power in recent years. The degree to which technology innovation will continue is highly uncertain adding to uncertainties in future wind deployment. We apply electric sector modeling to estimate the potential wind deployment opportunities across a range of technology advancement projections. The suite of projections considered span a wide range of possible cost and technology innovation trajectories, including those from a recent expert elicitation of wind energy experts, a projection based on the broader literature, and one reflecting estimates based on a U.S. DOE research initiative. In addition, we explore how these deployment pathways may impact the electricity system, electricity consumers, the environment, and the wind-related workforce. Overall, our analysis finds that wind technology innovation can have consequential implications for future wind power development throughout the United States, impact the broader electricity system, lower electric system and consumer costs, provide potential environmental benefits, and grow the U.S. wind workforce.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Estimating returns to scale and scale efficiency for energy consuming appliances

Energy consuming appliances accounted for over 40% of the energy use and $17 billion in sales in the U.S. in 2014. Whether such amounts of money and energy were optimally combined to produce household energy services is not straightforwardly determined. The efficient allocation of capital and energy to provide an energy service has been previously approached, and solved with Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) under constant returns to scale. That approach, however, lacks the scale dimension of the problem and may restrict the economic efficient models of an appliance available in the market when constant returns to scale does not hold. We expand on that approach to estimate returns to scale for energy using appliances. We further calculate DEA scale efficiency scores for the technically efficient models that comprise the economic efficient frontier of the energy service delivered, under different assumptions of returns to scale. We then apply this approach to evaluate dishwashers available in the market in the U.S. Our results show that (a) for the case of dishwashers scale matters, and (b) the dishwashing energy service is delivered under non-decreasing returns to scale. The results further demonstrate that this method contributes to increase consumers’ choice of appliances.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Consumer Purchasing Behavior and Usage of Lighting in the Residential Sector

We present the results of a 2019 online survey of 1,800 adults in the United States who recently purchased a light bulb to understand how consumers make decisions about purchasing light bulbs and how light bulbs are used in the residential sector. From our survey, we found that purchases of LED bulbs made up the largest percentage of sales by lighting technology and respondents generally had positive impressions of LEDs. We estimated the average daily hours of use for bulbs being purchased depending on bulb shape. We also provide an estimate for the lumen distribution of purchased light bulbs and the distribution of installation locations by bulb shape. We found that incandescent bulb purchasers were primarily replacing a failed incandescent bulb and these purchasers were less likely to have favorable impressions of LEDs. However, we found that the majority of participants replacing an incandescent bulb purchased either a CFL or LED. Using an adaptive conjoint analysis technique, we found that the five most important factors to consumers when choosing a light bulb are purchase price, bulb lifetime, energy cost savings relative to an incandescent bulb, light appearance, and energy savings relative to an incandescent bulb. The results of this study provide an in-depth look at the lighting market in 2019 and may provide a basis for developing models of the residential lighting market.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Consumer Benefits of Clean Energy: The resilience value of residential solar + storage systems in the continental U.S.

Meeting national and state decarbonization goals requires a transition to clean energy technologies. Energy efficiency, demand flexibility, renewable energy and storage can reduce consumers’ electricity bills, lower total electricity system costs, and provide health and resilience benefits. Berkeley Lab developed a series of briefs that explore these consumer benefits of a clean energy transition. Clean energy resources that are located behind the meter have the potential to benefit the hosting customers by providing affordability, environmental, and reliability and resilience value. Solar plus storage systems (PVESS) are clean energy resources that can supply backup power without requiring fuel resupply or increasing local emissions. This report examines the regional value of PVESS for resilience by calculating a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) that considers the annual resiliency benefits of PVESS and the annualized cost of the investment. In addition, we estimate the expected technical mitigation potential of PVESS systems at the county-level to these expected events, and characterize the customer interruption costs by determining the value of lost load at the state level.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Consumer Benefits of Clean Energy: Energy Efficiency

Meeting national and state decarbonization goals requires a transition to clean energy technologies. Energy efficiency, demand flexibility, renewable energy and storage can reduce consumers’ electricity bills, lower total electricity system costs, and provide health and resilience benefits. Berkeley Lab developed a series of briefs that explore these consumer benefits of a clean energy transition. This brief focuses on energy efficiency benefits, and builds on prior analysis from Berkeley Lab’s Cost of Saved Energy database. We show that energy efficiency remains a low-cost energy and capacity resource; the levelized cost of saving energy for the programs included in the analysis is $\$0.02$/kilowatt-hour and the cost of saving peak demand is less $\$120$/kilowatt. Understanding the impact of the program mix, portfolio size, and duration of implementation for customer-funded energy efficiency portfolios can guide regulatory oversight of these programs, help utilities better utilize energy efficiency as a resource, and inform building energy decarbonization policies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Power arc welder touch-started with consumable electrode

Power arc welder formed as a hand-held welding gun touch-starts, retracts a consumable electrode to create the desired arc, and then commences feeding of the consumable electrode at the rate required to form the intended bead or spot. This device achieves uniform spot welds repeatedly.

Jeannette, J. C.↗

Detailed Skylab ECS consumables analysis for the interim revision flight plan (November, 1972, SL-1 launch)

The consumables analysis was performed for the Skylab 2, 3, and 4 Preliminary Reference Interim Revision Flight Plan. The analysis and the results are based on the mission requirements as specified in the flight plan and on other available data. The results indicate that the consumables requirements for the Skylab missions allow for remaining margins (percent) of oxygen, nitrogen, and water nominal as follows: 83.5, 90.8, and 88.7 for mission SL-2; 57.1, 64.1, and 67.3 for SL-3; and 30.8, 44.3, and 46.5 for SL-4. Performance of experiment M509 as scheduled in the flight plan results in venting overboard the cluster atmosphere. This is due to the addition of nitrogen for propulsion and to the additional oxygen introduced into the cabin when the experiment is performed with the crewman suited.

Wells, C.↗

Consumer product safety: A systems problem

The manufacturer, tester, retailer, consumer, repairer disposer, trade and professional associations, national and international standards bodies, and governments in several roles are all involved in consumer product safety. A preliminary analysis, drawing on system safety techniques, is utilized to distinguish the inter-relations of these many groups and the responsibilities that they are or could take for product safety, including the slow accident hazards as well as the more commonly discussed fast accident hazards. The importance of interactive computer aided information flow among these groups is particularly stressed.

Carl C. Clark↗

Consumer Marketing and the Airline Industry

The fundamentals of consumer marketing as applied to the airline industry are considered. An attempt is made to boil down the mystique and jargon which frequently surround the subject of marketing. Topics covered include: (1) The marketing concept; (2) consumer expectations from airlines; (3) planning of marketing strategy; and (4) the roles of advertising, sales, and middlemen.

Roy, W. R.↗

Solar electric and thermal conversion system in close proximity to the consumer

Solar cells may be used to convert sunlight directly into electrical energy and into lowgrade heat to be used for large-scale terrestrial solar-energy conversion. Both forms of energy can be utilized if such cells are deployed in close proximity to the consumer (rooftop). Cadmium-sulfide/copper-sulfide (CdS/Cu2S) solar cells are an example of cells which may be produced inexpensively enough to become economically attractive. Cell parameters relevant for combined solar conversion are presented. Critical issues, such as production yield, life expectancy, and stability of performance, are discussed. Systems-design parameters related to operating temperatures are analyzed. First results obtained on Solar One, the experimental house of the University of Delaware, are given. Economic aspects are discussed. Different modes of operation are discussed in respect to the power utility and consumer incentives.

Boeer, K. W.↗

Formulation of detailed consumables management models for the development (preoperational) period of advanced space transportation system. Volume 1: Detailed requirements for the mission planning processor

Detailed requirements for the mission planning processor are documented. The mission planning processor is a user oriented tool for consumables management and is part of the total consumables subsystem management concept. A quasi top-down approach was applied to the design of the mission planning processor. Interface requirements, input/output, and data base concepts were considered before computational processing. Existing analytical models were investigated for applicability before new models were developed. The mission planning processor was designed for an interactive system using demand terminals for input/outputdisplay and interfacing with an updateable mission data bank. The control and support routines provide the user interface, peripheral data handling, program control, and support functions required by the mission planning processor for execution on an interactive system. A description, interface requirements, definition of internal variables, listing of input data, processing flow diagram, and listing of output data are presented for each routine.

Connelly, L. C.↗