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At least 109 records · Page 6

A Hybrid Method of Assurance Cases and Testing for Improved Confidence in Autonomous Space Systems

Autonomous systems react intelligently to their environments, making them capable of handling many possible conditions, but challenging to test. We are investigating a new test development method that aims to maximize the confidence to be achieved by combining Assurance Cases with High Throughput Testing (HTT). Assurance Cases, developed for safety-critical systems, are a rigorous argument that the system satisfies a property (e.g., the Mars rover will not tip over during a traverse). They integrate testing, analysis, and environmental and operational assumptions, from which the set of conditions that testing must cover is determined. In our method, information from the Assurance Case is used to determine the test coverage needed, and then input to HTT to generate the minimal test suites needed to provide that coverage.

Huntsberger, Terry↗

Algorithmic Classification of Raman Spectra Biosignatures: Improving Life Detection Confidence

“Agnostic” biosignatures – indicators of life (or the absence of life), independent of a particular biochemistry – are increasingly considered a high standard for life detection. The Ladder of Life Detection (2018) called for investigating how combinations of independent and different potential biosignatures affect confidence. To address this gap, statistical classification of elemental abundances, isotopic fractionation, and reflectance spectroscopy (VNIR) has been implemented. Raman spectroscopy, highly desirable due to its wide availability, has the potential to improve this predictive power. This work implemented biosignature classification algorithms on Raman data alone, in preparation for combination with the other data types. Raman spectroscopy data was collected from published databases and papers as part of a manually curated dataset of “indicative” and “non-indicative of life” samples. These currently include 61 non-indicative samples (meteorites, magnetite); 3 indicative living samples (bacteria); 20 indicative non-living samples (chalk, bone); and 12 indicative mixed (with non-indicative material) samples (soil, microbial mats). Laboratory work is ongoing to characterize additional samples, particularly a greater breadth of mixed systems. Spectra were interpolated, filtered with the Savitzsky-Golay filter, and de-noised. For a preliminary examination, agnostic features were manually extracted including mean intensity, number of peaks, and mean peak width. Different peak prominences and filtering polynomials were used to refine features. Classification algorithms were implemented: k-nearest neighbors (KNN), logistic regression (LR), linear support vector machines (SVM), random forest (RF), Gaussian naïve bayes (GNB). Lastly, Monte Carlo simulations on 1,000 50%-train-test-splits were used to validate classification performance and feature significance. The preliminary feature set achieved its highest AUC of 0.52 with LR, with no strongly discriminatory features. Work to improve feature extraction, such as through deep learning with back propagation, is planned. In future work, the Raman data will be combined with the other data types, and potentially new data types such as enantiomeric excess. This project was partially supported through the NASA Ames Project EXcellence (APEX) incubator program.

Astrobiology↗

The Profiled Feldman-Cousins Method for Confidence Interval Construction for the Nova 3-Flavor Oscillation Analysis

The small interaction cross-section of neutrinos makes experimental neutrino physics particularly responsive to technological advancements. A significant development leveraged by the NOvA experiment is large-scale parallel processing, enabling novel computational approaches to longstanding experimental challenges. Central to managing the resulting high-throughput data is NOvA’s implementation of the Freight Train model, designed for efficient data production and handling.This dissertation details the methodology and execution of the NOvA 2024 3-Flavor Oscillation Analysis, supported by a comprehensive dataset spanning ten years. It emphasizes frequentist results refined through the Feldman-Cousins (FC) technique, specifically addressing confidence interval corrections in parameter estimation. The computational intensity associated with Feldman-Cousins arises from extensive Monte Carlo simulations, which were substantially mitigated through parallel computing on the Perlmutter supercomputer at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), employing the MPI framework.To further enhance computational efficiency, an Importance Sampling method is introduced and evaluated, demonstrating significant potential to reduce complexity, particularly in exploring extreme parameter space regions. This thesis presents both the successful application of advanced computational resources and the development of sophisticated statistical techniques, aiming to enhance the precision and scope of neutrino oscillation analyses.

Dye ajdye11190@gmail.com, Andrew Joseph [Mississip↗

Building confidence in models for complex barrier systems for radionuclides

The modeling and simulation of the Cement-clay Interaction-Diffusion field (CI-D) experiment at the Mont Terri site in Switzerland presented here demonstrates that it is possible to capture the multiscale physical and chemical features of natural and engineered barrier systems for radionuclides. The simulations are successfully carried out with the newly developed CrunchODiTi high-performance computing software that accounts for multiple continua, including a continuum representing the electrical double layer (EDL) developed along negatively charged clay particles in clay rock. The simulation also accounts for both the complex three-dimensional (3D) geometry, expected as the norm in a geological waste repository, and the anisotropy of the geological formation. In addition, the high resolution of the model makes it possible to include "skin effects" developed at the interface between highly reactive materials, in this case between the high pH cement and the circumneutral but electrostatic Opalinus Clay. The successful history matching with the field experiment demonstrates that the distinct geochemical and physical properties of the cement and the Opalinus Clay in the CI-D experiment can be accounted for. Such analyses are essential for developing a defensible safety case for the underground storage of radioactive waste.

Sarsenbayev, Dauren↗

Confident detection of doubly ionized thorium in the extreme Ap star CPD-62° 2717

Despite the Universe containing primordial thorium (Th) of sufficient abundance to appear in stellar spectra, detection of Th has to date been tentative and based on just a few weak and blended lines. Here, we present convincing evidence not only for the first Th detection in a magnetic chemically peculiar Ap star but also for the first detection of Th iii in a stellar spectrum. CPD-62° 2717 was initially recognized as a highly magnetized Ap star due to resolved magnetically split lines captured in H-band spectra from the SDSS/APOGEE survey. The star was subsequently pinpointed as extraordinarily peculiar when careful inspection of the H-band line content revealed the presence of five lines of Th iii, none of which are detected in the other ∼1500 APOGEE-observed Ap stars. Follow-up with the VLT + UVES confirmed a similarly peculiar optical spectrum featuring dozens of Th iii lines, among other peculiarities. Unlike past claims of Th detection, and owing to high-resolution observations of the strong (∼8–12 kG) magnetic field of CPD-62° 2717, the detection of Th iii can in this case be supported by matches between the observed and theoretical magnetic splitting patterns. Comparison of CPD-62° 2717 to stars for which Th overabundances have been previously reported (e.g. Przybylski’s Star) indicates that only for CPD-62° 2717 is the Th detection certain. Along with the focus on Th iii, we use time series measurements of the magnetic field modulus to constrain the rotation period of CPD-62° 2717 to ∼4.8 yr, thus establishing it as a new example of a superslowly rotating Ap star.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Demography, dynamics and data: building confidence for simulating changes in the world's forests

Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) are advanced tools for simulating forest responses to climate and land-use changes, and are essential for projecting carbon cycling and large-scale forest management strategies. Despite their increasing incorporation into Earth System Models, VDMs differ in their demographic assumptions, with no prior quantitative comparison of their performance. We benchmarked nine VDMs against observational data from boreal, temperate and tropical sites, assessing their accuracy in predicting tree growth, carbon turnover, biomass stocks and size distributions. Models were simulated under consistent climate conditions with postdisturbance recovery monitored for at least 420 yr. Postdisturbance carbon recovery trajectories showed significant variability while remaining within observational ranges. Initial regrowth rates varied substantially (0.03-0.60, 0.18-0.70 and 0.35-1.10 kgCm-2 yr-1 for boreal, temperate and tropical sites, respectively), influenced by each model's initial forest state. Models captured mature forest carbon content but showed compensating effects between overestimated growth and underestimated mortality rates. This first multi-model benchmarking identifies growth and mortality rates as critical calibration targets and highlights the need to refine postdisturbance establishment conditions for model development. We outline specific benchmarking variables needed to improve predictions of forest responses to environmental change.

demographic vegetation model benchmarking↗