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DOE OSTI2022

Progress Towards a Predictive Eagle Behavior and Risk Modeling Framework: Overview and Recent Validation Efforts

This presentation summarizes progress to date of the U.S. Department of Energy project, "Development of a computational framework for modeling golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) near wind farms," which focuses on stochastic behavioral modeling of soaring raptors across landscape, facility, and turbine spatiotemporal scales. This publicly available, open-source modeling framework includes behavioral models based on three different underlying principles: energy minimization at landscape scale, behavioral heuristics at landscape-facility scale, and data-driven behaviors at the facility-micro-scale. We will briefly overview the key advancements in the behavioral modeling state of the art, which leverages multiple high-resolution telemetry data sources combined with high-fidelity atmospheric flow modeling insights. We then present preliminary results from a validation study in Altamont, California. This new study involves a novel application of the Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator (SSRS), in a new geographic locale, to understand facility scale eagle movement patterns over time scales representative of a wind project's lifetime. For this desktop analysis (that does not depend on any high-performance computing resources), SSRS simultaneously considers a variety of wind conditions and eagle approach vectors toward a project site of interest. This work demonstrates the integration of publicly available landscape-scale atmospheric datasets, our recently improved engineering updraft models (see presentation from Thedin et al.), and our energy minimization behavioral models within the SSRS framework. While we only present results from a single behavioral model, the integration of these three modeling components forms the foundation for our more sophisticated behavioral models (see presentations from Brandes et al., Sandhu et al.) that are under active development. Results are presented in the form of presence maps, which may be applied to estimate risk to wildlife, augment ground survey data, inform wind-plant operations, or incorporated into wind-plant designs.

agent-based modeling↗

DOE OSTI2025

E-scooter safety: How attitudinal factors influence risky behavior among shared e-scooter riders

In recent years, e-scooter usage for short-distance trips has grown rapidly. This surge in e-scooter use, combined with the high exposure of e-scooter riders to accident risk, has sparked concerns regarding e-scooter safety. Despite some studies focusing on e-scooter safety, little is known about how attitudinal factors lead e-scooter riders to engage in risky riding behaviors. In this paper, we developed a survey-based empirical model to identify the attitudinal factors influencing engagement in risky behaviors among e-scooter users. We used survey data collected from 420 shared e-scooter users in Chicago in 2022. The survey showed that 47.7% of respondents had experienced at least one collision or fall-off while riding e-scooters. We employed the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) to examine the relationships between latent attitudinal factors and risky behavior engagement. Moreover, we conducted Permutation Multi-group Analysis (PMGA) to assess the moderating effect of socio-demographic factors within the estimated model. The findings suggest that riders’ unsafe riding attitude and riding confidence are the most influential factors shaping their risky behavior engagement. In addition, accident experience, infrastructure suitability, perceived enjoyment, traffic risk perception, and operational risk perception are among the other significant predictors. Among socio-demographic factors, gender, age, education, and car use frequency significantly influence riders’ engagement in risky behaviors. The results highlight the importance of infrastructure suitability and accident experience in analyzing e-scooter users’ riding behavior. The developed model advances our understanding of factors contributing to e-scooter riders’ risky behavior engagement. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and e-scooter vendors aiming to mitigate e-scooter users’ accident risk. Specifically, we recommend three safety countermeasures: (1) safety training programs to encourage a safer attitude, (2) practice-based initiatives to enhance riding confidence, and (3) infrastructure improvements, especially the expansion of bike lanes.

E-scooter↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bridging confined phase behavior of CH 4 -CO 2 binary systems across scales

Phase behavior of confined fluids may deviate significantly from that of the bulk fluid due to the fluid-wall interactions being a significant portion of all intermolecular interactions under confinement. Despite recent advancements in understanding confined phase behavior of pure fluids, confined phase behavior of mixtures remains an understudied topic. In this work, we examine the confined phase behavior of a CH 4 -CO 2 binary system by combining Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, a cubic equation of state (EoS), and the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM). First, the effects of confinement on density and phase distribution in nano-size pores are established using Gibbs Ensemble MC calculations, which produce precise results of liquid and vapor confined pressures and account for the modification of the phase change location. By comparing the phase envelopes of bulk and confined mixtures at a fixed temperature, here it is observed that the phase envelopes shrink with reductions in pore size. Based on this observation, we extend a modified Peng-Robinson EoS, which was originally developed for pure fluids under confinement, to mixtures via van-der-Waals-type mixing rules and by accounting for shifts in the critical properties of confined CH 4 -CO 2 . The resulting phase envelopes are in good agreement with the MC data. In addition, a local density model is used in combination with the confined EoS to calculate adsorption isotherms of CH 4 -CO 2 mixtures and to characterize the behavior of confined matter in nanopores. Finally, we incorporate this EoS in a multicomponent multiphase LBM that uses a pseudopotential model to represent intermolecular forces. This workflow utilizes multiscale simulation techniques to bridge the behavior of multicomponent systems across scales and to shed light on the confined phase behavior of CH 4 -CO 2 binary systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Turbine-Level Risk to Golden Eagles Using a High-Fidelity Updraft Model and a Stochastic Behavioral Model

To minimize the effects of wind farms on Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) populations while enabling sustainable development of renewable energy resources, it is important to understand how eagles interact with atmospheric flows, terrain features, and anthropogenic structures. Models that predict migratory flight paths provide one tool that helps us grasp how the location of wind farms may influence interactions and impacts on migrating Golden Eagles. The current state-of-the-art in predicting migratory flight paths uses a deterministic fluid-flow analogy to predict eagle trajectory using only an orographic updraft potential computed from topographical features. This model does not take into account variables, such as thermal updrafts and time varying atmospheric conditions that are known to influence migratory behavior. In this work, we improve on the model with the objective of developing tools that advance our understanding of how atmospheric flows and terrain features affect migratory eagle behavior and their interactions with wind farms. Specifically, we 1) incorporate both orographic and thermal updraft information in simulating eagle flight paths; 2) incorporate stochasticity into eagle travel patterns to better capture the influence of exogenous factors on, and the inherent stochasticity of eagle behavior; 3) consider spatio-temporal atmospheric data at wind-farm-scale when computing updraft potential; and 4) account for how atmospheric conditions and the direction of migration change seasonally and how these changes affect eagle migratory flight behavior. We tested the model using a 50km by 50km region with 50 m resolution in the western United States. We simulated 900 independent, probabilistic eagle tracks during southerly and northerly migration, assuming eagles solely rely on orographic updrafts. The preliminary results indicate that the inclusion of finer resolution atmospheric data allows for the inclusion of realistic conditions that an eagle experiences. The stochasticity in eagle tracks provides a platform to include uncertainty in eagle decision making and help produce robust eagle presence maps. We will deploy updraft and downdraft velocities computed using a high-fidelity, wind farm scale, computational fluid dynamics solver under development at National Renewable Energy Laboratory. This work is a first step in the development of a predictive and generalizable eagle behavior model at the wind farm scale that does not rely on empirical data collection. Although the current model is intended for migratory eagles, we will extend and refine this model to inform the development of additional behavioral modes, including resident eagle behavior. This modeling approach improves our ability to understand eagle use of the landscape at a fine scale, and it is our hope that this work will ultimately help advance strategies that minimize the impact of wind development on Golden Eagle populations.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Unraveling the hysteretic behavior at double cations-double halides perovskite - electrode interfaces

Despite over a decade of research on metal halide perovskites (MHPs) in the context of photovoltaic applications, understanding the nature of electronic and ionic processes associated with current-voltage (I-V) hysteretic behavior has been limited. Here, we explore the hysteretic behavior in (FAPbI 3 ) 0.85 (MAPbBr 3 ) 0.15 perovskite devices with lateral Cr electrodes by applying first order reversal curve (FORC) bias waveform in I-V, Kelvin probe force microscopy (KPFM) measurements, and in-situ chemical imaging by time-resolved time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (tr-ToF-SIMS). In dark, we reveal pronounced hysteretic behaviors of charge dynamics in the off-field by probing time-dependent current and contact potential difference (CPD). Under illumination, transient and hysteretic behaviors are significantly reduced. The tr-ToF-SIMS results reveal that the hysteretic behaviors are strongly associated with accumulation of Br- ions at the interfaces. In addition, the low mobility MA + ions result in transient behavior and contribute to the hysteretic phenomena. It was shown that Pb 2+ ions can be reduced at the interfaces due to electrochemical reactions with the electrode in the presence of charge injection and photogenerated charges. Furthermore, these hysteretic behaviors associated with charge dynamics, ion migration, and interfacial electrochemical reaction are critical to further improve the performance and stability of MHPs photovoltaics and optoelectronics.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heterogeneous estimations of non-pharmaceutical mitigation behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of human behavior in mitigating the spread of disease. Nonetheless, human behavior is often overlooked in models of disease spread, particularly by underutilizing real-world data. We address this by estimating probabilities that individuals engage in behaviors that influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk during the COVID-19 pandemic, between September 2020 and June 2022. These behaviors include wearing a mask, using public transportation, spending time with others, avoiding contact with others, and going to work. Our estimates account for the age and sex of individuals and are generated for every county in the United States. We utilized multiple open-source datasets and United States Census data to produce these estimates. Multiple datasets were used for validation, showing our estimates demonstrated comparable accuracy and robustness. Our estimates aid in understanding human behavior dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and could be used to inform monthly or longer-term behavior in simulations of COVID-19. Moreover, the methods presented can be applied to other behaviors and features for future simulations of infectious disease.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Interpretable Machine Learning for Characterizing Electric Vehicle Charging Behavior: Insights from Real-World Data

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption rises globally, concerns about the impact on aging electrical grids grow, particularly regarding the charging behavior of EV drivers. This study analyzes real-world driving and charging data from Ford battery electric vehicles (BEVs) collected between 2018 and 2019 to develop interpretable models that characterize charging behavior and quantify influencing factors. Prior research has relied on assumptions regarding driver behavior, often overlooking actual charging patterns. By employing generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), this work offers insights into how various elements, such as next trip distance and state of charge (SOC), influence charging decisions. The dataset comprises over three million park-trip pairs from 1,997 vehicles, revealing that features related to driving behavior significantly dictate charging behavior, while infrastructure and regional factors have lesser impacts. The findings suggest that existing simulation models may oversimplify EV charging behavior assumptions. This work utilizes real-world EV driving and charging data to train interpretable models that describe charging behavior and quantify the factors most associated with how drivers use charging infrastructure. This research underscores the need for interpretable, data-driven methodologies to inform future EV infrastructure planning and grid management.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Explaining Health Risk Behaviors in the U.S. with Social Deprivation at Local and Regional Levels

Health risk behaviors are precursors to many chronic health outcomes, and hence, they pose a challenge to public health. Social deprivation undoubtedly creates circumstances that limit access to healthy habits. Moreover, broad regional effects (weather patterns, political ideology, social norms), and local characteristics (cultural notions and barriers, urban places) also influence lifestyle choices and must be accounted for to truly understand the impact of social deprivation on risky behaviors. This research fills the knowledge gap in epidemiological modeling of health risk behaviors by leveraging machine learning to find associations between social deprivation and health risk behaviors, when adjusted by regional and local effects. Four health risk behaviors, namely, binge drinking, smoking, lack of sleep, and lack of physical activity from the CDC PLACES project are considered in a single framework to understand and compare the interplay between local/regional characteristics and seven measures of social deprivation. Our results indicate that local and/or regional factors rise to the top for three out of four risk behaviors (binge drinking, smoking and lack of sleep) out-competing social deprivation measures. Un-entangling the geographical effects reveals that poverty, educational attainment and non-employment are the three deprivation measures most significantly associated with all four health risk factors. The research thus indicates that public health policies to promote healthy lifestyle behaviors must seek to remedy social deprivation, but using socially and culturally sensitive interventions.

Gokhale, Swapna↗

DOE OSTI2024

Different structural behavior of MgSiO 3 and CaSiO 3 glasses at high pressures

Knowledge of the structural behavior of silicate melts and/or glasses at high pressures provides fundamental information for discussing the nature and properties of silicate magmas in the Earth’s interior. The behavior of Si-O structures under high-pressure conditions has been widely studied, while the effect of cation atoms on the high-pressure structural behavior of silicate melts or glasses has not been well investigated. Here, in this study, we investigated the structures of MgSiO 3 and CaSiO 3 glasses up to 5.4 GPa by in situ X-ray pair distribution function measurements to understand the effect of different cations (Mg 2+ and Ca 2+ ) on high-pressure structural behavior of silicate glasses. We found that the structural behavior of MgSiO 3 and CaSiO 3 glasses are different at high pressures. The structure of MgSiO 3 glass changes by shrinking of Si-O-Si angle with increasing pressures, which is consistent with previous studies for SiO 2 and MgSiO 3 glasses. On the other hand, CaSiO 3 glass shows almost no change in Si-Si distance at high pressures, while the intensities of two peaks at ~3.0 and ~3.5 Å change with increasing pressure. The structural change in CaSiO 3 glass at high pressure is interpreted as the change in the fraction of the edge-shared and corner-shared CaO 6 -SiO 4 structures. The different high-pressure structural behavior observed in MgSiO 3 and CaSiO 3 glasses may be the origin of differences in properties, such as viscosity between MgSiO 3 and CaSiO 3 melts at high pressures. This signifies the importance of different structural behaviors due to different cations in investigations of the nature and properties of silicate magmas in Earth’s interior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

A level-of-details framework for representing occupant behavior in agent-based models

We report agent-based modeling is an advanced computational technique capable of representing complex and dynamic processes of human behavior in building performance simulation. Though the agent-based approach supports diverse applications concerning human behavior modeling within the built environment, there is no consensus on the optimal amount of information or level of granularity needed for occupant information representation. This paper attempts to formalize the level of details (LoD) needed for occupant behavior representation in agent-based environments. A novel framework, grounded on the concept of LoD, is proposed to select the required details in representing occupants in agent-based models. Ten attributes related to occupants' presence, movement, behavioral processes, and repertoire are considered to define the LoD. The framework identifies use case parameters as the guiding principle and allows a hybrid approach for selecting varying degrees of occupant attributes to serve the purpose of simulation. A discussion on the pertinence of different occupant behavior LoDs in relation to the desired objective and simulation context is also presented. The study intends to support the occupant behavior research by advancing agent-based occupant modeling in building performance simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Behavioral patterns of bats at a wind turbine confirm seasonality of fatality risk

Abstract Bat fatalities at wind energy facilities in North America are predominantly comprised of migratory, tree‐dependent species, but it is unclear why these bats are at higher risk. Factors influencing bat susceptibility to wind turbines might be revealed by temporal patterns in their behaviors around these dynamic landscape structures. In northern temperate zones, fatalities occur mostly from July through October, but whether this reflects seasonally variable behaviors, passage of migrants, or some combination of factors remains unknown. In this study, we examined video imagery spanning one year in the state of Colorado in the United States, to characterize patterns of seasonal and nightly variability in bat behavior at a wind turbine. We detected bats on 177 of 306 nights representing approximately 3,800 hr of video and > 2,000 discrete bat events. We observed bats approaching the turbine throughout the night across all months during which bats were observed. Two distinct seasonal peaks of bat activity occurred in July and September, representing 30% and 42% increases in discrete bat events from the preceding months June and August, respectively. Bats exhibited behaviors around the turbine that increased in both diversity and duration in July and September. The peaks in bat events were reflected in chasing and turbine approach behaviors. Many of the bat events involved multiple approaches to the turbine, including when bats were displaced through the air by moving blades. The seasonal and nightly patterns we observed were consistent with the possibility that wind turbines invoke investigative behaviors in bats in late summer and autumn coincident with migration and that bats may return and fly close to wind turbines even after experiencing potentially disruptive stimuli like moving blades. Our results point to the need for a deeper understanding of the seasonality, drivers, and characteristics of bat movement across spatial scales.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-fluid behavior in rapid compression machines: Does it matter?

Rapid compression machines (RCMs) have been extensively used to quantify fuel autoignition chemistry and validate chemical kinetic models at high-pressure conditions. Historically, the analyses of experimental and modeling RCM autoignition data have been conducted based on the adiabatic core hypothesis with ideal gas assumption, where real-fluid behavior has been completely overlooked, though this might be significant at common RCM test conditions. Here, this work presents a first-of-its-kind study that addresses two significant but overlooked questions for autoignition studies within RCMs in the fundamental combustion community: (i) experiment-wise, can unaccounted-for real-fluid behavior in RCMs affect the interpretation and analysis of RCM experimental data? and (ii) simulation-wise, can unaccounted-for real-fluid behavior in RCMs affect RCM autoignition modeling and the validation of chemical kinetic models? To this end, theories for real-fluid isentropic change are newly proposed and derived based on high-order Virial EoS, and are further incorporated into an effective-volume real-fluid autoignition modeling framework newly developed for RCMs. With detailed analyses, the strong real-fluid behavior in representative RCM tests is confirmed, which can greatly influence the interpretation of RCM autoignition experiments, particularly the determination of end-of-compression temperature and evolution of the adiabatic core in the reaction chamber. Furthermore, real-fluid RCM modeling results reveal that considerable error can be introduced into simulating RCM autoignition experiments when following the community-wide accepted effective-volume approach by assuming ideal-gas behavior, which can be as high as 64% in the simulated ignition delay time at compressed pressure of 125 bar and lead to contradictory validation results of chemical kinetic models. Therefore, we recommend the community to adopt frameworks with real-fluid behavior fully accounted for (e.g., the one developed in this study) to analyze and simulate past and future RCM experiments, so as to avoid misinterpretation of RCM autoignition experiments and eliminate the potential errors that can be introduced into the simulation results with the existing RCM modeling frameworks.

High-order Virial equation of state↗

DOE OSTI2022

Differing behavioral changes in crayfish and bluegill under short- and long-chain PFAS exposures: Field study in Northern Michigan, USA

The emergent contaminant family, per- and poly-fluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS) has gained research attention due to their widespread detection and stability within the environment. Despite the growing amount of research on perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluoro-n-octanoic acid (PFOA) in aquatic organisms, investigations detailing behavioral and physiological effects of aquatic organisms exposed to a mixture of PFAS analytes in the wild have been limited. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential behavioral and histological effects of environmental exposure to PFAS compounds within multiple trophic levels of aquatic ecosystems. The current study investigates effects of environmentally relevant PFAS concentration exposures in crayfish (Faxonius immunis, F. rusticus, F. virilis) and bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) sourced from four water bodies in Northern Michigan. Antipredator response and foraging behavioral assays were used to investigate potential effects on crayfish; a swimming speed behavioral assay and liver and gill histology analysis were used to investigate potential effects on fish. Linear mixed model and multiple regression analyses resulted in significant relationships between tissue accumulation levels of long chain PFAS compounds and crayfish foraging and fish critical swimming speed responses. Crayfish foraging decreased and fish critical swim speeds increased with PFAS exposure which may lead to energetic and population concerns. Antipredator response in crayfish and liver and gill histology in fish were not significantly related to PFAS tissue or water concentrations. The sensitivity of crayfish and bluegill behavior contributes to the growing body of research regarding the differential toxicity of short-chain and long-chain PFAS compounds. The sensitivity of some aquatic organism behaviors to PFAS accumulated in tissue may have implications for PFAS transfer and alterations to ecosystem functioning; based on the results of this field study, further laboratory research is recommended to further evaluate these relationships.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integrated simulation of U-10Mo monolithic fuel swelling behavior

Here, a separate computational branch has been implemented within the DART (Dispersion Analysis Research Tool) computational code to simulate the swelling behavior of U-10Mo monolithic fuel under the operating conditions of high-power research and test reactors (RTRs). The monolithic branch of the DART code implements a mechanistic rate-theory-based fission-gas-behavior model for the calculation of fission gas swelling, as well as a suite of thermal, physical, and mechanical models to take into account various processes occurring in RTR fuels during irradiation. In order to accurately simulate and eventually predict U-10Mo monolithic fuel irradiation behavior, the code uses materials properties calculated with lower length-scale computational methods, such as gas atom diffusivity and U-Mo surface energy from atomic simulations and grain-morphology-specific recrystallization kinetics (recrystallized fuel volume fractions vs. fission density) predicted using the phase-field method. The remainder of fission gas behavior parameters used in the model were calibrated with measured intergranular bubble size distributions. With this integrated simulation approach, the swelling behavior of U-10Mo monolithic fuel was simulated for various initial grain sizes at different operating conditions and compared with measured data. Furthermore, because limited experimental data exist for parameter calibration detailed sensitivity studies for the important parameters used in the fission gas behavior model were performed in order to examine their impact on both intergranular gas bubble morphology at low fission density, and on total porosity at high fission density.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the behavioral realism of energy system models in light of the consumer adoption literature

Effective policymaking to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions demands an understanding of the complex drivers of, and barriers to, consumer adoption behavior via behaviorally realistic energy system models. Existing models tend to oversimplify by focusing on homogenized financial factors while neglecting consumer heterogeneity and non-monetary influences. This study develops and applies a comprehensive framework for evaluating the behavioral realism of consumer adoption models, informed by the adoption literature. It introduces a typology for factors influencing low-carbon technology adoption decisions: monetary and non-monetary factors relating to household characteristics, psychology, technological attributes, and contextual conditions. Next, reviews of the consumer adoption and decision-making literature identify the most influential adoption factor categories for distributed solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and air-source heat pumps. Finally, the extent to which a selection of energy system models accounts for these adoption factors is assessed. Existing models predominantly emphasize the economic aspects of technology, which are generally identified as the most important factors. Where the models fall short — in considering moderately important factor categories — sector-specific and agent-based models can offer more behaviorally realistic insights. This study sheds light on which types of factors are most important for consumer adoption decisions and investigates how well current models rise to the challenge of behavioral realism. The end-to-end analysis presented enables internally consistent comparisons across models and energy technologies. This research advances timely conversations on consumer adoption. It could inform more behaviorally realistic energy system modeling, and thereby more effective decarbonization policymaking.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advanced co-simulation framework for assessing the interplay between occupant behaviors and demand flexibility in commercial buildings

With buildings contributing significantly to electricity usage, enabling demand flexibility becomes a challenge, especially when accounting for occupant comfort. This study introduces an innovative co-simulation framework integrating multiple models: heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system, building zone load, indoor airflow, supervisory control, and occupant comfort and behavior. Uniquely, this framework allows for a comprehensive and dynamic analysis of building systems and occupant interactions in demand response events. Using this framework, we conducted a case study using a typical small office building model. Specifically, we focused on three areas: (1) the impact of indoor airflow modeling on energy use, occupant comfort, and behaviors forecasting, (2) the impact of occupant behaviors on demand flexibility, and (3) occupant comfort and behaviors under demand response events. Key performance indicators such as energy use, flexibility factor, durations of occupant discomfort and occupant behaviors were analyzed. Our findings indicated variations in energy usage and occupant comfort within demand flexibility events, marked by uncertainty boundaries, with variability in demand shedding up to 57.9%. Here, we concluded that this framework is suitable for analyzing typical commercial buildings and their HVAC systems in terms of demand flexibility potential under the impact of occupant behaviors.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Bayesian Approach for Quantifying Data Scarcity when Modeling Human Behavior via Inverse Reinforcement Learning

Computational models that formalize complex human behaviors enable study and understanding of such behaviors. However, collecting behavior data required to estimate the parameters of such models is often tedious and resource intensive. Thus, estimating dataset size as part of data collection planning (also known as Sample Size Determination) is important to reduce the time and effort of behavior data collection while maintaining an accurate estimate of model parameters. In this paper, we present a sample size determination method based on Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for a specific Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) model of human behavior, in two cases: 1) pre-hoc experiment design—conducted in the planning stage before any data is collected, to guide the estimation of how many samples to collect; and 2) post-hoc dataset analysis—performed after data is collected, to decide if the existing dataset has sufficient samples and whether more data is needed. Here, we validate our approach in experiments with a realistic model of behaviors of people with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) and illustrate how to pick a reasonable sample size target. Our work enables model designers to perform a deeper, principled investigation of effects of dataset size on IRL.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Mining and Validating Social Media Data for COVID-19–Related Human Behaviors Between January and July 2020: Infodemiology Study

Background: Health authorities can minimize the impact of an emergent infectious disease outbreak through effective and timely risk communication, which can build trust and adherence to subsequent behavioral messaging. Monitoring the psychological impacts of an outbreak, as well as public adherence to such messaging, is also important for minimizing long-term effects of an outbreak. Objective: We used social media data from Twitter to identify human behaviors relevant to COVID-19 transmission, as well as the perceived impacts of COVID-19 on individuals, as a first step toward real-time monitoring of public perceptions to inform public health communications. Methods: We developed a coding schema for 6 categories and 11 subcategories, which included both a wide number of behaviors as well codes focused on the impacts of the pandemic (eg, economic and mental health impacts). We used this to develop training data and develop supervised learning classifiers for classes with sufficient labels. Classifiers that performed adequately were applied to our remaining corpus, and temporal and geospatial trends were assessed. We compared the classified patterns to ground truth mobility data and actual COVID-19 confirmed cases to assess the signal achieved here. Results: We applied our labeling schema to approximately 7200 tweets. The worst-performing classifiers had F1 scores of only 0.18 to 0.28 when trying to identify tweets about monitoring symptoms and testing. Classifiers about social distancing, however, were much stronger, with F1 scores of 0.64 to 0.66. We applied the social distancing classifiers to over 228 million tweets. We showed temporal patterns consistent with real-world events, and we showed correlations of up to –0.5 between social distancing signals on Twitter and ground truth mobility throughout the United States. Conclusions: Behaviors discussed on Twitter are exceptionally varied. Twitter can provide useful information for parameterizing models that incorporate human behavior, as well as for informing public health communication strategies by describing awareness of and compliance with suggested behaviors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗