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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2019

Earned Value Management (EVM) System Description

The purpose of this Earned Value Management (EVM) System Description is to provide guidance in NASA’s Earned Value Management Capability for the effective application, implementation, and utilization of EVM on NASA programs, projects, major contracts and subcontracts. EVM is a project management process that effectively integrates a project’s scope of work with schedule and cost elements for optimum project planning and control. The goal is to achieve timely and accurate quantification of progress that will facilitate management by exception and enable early visibility into the nature and the magnitude of technical problems as well as the intended course and success of corrective actions. This system description contains detailed information on implementation of EVM processes, procedures, roles and responsibilities.

Schumann, Deborah C.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Uncertainty in Electric Propulsion Erosion Measurements

Uncertainty in erosion rates as measured by different methods is discussed and quantified. The work focuses on case studies from components on the Hall Effect Rocket with Magnetic Shielding (HERMeS) Hall thruster, but the methods can be extended for many electric propulsion applications. The primary method used for evaluating erosion is non-contact profilometry of masked and exposed components. Accurate quantification of the erosion rates of components is critical to determining lifetime and is therefore critical to mission planning purposes.

Jonathan A Mackey↗

NASA NTRS2021

Saharan dust effects on North Atlantic sea surface skin Temperatures

Saharan dust outbreaks frequently propagate westward over the Atlantic Ocean; accurate quantification of the dust aerosol scattering and absorption effect on the surface radiative fluxes (SRF) is fundamental to understanding critical climate feedbacks. By exploiting large sets of measurements from many ship campaigns in conjunction with reanalysis products, this study characterizes the sensitivity of the SRF and skin Sea‐Surface Temperature (SSTskin) to the Saharan dust aerosols using models of the atmospheric radiative transfer and thermal skin effect. Saharan dust outbreaks can decrease the surface shortwave radiation up to 190 W/sq.m, and an analysis of the corresponding SST(skin) changes using a thermal skin model suggests dust‐induced cooling effects as large as −0.24 K during daytime and a warming effect of up of 0.06 K during daytime and nighttime respectively. Greater physical insight into the radiative transfer through an aerosol‐burdened atmosphere will substantially improve the predictive capabilities of weather and climate studies on a regional basis.

Saharan Dust↗

NASA NTRS2021

Earned Value Management (EVM) System Description

Christopher Lewis Sadler↗

NASA NTRS2021

Earned Value Management (EVM) Implementation Handbook

The purpose of this handbook is to provide EVM guidance for the effective application, implementation, and utilization of EVM on NASA programs, projects, major contracts, and subcontracts in a consolidated reference document. EVM is a project management process that effectively integrates a project’s scope of work with schedule and cost elements for optimum project planning and control. The goal is to achieve timely and accurate quantification of progress that will facilitate management by exception and enable early visibility into the nature and the magnitude of technical, cost and schedule problems as well as the intended course and success of corrective actions.

Christopher Lewis Sadler↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Automatic Boundary-Layer Adaptation of Structured Grids in VULCAN-CFD

In supersonic and hypersonic flow computations, well-resolved boundary layers are essential for accurate quantification of surface heating and transition prediction, particularly via linear stability analysis. Grid design for hypersonic flows with shocks, boundary-layer separation, and/or complex mean flow features incorporating spanwise/azimuthal inhomogeneities is a difficult issue. In comparison to a manual grid adaptation procedure, an autonomous grid adaptation technique offers significant improvements in computing time and solution quality. The VULCAN-CFD solver already includes a validated procedure for automatic adaption of structured grids to the bow shock. The present focus is on implementing an automatic boundary-layer adaptation capability in VULCAN-CFD that adapts structured, multiblock grids to both the bow shock and the boundary layer at the same time. The boundary-layer adaptation algorithm allows the user to specify the number of cells within the boundary layer, along with the input parameters used for detecting the edge of the boundary layer, namely, the variable used in the edge detection criterion,the edge detection method, the detection direction, and the relaxation factor used during the morphing of the grid. The algorithm automatically distributes grid points along the wall-normal direction to achieve a smooth variation in grid spacing from the edge of the boundary layer to a"junction" location within the outer part of the grid. Illustrative results are presented for three different high-speed configurations: the two-dimensional flow over a cylinder at Mach 17.6 and unit Reynolds number of Re=0.38x10^6 m^-1, the axisymmetric flow over a cone-cylinder-flare model at Mach 6.0 and Re = 10.5×10^6 m^-1, and the three-dimensional flow over a blunt, 7-degree half-angle cone at 5-degree angle of attack in a Mach 9.79 flow with Re = 17.1×10^6 m^-1. The automated boundary-layer adaptation is shown to provide an adequate grid topology that is aligned with the bow shock in the outer part of the grid and also resolves the viscous boundary-layer region close to the surface.

boundary layer transition↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of GHGSat Methane Emission Estimations of South Side Landfill in Indianapolis, Indiana

As global methane (CH4) continues to grow, accurate quantification of CH4 emission sources has become a high priority for climate management. Urban CH4 emissions in the US could potentially account close to 20% of the national CH4 anthropogenic emissions. While isolated insitu urban CH4 emissions quantification projects have been successful, they require sophisticated planning and prolonged analyses. Such studies are imperative, but they cannot easily operate in every city. An ability to quantify the magnitude of CH4 point sources in a variety of cities with a satellite could support wide scale urban CH4 emissions quantification. Whole-earth scanning satellite instruments such as the TROPOMI and GOSAT are too coarse and noisy to provide meaningful measurements over cities with mid-strength emissions and most point-source emissions in general. It may be possible to address this deficiency utilizing a product with the high spatial resolution of 30-50 m from a private company GHGSat Inc. These sensors are specifically designed to identify and quantify CH4 emissions from diverse types of point sources of varying intensities. In this work we analyze a year (05/2023-05/2024) of GHGSat scans over South Side Landfill in downtown Indianapolis, Indiana and assess the instruments’ accuracy and precision with respect to prior estimations. The results indicate that the data are helpful for estimating landfill’s emissions (~750 kg/hr ± 200 kg/hr) over months-to-a-year time frame but may not be appropriate for identifying daily or even seasonal variations with any trustable degree of certainty, at least not in an urban environment.

Nikolay Balashov↗

DOE OSTI2026

Near-Real-Time Material Tracking: Combining Vis–NIR Spectroscopy with Flow Sensing for Accurate Nd(III) Quantification

A fiber-optic visible–near-infrared (vis–NIR) absorption spectroscopy and flow sensor system has been developed for near-real-time tracking of Nd mass in the effluent stream from a column in a fume hood. The approach leverages two unique data streams and a partial least-squares regression (PLSR) model trained on vis–NIR absorption spectra of Nd(III) (0–1.5 M) in 1 M HNO 3 . In-line volumetric flow rate and vis–NIR spectra are measured in sequence after a chromatography column. The time stamps from each data stream are then synchronized, which allows integrated volumes to be combined with Nd(III) molarities predicted by a PLSR model to accurately calculate the Nd mass flowing through the column. This integrated measurement provides instantaneous mass flow and accumulates these data over time to obtain the total mass processed. The methodology developed in this study contributes critical technical infrastructure to improve monitoring capabilities to support chemical separations and the production of strategic materials and isotopes.

Irvine, Sawyer B. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enabling phase quantification of anhydrous cements via Raman imaging

The phase composition of Portland cements is typically determined using conventional techniques like X-ray Diffraction (XRD) Rietveld analysis, optical microscopy point counting, and electron microscopy. However, these techniques have several limitations that may affect their accuracy in certain sample-specific scenarios. Here, we report a highly accurate phase quantification of 11 different types of commercial, anhydrous cements using a new and complementary technique: Raman imaging. Specifically, for the 4 principal phases, composition from our extensive data (250,000 Raman spectra per sample, error < 0.71%) and those obtained from XRD Rietveld and supplier data have high coefficients of determination (R{sup 2} > 0.98, mean deviation <2%). Additionally, we also quantify 8 secondary phases present in cement clinkers (gypsum, anhydrite, bassanite, syngenite, dolomite, calcite, quartz, and portlandite) with a high degree of confidence, thereby demonstrating that Raman imaging is a highly versatile tool for anhydrous phase quantification in a broad variety of cements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Long-read sequencing transcriptome quantification with lr-kallisto

RNA abundance quantification has become routine and affordable thanks to high-throughput “short-read” technologies that provide accurate molecule counts at the gene level. Similarly accurate and affordable quantification of definitive full-length, transcript isoforms has remained a stubborn challenge, despite its obvious biological significance across a wide range of problems. “Long-read” sequencing platforms now produce data-types that can, in principle, drive routine definitive isoform quantification. However some particulars of contemporary long-read datatypes, together with isoform complexity and genetic variation, present bioinformatic challenges. We show here, using ONT data, that fast and accurate quantification of long-read data is possible and that it is improved by exome capture. To perform quantifications we developed lr-kallisto, which adapts the kallisto bulk and single-cell RNA-seq quantification methods for long-read technologies.

Loving, Rebekah K. (ORCID:0000000187250376)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Eigenvector continuation as an efficient and accurate emulator for uncertainty quantification

Not Available

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Knowledge-guided machine learning can improve carbon cycle quantification in agroecosystems

Abstract Accurate and cost-effective quantification of the carbon cycle for agroecosystems at decision-relevant scales is critical to mitigating climate change and ensuring sustainable food production. However, conventional process-based or data-driven modeling approaches alone have large prediction uncertainties due to the complex biogeochemical processes to model and the lack of observations to constrain many key state and flux variables. Here we propose a Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning (KGML) framework that addresses the above challenges by integrating knowledge embedded in a process-based model, high-resolution remote sensing observations, and machine learning (ML) techniques. Using the U.S. Corn Belt as a testbed, we demonstrate that KGML can outperform conventional process-based and black-box ML models in quantifying carbon cycle dynamics. Our high-resolution approach quantitatively reveals 86% more spatial detail of soil organic carbon changes than conventional coarse-resolution approaches. Moreover, we outline a protocol for improving KGML via various paths, which can be generalized to develop hybrid models to better predict complex earth system dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Optimized Deep Ensemble for Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Neural Networks: a System Safety Case Study on Sodium Fast Reactor Thermal Stratification Modeling

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are increasingly important to scientific computing and engineering system simulations. Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) for DNNs is critical in safety-sensitive engineering domains. Traditional Deep Ensemble (DE) methods, while easy to implement, frequently suffer from poorly calibrated uncertainty estimates and limited predictive accuracy due to reliance on fixed architectures with varied weight initializations. To address these issues, we introduce a workflow that combines Bayesian Optimization (BO) and DE. The workflow is modular, scalable, and integrates parallel BO initialized with Sobol sequences to individually optimize the hyperparameters of each ensemble member. This method enhances ensemble diversity, improves predictive accuracy, and provides reliable uncertainty estimates. We evaluate the proposed BODE approach in a sodium fast reactor thermal stratification modeling case study, where we used a densely connected convolutional neural network to predict turbulent viscosity during the reactor transient with consideration of data noise. We benchmark its performance against several optimization approaches, including baseline deep ensemble, evolutionary algorithm-optimized ensemble, ensemble formed via random search combined with greedy selection, and a BO ensemble using random initialization. Here, our results demonstrate superior performance of the developed BODE approach. In noise-free scenarios, BODE notably reduces incorrect aleatoric uncertainty and significantly enhances predictive accuracy. Under conditions of 5% and 10% Gaussian noise, BODE adaptively quantifies uncertainty proportional to data noise, achieving up to an 80% reduction in root mean square error compared to baseline methods and producing well-calibrated prediction intervals.

Bayesian optimization↗

NASA NTRS2016

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Afterbody Radiative Heating Predictions for Earth Entry

The objective of this work was to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification for afterbody radiative heating predictions of Stardust capsule during Earth entry at peak afterbody radiation conditions. The radiation environment in the afterbody region poses significant challenges for accurate uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis due to the complexity of the flow physics, computational cost, and large number of un-certain variables. In this study, first a sparse collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos approach along with global non-linear sensitivity analysis was used to identify the most significant uncertain variables and reduce the dimensions of the stochastic problem. Then, a total order stochastic expansion was constructed over only the important parameters for an efficient and accurate estimate of the uncertainty in radiation. Based on previous work, 388 uncertain parameters were considered in the radiation model, which came from the thermodynamics, flow field chemistry, and radiation modeling. The sensitivity analysis showed that only four of these variables contributed significantly to afterbody radiation uncertainty, accounting for almost 95% of the uncertainty. These included the electronic- impact excitation rate for N between level 2 and level 5 and rates of three chemical reactions in uencing N, N(+), O, and O(+) number densities in the flow field.

West, Thomas K., IV↗

DOE OSTI2021

TMTPro Complementary Ion Quantification Increase Plexing and Sensitivity for Accurate Multiplexed Proteomics at the MS2 level

The ability of the TMTPro isobaric labeling reagents to form complementary ions for accurate multiplexed proteomics at the MS2 level was investigated. Human and yeast peptides were labeled in distinct ratios to analyze the effect of interference on the quantification accuracy. A method, TMTProC, was developed and optimized for accurate, sensitive MS2-level quantification of up to 8 conditions in one MS-run.

Stadlmeier, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Sensitivity of Variational Bayesian Neural Network Performance to Hyperparameters

In scientific applications, predictive modeling is often of limited use without accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) to indicate when a model may be extrapolating or when more data needs to be collected. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) produce predictive uncertainty by propagating uncertainty in neural network (NN) weights and offer the promise of obtaining not only an accurate predictive model but also accurate UQ. However, in practice, obtaining accurate UQ with BNNs is difficult due in part to the approximations used for model training (such as those made in variational inference) and in part to the need to choose a suitable set of hyperparameters; these hyperparameters outnumber those needed for traditional NNs and often have opaque effects on the results. We aim to shed light on the effects of hyperparameter choices for variational BNNs by performing a global sensitivity analysis of variational BNN performance under varying hyperparameter settings. Our results indicate that many of the hyperparameters interact with each other to affect both predictive accuracy and UQ. For improved usage of variational BNNs in real-world applications, we suggest that thorough hyperparameter tuning, including tuning of prior hyperparameters and loss function parameters, is essential for accurate UQ in variational BNNs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

A general framework for quantifying uncertainty at scale

Abstract In many fields of science, comprehensive and realistic computational models are available nowadays. Often, the respective numerical calculations call for the use of powerful supercomputers, and therefore only a limited number of cases can be investigated explicitly. This prevents straightforward approaches to important tasks like uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. This challenge can be overcome via our recently developed sensitivity-driven dimension-adaptive sparse grid interpolation strategy. The method exploits, via adaptivity, the structure of the underlying model (such as lower intrinsic dimensionality and anisotropic coupling of the uncertain inputs) to enable efficient and accurate uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis at scale. Here, we demonstrate the efficiency of this adaptive approach in the context of fusion research, in a realistic, computationally expensive scenario of turbulent transport in a magnetic confinement tokamak device with eight uncertain parameters, reducing the effort by at least two orders of magnitude. In addition, we show that this refinement method intrinsically provides an accurate surrogate model that is nine orders of magnitude cheaper than the high-fidelity model.

Farcaş, Ionuţ-Gabriel (ORCID:0000000238841580)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian projection pursuit regression

In projection pursuit regression (PPR), a univariate response variable is approximated by the sum of $M$ “ridge functions,” which are flexible functions of one-dimensional projections of a multivariate input variable. Traditionally, optimization routines are used to choose the projection directions and ridge functions via a sequential algorithm, and $M$ is typically chosen via cross-validation. Here, we introduce a novel Bayesian version of PPR, which has the benefit of accurate uncertainty quantification. To infer appropriate projection directions and ridge functions, we apply novel adaptations of methods used for the single ridge function case ($M$=1), called the Bayesian Single Index Model; and use a Reversible Jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to infer the number of ridge functions $M$. We evaluate the predictive ability of our model in 20 simulated scenarios and for 23 real datasets, in a bake-off against an array of state-of-the-art regression methods. Finally, we generalize this methodology and demonstrate the ability to accurately model multivariate response variables. Its effective performance indicates that Bayesian Projection Pursuit Regression is a valuable addition to the existing regression toolbox.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗