Trends and Interannual Variability of the Tropical Width Inferred from GPS Radio Occultations
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Ao, Chi O.↗
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Quantifying the processes controlling intraseasonal mixed‐layer temperature variability in the tropical I ndian O cean
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D. J. Halkides↗
Statistical Aspects of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones: Trends, Natural Variability, and Global Warming
Statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945- 2005 are examined, including the variation of the yearly frequency of occurrence for various subgroups of storms (all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, major hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes, and category 4/5 hurricanes); the yearly variation of the mean latitude and longitude (genesis location) of all tropical cyclones and hurricanes; and the yearly variation of the mean peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and durations for all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Also examined is the relationship between inferred trends found in the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity and natural variability and global warming, the latter described using surface air temperatures from the Armagh Observatory Armagh, Northern Ireland. Lastly, a simple statistical technique is employed to ascertain the expected level of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity for the upcoming 2007 season.
Wilson, Robert M.↗
Sea level variability in the eastern tropical Pacific as observed by TOPEX and Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean Experiment
Sea surface height measurements from the TOPEX altimeter and dynamic height from Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean (TOGA TAO) moorings are used to explore sea level variability in the northeastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Afetr the annual harmonic is removed, there are two distinct bands of variability: one band is centered at 5 deg N to 7 deg N and extends from 165 deg W to 110 deg W, and the other band is centered at 10 deg N to 12 deg N and extends from 120 deg W to the coast of Central America. The correspondence between the two independent observation data sets at 5 deg N is excellent with correlations of about 90%. The variability at 5 deg-7 deg N is identified as instability waves formed just south of the North Equatorial Countercurrent during the months of July and March. Wave amplitudes are largest in the range of longitudes 160 deg-140 deg W, where they can exceed 10 cm. The waves disappear when the equatorial current system weakens, during the months of March and May. The variability at 11 deg N in 1993 has the form of anticyclone eddies. These eddies propagate westward at a speed of about 17 cm/s, consistent with the dispersion characteristics of free Rossby waves. The eddies are shown to have their origin near the coast of central America during northern fall and winter. Their formation seems to result from intense wind bursts across the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo which generate strong anticyclonic ocean eddies. The disappearance of the eddies in the summer of 1993 coincidences with the seasonal intensification of equatorial currents. Thus the variability at 11 deg N has very little overlap in time with the variability at 5 deg N.
Giese, Benjamin S.↗
An Assessment of Multimodel Simulations for the Variability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones and Its Association with ENSO
An assessment of simulations of the interannual variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and its association with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as a subsequent diagnosis for possible causes of model biases generated from simulated large-scale climate conditions, are documented in the paper. The model experiments are carried out by the Hurricane Work Group under the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Research Program (CLIVAR) using five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members forced by the observed sea surface temperature and spanning the 28-yr period from 1982 to 2009. The results show GISS and GFDL model ensemble means best simulate the interannual variability of TCs, and the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) follows. Also, the MME has the closest climate mean annual number of WNP TCs and the smallest root-mean-square error to the observation. Most GCMs can simulate the interannual variability of WNP TCs well, with stronger TC activities during two types of El Niño-namely, eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño-and weaker activity during La Niña. However, none of the models capture the differences in TC activity between EP and CP El Niño as are shown in observations. The inability of models to distinguish the differences in TC activities between the two types of El Niño events may be due to the bias of the models in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Niño.
climate models↗
Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Balance Variability: Linking Weather to Climate Scales
Radiative and turbulent surface exchanges of heat and moisture across the atmosphere-ocean interface are fundamental components of the Earth s energy and water balance. Characterizing the spatiotemporal variability of these exchanges of heat and moisture is critical to understanding the global water and energy cycle variations, quantifying atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and improving model predictability. These fluxes are integral components to tropical ocean-atmosphere variability; they can drive ocean mixed layer variations and modify the atmospheric boundary layer properties including moist static stability, thereby influencing larger-scale tropical dynamics. Non-parametric cluster-based classification of atmospheric and ocean surface properties has shown an ability to identify coherent weather regimes, each typically associated with similar properties and processes. Using satellite-based observational radiative and turbulent energy flux products, this study investigates the relationship between these weather states and surface energy processes within the context of tropical climate variability. Investigations of surface energy variations accompanying intraseasonal and interannual tropical variability often use composite-based analyses of the mean quantities of interest. Here, a similar compositing technique is employed, but the focus is on the distribution of the heat and moisture fluxes within their weather regimes. Are the observed changes in surface energy components dominated by changes in the frequency of the weather regimes or through changes in the associated fluxes within those regimes? It is this question that the presented work intends to address. The distribution of the surface heat and moisture fluxes is evaluated for both normal and non-normal states. By examining both phases of the climatic oscillations, the symmetry of energy and water cycle responses are considered.
Roberts, J. Brent↗
Equatorial Origin of the Observed Tropical Pacific Quasi-Decadal Variability From ENSO Nonlinearity
Quasi-decadal (QD) climate variability is detected in the tropical Pacific based on the recent 70 years of observations. This QD variability is identified in equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the pattern of which resembles the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but extends further meridionally to the northeastern subtropical Pacific. Whereas equatorial upper-ocean heat content and SSTs are in quadrature for ENSO, these two quantities are almost in phase on the QD timescale. Further analysis shows that nonlinear dynamical heating, primarily originating from strong El Niño events, tends to lead QD SSTs by a quarter of its dominant period (approximately 30 months) and shapes the dominant QD periodicity in observations. Here, our results suggest that the observed QD variability largely originates from ENSO nonlinearity and thus is fundamentally different from ENSO's oscillatory nature.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Contributions of TRMM to Our Understanding of Precipitation Processes and Climate Variability
The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a joint U.S./Japan effort, has completed seven and a half years in orbit. This successful research mission studying precipitation processes and climatology has also become a key element in the routine monitoring of global precipitation. The package of rain measuring instrumentation, including the first rain radar and microwave radiometer combination in space, continues to function perfectly, and the satellite has the capability to operate for a number of additional years, providing a unique, long-term record of global tropical precipitation characteristics. A summary of research highlights will be presented covering topics ranging over climate analysis, improving forecasts, and storm and precipitation processes. A focus of the talk will be the important role of TRMM data in multi-satellite precipitation analyses at fine time scales and in improving our understanding of the validity of climate-scale variations through comparison with, and eventual improvement of, the GEWEX Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 25-year data set.
Adler, Robert F.↗
Recent Climate and Ice-Sheet Changes in West Antarctica Compared with the Past 2,000 Years
Changes in atmospheric circulation over the past five decades have enhanced the wind-driven inflow of warm ocean water onto the Antarctic continental shelf, where it melts ice shelves from below1-3. Atmospheric circulation changes have also caused rapid warming4 over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and contributed to declining sea-ice cover in the adjacent Amundsen-Bellingshausen seas5. It is unknown whether these changes are part of a longer-term trend. Here, we use waterisotope (Delta O-18) data from an array of ice-core records to place recent West Antarctic climate changes in the context of the past two millennia. We find that the δ18O of West Antarctic precipitation has increased significantly in the past 50 years, in parallel with the trend in temperature, and was probably more elevated during the 1990s than at any other time during the past 200 years. However, Delta O-18 anomalies comparable to those of recent decades occur about 1% of the time over the past 2,000 years. General circulation model simulations suggest that recent trends in Delta O-18 and climate in West Antarctica cannot be distinguished from decadal variability that originates in the tropics. We conclude that the uncertain trajectory of tropical climate variability represents a significant source of uncertainty in projections of West Antarctic climate and ice-sheet change.
Ice-sheet↗
Observation of 3-6 day meridional wind oscillations over the tropical Pacific, 1973-1992: Vertical structure and interannual variability
Rawinsonde data from tropical Pacific stations were examined for westward-propagating 3-6-day meridional wind oscillations in the troposphere and lower stratosphere, 1973-1992. Four types were identified from cross-spectrum and principal component analysis. (1) The dominant oscillation, near 250 mb, had a period slightly greater than 5 days, zonal wavenumber 4-6, and modified Rossby-gravity structure near the date line. (2) In the western Pacific lower troposphere there was broadband activity with short zonal scale, coupled to upper-tropospheric waves in NH summer. (3) In the central Pacific, during NH autumn, there was a well-defined approximately 4 1/2-day oscillation with maximum amplitude in the lower troposphere and baroclinic phase tilt above. The vertical structure suggested coupling to deep tropical convection; this interpretation was supported by correlation of meridional wind with antisymmetric outgoing longwave radiation. (4) In the stratosphere, Rossby-gravity waves had periods less than or equal to 4 days and zonal wavenumber 3-4. Unlike tropospheric waves, these disturbances were coherent in a shallow layer, largest in west phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and annual cycle (NH winter-spring).
Dunkerton, Timothy J.↗
Experimental protocol for phase 1 of the APARC QUOCA (QUasibiennial oscillation and Ozone Chemistry interactions in the Atmosphere) working group
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the main mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere, influencing the predictability of other regions in the atmosphere through its teleconnections to the stratospheric polar vortices and coupling to surface tropical and extratropical variability. However, climate and forecasting models consistently underestimate QBO amplitudes in the lower stratosphere, likely contributing to their failure to simulate these teleconnections. One underexplored contributor to model biases is missing representation of ozone-radiative feedbacks, which enhance temperature variability in the lower stratosphere, particularly at periods at and greater than the QBO (>28 months). While previous studies suggest that ozone-radiative feedbacks can impact QBO periods, amplitudes and the associated secondary circulation in the lower stratosphere, the reported impacts differ widely among models and are hard to interpret due to differences in methodology. To this end, here we propose a coordinated experimental protocol – held joint between the Atmospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (APARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Initiative (QBOi) and Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI) activities – which is aimed at assessing the coupling between stratospheric ozone, temperature and the circulation. We use the proposed experiments to define the ozone feedback on the QBO in both present-day and idealized (abrupt quadrupling of carbon dioxide) climates. While primary focus is on the QBO, the proposed protocol also enables analysis of other aspects of ozone-radiative-dynamical coupling in the atmosphere, including impacts on the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and tropospheric eddy-driven jet responses to future climate change. Here we document the scientific rationale and design of the QUOCA Phase 1 experiments, summarize the data request, and give a brief overview of participating models. Preliminary results using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies E2-2 climate model are used to illustrate sensitivities to certain methodological choices.
Environmental sciences↗
The Role of Coupled Feedbacks in the Decadal Variability of the Southern Hemisphere Eddy-Driven Jet
The Southern Hemisphere summertime eddy-driven jet and storm tracks have shifted poleward over the recent few decades. In previous studies, explanations have mainly stressed the influence of external forcing in driving this trend. Here we examine the role of internal tropical SST variability in controlling the austral summer jet’s poleward migration, with a focus on interdecadal time scales. The role of external forcing and internal variability are isolated by using a hierarchy of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, including the pre-industrial control, large ensemble, and pacemaker runs. Model simulations suggest that in the early twenty-first century, both external forcing and internal tropical Pacific SST variability are important in driving a positive southern annular mode (SAM) phase and a poleward migration of the eddy-driven jet. Additionally, Tropical Pacific SST variability, associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), acts to shift the jet poleward over the southern Indian and southwestern Pacific Oceans and intensify the jet in the southeastern Pacific basin, while external forcing drives a significant poleward jet shift in the South Atlantic basin. In response to both external forcing and decadal Pacific SST variability, the transient eddy momentum flux convergence belt in the middle latitudes experiences a poleward migration due to the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, leading to a zonally symmetric southward migration of the eddy-driven jet. This mechanism distinguishes the influence of the IPO on the midlatitude circulation from the dynamical impact of ENSO, with the latter mainly promoting the subtropical wave-breaking critical latitude poleward and pushing the midlatitude jet to higher latitudes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Tropical cloud feedbacks and natural variability of climate
Simulations of natural variability by two general circulation models (GCMs) are examined. One GCM is a sector model, allowing relatively rapid integration without simplification of the model physics, which would potentially exclude mechanisms of variability. Two mechanisms are found in which tropical surface temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) vary on interannual and longer timescales. Both are related to changes in cloud cover that modulate SST through the surface radiative flux. Over the equatorial ocean, SST and surface temperature vary on an interannual timescale, which is determined by the magnitude of the associated cloud cover anomalies. Over the subtropical ocean, variations in low cloud cover drive SST variations. In the sector model, the variability has no preferred timescale, but instead is characterized by a 'red' spectrum with increasing power at longer periods. In the terrestrial GCM, SST variability associated with low cloud anomalies has a decadal timescale and is the dominant form of global temperature variability. Both GCMs are coupled to a mixed layer ocean model, where dynamical heat transports are prescribed, thus filtering out El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and thermohaline circulation variability. The occurrence of variability in the absence of dynamical ocean feedbacks suggests that climatic variability on long timescales can arise from atmospheric processes alone.
Miller, R. L.↗
Uncertainty in Tropical Ocean Latent Heat Flux Variability During the Last 25 Years
When averaged over the tropical oceans (30deg N/S), latent heat flux anomalies derived from passive microwave satellite measurements as well as reanalyses and climate models driven with specified seal-surface temperatures show considerable disagreement in their decadal trends. These estimates range from virtually no trend to values over 8.4 W/sq m decade. Satellite estimates also tend to have a larger interannual signal related to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events than do reanalyses or model simulations. An analysis of wind speed and humidity going into bulk aerodynamic calculations used to derive these fluxes reveals several error sources. Among these are apparent remaining intercalibration issues affecting passive microwave satellite 10 m wind speeds and systematic biases in retrieval of near-surface humidity. Likewise, reanalyses suffer from discontinuities in availability of assimilated data that affect near surface meteorological variables. The results strongly suggest that current latent heat flux trends are overestimated.
Robertson, F. R.↗
Variability in Ozone in the Tropical Tropopause Region from the 1998-2000 SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes) Data
The first view of stratospheric and tropospheric ozone variability in the southern hemisphere tropics is provided by a 3-year, 10-site record of ozone soundings from the Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes (SHADOZ) network. Observations covering 1998-2000 were made over Ascension Island; Nairobi, Kenya; Irene, South Africa; Reunion Island; Watukosek, Java; Fiji; Tahiti; American Samoa; San Cristobal, Galapagos; Natal, Brazil. Taking the TTL (tropical tropopause layer) as the region between 12 and 17 km, we examine ozone variability in this region on a week-to-week and seasonal basis. The TTL layer is lower in September-October-November than in March-April-May, when ozone is a minimum at most SHADOZ stations. A zonal wave-one pattern is apparent in column-integrated TTL ozone because ozone mixing ratios are greater over the Atlantic and adjacent continents than over the Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean. The wave-one persists all year with varying magnitude and appears to be due to general circulation - with subsidence over the Atlantic and frequent deep convection over the Pacific and Indian Ocean. The variability of deep convection - most prominent at Java, Fiji, Samoa and Natal - is explored in time-vs-altitude ozone curtains. Stratospheric incursions into the troposphere are most prominent in soundings at Irene and Reunion Island.
Thompson, Anne M.↗
Stochastic-Dynamical Modeling of Space Time Rainfall
The focus of this research work is the elucidation of the physical origins of the observed extreme-rainfall variability over tropical oceans. The quantitative results of this work may be used to establish links between deterministic models of the mesoscale and synoptic scale with statistical descriptions of the temporal variability of local tropical oceanic rainfall. In addition, they may be used to quantify the influence of measurement error in large-scale forcing and cloud scale observations on the accuracy of local rainfall variability inferences, important for hydrologic studies. A simple statistical-dynamical model, suitable for use in repetitive Monte Carlo experiments, is formulated as a diagnostic tool for this purpose. Stochastic processes with temporal structure and parameters estimated from observed large-scale data represent large-scale forcing.
Georgankakos, Konstantine P.↗
Sea surface height variability during 1986-1988 in the tropical Pacific Ocean
A description of the sea surface height variabilities during 1986-1988 in the tropical Pacific Ocean is presented on the basis of Geosat altimeter data and a tropical Pacific Ocean GCM (OGCM) forced with observed winds from Florida State University. Both data sets are validated against in situ sea-level measurements at 12 selected sea-level stations in the equatorial Pacific and were found to be in good agreement with these measurements with correlation coefficients of 0.69 for Geosat and 0.71 for OGCM. The Geosat altimeter data are capable of describing sea surface height variabilities during 1986-1988 in the tropical Pacific, in particular, the seasonal cycle, the 1987 El Nino and 1988 La Nina episodes, and the December 1986 equatorial Kelvin wave event. The OGCM-simulated surface dynamic height is found to be sensitive to different surface wind products.
Chao, YI↗
Comparison of the Variability of Constituents from a 3D Simulation with Observations in the Tropics
Fields from chemical transport models (CTMs) driven by assimilated winds have been shown to represent many aspects of observations at middle and high latitudes. Comparisons of modeled fields with observations have been much poorer in the tropics. Noise in the tropical winds produces variability in constituents in the tropics that greatly exceeds what is observed, Constituent gradients between the tropics, subtropics and middle latitudes are weaker than observed in the lower stratosphere. Tropical transport is shown to be much more realistic using a CTM driven by winds from the assimilation system that has recently been developed by the Data Assimilation Office at Goddard Space Flight Center. The Finite Volume Community Climate Model (FV-CCM), a general circulation model model that uses the NCAR CCM physics and the Lin and Rood dynamical core, is at the core of the new assimilation system. Realistic transport in the tropics, particularly troposphere to stratosphere exchange, is an obvious requirement for realistic representation of the stratosphere to troposphere transport of ozone and other stratospheric constituents to the middle latitude upper troposphere.
Douglass, A. R.↗