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NASA NTRS1996

Cloud Feedback in Atmospheric General Circulation Models: An Update

Six years ago, we compared the climate sensitivity of 19 atmospheric general circulation models and found a roughly threefold variation among the models; most of this variation was attributed to differences in the models' depictions of cloud feedback. In an update of this comparison, current models showed considerably smaller differences in net cloud feedback, with most producing modest values. There are, however, substantial differences in the feedback components, indicating that the models still have physical disagreements.

Cess, R. D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improvement of Radiative Fluxes for the CERES FluxByCldTyp Data Product Based on Machine Learning Technique

The NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) product provides over 20 years of accurately observed top-of-the-atmosphere and surface flux data for climate studies. The interaction between clouds and radiation interaction is a key factor that dominate climate feedbacks but is not well understood. To further advance our understanding of the cloud-radiation interaction, a new CERES FluxByCldTyp (FBCT) product has been developed that contains radiative fluxes by cloud-type, which can provide more stringent constraints when validating models. The FBCT product utilizes Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) narrow-band (NB) imager channel radiances partitioned by cloud-type within a CERES footprint to estimate their broadband fluxes. The MODIS multi-channel derived broadband fluxes were compared with the CERES observed footprint fluxes and were found to be within 1% and 2.5% for LW and SW, respectively, as well as being mostly free of cloud property dependencies. The FBCT all-sky and clear-sky monthly averaged fluxes were found to be consistent with the CERES SSF1deg product. This study takes advantage of recent progress in machine learning (ML) field by applying deep neural network algorithm to improve fluxes based on MODIS NB radiances. The preliminary study shows ML produce are an improvement over the current FBCT Edition 4 NB2BB algorithm. Furthermore, unlike Ed4 NB2BB, the new ML method convert NB radiances directly to broadband fluxes. For future Ed5, new NB radiances are proposed and used by ML to improve fluxes calculation. Preliminary results show significant LW improvement.

Sun, Moguo↗

NASA NTRS1993

Climate forcings and feedbacks

Global temperature has increased significantly during the past century. Understanding the causes of observed global temperature change is impossible in the absence of adequate monitoring of changes in global climate forcings and radiative feedbacks. Climate forcings are changes imposed on the planet's energy balance, such as change of incoming sunlight or a human-induced change of surface properties due to deforestation. Radiative feedbacks are radiative changes induced by climate change, such as alteration of cloud properties or the extent of sea ice. Monitoring of global climate forcings and feedbacks, if sufficiently precise and long-term, can provide a very strong constraint on interpretation of observed temperature change. Such monitoring is essential to eliminate uncertainties about the relative importance of various climate change mechanisms including tropospheric sulfate aerosols from burning of coal and oil smoke from slash and burn agriculture, changes of solar irradiance changes of several greenhouse gases, and many other mechanisms. The considerable variability of observed temperature, together with evidence that a substantial portion of this variability is unforced indicates that observations of climate forcings and feedbacks must be continued for decades. Since the climate system responds to the time integral of the forcing, a further requirement is that the observations be carried out continuously. However, precise observations of forcings and feedbacks will also be able to provide valuable conclusions on shorter time scales. For example, knowledge of the climate forcing by increasing CFC's relative to the forcing by changing ozone is important to policymakers, as is information on the forcing by CO2 relative to the forcing by sulfate aerosols. It will also be possible to obtain valuable tests of climate models on short time scales, if there is precise monitoring of all forcings and feedbacks during and after events such as a large volcanic eruption or an El Nino.

Hansen, James↗

NASA NTRS1992

Venus: The case for a wet origin and a runaway greenhouse

To one interested in atmospheric evolution, the most intriguing aspect of our neighboring planet Venus is its lack of water. Measurements made by Pioneer Venus and by Several Venera spacecraft indicate that the present water abundance in Venus' lower atmosphere is of the order of 20 to 200 ppmv, or 3 x 10( exp -6) to 3 x 10 (exp -5) of the amount of water in Earth's oceans. The exact depletion factor is uncertain, in part because of an unexplained vertical gradient in H2O concentration in the lowest 10 km of the venusian atmosphere, but the general scarcity of water is well established. The interesting question, then, is: Was venus deficient in water when it formed and, if not, where did its water go? The conclusion that Venus was originally wet is consistent with its large endowment of other volatiles and with the enhanced D/H ratio in the present atmosphere. The most likely mechanism by which Venus could have lost its water is by the development of a runaway or moist greenhouse atmosphere followed by photodissociation of water vapor and escape of hydrogen to space. Climate model calculations that neglect cloud albedo feedback predict the existence of two critical transitions in atmospheric behavior at high solar fluxes: (1) at a solar flux of approximately 1.1 times the value at Earth's orbit, S(o), the abundance of stratospheric water vapor increases dramatically, permitting rapid escape of hydrogen to space (termed a moist greenhouse) and (2) at a solar flux of approximately 1.4 S(o), the oceans vaporize entirely, creating a true runaway greenhouse. If cloudiness increases at high surface temperatures, as seems likely, and if the dominant effect of clouds is to cool the planet by reflecting incident solar radiation, the actual solar flux required to create moist or runaway conditions would be higher than the values quoted above. Early in solar system history, solar luminosity was about 25 percent to 30 percent less than today, putting the flux at Venus' orbit in the range of 1.34 S(o) to 1.43 S(o). Thus, it is possible that Venus had liquid water on its surface for several hundred million years following its formation. Paradoxically, this might have facilitated water loss by sequestering atmospheric CO2 in carbonate rocks and by providing an effective medium for surface oxidation.

Kasting, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Using Satellites to Understand Climate and Climate Change

This viewgraph presentation reviews the measurement of climate with the use of satellites. The basic greenhouse effect, Ice-albedo feedback, climate models and observations, aerosol-cloud interactions, and the Antarctic are discussed, along with the human effect on climate change.

remote sensing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimating the Arctic Cloud-Sea Ice Feedback With Observations during the EOS Period

Arctic sea ice responds to and drives Arctic climate change. The interactions between Arctic sea ice and clouds represent a mechanism through which sea ice can drive climate change. We composite active remote sensing satellite cloud properties for ice-free, marginal ice zone (MIZ), and ice-covered surfaces during MIZ crossing events to investigate the influence of the transition from an ice-covered to an ice-free surface on low-level clouds. We demonstrate that the event-based methodology controls for large-scale meteorological factors and isolates the sea ice effect on clouds. We find larger cloud fraction and total water content below ~1.5 km over ice-free relative to ice-covered surfaces during non-summer months, indicating a low-level cloud sensitivity to Arctic sea ice decline. During summer, results show larger cloud fraction and water content over ice-free surfaces, however the differences are statistically indistinguishable. Evidence is provided that atmospheric thermodynamic profile differences cause the cloud property differences, namely that ice-free footprints are warmer, moister, have more positive surface turbulent fluxes and are less stable than their ice-covered counterparts. Ice-free and ice-covered surface cloud property differences scale with surface temperature differences such that cloud property differences are only found in the presence of a surface temperature difference. We conclude that surface temperature differences modulate the cloud response to sea ice loss through influences on surface turbulent fluxes and lower tropospheric stability. The results imply a positive non-summer sea ice-cloud feedback and that up to a 0.02 cloud fraction and 0.05 g m 3 total water content increase in fall are due to the observed sea ice decline.

Patrick C. Taylor↗

NASA NTRS2001

Response to "The Iris Hypothesis: A Negative or Positive Cloud Feedback?"

Based on radiance measurements of Japan's Geostationary Meteorological Satellite, Lindzen et al. found that the high-level cloud cover averaged over the tropical western Pacific decreases with increasing sea surface temperature. They further found that the response of high-level clouds to the sea surface temperature had an effect of reducing the magnitude of climate change, which is referred as a negative climate feedback. Lin et al. reassessed the results found by Lindzen et al. by analyzing the radiation and clouds derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System measurements. They found a weak positive feedback between high-level clouds and the surface temperature. We have found that the approach taken by Lin et al. to estimating the albedo and the outgoing longwave radiation is incorrect and that the inferred climate sensitivity is unreliable.

Chou, Ming-Dah↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Possible climate histories of Venus type worlds

There are two well-known scenarios for Venus’ climate evolution. In one Venus had a long-lived magma ocean phase in its first 100Myr with a steam and CO2dominated atmosphere[1]. The faint young sun with its high XUV flux would cause photo-dissociation of the steam atmosphere and hydrodynamic escape would cause most of the hydrogen to escape and the left over oxygen would be absorbed by the magma ocean. Hence Venus would have started out hot and dry and the high D/H ratio measured by Pioneer Venus [2] would be from this period of water loss. The other scenario is that Venus’ magma ocean lifetime would have been roughly the same length of time as Earth’s (~1Myr) and water would have condensed on its surface in its early history. As long as Venus remained in the slowly rotating climate dynamics regime [3,4] its cloud albedo feedback would have kept it temperate for possibly billions of years. The only way to confirm which one of these scenarios occurred for Venus is to visit it and make the necessary measurements of noble and volatile gases [5].But exoplanet observations of young exo-Venus type worlds around young F,G,K dwarf stars may constrain whether both scenarios are equally probable for a population of such planets. We present a vision of Venus’ climate history that places it and its exo-Venus cousins in an ‘Optimistic Venus Zone’ within the conventionally named ‘Venus Zone’ [6] and hence encourage the exoplanet community to seek out these worlds as possible habitable environments.

Venus’ climate evolution↗

NASA NTRS1990

Intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models

The present study provides an intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models. This intercomparison uses sea surface temperature change as a surrogate for climate change. The interpretation of cloud-climate interactions is given special attention. A roughly threefold variation in one measure of global climate sensitivity is found among the 19 models. The important conclusion is that most of this variation is attributable to differences in the models' depiction of cloud feedback, a result that emphasizes the need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in these models if they are ultimately to be used as reliable climate predictors. It is further emphazied that cloud feedback is the consequence of all interacting physical and dynamical processes in a general circulation model. The result of these processes is to produce changes in temperature, moisture distribution, and clouds which are integrated into the radiative response termed cloud feedback.

Cess, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Cloud-Scale Numerical Modeling of the Arctic Boundary Layer

The interactions between sea ice, open ocean, atmospheric radiation, and clouds over the Arctic Ocean exert a strong influence on global climate. Uncertainties in the formulation of interactive air-sea-ice processes in global climate models (GCMs) result in large differences between the Arctic, and global, climates simulated by different models. Arctic stratus clouds are not well-simulated by GCMs, yet exert a strong influence on the surface energy budget of the Arctic. Leads (channels of open water in sea ice) have significant impacts on the large-scale budgets during the Arctic winter, when they contribute about 50 percent of the surface fluxes over the Arctic Ocean, but cover only 1 to 2 percent of its area. Convective plumes generated by wide leads may penetrate the surface inversion and produce condensate that spreads up to 250 km downwind of the lead, and may significantly affect the longwave radiative fluxes at the surface and thereby the sea ice thickness. The effects of leads and boundary layer clouds must be accurately represented in climate models to allow possible feedbacks between them and the sea ice thickness. The FIRE III Arctic boundary layer clouds field program, in conjunction with the SHEBA ice camp and the ARM North Slope of Alaska and Adjacent Arctic Ocean site, will offer an unprecedented opportunity to greatly improve our ability to parameterize the important effects of leads and boundary layer clouds in GCMs.

Krueger, Steven K.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Observed and Simulated Radiative and Microphysical Properties of Tropical Convective Storms

Increases in the ice content, albedo and cloud cover of tropical convective storms in a warmer climate produce a large negative contribution to cloud feedback in the GISS GCM. Unfortunately, the physics of convective upward water transport, detrainment, and ice sedimentation, and the relationship of microphysical to radiative properties, are all quite uncertain. We apply a clustering algorithm to TRMM satellite microwave rainfall retrievals to identify contiguous deep precipitating storms throughout the tropics. Each storm is characterized according to its size, albedo, OLR, rain rate, microphysical structure, and presence/absence of lightning. A similar analysis is applied to ISCCP data during the TOGA/COARE experiment to identify optically thick deep cloud systems and relate them to large-scale environmental conditions just before storm onset. We examine the statistics of these storms to understand the relative climatic roles of small and large storms and the factors that regulate convective storm size and albedo. The results are compared to GISS GCM simulated statistics of tropical convective storms to identify areas of agreement and disagreement.

DelGenio, Anthony D.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Cirrus radiative characteristics and the radiative impact of small particles

An understanding of the way radiation interacts with clouds is vital for understanding the sensitivity of the earth's climate to both natural and anthropogenic changes in the atmosphere. Cirrus clouds are thought to be an important modulator of climate sensitivity. The feedback effect of cirrus on climate can be positive or negative depending upon the microphysics and scattering properties of the cloud. These properties of cirrus clouds are not well understood partly because of their thin tenuous nature and partly because of their microphysical properties. The high altitude and cold temperatures within these clouds along with their transparency greatly increase the difficulty in which accurate measurements can be obtained and interpreted both by aircraft and remote sensing. Therefore, the understanding of the interaction of radiation in cirrus clouds is crucial to determining the ways in which these clouds interact with climate forcings. The sensitivity of the radiative budgets of cirrus cloudiness to their microphysical composition and the environments in which they occur is examined. Especially important is the impact of small particles on the radiative properties of cirrus. Remote sensing estimates of the effective crystal size of cirrus and in situ measurements show large differences up to 100 microns. Thus it becomes important to identify the sources of these differences. For this reason, simulations of actual FIRE cases are compared with the in situ radiative observations and inferences are made concerning the cause of the discrepancies.

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-27659-DND

The Arctic is warming fast, a trend expected to continue. Rapid Arctic warming has far-reaching implications affecting the global energy budget, sea level rise, the global carbon cycle, and potentially the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Our understanding of the forcing mechanisms driving Arctic climate change has rapidly evolved in the last decade. For 40 years, the melting of sea ice and snow has been implicated as the primary driver of amplified Arctic warming, however our results indicate a shift, whereby changes in the atmospheric temperature, humidity, and clouds have surpassed the warming effects of snow and sea ice loss in the latest CMIP5 model simulations. We examine the impacts of climate feedbacks on the Arctic surface energy budget: namely surface albedo, clouds, shortwave clear-sky feedbacks, longwave clear-sky feedbacks, ocean heat content, and surface turbulent fluxes. Simulations from 16 CMIP5 models running RCP8.5, a high-emission scenario are used. We employ the methodology used in Lu and Cai (2009) on a single CMIP3 model allowing an analysis of changes between CMIP3 and CMIP5.

Robyn C Boeke↗

NASA NTRS1990

Stratospheric dynamics

A global circulation model is being used to study the dynamical behavior of stratospheric planetary waves (waves having horizontal wavelengths of tens of thousands of kilometers) forced by growing cyclonic disturbances of intermediate scale, typically with wavelengths of a few thousand kilometers, which occur in the troposphere. Planetary scale waves are the dominant waves in the stratosphere, and are important for understanding the distribution of atmospheric trace constituents. Planetary wave forcing by intermediate scale tropospheric cyclonic disturbances is important for producing eastward travelling planetary waves of the sort which are prominent in the Southern Hemisphere during winter. The same global circulation model is also being used to simulate and understand the rate of dispersion and possible stratospheric climatic feedbacks of the El Chichon volcanic aerosol cloud. By comparing the results of the model calculation with an established data set now in existence for the volcanic cloud spatial and temporal distribution, stratospheric transport processes will be better understood, and the extent to which the cloud modified stratospheric wind and temperature fields can be assessed.

Young, Richard E.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Dependence of Cumulus Anvil Radiative Properties on Environmental Conditions in the Tropical West Pacific

Areally extensive, optically thick anvil clouds associated with mesoscale convective clusters dominate the shortwave cloud forcing in the tropics and provide longwave forcing comparable to that of thin cirrus. Changes in the cover and optical thickness of tropical anvils as climate warms can regulate the sign of cloud feedback. As a prelude to the study of MMCR data from the ARM TWP sites, we analyze ISCCP-derived radiative characteristics of anvils observed in the tropical west Pacific during the TOGA-COARE IOP. Anvils with radius greater than 100 km were identified and tracked from inception to decay using the Machado-Rossow algorithm. Corresponding environmental conditions just prior to the start of the convectove event were diagnosed using the Lin-Johnson objective analysis product. Small clusters (100-200 km radius) are observed to have a broad range of optical thicknesses (10-50), while intermediate optical thickness clusters are observed to range in size from 100 km to almost 1000 km. Large-size clusters appear to be favored by strong pre-storm large scale upward motion throughout the troposphere, moist low-to-midlevel relative humidities, environments with slightly higher CAPE than those for smaller clusters, and strong front-to-rear flow. Optically thick anvils are favored in situations of strong low-level moisture convergence and strong upper-level shear.

Ye, B.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Radiative-Convective Processes in Regulating Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere

Relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and cloud/water vapor reveals important information about radiative-climate feedbacks. Many previous studies have found that cloud amount and SST are positively correlated for SST between 28-29.5 C, for SST greater than 29.5 C, cloud amount actually decreases with increasing SST. The breakdown of SST-cloud correlation at 29.5 C was suggested to be related to the formation of localized hot spots with very high SST due to increased solar radiation in regions of strong subsidence forced by convection elsewhere. In this study, the breakdown is related to the radiative cooling in the subsidence regime over the cold pool surrounding the warm pool. We show model and observational evidence that radiative cooling over the cold pool limits the strength of SST-induced tropical circulation. As a result, occurrence of convection is also limited when SST contrast between the warm pool and cold pool is large.

Sui, C.-H.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Polarized Observations of Falling Snow from IMPACTS

The polarization of electromagnetic waves (radio waves and light) provides useful information on the dynamics and structure of precipitating storms. Polarization results from aligned precipitation particles interacting with the electromagnetic waves. This orientation is related to the dynamics of the weather system, and the orientation effects the radiative properties of the clouds (which is related to climate sensivity and feedbacks). We use observations from the Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Storms (IMPACTS), a NASA field campaign aiming to understand winter storms that regularly impact the East Coast of the United States, to understand the relationship between properties of snowstorms and polarization of millimeter waves (89 GHz and 166 GHz). We see that height and intensity are strong indicators of the polarization signatures observed in these systems.

Ian S Adams↗

NASA NTRS1984

Cloud and ice in the planetary scale circulation and in climate

The roles of the cryosphere, and of cloud-radiative interactions are investigated. The effects clouds and ice have in the climate system are examined. The cloud radiation research attempts explain the modes of interaction (feedback) between raditive transfer, cloud formation, and atmospheric dynamics. The role of sea ice in weather and climate is also discussed. Models are used to describe the ice and atmospheric dynamics under study.

Herman, G. F.↗