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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Long-Term GOES Satellite Overshooting Cloud Top and Anvil Cloud Climatology Over South America

The modern-era GOES satellite series began in 1994 with the GOES-8 satellite, and was augmented in 2018 with higher spatial resolution and more frequent imaging when GOES-16 became operational. GOES imagery has provided forecasters and researchers new perspectives into cloud top patterns associated with severe convection, and the ability to better forecast convection in regions without adequate ground-based weather radar coverage. While much attention has been given to convection over North America, convection over South America can be equally, if not more, intense and frequent. Recent studies have demonstrated that overshooting cloud tops (OT) and surrounding anvil clouds can be detected within infrared satellite imagery. Relative storm updraft intensity metrics such as the tropopause-relative infrared brightness temperature, the prominence of an OT relative to its surrounding anvil, and cloud top height can also be derived using automated methods combined with reanalysis data. These automated OT detection and intensity estimation methods have recently been applied to all GOES images collected over South America, in combination with the MERRA-2 reanalysis, from 1995 to 2022 at NASA Langley within a project supported by the NASA Applied Sciences Disasters program. Innovative aggregation methods have merged these products into daily, monthly, annual, and multi-annual composites, with hourly time bins, at ~4 km pixel spacing to enable researchers a new opportunity to study South American convective processes throughout the diurnal cycle. These products have recently become publicly available from NASA. This presentation will overview this new dataset, and novel insights into South American convection depicted by the data.

Kristopher Bedka↗
NASA NTRS2006

NASA Spaceborne Radar Missions: CloudSat and QuickScat: To Observe Clouds and Sea Surface Winds

CloudSat is a joint US/Canadian spaceborne science mission for global measurements of atmospheric cloud structures. Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) has already captured many stunning profiles of cloud/precipitation structures, some have not been seen before. Observation of storms' cloud formation, in conjunction with data from other remote sensors, will hopefully improve quality of natural hazards' forecasts.

CloudSat↗
NASA NTRS1988

Dynamics of convective scale interaction

Several of the mesoscale dynamic and thermodynamic aspects of convective scale interaction are examined. An explanation of how sounding data can be coupled with satellite observed cumulus development in the warm sector and the arc cloud line's time evolution to develop a short range forecast of expected convective intensity along an arc cloud line. The formative, mature and dissipating stages of the arc cloud line life cycle are discussed. Specific properties of convective scale interaction are presented and the relationship between arc cloud lines and tornado producing thunderstorms is considered.

Purdom, James F. W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of the CALIPSO Level 3 Ice Cloud Product with the DARDAR and 2C-ICE products

Understanding the vertical distribution of ice clouds is crucial for climate modeling and weather forecasting. Since its launch to space in 2006, the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization instrument (CALIOP) onboard the CALIPSO spacecraft has been providing unprecedented high-quality profiles of ice clouds, especially optically thin cirrus clouds, during both day and night, on a global scale. Recently the lidar science working group at the NASA Langley Research Center delivered a level 3 (L3) ice cloud product which reports monthly statistics of ice cloud extinction coefficient and ice water content on a uniform 3-dimensional spatial grid. This presentation compares the ice cloud climatology derived from this product with two other ice cloud products, namely the raDAR/liDAR(DARDAR) ice cloud product and the CloudSat-CALIPSO Ice Cloud Property Product (2C-ICE). Using processing similar to the CALIPSO L3 product, granules of DARDAR and 2C-ICE data have been processed into monthly statistics for a better comparison. Similarities and differences will be presented and discussed. The findings illustrate the strengths of the different products and help to identify which product might be most appropriate for a given research topic.

Xia Cai↗
NASA NTRS2008

CALIPSO Satellite Lidar Identification Of Elevated Dust Over Australia Compared With Air Quality Model PM60 Forecasts

Global measurements of the vertical distribution of clouds and aerosols have been recorded by the lidar on board the CALIPSO (Cloud Aerosol Lidar Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) satellite since June 2006. Such extensive, height-resolved measurements provide a rare and valuable opportunity for developing, testing and validating various atmospheric models, including global climate, numerical weather prediction, chemical transport and air quality models. Here we report on the initial results of an investigation into the performance of the Australian Air Quality Forecast System (AAQFS) model in forecasting the distribution of elevated dust over the Australian region. The model forecasts of PM60 dust distribution are compared with the CALIPSO lidar Vertical Feature Mask (VFM) data product. The VFM classifies contiguous atmospheric regions of enhanced backscatter as either cloud or aerosols. Aerosols are further classified into six subtypes. By comparing forecast PM60 concentration profiles to the spatial distribution of dust reported in the CALIPSO VFM, we can assess the model s ability to predict the occurrence and the vertical and horizontal extents of dust events within the study area.

Young, Stuart A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Surface wind convergence as a short-term predictor of cloud-to-ground lightning at Kennedy Space Center

Cloud-to-ground lightning is a significant forecast problem at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in Florida. In this study, cloud-to-ground lightning is related in time and space to surface convergence for 244 days during the convective seasons of 1985 and 1986 over a 790 sq-km network at KSC. The method uses surface convergence, particularly the average over the area, to identify the potential for new, local thunderstorm growth, and it can be used to specify the likely time and location of lightning during the life cycle of the convection. A threshold of 75 x 10 to the -6th/s change in divergence is the main criterion used to define a convergence event, and a set of flashes less than 30 min apart defines a lightning event. Time intervals are found from the study to be approximately 1 h from beginning convergence to first flash, and another hour to the end of lightning. The influences of low-level winds and midlevel moisture in determining the location and intensity of convection are discussed. This is the first known dynamically-based forecast method for lightning prediction. The technique, currently in use at KSC, has been shown to be a systematic, quantitative tool for predicting lightning onset in situations where conventional analysis tools such as radar and satellite are limited.

Watson, Andrew I.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Impact of Assimilating Cloud-Cleared and Adaptively Thinned Infrared Hyperspectral Data on Tropical Cyclones in a Global Data Assimilation and Forecast Framework

A simple adaptive thinning methodology for Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) radiances is evaluated through a combination of Observing System Experiments (OSEs) and adjoint methodologies. In addition, the impact of cloud-cleared radiances for AIRS is also evaluated. The OSEs are performed with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS, version 5) data assimilation and forecast model. The adaptive strategy uses a denser coverage in a moving domain centered around tropical cyclones (TCs), sparser everywhere else.The OSEs consist of three sets of data assimilation runs that cover the period from September 1st to 10 November 2014, with the first 20 days discarded for spin-up. All sets assimilate conventional and satellite observations used operationally. In addition, one ingests clear-sky AIRS, CrIS, and IASI radiances at different densities, another AIRS cloud-cleared radiances, and CrIS and IASI clear-sky radiances, and the third adaptively thinned AIRS, CrIS and IASI radiances. Daily 10-day forecasts are initialized from all these analyses and evaluated with focus on TCs over the Atlantic and the Pacific.Evidence is provided that this simple TC-centered adaptive radiance thinning strategy, in full agreement with previous theoretical studies, increases the global forecast skill and improves tropical cyclone representation and intensity forecast. In addition, the impact of AIRS cloud-cleared radiances is demonstrated to be particularly strong on TCs. The implications are that cloud-cleared radiances, if thinned more aggressively than the currently used clear-sky radiances, could be operationally used with large gain in TC forecasting and no loss of global skill.

Reale, Oreste↗
NASA NTRS2015

Using Satellite Observations to Evaluate the AeroCOM Volcanic Emissions Inventory and the Dispersal of Volcanic SO2 Clouds in MERRA

Simulation of volcanic emissions in climate models requires information that describes the eruption of the emissions into the atmosphere. While the total amount of gases and aerosols released from a volcanic eruption can be readily estimated from satellite observations, information about the source parameters, like injection altitude, eruption time and duration, is often not directly known. The AeroCOM volcanic emissions inventory provides estimates of eruption source parameters and has been used to initialize volcanic emissions in reanalysis projects, like MERRA. The AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory provides an eruptions daily SO2 flux and plume top altitude, yet an eruption can be very short lived, lasting only a few hours, and emit clouds at multiple altitudes. Case studies comparing the satellite observed dispersal of volcanic SO2 clouds to simulations in MERRA have shown mixed results. Some cases show good agreement with observations Okmok (2008), while for other eruptions the observed initial SO2 mass is half of that in the simulations, Sierra Negra (2005). In other cases, the initial SO2 amount agrees with the observations but shows very different dispersal rates, Soufriere Hills (2006). In the aviation hazards community, deriving accurate source terms is crucial for monitoring and short-term forecasting (24-h) of volcanic clouds. Back trajectory methods have been developed which use satellite observations and transport models to estimate the injection altitude, eruption time, and eruption duration of observed volcanic clouds. These methods can provide eruption timing estimates on a 2-hour temporal resolution and estimate the altitude and depth of a volcanic cloud. To better understand the differences between MERRA simulations and volcanic SO2 observations, back trajectory methods are used to estimate the source term parameters for a few volcanic eruptions and compared to their corresponding entry in the AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory. The nature of these mixed results is discussed with respect to the source term estimates.

OMI SO2↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cloud-Based Time Series Analysis of Extremes: Use Cases and Applications

"Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, droughts, heatwaves, and blizzards, can cause widespread damage, disrupting ecosystems, agricultural production, and economies. The frequency and intensity of these events have been increasing, likely due to climate change, raising concerns and the need for more accurate analysis and predictions. NASA's Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has migrated its long-term historical datasets, including precipitation data from MERRA-2 reanalysis, GLDAS land data assimilation, and IMERG satellite observations, to the cloud. This cloud-stored data enables scientists and researchers to utilize cloud computing for advanced modeling and forecasting of extreme weather events, eliminating the need to download large datasets. In this presentation, we will provide an overview of the cloud-based data and services managed by GES DISC; demonstrate methods for accessing and analyzing time series data stored in the cloud; and compare results across various datasets to address critical questions related to extreme precipitation. We will present use cases including: 1. Determining the average total precipitation in California during January and February from 2000 to 2024, and identifying anomalous precipitation in 2021. 2. Calculating the 10, 20, 50, and 100-year return periods for maximum daily rainfall based on 25 years of historical precipitation data (2000-2024) for Maryland.

time series↗
NASA NTRS2005

Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

Bauman, William H., III↗
NASA NTRS1977

Deriving mesoscale temperature and moisture fields from satellite radiance measurements over the United States

The ability to provide mesoscale temperature and moisture fields from operational satellite infrared sounding radiances over the United States is explored. High-resolution sounding information for mesoscale analysis and forecasting is shown to be obtainable in mostly clear areas. An iterative retrieval algorithm applied to NOAA-VTPR radiances uses a mean radiosonde sounding as a best initial-guess profile. Temperature soundings are then retrieved at a horizontal resolution of about 70 km, as is an indication of the precipitable water content of the vertical sounding columns. Derived temperature values may be biased in general by the initial-guess sounding or in certain areas by the cloud correction technique, but the resulting relative temperature changes across the field when not contaminated by clouds will be useful for mesoscale forecasting and models. The derived moisture, affected only by high clouds, proves to be reliable to within 0.5 cm of precipitable water and contains valuable horizontal information. Present-day applications from polar-orbiting satellites as well as possibilities from upcoming temperature and moisture sounders on geostationary satellites are noted.

Hillger, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Anvil Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Shuttle Flight Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) created a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display Systems (MIDDS) to indicate the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input. In order for the Anvil Tool to remain available to the meteorologists, the AMU was tasked to transition the tool to the Advanced Weather interactive Processing System (AWIPS). This report describes the work done by the AMU to develop the Anvil Tool for AWIPS to create a graphical overlay depicting the threat from thunderstorm anvil clouds. The AWIPS Anvil Tool is based on the previously deployed AMU MIDDS Anvil Tool. SMG and 45 WS forecasters have used the MIDDS Anvil Tool during launch and landing operations. SMG's primary weather analysis and display system is now AWIPS and the 45 WS has plans to replace MIDDS with AWIPS. The Anvil Tool creates a graphic that users can overlay on satellite or radar imagery to depict the potential location of thunderstorm anvils one, two, and three hours into the future. The locations are based on an average of the upper-level observed or forecasted winds. The graphic includes 10 and 20 nm standoff circles centered at the location of interest, in addition to one-, two-, and three-hour arcs in the upwind direction. The arcs extend outward across a 30 degree sector width based on a previous AMU study which determined thunderstorm anvils move in a direction plus or minus 15 degrees of the upper-level (300- to 150-mb) wind direction. This report briefly describes the history of the MIDDS Anvil Tool and then explains how the initial development of the AWIPS Anvil Tool was carried out. After testing was performed by SMG, 45 WS, and AMU, a number of needed improvements were identified. A bug report document was created that showed the status of each bug and desired improvement. This report lists the improvements that were made to increase the accuracy and user-friendliness of the tool. Final testing was carried out and documented and then the final version of the software and Users Guide was provided to SMG and the 45 WS. Several possible future improvements to the tool are identified that would increase the flexibility of the tool. This report contains a brief history of the development of the Anvil Tool in MIDDS, and then describes the transition and development of software to AWIPS.

Barrett, Joe, III↗
NASA NTRS1994

Doppler radar signatures of developing thunderstorms and their potential to indicate the onset of cloud-to-ground lightning

The capability of Doppler weather radars to short-term forecast the initiation of thunderstorms and the onset of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is examined. Doppler weather radar data from 28 thunderstorms were analyzed from August 1990 in the central Florida environment. These radar echoes were associated with CG lightning strike locations from the National Lightning Detection Network and two lightning detection systems operated by the U.S. Air Force in the vicinity of Kennedy Space Center. From a time history of these radar echoes it was found that a 10-dBZ echo, first detected near the freezing level, may be the first definitive echo of a future thunderstorm. This thunderstorm initiation signature is often accompanied by low-altitude convergence and divergence at the top of the radar echo. The observed lead times between this thunderstorm initiation signature and the first detected CG lightning strike ranged from 5 to 45 min with a median lead time of 15 min. All lightning-producing radar echoes were detected using the thunderstorm initiation signature; however, some echoes exceeded the 10-dBZ threshold and did not produce andy CG lightning. The charecteristics of the WSR-88D and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar systems are evaluated for their capability to detect the thunderstorm initiation signature in central Florida with sufficient temporal and spatial resolution.

Hondl, Kurt D.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Effect of Clouds on Shuttle Imaging

This report describes the results of the AMU's task for determining the effect of clouds on optical imaging of the Space Shuttle launch vehicle during its ascent phase from lift-off to Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) Separation. This effort was motivated by Recommendation R3.4-1 from the Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report. The AMU developed a 3-dimensional (3D) model to forecast the probability that at any time from lift-off to SRB separation, at least three of the ascent imaging cameras would have a view of the Shuttle unobstructed by cloud. Because current observational and modeling capabilities do not permit accurate forecasts of cloud morphology and location, the AMU simulated obscuration of the lines-of-sight (LOS) from a network of cameras to the Shuttle by idealized cloud-fields placed randomly within the 3D domain. For each random realization of numerous cloud-field scenarios the number of simultaneous views of the Shuttle was computed from the LOS data between lift-off and SRB separation. The percent of time with 3 simultaneous views was averaged from 100 random realizations of each scenario. Analyses of the percent of time viewable were made to determine its sensitivity to cloud amount, cloud base height, cloud thickness, cloud horizontal dimensions, and an upgrade of the camera network.

Short, David A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Observing system simulation experiments related to space-borne Lidar wind profiling. Part 1: Forecast impacts of highly idealized observing systems

Simulation experiments comparing the relative importance of an idealized LIDAR wind profiling system with idealized temperature and pressure sounding systems on 12 h forecasts are studied for three "nature' fields representing the true evolving atmospheric states. The three fields are obtained respectively from: (1) a long integration of the GLAS 4th Order Model (4 deg lat x 5 deg lon x 9 levels), (2) a continuous sequence of NMC operational analysis and, (3) a long integration of the ECMWF high resolution (1.875 deg 1 lat x 1.875 deg lon x 15 layers) operational forecast model. These fields are interpolated to the grid of the GLAS model and used for simulating the observed global analysed fields of winds, temperature, moisture and surface pressure. The same interpolated fields are also used for verification of forecast impact. The effects of clouds, aerosol concentrations, and instrument accuracies on the simulated observation will be discussed.

Halem, M.↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Aura Mission and Its Application to Climate and Air Quality

NASA's Aura satellite is scheduled to launch in the second quarter of 2004 into a polar orbit. The Aura mission is designed to collect data to address three high priority environmental science questions: (1) Is the ozone layer recovering as expected? (2) What are the sources and processes that control tropospheric pollutants? And (3) what is the quantitative impact of constituents on climate change? Aura will answer these questions by globally measuring a comprehensive set of trace gases and aerosols in the troposphere and stratosphere. Aura data will also have applications for monitoring and predicting climate and air quality parameters. Aura s observations will continue the TOMS ozone trend record and provide an assessment as to whether the Montreal Protocol is achieving its objective. Aura will measure gases and aerosols in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that contribute to climate forcing. These data will be of sufficient coverage, vertical resolution, and accuracy to help constrain climate models. In addition, Aura observations of tropospheric ozone and its precursors will have regional as well as intercontinental coverage, which could improve emission inventories. Near real time data will tested for local air quality forecasts in collaboration with the US's Environmental Protection UV-B forecasts from Aura ozone and cloud cover data. An overview of Aura s instruments, data products, validation, and examples of data applications will be presented.

Hilsenrath, Ernest↗