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An overview of NETL's Gasification Systems R&D was provided at the 2024 FECM/NETL Spring R&D Project Review Meeting on April 24, 2024, in Pittsburgh, PA. The objective of the Advanced Reaction Systems Portfolio is to design, develop, and analyze technologies to support the mission of the Gasification Program to enable the use of diverse feedstocks to produce hydrogen and other value-added products with net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.
The Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technologies (SSAT) Project asked the AvSP Systems and Portfolio Analysis Team to identify SSAT-related trends. SSAT had four technical challenges: advance safety assurance to enable deployment of NextGen systems; automated discovery of precursors to aviation safety incidents; increasing safety of human-automation interaction by incorporating human performance, and prognostic algorithm design for safety assurance. This report reviews incident data from the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) for system-component-failure- or-malfunction- (SCFM-) related and human-factor-related incidents for commercial or cargo air carriers (Part 121), commuter airlines (Part 135), and general aviation (Part 91). The data was analyzed by Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR) part, phase of flight, SCFM category, human factor category, and a variety of anomalies and results. There were 38 894 SCFM-related incidents and 83 478 human-factorrelated incidents analyzed between January 1993 and April 2011.
The programs within NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) conduct research and development to improve the national air transportation system so that Americans can travel as safely as possible. NASA aviation safety systems analysis personnel support various levels of ARMD management in their fulfillment of system analysis and technology prioritization as defined in the agency's program and project requirements. This paper provides a framework for the assessment of aviation safety research and technology portfolios that includes metrics such as projected impact on current and future safety, technical development risk and implementation risk. The paper also contains methods for presenting portfolio analysis and aviation safety Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) output results to management using bubble charts and quantitative decision analysis techniques.
The project known as "Dust as a Working Fluid" demonstrates the feasibility of a dust-based system for transferring heat radiatively into space for those space applications requiring higher efficiency, lower mass, and the need to operate in extreme vacuum and thermal environments - including operating in low or zero gravity conditions in which the dust can be conveyed much more easily than on Earth.
The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Better Climate Challenge invites organizations to partner with DOE to set ambitious, portfolio-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction goals. To better understand the barriers to these goals and to demonstrate successful emissions reduction pathways, organizations can access working groups as one form of technical assistance from leading experts. One working group focus was the use of on-site renewable energy and storage - a key decarbonization strategy after energy efficiency. Members of the Better Climate Challenge onsite renewable energy and storage working group first identified barriers to implementing these technologies. Solutions were then brainstormed to support portfolio building owners to move from single systems to widespread implementation. Example insights include improving understandings of installation processes and location decisions, making the business case to relevant stakeholders, discussing unanticipated challenges throughout the process, and replicating these technologies across portfolios. This paper details valuable market feedback and highlights pathways to move toward widespread deployment of renewable energy and storage solutions.
The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center is expanding its current technology assessment methodologies. ACO is developing a framework called TAPP that uses a variety of methods, such as association mining and rule learning from data mining, structure development using a Technological Innovation System (TIS), and social network modeling to measure structural relationships. The role of ACO is to 1) produce a broad spectrum of ideas and alternatives for a variety of NASA's missions, 2) determine mission architecture feasibility and appropriateness to NASA's strategic plans, and 3) define a project in enough detail to establish an initial baseline capable of meeting mission objectives ACO's role supports the decision-making process associated with the maturation of concepts for traveling through, living in, and understanding space. ACO performs concept studies and technology assessments to determine the degree of alignment between mission objectives and new technologies. The first step in technology assessment is to identify the current technology maturity in terms of a technology readiness level (TRL). The second step is to determine the difficulty associated with advancing a technology from one state to the next state. NASA has used TRLs since 1970 and ACO formalized them in 1995. The DoD, ESA, Oil & Gas, and DoE have adopted TRLs as a means to assess technology maturity. However, "with the emergence of more complex systems and system of systems, it has been increasingly recognized that TRL assessments have limitations, especially when considering [the] integration of complex systems." When performing the second step in a technology assessment, NASA requires that an Advancement Degree of Difficulty (AD2) method be utilized. NASA has used and developed or used a variety of methods to perform this step: Expert Opinion or Delphi Approach, Value Engineering or Value Stream, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for the Order of Prioritization by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and other multi‐criteria decision-making methods. These methods can be labor-intensive, often contain cognitive or parochial bias, and do not consider the competing prioritization between mission architectures. Strategic Decision-Making (SDM) processes cannot be properly understood unless the context of the technology is understood. This makes assessing technological change particularly challenging due to the relationships "between incumbent technology and the incumbent (innovation) system in relation to the emerging technology and the emerging innovation system." The central idea in technology dynamics is to consider all activities that contribute to the development, diffusion, and use of innovations as system functions. Bergek defines system functions within a TIS to address what is actually happening and has a direct influence on the ultimate performance of the system and technology development. ACO uses similar metrics and is expanding these metrics to account for the structure and context of the technology. At NASA technology and strategy is strongly interrelated. NASA's Strategic Space Technology Investment Plan (SSTIP) prioritizes those technologies essential to the pursuit of NASA's missions and national interests. The SSTIP is strongly coupled with NASA's Technology Roadmaps to provide investment guidance during the next four years, within a twenty-year horizon. This paper discusses the methods ACO is currently developing to better perform technology assessments while taking into consideration Strategic Alignment, Technology Forecasting, and Long Term Planning.
Technology readiness level (TRL) labeling and forecasting today is done entirely manually. A computationally-assisted model of a TRL-like classification for estimation and tracking could enable a research and development (R&D) portfolio manager to more accurately estimate the relative level of development for technologies in that portfolio. This report describes the work to understand readiness level systems, train a machine learning algorithm to recognize textual indicators of particular readiness levels within written material from carefully chosen case studies in renewable technology development, and apply that algorithm to predict the readiness levels of other technology development cases. We account for the results of each step of the work conducted, including the predictive accuracy of the trained model: 54% correct, within a +/-1 readiness level error threshold and a root mean squared error of 1.88. Great potential remains to improve and apply this model for management of individual projects and across portfolios.
Technology readiness level (TRL) labeling and forecasting today is done entirely manually. A computationally-assisted model of a TRL-like classification for estimation and tracking could enable a research and development (R&D) portfolio manager to more accurately estimate the relative level of development for technologies in that portfolio. This report describes the work to understand readiness level systems, train a machine learning algorithm to recognize textual indicators of particular readiness levels within written material from carefully chosen case studies in renewable technology development, and apply that algorithm to predict the readiness levels of other technology development cases. We account for the results of each step of the work conducted, including the predictive accuracy of the trained model: 54% correct, within a +/-1 readiness level error threshold and a root mean squared error of 1.88. Great potential remains to improve and apply this model for management of individual projects and across portfolios.
This paper describes an approach for qualifying optimal technology portfolios obtained with a multi-attribute decision support system. The goal is twofold: to gauge the degree of confidence in the optimal solution and to provide the decision-maker with an array of viable selection alternatives, which take into account input uncertainties and possibly satisfy non-technical constraints.
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is focused on providing a portfolio of technology solutions to meet energy security challenges of the future. Fuel cells are a part of this portfolio of technology offerings. To help meet these challenges and supplement the understanding of the current research, Battelle has executed a five-year program that evaluated the total system costs and total ownership costs of two technologies: (1) an ~80 °C polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) technology and (2) a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology, operating with hydrogen or reformate for different applications. Previous research conducted by Battelle, and more recently by other research institutes, suggests that fuel cells can offer customers significant fuel and emission savings along with other benefits compared to incumbent alternatives. For this project, Battelle has applied a proven cost assessment approach to assist the DOE Fuel Cell Technologies Program in making decisions regarding research and development, scale-up, and deployment of fuel cell technology. The cost studies and subsequent reports provide accurate projections of current system costs and the cost impact of state-of-the-art technologies in manufacturing, increases in production volume, and changes to system design on system cost and life cycle cost for several near-term and emerging fuel cell markets. The studies also provide information on types of manufacturing processes that must be developed to commercialize fuel cells and also provide insights into the optimization needed for use of off-the-shelf components in fuel cell systems. Battelle’s analysis is intended to help DOE prioritize investments in research and development of components to reduce the costs of fuel cell systems while considering systems optimization.
As NASA prepares for the Vision for Space Exploration, advances in technology for water recovery systems are necessary to enable future missions. This paper examines the proposed water recovery systems for the initial Constellation exploration missions as well as the capability gaps that exist in the current technology portfolio. We discuss how these gaps will be addressed with future technology development. In addition, the paper reviews how the water recovery system matures throughout the sequence of planned exploration missions, to ultimately support a 180-day lunar mission.
The NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) Project is focused on developing and demonstrating integrated systems technologies to TRL 4-6 by 2020 that enable reduced fuel burn, emissions, and noise for futuristic air vehicles. The specific goals aim to simultaneously reduce fuel burn by 50%, reduce Landing and Take-off Nitrous Oxides emissions by 75% relative to the CAEP 6 guidelines, and reduce cumulative noise by 42 Decibels relative to the Stage 4 guidelines. These goals apply to the integrated vehicle and propulsion system and are based on a reference mission of 3000nm flight of a Boeing 777-200 with GE90 engines. This paper will focus primarily on the ERA propulsion technology portfolio, which consists of advanced combustion, propulsor, and core technologies to enable these integrated air vehicle systems goals. An overview of the ERA propulsion technologies will be described and highlights of the results obtained during the first phase of ERA will be presented.
The project team of Southwest Research Institute ® (SwRI ® ), Malta Inc. (Malta), and Luminant Generation Company LLC (Luminant) completed a feasibility study for the integration of a 100-MW, 10-hour (1000-MWh) Malta Pumped Heat Energy Storage (MPHES) system with multiple full-sized fossil-fired electricity generation units (EGU) in Luminant portfolio. MPHES is a long-duration, molten-salt-energy storage technology that uses turbomachinery and heat exchangers to transfer energy to a thermal storage media when charging, and removes the heat in a similar fashion when discharging. With high round trip efficiency (60-65%) and long lifespan (30+ years), MPHES provides economic benefits to the fossil-asset owners that can be scaled to integrate with assets across their portfolio. This technology uses hardware components, workforce personnel, and skillsets similar to those used by fossil EGUs, allowing for synergy when co-locating the two technologies. Luminant has approximately 39,000 megawatts of generation across 12 states, operating in six of the seven competitive markets in the U.S. and powered by a diverse portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, and solar facilities. The DeCordova plant in Granbury, Texas, a simple cycle natural gas peaker power plant, was used as the fossil-fired asset in this project. The local market in Granbury, Texas has many influences, including several nearby power plants, a Luminant-owned nuclear plant (Comanche Peak), and substantial wind energy, which causes both negative pricing at night and high market volatility. Reducing false starts of the DeCordova plant and better responding to market volatility would be an economic advantage. Luminant is currently integrating battery storage plant on site to begin addressing these challenges. Integrating long-duration storage, like MPHES, would expand this capability beyond one hour of storage and have the potential to greatly reduce the total number of gas turbine starts. The MPHES charging requirement could help offset the overnight operating costs of Comanche Peak, which cannot load follow, and the nearby Luminant-owned Wise County combined cycle plant that cycles too often. Following the assessment of Luminant’s ERCOT-based portfolio for integration compatibility with Malta’s PHES system and the project tasks of conceptual study, technoeconomic analysis, technology gap assessment, and commercialization plan, the project team effort has resulted in several key outcomes: (1) Identification of market trends in a high-wind penetration market outside a major metropolitan area; (2) Creation of a dispatching model for the MPHES system and the pairing of Li-ion battery with a gas turbine in a real time market; (3) Revenue and cost estimations for operating MPHES alongside a gas peaker plant with real dispatching considerations and comparison with variations in the Malta implementation, including doubling the storage capacity and using two discharge drivetrains; (4) Potential carbon emission reductions possible by replacing gas turbine operation with Malta PHES operation; and (5) Summary of literature-based future market predictions for Texas.
Realization of EGS development would make geothermal a significant contender in the renewable energy portfolio, on the order of 100+ GWe in the United States alone. While up to 90% of the geothermal power resource in the United States is thought to reside in Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), hurdles to commercial development still remain. The Geothermal Technologies Office, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), began in 2011 to outline opportunities for advancing EGS technologies on five- to 20-year timescales, with community input on the underlying technology needs that will guide research and ultimately determine commercial success for EGS. This report traces DOE's research investments, past and present, and ties them to these technology needs, forming the basis for an EGS Technology Roadmap to help guide future DOE research. This roadmap is currently open for public comment. Send your comments to geothermal@ee.doe.gov.
The interdependence of technology development, conceptual design, and system analysis is examined in the context of an overall systems engineering set of processes. In particular, the role of technology portfolio management - from initial investment decision-making all the way through technology maturation and transfer to industry - is emphasized. Additionally, the role of state of the art assessments is considered in terms of planning and tracking progress towards the development of enhanced predictive capabilities.
Achieving 100% carbon-free or renewable power systems can be facilitated by the deployment of energy storage technologies at all timescales, including short-duration, long-duration, and seasonal scales; however, most current literature focuses on cost assessments of energy storage for a given timescale or type of technology. In this work, we use an optimization framework with high spatial and temporal resolution to simultaneously assess the variable renewable power deployment and the optimal storage portfolio for seven independent system operators in the United States. Results indicate that achieving high (75–90%) and ultrahigh (>90%) energy mixes requires combining several flexibility options, including renewable curtailment, short-duration, long-duration, and seasonal storage. For instance, carbon-free and renewable energy mix targets of up to 80% are achieved with economic curtailment and a combination of short- and long-duration energy storage for the performance and cost assumptions used. After that, there is a point between 80% and 95% where seasonal storage becomes cost-competitive, depending on the specific power system. Moreover, our results indicate that storage-to-storage operation—one storage device used to charge another storage device—and the decoupling of charging and discharging storage power capacity are cost-effective options for the integration of high and ultrahigh shares of carbon-free or renewable power sources. Additionally, the results from this study show that an 85% carbon-free or renewable energy mix can be achieved at a cost of avoided CO 2 emissions of US$66.0 per tonne or less, regardless of the power system.
This abstract provides a comprehensive plan supporting the continued development and integration of all waste operations and waste management business systems. These include existing systems such as ATMS (Automated Transportation Management System), RadCalc, RFITS (Radio Frequency Identification Transportation System) Programs as well as incorporating key components of existing government developed waste management systems and COTS (Computer Off The Shelf) applications in order to deliver a truly integrated waste tracking and management business system. Some of these existing systems to be integrated include IWTS at Idaho National Lab, WIMS at Sandia National Lab and others. The aggregation of data and consolidation into a single comprehensive business system delivers best practices in lifecycle waste management processes to be delivered across the Department of Energy facilities. This concept exists to reduce operational costs to the federal government by combining key business systems into a centralized enterprise application following the methodology that as contractors change, the tools they use to manage DOE's assets do not. IWITS is one efficient representation of a sound architecture currently supporting multiple DOE sites from a waste management solution. The integration of ATMS, RadCalc and RFITS and the concept like IWITS into a single solution for DOE contractors will result in significant savings and increased efficiencies for DOE. Building continuity and solving collective problems can only be achieved through mass collaboration, resulting in an online community that DOE contractors and subcontractors access common applications, allowing for the collection of business intelligence at an unprecedented level. This is a fundamental shift from a solely 'for profit' business model to a 'for purpose' business model. To the conventional-minded, putting values before profit is an unfamiliar and unnatural way for a contractor to operate - unless however; your objective is to build a strong, strategic alliance across the enterprise in order to execute an unprecedented change in waste management, transportation and logistical operations. The success of such an initiative can be achieved by creating a responsible framework by enabling key individuals to 'own' the sustainability of the program. This includes the strategic collaboration of responsible revolutionaries covering application developers, information owners and federal stakeholders to ensure compliance, security and risk management are 'baked' into the process and sustainability is fostered through continued innovation by both technology and application functionality. This ensures that working software can adapt to changing circumstances and is the principle measure of the success of the program. The consolidation of waste management business systems must be achieved in order to realize efficiencies in information technology portfolio management, data integrity, business intelligence and the lifecycle management of hazardous materials within the DOE enterprise architecture. By identifying best practices across the enterprise and aggregating computational and application development resources, you can provide a unified, holistic solution serviceable from a single location while being accessed from anywhere. The business impact of integrating and delivering a unified solution would reduce costs to the Department of Energy within the first year of deployment with increased savings annually. (author)
The Entry Systems Modeling project (ESM) is supported by both the NASA Space Technology and the Science Mission Directorates and focuses on developing simulation tools and validated models for characterizing the performance of entry systems tailored to planetary destinations across the Solar System. ESM is organized into six technical capability areas that together address all relevant factors related to spacecraft entry, as well as some aspects of descent: Thermal Protection System (TPS) Materials; Aerothermodynamics; Entry & Descent Vehicle Dynamics; Guidance, Navigation, and Control; Vehicle Systems Analysis; and Advanced Tools and Numerical Methods. Development within the capability areas is undertaken explicitly with a focus on transition and infusion to science missions, human exploration missions, and commercial space activities. The present talk details developments that specifically impact science missions, including simulation tool capabilities that aid in mission design and model development to understand entry system performance at a given destination. Examples of the successful infusion and transition of such project outcomes to science missions also are provided. Several simulation tool development efforts within ESM have resulted in new design capabilities for missions. One such outcome is improved toolsets for mission trajectory and concept of operations design. Specifically, an initiative to couple a leading tool for entry, ascent/descent, and orbital trajectory optimization (Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II or POST2) to those used within the Agency for interplanetary trajectory optimization (Copernicus and Monte) has made substantial progress, with the outcomes to date promising to allow efficient trajectory optimization across mission phases. Additionally, toolchains for the evaluation of vehicle performance during entry and descent have been developed that allow assessment of multi-dimensional aeroheating on detailed vehicle geometries, characterization of deployment and inflation of parachutes, and assessment of vehicle dynamic stability during descent. These capabilities are achieved by coupling diverse sets of physics together – material response, computational fluid dynamics, radiation, and vehicle dynamics – to suitably describe complex entry and descent phenomena. Several model development and validation efforts for specific destinations and entry regimes also are underway within the ESM project. For instance, new experimental capabilities to validate radiation models at low densities/high altitudes recently have been established with project support, specifically the Low-Density Shock Tube (LDST) at the NASA Ames Research Center Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility. The LDST is being leveraged to develop improved models of shock layer kinetics and radiation in Titan atmospheres, while future studies will be conducted in the LDST and the existing high velocity shock tube to provide validation data for radiation models of Venus, Ice Giants, and Mars atmospheres. Models describing the aerothermal and thermo-structural performance of Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials has been another focus, with multiscale modeling activities on-going for the two leading TPS materials applicable to a range of entry conditions and science missions: the Phenolic-Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) and woven materials like 3D Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP). A continual effort is made to infuse and transition outcomes from ESM simulation tool and model development activities into relevant science missions. Significant progress has been made on this front, with missions such as Dragonfly, DAVINCI, and Mars Missions benefitting from project outcomes. The groundwork also is being laid to provide insights into forward looking missions to Gas/Ice Giants as well as for potential sample returns.