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DOE OSTI2026

Developing Methane Emissions Inventories by Fusing Airborne, Satellite, and Modeled Assessments: Comprehensive Surveys of the Anadarko and Haynesville Basin

The objective of this program is to create basin-specific methane emissions inventories of the Haynesville and Anadarko (Woodford shale) basins, based on truly basin-scale data collection and analysis. Emissions of natural gas, predominantly composed of methane, present a significant financial loss to the oil and gas sector and reduce the competitiveness of American energy sources. While large emissions, above 10 kg/h, occur at only a small percentage of oil and gas sites, they account for a disproportionately large volume of emissions. To address this, we executed a concurrent campaign combining cutting-edge bottom-up modeling with top-down aerial and satellite surveys to capture the heavy-tailed distribution of these large emissions to accurately characterize total emissions throughout both regions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Play-Based Exploration of CO 2 Storage in the Illinois Basin (Final Technical Report)

This report documents the results of "A Play-Based Exploration of CO₂ Storage in the Illinois Basin" (DE-FE0032366), a project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management and conducted by the Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS) at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign in partnership with Visage Energy. The project adapted play-based exploration (PBE), a systematic basin-scale evaluation methodology from the petroleum industry, to screen areas of Illinois for commercial geologic carbon storage (GCS) in Cambro-Ordovician strata. The traditional play concept was expanded to encompass three play element groups, subsurface geologic factors, surface features, and societal factors, yielding 24 play elements with defensible suitability criteria applied through a five-tier classification scheme. An integrated geospatial database was assembled from ISGS, MGSC, MRCI, NATCARB, and public data sources, supported by significant data-improvement work including correction of legacy well locations, digitization of more than 1,300 well construction records using the DOE CATALOG team's OGRRE tool, compilation of a statewide 2D seismic database, and production of a refined fault and fold geodatabase.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Behaviour of cadmium isotopes in sulfidic waters and sediments of the Black Sea: Implications for global cadmium cycling and the application of cadmium isotopes as a paleo-oceanographic proxy

The cadmium isotope system has found use as a tracer for biological productivity, redox and organic carbon burial in the oceans. There are, however, very few observational constraints on Cd isotopic behaviour in modern sulfidic marine conditions, limiting our understanding of the modern Cd cycle, and our ability to use Cd isotope measurements of ancient sedimentary deposits as a paleoceanographic proxy. Here we study the behaviour of dissolved Cd in the water column of the Black Sea and its incorporation into sediments on the basin floor. The isotopic composition of dissolved Cd in the upper ∼50 m of the Black Sea water column is controlled by a combination of biological uptake and regeneration along with mixing of river water and Mediterranean seawater. Cadmium declines to <2 % of its peak subsurface concentration within the zone of nitrate-reduction but above the sulfide chemocline. The isotopic composition of dissolved Cd below the sulfide chemocline evolves in a manner that is consistent with experimental Cd sulfide fractionation factors, providing field-based support for these earlier studies. In contrast, the stability of the dissolved Cd isotopic signature above the chemocline, despite a large reduction in dissolved Cd concentrations, is explained by diffusion towards the Cd-sulfide sink below the chemocline. Sediments accumulating in the deep Black Sea below the sulfide chemocline have isotopic compositions that are similar to dissolved Cd in its near-surface aqueous concentration maximum. Sediments accumulating at shallower depths have lighter isotopic compositions that are likely affected by non-sulfidic burial pathways mediated by macrofaunal mixing and diagenesis of shallow burial phases. Our study shows that the isotopic composition of bulk sediments accumulating under sulfidic conditions is similar to dissolved Cd in the upper water column, supporting its use as a paleo-chemical proxy for ancient seawater as long as basin-scale controls on open ocean seawater sources are considered. We show that Cd burial in the deep Black Sea, predominantly as CdS, accounts for ∼0.5–15 % of total annual Cd burial in the global ocean.

Biogeochemical cycles↗

DOE OSTI2024

Lagrangian Decomposition of the Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport at 26.5°N

Abstract The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a critical role in the global climate system through the redistribution of heat, freshwater and carbon. At 26.5°N, the meridional heat transport has traditionally been partitioned geometrically into vertical and horizontal circulation cells; however, attributing these components to the AMOC and Subtropical Gyre (STG) flow structures remains widely debated. Using water parcel trajectories evaluated within an eddy‐rich ocean hindcast, we present the first Lagrangian decomposition of the meridional heat transport at 26.5°N. We find that water parcels recirculating within the STG account for 37% (0.36 PW) of the total heat transport across 26.5°N, more than twice that of the classical horizontal gyre component (15%). Our findings indicate that STG heat transport cannot be meaningfully distinguished from that of the basin‐scale overturning since water parcels cooled within the gyre subsequently feed the northward, subsurface limb of the AMOC.

Tooth, Oliver J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Emergent Constraint Approach for Refining Regional Climate Model Projections of Peak Flow Timing

Abstract Global climate models (GCMs) are unable to produce detailed runoff conditions at the basin scale. Assumptions are commonly made that dynamical downscaling can resolve this issue. However, given the large magnitude of the biases in downscaled GCMs, it is unclear whether such projections are credible. Here, we use an ensemble of dynamically downscaled GCMs to evaluate this question in the Sierra‐Cascade mountain range of the western US. Future projections across this region are characterized by earlier seasonal shifts in peak flow, but with substantial inter‐model uncertainty (−25 ± 34.75 days, 95% confidence interval (CI)). We apply the emergent constraint (EC) method for the first time to dynamically downscaled projections, leading to a 39% (−28.25 ± 20.75 days, 95% CI) uncertainty reduction in future peak flow timing. While the constrained results can differ from bias corrected projections, the EC is based on GCM biases in historical peak flow timing and has a strong physical underpinning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Recent Tropical Cyclone Outer Size Increases in the Western North Atlantic

The outer size of a tropical cyclone (TC) plays a pivotal role in its impact through a modulation of wind duration, rainfall extent and storm surge. While global and basin scale trends in TC size have been examined previously, whether there have been regional changes over time remains unclear. Here, using a suite of observations and reanalyses, we detect an increasing TC outer size over the western North Atlantic during 1979–2022. Over the western subtropical North Atlantic where the largest changes are found, the area-averaged increase in the radius of 17 ms -1 winds is about 7.5% over this period. Analysis of the large-scale environment reveals that the air-sea thermodynamic state has become more favorable for storm intensification, and thereby expansion, over that region. Further, numerical model simulations link changes in the environment with those in storm size, and suggest a combination of natural variability and external forcing in driving them.

Balaguru, Karthik [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗

DOE OSTI2025

Pan-Pacific low-frequency modes of sea level and climate variability

Tide gauges provide a long observational record that can inform the nature of satellite-era basin-scale sea level trends. However, common signals must be extracted from geographically sparse records. Here, by applying low-frequency component analysis (LFCA) to tide gauge records and surface climate reconstructions, we isolate three coherent modes of Pacific Ocean variability that we ascribe to: a secular, greenhouse gas–driven climate change (LFC1); a nonlinear mode of variability with a reversal around 1980, potentially linked to aerosols (LFC2); and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (LFC3). Although sea level trend patterns reflect the superimposed contribution of all modes, satellite-era trends are dominated by an increasing phase of LFC2: They are thus potentially unrepresentative of both longer-term historical patterns and those expected in the future.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2024

ORION Code Infrastructure Upgrades

Prior to this update, ORION was capable of processing cases and data that spanned a single UTM zone and assumed that all spatial inputs were given in units of meters. During the 2024 SMART bridge funding period, we completed upgrades to the code that permit general spatial projections, basin-scale datasets, and units.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Xanthos-Lake Model Source Code

This repository contains the source code for Xanthos-Lake, a lake-modeling extension of the Xanthos framework that introduces a coupled lake component comprising the Xanthos-Lake Snow and Ice Model (xLSIM) and the Xanthos-Lake Water Balance Model (xLWBM). xLSIM is a basin-aware machine-learning model for lake snow, ice, and thermal conditions. It predicts monthly lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice fraction from meteorological forcing and lake surface-area information. It uses sequence-based deep-learning architectures, including Transformer and hybrid Long Short-Term Memory–Transformer (LSTM–Transformer) models, together with seasonal encoding, multi-lake learning, physical masking, and basin-level cryospheric and non-cryospheric classification. The training workflow uses Ray for scalable execution and includes optional Ray Tune hyperparameter optimization. Model predictions, observations, diagnostics, and feature-importance outputs are written in NetCDF. xLWBM is the water-balance component of the new lake framework. It simulates monthly lake storage, surface area, evaporation, inflow, outflow, and lake–groundwater exchange. It combines physical water-balance equations with calibrated bathymetric relationships, weir-based outlet flow, modified Penman open-water evaporation, groundwater head relaxation, Penman–Monteith snow and ice sublimation, and snow, ice, and thermal conditions supplied by xLSIM. The model calibrates lake parameters against satellite-derived surface-area data, using evaporation-based calibration where surface-area data are unavailable, and supports small, medium, and large lake classes. For large lakes, xLWBM is integrated with the managed-routing workflow so that lake storage and outflow interact directly with downstream river routing and reservoir operations. Together, xLSIM and xLWBM provide Xanthos with a coupled lake-modeling capability. xLSIM supplies the snow, ice, and thermal conditions that affect lake evaporation and snow- and ice-related water exchanges, while xLWBM translates those conditions into dynamic lake storage, surface area, evaporation, and discharge. In return, xLWBM supplies evolving lake surface area to xLSIM. This coupling enables Xanthos to represent lakes as active hydrologic components within basin-scale water-availability and routing simulations.

Machine Learning↗

NASA NTRS1984

The satellite altimeter as a platform for observation of the oceanic mesoscale

The use of the satellite radar altimeter as a platform to provide synoptic monitoring of the oceanic mesoscale is faced with two critical issues: removal of geoid error or contamination and election of optimum space/time sampling strategies. Long wavelength orbit determination errors are not critical problems for altimeter measurements of the basin scale circulation. Both issues are addressed within the constraints provided by orbital mechanics which dictates the laydown pattern of the satellite's groundtracks in space/time. Other issues which must be assessed are: adequate mission duration scales and the problems of geophysical noise sources and instrumental noise which degrade the effective alongtrack spatial resolution of the altimeter.

Mitchell, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Global mean sea surface computation based upon a combination of SEASAT and GEOS-3 satellite altimeter data

A mean sea surface map was computed for the global ocean areas between 70 deg N latitude and 62 deg S latitude based upon the 70 day SEASAT and 3.5 year GEOS-3 altimeter data sets. The mean sea surface is presented in the form of a global contour map and a 0.25 deg x 0.25 deg grid. A combination of regional adjustments based upon crossover techniques and the subsequent adjustment of the regional solutions into a global reference system was employed in order to minimize the effects of radial orbit error. A global map of the crossover residuals after the crossover adjustments are made is in good agreement with earlier mesoscale variability contour maps based upon the last month of SEASAT collinear data. This high level of agreement provides good evidence that relative orbit error was removed to the decimeter level on a regional basis. This represents a significant improvement over our previous maps which contained patterns, particularly in the central Pacific, which were due to radial orbit error. Long wavelength, basin scale errors are still present with a submeter amplitude due to errors in the PGS-S4 gravity model. Such errors can only be removed through the improvement of the Earth's gravity model and associated geodetic parameters.

Marsh, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Spectroscopic analysis of global tide gauge sea level data

Yearly and monthly global tide-gage sea-level data are fitted to numerically generated tidal data in order to search for the 18.6-yr lunar nodal tide and 14-month pole tide. Both of these tides are clearly evident, with amplitudes and phases that are consistent with a global equilibrium response. The ocean's response to atmospheric pressure is studied with the least-squares fit technique. Consideration is given to the global rise in sea level, the effects of postglacial rebound, and the possible causes of the enhanced pole tides in the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the Gulf of Bothnia. The results support O'Connor's (1986) suggestion that the enhanced pole tide in these regions is due to meteorological forcing rather than a basin-scale resonance. Also, the global average of the tide-gage data show an increase in sea level over tha last 80 yr of between 1.1 and 1.9 mm/yr.

Trupin, A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Carbon monoxide over the Amazon Basin during the wet season

Measurements of the distribution of carbon monoxide in the lower atmosphere (150-5000 m) over the Amazon region of Brazil during the wet season, taken in conjunction with the 1987 NASA Global Tropospheric Experiment/Amazon Boundary Layer Experiment (ABLE 2B), are analyzed. About 100 hr of airborne, in situ CO measurements were obtained using a tunable diode laser system, providing insights into factors influencing the basin-scale distribution of CO in the Amazonian troposphere during wet season conditions. Distribution of CO over the altitudes 0.15-4.5 km was influenced by such factors as surface emissions from biological sources and long-range transport of pollutants from Northern Hemisphere sources. It is noted that the disruption of mixed layer growth and decay processes has a particularly important influence on CO concentration in the daytime lower troposphere and that the correlation of CO with O3 was positive under conditions influenced by Northern Hemisphere air and negative under all other conditions observed.

Harriss, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Fitting dynamic models to the Geosat sea level observations in the tropical Pacific Ocean. I - A free wave model

Free, equatorially trapped sinusoidal wave solutions to a linear model on an equatorial beta plane are used to fit the Geosat altimetric sea level observations in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The Kalman filter technique is used to estimate the wave amplitude and phase from the data. The estimation is performed at each time step by combining the model forecast with the observation in an optimal fashion utilizing the respective error covariances. The model error covariance is determined such that the performance of the model forecast is optimized. It is found that the dominant observed features can be described qualitatively by basin-scale Kelvin waves and the first meridional-mode Rossby waves. Quantitatively, however, only 23 percent of the signal variance can be accounted for by this simple model.

Fu, Lee-Lueng↗

NASA NTRS1992

Tropical Pacific Ocean response to observed winds in a layered general circulation model

The effect of forcing by monthly wind-stress variability is assessed with respect to the behavior of an isopycnic coordinate general circulation model. The isopycnic model incorporates an embedded mixed layer, and the equations are given for the interior layers, the surface mixed layer, and the atmospheric forcing. The anomalous variability of several variables is examined in a simulation using data from 1970-1985 with specific attention given to the anomalous response related to the 1982-1983 ENSO. The model fields describing sea-surface temperature (SST), sea level, and currents are found to be comparable to those reported from observational campaigns. Anomalous values of SST compare best with observed data when averaged over large spatial regions, and the amplitudes of the mean horizontal currents and anomalous zonal currents are comparable except with respect to amplitude data. The present study permits the simulation of basin-scale tropical Pacific mixed-layer depth and the mean vertical velocity field.

Miller, Arthur J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Ocean dynamics in the Nordic Seas using satellite altimetry

The main objective of this TOPEX/POSEIDON project is to integrate the accurately measured sea surface topography, as resolved by both TOPEX/POSEIDON radar altimeters, into the above-mentioned quantitative studies of the short- and long-term variations in the mesoscale ocean dynamics of the Nordic Seas south of 66 deg N. This implies: (1) comparison and validation of the capability to resolve the general basin-scale circulation and the mesoscale variability by, respectively, radar altimeters and numerical ocean circulation models; (2) calibration and validation of the altimeter-derived sea surface topography against in situ measurements from research vessels and moorings, particularly under extreme wind and wave conditions; and (3) improved monitoring and understanding of the flux variations between the North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas, both on the short and seasonal time scales.

Pettersson, Lasse H.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Application of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry measurements to observational and modeling studies of the low-frequency upper ocean mass and heat circulation in the tropical Pacific

The main purpose of the proposed work is to describe the seasonal and interannual variability of the upper ocean mass and heat transport in the tropical Pacific and to understand the mechanisms responsible for these transports. This will be done through a combination of experimental and modeling approaches. Remotely sensed sea level and derived current, observed on the basin scale, will be compared, analyzed, and combined with routine and enhanced in situ measurements of thermal and current field, as well as with model solutions forced by satellite-derived estimates of momentum and heat fluxes. The practical scientific rationale for this work stems from the unique data sets collected by (or easily available to) the investigator's team and from the team members' complementary backgrounds (physical oceanography and meteorology) and expertise (in situ and satellite-observation analysis and numerical ocean modeling).

Picaut, Joel↗