Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “WS”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1998

WSR-88D Cell Trends

This report documents the Applied Meteorology Unit's evaluation of the Cell Trends display as a tool for radar operators to use in their evaluation of storm cell strength. The objective of the evaluation is to assess the utility of the WSR-88D graphical Cell Trends display for local radar cell interpretation in support of the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG), and National Weather Service (NWS) Melbourne (MLB) operational requirements. The analysis procedure was to identify each cell and track the maximum reflectivity, height of maximum reflectivity, storm top, storm base, hail and severe hail probability, cell-based Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL) and core aspect ratio using WATADS Build 9.0 cell trends information. One problem noted in the analysis phase was that the Storm Cell Identification and Tracking (SCIT) algorithm had a difficult time tracking the small cells associated with the Florida weather regimes. The analysis indicated numerous occasions when a cell track would end or an existing cell would be give a new ID in the middle of its life cycle. This investigation has found that most cells, which produce hail or microburst events, have discernable Cell Trends signatures. Forecasters should monitor the PUP's Cell Trends display for cells that show rapid (1 scan) changes in both the heights of maximum reflectivity and cell-based VIEL. It is important to note that this a very limited data set (four case days). Fifty-two storm cells were analyzed during those four days. The above mentioned t=ds, increase in the two cell attributes for hail events and decrease in the two cell attributes for wind events were noted in most of the cells. The probability of detection was 88% for both events. The False Alarm Rate (FAR) was a 36% for hail events and a respectable 25% for microburst events. In addition the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) is 0.65 for hail events and 0.67 for microburst events. For random forecast the HSS is 0 and that a perfect score is 1.

Wheeler, Mark M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Prototype Local Data Integration System and Central Florida Data Deficiency

This report describes the Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU) task on the Local Data Integration System (LDIS) and central Florida data deficiency. The objectives of the task are to identify all existing meteorological data sources within 250 km of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Eastern Range at Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS), identify and configure an appropriate LDIS to integrate these data, and implement a working prototype to be used for limited case studies and data non-incorporation (DNI) experiments. The ultimate goal for running LDIS is to generate products that may enhance weather nowcasts and short-range (less than 6 h) forecasts issued in support of the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG), and the Melbourne National Weather Service (NWS MLB) operational requirements. The LDIS has the potential to provide added value for nowcasts and short term forecasts for two reasons. First, it incorporates all data operationally available in east central Florida. Second, it is run at finer spatial and temporal resolutions than current national-scale operational models. In combination with a suitable visualization tool, LDIS may provide users with a more complete and comprehensive understanding of evolving fine-scale weather features than could be developed by individually examining the disparate data sets over the same area and time. The utility of LDIS depends largely on the reliability and availability of observational data. Therefore, it is important to document all existing meteorological data sources around central Florida that can be incorporated by it. Several factors contribute to the data density and coverage over east central Florida including the level in the atmosphere, distance from KSC/CCAS, time, and prevailing weather. The central Florida mesonet consists of existing surface meteorological and hydrological data available from the Tampa NWS and data servers at Miami and Jacksonville. However the utility of these data for operational use is limited, mainly because there are relatively few additional meteorological observations within 50 km of KSC/CCAS to supplement existing METAR and KSC/CCAS tower reports.

Manobianco, John↗
NASA NTRS1999

Local Data Integration in East Central Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit has configured a Local Data Integration System (LDIS) for east central Florida which assimilates in-situ and remotely-sensed observational data into a series of high-resolution gridded analyses. The ultimate goal for running LDIS is to generate products that may enhance weather nowcasts and short-range (less than 6 h) forecasts issued in support of the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG), and the Melbourne National Weather Service (NWS MLB) operational requirements. LDIS has the potential to provide added value for nowcasts and short-ten-n forecasts for two reasons. First, it incorporates all data operationally available in east central Florida. Second, it is run at finer spatial and temporal resolutions than current national-scale operational models such as the Rapid Update Cycle and Eta models. LDIS combines all available data to produce grid analyses of primary variables (wind, temperature, etc.) at specified temporal and spatial resolutions. These analyses of primary variables can be used to compute diagnostic quantities such as vorticity and divergence. This paper demonstrates the utility of LDIS over east central Florida for a warm season case study. The evolution of a significant thunderstorm outflow boundary is depicted through horizontal and vertical cross section plots of wind speed, divergence, and circulation. In combination with a suitable visualization too], LDIS may provide users with a more complete and comprehensive understanding of evolving mesoscale weather than could be developed by individually examining the disparate data sets over the same area and time.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Comparison of Full and Partial Admission Flow Fields in the Simplex Turbine

The objectives of this project were to: (1) determine the effects of partial admission flow on rotor performance as a function of circumferential location and on unsteady rotor loading; and (2) Provide an efficient technique for determining turbine performance. Full admission simulation ws performed for the Simplex turbine and partial admission simulation is underway for the Simplex turbine.

Dorney, Daniel J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Development and growth of several strains of Arabidopsis seedlings in microgravity

Growth and development of dark-grown Arabidopsis thaliana seedlings were studied in microgravity during space shuttle mission STS-84. The major purpose of this project was to determine if there were developmental differences among the four ecotypes studied--Wassilewskija (Ws), Columbia (Col), Landsberg erecta (Ler), and C24--and to evaluate whether particular ecotypes are better suited for spaceflight experimentation compared with others. A secondary goal was to study the growth of three starch-deficient strains of Arabidopsis by extending the observations made in a previously published report. For all strains, seed germination was not affected by microgravity, but seedlings were smaller in the spaceflight samples compared with the ground controls. The starch-deficient strains continued to exhibit vigorous growth until the termination of the experiment at 121 h after imbibition of seeds. However, ethylene effects, i.e., reduced growth and exaggerated hypocotyl hooks, were observed in all strains studied. Nevertheless, the Ler and C24 ecotypes seem to be more suitable for spaceflight research, compared with the other two ecotypes, based on measurements of their relative and absolute growth. This type of information should aid in the design of plant experiments for the International Space Station.

NASA Discipline Plant Biology↗
NASA NTRS1999

Effects of immersion in cool water on lung-exhaled nitric oxide at rest and during exercise

Lung nitric oxide (NO) has been postulated to relax airway and vascular smooth muscle at rest and during exercise. As a cold environment is a common cause of respiratory distress, lung exhaled NO was measured during skin and core body cooling at rest and during a progressive cycle exercise. Ten healthy male subjects were immersed in water at a water temperature (Tw) which was thermal neutral (35 degrees C) at 30 degrees C Tw, at which only skin temperature is decreased; and at 20 degrees C Tw, at which the core temperature is decreased (0.05 degrees C). At rest, V(O), and V(E) increased while exhaled NO concentration [NO] and the rate of expiration of NO (V(NO)) decreased with decreased Tw. V(O2) and ventilation (V(E)) increased with workload (W) and the values at all Tw were not different, whereas, [NO] decreased with W and the values during exercise were progressively less at all Ws as Tw declined. These results indicate that lung NO output is reduced in a graded fashion during body cooling at rest and during exercise. This suggests that lower lung NO may contribute to airway obstruction in cold environments and NO may contribute to regulation of lung heat and water exchange.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2007

Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase II

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to update the lightning probability forecast equations developed in Phase I. In the time since the Phase I equations were developed, new ideas regarding certain predictors were formulated and a desire to make the tool more automated was expressed by 45 WS forecasters. Five modifications were made to the data: 1) increased the period of record from 15 to 17 years, 2) modified the valid area to match the lighting warning areas, 3) added the 1000 UTC CCAFS sounding to the other soundings in determining the flow regime, 4) used a different smoothing function for the daily climatology, and 5) determined the optimal relative humidity (RH) layer to use as a predictor. The new equations outperformed the Phase I equations in several tests, and improved the skill of the forecast over the Phase I equations by 8%. A graphical user interface (GUI) was created in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) that gathers the predictor values for the equations automatically. The GUI was transitioned to operations in May 2007 for the 2007 warm season.

Lambert, Winifred↗
NASA NTRS2008

Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, Phase II

Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Light Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) created a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display Systems (MIDDS) to indicate the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗
NASA NTRS2009

The New Weather Radar for America's Space Program in Florida: A Temperature Profile Adaptive Scan Strategy

A new weather radar is being acquired for use in support of America s space program at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, NASA Kennedy Space Center, and Patrick AFB on the east coast of central Florida. This new radar replaces the modified WSR-74C at Patrick AFB that has been in use since 1984. The new radar is a Radtec TDR 43-250, which has Doppler and dual polarization capability. A new fixed scan strategy was designed to best support the space program. The fixed scan strategy represents a complex compromise between many competing factors and relies on climatological heights of various temperatures that are important for improved lightning forecasting and evaluation of Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LCC), which are the weather rules to avoid lightning strikes to in-flight rockets. The 0 C to -20 C layer is vital since most generation of electric charge occurs within it and so it is critical in evaluating Lightning LCC and in forecasting lightning. These are two of the most important duties of 45 WS. While the fixed scan strategy that covers most of the climatological variation of the 0 C to -20 C levels with high resolution ensures that these critical temperatures are well covered most of the time, it also means that on any particular day the radar is spending precious time scanning at angles covering less important heights. The goal of this project is to develop a user-friendly, Interactive Data Language (IDL) computer program that will automatically generate optimized radar scan strategies that adapt to user input of the temperature profile and other important parameters. By using only the required scan angles output by the temperature profile adaptive scan strategy program, faster update times for volume scans and/or collection of more samples per gate for better data quality is possible, while maintaining high resolution at the critical temperature levels. The temperature profile adaptive technique will also take into account earth curvature and refraction when geo-locating the radar beam (i.e., beam height and arc distance), including non-standard refraction based on the user-input temperature profile. In addition to temperature profile adaptivity, this paper will also summarize the other requirements for this scan strategy program such as detection of low-level boundaries, detection of anvil clouds, reducing the Cone Of Silence, and allowing for times when deep convective clouds will not occur. The adaptive technique will be carefully compared to and benchmarked against the new fixed scan strategy. Specific environmental scenarios in which the adaptive scan strategy is able to optimize and improve coverage and resolution at critical heights, scan time, and/or sample numbers relative to the fixed scan strategy will be presented.

Carey, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Verify MesoNAM Performance

The AMU conducted an objective analysis of the MesoNAM forecasts compared to observed values from sensors at specified KSC/CCAFS wind towers by calculating the following statistics to verify the performance of the model: 1) Bias (mean difference), 2) Standard deviation of Bias, 3) Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and 4) Hypothesis test for Bias = O. The 45 WS LWOs use the MesoNAM to support launch weather operations. However, the actual performance of the model at KSC and CCAFS had not been measured objectively. The analysis compared the MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and dew point to the observed values from the sensors on wind towers. The data were stratified by tower sensor, month and onshore/offshore wind direction based on the orientation of the coastline to each tower's location. The model's performance statistics were then calculated for each wind tower based on sensor height and model initialization time. The period of record for the data used in this task was based on the operational start of the current MesoNAM in mid-August 2006 and so the task began with the first full month of data, September 2006, through May 2010. The analysis of model performance indicated: a) The accuracy decreased as the forecast valid time from the model initialization increased, b) There was a diurnal signal in T with a cool bias during the late night and a warm bias during the afternoon, c) There was a diurnal signal in Td with a low bias during the afternoon and a high bias during the late night, and d) The model parameters at each vertical level most closely matched the observed parameters at heights closest to those vertical levels. The AMU developed a GUI that consists of a multi-level drop-down menu written in JavaScript embedded within the HTML code. This tool allows the LWO to easily and efficiently navigate among the charts and spreadsheet files containing the model performance statistics. The objective statistics give the LWOs knowledge of the model's strengths and weaknesses and the GUI allows quick access to the data which will result in improved forecasts for operations.

Bauman, William H., III↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Meso-Climatology Study of the High-Resolution Tower Network Over the Florida Spaceport

Forecasters at the US Air Force 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) use wind and temperature data from the tower network over the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to evaluate Launch Commit Criteria and to issue and verify temperature and wind advisories, watches, and warnings for ground operations. The Spaceflight Meteorology Group at the Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX also uses these data when issuing forecasts for shuttle landings at the KSC Shuttle Landing Facility. Systematic biases in these parameters at any of the towers could adversely affect an analysis, forecast, or verification for all of these operations. In addition, substantial geographical variations in temperature and wind speed can occur under specific wind directions. Therefore, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU), operated by ENSCO Inc., was tasked to develop a monthly and hourly climatology of temperatures and winds from the tower network, and identify the geographical variation, tower biases, and the magnitude of those biases. This paper presents a sub-set of results from a nine-year climatology of the KSC/CCAFS tower network, highlighting the geographical variations based on location, month, times of day, and specific wind direction regime. Section 2 provides a description of the tower mesonetwork and instrumentation characteristics. Section 3 presents the methodology used to construct the tower climatology including QC methods and data processing. The results of the tower climatology are presented in Section 4 and Section 5 summarizes the paper.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Compact, Low-Force, Low-Noise Linear Actuator

Actuators are critical to all the robotic and manipulation mechanisms that are used in current and future NASA missions, and are also needed for many other industrial, aeronautical, and space activities. There are many types of actuators that were designed to operate as linear or rotary motors, but there is still a need for low-force, low-noise linear actuators for specialized applications, and the disclosed mechanism addresses this need. A simpler implementation of a rotary actuator was developed where the end effector controls the motion of a brush for cleaning a thermal sensor. The mechanism uses a SMA (shape-memory alloy) wire for low force, and low noise. The linear implementation of the actuator incorporates a set of springs and mechanical hard-stops for resetting and fault tolerance to mechanical resistance. The actuator can be designed to work in a pull or push mode, or both. Depending on the volume envelope criteria, the actuator can be configured for scaling its volume down to 4 2 1 cm3. The actuator design has an inherent fault tolerance to mechanical resistance. The actuator has the flexibility of being designed for both linear and rotary motion. A specific configuration was designed and analyzed where fault-tolerant features have been implemented. In this configuration, an externally applied force larger than the design force does not damage the active components of the actuator. The actuator housing can be configured and produced using cost-effective methods such as injection molding, or alternatively, its components can be mounted directly on a small circuit board. The actuator is driven by a SMA -NiTi as a primary active element, and it requires energy on the order of 20 Ws(J) per cycle. Electrical connections to points A and B are used to apply electrical power in the resistive NiTi wire, causing a phase change that contracts the wire on the order of 5%. The actuation period is of the order of a second for generating the stroke, and 4 to 10 seconds for resetting. Thus, this design allows the actuator to work at a frequency of up to 0.1 Hz. The actuator does not make use of the whole range of motion of the SMA material, allowing for large margins on the mechanical parameters of the design. The efficiency of the actuator is of the order of 10%, including the margins. The average dissipated power while driving at full speed is of the order of 1 W, and can be scaled down linearly if the rate of cycling is reduced. This design produces an extremely quiet actuator; it can generate a force greater than 2 N and a stroke greater than 1 cm. The operational duration of SMA materials is of the order of millions of cycles with some reduced stroke over a wide temperature range up to 150 C.

Badescu, Mircea↗
NASA NTRS2013

Integrating Wind Profiling Radars and Radiosonde Observations with Model Point Data to Develop a Decision Support Tool to Assess Upper-Level Winds for Space Launch

On the day-of-launch, the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) monitor the upper-level winds for their launch customers to include NASA's Launch Services Program and NASA's Ground Systems Development and Operations Program. They currently do not have the capability to display and overlay profiles of upper-level observations and numerical weather prediction model forecasts. The LWOs requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool in the form of a graphical user interface (GUI) that will allow them to plot upper-level wind speed and direction observations from the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) 50 MHz tropospheric wind profiling radar, KSC Shuttle Landing Facility 915 MHz boundary layer wind profiling radar and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Automated Meteorological Processing System (AMPS) radiosondes, and then overlay forecast wind profiles from the model point data including the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model, Rapid Refresh (RAP) model and Global Forecast System (GFS) model to assess the performance of these models. The AMU developed an Excel-based tool that provides an objective method for the LWOs to compare the model-forecast upper-level winds to the KSC wind profiling radars and CCAFS AMPS observations to assess the model potential to accurately forecast changes in the upperlevel profile through the launch count. The AMU wrote Excel Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) scripts to automatically retrieve model point data for CCAFS (XMR) from the Iowa State University Archive Data Server (http://mtarchive.qeol.iastate.edu) and the 50 MHz, 915 MHz and AMPS observations from the NASA/KSC Spaceport Weather Data Archive web site (http://trmm.ksc.nasa.gov). The AMU then developed code in Excel VBA to automatically ingest and format the observations and model point data in Excel to ready the data for generating Excel charts for the LWO's. The resulting charts allow the LWOs to independently initialize the three models 0-hour forecasts against the observations to determine which is the best performing model and then overlay the model forecasts on time-matched observations during the launch countdown to further assess the model performance and forecasts. This paper will demonstrate integration of observed and predicted atmospheric conditions into a decision support tool and demonstrate how the GUI is implemented in operations.

Bauman, William H., III↗
NASA NTRS2012

Compact, Low-Force, Low-Noise Linear Actuator

Actuators are critical to all the robotic and manipulation mechanisms that are used in current and future NASA missions, and are also needed for many other industrial, aeronautical, and space activities. There are many types of actuators that were designed to operate as linear or rotary motors, but there is still a need for low-force, low-noise linear actuators for specialized applications, and the disclosed mechanism addresses this need. A simpler implementation of a rotary actuator was developed where the end effector controls the motion of a brush for cleaning a thermal sensor. The mechanism uses a SMA (shape-memory alloy) wire for low force, and low noise. The linear implementation of the actuator incorporates a set of springs and mechanical hard-stops for resetting and fault tolerance to mechanical resistance. The actuator can be designed to work in a pull or push mode, or both. Depending on the volume envelope criteria, the actuator can be configured for scaling its volume down to 4x2x1 cu cm. The actuator design has an inherent fault tolerance to mechanical resistance. The actuator has the flexibility of being designed for both linear and rotary motion. A specific configuration was designed and analyzed where fault-tolerant features have been implemented. In this configuration, an externally applied force larger than the design force does not damage the active components of the actuator. The actuator housing can be configured and produced using cost-effective methods such as injection molding, or alternatively, its components can be mounted directly on a small circuit board. The actuator is driven by a SMA -NiTi as a primary active element, and it requires energy on the order of 20 Ws(J) per cycle. Electrical connections to points A and B are used to apply electrical power in the resistive NiTi wire, causing a phase change that contracts the wire on the order of 5%. The actuation period is of the order of a second for generating the stroke, and 4 to 10 seconds for resetting. Thus, this design allows the actuator to work at a frequency of up to 0.1 Hz. The actuator does not make use of the whole range of motion of the SMA material, allowing for large margins on the mechanical parameters of the design. The efficiency of the actuator is of the order of 10%, including the margins. The average dissipated power while driving at full speed is of the order of 1 W, and can be scaled down linearly if the rate of cycling is reduced. This design produces an extremely quiet actuator; it can generate a force greater than 2 N and a stroke greater than 1 cm. The operational duration of SMA materials is of the order of millions of cycles with some reduced stroke over a wide temperature range up to 150 C.

Badescu, Mircea↗
NASA NTRS2012

Observations of C-Band Brightness Temperature and Ocean Surface Wind Speed and Rain Rate in Hurricanes Earl And Karl (2010)

Ocean surface emission is affected by: a) Sea surface temperature. b) Wind speed (foam fraction). c) Salinity After production of calibrated Tb fields, geophysical fields wind speed and rain rate (or column) are retrieved. HIRAD utilizes NASA Instrument Incubator Technology: a) Provides unique observations of sea surface wind, temp and rain b) Advances understanding & prediction of hurricane intensity c) Expands Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer capabilities d) Uses synthetic thinned array and RFI mitigation technology of Lightweight Rain Radiometer (NASA Instrument Incubator) Passive Microwave C-Band Radiometer with Freq: 4, 5, 6 & 6.6 GHz: a) Version 1: H-pol for ocean wind speed, b) Version 2: dual ]pol for ocean wind vectors. Performance Characteristics: a) Earth Incidence angle: 0deg - 60deg, b) Spatial Resolution: 2-5 km, c) Swath: approx.70 km for 20 km altitude. Observational Goals: WS 10 - >85 m/s RR 5 - > 100 mm/hr.

Miller, Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2013

Integrating Wind Profiling Radars and Radiosonde Observations with Model Point Data to Develop a Decision Support Tool to Assess Upper-Level Winds for Space Launch

On the day of launch, the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) monitor the upper-level winds for their launch customers. During launch operations, the payload/launch team sometimes asks the LWOs if they expect the upper-level winds to change during the countdown. The LWOs used numerical weather prediction model point forecasts to provide the information, but did not have the capability to quickly retrieve or adequately display the upper-level observations and compare them directly in the same display to the model point forecasts to help them determine which model performed the best. The LWOs requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a graphical user interface (GUI) that will plot upper-level wind speed and direction observations from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Automated Meteorological Profiling System (AMPS) rawinsondes with point forecast wind profiles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Mesoscale (NAM), Rapid Refresh (RAP) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models to assess the performance of these models. The AMU suggested adding observations from the NASA 50 MHz wind profiler and one of the US Air Force 915 MHz wind profilers, both located near the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Shuttle Landing Facility, to supplement the AMPS observations with more frequent upper-level profiles. Figure 1 shows a map of KSC/CCAFS with the locations of the observation sites and the model point forecasts.

Bauman, William H., III↗
NASA NTRS2007

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision at the Shuttle Landing Facility. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. Both the SMG and the MLB are currently implementing the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software into their operations. The WRF EMS software allows users to employ both dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model- the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and NWS MLB with a lot of flexibility. It also creates challenges, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. Four different combinations of WRF initializations will be run (ADAS-ARW, ADAS-NMM, LAPS-ARW, and LAPS-NMM) at a 4-km resolution over the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. Five candidate convective initiation days using three different flow regimes over East-Central Florida will be examined, as well as two null cases (non-convection days). Each model run will be integrated 12 hours with three runs per day, at 0900, 1200, and 1500 UTe. ADAS analyses will be generated every 30 minutes using Level II Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from all Florida radars to verify the convection forecast. These analyses will be run on the same domain as the four model configurations. To quantify model performance, model output will be subjectively compared to the ADAS analyses of convection to determine forecast accuracy. In addition, a subjective comparison of the performance of the ARW using a high-resolution local grid with 2-way nesting, I-way nesting, and no nesting will be made for select convective initiation cases. The inner grid will cover the East-Central Florida region at a resolution of 1.33 km. The authors will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for predicting warm season convective initiation over East-Central Florida.

Watson, Leela R.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Shuttle Flight Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to create a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) that indicates the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input. The tool creates a graphic depicting the potential location of thunderstorm anvils one, two, and three hours into the future. The locations are based on the average of the upper level observed or forecasted winds. The graphic includes 10 and 20 n mi standoff circles centered at the location of interest, as well as one-, two-, and three-hour arcs in the upwind direction. The arcs extend outward across a 30 sector width based on a previous AMU study that determined thunderstorm anvils move in a direction plus or minus 15 of the upper-level wind direction. The AMU was then tasked to transition the tool to the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). SMG later requested the tool be updated to provide more flexibility and quicker access to model data. This presentation describes the work performed by the AMU to transition the tool into AWIPS, as well as the subsequent improvements made to the tool.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗