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At least 109 records · Page 6

The simulated catalogue of optical transients and correlated hosts (SCOTCH)

ABSTRACT As we observe a rapidly growing number of astrophysical transients, we learn more about the diverse host galaxy environments in which they occur. Host galaxy information can be used to purify samples of cosmological Type Ia supernovae, uncover the progenitor systems of individual classes, and facilitate low-latency follow-up of rare and peculiar explosions. In this work, we develop a novel data-driven methodology to simulate the time-domain sky that includes detailed modelling of the probability density function for multiple transient classes conditioned on host galaxy magnitudes, colours, star formation rates, and masses. We have designed these simulations to optimize photometric classification and analysis in upcoming large synoptic surveys. We integrate host galaxy information into the snana simulation framework to construct the simulated catalogue of optical transients and correlated hosts (SCOTCH, a publicly available catalogue of 5-million idealized transient light curves in LSST passbands and their host galaxy properties over the redshift range 0 < z < 3. This catalogue includes supernovae, tidal disruption events, kilonovae, and active galactic nuclei. Each light curve consists of true top-of-the-galaxy magnitudes sampled with high (≲2 d) cadence. In conjunction with SCOTCH, we also release an associated set of tutorials and transient-specific libraries to enable simulations of arbitrary space- and ground-based surveys. Our methodology is being used to test critical science infrastructure in advance of surveys by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and the Nancy G. Roman Space Telescope.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Factors affecting powerhouse passage of spring migrant smolts at federally operated hydroelectric dams of the Snake and Columbia rivers

From 2008 to 2018, acoustic telemetry studies were conducted to evaluate dam passage survival of spring migrant Chinook salmon and steelhead smolts at seven of the eight federally operated dams on the lower Snake and Columbia rivers. Data from over 87 000 dam passage events were evaluated using regression modeling to identify the effect of spill operations, environmental conditions, and fish characteristics on powerhouse passage probability. In general, powerhouse passage was positively correlated with discharge, negatively correlated with forebay temperature and fish size, and higher for fish that passed the dam at night and for those that approached from the powerhouse side of the river, suggesting powerhouse passage is largely a function of smolt activity level and swimming ability. As such, spilling large volumes of water to reduce powerhouse passage is likely to be most effective during times of reduced activity and swimming ability (e.g., at night, high flows, and cold temperatures). This information can be used to develop dam- and time-specific spill operations that optimize smolt passage, power generation, and other competing demands, such as adult passage.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Coupling Thermal-Hydraulics with Reactor Pressure Vessel Fracture Models

Because of the importance of maintaining the integrity of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) in light-water reactors, significant effort has been devoted over the last several decades to understand the potential failure mechanisms, characterize how material properties evolve due to environmental conditions, and develop tools to assess the probability of fracture in aged RPVs during potential transient events. One important aspect of this problem that has not yet been fully addressed is the effects of nonuniform cooling on the RPV inner wall due to the way low-temperature water injected into the primary coolant system is distributed within the RPV during potential loss-of-coolant accident transients. Colder temperatures are expected in the regions near the inlets, causing a “cold-plume” effect. Rapid cooling of the RPV wall increases the likelihood of fracture initiation, and localized cooling due to cold-plume effects could potentially exacerbate this problem. The Grizzly code can perform a three-dimensional simulation of the RPV thermomechanical response as well as the probabilistic assessment of fracture for a population of pre-existing flaws, which is necessary to account for spatial variations in coolant temperature. This report documents a first effort to couple Grizzly RPV fracture models with computational fluid dynamics models performed using the Cardinal code, which allows for a realistic representation of the temperature distribution. This report demonstrates this coupling approach on two test cases: a simplified proof-of-concept scenario and a realistic small-break loss-of-coolant accident scenario. In both cases, the effects of the spatially varying temperature are evident; although, because the small-break loss-of-coolant accident scenario was far from challenging the RPV’s margins, it is still inconclusive how important cold-plume effects are in realistic accident scenarios. However, this effort represents an important step toward performing realistic analyses to determine to what extent spatially nonuniform cooling might affect RPV integrity under more aggressive accident scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Andrieslombaardite, RhSbS, a new platinum-group mineral from the platiniferous Onverwacht Pipe, Republic of South Africa

A hundred years after the discovery of the Merensky Reef in 1924, it is appropriate to present the new mineral andrieslombaardite in honour of Andries Frederik Lombaard who was instrumental in its discovery. Andrieslombaardite, RhSbS, was first described as an unknown mineral from placer deposits associated with the Tulameen Alaskan-Uralian type complex, British Colombia, Canada (Raicevic and Cabri, 1976) but has since been reported from several other deposits including the platiniferous Driekop, Mooihoek, and Onverwacht pipes in the eastern Bushveld Complex, South Africa. The mineral and the name were approved by the Commission on New Minerals Nomenclature and Classification (CNMNC) of the International Mineralogical Association (IMA no. 2022-076) based on data in the co-type samples from Onverwacht and a co-type sample from the Yubdo stream, Birbir River, Ethiopia. Andrieslombaardite in the Onverwacht sample is a single 8 x 20 μm grain attached to laurite in a matrix of altered silicate and Fe-oxyhydroxide minerals. In the Yubdo samples, there are many grains of pale brownish gray andrieslombaardite up to 25 x 55 μm in size, included in Pt-Fe alloys, some associated with erlichmanite, and others attached to bornite and chalcopyrite. The reflectance values (R%) measured in air and in oil at the COM wavelengths are 48.3 and 33.0 (470 nm), 49.3 and 34.0 (546 nm), 51.0 and 35.9 (589 nm), and 51.8 and 36.7 (650 nm). The colour values x, y, Y, λd, and Pe in air are 0.317, 0.322, 50.3, 580, and 3.2, and in oil are 0.319, 0.324, 35.6, 579, and 4.5. The composition of andrieslombaardite is ideally RhSbS, but it contains variable amounts of Fe, Pt, Pd, and Ir that may substitute for Rh. The mineral is cubic with unit-cell dimensions of a = 6.0278(4) Å, V = 219.01(6) Å 3 and Z = 4. It was synthesised at 400 and 550°C using stoichiometric elemental amounts. It is a member of the cobaltite group. The mineralisation of the intrusive dunite pipes was probably introduced at high temperatures, under magmatic conditions. The primary assemblages were to a certain degree overprinted and redistributed by low-temperature hydrothermal fluids. The Pt-Fe alloys from Yubdo containing PGM inclusions such as andrieslombaardite in the Yubdo-Alaskan-type complex were formed at some post-magmatic stage owing to PGE remobilisation during hydrothermal or metamorphic episodes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Rapid Generation of a Macroscopic Schrödinger Cat State of Atoms with Parity-Independent Orientation

We show that using the process of one-axis-twist squeezing in an echo configuration, it is possible to control the orientation of the macroscopic magnetic moment of a large number of atoms by manipulating the quantum state of a single atom that is physically isolated from the ensemble. With this control technique, it is also possible to entangle an ensemble with a single atom deterministically, which mimics the thought experiment known as the Schrödinger cat. In addition, this technique would make it possible to generate a mesoscopic Schrödinger cat state for a large number of atoms far more rapidly that the conventional process for generating such a state, with an orientation that is independent of the parity of the number of atoms. Apart from the echo configuration, we have also investigated the behavior of one-axis-twist squeezing for some special values of the squeezing parameter. We find that the squeezing propagator can be expressed as the sum of n rotation operators if the product of n and the squeezing parameter equals pi, where n is a non-zero integer. A direct consequence of this property of one-axis-twist squeezing is that there is a hidden order in a squeezed state generated under this condition even if its Husimi quasi-probability distribution looks irregular.

Li, Jinyang↗

Machine learning assisted bayesian inference of mix and hot-spot conditions in NIF implosions

Experiments on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) have provided clear evidence of ablator material mixing into the Hot-Spot, leading to degraded performance. However, inferring the amount of mix and Hot-Spot conditions from typical experimental observations (e.g. x-ray spectra and images) is highly challenging. Here, we have developed an analysis method that utilizes machine learning assisted Bayesian inference to find the probability distributions of the Hot-Spot and mix conditions. This approach uses a neural network, trained on an idealized 2-dimensional representation of the Hot-Spot and mix distribution, and Bayesian inference to find the statistical distributions of Hot-Spot conditions that provide a match with observations. We have tested this method with synthetic data from simulations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Eulerian three-fluid flow framework for the study of fuel dispersal behavior under loss-of-coolant accident conditions

As the nuclear industry explores new fuel designs to accommodate increased burnup, studying fuel behavior during loss-of-coolant accidents is essential for ensuring the safe operation of light-water reactors. Here, this study presents a computational model to simulate the intricate three-phase flow dynamics of fuel dispersal following cladding breach, where solid fuel particles and carrier fission gases interact with the surrounding liquid or gas medium. The model utilizes a Eulerian three-fluid framework to depict the phase interaction within interpenetrating continua, treating fragmented fuel as granular material. Closure relationships for bulk-flow properties of the solid phase and detailed interfacial exchange terms in high-temperature, high-speed gas-solid-liquid flow scenarios are proposed. The model was validated using adiabatic experimental results in the literature, focusing on characterizing fuel dispersal behavior during loss-of-coolant accidents conditions. Settlement characteristics of the solids, quantified by the probability distribution of equivalent particles, closely matched probability density functions reported in experimental studies. Key highlights of this study include the theoretical description of a coupled three-phase flow with phase change, interpretation of the high-pressure boundary conditions and insights into the transient behavior of gas-solid-liquid phase dynamics during a simulated high-speed dispersal event.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Modeling and Simulation of Fuel Dispersal During the Loss-of-Coolant Accident

This document is the compilation of the milestone portion to a larger end of project NEUP report. The executive summary of the modeling portion is provided below: In the event of cladding rupture during a postulated LOCA in a pressurized water reactor, fuel particles, along with fission gases, can be expelled into the reactor core from the fractured fuel rod, a phenomenon referred to as fuel dispersal. The initial stage of fuel dispersal is strongly influenced by the high-pressure ejection of fuel fragments, the size and geometry of the ruptured cladding, and the depressurization history of the fuel rod during the postulated LOCA transient. Depending on the location of the burst orifice relative to the quench front, the dispersal event represents an intricate three-phase flow and heat transfer phenomenon, where high-temperature fuel particles carried by the fission gases interact with the coolant within the narrow subchannels of the fuel assemblies, inducing localized phase change. Given the unique multiphysics nature of this phenomena, the current study develops a dedicated computational framework to predict the mass distribution and cooling of dispersing fuel particles, facilitating post-accident assessment and management of the fuel assemblies. Considering the scale of nuclear reactor applications, a continuum three-fluid model is proposed for simulating the transport of solids within the reactor core. With high-temperature fuel fragments within the liquid media, nucleation sites inducing phase changes are dispersed within the flow domain. Coupled with the fact that the transient dispersal event occurs on different time scales than other three-phase flow applications, this study derives a time-averaged three-fluid flow model without losing generality. The assumptions regarding the continuum treatment of the solid phase and the modeling of fuel dispersal behavior are incorporated to simplify the governing equations and derive applicable closure relations. The computational validation of the model was conducted using adiabatic experimental results obtained from ongoing research at Oregon State University, focusing on characterizing fuel dispersal behavior during simulated LOCA conditions. Settlement characteristics of the solids, quantified by the probability distribution of equivalent particles, closely matched the probability density functions reported in experimental studies. The transport of fuel particles within a scaled 5 × 5 lattice of a pressurized-water reactor rod bundle geometry was modeled through a two-fluid Eulerian framework. The required boundary conditions were evaluated from the fuel performance code BISON in a postulated large-break LOCA scenario. The modeling framework considered solid fuel particles as granular matter, interacting with the gaseous dry steam phase and fission gases through the governing interfacial momentum exchange between the participating fluids. The simulation results provided the volume fraction of the solids obtained at the bottom surface of the enclosing tank geometry. Postulated LOCA leading to fuel dispersal phenomena involves the strong coupling between fuel thermomechanics, cladding deformation, thermal-hydraulics, and fuel particle transport. Incorporation of such a strong coupling in numerical simulation is performed by coupling the multiphysics solvers. In the case of fuel dispersal, a strong coupled simulation can be performed by coupling the BISON code for fuel performance, the TRACE code for system-level thermal hydraulics, and fuel particle transport in Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). For such intricate infrastructure, the MOOSE Framework eases the data transfer between codes. The recent version of MOOSE has incorporated the Navier-Stokes module for the fluid flow. An exploratory exercise was done to gain familiarity with finite volume capabilities in the MOOSE framework to incorporate the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence model. New finite-volume and auxiliary kernels were introduced to assemble the SA transport equation, compute turbulent viscosity, and evaluate wall distance and diagnostic turbulence terms, fully integrated with existing Navier-Stokes modules. A turbulent lid-driven cavity at a Reynolds number of approximately 10,000 is used for verification. MOOSE shows the robust solver convergence and produces the turbulent features. But it underpredicts the velocity profile and turbulent quantities, emphasizing the need to develop improved SA near-wall treatments (e.g., low-Re corrections or wall functions) as a key direction for future work.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A probabilistic-phase field model for the fracture of brittle materials

Abstract We develop a computational method to determine the failure probability of brittle materials under general mechanical loading conditions. The method is a combination of two parts: (1) numerical simulations of materials with multiple cracks using phase field theory, where the complete fracture process is viewed as ‘damage percolation’ along critical paths or clusters of cracks, rather than the traditional weak-link failure mechanism of Weibull, and (2) an extension of the Batdorf statistical theory of fracture to finite domains, where it is implemented within the finite element framework. The results of phase-field simulations at the ‘percolation threshold’ are used as failure data in the Batdorf theory to determine the overall probability of failure. The input to this approach is the size distribution of cracks in a pristine material. An example is shown, where alumina samples that were previously tested by Abe and coworkers (Abeet al2003J. Am. Ceram. Soc.861019–21) in four-point loading are compared to the results of our numerical simulations. The approach developed here has the advantage of being extendable to more complex thermomechanical loading.

Materials Science↗

Management of Risks Associated with Application of Novel Materials in Novel Operating Environments in Novel Reactor Designs

There is currently no widely agreed, detailed general method for licensing a novel plant incorporating novel materials (or materials being deployed in novel environments); in many such situations, there are no directly applicable engineering code cases for decision-makers (including regulators) to rely on. This paper discusses a framework for solving this problem that is based on the Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) approach delineated in ASME BPVC Section XI Division 2. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.246, Rev. 0, endorses, with conditions, the subject portion of the ASME Code. The proposed framework is meant to support development of a licensing case by addressing certain technical challenges. The framework discussed here is compatible with the Licensing Modernization Project, but applying it in a specific case will call for advances in the state of practice, if not the state of the art. The RIM approach calls for applicants to (a) allocate reliability targets to plant structures, systems, and components (SSCs), (b) show that they are able to relate the currently observed physical condition of each SSC in the program to its failure probability well enough to determine whether the target reliability allocations are being satisfied, allowing for uncertainty related to the novelty of the materials/designs/operating environments, and (c) be able to demonstrate that the proposed program of surveillances will reliably detect unacceptable degradation of an SSC before SSC failure occurs. These challenges are discussed in the paper, and a potentially applicable modeling approach based on cumulative damage rather than failure rates is briefly illustrated.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Parametric evaluation of ducted fuel injection in an optically accessible mixing-controlled compression-ignition engine with two- and four-duct assemblies

Ducted fuel injection (DFI) is a strategy to improve fuel/charge-gas mixing in direct-injection compression-ignition engines. DFI involves injecting fuel along the axis of a small tube in the combustion chamber, which promotes the formation of locally leaner mixtures in the autoignition zone relative to conventional diesel combustion. Previous work has demonstrated that DFI is effective at curtailing engine-out soot emissions across a wide range of operating conditions. This study extends previous investigations, presenting engine-out emissions and efficiency trends between ducted two-orifice and ducted four-orifice injector tip configurations. For each configuration, parameters investigated include injection pressure, injection duration, intake manifold pressure, intake manifold temperature, start of combustion timing, and intake-oxygen mole fraction. For both configurations and across all parameters, DFI reduced engine-out soot emissions compared to conventional diesel combustion, with little effect on other emissions and engine efficiency. Emissions trends for both configurations were qualitatively the same across the parameters investigated. The four-duct configuration had higher thermal efficiency and indicated-specific engine-out nitrogen oxide emissions but lower indicated-specific engine-out hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions than the two-duct assembly. Both configurations achieved indicated-specific engine-out emissions for both soot and nitrogen oxides that comply with current on- and off-road heavy-duty regulations in the United States without exhaust-gas aftertreatment at an intake-oxygen mole fraction of 12%. High-speed in-cylinder imaging of natural soot luminosity shows that some conditions include a second soot-production phase late in the cycle. The probability of these late-cycle events is sensitive to both the number of ducted sprays and the operating conditions.

Yraguen, Boni Frances↗

Classification and Fusion of Two Disparate Data Streams and Nuclear Dissolutions Application

We consider two streams of data or measurements with disparate qualities and time resolutions that need to be classified. The first stream consists of higher quality data at a coarser time resolution, and the other consists of lower quality data at a finer time resolution. We present a fuser-switch method that fuses the set of classifiers of each stream separately and switches between them. We show that this method provides classification decisions at a finer time resolution with superior detection and false alarm probabilities compared to individual classifiers, under the statistical independence and time resolution ratio conditions. When classifiers are trained using machine learning methods, we show that this superior performance is guaranteed with a confidence probability specified by the classifiers' generalization equations. We use these results to provide analytical foundations for previous practical results that achieved significant performance improvements in classifying Pu/Np target dissolution events at a radiochemical processing facility.

Rao, Nageswara↗

Deep Learning-Based Weather-Related Power Outage Prediction with Socio-Economic and Power Infrastructure Data

This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for hourly power outage probability prediction within census tracts encompassing a utility company's service territory. Two distinct deep learning models, conditional Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and unconditional MLP, were developed to forecast power outage probabilities, leveraging a rich array of input features gathered from publicly available sources including weather data, weather station locations, power infrastructure maps, socio-economic and demographic statistics, and power outage records. Given a one-hour-ahead weather forecast, the models predict the power outage probability for each census tract, taking into account both the weather prediction and the location's characteristics. The deep learning models employed different loss functions to optimize prediction performance. Our experimental results underscore the significance of socio-economic factors in enhancing the accuracy of power outage predictions at the census tract level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations

Societally relevant weather impacts typically result from compound events, which are rare combinations of weather and climate drivers. Focussing on four event types arising from different combinations of climate variables across space and time, here we illustrate that robust analyses of compound events — such as frequency and uncertainty analysis under present-day and future conditions, event attribution to climate change, and exploration of low-probability-high-impact events — require data with very large sample size. In particular, the required sample is much larger than that needed for analyses of univariate extremes. We demonstrate that Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensemble (SMILE) simulations from multiple climate models, which provide hundreds to thousands of years of weather conditions, are crucial for advancing our assessments of compound events and constructing robust model projections. Combining SMILEs with an improved physical understanding of compound events will ultimately provide practitioners and stakeholders with the best available information on climate risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Joint Modeling of Wind Speed and Wind Direction Through a Conditional Approach

Atmospheric near surface wind speed and wind direction play an important role in many applications, ranging from air quality modeling, building design, wind turbine placement to climate change research. It is therefore crucial to accurately estimate the joint probability distribution of wind speed and direction. In this work, we develop a conditional approach to model these two variables, where the joint distribution is decomposed into the product of the marginal distribution of wind direction and the conditional distribution of wind speed given wind direction. To accommodate the circular nature of wind direction, a von Mises mixture model is used; the conditional wind speed distribution is modeled as a directional dependent Weibull distribution via a two-stage estimation procedure, consisting of a directional binned Weibull parameter estimation, followed by a harmonic regression to estimate the dependence of the Weibull parameters on wind direction. A Monte Carlo simulation study indicates that our method outperforms two other approaches in estimation efficiency: one that utilizes periodic spline quantile regression and another that generates data from the commonly used Abe-Ley distribution for cylindrical data. We illustrate our method by using the output from a regional climate model to investigate how the joint distribution of wind speed and direction may change under some future climate scenarios. Our method indicates significant changes in the variation of wind speed with respect to some directions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Physics-informed Bayesian machine learning case study: Integral blade rotors

This paper provides a physics-informed Bayesian machine learning (PIBML) description and case study. The PIBML approach applies three physics-based models to establish the initial beliefs before testing to determine the probability of milling stability (or prior). These include: receptance coupling substructure analysis (RCSA) prediction for the tool tip frequency response functions; finite element software prediction of the mechanistic force model coefficients; and a spindle speed-dependent power law model for process damping. Testing was then performed to identify optimal stable machining conditions using an expected improvement in material removal rate criterion. The prior probability of stability was updated using the test results to determine the posterior probability of stability. The test results were compared to the parameter recommendations provided by the endmill manufacturer. A demonstration integral blade rotor was machined at the optimal stable machining conditions for 304 stainless steel and 6061-T6 aluminum. Finally, the disagreement between manufacturer recommendations and milling performance in both materials tested emphasizes the need for broad implementation of PIBML approaches to increase machining productivity and efficiency.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Dolomites in hydrated fine-grained Antarctic micrometeorites: Effective tools for analyzing secondary processes

We report detailed transmission electron microscope (TEM) observations of carbonates from one hydrated fine-grained Antarctic micrometeorite (H-FgMM). These carbonates show the occurrence of complex chemical variations and microstructures that provide important evidence regarding the formation and evolution of rarely analyzed H-FgMMs. The chemical variations were identified at both micrometer and nanometer scales, indicating that these carbonates formed under localized fluid conditions that suggest a variable chemical microenvironment. Individual carbonates grew from isolated reservoirs of fluid. Moreover, these carbonates contain manganese amounts almost twice as high as those measured in CM chondrites but similar to those identified in CI chondrites. Their particular compositions indicate reducing and progressively evolving conditions in the fluid from which these carbonates precipitated, probably due to water consumption during phyllosilicates formation. In addition to the compositional variability, microstructural features are pervasive in these carbonates, similar to those described in heavily shocked meteorites indicating that these carbonates were probably modified during shock processes after their formation. Since carbonates are highly susceptible to shock metamorphism, we suggest that it is essential to investigate their structure in detail before interpreting the isotopic measurements related to the time of their formation. Additionally, associated with carbonates, ubiquitous phosphates were identified in the micrometeorite analyzed. Future studies of these mineral associations will provide us further insight into the formation and evolution of asteroids, especially since they were both identified in the surface materials of Ryugu and Bennu.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Ocean internal tides suppress tropical cyclones in the South China Sea

Abstract Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are devastating natural disasters. Analyzing four decades of global TC data, here we find that among all global TC-active basins, the South China Sea (SCS) stands out as particularly difficult ocean for TCs to intensify, despite favorable atmosphere and ocean conditions. Over the SCS, TC intensification rate and its probability for a rapid intensification (intensification by ≥ 15.4 m s −1 day −1 ) are only 1/2 and 1/3, respectively, of those for the rest of the world ocean. Originating from complex interplays between astronomic tides and the SCS topography, gigantic ocean internal tides interact with TC-generated oceanic near-inertial waves and induce a strong ocean cooling effect, suppressing the TC intensification. Inclusion of this interaction between internal tides and TC in operational weather prediction systems is expected to improve forecast of TC intensity in the SCS and in other regions where strong internal tides are present.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗