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At least 109 records · Page 6

Can Common Pool Resource Theory Catalyze Stakeholder-Driven Solutions to the Freshwater Salinization Syndrome?

Freshwater salinity is rising across many regions of the United States as well as globally, a phenomenon called the freshwater salinization syndrome (FSS). The FSS mobilizes organic carbon, nutrients, heavy metals, and other contaminants sequestered in soils and freshwater sediments, alters the structures and functions of soils, streams, and riparian ecosystems, threatens drinking water supplies, and undermines progress toward many of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. There is an urgent need to leverage the current understanding of salinization’s causes and consequences–in partnership with engineers, social scientists, policymakers, and other stakeholders–into locally tailored approaches for balancing our nation’s salt budget. In this feature, we propose that the FSS can be understood as a common pool resource problem and explore Nobel Laureate Elinor Ostrom’s social-ecological systems framework as an approach for identifying the conditions under which local actors may work collectively to manage the FSS in the absence of top-down regulatory controls. We adopt as a case study rising sodium concentrations in the Occoquan Reservoir, a critical water supply for up to one million residents in Northern Virginia (USA), to illustrate emerging impacts, underlying causes, possible solutions, and critical research needs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Automated Cyber Security Testing Platform for Industrial Control Systems

Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are a complex system of coupled physics controlled by a network of Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs). These PLCs communicate process data across the network to coordinate control actions with each other and inform the operators of process variables and control decisions. Networking the PLCs allows more effective process control and provides the operator more information which results in more efficient plant operation. This interconnectivity creates new security issues, as operators have more access to the plant controls, so will bad actors. As plant networks become more digitized and encompass more sophisticated controllers, the network surface exposed to cyber interference grows. Understanding the dynamics of these coupled systems of physics, control logic, and network communications is critical to their protection. The research into the cybersecurity of the Operational Technologies of NPPs is developing and requires a platform that can allow high fidelity physics simulations to interact with digital networks of controllers. This will require three main components: a network simulation environment, a physics simulator, and virtual PLCs (vPLC) that represent typical industry hardware. A platform that incorporates these three components to provide the most accurate representation of actual NPP networks and controllers is developed in this paper.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Human Factors Virtual Analysis Techniques for NASA's Space Launch System Ground Support using MSFC's Virtual Environments Lab (VEL)

Using virtual environments to assess complex large scale human tasks provides timely and cost effective results to evaluate designs and to reduce operational risks during assembly and integration of the Space Launch System (SLS). NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) uses a suite of tools to conduct integrated virtual analysis during the design phase of the SLS Program. Siemens Jack is a simulation tool that allows engineers to analyze human interaction with CAD designs by placing a digital human model into the environment to test different scenarios and assess the design's compliance to human factors requirements. Engineers at MSFC are using Jack in conjunction with motion capture and virtual reality systems in MSFC's Virtual Environments Lab (VEL). The VEL provides additional capability beyond standalone Jack to record and analyze a person performing a planned task to assemble the SLS at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The VEL integrates Vicon Blade motion capture system, Siemens Jack, Oculus Rift, and other virtual tools to perform human factors assessments. By using motion capture and virtual reality, a more accurate breakdown and understanding of how an operator will perform a task can be gained. By virtual analysis, engineers are able to determine if a specific task is capable of being safely performed by both a 5% (approx. 5ft) female and a 95% (approx. 6'1) male. In addition, the analysis will help identify any tools or other accommodations that may to help complete the task. These assessments are critical for the safety of ground support engineers and keeping launch operations on schedule. Motion capture allows engineers to save and examine human movements on a frame by frame basis, while virtual reality gives the actor (person performing a task in the VEL) an immersive view of the task environment. This presentation will discuss the need of human factors for SLS and the benefits of analyzing tasks in NASA MSFC's VEL.

Searcy, Brittani↗

Gap Analysis of Global Climate Agreements

As climate change progresses, there will be greater pressure on state and nonstate actors to mitigate associated harms. This pressure will encourage aggressive action on climate change, including more ambitious emissions reduction goals and the use of both conventional and novel environmental modification techniques. Existing international agreements—including the Paris Agreement and the Environmental Modification Convention (ENMOD)—are critical to ensuring that climate change mitigation is achieved through peaceful, meaningful, and sustainable methods. With this in mind, this paper provides an overview of the Paris Agreement and ENMOD and identifies updates required for these agreements to meet the evolving challenges of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analyzing Infrastructure Interdependencies Using Network-Of-Networks Modeling

Infrastructure networks play a crucial role in our day-to-day lives, and modeling these infrastructure networks can help decisionmakers prepare for and respond to disruptions such as natural disasters or cyberattacks. Because these infrastructure networks depend on each other, it is not sufficient to model a single network in isolation. We build on previous single-network-modeling techniques to develop a methodology for modeling infrastructure interdependencies as a Network-of-Networks. Using distributionlevel data from a real U.S. city on the power grid, road geometry, and hospital locations, we show how to apply this methodology to modeling three of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's Critical Infrastructure Sectors: Healthcare, Transportation, and Energy. We also analyze three primary metrics before and after a simulated disaster: 1) impact on hospital access; 2) road network impact with the change in betweenness centrality; 3) electric customer outage. We simulate three different disruptions: 1) road flooding from nearby rivers; 2) a malicious actor targeting the road networks; 3) a malicious actor targeting the electric grid. Finally, we discuss how our methodology can be applied to additional infrastructure networks and types of disruption, and how Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques may be incorporated into this methodology for further research.

Scherrer, Evan [Drake University, Iowa]↗

Final Technical Report

Statement of the problem or situation that is being addressed in your application. The DOE and its national laboratories developed the Home Energy Score™ (HES) to encourage homeowners to improve their energy performance, lower costs and to share energy information through the MLS listing, appraisal, and financing channels. While the HES is an instrumental tool, it is currently underutilized and consists of technical, structural and sector barriers which need to be addressed in order to scale and many energy efficiency contractors are understandably overwhelmed by the added time and effort and lack of incentive to sell and deliver deep retrofit projects while simultaneously meeting the DOE HES program requirements; consequently, contractors may decide to forgo participation. Home Energy Rating System (HERS) Raters have the opportunity to play the critical Assessor role in producing a Home Energy Score (HES); this role has immense potential but currently is unfulfilled. Lastly, while utilities are interested in their customer base achieving greater energy efficiency, especially to help offset growing residential loads in states like California that are accelerating electrification, utilities do not have access to the market actors who are on the front line of influence to homeowners or review and approve their permits: HERS Raters, assessors, contractors and building departments. General statement of how this problem is being addressed: ConSol will integrate the Home Energy Score™ (HES) to its State of California, approved home energy rating services (HERS) platform (CHEERS) to develop a single tool for contractors nationwide to assess, record and install recommended cost, energy, and emissions saving measures to the 140 million single-family homes throughout the U.S. and 14 million homes in California (CHEERS+HES). The CHEERS high fidelity energy code permitting data will be integrated with HES for simple, accurate, easy-to-use home energy estimation and analysis and will directly gain access to the retrofit and renovations markets with the same upgraded platform. This innovative project will assist the utilities in supporting existing homes in their jurisdictions with HES and develop measures to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions. How is this problem being addressed? What is the overall project approach? In effort to expand the Home Energy Score™ (HES) by increasing the use of aggregable home energy asset data, ConSol proposes to integrate the DOE HES via Application Programming Interface (API) to its State of California approved home energy rating services platform (CHEERS). Once the CHEERS platform and HES are integrated (CHEERS+HES), this enhanced platform will be instantly available and actively deployed via Phase 1 pilot to HERS Raters, assessors and contractors in California to market-test the solution, understand the rate of adoption and identify opportunities for improvement prior to scaling nationally. The CHEERS high fidelity energy code permitting data will be integrated with HES for simple, accurate, easy-to-use home energy estimation and analysis and will directly gain access to the retrofit and renovations markets with the same upgraded platform. This innovative project will assist the building industry and homeowners with an easy-to-use assessment if energy and carbon impacts of existing homes, and assist the utilities in supporting existing homes in their jurisdictions with HES to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions. What is to be done in Phase I? During Phase I of this proposed project, ConSol will (1) design software architecture that links CHEERS to the Home Energy ScoreTM via API, (2) solicit partnership from one or more California utilities for a regional pilot, (3) test the new software with its HERS Raters and contractor network in the partnership utility jurisdiction, (4) launch a pilot version of the newly developed software with HERS Raters and contractors in the utility territory, and (5) explore California’s GoGreen energy efficiency homeowner lending program in parallel with the pilot. Commercial Applications and Other Benefits. Summarize the future applications or public benefits if the project is carried over into Phase II or Phase III and beyond. The CHEERS+HES commercialized product will be ready for national market scale following a successful Phase 1 performance. The CHEERS+HES adoption is estimated to reach a 5% adoption growth rate versus the 110,000 baseline, starting in Year 1 after Phase I completion, and continuing each year. As a direct benefit to the DOE, CHEERS will set a goal of 100,000 Home Energy Score assessments for existing home alterations within the first 10 years following Phase 1 performance. The technical benefits of this proposed project include the harmonized, automated, and seamless integration of the DOE HES into the widely used and market leading California energy registry, CHEERS. The social benefits include the aggregate energy, cost and GHG savings by allowing the broader public streamlined access to the CHEERS+HES measurement and the energy efficiency recommended measures that may result. Key Words: Home Energy ScoreTM (HES); Application Programming Interface (API); Home Energy Rating Services (HERS); HERS Raters; contractors; assessors; existing homes, energy asset data; cost, energy, and emissions saving measures; energy code (Title 24) compliance; document repository; utilities; pilot; newly developed software; energy efficiency; homeowner. Summary for Members of Congress: The DOE Home Energy Score™ (HES) is a tool to encourage homeowners to improve their energy performance, lower costs and share energy information but is underutilized and consists of barriers which need to be addressed in order to scale. In effort to expand the HES, CHEERS, Inc. will integrate the HES to its State of California, approved home energy rating services (HERS) platform (CHEERS) to develop a single tool for contractors nationwide to assess, record and install recommended cost, energy, and emissions saving measures to the 140 million single-family homes throughout the U.S. and 14 million homes in California.

Application Programming Interface (API)↗

Toward Trustworthy Autonomous Science: A Two-Year Community Roadmap

One year ago, the AISLE roadmap argued that autonomous laboratories operated as isolated islands and proposed a grassroots network organized around five critical dimensions. The field has since moved faster than that roadmap anticipated: multi-agent systems have produced experimentally validated hypotheses, self-driving laboratories have grown more interoperable and orchestrated, reasoning-trained and domain foundation models have raised the capability ceiling, and the Genesis Mission has placed autonomous experimentation at the center of U.S. federal science strategy, with industry emerging as a primary actor. Progress has met a sobering counter-current, including a corrected flagship discovery result, benchmarks showing that agents which rival experts on closed-ended questions still complete only a fraction of open-ended research, and fabricated citations surfacing at leading venues. We read this as the defining tension of the field: producing a candidate discovery is no longer the hard part, but verifying it is, and this asymmetry now limits autonomous science more than raw model capability. Accordingly, we update the roadmap around seven dimensions, revisiting the original five and elevating two former cross-cutting concerns, trust, verification, and reproducibility, and safety, security, and governance, to first-class status. We assess the original milestones (M1 through M14) as achieved, partially achieved, reframed, or open, add four new milestones (M15 through M18) for the elevated dimensions, and scope the path forward to a two-year horizon, with the first year concentrating on interfaces, protocol adoption, and the scaffolding of verification, and the second targeting federation, zero-trust coordination, and governance. Throughout, we position the grassroots network as the interoperability fabric that lets national programs, international initiatives, and commercial platforms connect rather than re-silo.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Spot: A Programming Language for Verified Flight Software

The C programming language is widely used for programming space flight software and other safety-critical real time systems. C, however, is far from ideal for this purpose: as is well known, it is both low-level and unsafe. This paper describes Spot, a language derived from C for programming space flight systems. Spot aims to maintain compatibility with existing C code while improving the language and supporting verification with the SPIN model checker. The major features of Spot include actor-based concurrency, distributed state with message passing and transactional updates, and annotations for testing and verification. Spot also supports domain-specific annotations for managing spacecraft state, e.g., communicating telemetry information to the ground. We describe the motivation and design rationale for Spot, give an overview of the design, provide examples of Spot's capabilities, and discuss the current status of the implementation.

validation↗

Near-Term Policy Considerations for Lunar Missions

Near-Term Policy Considerations for Lunar Missions. Therese Jones1, Gabriel Swiney,1 and Katie McBrayer,2 1NASA HQ, 300 Hidden Figures Way SW, Washington, D.C. 20546, 2NASA Langley Re-search Center, 1 NASA Drive, Hampton, VA, 23666. (Contact: therese.m.jones@nasa.gov) Introduction: More than two dozen lunar missions are planned prior to the Artemis III crewed lunar landing, from Russian, Chinese, Indian, Japanese and U.S. government orbiters and landers to Commercial Lunar Payload Ser-vices missions to commercial crewed flybys. While the Artemis Accords have established an international consortium of countries seeking to mitigate interference between operations on the Moon, a number of unaddressed policy issues remain that may be critical to lunar operations. In this lightning talk, we build upon NASA’s Of-fice of Technology, Policy, and Strategy’s Sep-tember 2022 Report “Lunar Landing and Oper-ations Policy Analysis” [1], to give an overview of policy questions that remain open, including: whether to prioritize certain landing locations or avoid certain scientifically valuable locations, design and coordination of safety zones, notifi-cation of other actors of potential dangers posed by landing, whether to avoid placing equipment in operationally valuable locations, and end-of-life disposal. We will also discuss how these policy implications could apply to planned missions.. References: [1] Swiney, G., and Hernandez, A. Lunar Landing and Operations Policy Analy-sis, NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy, September 30, 2022 https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nasa-otps-lunar-landing-and-operations-policy-analysis-final-report_2.pdf

Therese Jones↗

Automated Generation of Graph-based Cyber Threat Intel

With the advancement of AI technology and tools, specifically in the cybersecurity domain, both cyber defenders and threat actors are continuously adapting the use of these capabilities to expedite their operations. With this phenomenon, threat intelligence that is up to date, refreshable, and has relevant context to a specific threat becomes more and more important as it enables cybersecurity professionals to gain insight into relevant data and relationships to guide their operations. This project enables users to frequently aggregate threat intelligence from various sources, such as vendor vulnerability advisories affecting critical infrastructure, malware reports, and adversary writeups into a centralized, standardized database. The project utilizes the Structured Threat Intelligence eXpression (STIX) for a standardized, shareable threat intelligence data format and Neo4j as a graph database solution to store STIX nodes and relationships. Initial results of the project include datasets of over 8,000 nodes and 20,000 relationships extracted from over 500 data sources that have been released within the past month.

Threat Intelligence↗

Development and Implementation of A Small Satellite Systems Engineering Webinar Series: A Collaboration Between the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration

The United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) in collaboration with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) established a webinar series on NASA systems engineering standards and practices for the purpose of sharing knowledge in this area. UNOOSA’s “Access to Space for All” initiative provides capacity-building opportunities in space science, technology, and space applications for United Nations member states. Due to the cooperation among established space actors, the United Nations, and emerging space entities, the initiative enables students from developing countries from all over the world to carry out projects using technologies and space applications. Through NASA’s Small Spacecraft Systems Virtual Institute (S3VI), the four-part webinar series was designed to cover basic systems engineering and project management skills that are fundamental to planning, developing, and implementing an experiment or a space project and that serve as critical knowledge for those engaged in space activities, whether as a designer, builder, or manager of space infrastructure and services. The first series of webinars was convened over the course of November 2023 through February 2024.

Systems Engineering↗

Proactive Regulatory Approaches to Electrification and Load Growth: Workshop Report

On July 10 and 11, 2024, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and RMI led a workshop in Aurora, Colorado, to explore novel and proactive approaches to electrification and load growth while minimizing risks and costs to customers. Over the next decade, a unique opportunity exists to invest strategically in the electricity system to enable electrification across the transportation, industrial, and building sectors and respond to data and technology-based load growth. However, current utility and regulatory planning practices are insufficient to identify and enable the right investments, and work must be done to reduce the risk and decisional uncertainty faced by utility regulatory commissions and utilities. Ensuring timely electrification investments may require new approaches to address risk, uncertainty, prudence, and cost recovery. Understanding the decision-making process and information needs of utilities and regulators is critical. New policies (or application of policies), financial tools, systems analysis, regulatory mechanisms, and enhanced process transparency may be required. The workshop's goal was to identify proactive regulatory approaches for electrification and load growth that minimize costs and risks to customers. Our intention was that the conversations and the resulting solutions and takeaways would be specific and tactical rather than general and theoretical and that together we would create actionable next steps for key actors in the system, including utilities, regulators, thought leaders, researchers, and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This report is intended to provide workshop attendees with a record and summary of the discussion and proposals raised at the workshop and to provide interested entities who did not attend, such as other regulators, policymakers, utilities, and U.S. DOE offices, with an understanding of what was discussed and with ideas to explore in their organizations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Vulnerabilities in Satellite Communications Underscore Threat to Critical Infrastructure

INL analysts assess critical infrastructure sectors leveraging satellite communications (SATCOM) are likely inadvertently increasing the attack surface caused by inherent vulnerabilities in equipment and communications pathways. A lack of ownership regarding security in SATCOM ecosystems creates pervasive information security risk, and the obfuscation of patching responsibility means the mitigation of publicly and privately disclosed vulnerabilities is difficult to track. With these factors in consideration, INL analysts assess the number of attacks against SATCOM is likely to increase in the next decade as threat actors exploit these vulnerabilities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Remote ID for Rapid Assessment of Flight and Vehicle Information

The ability to rapidly identify UAS (Unmanned Aircraft Systems) in the field has emerged as a critical need for the integration of small UASs into the national airspace and counter-UAS operations. This paper proposes an architecture for rapid retrieval of UAS information leveraging NASA's current Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) system. The proposed architecture utilizes UTM components: FIMS (Flight Information Management System), USS (UAS Service Supplier), and vehicle registration and model database in order to provide assessment of the UAS reported in the field including the ability to distinguish between participating and non- participating UTM actors. Detailed system descriptions are provided and preliminary results from field tests conducted during UTM TCL (Technical Capability Level) 3 are discussed. It is found that 94 percent of the remote ID look-ups were successful. The average time of a look-up is found to be 1.2 seconds. Failure cases are examined and recommendations on next steps to advance UAS remote identification are provided.

USS (UAS Service Supplier)↗

Remote ID for Rapid Assessment of Flight and Vehicle Information

The ability to rapidly identify UAS in the field has emerged as a critical need for the integration of small UASs into the national airspace and counter-uas operations. This paper proposes an architecture for rapid retrieval of UAS information leveraging NASA's current Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) system. The proposed architecture utilizes UTM components: FIMS (Flight Information Management System), USS (UAS Service Supplier), and vehicle registration and model database in order to provide assessment of the UAS reported in the field including the ability to distinguish between participating and non- participating UTM actors. Detailed system descriptions are provided and preliminary results from field tests conducted during UTM TCL (Technical Capability Level) 3 are discussed. It is found that 94% of the remote ID look-ups were successful. The average time of a look-up is found to be 1.2 seconds. Failure cases are examined and recommendations on next steps to advance UAS remote identification are provided.

Ishihara, Abraham K.↗

A coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change

Limited water availability, population growth, and climate change have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries. Jordan’s situation is emblematic, compounded by conflict-induced population shocks. Integrating knowledge across hydrology, climatology, agriculture, political science, geography, and economics, we present the Jordan Water Model, a nationwide coupled human–natural-engineered systems model that is used to evaluate Jordan’s freshwater security under climate and socioeconomic changes. The complex systems model simulates the trajectory of Jordan’s water system, representing dynamic interactions between a hierarchy of actors and the natural and engineered water environment. A multiagent modeling approach enables the quantification of impacts at the level of thousands of representative agents across sectors, allowing for the evaluation of both systemwide and distributional outcomes translated into a suite of water-security metrics (vulnerability, equity, shortage duration, and economic well-being). Model results indicate severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in freshwater security. Per capita water availability decreases by approximately 50% by the end of the century. Without intervening measures, >90% of the low-income household population experiences critical insecurity by the end of the century, receiving <40 L per capita per day. Widening disparity in freshwater use, lengthening shortage durations, and declining economic welfare are prevalent across narratives. To gain a foothold on its freshwater future, Jordan must enact a sweeping portfolio of ambitious interventions that include large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water sector reform, with model results revealing exponential improvements in water security through the coordination of supply- and demand-side measures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Leverage demand-side policies for energy security

Energy security is a top priority for governments, companies, and households because energy systems and the critical functions that they support are threatened by disruptions from wars, pandemics, climate change, and other shocks (1). More often than not, governments rely on policies focused on energy supply to enhance energy security while generally ignoring demand-side possibilities. Further, the indicators traditionally used to measure energy security are also tilted toward the supply side; this fails to capture the full spectrum of vulnerability to energy crises. Energy security assessments need to reflect the wider benefits of security related interventions more accurately. To that end, we develop a systematic approach to measuring the energy security impacts of policy interventions that explicitly considers energy demand (buildings, transport, and industry). Here, we determine that demand-side actions outperform conventional supply-side approaches at making countries more resilient. Energy demand links more directly than supply to the satisfaction of critical social functions and human well-being that are at the core of energy security. Yet, demand-side perspectives tend to be neglected or underrepresented in analysis and policy debates on energy security. Factors that contribute to this supply-side bias include the traditional sectoral organization of industries and policy institutions along fuels (coal, oil, and gas) and energy forms (electric utilities) as well as the decentralized and multivaried activities characteristic of energy demand (from vehicles to household appliances to manufacturing and more), which leads to a multitude of actors and institutional fragmentation. The basic fundamentals of energy systems and markets, where demand and supply are intricately linked, have also not yet risen from vague awareness to a central organizing principle among policy-makers for structuring the energy security discourse.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Report of the Panel on Materials

Materials and manufacturing technology are critical to advanced aircraft and permeate all disciplines. Current aircraft systems employ a variety of materials, each selected to provide the best vehicle design in terms of performance, safety, reliability, manufacturability, and life cycle cost. However, a mistake in materials selection could bankrupt an airframe or engine manufacturer. Thus, the introduction of new materials is a slow process. Generally, new materials are used initially in noncritical components until their performance in service can be confirmed. Then, as confidence grows, they are used in more and more critical applications. Finally, if appropriate, new materials are used in critical, static elements and then in dynamic components. Thus, because the nominal time for development of a conventional monolithic material ranges from 5 to 10 years there is a 10- to 15- year lag between laboratory effort and introduction into service. Therefore, to assure the availability of materials suitable for production aircraft and engines in the year 2000, the concepts already must have been identified and must be progressing along evolutionary paths toward application. Trends, actual and projected, in the use of materials for commercial engines are shown in Figure 4-1. Related military applications are projected to follow similar paths. The new actor will be composites. The panel examined a wide range of materials important to all aspects of aircraft development, airframe structures, propulsion systems and for other important aircraft subsystems. These are addressed in the body of the report in terms of the current state of the art, opportunities for improvement, and barriers to achievement of projected benefits. This is followed by projections of the progress of technology that could be realized by the year 2000 with the application of appropriate resources.

Diefendorf, Russell J.↗