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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

ACES Study of DAA-Mitigated UAS Operations SC-228 Requirements Sub Group

Realization of the expected proliferation of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) operations in the National Airspace System (NAS) depends on the development and validation of performance standards for UAS Detect and Avoid (DAA) Systems. The RTCA Special Committee 228 is charged with leading the development of draft Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) for UAS DAA Systems. NASA, as a participating member of RTCA SC-228 is committed to supporting the development and validation of draft requirements as well as the safety substantiation and end-to-end assessment of DAA system performance. A recent study conducted using NASA's ACES (Airspace Concept Evaluation System) simulation capability begins to address questions surrounding the development of draft MOPS for DAA systems by assessing DAA performance in a NAS-wide context. ACES analyses were conducted to determine the impact of varying elements of UAS pilot performance and uncertainty mitigations on DAA system performance. Simulations were conducted with recorded cooperative and non-cooperative VFR (Visual Flight Rules) traffic to accurately model UAS encounters with other NAS traffic (ATC (Air Traffic Control) being responsible for separation with other IFR (Instrument Flight Rules) aircraft) and with roughly 25, 000 simulated UAS operations The number of Loss of Well Clear (LoWC) events were recorded across the range of independent variables: pilot response time, horizontal LoWC prediction buffer and horizontal LoWC resolution buffer. The number of LoWC events was compared to the unmitigated case (without the benefit of a DAA system) to determine the resultant risk-ratio for each of 8 simulation conditions. The parameter trades presented by the resultant DAA system performance (risk ratio) will be used by SC 228 to inform decisions about future requirements development and validation efforts.

Detect-and-Avoid↗
NASA NTRS2019

UAS Service Supplier Specification

Within the Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) system, the UAS Service Supplier (USS) is a key component. The USS serves several functions. At a high level, those include the following: Bridging communication between UAS Operators and Flight Information Management System (FIMS) Supporting planning of UAS operations Assisting strategic deconfliction of the UTM airspace Providing information support to UAS Operators during operations Helping UAS Operators meet their formal requirements This document provides the minimum set of requirements for a USS. In order to be recognized as a USS within UTM, successful demonstration of satisfying the requirements described herein will be a prerequisite. To ensure various desired qualities (security, fairness, availability, efficiency, maintainability, etc.), this specification relies on references to existing public specifications whenever possible.

Rios, Joseph L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Informing New Concepts for UAS and Autonomous System Safety Management using Disaster Management and First Responder Scenarios

As emerging flight operations become more prevalent and increasingly automated and distributed, the capabilities for managing safety of vehicles and operations will also need to evolve. To address this challenge, the National Academies has envisioned an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) capability for a wide range of aviation operations including current commercial operations as well as new entrants envisioned with advanced air mobility (AAM). The suite of IASMS services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) would be implemented in a federated approach and would address trends as well as individual operations. Through predictive modeling and data analysis, IASMS is envisioned to identify arising risks so that they can be mitigated, in-time, before a safety incident occurs. IASMS and its requisite set of SFCs must leverage a wide range of information to perform. To better understand these new needs, FSF worked with the aviation and humanitarian communities to develop and validate scenarios that include traditional aviation operations and UAS operations intermingled as they are deployed for disaster management and first responder (DMFR) situations. The three scenarios developed include: • Post Natural disaster response, such as a hurricane, involving multiple parties utilizing traditional aviation and UAS to support rescue operations, surveil damage, and locate survivors needing assistance. • Wildfire fighting in remote locations with traditional aircraft for transport and fire-retardant delivery combined with UAS for surveillance of fire locations as well as to track individual firefighter locations. • Medical Operations and AAM in Urban Environments including passenger-carrying helicopters and AAM vehicles, medical missions (such as transport of radio-pharmaceuticals), and other UAS delivery operations (such as the delivery of defibrillators). Each scenario was developed and validated by representatives with expertise in humanitarian operations, urban and rural emergency response, air traffic management, UAS operations, and traditional flight operations. The scenario definitions address roles and responsibilities of individual actors, the appropriate utilization of UAS, and the actions taken by those actors to appropriately manage risks associated with the mission and environment. The risks to aviation traffic and to people on the ground explored included potential risks arising from incompatibilities in calculating reference altitudes (eg, differing uses of AGL, MSL, barometric, or GPS-derived values), loss of command and control (C2) communications, rapid changes in weather and winds, and physical interference. For each risk, IASMS SFCs were postulated in the context of monitoring services, risk assessment capabilities, and identifying appropriate mitigation strategies. The identified SFC capabilities were envisioned from known services postulated for IASMS and for UTM. For these unique environments, IASMS SFCs are needed to address conditions such as hazardous payloads, micro-climates and urban canyons, and the need to keep uninvolved air traffic out of the area where DMFR operations are being conducted. The second phase of analysis focused on inferring the specific information needs and the SFCs for IASMS, utilizing a structure of 16 information classes to organize requirements. For each of the risks identified in the workshops, it was postulated what data sources would be necessary to monitor critical aspects of the risk (eg, surrounding air traffic, ground population, terrain, etc). to be directly measured as well as data that would be derived, which implies additional SFCs for different actors to understand what information would likely be exchanged between parties. For an IASMS to be effective, additional research is needed to develop the advanced algorithms that can address the increasingly autonomous and complex operations in differing environments and to develop means of identifying unknown risks. Looking at these scenarios highlighted a number of research issues. These include the ability to quickly "cordon off" airspace thru temporary flight restrictions (TFRs) or other means, developing clear definitions to enable automation-based algorithms for prioritizing operations, defining airspace density metrics, standardization of altitude reporting, and establishing a basis for safety data metrics definition and collection. This paper seeks to outline the development of an IASMS in the context of the DMFR scenarios and resulting demonstrations. Utilizing this contextual approach, NASA will generate recommendations for an assured safety framework for AAM operations that enables AAM operations to safely access the NAS.

In Time Aviation Safety Management System↗
NASA NTRS2024

SupportU: Smart UAS Program for the Population by Offering Resources and Tools to the Unhoused

Global warming, challenging economic conditions, the opioid epidemic, and other widespread problems, have impacted people globally, particularly over the past several years. Preventable diseases like the common cold and the effects of heat stroke have become increasingly prevalent due to these issues. It is estimated that 150 million people of the world’s population are unhoused globally, with many dwelling in unsafe and unsanitary conditions while lacking access to basic hygienic items and other essentials. Unsanitary conditions coupled with this lack of access exacerbates and prolongs health problems and harms quality of life. Traditional methods of aid, such as homeless shelters and meal programs, face numerous challenges such as having limited reach and resources. To address these problems, the Smart UAS Program for the Population by Offering Resources and Tools to the Unhoused (SUPPORT U) utilizes Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (UAS) to deliver resources to the unhoused and those in need of basic aid, prior to and during extreme temperature conditions, and after natural disasters in rural, suburban, and urban areas. The UA is envisioned to be an autonomous aircraft capable of efficiently distributing essential supplies, including blankets, water, food, and medicine. The UAS fleet relies on advanced navigation and communication technologies to accurately identify unhoused people and efficiently and safely distribute materials to them. This will be done through a machine learning algorithm. By focusing on identified “homeless clusters”, places where unhoused individuals are concentrated, the UAS network increases access to critical resources, thereby helping to mitigate some of the external risks to the health of unhoused individuals. The UA can also be used during crises, such as by transporting supplies to medical tents that are stationed in difficult-to-reach areas suffering from natural disasters.

Samuel Beard↗
NASA NTRS2014

Investigating the Impacts of a Separation Standard for UAS Operations in Enroute and Transition Airspace

Unmanned aircraft systems will be required to equip with a detect and avoid system in order to satisfy the federal aviation regulations to remain well clear of other aircraft. To comply with regulations in today’s operations manned aircraft must “see and avoid” other aircraft and use subjective judgment to determine whether those aircraft are well clear. For a detect-and- avoid (DAA) system to satisfy the requirement to stay well clear, a quantitative definition of well clear needs to be defined and evaluated. Definitions for the boundary of well clear have been proposed by the Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Executive Committee Science and Research Panel (SaRP) and the Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics (RTCA) Special Committee 228 on Detect and Avoid Systems. This study investigates the interoperability implications of UAS using proposed well clear definitions as a separation standard for conducting operations in the national airspace system. The first analysis in the study focuses on the effect of variations in well clear definition parameters on the rate of losses of well clear per flight hour. The second analysis considers three well clear definitions and presents the relative state conditions of intruder aircraft as they encroach upon the well clear boundary. The third analysis focuses on the definition of the alerting criteria needed to inform the UAS operator of a potential loss of well clear. All three analyses are conducted in a NAS-wide fast-time simulation environment using UAS aircraft models, proposed UAS missions, and historical air defense radar data to populate the background traffic operating under visual flight rules. The results from the three analyses presented in this study inform the safety case, requirements development, and the operational environment for the DAA minimum operational performance standards.

UAS Seperation Standard↗
NASA NTRS2016

UAS-NAS Project Demo - Mini HITL Week 2 Stats

The UAS-NAS Project demo will showcase recent research efforts to ensure the interoperability between proposed UAS detect and avoid (DAA) human machine interface requirements (developed within RTCA SC-228) and existing collision avoidance displays. Attendees will be able to view the current state of the art of the DAA pilot traffic, alerting and guidance displays integrated with Traffic advisory and Collision Avoidance (TCAS) II in the UAS-NAS Project's research UAS ground control station (developed in partnership with the Air Force Research Laboratory). In addition, attendees will have the opportunity to interact with the research UAS ground control station and "fly" encounters, using the DAA and TCAS II displays to avoid simulated aircraft. The display of the advisories will be hosted on a laptop with an external 30" monitor, running the Vigilant Spirit system. DAA advisories will be generated by the JADEM software tool, connected to the system via the LVC Gateway. A repeater of the primary flight display will be shown on a 55" monitor mounted on a stand at the back of the booth to show the pilot interaction to the passersby.

UAS↗
NASA NTRS2015

Argument-Based Airworthiness Assurance of Small UAS

Presently, there are three avenues by which Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) operations are authorized in the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS): obtaining either (i) a certificate of authorization (COA), or (ii) a special airworthiness certificate (SAC) in either the experimental, or the restricted category, or (iii) an exemption from an airworthiness certificate together with a civil COA. The first is meant primarily for public entities, such as NASA; the remaining two are the only available means for civil UAS operations. Recently, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has also proposed a regulatory framework targeted for certain small UAS, specifically those weighing 55 pounds or less, although final rulemaking remains pending. We have previously shown how an assurance case can aggregate heterogeneous reasoning and safety evidence, with application to UAS safety. In this paper, we describe how assurance cases can serve as a common framework to justify overall system safety, unifying both operational aspects and airworthiness, in particular system design assurance. We also show how this approach can coexist with, and augment, existing safety analysis processes and best-practices, by transforming the artifacts they produce into structured assurance arguments. To illustrate the applicability and utility of our approach, we have been applying it for the design assurance of an unmanned rotorcraft system, intended for precision agriculture operations, as part of the NASA Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Integration in the National Airspace System (NAS) project.

Rotocraft↗
NASA NTRS2016

AIAA Aviation UAS DAA Demonstration-Mini HITL Week 2 Stats

The UAS-NAS Project demo will showcase recent research efforts to ensure the interoperability between proposed UAS detect and avoid (DAA) human machine interface requirements (developed within RTCA SC-228) and existing collision avoidance displays. Attendees will be able to view the current state of the art of the DAA pilot traffic, alerting and guidance displays integrated with Traffic advisory and Collision Avoidance (TCAS) II in the UAS-NAS Project's research UAS ground control station (developed in partnership with the Air Force Research Laboratory). In addition, attendees will have the opportunity to interact with the research UAS ground control station and "fly" encounters, using the DAA and TCAS II displays to avoid simulated aircraft. The display of the advisories will be hosted on a laptop with an external 30" monitor, running the Vigilant Spririt system. DAA advisories will be generated by the JADEM software tool, connected to the system via the LVC Gateway. A repeater of the primary flight display will be shown on a 55" tv/monitor mounted on a stand at the back of the booth to show the pilot interaction to the passersby.

UAS↗
NASA NTRS2016

UAS Integration in the NAS Project: Flight Test 3 Data Analysis of JADEM-Autoresolver Detect and Avoid System

The Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integration in the National Airspace System project, or UAS Integration in the NAS, aims to reduce technical barriers related to safety and operational challenges associated with enabling routine UAS access to the NAS. The UAS Integration in the NAS Project conducted a flight test activity, referred to as Flight Test 3 (FT3), involving several Detect-and-Avoid (DAA) research prototype systems between June 15, 2015 and August 12, 2015 at the Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC). This report documents the flight testing and analysis results for the NASA Ames-developed JADEM-Autoresolver DAA system, referred to as 'Autoresolver' herein. Four flight test days (June 17, 18, 22, and July 22) were dedicated to Autoresolver testing. The objectives of this test were as follows: 1. Validate CPA prediction accuracy and detect-and-avoid (DAA, formerly known as self-separation) alerting logic in realistic flight conditions. 2. Validate DAA trajectory model including maneuvers. 3. Evaluate TCAS/DAA interoperability. 4. Inform final Minimum Operating Performance Standards (MOPS). Flight test scenarios were designed to collect data to directly address the objectives 1-3. Objective 4, inform final MOPS, was a general objective applicable to the UAS in the NAS project as a whole, of which flight test is a subset. This report presents analysis results completed in support of the UAS in the NAS project FT3 data review conducted on October 20, 2015. Due to time constraints and, to a lesser extent, TCAS data collection issues, objective 3 was not evaluated in this analysis.

flight test↗
NASA NTRS2016

Unmanned Aerial Systems Traffic Management (UTM): Safely Enabling UAS Operations in Low-Altitude Airspace

Currently, there is no established infrastructure to enable and safely manage the widespread use of low-altitude airspace and UAS flight operations. Given this, and understanding that the FAA faces a mandate to modernize the present air traffic management system through computer automation and significantly reduce the number of air traffic controllers by FY 2020, the FAA maintains that a comprehensive, yet fully automated UAS traffic management (UTM) system for low-altitude airspace is needed. The concept of UTM is to begin by leveraging concepts from the system of roads, lanes, stop signs, rules and lights that govern vehicles on the ground today. Building on its legacy of work in air traffic management (ATM), NASA is working with industry to develop prototype technologies for a UAS Traffic Management (UTM) system that would evolve airspace integration procedures for enabling safe, efficient low-altitude flight operations that autonomously manage UAS operating in an approved low-altitude airspace environment. UTM is a cloud-based system that will autonomously manage all traffic at low altitudes to include UASs being operated beyond visual line of sight of an operator. UTM would thus enable safe and efficient flight operations by providing fully integrated traffic management services such as airspace design, corridors, dynamic geofencing, severe weather and wind avoidance, congestion management, terrain avoidance, route planning re-routing, separation management, sequencing spacing, and contingency management. UTM removes the need for human operators to continuously monitor aircraft operating in approved areas. NASA envisions concepts for two types of UTM systems. The first would be a small portable system, which could be moved between geographical areas in support of operations such as precision agriculture and public safety. The second would be a Persistent system, which would support low-altitude operations in an approved area by providing continuous automated coverage. Both would require persistent communication, navigation, and surveillance (CNS) coverage to track, ensure, and monitor conformance. UTM is creating an airspace management tool that allows the ATM system to accommodate the number of UAS that will operate in the low altitude airspace. The analogy is just because we have a car, whether its autonomous or someone is driving, does not diminish the need for a road or road signs or rules of the road.

traffic management↗
NASA NTRS2018

Playbook for UAS: UX of Goal-Oriented Planning & Execution

We are evaluating Playbook for CASAS (Connected Autonomous Smart Aerospace Systems), a tool designed to aid first responders in disaster relief efforts. We are adapting an existing tool, Playbook, to support a future unmanned aircraft system (UAS) swarm demonstration. Playbook for CASAS will be used to plan, edit, and monitor simulated UAS swarms, and we are interested in evaluating the user experience of this prototype as well as developing recommendations for future UAS interfaces. Allocation of roles and responsibilities between human-automation systems is key to promoting productive cooperation between users and automation. Future interfaces, however, must allow for adaptive management of the swarm not a constant split in human-automation control. Our early research indicates that when a single pilot is controlling swarms of robotic agents, such as UAS or ground rovers, operators require a higher level, goal-based interface with usability at its core. Along with that high-level control, users can leverage sensors within the swarm to be notified when lower level actions must be taken by the pilot. First responders working in disaster relief efforts require a high level of situational awareness (SA) and precise control at key moments within a mission. This balance in operator workload paired with SA can lead to improved safety and mission outcomes. Our research below outlines leverage points as well as the balance between human involvement and autonomy in UAS interfaces.

UAS↗
NASA NTRS2018

UTM UAS Serivce Supplier Development: Sprint 1 Toward Technical Capability Level 4

NASA's UAS Traffic Management (UTM) Project has been tasked with developing concepts and initial implementations for integrating and managing small unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) into the low altitude airspace. To accomplish this task, the Project planned a phased approach based on four Technical Capability Levels (TCLs). As of this writing, TCL4 is currently in development for a late Spring 2019 flight demonstration. This TCL is focused on operations in an urban environment and includes the handling of high density and large-scale off-nominal conditions, vehicle-to-vehicle communications, detect-and-avoid technologies, communication requirements, public safety operations, airspace restrictions, and other related goals. Through research and testing to date, NASA has developed an architecture for UTM that depends on commercial entities collaboratively providing services that are traditionally provided by the Air Navigation Service Provider(ANSP) in manned aviation. A key component of this architecture is the UAS Service Supplier (USS), which acts as a communications bridge between UAS operators and the ANSP when necessary. In addition, the collection of USSs form a USS Network to collaboratively manage the airspace through the sharing of data and the adherence to a standard or set of standards required to participate in this USS Network. This document provides a record of the first step in the development of interoperable USSs that will ultimately support TCL4 flight testing and formalization of the overall UTM concept. To develop these USSs and the underlying specifications for them, NASA has planned a series of "Sprints" to work with industry partners in implementing the features and proposed specifications for USSs to participate in TCL4. This report describes Sprint One. In this Sprint, the focus was on establishing a baseline for the Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) and their associated data models. In addition, the concept of UAS Volume Reservations (UVR) (areas that impose restrictions on sUAS that are allowed to operate) was tested. NASA provided the specifications and iterated on them with partners while implementers developed to those specifications. NASA then tested each partner's implementation to ensure compatibility with all other implementers. This process helped all stakeholders gain confidence that the foundation for future Sprints was solid.

UAS service supplier↗
NASA NTRS2015

Characteristics of a Well Clear Definition and Alerting Criteria for Encounters Between UAS and Manned Aircraft in Class E Airspace

Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) will be required to equip with a detect-and-avoid (DAA) system in order to satisfy the federal aviation regulations to remain well clear of other aircraft. For a DAA system to satisfy the requirement to stay well clear of other airborne traffic, a quantitative definition of well clear needs to be defined and evaluated. This study investigates the implications of UAS using proposed well clear definitions as a separation standard for conducting operations in the National Airspace System (NAS). The first analysis considers three well clear definitions and presents the relative state conditions of intruder aircraft as they encroach upon the well clear boundary. The second analysis focuses on the definition of the alerting criteria needed to inform the UAS operator of a potential loss of well clear. All analyses are conducted in a NAS-wide fast-time simulation environment using UAS aircraft models, proposed UAS missions, and historical air defense radar data to populate the background traffic operating under visual flight rules. The results presented in this study inform the safety case, requirements development, and the operational environment for DAA minimum operational performance standards.

Safety↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evaluating Performance of UAS Detect-And-Avoid System Using a Fast-Time Simulation Tool

Most unmanned aircraft systems will be required to be equipped with a Detect-and-Avoid (DAA) system. The surveillance performance of the DAA system to detect and track intruder aircraft will depend on the encounter geometries that unmanned aircraft are expected to have with other aircraft in the airspace. The performance of DAA alerting and avoidance system is also dependent on the timeliness of alerting for UAS pilots to give a sufficient time to determine and command a resolution maneuver to avoid well clear separation violations. This presentation introduces general background of UAS DAA systems and concept of well clear separation standard to satisfy see and avoid regulations. The presentation shows the several UAS mission profiles and analysis of the encounter geometries that were simulated using historical VFR traffic data and some proposed UAS missions. This presentation introduces several potential metrics for evaluating the performance of a DAA system and shows the results that measured through fast-time simulation with traffic scenarios that include NAS-wide VFR manned aircraft and IFR UAS flights. At the end, some research areas will be briefly discussed.

UAS↗
NASA NTRS2010

Supporting the Use of Unmanned Aircraft Systems(UAS) for Global Science Observations in Civil and Segregated Airspace

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) are growing more popular within the earth science community as a way to augment measurements currently made with manned aircraft. UAS arc uniquely suited for applications that require long dwell times and/or in locations that are generally too dangerous for manned aircraft. Environmental monitoring in areas like the Arctic or obtaining data within a hurricane are just a couple of examples of many applications to which UAS are ideally suited. However, UAS are not without their challenges. Most unmanned aircraft are unable to meet current airspace regulations that are in place for manned aircraft, and specific airspace standards and regulations for unmanned aircraft do not exist. As a result, gaining access to civil airspace for flights is very difficult around the world. Under Term of Reference 48 within the ISPRS Commission 1, WGI/I: Standardization of Aircraft Interfaces, efforts have been made to understand and quantify the current state of UAS airspace access on a global scale. The results of these efforts will be presented along with examples of successful science missions that have been conducted internationally during the past year.

Mulac, B. L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Spectrum for UAS Control and Non-Payload Communications

There is an increasing need to fly UAS in the NAS to perform missions of vital importance to National Security and Defense, Emergency Management, and Science as well as commercial applications (e.g. cargo transport). To enable integration of UAS into the National Airspace System, several critical technical barriers must be eliminated, including: Separation Assurance/Sense and Avoid - the uncertainty surrounding the ability to interoperate in ATC environments and maintain safe separation from other aircraft in the absence of an on-board pilot. Human Systems Integration - lack of standards and guidelines with respect to UAS display information as well as lack of Ground Control Station (GCS) design requirements to operate in the NAS. Certification - lack of airworthiness requirements and safety-related data specific to the full range of UAS, or for their avionics systems or other components. Communications - lack of standard, certifiable data links and aviation safety spectrum to operate such links for civil UAS control communications.

Kerczewski, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Analysis of UAS DAA Alerting in Fast-Time Simulations without DAA Mitigation

Realization of the expected proliferation of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) operations in the National Airspace System (NAS) depends on the development and validation of performance standards for UAS Detect and Avoid (DAA) Systems. The RTCA Special Committee 228 is charged with leading the development of draft Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) for UAS DAA Systems. NASA, as a participating member of RTCA SC-228 is committed to supporting the development and validation of draft requirements for DAA alerting system performance. A recent study conducted using NASA's ACES (Airspace Concept Evaluation System) simulation capability begins to address questions surrounding the development of draft MOPS for DAA alerting systems. ACES simulations were conducted to study the performance of alerting systems proposed by the SC-228 DAA Alerting sub-group. Analysis included but was not limited to: 1) correct alert (and timeliness), 2) false alert (and severity and duration), 3) missed alert, and 4) probability of an alert type at the time of loss of well clear. The performance of DAA alerting systems when using intent vs. dead-reckoning for UAS ownship trajectories was also compared. The results will be used by SC-228 to inform decisions about the surveillance standards of UAS DAA systems and future requirements development and validation efforts.

alerting↗
NASA NTRS2016

Crowd Sourcing Approach for UAS Communication Resource Demand Forecasting

Congressional attention to Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) has caused the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to move the National Airspace System (NAS) Integration project forward, but using guidelines, practices and procedures that are yet to be fully integrated with the FAA Aviation Management System. The real drive for change in the NAS will to come from both UAS operators and the government jointly seeing an accurate forecast of UAS usage demand data. This solid forecast information would truly get the attention of planners. This requires not an aggregate demand, but rather a picture of how the demand is spread across small to large UAS, how it is spread across a wide range of missions, how it is expected over time and where, in terms of geospatial locations, will the demand appear. In 2012 the Volpe Center performed a study of the overall future demand for UAS. This was done by aggregate classes of aircraft types. However, the realistic expected demand will appear in clusters of aircraft activities grouped by similar missions on a smaller geographical footprint and then growing from those small cells. In general, there is not a demand forecast that is tightly coupled to the real purpose of the mission requirements (e.g. in terms of real locations and physical structures such as wind mills to inspect, farms to survey, pipelines to patrol, etc.). Being able to present a solid basis for the demand is crucial to getting the attention of investment, government and other fiscal planners. To this end, Mosaic ATM under NASA guidance is developing a crowd sourced, demand forecast engine that can draw forecast details from commercial and government users and vendors. These forecasts will be vetted by a governance panel and then provide for a sharable accurate set of projection data. Our paper describes the project and the technical approach we are using to design and create access for users to the forecast system.

air traffic↗