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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia

Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal is to evaluate the SEAS5’s ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related interannual variability and predictability of the SAT over WSA, which is mediated through upper-level (200-hPa) geopotential height anomalies. This teleconnection leads to anomalously warm surface conditions over the region during the negative ENSO phase, as observed in the reanalysis and SEAS5. We evaluate SEAS5 prediction skill against two observations and three reanalyses datasets. The SEAS5 SAT prediction skill is higher with high spatial resolution observations and reanalysis datasets compared to the ones with low-resolution. Overall, SEAS5 shows reasonable skill in predicting SAT and its variability over the WSA region. Moreover, the predictability of SAT during La Niña is comparable to El Niño years over the WSA region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

AlphaBuilding ResCommunity: A multi-agent virtual testbed for community-level load coordination

Training and validating algorithms in a simulation testbed can accelerate research and applications of optimal control of residential loads to improve energy flexibility and grid resilience. We developed an open-source simulation environment, AlphaBuilding ResCommunity, that can be used to train and validate algorithms to control a single thermostatically controlled load (TCL) or coordinate a group of TCLs. We used reduced-order models to simulate the thermodynamics of TCLs, and the parameter values were determined from the connected smart thermostat data of real households. The environment was built upon the standardized OpenAI Gym interface. Ancillary functions, such as retrieving the parameters and weather forecasts, are provided to facilitate control strategies that require predictive information. Compared with existing efforts, AlphaBuilding ResCommunity has three advantages: (1) more realistic model settings because the parameter values are identified from actual household operating data, and modelling and measurement uncertainty are considered; (2) passive thermal storage control; and (3) ease of use due to a simple software dependency and standardized interface. We demonstrated the applications of the environment by implementing a Kalman Filter and Model Predictive Control on a single TCL and a Priority-Stack-Based Control and Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers to coordinate multiple TCLs for load tracking.

Wang, Z↗
DOE OSTI2022

Home energy management under realistic and uncertain conditions: A comparison of heuristic, deterministic, and stochastic control methods

We report home energy management systems (HEMS) have been shown to reduce energy bills and to provide grid services including peak demand reduction and demand flexibility. However, uncertainty in residential energy systems is a significant issue and can reduce the benefits of a HEMS to the homeowner or grid operator. Sources of uncertainty include weather forecasts, predictions of energy-related occupant activities (e.g., hot water draws), and parameter estimation for the building envelope and energy-consuming equipment. This paper tackles the problem of uncertainty by developing a framework that simulates HEMS in uncertain conditions and evaluates the performance of multiple control strategies. A linear, reduced-order residential building model for model predictive control applications is derived and compared to a full-order model. Stochastic model predictive control is shown to perform better than deterministic and heuristic methods when considering realistic forecasts with uncertainty. The framework can evaluate the performance of HEMS in real-world applications, which can help de-risk HEMS deployment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of aerosol cloud interactions with a consistent signal of meteorology and other influencing parameters

Quantifying the impact of aerosols on cloud micro/macro physical properties and estimating the signature of Aerosol Cloud Interactions (ACI) is one of the challenging tasks in atmospheric sciences. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-5 reanalysis data are employed to systematically study the ACI over the monsoon region in Pakistan. Based on the monsoon occurrence and rainfall intensity, the whole region is divided into three sub-regions labeled as highly intensive (R1), moderately intensive (R2) and weak (R3) monsoon region. The results indicate that the monthly mean Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) peaks in the summer monsoon months (Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep). Here, the well-known Twomey effect whereby the Cloud Droplet Radius (CDR) decreases with increasing AOD holds only over R3; the opposite effects (Anti-Twomey effect) are found over R1 and R2, all passing the test of statistical significance (p<0.05). The multi-year AOD is found to be positively correlated with Cloud Liquid Water Path (CLWP) and Cloud Optical Depth (COD) over R1 and R2, suggesting that thicker clouds containing more water droplets are formed in polluted atmosphere. Over R3, decreases in CLWP and COD are found with increasing AOD only when AOD is less than~0.325. The analysis of ACI over R1 and R2 during the winter months shows similar but stronger responses of CDR, CLWP and COD to the variation in AOD. The weaker responses during the summer monsoon season may attributed to the occurrence of high level cloud and unstable atmospheric condition. Further investigation of the influences of Relative Humidity and pressure vertical velocity on the CDR-AOD relationships shows that although the magnitude of the CDR-AOD correlations change with meteorological conditions, the sign of correlations remain unchanged with meteorological conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Independent and interactive effects of wet bulb globe temperature and air pollution exposures on suicide mortality

Background: Individual components of the ambient environment, such as temperature and air pollution, exist as part of a complex mixture and have been associated with suicide; however, their interactive effects remain poorly understood. This study examined the independent and interactive effects of wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) on suicide mortality. Methods: We identified 7,551 suicide cases in Utah, USA, from 2000 to 2016 and assigned exposure to daily maximum WBGT (sourced from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and PM 2.5 and NO 2 concentrations (sourced from a national spatiotemporal ensemble model) using decedent’s residential address at the time of death. A case-crossover design with conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the independent and interactive effects of WBGT max , PM 2.5 , and NO 2 on suicide. For exposure windows, we considered single days preceding suicide (lag 0 to 6) and their averages across preceding days (lag 0–1, 0–3, and 0–6). Analyses were stratified by season. Results: We identified a significant association between WBGT max and suicide across all seasons (odds ratio [OR] = 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01, 1.10; per 5 °C increase on lag 0–3 days). The associations were stronger in the warm season (March 22 to September 21), with ORs and 95% CIs ranging from 1.08 (1.02, 1.15) to 1.20 (1.10, 1.30) per 5 °C increase depending on the lag periods. We observed synergistic interactions between WBGT max and PM 2.5 and NO 2 in the warm season, associated with higher odds of suicide. The associations of WBGT max with suicide were most pronounced at high NO 2 levels. Conclusions: We found evidence of synergistic interactions between WBGT max and PM 2.5 and NO 2 on suicide in the warm season, emphasizing the need for considering the combined effects of heat stress and air pollution in suicide prevention strategies.

Fine particulate matter↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model predictive control of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems: A state-of-the-art review

Due to the fast advancement of communication and information technology, intelligent buildings have garnered great interest. These buildings can forecast weather, ambient temperature, and sun irradiation and can modify heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) operations appropriately, based on current and previous data. This change is intended to reduce HVAC system energy usage while maintaining an appropriate degree of thermal comfort and indoor air quality. Since its inception, model predictive control (MPC) has been one of the prospective solutions for HVAC management systems to reduce both costs and energy usage. Additionally, MPC is becoming increasingly practical as the processing capacity of building automation systems increases and a large quantity of monitored building data becomes available. MPC also provides the potential to improve the energy efficiency of HVAC systems via its capacity to consider limitations, to predict disruptions, and to factor in multiple competing goals such as interior thermal comfort and building energy consumption. Although substantial research has been conducted on MPC in building HVAC systems, there is a shortage of critical reviews and a lack of a comprehensive framework that formulates and defines the applications. Here, this article provides a comprehensive state-of-the-art overview of MPC in HVAC systems. Detailed discussions of modeling approaches and optimization algorithms are included. Numerous design aspects such as prediction horizon, occupancy behavior, building type, and cost function, that impact MPC performance are discussed in detail. The technical characteristics, advantages, and disadvantages of various types of modeling software are discussed. The primary objective of this work is to highlight critical design characteristics for the MPC control scheme and to give improved suggestions for future research. Moreover, numerous prospective scenarios have been suggested that might provide future research direction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Overview of ARTMIP's Tier 2 Reanalysis Intercomparison: Uncertainty in the Detection of Atmospheric Rivers and Their Associated Precipitation

Atmospheric rivers, or long but narrow regions of enhanced water vapor transport, are an important component of the hydrologic cycle as they are responsible for much of the poleward transport of water vapor and result in precipitation, sometimes extreme in intensity. Despite their importance, much uncertainty remains in the detection of atmospheric rivers in large datasets such as reanalyses and century scale climate simulations. To understand this uncertainty, the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) developed tiered experiments, including the Tier 2 Reanalysis Intercomparison that is presented here. Eleven detection algorithms submitted hourly tags--binary fields indicating the presence or absence of atmospheric rivers--of detected atmospheric rivers in the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5) as well as six-hourly tags in the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55). Due to a higher climatological mean for integrated water vapor transport in MERRA-2, atmospheric rivers were detected more frequently relative to the other two reanalyses, particularly in algorithms that use a fixed threshold for water vapor transport. The finer horizontal resolution of ERA5 resulted in narrower atmospheric rivers and an ability to detect atmospheric rivers along resolved coastlines. We found that the fraction of hemispheric area covered by ARs varies throughout the year in all three reanalyses, with different atmospheric river detection tools having different seasonal cycles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A High‐Resolution Tropical Mesoscale Convective System Reanalysis (TMeCSR)

Abstract Modern global reanalysis products have greatly accelerated meteorological research in synoptic‐to‐planetary‐scale phenomena. However, their use in studying tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and their regional‐to‐global impact has mostly been limited to supplying initial and boundary conditions for MCS‐resolving simulations and providing information about the large‐scale environments of MCSs. These limitations are due to difficulties in resolving tropical MCS dynamics in the relatively low‐resolution global models and that tropical MCSs often occur over poorly observed regions. In this work, a Tropical MCS‐resolving Reanalysis product (TMeCSR) was created over a region with frequent tropical MCSs. This region spans the tropical Indian Ocean, tropical continental Asia, Maritime Continent, and Western Pacific. TMeCSR is produced by assimilating all‐sky infrared radiances from geostationary satellites and other conventional observations into an MCS‐resolving regional model using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. The resulting observation‐constrained high‐resolution (9‐km grid spacing) data set is available hourly during the boreal summer (June‐August) of 2017, during which widespread severe flooding occurred. Comparisons of TMeCSR and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) against independent satellite retrievals indicate that TMeCSR's cloud and multiscale rain fields are better than those of ERA5. Furthermore, TMeCSR better captured the diurnal variability of rainfall and the statistical characteristics of MCSs. Forecasts initialized from TMeCSR also have more accurate rain and clouds than those initialized from ERA5. The TMeCSR and ERA5 forecasts have similar performances with respect to sounding and surface observations. These results indicate that TMeCSR is a promising MCS‐resolving data set for tropical MCS studies.

Chan, Man‐Yau↗
DOE OSTI2022

Yield Estimation of the August 2020 Beirut Explosion by Using Physics‐Based Propagation Simulations of Regional Infrasound

Abstract The August 2020 Beirut explosion is the largest single‐fired ammonium nitrate explosion documented in history. The massive explosion excited loud infrasound in the atmosphere, and clear waveforms were recorded by a regional infrasound array at an epicentral distance of 100 km, allowing for accurate measurements of explosion energy. We estimate the explosion size based on the infrasound waveform inversion. Unlike conventional inversions using empirical models, we perform full 3‐D finite‐difference simulations to obtain a physics‐based propagation model for the inversion. Accurate numerical modeling of infrasound is challenging as the propagation is substantially affected by the turbulent atmosphere. Instead of a single deterministic prediction, we provide a range of waveform predictions by running multiple simulations with stochastic weather forecast models, which allows for comprehensive uncertainty analysis of numerical modeling and estimated yields. Finally, we expand the yield estimation technique for seismoacoustic analysis and demonstrate the substantial advantage of the joint approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characteristics and Variability of Winter Northern Pacific Atmospheric River Flavors

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are intensive poleward moisture transport events that are essential to the global hydrological cycle and are often linked to extreme weather events. We categorize the winter North Pacific ARs into two “flavors”: wind‐dominated (windy ARs) and moisture‐dominated (wet ARs) using 40 years of hourly data from fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis. We compare the differences between windy ARs and wet ARs including the lifecycle characteristics (such as genesis locations and changes of meteorological elements through the lifecycle), overall AR frequency, landfall impacts, and variability. The windy ARs are more likely to occur in the midlatitudes, while wet ARs are more active in the subtropics. Windy ARs are associated with intensive surface pressure lows, where the strong pressure gradient can support the strong wind within ARs. Due to larger size and longer lifetime, wet ARs are more likely to produce more precipitation over a lifecycle. By scaling the landfalling ARs, we show that wet ARs dominate the high‐category ARs (Category 4 and 5) with higher spatial frequency and more precipitation, and windy ARs have higher contributions in the lower AR categories especially over British Columbia. Windy ARs are modulated by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections via the anomalous geopotential height and extended subtropical jet. Wet ARs are affected by the anomalous sea surface temperature over the midlatitudes related to ENSO. Sensitivity analysis with an alternate AR detection algorithm shows consistent results on AR flavors but with disagreement on the amplitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation and Optimization of Snow Albedo Scheme in Noah-MP Land Surface Model Using In Situ Spectral Observations in the Colorado Rockies

The Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) ground snow albedo algorithm is commonly used in land-surface models (LSM), weather forecasting and research applications. This study addresses key uncertainties in BATS simulated ground snow albedo within the Noah-MP LSM framework through evaluation and optimization of the Noah-MP BATS ground snow albedo formulation using 2-band (visible and near-infrared (NIR)) in situ albedo observations at Rocky Mountain field stations. The Noah-MP BATS ground snow albedo scheme is extremely sensitive to its input parameters. Namely, an ensemble generated by varying BATS input parameters within potentially plausible ranges provides an average daily range (maximum ensemble member minus minimum ensemble member) of ground snow albedo exceeding 0.45 in visible and NIR bands. Parameter optimization improves agreement between simulated and in situ observed ground snow albedo in visible, NIR and broadband spectrums. Importantly, optimized parameters result in reduced biases relative to observed fresh-snow albedo and better agreement with observed albedo decay. Our analysis across different sites supports that the optimized BATS ground snow albedo parameters are appropriate to transfer in space and time, at least within the region studied (the central-southern Rocky Mountains). The primary error source remaining after parameter optimization is that observed fresh-snow albedo is highly variable, particularly in the NIR spectrum, whereas BATS fresh-snow albedo is constant, an issue which requires further investigation. This study shows significant correlations between observed fresh-snow albedo and surface meteorological conditions (e.g., downward shortwave radiation and temperature) which can support future model development that attempts to include a time-varying formulation for fresh-snow albedo.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Use of Shallow Ice Core Measurements to Evaluate and Constrain 1980–1990 Global Reanalyses of Ice Sheet Precipitation Rates

Abstract Sea‐level rise (SLR) projections by Earth System Models (ESMs) depend on ice sheet surface mass balances. Accurate, global atmosphere reanalyses would be ideal for providing equilibrated ice sheet model initial conditions in fully coupled ESM simulations. Here we present the first evaluation of 1980–1990 global reanalysis precipitation over Greenland and Antarctica that uses independent observations of net accumulation rates derived from shallow ice cores. Precipitation distributions from both the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast's Reanalysis (ERA5) and the Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA‐2) are highly correlated with contemporaneous co‐located net accumulation rates from Greenland ( r 2 > 0.95) and West Antarctica ( r 2 > 0.7). Three other commonly used reanalyses (WFDE5, CRUNCEP, and GSWP3) exhibit significantly weaker correlations on one or both ice sheets. Our findings imply that ESMs should use ERA5 or MERRA‐2 in data‐forced simulations to validate ice sheet model dynamics and precondition firn for SLR projections.

Schneider, Adam↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cross‐Equatorial Surges Boost MJO's Southward Detour Over the Maritime Continent

Abstract The influence of the cross‐equatorial northerly surge (CES) on the eastward propagation of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter is evaluated through the analysis of the column integrated moisture budget. Results show that the CES reinforces MJO's southward detour by increasing horizontal moisture convergence over the southern Maritime Continent (MC) region. Further analysis reveals that the zonal convergence by intraseasonal zonal wind anomalies acting upon background moisture is intensified in the presence of CES events, causing a stronger convective activity in the southern MC (SMC). The stronger moisture convergence in the SMC is associated with the CES‐induced intensification of low‐level northwesterly and westerly winds, which, in turn, strengthen zonal wind convergences and positive wind‐evaporation feedbacks onto the MJO convection. An improved process understanding of the link between the CES and MJO detours can help engender improvements in extreme weather forecasts and aid investigation biases in simulating MJO in climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Latent and Kinetic Energy Trend Changes in Extratropical Cyclones From 1940 to 2020: Results From ERA‐5 Reanalysis

Abstract Baroclinic or extratropical cyclones (ETCs) transport heat and moisture to higher latitudes, making it fundamentally important to understand how their influence changes as Earth's climate evolves. A 2–8‐day Lanzcos bandpass filter is applied to European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting 5th Generation Reanalysis latent energy (LE) and kinetic energy (KE) data to assess how ETCs have changed from 1940 to 2020 relative to full‐scale changes in LE and KE. Full‐scale KE trends are more positive at high latitudes relative to mid‐latitudes, confirming several previous studies that ETCs have shifted poleward. LE increases have occurred globally, and trends in both full‐scale LE and KE are statistically significant in the southern high latitudes. The high relative fractional contribution of 2–8‐day LE wave power and trend clearly suggest that ETCs have an increasingly important role in poleward moisture transport but are not solely responsible for the observed statistically significant increases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Role of Non-Local Effects on Surface Sensible Heat Flux Under Different Types of Thermal Structures Over the Arctic Sea-Ice Surface

The effects of atmospheric thermal structure on the surface energy flux are poorly understood over the Arctic sea-ice surface. Here, we explore the mechanism of sensible heat exchange under different types of thermal structures over the Arctic sea-ice surface by using data collected during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate expedition. The quadrant analysis indicates that strong surface temperature inversions below 100 m enhance non-local effects on the positive (upward) sensible heat flux ($\overline{w'θ'}$) through entrainment of large eddies from the convective boundary layer aloft. However, strong surface inversions restrict the contributions of large eddies to the negative (downward) $\overline{w'θ'}$ due to intensified surface stability. By inspecting the existing parameterization schemes, we found that the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System scheme fails to predict the impacts of non-local processes on the positive $\overline{w'θ'}$, and an adjustment term to correct the bias of parameterized $\overline{w'θ'}$ is proposed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparing Gravity Waves in a Kilometer‐Scale Run of the IFS to AIRS Satellite Observations and ERA5

Abstract Atmospheric gravity waves (GWs) impact the circulation and variability of the atmosphere. Sub‐grid scale GWs, which are too small to be resolved, are parameterized in weather and climate models. However, some models are now available at resolutions at which these waves become resolved and it is important to test whether these models do this correctly. In this study, a GW resolving run of the European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), run with a 1.4 km average grid spacing (TCo7999 resolution), is compared to observations from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument, on NASA's Aqua satellite, to test how well the model resolves GWs that AIRS can observe. In this analysis, nighttime data are used from the first 10 days of November 2018 over part of Asia and surrounding regions. The IFS run is resampled with AIRS's observational filter using two different methods for comparison. The ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis is also resampled as AIRS, to allow for comparison of how the high resolution IFS run resolves GWs compared to a lower resolution model that uses GW drag parametrizations. Wave properties are found in AIRS and the resampled models using a multi‐dimensional S‐Transform method. Orographic GWs can be seen in similar locations at similar times in all three data sets. However, wave amplitudes and momentum fluxes in the resampled IFS run are found to be significantly lower than in the observations. This could be a result of horizontal and vertical wavelengths in the IFS run being underestimated.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Refining Planetary Boundary Layer Height Retrievals From Micropulse‐Lidar at Multiple ARM Sites Around the World

Abstract Knowledge of the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is crucial for various applications in atmospheric and environmental sciences. Lidar measurements are frequently used to monitor the evolution of the PBLH, providing more frequent observations than traditional radiosonde‐based methods. However, lidar‐derived PBLH estimates have substantial uncertainties, contingent upon the retrieval algorithm used. In addressing this, we applied the Different Thermo‐Dynamic Stabilities (DTDS) algorithm to establish a PBLH data set at five separate Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement sites across the globe. Both the PBLH methodology and the products are subject to rigorous assessments in terms of their uncertainties and constraints, juxtaposing them with other products. The DTDS‐derived product consistently aligns with radiosonde PBLH estimates, with correlation coefficients exceeding 0.77 across all sites. This study delves into a detailed examination of the strengths and limitations of PBLH data sets with respect to both radiosonde‐derived and other lidar‐based estimates of the PBLH by exploring their respective errors and uncertainties. It is found that varying techniques and definitions can lead to diverse PBLH retrievals due to the inherent intricacy and variability of the boundary layer. Our DTDS‐derived PBLH data set outperforms existing products derived from ceilometer data, offering a more precise representation of the PBLH. This extensive data set paves the way for advanced studies and an improved understanding of boundary‐layer dynamics, with valuable applications in weather forecasting, climate modeling, and environmental studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗