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At least 109 records · Page 6

National population mapping from sparse survey data: A hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to account for uncertainty

Population estimates are critical for government services, development projects, and public health campaigns. Such data are typically obtained through a national population and housing census. However, population estimates can quickly become inaccurate in localized areas, particularly where migration or displacement has occurred. Some conflict-affected and resource-poor countries have not conducted a census in over 10 y. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate population numbers in small areas based on enumeration data from sample areas and nationwide information about administrative boundaries, building locations, settlement types, and other factors related to population density. We demonstrated this model by estimating population sizes in every 10- m grid cell in Nigeria with national coverage. These gridded population estimates and areal population totals derived from them are accompanied by estimates of uncertainty based on Bayesian posterior probabilities. The model had an overall error rate of 67 people per hectare (mean of absolute residuals) or 43% (using scaled residuals) for predictions in out-of-sample survey areas (approximately 3 ha each), with increased precision expected for aggregated population totals in larger areas. This statistical approach represents a significant step toward estimating populations at high resolution with national coverage in the absence of a complete and recent census, while also providing reliable estimates of uncertainty to support informed decision making.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Residential energy demand, emissions, and expenditures at regional and income-decile level for alternative futures

Income and its distribution profile are important determinants of residential energy demand and carry direct implications for human well-being and climate. We explore the sensitivity of residential energy systems to income growth and distribution across shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathways scenarios using a global, integrated, multisector dynamics model, Global Change Analysis Model, which tracks national/regional household energy services and fuel choice by income decile. Nation/region energy use patterns across deciles tend to converge over time with aggregate income growth, as higher-income consumers approach satiation levels in floorspace and energy services. However, in some regions, existing within-region inequalities in energy consumption persist over time due to slow income growth in lower income groups. Due to continued differences in fuel types, lower income groups will have higher exposure to household air pollution, despite lower contributions to greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that the share of income dedicated to energy is higher for lower deciles, with strong regional differences.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Electromagnetic Transient (EMT) Simulation Algorithm for Evaluation of Photovoltaic (PV) Generation Systems

Use of inverter-based resources facilitating renewable energy resources such as photovoltaic (PV) generation is increasing rapidly with decreasing costs and reduced emissions associated. To accommodate such rapid growth of inverter-based resources like PV systems, electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation models of both PV systems and grids are required to analyze the interaction of PVs in the grid (like the post-event analysis). In addition, the EMT simulation would help with the planning of future power grid with a large number of PVs as well as other inverter-based distributed generation systems. In this paper, the EMT simulation models of PV systems and grids are developed based on the differential algebraic equations (DAEs) representing their EMT dynamics. Furthermore, advanced simulation algorithms including numerical stiffness-based hybrid discretization, DAE clustering and aggregation, multi-order integration, and matrix splitting approaches are applied to accelerate the EMT simulation. The proposed algorithm was applied to 125 PV inverters within 52-bus medium-voltage (MV) distribution grid.

Choi, Jongchan↗

Reduced-Order Models of Static Power Grids based on Spectral Clustering

For large-scale interconnected power systems that cover large geographical areas, certain electrical studies are required so that appropriate decisions ensure system reliability and low cost. For such studies, it is often neither practical nor necessary to model in detail the entire power system, which is increasingly complex due to a more diverse range of grid assets to choose from in both short and long-term planning. The goal of this paper is to present a methodology to reduce the order of large-scale power networks based on spectral graph theory given that current methods for static network reduction are not scalable. A brief analysis of some spectral clustering properties to determine which graph Laplacian matrix should be used and why is included. The analysis shows that the utilization of the normalized graph Laplacian is more advantageous for clustering purposes. Techniques are proposed to approximate cost functions for the aggregated generators. This is done via linear regression. The reduced-order model obtained with the proposed methodology has an accuracy above 94% and solves the scalability issue commonly present in other reduction methods. If the utilization of the reduced-order model is either constrained to load levels above mid-peak demand, or cost functions of aggregated units are approximated via a piecewise quadratic approach, then the error distribution is in the order of 10^-3. .

Baquedano-Aguilar, Mario D.↗

TrustDER: Trusted, Private and Scalable Coordination of Distributed Energy Resources

In this project, the Stanford and SLAC Teams have developed a Trusted, Private and Scalable platform for coordinating Coordination of Distributed Energy Resources (TrustDER). This is a layered system that ensures private, trusted and scalable coordination and monitoring of DERs. It accommodates a variety of resources, such as solar generation, gensets and loads, with a particular focus on battery systems-based resources, as they are a transformational technology experiencing fast growth in adoption by large critical facilities. The platform can be used as standalone or added to existing aggregation systems to enable trust, privacy and resilience. TrustDER consists of layers that address each of the shortcomings of the existing state of the art. Each layer in the platform can operate independently but provides information to the layers above it to enable a novel form of overall coordination architecture. The project consists of several tasks, with each task dedicated to the design of each layer. Task 2 Resource Virtualization defined a software abstraction layer for distributed energy resources (DERs). The goal of this abstraction was to simplify the implementation of algorithms utilizing cooperation of DERs resources in a variety of use cases. Task 3 is on Secure ID for Asset Authentication. Identity Management Systems (IDMS) are a foundational infrastructure for interactions between entities (organizations, users, devices, and services). Secure ID is blockchain-based a distributed identity management system allowing (1) identity provisioning, (2) authentication, (3) authorization, and (4) identity data sharing for IoT-enabled assets on the electricity grid. In this project, the SLAC team focused on designing and testing Keymaker, a protocol for authenticating device identity managed by Secure ID. Task 5 Private and Safe Integration is focused on the design and evaluation of a DER cooperation scheme which allows for the aggregation of DERs without impacting network reliability. The approach is designed based on realistic assumptions regarding data availability, communication infrastructure limitations, and privacy. Task 6 Scalable Distributed Privacy for Information explored how virtualized batteries could be managed privately. Specifically, it examined the case in which a principal provides a partitioned battery to multiple clients. Task 7 Use Cases was to ensure that this technology was applied in relevant situations and scenarios. Primarily, this means that virtualization needed to be employed in a manner that either improved flexibility, bolstered security or privacy, or decreased costs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

What Role Do Aggregators Play in Power System Security and Resilience?

Barriers to the participation of distributed energy resources (DERs) in wholesale electricity markets have limited the use of DERs for power system security and resilience. In September 2020, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved an order to reduce these barriers. FERC Order No. 2222 enables the participation of DER aggregators in wholesale electricity markets. DERs include renewable generation and technologies that support the integration of renewable generation by increasing grid flexibility and resilience. Requiring wholesale energy markets to allow DER aggregator participation provides a path for DERs to become competitive in these markets. As the contribution from aggregated DERs continues to increase, the aggregator's role in supporting grid security and resilience will become more critical. This paper reviews work that demonstrates how DER aggregators can provide resilience support through technical capabilities, operational strategies, and secure communication architectures. Socioeconomic influences and impacts of aggregators, including implications for social resilience, are presented. In surveying the current state-of-the-art across different but interconnected topics, we illustrate how aggregators can be power system participants that enhance grid security. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to enhancing resilience in a power grid that includes a growing cohort of DER aggregators, but there are many options for aggregators to contribute to a more resilient and secure power grid.

aggregator↗

A consistent dataset for the net income distribution for 190 countries and aggregated to 32 geographical regions from 1958 to 2015

Abstract. Data on income distributions within and across countries are becoming increasingly important for informing analysis of income inequality and understanding the distributional consequences of climate change. While datasets on income distribution collected from household surveys are available for multiple countries, these datasets often do not represent the same concept of inequality (or income concept) and therefore make comparisons across countries, over time and across datasets difficult. Here, we present a consistent dataset of income distributions across 190 countries from 1958 to 2015 measured in terms of net income. We complement the observed values in this dataset with values imputed from a summary measure of the income distribution, specifically the Gini coefficient. For the imputation, we use a recently developed nonparametric principal-component-based approach that shows an excellent fit to data on income distributions compared to other approaches. We also present another version of this dataset aggregated from the country level to 32 geographical regions. Our dataset is developed for the purpose of calibrating models such as integrated human–Earth system models with detailed data on income distributions. This dataset will enable more robust analysis of income distribution at multiple scales. The latest version of our data are available on Zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7093997 (Narayan et al., 2022b).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

X-ray chemical imaging for assessing redox microsites within soils and sediments

Redox reactions underlie several biogeochemical processes and are typically spatiotemporally heterogeneous in soils and sediments. However, redox heterogeneity has yet to be incorporated into mainstream conceptualizations and modeling of soil biogeochemistry. Anoxic microsites, a defining feature of soil redox heterogeneity, are non-majority oxygen depleted zones in otherwise oxic environments. Neglecting to account for anoxic microsites can generate major uncertainties in quantitative assessments of greenhouse gas emissions, C sequestration, as well as nutrient and contaminant cycling at the ecosystem to global scales. However, only a few studies have observed/characterized anoxic microsites in undisturbed soils, primarily, because soil is opaque and microsites require µm-cm scale resolution over cm-m scales. Consequently, our current understanding of microsite characteristics does not support model parameterization. To resolve this knowledge gap, we demonstrate through this proof-of-concept study that X-ray fluorescence (XRF) 2D mapping can reliably detect, quantify, and provide basic redox characterization of anoxic microsites using solid phase “forensic” evidence. First, we tested and developed a systematic data processing approach to eliminate false positive redox microsites, i.e., artefacts, detected from synchrotron-based multiple-energy XRF 2D mapping of Fe (as a proxy of redox-sensitive elements) in Fe-“rich” sediment cores with artificially injected microsites. Then, spatial distribution of Fe II and Fe III species from full, natural soil core slices (over cm-m lengths/widths) were mapped at 1–100 µm resolution. These investigations revealed direct evidence of anoxic microsites in predominantly oxic soils such as from an oak savanna and toeslope soil of a mountainous watershed, where anaerobicity would typically not be expected. We also revealed preferential spatial distribution of redox microsites inside aggregates from oak savanna soils. We anticipate that this approach will advance our understanding of soil biogeochemistry and help resolve “anomalous” occurrences of reduced products in nominally oxic soils.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Molecular Mechanisms of Sorbed Ion Effects during Boehmite Particle Aggregation

Classical theories of particle aggregation, such as Derjaguin–Landau–Verwey–Overbeek (DLVO), do not explain recent observations of ion-specific effects or the complex concentration dependence for aggregation. Thus, here, we probe the molecular mechanisms by which selected alkali nitrate ions (Na + , K + , and NO 3 –) influence aggregation of the mineral boehmite (γ-AlOOH) nanoparticles. Nanoparticle aggregation was analyzed using classical molecular dynamics (CMD) simulations coupled with the metadynamics rare event approach for stoichiometric surface terminations of two boehmite crystal faces. Calculated free energy landscapes reveal how electrolyte ions alter aggregation on different crystal faces relative to pure water. Consistent with experimental observations, we find that adding an electrolyte significantly reduces the energy barrier for particle aggregation (~3–4×). However, in this work, we show this is due to the ions disrupting interstitial water networks, and that aggregation between stoichiometric (010) basal–basal surfaces is more favorable than between (001) edge–edge surfaces (~5–6×) due to the higher interfacial water densities on edge surfaces. The interfacial distances in the interlayer between aggregated particles with electrolytes (~5–10 Å) are larger than those in pure water (a few Ångströms). Together, aggregation/disaggregation in salt solutions is predicted to be more reversible due to these lower energy barriers, but there is uncertainty on the magnitudes of the energies that lead to aggregation at the molecular scale. By analyzing the peak water densities of the first monolayer of interstitial water as a proxy for solvent ordering, we find that the extent of solvent ordering likely determines the structures of aggregated states as well as the energy barriers to move between them. Further, the results suggest a path for developing a molecular-level basis to predict the synergies between ions and crystal faces that facilitate aggregation under given solution conditions. Such fundamental understanding could be applied extensively to the aggregation and precipitation utilization in the biological, pharmaceutical, materials design, environmental remediation, and geological regimes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Data driven discovery and quantification of hyperspectral leaf reflectance phenotypes across a maize diversity panel

Abstract Estimates of plant traits derived from hyperspectral reflectance data have the potential to efficiently substitute for traits, which are time or labor intensive to manually score. Typical workflows for estimating plant traits from hyperspectral reflectance data employ supervised classification models that can require substantial ground truth datasets for training. We explore the potential of an unsupervised approach, autoencoders, to extract meaningful traits from plant hyperspectral reflectance data using measurements of the reflectance of 2151 individual wavelengths of light from the leaves of maize ( Zea mays ) plants harvested from 1658 field plots in a replicated field trial. A subset of autoencoder‐derived variables exhibited significant repeatability, indicating that a substantial proportion of the total variance in these variables was explained by difference between maize genotypes, while other autoencoder variables appear to capture variation resulting from changes in leaf reflectance between different batches of data collection. Several of the repeatable latent variables were significantly correlated with other traits scored from the same maize field experiment, including one autoencoder‐derived latent variable (LV8) that predicted plant chlorophyll content modestly better than a supervised model trained on the same data. In at least one case, genome‐wide association study hits for variation in autoencoder‐derived variables were proximal to genes with known or plausible links to leaf phenotypes expected to alter hyperspectral reflectance. In aggregate, these results suggest that an unsupervised, autoencoder‐based approach can identify meaningful and genetically controlled variation in high‐dimensional, high‐throughput phenotyping data and link identified variables back to known plant traits of interest.

Tross, Michael C.↗

Dynamic Shaping of Grid Response of Multi-Machine Multi-Inverter Systems Through Grid-Forming IBRs

We consider the problem of controlling the frequency response of weakly-coupled multi-machine multi-inverter low-inertia power systems via grid-forming inverter-based resources (IBRs). In contrast to existing methods, our approach relies on dividing the larger system into multiple strongly-coupled subsystems, without ignoring either the underlying network or approximating the subsystem response as an aggregate harmonic mean model. Rather, through a structured clustering and recursive dynamic shaping approach, the frequency response of the overall system to load perturbations is shaped appropriately. We demonstrate the proposed approach for a three-node triangular configuration and a small-scale radial network. Furthermore, previous synchronization analysis for heterogeneous systems requires the machines to satisfy certain proportionality property. In our approach, the effective transfer functions for each cluster can be tuned by the IBRs to satisfy such property, enabling us to apply the shaping control to systems with a wider range of heterogeneous machines.

frequency-shaping control↗

Dynamic Shaping of Grid Response of Multi-Machine Multi-Inverter Systems Through Grid-Forming IBRs: Preprint

We consider the problem of controlling the frequency response of weakly-coupled multi-machine multi-inverter low-inertia power systems via grid-forming inverter-based resources (IBRs). In contrast to existing methods, our approach relies on dividing the larger system into multiple strongly-coupled subsystems, without ignoring either the underlying network or approximating the subsystem response as an aggregate harmonic mean model. Rather, through a structured clustering and recursive dynamic shaping approach, the frequency response of the overall system to load perturbations is shaped appropriately. We demonstrate the proposed approach for a three-node triangular configuration and a small-scale radial network. Furthermore, for small-scale radial microgrids, we demonstrate the ability of IBRs to tune the effective transfer functions of synchronous machines. This enables us to relax the uniform turbine time-constant assumptions and widen the scope of existing synchronization results for proportionally heterogeneous machines.

frequency-shaping control↗

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Report for Task 9: Viability of Data-Driven Approach for Outage Management (Deliverable D6))

This technical report is provided to US Department of Energy for progress made on the AGGERGATE project led by the Washington State University. This report is specifically related to the deliverable: ’D6: Technical report discussing the viability of the developed data-driven models and co-simulation architecture for models for operation in a real-world operational setting and the results of Tasks 1 to 8, summarizing the project findings and accomplishments to date’.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Improving MPI Collective I/O for High Volume Non-Contiguous Requests With Intra-Node Aggregation

Two-phase I/O is a well-known strategy for implementing collective MPI-IO functions. It redistributes I/O requests among the calling processes into a form that minimizes the file access costs. As modern parallel computers continue to grow into the exascale era, the communication cost of such request redistribution can quickly overwhelm collective I/O performance. In this study, this effect has been observed from parallel jobs that run on multiple compute nodes with a high count of MPI processes on each node. Furthermore, to reduce the communication cost, we present a new design for collective I/O by adding an extra communication layer that performs request aggregation among processes within the same compute nodes. This approach can significantly reduce inter-node communication contention when redistributing the I/O requests. We evaluate the performance and compare it with the original two-phase I/O on Cray XC40 parallel computers (Theta and Cori) with Intel KNL and Haswell processors. Using I/O patterns from two large-scale production applications and an I/O benchmark, we show our proposed method effectively reduces the communication cost and hence maintains the scalability for a large number of processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Use of a 360-Degree Underwater Camera to Characterize Artificial Reef and Fish Aggregating Effects around Marine Energy Devices

Marine energy devices must be attached to the seafloor by their foundations, pilings, or anchors, and will have other parts in the water column like the devices themselves, mooring lines, and power export cables running along the seafloor. The installation and presence of these artificial structures will create physical changes that can disrupt or create new habitats, and potentially alter the behavior of mobile organisms such as fish around a device by attracting them to these new artificial reefs and fish aggregating devices. In this study, we tested a new approach for monitoring fish activity around a marine energy device anchor: a 360-degree underwater camera to keep the target (a wave energy converter’s anchor) in the field of view of the camera. The camera was deployed in three configurations (hand-held, tripod, video lander) at sites with different hydrodynamics and underwater visibilities. The video lander was the best configuration: very stable, versatile, and easy to handle. The 360-degree field of view enabled observing and counting fishes, which were more abundant at dusk than dawn or noon, around the anchor. Despite remaining challenges, 360-degree cameras are useful tools for monitoring animal interactions with marine energy devices.

360-degree camera↗

Multiscale assessment of North American terrestrial carbon balance

Abstract. Comparisons of carbon uptake estimates from bottom-up terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) to top-down atmospheric inversions help assess how well we understand carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere. Previous comparisons have shown varying levels of agreement between bottom-up and top-down approaches, but they have almost exclusively focused on large, aggregated scales (e.g., global or continental), providing limited insights into reasons for the mismatches. Here we explore how consistency, defined as the spread in net ecosystem exchange (NEE) estimates within an ensemble of TBMs or inversions, varies with at finer spatial scales ranging from 1∘×1∘ to the continent of North America. We also evaluate how well consistency informs accuracy in overall NEE estimates by filtering models based on their agreement with the variability, magnitude, and seasonality in observed atmospheric CO2 drawdowns or enhancements. We find that TBMs produce more consistent estimates of NEE for most regions and at most scales relative to inversions. Filtering models using atmospheric CO2 metrics causes ensemble spread to decrease substantially for TBMs, but not for inversions. This suggests that ensemble spread is likely not a reliable measure of the uncertainty associated with the North American carbon balance at any spatial scale. Promisingly, applying atmospheric CO2 metrics leads to a set of models with converging flux estimates across TBMs and inversions. Overall, we show that multiscale assessment of the agreement between bottom-up and top-down NEE estimates, aided by regional-scale observational constraints is a promising path towards identifying fine-scale sources of uncertainty and improving both ensemble consistency and accuracy. These findings help refine our understanding of biospheric carbon balance, particularly at scales relevant for informing regional carbon-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving Performance of M-to-N Processing and Data Redistribution in In Transit Analysis and Visualization

In an in transit setting, a parallel data producer, such as a numerical simulation, runs on one set of ranks M, while a data consumer, such as a parallel visualization application, runs on a different set of ranks N. One of the central challenges in this in transit setting is to determine the mapping of data from the set of M producer ranks to the set of N consumer ranks. This is a challenging problem for several reasons, such as the producer and consumer codes potentially having different scaling characteristics and different data models. The resulting mapping from M to N ranks can have a significant impact on aggregate application performance. In this work, we present an approach for performing this M-to-N mapping in a way that has broad applicability across a diversity of data producer and consumer applications. We evaluate its design and performance with a study that runs at high concurrency on a modern HPC platform. By leveraging design characteristics, which facilitate an “intelligent” mapping from M-to-N, we observe significant performance gains are possible in terms of several different metrics, including time-to-solution and amount of data moved.

Loring, Burlen↗

Improving Performance of M-to-N Processing and Data Redistribution in In Transit Analysis and Visualization

In an in transit setting, a parallel data producer, such as a numerical simulation, runs on one set of ranks M, while a data consumer, such as a parallel visualization application, runs on a different set of ranks N: One of the central challenges in this in transit setting is to determine the mapping of data from the set of M producer ranks to the set of N consumer ranks. This is a challenging problem for several reasons, such as the producer and consumer codes potentially having different scaling characteristics and different data models. The resulting mapping from M to N ranks can have a significant impact on aggregate application performance. In this work, we present an approach for performing this M-to-N mapping in a way that has broad applicability across a diversity of data producer and consumer applications. We evaluate its design and performance with a study that runs at high concurrency on a modern HPC platform. By leveraging design characteristics, which facilitate an ''intelligent'' mapping from M-to-N, we observe significant performance gains are possible in terms of several different metrics, including time-to-solution and amount of data moved.

Loring, Burlen↗