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At least 109 records · Page 6

De-risking superhot EGS development through 3D play fairway analysis: Methodology development and application at Newberry Volcano, Oregon, USA

The DErisking Exploration for multiple geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments (DEEPEN) project aims to de-risk exploration of geothermal plays in magmatic systems, with a focus on superhot and supercritical geothermal systems. This article presents advancements in geoscientific assessment of superhot enhanced geothermal system (EGS) resources as part of the DEEPEN project, particularly in exploration and identification of these systems. While there exists a general consensus on key components of conventional hydrothermal systems, there has not been a prior consensus on such components for EGS, let alone superhot EGS. The DEEPEN project identified these key components for superhot EGS plays, and used them to modify the traditional geothermal play fairway analysis (PFA) approach to identify favorable areas in superhot EGS plays in 3D. This was done through modeling both favorability and uncertainty separately for each key component of a superhot EGS play, incorporating diverse 3D geoscientific datasets, including geologic features, models produced from direct observations, single inversions, and joint inversions. The PFA is applied to Newberry Volcano as a form of validation. Finally, the results appear to validate the methodology, aligning with expectations derived from conceptual modeling, and highlighting the area targeted for EGS stimulation well NWG 55-29 as favorable, and suggesting potential additional areas worthy of exploration at Newberry.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Revisiting ENSO and IOD Contributions to Australian Precipitation

Tropical modes of variability, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), exert a strong influence on the interannual variability of Australian precipitation. Nevertheless, commonly used indices of ENSO and IOD variability display significant co-variability that prevents a robust quantification of the independent contribution of each mode to precipitation anomalies. This co-variability issue is often addressed by statistically removing ENSO or IOD variability from the precipitation field before calculating teleconnection patterns. However, by performing a suite of coupled and uncoupled modeling experiments in which either ENSO or IOD variability is physically removed, we show that ENSO-only-driven precipitation patterns computed by statistically removing the IOD influence significantly underestimate the impact of ENSO on Australian precipitation variability. Here, inspired by this, we propose a conceptual model that allows one to effectively separate the contribution of each mode to Australian precipitation variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Consideration of Initial Cloud Droplet Size Distribution Shapes in Quantifying Different Entrainment-Mixing Mechanisms

Entrainment-mixing process significantly affects cloud micro/macrophysics and the evaluation of aerosol indirect effects. However, it remains an open question as to how to quantify entrainment-mixing mechanism for broad cloud droplet size distributions (CDSDs). Here, CDSDs with different spectral widths are used to initialize the Explicit Mixing Parcel Model to address this problem, and microphysical properties are compared for different CDSD widths. For relatively broad CDSDs, as the number concentration and liquid water content decrease, the volume-mean radius and mean radius increase, which is opposite to the scenario for relatively narrow CDSDs and the homogeneous/inhomogeneous conceptual model. For the relatively broad CDSDs, such relationships could be mistaken as inhomogeneous mixing with subsequent ascent in analysis of the conventional microphysical mixing diagram. This then causes traditional homogenous mixing degrees to be unrealistically negative and not applicable for relatively broad CDSDs. New measures are introduced to explicitly account for the effect of CDSD spectral shapes on quantifying entrainment-mixing mechanism. The new measures yield reasonable ranges of values that conform to the dynamical measures such as the Damköhler and transitional scale numbers, and their temporal variation can be explained physically. This study extends the measures of homogeneous mixing degrees from narrow to broad CDSDs, and sheds new light on the consideration of CDSD shapes in parameterizations of entrainment-mixing mechanism.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DECOVALEX-2023, Task F Specification, Revision 8

This report is the revised (Revision 8) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation. Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both of the reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Localized corrosion: Passive film breakdown vs. Pit growth stability, Part VI: Pit dissolution kinetics of different alloys and a model for pitting and repassivation potentials

Here, the pitting resistance of SS316L, SS304, SS430, and pure Fe was studied in chloride-containing solution. Among these alloys, SS316L exhibits the highest pit initiation rate, but also the highest pitting potential. To explain this phenomenon, the maximum pit dissolution current density (i diss,max ) of the alloys in saturated pit solution was measured using one-dimensional artificial pit electrodes. A lower i diss,max was found to correlate with higher pitting and repassivation potentials. Based on a recently proposed pitting framework, a conceptual model for pitting and repassivation potentials was established, based on which the effect of i diss,max on pitting resistance was discussed.

one-dimensional artificial pit electrode↗

DECOVALEX-2023 Task F Specification (Rev. 9)

This report is the revised (Revision 9) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock (Task F1) and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation (Task F2). Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DECOVALEX-2023: Task F Specification (Revision 10)

This report is the revised (Revision 10) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock (Task F1) and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation (Task F2). Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The ecological assembly of bacterial communities in Antarctic wetlands varies across levels of phylogenetic resolution

Summary As functional traits are conserved at different phylogenetic depths, the ability to detect community assembly processes can be conditional on the phylogenetic resolution; yet most previous work quantifying their influence has focused on a single level of phylogenetic resolution. Here, we have studied the ecological assembly of bacterial communities from an Antarctic wetland complex, applying null models across different levels of phylogenetic resolution (i.e. clustering ASVs into OTUs with decreasing sequence identity thresholds). We found that the relative influence of the community assembly processes varies with phylogenetic resolution. More specifically, selection processes seem to impose stronger influence at finer (100% sequence similarity ASV) than at coarser (99%–97% sequence similarity OTUs) resolution. We identified environmental features related with the ecological processes and propose a conceptual model for the bacterial community assembly in this Antarctic ecosystem. Briefly, eco‐evolutionary processes appear to be leading to different but very closely related ASVs in lotic, lentic and terrestrial environments. In all, this study shows that assessing community assembly processes at different phylogenetic resolutions is key to improve our understanding of microbial ecology. More importantly, a failure to detect selection processes at coarser phylogenetic resolution does not imply the absence of such processes at finer resolutions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Stratigraphic Identification with Airborne Electromagnetic Methods at the Hanford Site, Washington

Stratigraphic units can influence the fate and transport of subsurface contaminants within groundwater. Units having coarse-grained sediments act as preferential flow pathways, and therefore can accelerate the transport of contaminants to reach human and ecological receptors. At legacy waste sites, detailed knowledge of subsurface stratigraphy can be used for effective monitoring and remediation planning to help minimize risk to human health and the environment. Airborne electromagnetic (AEM) methods can non-invasively provide information on kilometer-scale or larger subsurface stratigraphic features and fill informational gaps in directly sampled data from sparsely located boreholes. In this paper, we present inversion results of a 412 line-km frequency-domain AEM survey to delineate subsurface stratigraphic features at the Hanford Site, located in southeastern Washington State. The inversion was performed using a massively parallel 3D electromagnetic modeling and inversion code, where the modeling is based on solving frequency-domain Maxwell’s equations using an unstructured-mesh finite-element method and the inversion employs a Gauss-Newton optimization scheme. The results are compared to an underlying geologic framework model (GFM), built by interpolating contact depths of stratigraphic units interpreted from site borehole datasets. In areas with good borehole coverage, the inversion results show a good match with the GFM to a depth of about 60 m. Outside of these areas, the inversion results exhibit inconsistencies from the assumptions made to create the GFM, demonstrating that the AEM survey results can be used to improve the understanding of the geological conceptual model.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Organic molecules are deterministically assembled in variably inundated river sediments, but drivers remain unclear

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is central to ecosystem function. A fundamental challenge is understanding the processes leading to variation in the chemistry of organic molecules that comprise DOM. Here we study these processes in variably inundated riverbed sediments, as an understudied, yet ubiquitous component of rivers. Using null-model approaches adopted from community ecology, we found that within-site variation in environmental conditions caused non-random (i.e., deterministic) shifts in DOM chemistry. Deterministic shifts were observed across diverse biomes, though the strength of determinism varied substantially. We found that the strength of determinism decreased with increasing sediment moisture, but in the form of a constraint space. Many systems fell below the upper constraint boundary, however. We propose a conceptual model based on our results and other publications in which DOM assemblages are hypothesized to be increasingly deterministic across the continuum from the river water column to saturated sediment pore spaces to unsaturated and dry soils/sediments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Active layer depth and soil properties impact specific leaf area variation and ecosystem productivity in a boreal forest

Specific leaf area (SLA, leaf area per unit dry mass) is a key canopy structural characteristic, a measure of photosynthetic capacity, and an important input into many terrestrial process models. Although many studies have examined SLA variation, relatively few data exist from high latitude, climate-sensitive permafrost regions. We measured SLA and soil and topographic properties across a boreal forest permafrost transition, in which dominant tree species changed as permafrost deepened from 54 to >150 cm over 75 m hillslope transects in Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed, Alaska. We characterized both linear and threshold relationships between topographic and edaphic variables and SLA and developed a conceptual model of these relationships. We found that the depth of the soil active layer above permafrost was significantly and positively correlated with SLA for both coniferous and deciduous boreal tree species. Intraspecific SLA variation was associated with a fivefold increase in net primary production, suggesting that changes in active layer depth due to permafrost thaw could strongly influence ecosystem productivity. While this is an exploratory study to begin understanding SLA variation in a non-contiguous permafrost system, our results indicate the need for more extensive evaluation across larger spatial domains. These empirical relationships and associated uncertainty can be incorporated into ecosystem models that use dynamic traits, improving our ability to predict ecosystem-level carbon cycling responses to ongoing climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Steptoe Valley NV Data Compilation: Understanding a Stratigraphic Hydrothermal Resource through Geophysical Imaging

Sandia National Laboratories partnered with a multi-disciplinary group of subject matter experts to evaluate a stratigraphic geothermal resource in Steptoe Valley, Nevada using both established and novel geophysical imaging techniques. Provided here are a compilation of newly acquired data over the area and select modeling efforts. This encompasses a 3D geological model (inclusive of full Leapfrog files, Leapfrog viewer files, and XYZ data for faults and stratigraphy) with embedded geophysical modeling, controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) and magnetotelluric (MT) data packages, aqueous spring geochemistry data, seismic reflection interpretations, and a gravity data package. The stratigraphic reservoir in Steptoe Valley was previously discovered during oil and gas exploration. Subsequent studies, such as the Nevada Play Fairway Analysis, added data which further highlighted potential resource targets in the basin. Geophysical surveys, complimented with refined geologic mapping and geochemical sampling, were deployed to further characterize the resource. The resulting 3D geologic interpretation, conceptual model refinements, and reservoir simulations suggest that a power-capable reservoir is economically accessible in the Paleozoic carbonates of the deep/central basin. Additional geophysical characterization and exploration drilling efforts are recommended to calibrate interpretation and determine where/how to potentially develop the Steptoe resource. The geophysical tools, interpretations, lessons learned, and publicly available data generated by this study establish an exploration methodology to inform decisions for successful development of stratigraphic reservoirs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Respiration data, microbial community assembly data, and FTICR-MS data associated with: “Disturbance Triggers Non-Linear Microbe-Environment Feedbacks. Sengupta et al., 2021, Biogeosciences”

This data package is associated with the manuscript “Disturbance Triggers Non-Linear Microbe-Environment Feedbacks, in revision in Biogeosciences (Sengupta et al. and 2021;https://bg.copernicus.org/preprints/bg-2021-51/). The study used hyporheic zone sediments as a model system to provide an integrated view of how disturbance modulates linkages among microbial ecology, biogeochemistry, and organic matter thermodynamics. Laboratory experiments exposed hyporheic sediment to varying wetting/drying dynamics. Data types include dissolved oxygen rates used to derive respiration rates, Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data used to derive thermodynamic properties of organic matter, and microbial community assembly metrics derived from amplicon-sequence data of putatively active (cDNA) and whole community (gDNA). The outcomes of the study are condensed into a broadly applicable conceptual model linking external forcing, internal dynamics, and history. This data package is comprised of a file-level metadata (FLMD) csv, metadata csv, and seven folders that contain csv files, R scripts, xml files, and associated documentation: (1) Rates, (2) bNTI, and (3) FTICR, (4) Statistics_Analyses, (5) Raw OTU Beta dispersion Analysis, (6) bMNTD Randomizations, and (7) Data Dictionaries. The FLMD file has a description of each file included in the data package.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanism Across Scales: A Holistic Modeling Framework Integrating Laboratory and Field Studies for Microbial Ecology

Over the last century, leaps in technology for imaging, sampling, detection, high-throughput sequencing, and -omics analyses have revolutionized microbial ecology to enable rapid acquisition of extensive datasets for microbial communities across the ever-increasing temporal and spatial scales. The present challenge is capitalizing on our enhanced abilities of observation and integrating diverse data types from different scales, resolutions, and disciplines to reach a causal and mechanistic understanding of how microbial communities transform and respond to perturbations in the environment. This type of causal and mechanistic understanding will make predictions of microbial community behavior more robust and actionable in addressing microbially mediated global problems. To discern drivers of microbial community assembly and function, we recognize the need for a conceptual, quantitative framework that connects measurements of genomic potential, the environment, and ecological and physical forces to rates of microbial growth at specific locations. We describe the Framework for Integrated, Conceptual, and Systematic Microbial Ecology (FICSME), an experimental design framework for conducting process-focused microbial ecology studies that incorporates biological, chemical, and physical drivers of a microbial system into a conceptual model. Through iterative cycles that advance our understanding of the coupling across scales and processes, we can reliably predict how perturbations to microbial systems impact ecosystem-scale processes or vice versa. We describe an approach and potential applications for using the FICSME to elucidate the mechanisms of globally important ecological and physical processes, toward attaining the goal of predicting the structure and function of microbial communities in chemically complex natural environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal insulation versus capacitance: A simulation experiment comparing effects of shade and hyporheic exchange on daily and seasonal stream temperature cycles

In streams where water temperatures stress native biota, management of riparian shade or hyporheic exchange are both considered viable management strategies for reducing the peaks of daily and seasonal stream channel temperature cycles. Although shade and hyporheic exchange may have similar effects on stream temperatures, their mechanisms differ. Improved understanding of the heat-exchange mechanisms influenced by shade and hyporheic exchange will aid in the appropriate application of either stream temperature management strategy. To illustrate a conceptual model highlighting shade as ‘thermal insulation’ and hyporheic exchange imparting ‘thermal capacitance’ to a stream reach, we conducted an in-silico simulation modelling experiment increasing shade or hyporheic exchange parameters on an idealized, hypothetical stream. We assessed the potential effects of increasing shade or hyporheic exchange on a stream reach using an established process-based heat-energy budget model of stream-atmosphere heat exchange and incorporated an advection-driven hyporheic heat exchange routine. The model tracked heat transport through the hyporheic zone and exchange with the stream channel, while including the effects of hyporheic water age distribution on upwelling hyporheic temperatures. Results showed that shade and hyporheic exchange similarly damped diurnal temperature cycles and differentially altered seasonal cycles of our theoretical stream. In winter, hyporheic exchange warmed simulated channel temperatures whereas shade had little effect. In summer, both shade and hyporheic exchange cooled channel temperatures, though the effects of shade were more pronounced. Our simple-to-grasp analogies of ‘thermal insulation’ for shade effects and ‘thermal capacitance’ for hyporheic exchange effects on stream temperature encourage more accurate conceptualization of complex, dynamic heat exchange processes among the atmosphere, stream channel, and alluvial aquifer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic Rupture Simulations of Caldera Collapse Earthquakes: Effects of Wave Radiation, Magma Viscosity, and Evidence of Complex Nucleation at Kilauea 2018

All instrumented basaltic caldera collapses have generated M w > 5 very long period earthquakes. However, previous studies of source dynamics have been limited to lumped models treating the caldera block as rigid, leaving open questions related to how ruptures initiate and propagate around the ring fault, and the seismic expressions of those dynamics. Here, we present the first 3D numerical model capturing the nucleation and propagation of ring fault rupture, the mechanical coupling to the underlying viscoelastic magma, and the associated seismic wavefield. We demonstrate that seismic radiation, neglected in previous models, acts as a damping mechanism reducing coseismic slip by up to half, with effects most pronounced for large magma chamber volume/ring fault radius or highly compliant crust/compressible magma. Viscosity of basaltic magma has negligible effect on collapse dynamics. In contrast, viscosity of silicic magma significantly reduces ring fault slip. We use the model to simulate the 2018 Kilauea caldera collapse. Three stages of collapse, characterized by ring fault rupture initiation and propagation, deceleration of the downward-moving caldera block and magma column, and post-collapse resonant oscillations, in addition to chamber pressurization, are identified in simulated and observed (unfiltered) near-field seismograms. A detailed comparison of simulated and observed displacement waveforms corresponding to collapse earthquakes with hypocenters at various azimuths of the ring fault reveals a complex nucleation phase for earthquakes initiated on the northwest. Our numerical simulation framework will enhance future efforts to reconcile seismic and geodetic observations of caldera collapse with conceptual models of ring fault and magma chamber dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Convergence of Cloud Droplet Spectral Relative Dispersion During Entrainment‐Mixing Based on Particle‐Resolved Direct Numerical Simulations

Entrainment-mixing processes critically impact cloud microphysical properties, but their effects on the relative dispersion (d) of cloud droplet size distributions (CDSDs) remain elusive. A direct numerical simulation model is initialized with different CDSDs to fill the gap. These results show that d decreases for broad CDSDs and increases for narrow ones, ultimately converging to approximately 0.5 regardless of initial CDSDs during the evaporation-dominated mixing stage. The supersaturation fluctuation and the shape of CDSDs jointly influence the convergence behavior of d. Further sensitivity tests show that the initial microphysical/dynamical/thermodynamical conditions exert negligible effects on the final converged value of d but affect the convergence rate (k). The k generally increases with increasing droplet number concentration and dissipation rate, and increases with decreasing liquid water content, relative humidity of entrained air, and mixing fraction of cloudy air. A conceptual model with two timescales is proposed; k and the timescales are negatively correlated, meaning that slow mixing and/or evaporation process results in slow convergence of d. In conclusion, this finding provides an important reference for improving understanding and parameterization of d during the entrainment-mixing processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ordovician-Cambrian Units: Hierarchical Evaluation of Geologic Carbon Storage Resource Estimates

The Indiana Geological and Water Survey (IGWS) led subtask 1.1 to assess the regional distribution and estimate the storage capacity of Ordovician-Cambrian stratigraphic units located within the partnership region. A comprehensive data set of wireline logs and petrophysical information was used to generate these interpretations. These data include core analysis for porosity and permeability, mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP), and existing well data including location and stratigraphic information. This report includes storage resource estimates (SREs) for three potential storage reservoirs(limestone and dolostone from the Upper Ordovician Trenton Limestone/Black River Group and equivalent units, the Middle Ordovician St. Peter Sandstone, and primary target reservoir rocks of the Lower Ordovician and Upper Cambrian Knox Supergroup and equivalent units) calculated using six methodologies: (1) a fixed value of porosity of 10 percent in all units evaluated; (2) a unique average porosity (per well) from wireline-derived porosity (neutron, sonic, and/or density porosity for each unit); (3) porosity values from core analysis; (4) a depth-dependent porosity model (Knox Supergroup only); (5) porosity based on a model based on petrophysical facies; and (6) SREs using National Energy Technology Laboratory’s CO2 Storage prospeCtive Resource Estimation Excel aNalysis (CO2-SCREEN beta V2). All methods used the same values for thickness for each unit. However, the areal extent of each assessment was limited by the data available for each method. Estimated volumes were calculated in 1-by-1 kilometer grid cells and summarized as county and total stratigraphic unit volumes. The resultant SREs mass are displayed using boxplots, which allow for comparing data statistics (mean values and variability) between methods. Differences observed in SRE results from the six methods are mainly attributable to differences in the data and conceptual models used to interpret or estimate porosity in each method. Based on this systematic variability between methods, it is inferred that methods 1, 4, and 6 are best used for regional-scale reconnaissance estimates of storage capacity while methods 2, 3, and 5 are more appropriate for local scales where more data is required. All estimates are data-density dependent and different methods require different amounts of data for reasonable assessments. ArcMap 10.5.1 software was used to portray SREs to help visualize spatial variance of estimates for each methodology, and more importantly, to highlight those areas having the greatest total storage potential estimates.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗