Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Trends”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Middle Atmosphere Temperature Trends from Small Rocketsondes

Stratospheric temperature trends derived from United States meteorological rocketsonde measurements obtained between the late 1960's and mid 1990's are examined at the 50-, 40-, and 25-km altitude levels. Although the trends are different at each of the launch locations there is an unequivocal downward slope of about -0.1 K to -0.3K per year at many of the launch sites. Distances between launch sites and, in some cases unequal data-record lengths, inhibit determination of trend inter-relationship among the various sites. Although the data only provide a 'snapshot' of atmospheric behavior for the specific location, a particular advantage resulting from using these particular rocketsonde observations is their consistency over time. Thus, using the same rocketsonde type over the data period, i.e., Datasonde insures a significant reduction of instrument induced anomalies in the temperature profiles. Trends at the 25-km altitude level, approximately 30 hPa, are compared with trends from radiosonde observations. Both rocketsonde and radiosonde measurements were obtained at approximately the same local times and within less than 100 km of each other. Rocketsonde temperatures from the Former Soviet Union are also used and often complement trends from US data.

Schmidlin, F. J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Observed and Modeled Trends in Southern Ocean Sea Ice

Conceptual models and global climate model (GCM) simulations have both indicated the likelihood of an enhanced sensitivity to climate change in the polar regions, derived from the positive feedbacks brought about by the polar abundance of snow and ice surfaces. Some models further indicate that the changes in the polar regions can have a significant impact globally. For instance, 37% of the temperature sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 in simulations with the GCM of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is attributable exclusively to inclusion of sea ice variations in the model calculations. Both sea ice thickness and sea ice extent decrease markedly in the doubled CO, case, thereby allowing the ice feedbacks to occur. Stand-alone sea ice models have shown Southern Ocean hemispherically averaged winter ice-edge retreats of 1.4 deg latitude for each 1 K increase in atmospheric temperatures. Observations, however, show a much more varied Southern Ocean ice cover, both spatially and temporally, than many of the modeled expectations. In fact, the satellite passive-microwave record of Southern Ocean sea ice since late 1978 has revealed overall increases rather than decreases in ice extents, with ice extent trends on the order of 11,000 sq km/year. When broken down spatially, the positive trends are strongest in the Ross Sea, while the trends are negative in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas. Greater spatial detail can be obtained by examining trends in the length of the sea ice season, and those trends show a coherent picture of shortening sea ice seasons throughout almost the entire Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula and in the far western Weddell Sea immediately to the east of the Peninsula, with lengthening sea ice seasons around much of the rest of the continent. This pattern corresponds well with the spatial pattern of temperature trends, as the Peninsula region is the one region in the Antarctic with a strong record of temperature increases. Still, although the patterns of the temperature and ice changes match fairly well, there is a substantial ways to go before these patterns are understood (and can be modeled) in the full context of global change.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Interannual Variability and Trends of Extratropical Ozone: Northern Hemisphere - Part 1

The authors apply principal component analysis (PCA) to the extratropical total column ozone from the combined merged ozone data product and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts assimilated ozone from January 1979 to August 2002. The interannual variability (IAV) of extratropical O-3 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is characterized by four main modes. Attributable to dominant dynamical effects, these four modes account for nearly 60% of the total ozone variance in the NH. The patterns of variability are distinctly different from those derived for total O-3 in the tropics. To relate the derived patterns of O-3 to atmospheric dynamics, similar decompositions are performed for the 30 100-Wa geopotential thickness. The results reveal intimate connections between the IAV of total ozone and the atmospheric circulation. The first two leading modes are nearly zonally symmetric and represent the connections to the annular modes and the quasi-biennial oscillation. The other two modes exhibit in-quadrature, wavenumber-1 structures that, when combined, describe the displacement of the polar vortices in response to planetary waves. In the NH, the extrema of these combined modes have preferred locations that suggest fixed topographical and land-sea thermal forcing of the involved planetary waves. Similar spatial patterns and trends in extratropical column ozone are simulated by the Goddard Earth Observation System chemistryclimate model (GEOS-CCM). The decreasing O-3 trend is captured in the first mode. The largest trend occurs at the North Pole, with values similar to-1 Dobson Unit (DU) yr(-1). There is almost no trend in tropical O-3. The trends derived from PCA are confirmed using a completely independent method, empirical mode decomposition, for zonally averaged O-3 data. The O-3 trend is also captured by mode 1 in the GEOS-CCM, but the decrease is substantially larger than that in the real atmosphere.

Yung, Yuk L.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Comparison of Anomalies and Trends of OLR as Observed by CERES and Computed from Geophysical Parameters Derived from Analysis of AIRS/AMSU Data

Anomalies and trends of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) serve as important indicators of climate change. Several satellite based instruments currently provide information related to OLR. CERES, on board the EOS Aqua and Terra satellites, contains broad band radiometers that measure total flux and short-wave flux, from which OLR is determined. AIRS is a high spectral resolution IR sounder on EOS Aqua that measures IR radiances covering most of the spectral interval 650 cm-1 to 2670 cm-1. These observations enable the determination of detailed information about atmospheric temperature, moisture, and ozone profiles, as well as surface skin temperatures and cloud parameters. The AIRS OLR product is the total flux over the spectral interval 2 cm-1 to2750 cm-1 computed for the surface and atmospheric state determined from AIRS observations. We compared spatial anomalies and trends of OLR, over the seven year period September 2002 through August 2009, as observed by CERES and computed using Version 5 AIRS products. These two sets of OLR anomalies and trends, obtained in very different ways, agree with each other almost perfectly in essentially every detail. This important finding shows that a very stable high spectral infra-red sounder such as AIRS corroborates the anomalies and trends of OLR obtained from CERES. More significantly, anomalies and trends of the individual geophysical parameters derived from AIRS explain the detailed causes of the anomalies and trends of CERES OLR. Both sets of results show that global mean OLR has been decreasing at a rate of 0.12 W/m2/yr over the seven year time period under study. Both also confirm that the primary cause of this is due to changes in the tropics, in which OLR has been decreasing at a rate of 0.27 W/m2/yr. AIRS products show that the decrease of tropical OLR is a result of increasing tropical atmospheric water vapor and cloud cover over the time period studied, which in turn is responding to a very strong E1 Nino/ La Nina cycle. Equatorial ocean temperatures between 160E and 120W cooled considerably during this time period, with corresponding local decreases in mid-tropospheric humidity and cloud cover, resulting in increases in local OLR. This was more than compensated by substantial increases in water vapor and cloud cover elsewhere in the tropics, resulting in a net decrease in tropical OLR.

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2010

Trends in Ocean Irradiance using a Radiative Model Forced with Terra Aerosols and Clouds

Aerosol and cloud information from MODIS on Terra provide enhanced capability to understand surface irradiance over the oceans and its variability. These relationships can be important for ocean biology and carbon cycles. An established radiative transfer model, the Ocean-Atmosphere Spectral Irradiance Model (OASIM) is used to describe ocean irradiance variability on seasonal to decadal time scales. The model is forced with information on aerosols and clouds from the MODIS sensor on Terra and Aqua. A 7-year record (2000-2006) showed no trends in global ocean surface irradiance or photosynthetic available irradiance (PAR). There were significant (P<0.05) negative trends in the Mediterranean Sea, tropical Pacific) and tropical Indian Oceans, of -7.0, -5.0 and -2.7 W/sq m respectively. Global interannual variability was also modest. Regional interannual variability was quite large in some ocean basins, where monthly excursions from climatology were often >20 W/sq m. The trends using MODIS data contrast with results from OASIM using liquid water path estimates from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). Here, a global trend of -2 W/sq m was observed, largely dues to a large negative trend in the Antarctic -12 W/sq m. These results suggest the importance of the choice of liquid water path data sets in assessments of medium-length trends in ocean surface irradiance. The choices also impact the evaluation of changes in ocean biogeochemistry.

Gregg, Watson↗
NASA NTRS2010

AIRS Products Confirm and Explain Recent Negative Trends of OLR as Observed by CERES

Anomalies and trends of OLR serve as important indicators of climate change. Several satellite based instruments currently provide information related to OLR. CERES, on board the EOS Aqua and Terra satellites, contains broad band radiometers that measure total flux and short-wave flux, from which OLR is determined. AIRS is a high spectral resolution IR sounder on EOS Aqua that measures IR radiances covering most of the spectral interval 650/cm to 2670/cm. These observations enable the determination of detailed information about atmospheric temperature, moisture, and ozone profiles, as well as surface skin temperatures and cloud parameters. The AIRS OLR product is the total flux over the spectral interval 2/cm to 2750/cm computed for the surface and atmospheric state determined from AIRS observations. We compared spatial anomalies and trends of OLR, over the seven year period September 2002 through August 2009, as observed by CERES and computed using Version-5 AIRS products. These two sets of OLR anomalies and trends, obtained in very different ways, agree with each other almost perfectly in essentially every detail. This important finding shows that a very stable high spectral infra-red sounder such as AIRS corroborates the anomalies and trends of OLR obtained from CERES. More significantly, anomalies and trends of the individual geophysical parameters derived from AIRS explain the detailed causes of the anomalies and trends of CERES OLR. Both sets of results show that global mean OLR has been decreasing at a rate of 0.12 W/sq m/yr over the seven year time period under study. Both also confirm that the primary cause of this is due to changes in the tropics, in which OLR has been decreasing at a rate of 0.27 W/sq m/yr. AIRS products show that the decrease of tropical OLR is a result of increasing tropical atmospheric water vapor and cloud cover over that time period studied, which in turn is responding to a very strong La Nina; a event starting in late 2007. Equatorial ocean temperatures between 160 E and 120 W cooled considerably during this time period, with corresponding local decreases in mid-tropospheric humidity and cloud cover, resulting in increases in local OLR. This was more than compensated by substantial increases in water vapor and cloud cover elsewhere in the tropics, resulting in a net decrease in tropical OLR. The AIRS Version-5 products currently extend through December 2009. An El Nino event began in late 2009. AIRS products show that tropical OLR began to increase at that time, and there was a corresponding reversal of sign of tropical cloud and water vapor anomalies.

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2011

Recent Change of Vegetation Growth Trend in China

Using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, several previous studies have indicated that vegetation growth significantly increased in most areas of China during the period 1982-99. In this letter, we extended the study period to 2010. We found that at the national scale the growing season (April-October) NDVI significantly increased by 0.0007/yr from 1982 to 2010, but the increasing trend in NDVI over the last decade decreased in comparison to that of the 1982-99 period. The trends in NDVI show significant seasonal and spatial variances. The increasing trend in April and May (AM) NDVI (0.0013/yr is larger than those in June, July and August (JJA) (0.0003/yr) and September and October (SO) (0.0008/yr). This relatively small increasing trend of JJA NDVI during 1982-2010 compared with that during 1982-99 (0.0012/yr) (Piao et al 2003 J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 108 4401) implies a change in the JJA vegetation growth trend, which significantly turned from increasing (0.0039/yr) to slightly decreasing (0:0002/yr) in 1988. Regarding the spatial pattern of changes in NDVI, the growing season NDVI increased (over 0.0020/yr) from 1982 to 2010 in southern China, while its change was close to zero in northern China, as a result of a significant changing trend reversal that occurred in the 1990s and early 2000s. In northern China, the growing season NDVI significantly increased before the 1990s as a result of warming and enhanced precipitation, but decreased after the 1990s due to drought stress strengthened by warming and reduced precipitation. Our results also show that the responses of vegetation growth to climate change vary across different seasons and ecosystems.

Peng, Shushi↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Seasonal Trend of Single Scattering Albedo in Southern African Biomass-burning Particles: Implications for Satellite Products and Estimates of Emissions for the World's Largest Biomass-burning Source

As a representative site of the southern African biomass-burning region, sun-sky data from the 15 year Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) deployment at Mongu, Zambia, was analyzed. For the biomass-burning season months (July-November), we investigate seasonal trends in aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA), aerosol size distributions, and refractive indices from almucantar sky scan retrievals. The monthly mean single scattering albedo at 440 nm in Mongu was found to increase significantly from approx.. 0.84 in July to approx. 0.93 in November (from 0.78 to 0.90 at 675 nm in these same months). There was no significant change in particle size, in either the dominant accumulation or secondary coarse modes during these months, nor any significant trend in the Angstrom exponent (440-870 nm; r(exp 2) = 0.02). A significant downward seasonal trend in imaginary refractive index (r(exp 2) = 0.43) suggests a trend of decreasing black carbon content in the aerosol composition as the burning season progresses. Similarly, burning season SSA retrievals for the Etosha Pan, Namibia AERONET site also show very similar increasing single scattering albedo values and decreasing imaginary refractive index as the season progresses. Furthermore, retrievals of SSA at 388 nm from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument satellite sensor show similar seasonal trends as observed by AERONET and suggest that this seasonal shift is widespread throughout much of southern Africa. A seasonal shift in the satellite retrieval bias of aerosol optical depth from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer collection 5 dark target algorithm is consistent with this seasonal SSA trend since the algorithm assumes a constant value of SSA. Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer, however, appears less sensitive to the absorption-induced bias.

aerosol absorption↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Impact of Trends in the Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation on Mediterranean Surface Turbulent Heat Fluxes

Interannual variations of latent heat fluxes (LHF) and sensible heat fluxes (SHF) over the Mediterranean for the boreal winter season (DJF) show positive trends during 1958-2011. Using reanalysis and satellite-based products, the variability and trends in the heat fluxes are compared with variations in three atmospheric teleconnection patterns: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the pressure and position of the Azores High (AH), and the East Atlantic-West Russia teleconnection pattern (EAWR). Comparison of correlations between the heat fluxes and teleconnections, along with analysis of composites of surface temperature, humidity, and wind fields for different teleconnection states, demonstrates that the AH explains the heat flux changes more successfully than NAO and EAWR. Trends in pressure and longitude of the Azores High show a strengthening and an eastward shift. Variations of the Azores High occur along an axis defined by lower pressure and westward location at one extreme and higher pressure and eastward location at the other extreme. The shift of the AH from predominance of the low/west state to the high/east state induces trends in Mediterranean Sea surface winds, temperature, and moisture. These, combined with sea surface warming trends, produce trends in wintertime sensible and latent heat fluxes.

Latent heat↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Relationships Between the Trends of Mean and Extreme Precipitation

This study provides a better understanding of the relationships between the trends of mean and extreme precipitation in two observed precipitation data sets: the Climate Prediction Center Unified daily precipitation data set and the Global Precipitation Climatology Program (GPCP) pentad data set. The study employs three kinds of definitions of extreme precipitation: (1) percentile, (2) standard deviation and (3) generalize extreme value (GEV) distribution analysis for extreme events based on local statistics. Relationship between trends in the mean and extreme precipitation is identified with a novel metric, i.e. area aggregated matching ratio (AAMR) computed on regional and global scales. Generally, more (less) extreme events are likely to occur in regions with a positive (negative) mean trend. The match between the mean and extreme trends deteriorates for increasingly heavy precipitation events. The AAMR is higher in regions with negative mean trends than in regions with positive mean trends, suggesting a higher likelihood of severe dry events, compared with heavy rain events in a warming climate. AAMR is found to be higher in tropics and oceans than in the extratropics and land regions, reflecting a higher degree of randomness and more important dynamical rather than thermodynamical contributions of extreme events in the latter regions.

global warming↗
NASA NTRS2017

What Factors Control the Trend of Increasing AAOD Over the United States in the Last Decade?

We examine the spatial and temporal trends of absorbing aerosol optical depth (AAOD) in the last decade over the United States (U.S.) observed by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Monthly average OMI AAOD has increased over broad areas of the central U.S. from 2005 to 2015, by up to a factor of 4 in some grid cells (~60 km resolution). The AAOD increases in all seasons, although the percentage increases are larger in summer (June-July-August) than in winter (December-January-February) by a factor of 3. Despite enhancements in AAOD, OMI AOD exhibits insignificant trend over most of the U.S. except parts of the central and western U.S., the latter which may partly be due to decreases in precipitation. Trends in AAOD contrast with declining trends in surface concentrations of black carbon (BC) aerosol. Interannual variability of local biomass burning emissions of BC may contribute to the positive trend in AAOD over the western U.S. Changes in both dust aerosol measured at the surface (in terms of concentration and size) and dust AAOD indicate distinct enhancements, especially over the central U.S. by 50-100%, which appears to be one of the major factors that impacts positive trends in AAOD.

Satellite retrieval↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Vegetation Greenness Trend in Canada and US Alaska from 1984-2012 Landsat Data

To assess the North American high-latitude vegetation response to the rising temperature, we derived NDVI end for 91.2% of the non-water, non-snow land area of Canada and Alaska using the peak-summer Landsat surface reflectance data of 19842012. Our analysis indicated that 29.4% and 2.9 of the land area of Canada and Alaska showed statistically significant positive (greening) and negative (browning) trends respectively, at significance level p b 0.01, after burned forest areas were masked out. The area with greening trend dominated over that with browning trend for all land cover types. The greening occurred primarily in the tundra of western Alaska, along the north coast of Canada and in northeastern Canada; the most intensive and extensive greening occurred in Quebec and Labrador. The browning occurred mostly in the boreal forests of eastern Alaska. The Landsat-based greenness trend is broadly similar to the 8-km GIMMS AVHRR-based trend for all vegetation zones. However, for tundra, the Landsat data indicated much less extensive greening in Alaska North Slope and much more extensive greening in Quebec and Labrador, and substantially less extensive browning trend in the boreal forests that were free of fire disturbances. These differences call for further validation of the Landsat reflectance and the AVHRR NDVI datasets. Correlation study with local environmental factors, such as topography, glacial history and soil condition, will be needed to understand the heterogeneous greenness change at the Landsat scale.

Ju, Junchang↗
NASA NTRS2017

Variability and Trends in the Arctic Sea Ice Cover: Results from Different Techniques

Variability and trend studies of sea ice in the Arctic have been conducted using products derived from the same raw passive microwave data but by different groups using different algorithms. This study provides consistency assessment of four of the leading products, namely, Goddard Bootstrap (SB2), Goddard NASA Team (NT1), EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF 1.2), and Hadley HadISST 2.2 data in evaluating variability and trends in the Arctic sea ice cover. All four provide generally similar ice patterns but significant disagreements in ice concentration distributions especially in the marginal ice zone and adjacent regions in winter and meltponded areas in summer. The discrepancies are primarily due to different ways the four techniques account for occurrences of new ice and meltponding. However, results show that the different products generally provide consistent and similar representation of the state of the Arctic sea ice cover. Hadley and NT1 data usually provide the highest and lowest monthly ice extents, respectively. The Hadley data also show the lowest trends in ice extent and ice area at negative 3.88 percent decade and negative 4.37 percent decade, respectively, compared to an average of negative 4.36 percent decade and negative 4.57 percent decade for all four. Trend maps also show similar spatial distribution for all four with the largest negative trends occurring at the Kara/Barents Sea and Beaufort Sea regions, where sea ice has been retreating the fastest. The good agreement of the trends especially with updated data provides strong confidence in the quantification of the rate of decline in the Arctic sea ice cover.

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS2019

Observation and Attribution of Temperature Trends near the Stratopause from HALOE

This study considers time series of temperature versus pressure, T(p), from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) across the stratopause region, where the effects of radiative forcings from the greenhouse gases (CO2 and H2O) and from ozone are most pronounced. Trend analyses are from 1993-2005 for HALOE T(p) values at seven levels from 3.0 to 0.3 hPa with a vertical resolution of about 4 km and for eight latitude zones from 65°S to 65°N. The HALOE trends at 2.0 hPa are of the order of -1.0 K/decade across the tropics and subtropics, but then become smaller (-0.5 K/decade) at the middle latitudes. The near-global HALOE trend profile has a minimum cooling rate of -0.2 K/decade at 1.0 hPa, although it is more negative in the southern hemisphere and slightly positive in the northern hemisphere. The combined radiative forcings from CO2, H2O, and ozone are from -0.4 to -0.6 K/decade for 1993-2005 and are hemispherically symmetric. HALOE temperature trend and total radiative cooling profiles differ from those reported from observations and calculations for 1980-2000, mainly because the ozone trends changed from clearly negative in the 1980s through mid-1990s to slightly positive during the time of HALOE. Trends for the tracer, HALOE methane (CH4), increase from 2 to 4 %/decade from 50 hPa to 10 hPa, indicating an acceleration of the Brewer/Dobson circulation. Analyses of time series of CH4 across the stratopause reveal more variability in the northern hemisphere, where wave dissipation likely contributes to the heating.

Remsberg, Ellis↗
NASA NTRS2020

Interannual Variability and Trends of Combustion Aerosol and Dust in Major Continental Outflows Revealed by MODIS Retrievals and CAM5 Simulations During 2003-2017

Emissions and long-range transport of mineral dust and combustion-related aerosol from burning fossil fuels and biomass vary from year to year, driven by the evolution of the economy and changes in meteorological conditions and environmental regulations. This study offers both satellite and model perspectives of interannual variability and possible trend of combustion aerosol and dust in major continental outflow regions over the past 15 years (2003-2017). The decade-long record of aerosol optical depth (AOD, denoted as t), separately for combustion aerosol (τ(sub c)) and dust (τ(sub d)), over global oceans is derived from the Collection 6 aerosol products of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard both Terra and Aqua. These MODIS/Aqua datasets, complemented by aerosol source-tagged simulations using the Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (CAM5), are then analyzed to understand the interannual variability and potential trend of τ(sub c) and τ(sub d) in the major continental outflows. Both MODIS and CAM5 consistently yield a similar decreasing trend of -0.017 to - 0.020 decade(exp -1) for τ(sub c) over the North Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea that is attributable to reduced emissions from North America and Europe, respectively. On the contrary, both MODIS and CAM5 display an increasing trend of +0.017 to +0.036 decade(exp -1) for τ(sub c) over the tropical Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, and the Arabian Sea, which reflects the influence of increased anthropogenic emissions from South Asia and Middle East in the last two decades. Over the northwestern Pacific Ocean that is often affected by East Asian emissions of pollution and dust, the MODIS retrievals show a decreasing trend of - 0.021 decade(exp -1) for τ(sub c) and -0.012 decade(exp -1) for τ(sub d), which is however not reproduced by the CAM5 model. In other outflow regions strongly influenced by biomass burning smoke or dust, both MODIS retrievals and CAM5 simulations show no statistically significant trends; and the MODIS observed interannual variability is usually larger than that of the CAM5 simulation.

Hongbin Yu↗
NASA NTRS2019

Surface erythemal UV irradiance in the continental United States derived from ground-based and OMI observations: quality assessment, trend analysis and sampling issues

Surface full-sky erythemal dose rate (EDR) from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) at both satellite overpass time and local noon time is evaluated against ground measurements at 31 sites from the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) UV-B Monitoring and Research Program (UVMRP) over the period of 2005–2017. We find that both OMI overpass and solar noon time EDR are highly correlated with the measured counterparts (with a linear correlation coefficient of 0.90 and 0.88, respectively). Although the comparison statistics are improved with a longer time window (0.5–1.0 h) for pairing surface and OMI measurements, both OMI overpass and local noon time EDRs have 7 % overestimation that is larger than 6 % uncertainty in the ground measurements and show different levels of dependence on solar zenith angle (SZA) and to lesser extent on cloud optical depth. The ratio of EDR between local noon and OMI overpass time is often (95 % in frequency) larger than 1 with a mean of 1.18 in the OMI product; in contrast, the same ratio from surface observation is normally distributed with 22 % of the times less than 1 and a mean of 1.38. This contrast in part reflects the deficiency in the OMI surface UV algorithm that assumes constant atmospheric conditions between overpass and noon time. The probability density functions (PDFs) for both OMI and ground measurements of noontime EDR are in statistically significant agreement, showing dual peaks at ∼20 and ∼200 mW/sq. m, respectively; the latter is lower than 220 mW/ sq. m, the value at which the PDF of daily EDR from ground measurements peaks, and this difference indicates that the largest EDR value for a given day may not often occur at local noon. Lastly, statistically significant positive trends of EDR are found in the northeastern US in OMI data, but opposite trends are found within ground-based data (regardless of sampling for either noontime or daily averages). While positive trends are consistently found between OMI and surface data for EDR over the southern Great Plains (Texas and Oklahoma), their values are within the uncertainty of ground measurements. Overall, no scientifically sound trends can be found among OMI data for aerosol total and absorbing optical depth, cloud optical depth and total ozone to explain coherently the surface UV trends revealed either by OMI or ground-based estimates; these data also cannot reconcile trend differences between the two estimates (of EDR from OMI and surface observations). Future geostationary satellites with better spatiotemporal resolution data should help overcome spatiotemporal sampling issues inherent in OMI data products and therefore improve the estimates of surface UV flux and EDR from space.

Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)↗
NASA NTRS2023

An Assessment of Stratospheric Water Vapor Trends and Variations Above the Boulder Region

This study analyzes time series of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) data at 30 hPa, based on frost-point hygrometer (FPH) measurements at Boulder, CO (40°N, 255°E), and on sets of HALOE scans above that region for 1993 through 2005; their differing trends agree with previously published findings. Yet, there is an apparent switch over in 2002 from positive to negative trends in the HALOE time series, and that change follows the episodic decrease of tropical, lower stratospheric SWV in early 2001. The HALOE data points only resolve medium to large scale spatial variations, as they are based on an average of four or more limb scans within a latitude/longitude sector near Boulder. The FPH time series do not indicate a similar change of trend in 2002, although its time series points have variations about the mean that are twice as large as those from HALOE. The FPH soundings are sensitive to variations from all spatial scales, however, including the effects of a local vertical mixing of the air due to gravity waves. The vertical gradient SWV mixing ratio with altitude is positive at 30 hPa. There is also a positive trend in methane and its conversion to water vapor during this time that may explain a slightly larger SWV trend from the local FPH data than from the HALOE data. The Nimbus 7 LIMS experiment provides daily SWV plots at medium to large scales during the dynamically active, winter and springtime periods, for assessing the effects of meridional transport of SWV from its source regions. There is transport of high SWV from polar regions and of lower SWV from the subtropics at those times. SWV variations and trends from both the FPH and HALOE time series are reasonable and in accord with the spatial scales that they observed.

Ellis Remsberg↗
NASA NTRS2024

Investigating Zonal Asymmetries in Stratospheric Ozone Trends From Satellite Limb Observations and a Chemical Transport Model

This study investigates the origin of a zonal asymmetry in stratospheric ozone trends at northern high latitudes, identified in satellite limb observations over the past two decades. We use a merged data set consisting of ozone profiles retrieved at the University of Bremen from SCIAMACHY and OMPS-LP measurements to derive ozone trends. We also use TOMCAT chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, forced by ERA5 reanalyses, to investigate the factors that drive the asymmetry observed in the long-term changes. By studying seasonally and longitudinally resolved observation-based ozone trends, we find, especially during spring, a well-pronounced asymmetry at polar latitudes with values up to +6 % per decade over Greenland and −5 % per decade over western Russia. The control CTM simulation agrees well with these observed trends, whereas sensitivity simulations indicate that chemical mechanisms involved in the production and removal of ozone, or their changes, are unlikely to explain the observed behavior. The decomposition of TOMCAT ozone time series and ERA5 geopotential height into the first two wavenumber components shows a clear correlation between the two variables in the middle stratosphere and demonstrates a weakening and a shift in the wavenumber-1 planetary wave activity over the past two decades. Finally, the analysis of the polar vortex position and strength points to a decadal oscillation with a reversal pattern at the beginning of the century. The same is found in the ozone trend asymmetry. This further stresses the link between changes in the polar vortex position and the identified ozone trend pattern.

Instrumentation↗