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Upwelling-Induced Primary Productivity in Coastal Waters of the Black Sea: Impact on Algorithms for Remote Sensing

This research program was a collaborative effort to investigate the impact of rapid changes in the water column during coastal upwelling, on biological and optical properties. These properties are important for constructing region or event-specific algorithms for remote sensing of pigment concentration and primary productivity and for comparing these algorithms with those used for the development of large scale maps from ocean color. We successfully achieved the primary objective of this research project which was to study in situ the dynamics of rapid spatial and temporal changes in properties of the water column during, coastal upwelling off the Crimean Coast in the Black Sea. The work was a collaborative effort between a group of biological and physical oceanographers from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and from two oceanographic research institutions in the Crimea, Ukraine, located near the study site, the Marine Hydrophysical Institute (MHI) and the Institute of Biology of the Southern Seas (IBSS). The site was an ideal experimental model, both from a technical and economic standpoint, because of the predictable summer upwelling that occurs in the region and because of the availability of both a ship on call and laboratory and remote sensing facilities at the nearby marine institutes. We used a combination of shipboard measurements and remote sensing to investigate the physical evolution of rapid upwelling events and their impact on photoplankton and water column optical properties. The field work involved a two day cruise for mooring, deployment and a three day baseline survey cruise, followed by an eleven day primary cruise during, a summer upwelling event (anticipated by monitoring local winds and tracked by remote sensing imaging). An MHI ship was outfitted and used for these purposes.

Goldman, Joel C.↗

STS-87 Day 14 Highlights

On this fourteenth day of the STS-87 mission, the flight crew, Cmdr. Kevin R. Kregel, Pilot Steven W. Lindsey, Mission Specialists Winston E. Scott, Kalpana Chawla, and Takao Doi, and Payload Specialist Leonid K. Kadenyuk focus on completion of hands-on sample processing in the microgravity glovebox facility. They also prepare the spacesuits and tools that will be used for the EVA by Scott and Doi. The crew take time out from their schedule to discuss the mission with reporters from the U.S., Japan and the Ukraine during the traditional in-flight news conference.

Source record↗

ISWE: A Case Study of Technology Utilization

The International Space Welding Experiment is a joint project between the E.O. Paton Welding Institute of Kiev, Ukraine and the George C. Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama. When an international partner is involved in a project, differences in design and testing philosophy can become a factor in the development of the hardware. This report addresses selected issues that arose during the ISWE hardware development as well as the solutions the ISWE team made.

Benfield, M. P.↗

An Assessment of Molten Metal Detachment Hazards During Electron Beam Welding in the Space Shuttle Bay at LEO for the International Space Welding Experiment

In 1997, the United States [NASA] and the Paton Electric Welding Institute are scheduled to cooperate in a flight demonstration on the U.S. Space Shuttle to demonstrate the feasibility of welding in space for a possible repair option for the International Space Station Alpha. This endeavor, known as the International Space Welding Experiment (ISWE), will involve astronauts performing various welding exercises such as brazing, cutting, welding, and coating using an electron beam space welding system that was developed by the E.O. Paton Electric Welding Institute (PWI), Kiev Ukraine. This electron beam welding system known as the "Universal Weld System" consists of hand tools capable of brazing, cutting, autogeneous welding, and coating using an 8 kV (8000 volts) electron beam. The electron beam hand tools have also been developed by the Paton Welding Institute with greater capabilities than the original hand tool, including filler wire feeding, to be used with the Universal Weld System on the U.S. Space Shuttle Bay as part of ISWE. The hand tool(s) known as the Ukrainian Universal Hand [Electron Beam Welding] Tool (UHT) will be utilized for the ISWE Space Shuttle flight welding exercises to perform welding on various metal alloy samples. A total of 61 metal alloy samples, which include 304 stainless steel, Ti-6AI-4V, 2219 aluminum, and 5456 aluminum alloys, have been provided by NASA for the ISWE electron beam welding exercises using the UHT. These samples were chosen to replicate both the U.S. and Russian module materials. The ISWE requires extravehicular activity (EVA) of two astronauts to perform the space shuttle electron beam welding operations of the 61 alloy samples. This study was undertaken to determine if a hazard could exist with ISWE during the electron beam welding exercises in the Space Shuttle Bay using the Ukrainian Universal Weld System with the UHT. The safety issue has been raised with regard to molten metal detachments as a result of several possible causes such as welder procedural error, externally applied impulsive forces(s), filler wire entrainment and snap-out, cutting expulsion, and puddle expulsion. Molten metal detachment from either the weld/cut substrate or weld wire could present harm to a astronaut in the space environment it the detachment was ti burn through the fabric of the astronaut Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMC). In this paper an experimental test was performed in a 4 ft. x 4 ft. vacuum chamber at MSFC enabling protective garment to be exposed to the molten metal drop detachments to over 12 inches. The chamber was evacuated to vacuum levels of at least 1 x 10(exp -5) torr (50 micro-torr) during operation of the 1.0 kW Universal Hand Tool (UHT). The UHT was manually operated at the power mode appropriate for each material and thickness. The space suit protective welding garment, made of Teflon fabric (10 oz. per yard) with a plain weave, was placed on the floor of the vacuum chamber to catch the molten metal drop detachments. A pendulum release mechanism consisting of four hammers, each weighing approximately 3.65 lbs, was used to apply an impact forces to the weld sample/plate during both the electron beam welding and cutting exercises. Measurements were made of the horizontal fling distances of the detached molten metal drops. The volume of a molten metal drop can also be estimated from the size of the cut. Utilizing equations, calculations were made to determine chande in surafec area (Delat a(surface)) for 304 stainless steel for cutting based on measurements of metal drop sizes at the cut edges. For the cut sample of 304 stainless steel based on measurement of the drop size at the edge, Delta-a(surface) was determined to be 0.0054 2 in . Calculations have indicated only a small amount of energy is required to detach a liquid metal drop. For example, approximately only 0.000005 ft-lb of energy is necessary to detach a liquid metal steel drop based on the above theoretical analysis. However, some of the energy will be absorbed by the plate before it reaches the metal drop. Based on the theoretical calculations, it was determined that during a weld cutting exercise, the titanium alloy would be the most difficult to detach molten metal droplets followed by stainless steel and then by aluminum. The results of the experimental effort have shown that molten metal will detach if large enough of a hammer blow is applied to the weld sample plate during the full penetration welding and cutting exercises. However, no molten metal detachments occurred as a result of the filler wire snap-out tests from the weld puddle since it was too difficult to cause the metal to flick-out from the pool. Molten metal detachments, though not large in size, did result from the direct application of the electron beam on the end of the filler weld wire.

Fragomeni, James M.↗

Evaluation of the Universal Hand Tool for Metals Processing in Space

The Paton Welding Institute, Kiev, Ukraine, has developed the Universal Hand Tool for processing Metals in the space environment. The Universal is a hand held, 1 kilowatt electron beam welding tool designed to accept attachments to enable welding with and without filler wire, cutting, and coating by vapor deposition. The Marshall Space Flight Center, together with the Paton Institute, designed and developed the International Space Welding Experiment (ISWE) to demonstrate the Universal Welding System during an extravehicular activity on STS-87. ISWE was subsequently demanifested and has not been remanifested at this time. This paper describes the science objectives of ISWE, the safety hazards associated with manual welding in space and the associated resolutions, and the results of ground based development efforts. The Universal was adequate for processing the samples planned for ISWE and was successfully modified to meet shuttle payload constraints. Sample cleanliness and operator training proved to be the primary drivers for the quality of the processed samples.

Russell, Carolyn↗

Experience and Challenges in Implementing Stratospheric Aerosol Gas Experiment on Meteor-3M Platform

Implementation of Stratospheric Aerosol Gas Experiment (SAGE) is a joint science mission between the Rosavioskosmos, also called Russian Aviation and Space Agency (RASA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Under the global collaboration agreement established by President Clinton and Yeltsin in 1995 between the United States and Russia, space was one of the major areas identified for joint scientific collaboration. There were several collaborative projects identified under space, earth, human exploration of space and aeronautics. SAGE was one of the key Earth Science instruments selected common to both countries' interests in ozone research. SAGE has a long space heritage, and four earlier versions of this instrument have flown in space for the last 15-year period. It has provided a vital ozone and aerosol data in the mid latitudes and has contributed in the overall ozone depletion research. SAGE II, the fourth instrument has been flying in space on NASA's Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) for the last 14 years. Ball Aerospace built the instrument under Langley Research Center's (LaRC) management. SAGE III for Russian Meteor-3M mission is a third generation design with more spectral bands, elaborate data gathering and storage and intelligent terrestrial software. The Russian collaboration required a complete integration of SAGE III on the Russian Meteor-3M satellite and a launch on a Zenit-2 launch vehicle manufactured in Ukraine. The whole complex is scheduled to be launched from Baikonur cosmodrome in early 2001. This cooperative mission has presented a number of management, technical and logistical challenges on both sides. This paper makes an attempt to review and document such experiences.

Habib, Shahid↗

Intercontinental Bistatic Radar Test Observation of Asteroid 1998 WT24

We describe the first intercontinental planetary radar test performed in Italy observing the near Earth asteroid (NEA) 33342 (1998 WT24) in December 2001 by means of the bistatic configurations Goldstone (California, USA)-Medicina (Italy) and Evpatoria (Ukraine)-Medicina. The experiment goal was to characterize the system for realtime radar follow-up observations of NEAs and artificial orbiting debris, in the framework of a feasibility study which aims at using the Sardinia Radio Telescope, at present under construction, also as a planetary radar facility. We report the preliminary results of the radar observations carried out by the IRA-CNR (Instituto di Radioastronomia - Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche) and the OATo (Osservatorio Astronomico di Torino) groups, aimed at exploring the scientific potentials of a new space radar program, using the existing facilities in Italy. The planetary radar technique is uniquely capable of investigating geometry and surface properties of various solar system objects, demonstrating advantages over the optical methods in its high spatial resolution and ability to obtain three-dimensional images. A single radar detection allows to obtain extremely accurate orbital elements, improving the instantaneous positional uncertainties by orders of magnitude with respect to an optically determined orbit. Radar is a powerful means to spatially resolve NEAs by measuring the distribution of the echo power in time delay (range) and Doppler frequency (line-of-sight velocity) with extreme precision in each coordinate, as it provides detailed information about the target physical properties like size, shape, rotation, near-surface bulk density and roughness and internal density distribution. The Medicina 32m antenna had been successfully used for the first time as the receiving part of a bistatic configuration during a test experiment (September 2001) held to check the capabilities of the entire data acquisition system. This test was possible thanks to the collaboration undertaken with the Evpatoria radar station, and consisted in the observation of the ETALON-1 low orbit satellite

Righini, S.↗

International Conference on Remote Sensing Applications for Archaeological Research and World Heritage Conservation

Contents include the following: Monitoring the Ancient Countryside: Remote Sensing and GIS at the Chora of Chersonesos (Crimea, Ukraine). Integration of Remote Sensing and GIS for Management Decision Support in the Pendjari Biosphere Reserve (Republic of Benin). Monitoring of deforestation invasion in natural reserves of northern Madagascar based on space imagery. Cartography of Kahuzi-Biega National Park. Cartography and Land Use Change of World Heritage Areas and the Benefits of Remote Sensing and GIS for Conservation. Assessing and Monitoring Vegetation in Nabq Protected Area, South Sinai, Egypt, using combine approach of Satellite Imagery and Land Surveys. Evaluation of forage resources in semi-arid savannah environments with satellite imagery: contribution to the management of a protected area (Nakuru National Park) in Kenya. SOGHA, the Surveillance of Gorilla Habitat in World Heritage sites using Space Technologies. Application of Remote Sensing to monitor the Mont-Saint-Michel Bay (France). Application of Remote Sensing & GIS for the Conservation of Natural and Cultural Heritage Sites of the Southern Province of Sri Lanka. Social and Environmental monitoring of a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve: Case Study over the Vosges du Nord and Pfalzerwald Parks using Corona and Spot Imagery. Satellite Remote Sensing as tool to Monitor Indian Reservation in the Brazilian Amazonia. Remote Sensing and GIS Technology for Monitoring UNESCO World Heritage Sites - A Pilot Project. Urban Green Spaces: Modern Heritage. Monitoring of the technical condition of the St. Sophia Cathedral and related monastic buildings in Kiev with Space Applications, geo-positioning systems and GIS tools. The Murghab delta palaeochannel Reconstruction on the Basis of Remote Sensing from Space. Acquisition, Registration and Application of IKONOS Space Imagery for the cultural World Heritage site at Mew, Turkmenistan. Remote Sensing and VR applications for the reconstruction of archaeological landscapes. Archaeology through Space: Experience in Indian Subcontinent. The creation of a GIS Archaeological Site Location Catalogue in Yucatan: A Tool to preserve its Cultural Heritage. Mapping the Ancient Anasazi Roads of Southeast Utah. Remote Sensing and GIS Technology for Identification of Conservation and Heritage sites in Urban Planning. Mapping Angkor: For a new appraisal of the Angkor region. Angkor and radar imaging: seeing a vast pre-industrial low-density, dispersed urban complex. Technical and methodological aspects of archaeological CRM integrating high resolution satellite imagery. The contribution of satellite imagery to archaeological survey: an example from western Syria. The use of satellite images, digital elevation models and ground truth for the monitoring of land degradation in the "Cinque Terre" National park. Remote Sensing and GIS Applications for Protection and Conservation of World Heritage Site on the coast - Case Study of Tamil Nadu Coast, India. Multispectral high resolution satellite imagery in combination with "traditional" remote sensing and ground survey methods to the study of archaeological landscapes. The case study of Tuscany. Use of Remotely-Sensed Imagery in Cultural Landscape. Characterisation at Fort Hood, Texas. Heritage Learning and Data Collection: Biodiversity & Heritage Conservation through Collaborative Monitoring & Research. A collaborative project by UNESCO's WHC (World Heritage Center) & The GLOBE Program (Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment). Practical Remote Sensing Activities in an Interdisciplinary Master-Level Space Course.

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Evaluation of Training Samples Manually Welded With the Universal Handtool in a Space Simulation Chamber

The international space welding experiment was designed to evaluate the universal handtool (UHT) functions as a welding, brazing, coating, and cutting tool for in-space operations. The UHT is an electron beam welding system developed by the Paton Welding Institute (PWI), Kiev, Ukraine, and operated a 8 kV with up to 1 kW of power. In preparation for conducting the space welding experiment, cosmonauts were trained to properly operate the UHT and correctly process samples. This Technical Memorandum presents the results of the destructive and nondestructive evaluation of the training samples made in Russia in 1998. It was concluded that acceptable welds can be made with the UHT despite the constraints imposed by a space suit. The lap joint fillet weld configuration was more suitable than the butt joint configuration for operators with limited welding experience. The tube braze joint configuration designed by the PWI was easily brazed in a repeatable manner.

Russell, C. K.↗

Radar observations and physical model of asteroid 6489 Golevka

We report 8510-MHz (3,5-cm) radar observations of the Earth crossing asteroid (ECA) 6489 Golevka (1991 JX) obtained between June 3 and June 15, 1995, at Goldstone, the Very Large Array and the Evpatoria (Ukraine) and Kashima (Japan) radio antennas.

Astroids orbits 6489 Golevka toutatis↗

Recent Developments in Space Debris Mitigation Policy and Practices

In recent years, emphasis has shifted from national efforts to control the space debris population to international ones. Here, too, great progress has been made, most notably by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) and the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) of the United Nations. Today, a firm international consensus is rapidly building on the principal space debris mitigation measures. The IADC is an association of the space agencies of ten countries (China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and the European Space Agency, representing 17 countries of which four (France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) are also full IADC members. At the 17th meeting of the IADC in October 1999, a new Action Item (AI 17.2) was adopted to develop a set of consensus space debris mitigation guidelines. The purpose of the activity was to identify the most valuable space debris mitigation measures and to reach an international agreement on common directives. The IADC Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines (www.iadc-online.org/index.cgi?item=docs_pub) were formally adopted in October 2002 during the Second World Space Congress in Houston, Texas. Two years later a companion document, entitled Support to the IADC Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines, was completed to provide background and clarification for the guidelines.

Johnson, Nicholas L.↗

Spacecraft Thermal Management

In the 21st century, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Russian Federal Space Agency, the National Space Agency of Ukraine, the China National Space Administration, and many other organizations representing spacefaring nations shall continue or newly implement robust space programs. Additionally, business corporations are pursuing commercialization of space for enabling space tourism and capital business ventures. Future space missions are likely to include orbiting satellites, orbiting platforms, space stations, interplanetary vehicles, planetary surface missions, and planetary research probes. Many of these missions will include humans to conduct research for scientific and terrestrial benefits and for space tourism, and this century will therefore establish a permanent human presence beyond Earth s confines. Other missions will not include humans, but will be autonomous (e.g., satellites, robotic exploration), and will also serve to support the goals of exploring space and providing benefits to Earth s populace. This section focuses on thermal management systems for human space exploration, although the guiding principles can be applied to unmanned space vehicles as well. All spacecraft require a thermal management system to maintain a tolerable thermal environment for the spacecraft crew and/or equipment. The requirements for human rating and the specified controlled temperature range (approximately 275 K - 310 K) for crewed spacecraft are unique, and key design criteria stem from overall vehicle and operational/programatic considerations. These criteria include high reliability, low mass, minimal power requirements, low development and operational costs, and high confidence for mission success and safety. This section describes the four major subsystems for crewed spacecraft thermal management systems, and design considerations for each. Additionally, some examples of specialized or advanced thermal system technologies are presented, which may be enabling to future space missions never before attempted like a crewed mission to Mars.

Hurlbert, Kathryn Miller↗

The Namibia Early Flood Warning System, A CEOS Pilot Project

Over the past year few years, an international collaboration has developed a pilot project under the auspices of Committee on Earth Observation Satellite (CEOS) Disasters team. The overall team consists of civilian satellite agencies. For this pilot effort, the development team consists of NASA, Canadian Space Agency, Univ. of Maryland, Univ. of Colorado, Univ. of Oklahoma, Ukraine Space Research Institute and Joint Research Center(JRC) for European Commission. This development team collaborates with regional , national and international agencies to deliver end-to-end disaster coverage. In particular, the team in collaborating on this effort with the Namibia Department of Hydrology to begin in Namibia . However, the ultimate goal is to expand the functionality to provide early warning over the South Africa region. The initial collaboration was initiated by United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs and CEOS Working Group for Information Systems and Services (WGISS). The initial driver was to demonstrate international interoperability using various space agency sensors and models along with regional in-situ ground sensors. In 2010, the team created a preliminary semi-manual system to demonstrate moving and combining key data streams and delivering the data to the Namibia Department of Hydrology during their flood season which typically is January through April. In this pilot, a variety of moderate resolution and high resolution satellite flood imagery was rapidly delivered and used in conjunction with flood predictive models in Namibia. This was collected in conjunction with ground measurements and was used to examine how to create a customized flood early warning system. During the first year, the team made use of SensorWeb technology to gather various sensor data which was used to monitor flood waves traveling down basins originating in Angola, but eventually flooding villages in Namibia. The team made use of standardized interfaces such as those articulated under the Open Cloud Consortium (OGC) Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) set of web services was good [1][2]. However, it was discovered that in order to make a system like this functional, there were many performance issues. Data sets were large and located in a variety of location behind firewalls and had to be accessed across open networks, so security was an issue. Furthermore, the network access acted as bottleneck to transfer map products to where they are needed. Finally, during disasters, many users and computer processes act in parallel and thus it was very easy to overload the single string of computers stitched together in a virtual system that was initially developed. To address some of these performance issues, the team partnered with the Open Cloud Consortium (OCC) who supplied a Computation Cloud located at the University of Illinois at Chicago and some manpower to administer this Cloud. The Flood SensorWeb [3] system was interfaced to the Cloud to provide a high performance user interface and product development engine. Figure 1 shows the functional diagram of the Flood SensorWeb. Figure 2 shows some of the functionality of the Computation Cloud that was integrated. A significant portion of the original system was ported to the Cloud and during the past year, technical issues were resolved which included web access to the Cloud, security over the open Internet, beginning experiments on how to handle surge capacity by using the virtual machines in the cloud in parallel, using tiling techniques to render large data sets as layers on map, interfaces to allow user to customize the data processing/product chain and other performance enhancing techniques. The conclusion reached from the effort and this presentation is that defining the interoperability standards in a small fraction of the work. For example, once open web service standards were defined, many users could not make use of the standards due to security restrictions. Furthermore, once an interoperable sysm is functional, then a surge of users can render a system unusable, especially in the disaster domain.

Mandl, Daniel↗

Winter Wheat Yield Assessment from Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 Data: Incorporating Surface Reflectance, Through Phenological Fitting, into Regression Yield Models

A combination of Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 offers a high frequency of observations (3–5 days) at moderate spatial resolution (10–30 m), which is essential for crop yield studies. Existing methods traditionally apply vegetation indices (VIs) that incorporate surface reflectances (SRs) in two or more spectral bands into a single variable, and rarely address the incorporation of SRs into empirical regression models of crop yield. In this work, we address these issues by normalizing satellite data (both VIs and SRs) derived from NASA’s Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 (HLS) product, through a phenological fitting. We apply a quadratic function to fit VIs or SRs against accumulated growing degree days (AGDDs), which affects the rate of crop development. The derived phenological metrics for VIs and SRs, namely peak, area under curve (AUC), and fitting coefficients from a quadratic function, were used to build empirical regression winter wheat models at a regional scale in Ukraine for three years, 2016–2018. The best results were achieved for the model with near infrared (NIR) and red spectral bands and derived AUC, constant, linear, and quadratic coefficients of the quadratic model. The best model yielded a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.201 t/ha (5.4%) and coefficient of determination R2 = 0.73 on cross-validation.

phenological fitting↗

The Arya Crop Yield Forecasting Algorithm: Application to the Main Wheat Exporting Countries

Wheat is the most important commodity traded in the international food market. Thus, accurate and timely information on wheat production can help mitigate food price fluctuations. Within the existing operational regional and global scale agricultural monitoring systems that provide information on global crop yield and area forecasts, there are still fundamental gaps: #1. Lack of quantitative Earth Observation (EO) derived crop information, #2. Lack of global but detailed (national or subnational level) and timely crop production forecasts and #3. Lack of information on forecast uncertainties. In this study we present the Agriculture Remotely-sensed Yield Algorithm (ARYA) an EO-based method, advancing the state of EO data application and usage (addressing gap #1) to forecast wheat yield. The algorithm is based on the evolution of the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) using MODIS data at 1km resolution and the Growing Degree Days (GDD) from reanalysis data. Additionally, we explore how Land Surface Temperature (LST) can be included into the model and whether this parameter adds any value to the model performance when combined with the optical information. ARYA is implemented at the national and subnational level to forecast winter wheat yield in the main wheat exporting countries of US, Russia, Ukraine, France, Germany, Australia and Argentina from 2001 to 2019 (covering over 70% of wheat exports globally) in a timely manner by providing daily forecasts (addressing gap #2). The results show that ARYA provides yield estimations with RMSE’s within 0.3 ± 0.1 t/ha at national level and 0.6 ± 0,1 t/ha at subnational level after Day Of the Year (DOY) 140 (mid May) in the Northern Hemisphere and DOY 280 (beginning of October) in the Southern Hemisphere. This means that ARYA can provide crop yield estimates of wheat yield with 5-15 % error at national and 7-20 % error at subnational level starting from 2 to 2.5 months prior to harvest.

Agriculture↗

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC/yr for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC/yr). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

land use and land cover change↗

FORECASTING WHEAT YIELD USING REMOTE SENSING: THE ARYA FORECASTING SYSTEM

In this study we present a model to forecast wheat yield based on the evolution of the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI)and the Growing Degree Days (GDD), presented in Franch et al. (2015), but adapted to Franch et al. (2019) model. Additionally, we explore how the Land Surface Temperature (LST) can be included into the model and if this parameter adds any value to the model when combined with the optical information. This study is applied toMODIS data at 1km resolution to monitor the national and state level yield of winter wheat in the United States and Ukraine from 2001 to 2019.

B. Franch↗

The Potential of Medical Drones: An Analysis of Current and Future Use Cases

Modern Application of Medical-Based Drone Delivery Drones have been used advantageously by militaries for nearly a century, but their uses in civilian life are still mostly cutting-edge, if not theoretical. After a decade of bold proclamations, Amazon’s “PrimeAir” drone delivery system is still in the stage of “preparing” for deliveries, while the public awaits for start ups like SkyDrop (formerly Flirtey) to follow through on impressive promises. Despite the well-publicized disappointment so far in commercial drone delivery, medical drone delivery has already proven itself practical and cheap in several countries, and it promises to expand in the coming years. Drones are uniquely suited to make valuable and urgent deliveries to remote areas, quickly transporting medical supplies where road transportation is prohibitively slow or not available at all. Drones have been used notably to deliver AEDs for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, frequently beating first-responders to the scene; to deliver blood when there is none on hand at hospitals; to deliver vaccines to an island nation with little transportation infrastructure; and to respond flexibly to medical emergencies in a war zone. Economics make the delivery of food and other cheap goods by drone unattractive in the near-term, but the value and time-sensitivity of medical deliveries mean that drones are already saving lives in healthcare. “We believe the value of new technology is most valuable where it is clearly needed...that’s why we wanted to focus on drones delivering medicine and not delivering pizzas, ”said one executive of a drone system manufacturer. The immediate prospects for the expansion of medical drone use are many; however, they do not exist without their own drawbacks and challenges. Most obvious is the limited range of current commercially-available drones, most of which are isolated to a perimeter of roughly 18 miles. Technological know-how presents another barrier to integration of medical drones on a larger scale. Reports from the United Nations frequently cite a“skill deficit”—a prohibitively low number of qualified drone operators in low-and moderate-income countries (LMICs). Another perhaps more discreet speed bump in global drone development and usage are the various regulations on drone usage. Drone technology has developed so quickly that many states, out of an excess of caution, have nearly snuffed out the fledgling industry with regulation. There also exist significant concerns over the security of private citizens, the efficacy of medical deliveries, and the costs of drone operation. It is these last three barriers which this study will seek to overcome. Put simply, the prospect for human development in LMICs from drone-based medical delivery is far too great to disregard. As of 2020, 3.4 billion people live in rural communities, containing fewer than 5,000 people/km^2. Often lacking infrastructure, these communities are largely isolated from their more populated, urban counterparts. In drones lies the potential to reshape the geographic and developmental distinctions that divide the global population. This development must, therefore, begin first and foremost with advancement in regional well-being and life expectancy. Life expectancy makes up a key facet of human development. The United Nations relies on it as a key indicator of a state’s health. Lars Kunze of the Dortmund University Department of Economic sex plains this as a matter of physical capital accumulation. The longer people live, the more they save as opposed to spend. The more they save, the more which eventually gets invested in themselves and the community as a whole. In providing medical products via drone, it is the intention of this study to enable communities with the means and incentives for long-run savings and investment for future economic development. Through a close analysis of Vanuatu, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Ukraine—four states where drones are currently used to deliver medical supplies—this study develops a framework that LMICs in general and Mexico and particular can adopt and to use medical drones in difficult-to-reach communities for the sake of long-run human developmental initiatives.

Ryan Teoh↗