SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Weibull Distribution”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2005

Lifetime Reliability Prediction of Ceramic Structures Under Transient Thermomechanical Loads

An analytical methodology is developed to predict the probability of survival (reliability) of ceramic components subjected to harsh thermomechanical loads that can vary with time (transient reliability analysis). This capability enables more accurate prediction of ceramic component integrity against fracture in situations such as turbine startup and shutdown, operational vibrations, atmospheric reentry, or other rapid heating or cooling situations (thermal shock). The transient reliability analysis methodology developed herein incorporates the following features: fast-fracture transient analysis (reliability analysis without slow crack growth, SCG); transient analysis with SCG (reliability analysis with time-dependent damage due to SCG); a computationally efficient algorithm to compute the reliability for components subjected to repeated transient loading (block loading); cyclic fatigue modeling using a combined SCG and Walker fatigue law; proof testing for transient loads; and Weibull and fatigue parameters that are allowed to vary with temperature or time. Component-to-component variation in strength (stochastic strength response) is accounted for with the Weibull distribution, and either the principle of independent action or the Batdorf theory is used to predict the effect of multiaxial stresses on reliability. The reliability analysis can be performed either as a function of the component surface (for surface-distributed flaws) or component volume (for volume-distributed flaws). The transient reliability analysis capability has been added to the NASA CARES/ Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. CARES/Life was also updated to interface with commercially available finite element analysis software, such as ANSYS, when used to model the effects of transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Influence of Roughness on Gear Surface Fatigue

Gear working surfaces are subjected to repeated rolling and sliding contacts, and often designs require loads sufficient to cause eventual fatigue of the surface. This research provides experimental data and analytical tools to further the understanding of the causal relationship of gear surface roughness to surface fatigue. The research included evaluations and developments of statistical tools for gear fatigue data, experimental evaluation of the surface fatigue lives of superfinished gears with a near-mirror quality, and evaluations of the experiments by analytical methods and surface inspections. Alternative statistical methods were evaluated using Monte Carlo studies leading to a final recommendation to describe gear fatigue data using a Weibull distribution, maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, and a presumed zero-valued location parameter. A new method was developed for comparing two datasets by extending the current methods of likelihood-ratio based statistics. The surface fatigue lives of superfinished gears were evaluated by carefully controlled experiments, and it is shown conclusively that superfinishing of gears can provide for significantly greater lives relative to ground gears. The measured life improvement was approximately a factor of five. To assist with application of this finding to products, the experimental condition was evaluated. The fatigue life results were expressed in terms of specific film thickness and shown to be consistent with bearing data. Elastohydrodynamic and stress analyses were completed to relate the stress condition to fatigue. Smooth-surface models do not adequately explain the improved fatigue lives. Based on analyses using a rough surface model, it is concluded that the improved fatigue lives of superfinished gears is due to a reduced rate of near-surface micropitting fatigue processes, not due to any reduced rate of spalling (sub-surface) fatigue processes. To complete the evaluations, surface inspection were completed. The surface topographies of the ground gears changed substantially due to running, but the topographies of the superfinished gears were essentially unchanged with running.

Krantz, Timothy↗

NASA NTRS2006

The Projection of Space Radiation Environments with a Solar Cycle Statistical Model

A solar cycle statistical model has been developed to project sunspot numbers which represent the variations in the space radiation environment. The resultant projection of sunspot numbers in near future were coupled to space-related quantities of interest in radiation protection, such as the galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) deceleration potential (f) and the mean occurrence frequency of solar particle event (SPE). Future GCR fluxes have been derived from a predictive model, in which GCR temporal dependence represented by f was derived from GCR flux and ground-based Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last four decades. Results showed that the point dose equivalent inside a typical spacecraft in interplanetary radiation fields was influenced by solar modulation up to a factor of three. One important characteristic of sporadic SPEs is their mean frequency of occurrence, which is dependent on solar activity. Projections of future mean frequency of SPE occurrence were estimated from a power law function of sunspot number. Furthermore, the cumulative probabilities of SPE during short-period missions were defined with the continuous database of proton fluences of SPE. The analytic representation of energy spectra of SPE was constructed by the Weibull distribution for different event sizes. The representative exposure level at each event size was estimated for the guideline of protection systems for astronauts during future space exploration missions.

Kim, Myung-Hee↗

NASA NTRS2008

Evaluation of Silicon Nitride for Brayton Turbine Wheel Application

Silicon nitride (Si3N4) is being evaluated as a risk-reduction alternative for a Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter Brayton turbine wheel in the event that the Prometheus program design requirements exceed the creep strength of the baseline metallic superalloys. Five Si3N4 ceramics, each processed by a different method, were screened based on the Weibull distribution of bend strength at 1700 F (927 C). Three of the Si3N4 ceramics, Honeywell AS800, Kyocera SN282, and Saint-Gobain NT154, had bend strengths in excess of 87 ksi (600 MPa) at 1700 F (927 C). These were chosen for further assessment and consideration for future subcomponent and component fabrication and testing.

Freedman, Marc R.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061.

Vlcek, Brian L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

Vlcek, Brian L.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Pharmaceuticals Exposed to the Space Environment: Problems and Prospects

The NASA Human Research Program (HRP) Health Countermeasures Element maintains ongoing efforts to inform detailed risks, gaps, and further questions associated with the use of pharmaceuticals in space. Most recently, the Pharmacology Risk Report, released in 2010, illustrates the problems associated with maintaining pharmaceutical efficacy. Since the report, one key publication includes evaluation of pharmaceutical products stored on the International Space Station (ISS). This study shows that selected pharmaceuticals on ISS have a shorter shelf-life in space than corresponding terrestrial controls. The HRP Human Research Roadmap for planetary exploration identifies the risk of ineffective or toxic medications due to long-term storage during missions to Mars. The roadmap also identifies the need to understand and predict how pharmaceuticals will behave when exposed to radiation for long durations. Terrestrial studies of returned samples offer a start for predictive modeling. This paper shows that pharmaceuticals returned to Earth for post-flight analyses are amenable to a Weibull distribution analysis in order to support probabilistic risk assessment modeling. The paper also considers the prospect of passive payloads of key pharmaceuticals on sample return missions outside of Earth's magnetic field to gather additional statistics. Ongoing work in radiation chemistry suggests possible mitigation strategies where future work could be done at cryogenic temperatures to explore methods for preserving the strength of pharmaceuticals in the space radiation environment, perhaps one day leading to an architecture where pharmaceuticals are cached on the Martian surface and preserved cryogenically.

pharmacology↗

NASA NTRS2017

Environmental Barrier Coating Fracture, Fatigue and High-Heat-Flux Durability Modeling and Stochastic Progressive Damage Simulation

Advanced environmental barrier coatings will play an increasingly important role in future gas turbine engines because of their ability to protect emerging light-weight SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composite (CMC) engine components, further raising engine operating temperatures and performance. Because the environmental barrier coating systems are critical to the performance, reliability and durability of these hot-section ceramic engine components, a prime-reliant coating system along with established life design methodology are required for the hot-section ceramic component insertion into engine service. In this paper, we have first summarized some observations of high temperature, high-heat-flux environmental degradation and failure mechanisms of environmental barrier coating systems in laboratory simulated engine environment tests. In particular, the coating surface cracking morphologies and associated subsequent delamination mechanisms under the engine level high-heat-flux, combustion steam, and mechanical creep and fatigue loading conditions will be discussed. The EBC compostion and archtechture improvements based on advanced high heat flux environmental testing, and the modeling advances based on the integrated Finite Element Analysis Micromechanics Analysis Code/Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (FEAMAC/CARES) program will also be highlighted. The stochastic progressive damage simulation successfully predicts mud flat damage pattern in EBCs on coated 3-D specimens, and a 2-D model of through-the-thickness cross-section. A 2-parameter Weibull distribution was assumed in characterizing the coating layer stochastic strength response and the formation of damage was therefore modeled. The damage initiation and coalescence into progressively smaller mudflat crack cells was demonstrated. A coating life prediction framework may be realized by examining the surface crack initiation and delamination propagation in conjunction with environmental degradation under high-heat-flux and environment load test conditions.

Mechanical creep and fatigue loading condition↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lower neck injury criteria for THOR and Hybrid III dummies in rear impact

The objectives of the study are to derive lower-neck-injury probability curves under rear impact loading from matched pair Hybrid III and THOR dummy tests. Methods: Twelve whole-body and 15 isolated head-neck rear-impact sled tests were conducted using the 2 dummies. They were positioned on a rigid seat that was attached to an acceleration sled. The dummies were positioned with the head parallel to the ground, torso against the seat back, and legs stretched such that there was no axial rotation. The acceleration pulse matched the previous in-house human cadaver tests. The 6-axis lower-neck load cell was used in both dummies. For the isolated rear-impact tests,the head-neck was excised from the dummies, and the lower-neck load cell was mounted to the top of the sled with the head parallel to the ground and such that the acceleration vector was in the rear impact mode. Lower-neck loads and lower-neck-injury criteria (LNij) were obtained using the load cell data and survival analysis to develop injury-assessment-risk values and curves for both dummies. The LNij criteria were determined for both dummies using the intercept value corresponding to the 90% probability level for the forces and moments. Results: The log normal and Weibull distributions were the optimal distributions for the Hybrid III and THOR devices. At the 50% risk level, the mean LNij of 1.1 and NCIS was 0.77 for the Hybrid III, and 1.5 NCIS was 0.30 for the THOR device. The quality indices were in the fair range and good range for the 2 dummies, respectively, at this risk level. Conclusions: The lower-neck-based IARCs and IARVs serve as the first dataset for injury assessments, and the THOR may be a better test device for assessing injures in rear impact environments.

Narayan Yoganandan↗

NASA NTRS2022

Winds at the Mars 2020 Landing Site. 2. Wind Variability and Turbulence

Wind speeds measured by the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover in Jezero crater were fitted as a Weibull distribution. InSight wind data acquired in Elysium Planitia were also used to contextualize observations. Jezero winds were found to be much calmer on average than in previous landing sites, despite the intense aeolian activity observed. However, a great influence of turbulence and wave activity was observed in the wind speed variations, thus driving the probability of reaching the highest wind speeds at Jezero, instead of sustained winds driven by local, regional, or large-scale circulation. The power spectral density of wind speed fluctuations follows a power-law, whose slope deviates depending on the time of day from that predicted considering homogeneous and isotropic turbulence. Daytime wave activity is related to convection cells and smaller eddies in the boundary layer, advected over the crater. The signature of convection cells was also found during dust storm conditions, when prevailing winds were consistent with a tidal drive. Nighttime fluctuations were also intense, suggesting strong mechanical turbulence. Convective vortices were usually involved in rapid wind fluctuations and extreme winds, with variations peaking at 9.2 times the background winds. Transient high wind events by vortex-passages, turbulence, and wave activity could be driving aeolian activity at Jezero. We report the detection of a strong dust cloud of 0.75–1.5 km in length passing over the rover. The observed aeolian activity had major implications for instrumentation, with the wind sensor suffering damage throughout the mission, probably due to flying debris advected by winds.

D. Viúdez-moreiras↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Prediction of Relative Air Permeability of Porous Media With Weibull Pore Size Distribution

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Zhenlei Yang↗

NASA NTRS1991

Statistical structural analysis of rotor impact ice shedding

The statistical characteristics of impact ice shear strength are analyzed, with emphasis placed on the most probable shear strength and statistical distribution of an ice deposit. Several distribution types are considered: the Weibull, two-parameter Weibull, and exponential distributions, as well as the Gumbell distribution of the smallest extreme and the Gumbell distribution of the largest extreme. It is concluded that the Weibull distribution yields the best results; however, the expected life, shape parameter, and scale parameter should be determined separately for each case of varying wind speed and droplet size. The theoretical predictions of shear stresses in a specific rotating ice shape are compared, and it is noted that when the effects of lift are added to the theoretical model and the interference is calculated with a new mean and standard deviation, the probability of ice shed is computed as 36.64 pct.

Kellacky, C. J.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Flight inspection data and crack initiation times

Lockheed C-130 service-flight inspection data is reduced by means of fracture mechanics and statistical analysis into a form from which the probability of time to crack initiation and the distribution of initial flaw sizes for various locations on the aircraft can be determined. Crack sizes are normalized by extrapolating a growing crack backwards from its first recorded size to .03 inches (crack initiation size) yielding the time to crack initiation. In a similar fashion, the crack is grown backwards to a time equal to zero to yield an initial flaw size. In order to perform the discussed computations, crack growth constants were computed for each individual location and were analyzed statistically. Statistical distributions were fitted to times to crack initiation and to initial flaw sizes in order to describe their expected behavior. Weibull and Johnson distributions have been found to fit the data reasonably well but for a better fit convolution integrals of Poisson load distributions and Weibull strength distributions are needed.

Johnson, W. S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Bivariate extreme value distributions

In certain engineering applications, such as those occurring in the analyses of ascent structural loads for the Space Transportation System (STS), some of the load variables have a lower bound of zero. Thus, the need for practical models of bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions with lower limits was identified. We discuss the Gumbel models and present practical forms of bivariate extreme probability distributions of Weibull and Frechet types with two parameters. Bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions can be expressed in terms of the marginal extremel distributions and a 'dependence' function subject to certain analytical conditions. Properties of such bivariate extreme distributions, sums and differences of paired extremals, as well as the corresponding forms of conditional distributions, are discussed. Practical estimation techniques are also given.

Elshamy, M.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Statistical Distribution of Gear Surface Fatigue Lives at High Reliability

The reliability of gears is important for a wide variety of applications, and the gearing community has a desire for better prediction of fatigue life at very high reliability. To improve predictions, a set of 950 NASA-conducted gear surface fatigue test results were gathered, pooled together using the general standardized Weibull variate, and then fit to a Weibull three-parameter distribution. An iterative fitting method was developed and then applied to the gear fatigue data to determine the values of the distribution parameters. Additional analyses were done using bearing and gear data that demonstrate a trend of increasing minimum life coefficient as correlated to the timeframe of the fatigue testing, and material cleanliness is proposed as a primary explanation for such correlation. It is noted that this observed trend supports published findings from analytical modeling and experimental studies that improvements to material cleanliness improves minimum fatigue life. Further use and study of the three-parameter Weibull distribution is recommended as a tool to quantify fatigue life most accurately in the high reliability regime.

gear↗

NASA NTRS2012

Large-Scale Weibull Analysis of H-451 Nuclear- Grade Graphite Specimen Rupture Data

A Weibull analysis was performed of the strength distribution and size effects for 2000 specimens of H-451 nuclear-grade graphite. The data, generated elsewhere, measured the tensile and four-point-flexure room-temperature rupture strength of specimens excised from a single extruded graphite log. Strength variation was compared with specimen location, size, and orientation relative to the parent body. In our study, data were progressively and extensively pooled into larger data sets to discriminate overall trends from local variations and to investigate the strength distribution. The CARES/Life and WeibPar codes were used to investigate issues regarding the size effect, Weibull parameter consistency, and nonlinear stress-strain response. Overall, the Weibull distribution described the behavior of the pooled data very well. However, the issue regarding the smaller-than-expected size effect remained. This exercise illustrated that a conservative approach using a two-parameter Weibull distribution is best for designing graphite components with low probability of failure for the in-core structures in the proposed Generation IV (Gen IV) high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors. This exercise also demonstrated the continuing need to better understand the mechanisms driving stochastic strength response. Extensive appendixes are provided with this report to show all aspects of the rupture data and analytical results.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Reliability Model for Ni-BaTiO3-Based (BME) Ceramic Capacitors

The evaluation of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) with base-metal electrodes (BMEs) for potential NASA space project applications requires an in-depth understanding of their reliability. The reliability of an MLCC is defined as the ability of the dielectric material to retain its insulating properties under stated environmental and operational conditions for a specified period of time t. In this presentation, a general mathematic expression of a reliability model for a BME MLCC is developed and discussed. The reliability model consists of three parts: (1) a statistical distribution that describes the individual variation of properties in a test group of samples (Weibull, log normal, normal, etc.), (2) an acceleration function that describes how a capacitors reliability responds to external stresses such as applied voltage and temperature (All units in the test group should follow the same acceleration function if they share the same failure mode, independent of individual units), and (3) the effect and contribution of the structural and constructional characteristics of a multilayer capacitor device, such as the number of dielectric layers N, dielectric thickness d, average grain size r, and capacitor chip size S. In general, a two-parameter Weibull statistical distribution model is used in the description of a BME capacitors reliability as a function of time. The acceleration function that relates a capacitors reliability to external stresses is dependent on the failure mode. Two failure modes have been identified in BME MLCCs: catastrophic and slow degradation. A catastrophic failure is characterized by a time-accelerating increase in leakage current that is mainly due to existing processing defects (voids, cracks, delamination, etc.), or the extrinsic defects. A slow degradation failure is characterized by a near-linear increase in leakage current against the stress time; this is caused by the electromigration of oxygen vacancies (intrinsic defects). The two identified failure modes follow different acceleration functions. Catastrophic failures follow the traditional power-law relationship to the applied voltage. Slow degradation failures fit well to an exponential law relationship to the applied electrical field. Finally, the impact of capacitor structure on the reliability of BME capacitors is discussed with respect to the number of dielectric layers in an MLCC unit, the number of BaTiO3 grains per dielectric layer, and the chip size of the capacitor device.

reliability↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Multiscale Progressive Failure Modeling Methodology for Composites that Includes Fiber Strength Stochastics

A multiscale modeling methodology was developed for continuous fiber composites that incorporates a statistical distribution of fiber strengths into coupled multiscale micromechanics/finite element (FE) analyses. A modified two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function, which accounts for the effect of fiber length on the probability of failure, was used to characterize the statistical distribution of fiber strengths. A parametric study using the NASA Micromechanics Analysis Code with the Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) was performed to assess the effect of variable fiber strengths on local composite failure within a repeating unit cell (RUC) and subsequent global failure. The NASA code FEAMAC and the ABAQUS finite element solver were used to analyze the progressive failure of a unidirectional SCS-6/TIMETAL 21S metal matrix composite tensile dogbone specimen at 650 degC. Multiscale progressive failure analyses were performed to quantify the effect of spatially varying fiber strengths on the RUC-averaged and global stress-strain responses and failure. The ultimate composite strengths and distribution of failure locations (predominately within the gage section) reasonably matched the experimentally observed failure behavior. The predicted composite failure behavior suggests that use of macroscale models that exploit global geometric symmetries are inappropriate for cases where the actual distribution of local fiber strengths displays no such symmetries. This issue has not received much attention in the literature. Moreover, the model discretization at a specific length scale can have a profound effect on the computational costs associated with multiscale simulations.models that yield accurate yet tractable results.

Generalized Method of Cells↗