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Ocean-Land Teleconnections and Chaotic Atmospheric Variability in Climate Models, with Implications for Real-World Behavior

This study introduces a unique approach to estimating a fundamental but unmeasurable property of Nature: ρo 2 , the fraction of the variance of a given meteorological variable that is determined by boundary forcing (specifically, SSTs) as opposed to chaotic atmospheric dynamics. Here, we focus on continental monthly-averaged near-surface air temperature, or T2M. Rather than determining the fractions of SST-explained T2M variance found for a specific atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and then assuming that these fractions also represent Nature, we perform an analysis that entails: (i) evaluating a specific AGCM’s ability to capture observed variability with an infinite number of ensemble members, (ii) quantifying the degree to which different modeling systems agree on SST-land teleconnections, and (iii) combining these results into our novel estimates of ρo 2 . The derived ρo 2 fields suggest, with caveats, that AGCMs tend to overestimate the fraction of explained T2M variance (the signal-to-total variance ratio) in the Tropics.

Randal D Koster↗
NASA NTRS2000

Chaotic Celestial Pachinko

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Chaotic orbits Space missions La Grange Points↗
NASA NTRS1973

The case for a chaotic cosmogony.

The question of the significance of the galaxies for the structure and the evolution of the universe is considered, giving attention to the possibility that galaxies are merely local perturbations, superficialities in an otherwise homogeneous universe. Means of manufacturing galaxies in the context of Einstein's theory are examined. It appears that a wide range of possible anisotropic universes should generate a residual vorticity. Density fluctuations occur as a basis for the origin of galaxies.

Silk, J.↗
NASA NTRS1978

The chaotic solar nebula - Evidence for episodic condensation in several distinct zones

Abundances of rare earth elements in Allende inclusions are considered along with the rim sequence on coarse-grained chondrules. It is found that in at least several zones the nebula went through episodes of condensation and gas/grain separation. Four separate zones are required to make the two types of fine-grained aggregates and the two types of coarse-grained chondrules. Other types of inclusions in Allende, such as the olivine aggregates, may well require additional condensation zones. All of these conclusions are based on data from one meteorite. Although the details of the gas/grain separation mechanism in these zones is not well understood, it is clear that a single monotonic-cooling condensation sequence followed by isolation of grains from gas cannot account for the observations.

Boynton, W. V.↗
NASA NTRS1979

An energy-balance model with multiply-periodic and quasi-chaotic free oscillations

A slightly modified version of the one-dimensional time-dependent energy-balance climate model of Ghil and Bhattacharya (1978) is presented. The albedo-temperature parameterization has been reformulated and the smoothing of the temperature distribution in the tropics has been eliminated. The model albedo depends on time-lagged temperature in order to account for finite growth and decay time of continental ice sheets. Two distinct regimes of oscillatory behavior which depend on the value of the albedo-temperature time lag are considered.

Bhattacharya, K.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Synchrotron Emission from Chaotic Stellar Winds

A model is presented for the radio emission from hot stars. Electrons are accelerated to relativistic energies by shocks in the wind near the star and emit radio radiation through the synchrotron mechanism. The particle spectrum and radio spectrum for this model are derived. The model accounts for many of the observed characteristics of some recently discovered stars which have peculiar radio emission.

White, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Chaotic asymmetric convection in the Bridgman-Stockbarger technique

Convection was observed in naphthalene in a vertical Bridgman-Stockbarger arrangement. Differing from the assumptions of the theorists, the flow was neither steady nor axi-symmetric because of the heating and cooling conditions employed. It is suggested that such irregular convection may be common and cause compositional striations and azimuthal composition variations.

Potts, H.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The onset of time-dependent convection in spherical shells as a clue to chaotic convection in the earth's mantle

This work presents a detailed numerical study of the dynamical behavior of convection in a spherical shell, as applied to mantle convection. From both two-dimensional (120 radial and 360 tangential points) and three-dimensional (60 radial levels and spherical harmonics up to order and degree L = 33, m = 33), it is shown that for a spherical shell (with inner-to-outer radii ratio eta = 0.62) convection becomes time-dependent, with l = 2 dominating, at a Rayleigh number of about 31 times supercritical for a constant-viscosity, base-heated configuration. This secondary instability is characterized by oscillatory time dependence, with higher frequencies involved, at slightly higher Rayleigh numbers. In illustrating the onset of time dependence, the analysis is extended to show that the onset of weak turbulence in spherical-shell convection takes place at about 60 times the critical Rayleigh number via a quasi-periodic mode.

Machetel, Philippe↗
NASA NTRS1988

The theoretical and experimental study of the nonlinear and chaotic response of curved panels to intense acoustic excitation

Assuming a single-mode transverse displacement, a simple formula is derived for the transverse load-displacement relationship of a plate under in-plane compression. The formula is used to derive a simple analytical expression for the nonlinear dynamic response of postbuckled plates under sinusoidal or random excitation. The highly nonlinear motion of snap-through can be easily interpreted using the single-mode formula. Experimental results are obtained using buckled and cylindrical aluminum panels using discrete frequency and broadband excitation of mechanical and acoustic forces.

Ng, C. F.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Chaotic flows and fast magnetic dynamos

The kinematic dynamo problem is considered in the R(m) approaching infinity limit. It is shown that the magnetic field tends to concentrate on a zero volume fractal set; moreover, it displays arbitrarily fine-scaled oscillations between parallel and antiparallel directions. Consideration is given to the relationship between the dynamo growth rate and quantitative measures of chaos, such as the Liapunov element and topological entropy.

Finn, John M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Chaotic rhythms of a dripping faucet

An experiment was conducted which showed that a leaky faucet can offer valuable insights on predicting fluid flow. In this experiment, a flow control and drop detector were connected to the printer port of an IBM PC, which computed and saved the time intervals using a program for droptime compiled with Turbo C. It is noted that the time intervals change from periodic to doubly periodic as the flow rate is increased and then to various forms of chaos, interrupted by windows of periodicity. A number of two- and three-dimensional plots are displayed and discussed. Attention is focused on one of the simpler plots which is approximately parabolic, where each successive time interval is a quadratic function of the preceding interval, with a steepness which depends upon the flow rate. It is shown that a single past analog can predict a dripping faucet with reasonable accuracy 7-10 drops ahead. While such methods are more difficult to apply in higher-dimensional systems, this experiment aids in understanding how fluid flow may be predicted even under conditions of unstable flows caused by increase in velocity.

Cahalan, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The chaotic dynamics of comets and the problems of the Oort cloud

The dynamic properties of comets entering the planetary zone from the Oort cloud are discussed. Even a very slight influence of the large planets can trigger stochastic cometary dynamics. Multiple interactions of comets with the large planets produce diffusion of the parameters of cometary orbits and a mean increase in the semi-major axis of comets. Comets are lifted towards the Oort cloud, where collisions with stars begin to play a substantial role. The transport of comets differs greatly from the customary law of diffusion and noticeably alter cometary distribution.

Sagdeev, Roald Z.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Chaotic appearance of the AE index

Results are reported from a stochastic analysis of a 5-day time series of the geomagnetic AE index during an active period. The original data, the power spectrum, and the autocorrelation function are shown, and the steps in the analysis are described in detail. It is found that the autocorrelation time scale is about 50 min, giving a correlation dimension (for the construction of a time series of m-dimensional vectors) of 2.4. This result is consistent with either colored-noise or deterministic-chaos magnetosphere models, indicating the need for further investigation.

Shan, L.-H.↗