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DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive Cognitive Mechanisms to Maintain Calibrated Trust and Reliance in Automation

Trust calibration for a human–machine team is the process by which a human adjusts their expectations of the automation’s reliability and trustworthiness; adaptive support for trust calibration is needed to engender appropriate reliance on automation. Herein, we leverage an instance-based learning ACT-R cognitive model of decisions to obtain and rely on an automated assistant for visual search in a UAV interface. This cognitive model matches well with the human predictive power statistics measuring reliance decisions; we obtain from the model an internal estimate of automation reliability that mirrors human subjective ratings. The model is able to predict the effect of various potential disruptions, such as environmental changes or particular classes of adversarial intrusions on human trust in automation. Finally, we consider the use of model predictions to improve automation transparency that account for human cognitive biases in order to optimize the bidirectional interaction between human and machine through supporting trust calibration. The implications of our findings for the design of reliable and trustworthy automation are discussed.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mind the gaps! Climate scientists should heed lessons in collaborative storytelling from William Shakespeare

Abstract To co‐produce locally relevant climate knowledge, climate scientists are engaging in new collaborations—with stakeholders and with scholars in the humanities, arts, and social sciences. In our work as a Shakespeare scholar‐turned‐public‐humanist and a climate scientist, we have created a methodology that allows researchers and communities to co‐produce knowledge by co‐producing narratives. We combine principles from emerging climate “storylines” research with collaborative storytelling inspired by William Shakespeare's plays and theatrical practices. Shakespeare's plays spark collaborations and interpretations, in part, because of how Shakespeare leaves gaps in the narrative. These gaps allow others to enter as collaborators, creating a “cognitive ecology” that fosters knowledge and action among all engaged. Integrating these methods into climate storyline‐making offers a radical paradigm: it upends the scientist's role as the focal storyteller and expert, and fosters, instead, partnership, equity, and a co‐exploration of multiple uncertainties. It is time for researchers to cede control to a cognitive ecology of collaborative action. This article is categorized under: Trans‐Disciplinary Perspectives > Humanities and the Creative Arts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Modulation Classification of Satellite Communication Signals Using Cumulants and Neural Networks

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)'s future communication architecture is evaluating cognitive technologies and increased system intelligence. These technologies are expected to reduce the operational complexity of the network, increase science data return, and reduce interference to self and others. In order to increase situational awareness, signal classification algorithms could be applied to identify users and distinguish sources of interference. A significant amount of previous work has been done in the area of automatic signal classification for military and commercial applications. As a preliminary step, we seek to develop a system with the ability to discern signals typically encountered in satellite communication. Proposed is an automatic modulation classifier which utilizes higher order statistics (cumulants) and an estimate of the signal-to-noise ratio. These features are extracted from baseband symbols and then processed by a neural network for classification. The modulation types considered are phase-shift keying (PSK), amplitude and phase-shift keying (APSK),and quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM). Physical layer properties specific to the Digital Video Broadcasting - Satellite- Second Generation (DVB-S2) standard, such as pilots and variable ring ratios, are also considered. This paper will provide simulation results of a candidate modulation classifier, and performance will be evaluated over a range of signal-to-noise ratios, frequency offsets, and nonlinear amplifier distortions.

Signal Recognition↗

NASA NTRS2017

Modulation Classification of Satellite Communication Signals Using Cumulants and Neural Networks

Signal Classification↗

NASA NTRS2019

Blind Study Validating Parametric Costing Tools PRICE True Planning and SEER-H for NASA Science Missions

Two of the primary parametric costing tools used to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware are PRICE True Planning - Space Missions Catalog by PRICE Systems, and SEER-H by Galorath. These are standard tools used by NASA and industry to estimate the cost of new aerospace hardware. However, no independent verification of the accuracy of these tools is publicly available. Both PRICE Systems and Galorath have completed internal validation studies of their parametric cost estimating tools; however, they only provided the results of the studies and did not detail the exact methods used to perform the validation. In the present study, cost estimators used PRICE True Planning and SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. In the present study, SEER had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, with a standard deviation of 43%. PRICE had an average error of 52%, median error of 50%, and standard deviation of 45%. There were several factors independent of PRICE and SEER which may have affected the accuracy of the results in the present study including: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.

Friz, Paul D.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Blind Validation Study of Parametric Cost Estimation Tool SEER-H for NASA Space Missions

One of the primary parametric cost modeling tools used by NASA and the aerospace industry to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware is SEER-H by Galorath. To date, no independent validation of this tool for cost estimation of space missions has been reported in the literature. In the present validation study, cost estimators used SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. The point estimates of SEER-H had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, and a standard deviation of 43%. Nine of the twelve mission's actual costs fell within the 80% confidence interval of SEER's probabilistic estimates. Several factors independent of SEER that may have affected the accuracy of the results have been identified and are discussed; these include: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.

SEER-H↗

NASA NTRS2018

Blind Study Validating Parametric Costing Tools PRICE TruePlanning and SEER-H for NASA Science Missions

Two of the primary parametric costing tools used to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware are PRICE TruePlanning - Space Missions Catalog by PRICE Systems, and SEER-H by Galorath. These are standard tools used by NASA and industry to estimate the cost of new aerospace hardware. However, no independent verification of the accuracy of these tools is publicly available. Both PRICE Systems and Galorath have completed internal validation studies of their parametric cost estimating tools; however, they only provided the results of the studies and did not detail the exact methods used to perform the validation. In the present study, cost estimators used PRICE TruePlanning and SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. In the present study, SEER had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, with a standard deviation of 43%. PRICE had an average error of 52%, median error of 50%, and standard deviation of 45%. There were several factors independent of PRICE and SEER which may have affected the accuracy of the results in the present study including: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.

Paul D Friz↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Blind Validation Study of PRICE TruePlanning and SEER-H

Two of the primary parametric costing tools used to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware are PRICE TruePlanning by PRICE Systems, and System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources-Hardware (SEER-H) by Galorath. These are standard tools used by NASA and industry to estimate the cost of new aerospace hardware. This study is an independent verification of the accuracy of these tools and was originally published in 2018. The purpose of this presentation is to circulate the findings of that study among the NASA cost community. Both PRICE Systems and Galorath have completed internal validation studies of their parametric cost estimating tools; however, they only provided the results of the studies and did not detail the exact methods used to perform the validation. In the present study, cost estimators used PRICE TruePlanning and SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. In the present study, SEER-H had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, with a standard deviation of 43%. PRICE had an average error of 52%, median error of 50%, and standard deviation of 45%. Nine of the twelve mission's actual costs fell within the 80% confidence interval of SEER's probabilistic estimates; however, none of the missions fell within PRICE’s confidence intervals. There were several factors independent of PRICE and SEER-H which may have affected the accuracy of the results in the present study including: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.

SEER↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tau accumulation and atrophy predict amyloid independent cognitive decline in aging

INTRODUCTION: Amyloid beta (Aβ) and tau pathology are cross-sectionally associated with atrophy and cognitive decline in aging and Alzheimer's disease (AD). METHODS: We investigated relationships between concurrent longitudinal measures of Aβ (Pittsburgh compound B [PiB] positron emission tomography [PET]), tau (flortaucipir [FTP] PET), atrophy (structural magnetic resonance imaging), episodic memory (EM), and non-memory (NM) in 78 cognitively healthy older adults (OA). RESULTS: Entorhinal FTP change was correlated with EM decline regardless of Aβ, but meta-temporal FTP and global PiB change were only associated with EM and NM decline in Aβ+ OA. Voxel-wise analyses revealed significant associations between temporal lobe FTP change and EM decline in all groups. PiB and FTP change were not associated with structural change, suggesting a functional or microstructural mechanism linking these measures to cognitive decline. DISCUSSION: Our results show that longitudinal Aβ is linked to cognitive decline only in the presence of elevated Aβ, but longitudinal temporal lobe tau is associated with memory decline regardless of Aβ status.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Suisun Summit 2022: Emerging Themes and Open Questions in qEEG and Neurotherapies

The Suisun Summit 2022 was a gathering of 70 clinicians, educators, and researchers in quantitative electroencephalography and neurofeedback. During this 5-day event, several themes emerged in talks or discussion groups: EEG/qEEG Reading Skills; Medication Effects and Pharmaco-EEG; Technological Advancements; Emerging Concerns; and Growing Community Prestige through Research. Participants were asked to summarize what they believed to be the most important messages from the event to share with colleagues who were not in attendance, resulting in this review. A unifying concept for all the themes was a desire for higher quality, standardized EEG/qEEG education that provides depth as well as breadth. Models of clinical care that encourage open communication with prescribers and functional medicine specialists were strongly emphasized. Abstracts from all presentations are attached in Addendum B.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The narrative arc: Revealing core narrative structures through text analysis

Scholars across disciplines have long debated the existence of a common structure that underlies narratives. Using computer-based language analysis methods, several structural and psychological categories of language were measured across ~40,000 traditional narratives (e.g., novels and movie scripts) and ~20,000 nontraditional narratives (science reporting in newspaper articles, TED talks, and Supreme Court opinions). Across traditional narratives, a consistent underlying story structure emerged that revealed three primary processes: staging, plot progression, and cognitive tension. No evidence emerged to indicate that adherence to normative story structures was related to the popularity of the story. Last, analysis of fact-driven texts revealed structures that differed from story-based narratives.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Miserable Risk Estimation: “Managing” Low-Probability, High-Consequence Risks

As with all bold endeavors, NASA missions must identify and manage their risks. While estimating the consequences of these risks is typically straightforward, it can be challenging to estimate their likelihood. This is especially true for low-probability risks, due both to the lack of operational data and the cognitive biases humans bring to risk estimation. In this talk, I will present both a tongue-in-cheek and “Management Science” approach to estimating low-probability, high-consequence risks. I then summon my Human Factors colleagues to provide NASA mission managers with the gentle guidance needed to avoid common errors in risk assessment

Mary K Kaiser↗

NASA NTRS1991

The NASA SETI program

In 1959, it was proposed that a sensible way to conduct interstellar communication would be to use radio at or near the frequency of hydrogen. In 1960, the first Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) was conducted using a radiotelescope at Green Bank in West Virginia. Since 1970, NASA has systematically developed a definitive program to conduct a sophisticated search for evidence of extraterrestrial intelligent life. The basic hypothesis is that life may be widespread in the univers, and that in many instances extraterrestrial life may have evolved into technological civilizations. The underlying scientific arguments are based on the continuously improving knowledge of astronomy and astrophysics, especially star system formation, and of planetary science, chemical evolution, and biological evolution. If only one in a million sun-like stars in our galaxy harbors species with cognitive intelligence, then there are 100,000 civilizations in the Milky Way alone. The fields of radioastronomy digital electronic engineering, spectrum analysis, and signal detection have advanced rapidly in the last twenty years and now allow for sophisticated systems to be built in order to attempt the detection of extraterrestrial intelligence signals. In concert with the scientific and engineering communities, NASA has developed, over the last several years, a Microwave Observing Project whose goal is to design, build, and operate SETI systems during the decade of the nineties in pursuit of the goal signal detection. The Microwave Observing Project is now approved and underway. There are two major components in the project: the Target Search Element and the Sky Survey Element.

Billingham, J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Neck Muscle Coactivation Response to Varied Levels of Mental Workload During Simulated Flight Tasks

Objective To evaluate neck muscle coactivation across different levels of mental workload during simulated flight tasks. Background Neck pain (NP) is highly prevalent among military aviators. Given the complex nature within the flight environment, mental workload may be a risk factor for NP. This may induce higher levels of neck muscle coactivity, which over time may accelerate fatigue, increase neck discomfort, and affect flight task performance. Method Three counterbalanced mental workload conditions represented by simulated flight tasks modulated by interstimulus frequency and complexity were investigated using the Modifiable Multitasking Environment (ModME). The primary measure was a neck coactivation index to describe the neuromuscular effort of the neck muscles as a system. Additional measures included perceived workload (NASA TLX), subjective discomfort, and task performance. Participants ( n = 60; 30M, 30F) performed three test conditions over 1 hr each while seated in a simulated seating environment. Results Neck coactivation indices (CoA) and subjective neck discomfort corresponded with increasing level of mental workload. Average CoAs for low, medium, and high workloads were: .0278(SD = .0232), .0286(SD = .0231), and .0295(SD = .0228), respectively. NASA TLX mental, temporal, effort, and overall scores also increased with the level of mental workload assigned. For ModME task performance, the overall performance score, monitoring accuracy, and resource management accuracy decreased while reaction times increased with the increasing level of mental workload. Communication accuracy was lowest with the low mental workload but had higher reaction times relative to increasing workload. Conclusion Mental workload affects neck muscle coactivation during combinations of simulated flight tasks within a simulated helicopter seating environment. Application The results of this study provide insights into the physical response to mental workload. With increasing multisensory modalities within the work environment, these insights may assist the consideration of physical effects from cognitive factors.

Behavioral Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Immersive Analytics in Critical Spatial Domains: From Materials to Energy Systems

Immersive analytics (IA) leverages virtual reality, augmented reality, and mixed reality to transform how users interact with complex datasets across domains such as science, industry, and education. These immersive technologies offer spatial and multimodal environments that foster intuitive exploration, but they also introduce challenges related to cognitive load, interface design, and system performance. Here, this article presents a comprehensive review of visualization techniques, interaction models, and multimodal inputs utilized in IA. Drawing on case studies in scientific visualization, industrial training, and educational communication, we examine both the potential and limitations of current systems. Finally, we propose future research directions, focusing on real‐time collaboration, adaptive user interfaces, and scalable data exploration strategies to advance the field.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2014

Interdisciplinary Interactions During R&D and Early Design of Large Engineered Systems

Designing Large-Scale Complex Engineered Systems (LaCES) such as aircraft and submarines requires the input of thousands of engineers and scientists whose work is proximate in neither time nor space. Comprehensive knowledge of the system is dispersed among specialists whose expertise is in typically one system component or discipline. This study examined the interactive work practices among such specialists seeking to improve engineering practice through a rigorous and theoretical understanding of current practice. This research explored current interdisciplinary practices and perspectives during R&D and early LaCES design and identified why these practices and perspectives prevail and persist. The research design consisted of a three-fold, integrative approach that combined an open-ended survey, semi-structured interviews, and ethnography. Significant empirical data from experienced engineers and scientists in a large engineering organization were obtained and integrated with theories from organization science and engineering. Qualitative analysis was used to obtain a holistic, contextualized understanding. The over-arching finding is that issues related to cognition, organization, and social interrelations mostly dominate interactions across disciplines. Engineering issues, such as the integration of hardware or physics-based models, are not as significant. For example, organization culture is an important underlying factor that guided researchers more toward individual sovereignty over cross-disciplinarity. The organization structure and the engineered system architecture also serve as constraints to the engineering work. Many differences in work practices were observed, including frequency and depth of interactions, definition or co-construction of requirements, clarity or creation of the system architecture, work group proximity, and cognitive challenges. Practitioners are often unaware of these differences resulting in confusion and incorrect assumptions regarding work expectations. Cognitively, the enactment and coconstruction of knowledge are the fundamental tasks of the interdisciplinary interactions. Distributed and collective cognition represent most of the efforts. Argument, ignorance, learning, and creativity are interrelated aspects of the interactions that cause discomfort but yield benefits such as problem mitigation, broader understanding, and improved system design and performance. The quality and quantity of social interrelations are central to all work across disciplines with reciprocity, respectful engagement, and heedful interrelations being significant to the effectiveness of the engineering and scientific work.

McGowan, Anna-Maria Rivas↗

NASA NTRS2018

NASA Pilot-Engaged Expert Response Using IBM Watson Technology: Prototype Evaluation of Knowledge Retrieval System

NASA Langley Research Center and IBM have been investigating the use of IBM Watson technology in aerospace research and development. One application of Watson technology is the Pilot-Engaged Expert Response (PEER) use case. The PEER system is envisioned as an in-cockpit advisor that will act as a source of situationally-relevant information for pilots and other flight crew members to assist in decision making about real-time events and situations that arise in the course of aircraft operations. PEER will make available vast stores of knowledge and information quickly and directly, putting important informational resources where they are needed most. IBM has worked with NASA to develop an architecture and articulate a roadmap for the development of the PEER system. That vision is built around Watson Discovery Advisor (WDA) software solution, derived from IBM's Jeopardy!-winning automatic question answering system. PEER makes use of WDA's sophisticated question-answering capabilities as its core, adding important User Interface components and other customizations for the cockpit environment, including communication with flight systems and other external data sources. The development plan for PEER includes four development stages, with the current project constituting the first phase. In this project, a prototype instance of PEER was successfully adapted to the aviation domain, enabling users to ask questions about aviation topics and receive useful and accurate answers to these questions. Major tasks accomplished include the development of procedures for domain adaptation through automatic lexicon extraction from domain glossaries; generation of question-answer training data which was used to train the system; and assessment of the effectiveness of domain adaptation, which showed a dramatic improvement in the ability of the PEER system to answer domain-relevant questions. In addition, the vision for the PEER system was pushed forward by the articulation of a plan for the automatic enhancement of question-answering with contextual information. This initial phase focused on two main goals: 1) the targeted domain adaptation of the underlying WDA system to the aviation domain; and, 2) the design of the software systems needed to leverage flight-contextual data. Domain adaptation of the WDA system proceeds via three main activities: Domain data ingestion, lexical customization and model training. A textual corpus consisting of 1,147 individual documents with more than 7.5 million words of text was ingested into the system and this served as the basis of all further development. A domain lexicon of over 3,500 aviation-domain terms was semi-automatically generated from domain documents and used to train the system. In addition, a set of over 500 question-answer (QA) pairs relevant to the PEER use case was developed; these were used to train and assess the system. These important first steps established the basis for the PEER system. In addition, steps were taken towards the integration of the PEER system into the cockpit environment with the development of a functional design for the Contextual Data Augmentation (CDA) subsystem. This subsystem brings to bear contextual data to improve system responses. It has three main submodules: the Contextual Data Collection module, the Contextual Data Selection module, and the Contextual QA Augmentation module. These modules form a processing pipeline that addresses the problems associated with automatically integrating information from external resources into the knowledge-retrieval mechanism.

Machine learning↗

NASA NTRS1990

Toward applied behavior analysis of life aloft

This article deals with systems at multiple levels, at least from cell to organization. It also deals with learning, decision making, and other behavior at multiple levels. Technological development of a human behavioral ecosystem appropriate to space environments requires an analytic and synthetic orientation, explicitly experimental in nature, dictated by scientific and pragmatic considerations, and closely approximating procedures of established effectiveness in other areas of natural science. The conceptual basis of such an approach has its roots in environmentalism which has two main features: (1) knowledge comes from experience rather than from innate ideas, divine revelation, or other obscure sources; and (2) action is governed by consequences rather than by instinct, reason, will, beliefs, attitudes or even the currently fashionable cognitions. Without an experimentally derived data base founded upon such a functional analysis of human behavior, the overgenerality of "ecological systems" approaches render them incapable of ensuring the successful establishment of enduring space habitats. Without an experimentally derived function account of individual behavioral variability, a natural science of behavior cannot exist. And without a natural science of behavior, the social sciences will necessarily remain in their current status as disciplines of less than optimal precision or utility. Such a functional analysis of human performance should provide an operational account of behavior change in a manner similar to the way in which Darwin's approach to natural selection accounted for the evolution of phylogenetic lines (i.e., in descriptive, nonteleological terms). Similarly, as Darwin's account has subsequently been shown to be consonant with information obtained at the cellular level, so too should behavior principles ultimately prove to be in accord with an account of ontogenetic adaptation at a biochemical level. It would thus seem obvious that the most productive conceptual and methodological approaches to long-term research investments focused upon human behavior in space environments will require multidisciplinary inputs from such wide-ranging fields as molecular biology, environmental physiology, behavioral biology, architecture, sociology, and political science, among others.

Review↗