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NASA NTRS2014

A Framework for Assessment of Aviation Safety Technology Portfolios

The programs within NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) conduct research and development to improve the national air transportation system so that Americans can travel as safely as possible. NASA aviation safety systems analysis personnel support various levels of ARMD management in their fulfillment of system analysis and technology prioritization as defined in the agency's program and project requirements. This paper provides a framework for the assessment of aviation safety research and technology portfolios that includes metrics such as projected impact on current and future safety, technical development risk and implementation risk. The paper also contains methods for presenting portfolio analysis and aviation safety Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) output results to management using bubble charts and quantitative decision analysis techniques.

Jones, Sharon M.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Global Cost and Weight Evaluation of Fuselage Side Panel Design Concepts

This report documents preliminary design trades conducted under NASA contracts NAS1 18889 (Advanced Technology Composite Aircraft Structures, ATCAS) and NAS1-19349 (Task 3, Pathfinder Shell Design) for a subsonic wide body commercial aircraft fuselage side panel section utilizing composite materials. Included in this effort were (1) development of two complete design concepts, (2) generation of cost and weight estimates, (3) identification of technical issues and potential design enhancements, and (4) selection of a single design to be further developed. The first design concept featured an open-section stringer stiffened skin configuration while the second was based on honeycomb core sandwich construction. The trade study cost and weight results were generated from comprehensive assessment of each structural component comprising the fuselage side panel section from detail fabrication through airplane final assembly. Results were obtained in three phases: (1) for the baseline designs, (2) after global optimization of the designs, and (3) the results anticipated after detailed design optimization. A critical assessment of both designs was performed to determine the risk associated with each concept, that is the relative probability of achieving the cost and weight projections. Seven critical technical issues were identified as the first step towards side panel detailed design optimization.

Polland, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Manned Spacecraft Requirements for Materials and Processes

A major cause of project failure can be attributed to an emphasized focus on end products and inadequate attention to resolving development risks during the initial phases of a project. The initial phases of a project, which we will call the "study period", are critical to determining project scope and costs, and can make or break most projects. If the requirements are not defined adequately, how can the scope be adequately determined, also how can the costs of the entire project be effectively estimated, and how can the risk of project success be accurately assessed? Using the proper material specifications and standards and incorporating these specifications and standards in the design process should be considered inherently crucial to the technical success of a project as just as importantly, crucial to the cost and schedule success. This paper will intertwine several important aspects or considerations for project success: 1) Characteristics of a "Good Material Requirement"; 2) Linking material requirements to the implementation of "Design for Manufacturing"; techniques and 3) The importance of decomposing materials requirements during the study phase/development phase to mitigate project risk for the maturation of technologies before the building of hardware.

Vaughn, Timothy P.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Systems Engineering Approach to Technology Integration for NASA's 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle

The overall goal of the 2nd Generation RLV Program is to substantially reduce technical and business risks associated with developing a new class of reusable launch vehicles. NASA's specific goals are to improve the safety of a 2nd generation system by 2 orders of magnitude - equivalent to a crew risk of 1-in-10,000 missions - and decrease the cost tenfold, to approximately $1,000 per pound of payload launched. Architecture definition is being conducted in parallel with the maturating of key technologies specifically identified to improve safety and reliability, while reducing operational costs. An architecture broadly includes an Earth-to-orbit reusable launch vehicle, on-orbit transfer vehicles and upper stages, mission planning, ground and flight operations, and support infrastructure, both on the ground and in orbit. The systems engineering approach ensures that the technologies developed - such as lightweight structures, long-life rocket engines, reliable crew escape, and robust thermal protection systems - will synergistically integrate into the optimum vehicle. To best direct technology development decisions, analytical models are employed to accurately predict the benefits of each technology toward potential space transportation architectures as well as the risks associated with each technology. Rigorous systems analysis provides the foundation for assessing progress toward safety and cost goals. The systems engineering review process factors in comprehensive budget estimates, detailed project schedules, and business and performance plans, against the goals of safety, reliability, and cost, in addition to overall technical feasibility. This approach forms the basis for investment decisions in the 2nd Generation RLV Program's risk-reduction activities. Through this process, NASA will continually refine its specialized needs and identify where Defense and commercial requirements overlap those of civil missions.

Thomas, Dale↗

NASA NTRS2002

Systems Engineering Approach to Technology Integration for NASA's 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle

The overall goal of the 2nd Generation RLV Program is to substantially reduce technical and business risks associated with developing a new class of reusable launch vehicles. NASA's specific goals are to improve the safety of a 2nd-generation system by 2 orders of magnitude - equivalent to a crew risk of 1-in-10,000 missions - and decrease the cost tenfold, to approximately $1,000 per pound of payload launched. Architecture definition is being conducted in parallel with the maturating of key technologies specifically identified to improve safety and reliability, while reducing operational costs. An architecture broadly includes an Earth-to-orbit reusable launch vehicle, on-orbit transfer vehicles and upper stages, mission planning, ground and flight operations, and support infrastructure, both on the ground and in orbit. The systems engineering approach ensures that the technologies developed - such as lightweight structures, long-life rocket engines, reliable crew escape, and robust thermal protection systems - will synergistically integrate into the optimum vehicle. To best direct technology development decisions, analytical models are employed to accurately predict the benefits of each technology toward potential space transportation architectures as well as the risks associated with each technology. Rigorous systems analysis provides the foundation for assessing progress toward safety and cost goals. The systems engineering review process factors in comprehensive budget estimates, detailed project schedules, and business and performance plans, against the goals of safety, reliability, and cost, in addition to overall technical feasibility. This approach forms the basis for investment decisions in the 2nd Generation RLV Program's risk-reduction activities. Through this process, NASA will continually refine its specialized needs and identify where Defense and commercial requirements overlap those of civil missions.

Thomas, Dale↗

NASA NTRS2011

Overview of the Ares I Scale Model Acoustic Test Program

Launch environments, such as lift-off acoustic (LOA) and ignition overpressure (IOP), are important design factors for any vehicle and are dependent upon the design of both the vehicle and the ground systems. LOA environments are used directly in the development of vehicle vibro-acoustic environments and IOP is used in the loads assessment. The NASA Constellation Program had several risks to the development of the Ares I vehicle linked to LOA. The risks included cost, schedule and technical impacts for component qualification due to high predicted vibro-acoustic environments. One solution is to mitigate the environment at the component level. However, where the environment is too severe for component survivability, reduction of the environment itself is required. The Ares I Scale Model Acoustic Test (ASMAT) program was implemented to verify the Ares I LOA and IOP environments for the vehicle and ground systems including the Mobile Launcher (ML) and tower. An additional objective was to determine the acoustic reduction for the LOA environment with an above deck water sound suppression system. ASMAT was a development test performed at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) East Test Area (ETA) Test Stand 116 (TS 116). The ASMAT program is described in this presentation.

Counter, Douglas D.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Composites for Advanced Drive Systems, A Systems Analysis-Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology (RVLT)

Rotorcraft propulsion systems are continually looking to improve power density; that is reducing weight and increasing power throughput. In order to advance rotorcraft propulsion system technology, NASA Glenn Research Center (NGRC) contracted Boeing Vertical Lift (Contract #NNA15AB12B, Task Order NNA16BE07T) to perform system level benefit assessments for incorporation of composite materials into rotorcraft transmission gear and shaft systems, in the rotating frame. In general, the environment inside a typical rotorcraft transmission is aggressive for typical composite materials. Design challenges in the rotating frame and related safety risks must be understood and accounted for in the design. Boeing developed a technical approach that evaluated a relatively large population of rotorcraft main transmissions. This technical approach took rotorcraft from various size classes and configurations and applied parametric weight estimating principles to assess the performance impact of composite hybrid technologies inside transmissions, in the rotating frame. Parametric weight estimates showed that composite hybrid technologies account for an average 9% weight savings over the baseline transmissions. More weight savings may be observed when accounting for quantity of transmissions in an aircraft configuration and benefits to airframe, landing gear, and fuel systems. A weight reduction of 595 lbs was calculated for NASA's Large Civil Tilt Rotor (LCTR2) by utilizing composite hybrid components inside the Prop-Rotor Transmission in the rotating frame and accounting for design changes to the airframe, landing gear, and fuel system. In order to develop composite hybrid technologies, sub-scale and full-scale testing should continue, building on the work that NGRC has begun. Design and testing efforts should focus on technical challenges, such as joint and attachment interfaces, temperature effects, inspection procedures, and fault detection. It is recommended to address technical challenges with targeted research and development efforts, conducted at relevant scale, prior to incorporating composite hybrid technologies within the rotating frame of helicopter transmissions.

Darmstadt, Patrick R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Heritage and Advanced Technology Systems Engineering Lessons Learned from NASA Deep Space Missions

In the design and development of complex spacecraft missions, project teams frequently assume the use of advanced technology systems or heritage systems to enable a mission or reduce the overall mission risk and cost. As projects proceed through the development life cycle, increasingly detailed knowledge of the advanced and heritage systems within the spacecraft and mission environment identifies unanticipated technical issues. Resolving these issues often results in cost overruns and schedule impacts. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Discovery & New Frontiers (D&NF) Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays for 5 missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that optimistic hardware/software inheritance and technology readiness assumptions caused cost and schedule growth for four of the five missions studied. The cost and schedule growth was not found to result from technical hurdles requiring significant technology development. The projects institutional inheritance and technology readiness processes appear to adequately assess technology viability and prevent technical issues from impacting the final mission success. However, the processes do not appear to identify critical issues early enough in the design cycle to ensure project schedules and estimated costs address the inherent risks. In general, the overruns were traceable to: an inadequate understanding of the heritage system s behavior within the proposed spacecraft design and mission environment; an insufficient level of development experience with the heritage system; or an inadequate scoping of the system-wide impacts necessary to implement an advanced technology for space flight applications. The paper summarizes the study's lessons learned in more detail and offers suggestions for improving the project's ability to identify and manage the technology and heritage risks inherent in the design solution.

Barley, Bryan↗

NASA NTRS2010

Heritage Systems Engineering Lessons from NASA Deep Space Missions

In the design and development of complex spacecraft missions, project teams frequently assume the use of advanced technology systems or heritage systems to enable a mission or reduce the overall mission risk and cost. As projects proceed through the development life cycle, increasingly detailed knowledge of the advanced and heritage systems within the spacecraft and mission environment identifies unanticipated technical issues. Resolving these issues often results in cost overruns and schedule impacts. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Discovery & New Frontiers (D&NF) Program Office at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) recently studied cost overruns and schedule delays for 5 missions. The goal was to identify the underlying causes for the overruns and delays, and to develop practical mitigations to assist the D&NF projects in identifying potential risks and controlling the associated impacts to proposed mission costs and schedules. The study found that optimistic hardware/software inheritance and technology readiness assumptions caused cost and schedule growth for all five missions studied. The cost and schedule growth was not found to be the result of technical hurdles requiring significant technology development. The projects institutional inheritance and technology readiness processes appear to adequately assess technology viability and prevent technical issues from impacting the final mission success. However, the processes do not appear to identify critical issues early enough in the design cycle to ensure project schedules and estimated costs address the inherent risks. In general, the overruns were traceable to: an inadequate understanding of the heritage system s behavior within the proposed spacecraft design and mission environment; an insufficient level of development experience with the heritage system; or an inadequate scoping of the systemwide impacts necessary to implement an advanced technology for space flight applications. The paper summarizes the study s lessons learned in more detail and offers suggestions for improving the project s ability to identify and manage the technology and heritage risks inherent in the design solution.

Barley, Bryan↗

NASA NTRS1973

Report to the administrator by the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel on the Skylab program. Volume 1: Summary report

Contractor and NASA technical management for the development and manufacture of the Skylab modules is reviewed with emphasis on the following management controls: configuration and interface management; vendor control; and quality control of workmanship. A review of the modified two-stage Saturn V launch vehicle which focused on modifications to accommodate the Skylab payload; resolution of prior flight anomalies; and changes in personnel and management systems is presented along with an evaluation of the possible age-life and storage problems for the Saturn 1-B launch vehicle. The NASA program management's visibility and control of contractor operations, systems engineering and integration, the review process for the evaluation of design and flight hardware, and the planning process for mission operations are investigated. It is concluded that the technical management system for development and fabrication of the modules, spacecraft, and launch vehicles, the process of design and hardware acceptance reviews, and the risk assessment activities are satisfactory. It is indicated that checkout activity, integrated testing, and preparations for and execution of mission operation require management attention.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2009

A Single Conjunction Risk Assessment Metric: the F-Value

The Conjunction Assessment Team at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center provides conjunction risk assessment for many NASA robotic missions. These risk assessments are based on several figures of merit, such as miss distance, probability of collision, and orbit determination solution quality. However, these individual metrics do not singly capture the overall risk associated with a conjunction, making it difficult for someone without this complete understanding to take action, such as an avoidance maneuver. The goal of this analysis is to introduce a single risk index metric that can easily convey the level of risk without all of the technical details. The proposed index is called the conjunction "F-value." This paper presents the concept of the F-value and the tuning of the metric for use in routine Conjunction Assessment operations.

Frigm, Ryan Clayton↗

NASA NTRS1975

Study of space shuttle orbiter system management computer function. Volume 1: Analysis, baseline design

A system analysis of the shuttle orbiter baseline system management (SM) computer function is performed. This analysis results in an alternative SM design which is also described. The alternative design exhibits several improvements over the baseline, some of which are increased crew usability, improved flexibility, and improved growth potential. The analysis consists of two parts: an application assessment and an implementation assessment. The former is concerned with the SM user needs and design functional aspects. The latter is concerned with design flexibility, reliability, growth potential, and technical risk. The system analysis is supported by several topical investigations. These include: treatment of false alarms, treatment of off-line items, significant interface parameters, and a design evaluation checklist. An in-depth formulation of techniques, concepts, and guidelines for design of automated performance verification is discussed.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1989

Dynamic systems-engineering process - The application of concurrent engineering

A system engineering methodology is described which enables users, particulary NASA and DOD, to accommodate changing needs; incorporate emerging technologies; identify, quantify, and manage system risks; manage evolving functional requirements; track the changing environment; and reduce system life-cycle costs. The approach is a concurrent, dynamic one which starts by constructing a performance model defining the required system functions and the interrelationships. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment of the system elements and their interrelationships is performed, and quantitative analysis of the reliability and maintainability of an engineering system allows its different technical and process failure modes to be identified and their probabilities to be computed. Decision makers can choose technical solutions that maximize an objective function and minimize the probability of failure under resource constraints.

Wiskerchen, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Preparing for Mars: The Evolvable Mars Campaign 'Proving Ground' Approach

As the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) prepares to extend human presence beyond Low Earth Orbit, we are in the early stages of planning missions within the framework of an Evolvable Mars Campaign. Initial missions would be conducted in near-Earth cis-lunar space and would eventually culminate in extended duration crewed missions on the surface of Mars. To enable such exploration missions, critical technologies and capabilities must be identified, developed, and tested. NASA has followed a principled approach to identify critical capabilities and a "Proving Ground" approach is emerging to address testing needs. The Proving Ground is a period subsequent to current International Space Station activities wherein exploration-enabling capabilities and technologies are developed and the foundation is laid for sustained human presence in space. The Proving Ground domain essentially includes missions beyond Low Earth Orbit that will provide increasing mission capability while reducing technical risks. Proving Ground missions also provide valuable experience with deep space operations and support the transition from "Earth-dependence" to "Earth-independence" required for sustainable space exploration. A Technology Development Assessment Team identified a suite of critical technologies needed to support the cadence of exploration missions. Discussions among mission planners, vehicle developers, subject-matter-experts, and technologists were used to identify a minimum but sufficient set of required technologies and capabilities. Within System Maturation Teams, known challenges were identified and expressed as specific performance gaps in critical capabilities, which were then refined and activities required to close these critical gaps were identified. Analysis was performed to identify test and demonstration opportunities for critical technical capabilities across the Proving Ground spectrum of missions. This suite of critical capabilities is expected to provide the foundation required to enable a variety of possible destinations and missions consistent with the Evolvable Mars Campaign.. The International Space Station will be used to the greatest extent possible for exploration capability and technology development. Beyond this, NASA is evaluating a number of options for Proving Ground missions. An "Asteroid Redirect Mission" will demonstrate needed capabilities (e.g., Solar Electric Propulsion) and transportation systems for the crew (i.e., Space Launch System and Orion) and for cargo (i.e., Asteroid Redirect Vehicle). The Mars 2020 mission and follow-on robotic precursor missions will gather Mars surface environment information and will mature technologies. NASA is considering emplacing a small pressurized module in cis-lunar space to support crewed operations of increasing duration and to serve as a platform for critical exploration capabilities testing (e.g., radiation mitigation; extended duration deep space habitation). In addition, "opportunistic mission operations" could demonstrate capabilities not on the Mars critical path that may, nonetheless, enhance exploration operations (e.g., teleoperations, crew assisted Mars sample return). The Proving Ground may also include "pathfinder" missions to test and demonstrate specific capabilities at Mars (e.g., entry, descent, and landing). This paper describes the (1) process used to conduct an architecture-driven technology development assessment, (2) exploration mission critical and supporting capabilities, and (3) approach for addressing test and demonstration opportunities encompassing the spectrum of flight elements and destinations consistent with the Evolvable Mars Campaign.

Bobskill, Marianne R.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Report of the Panel on Computer and Information Technology

Aircraft have become more and more dependent on computers (information processing) for improved performance and safety. It is clear that this activity will grow, since information processing technology has advanced by a factor of 10 every 5 years for the past 35 years and will continue to do so. Breakthroughs in device technology, from vacuum tubes through transistors to integrated circuits, contribute to this rapid pace. This progress is nearly matched by similar, though not as dramatic, advances in numerical software and algorithms. Progress has not been easy. Many technical and nontechnical challenges were surmounted. The outlook is for continued growth in capability but will require surmounting new challenges. The technology forecast presented in this report has been developed by extrapolating current trends and assessing the possibilities of several high-risk research topics. In the process, critical problem areas that require research and development emphasis have been identified. The outlook assumes a positive perspective; the projected capabilities are possible by the year 2000, and adequate resources will be made available to achieve them. Computer and information technology forecasts and the potential impacts of this technology on aeronautics are identified. Critical issues and technical challenges underlying the achievement of forecasted performance and benefits are addressed.

Lundstrom, Stephen F.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Development of Risk Assessment Matrix for NASA Engineering and Safety Center

This paper describes a study, which had as its principal goal the development of a sufficiently detailed 5 x 5 Risk Matrix Scorecard. The purpose of this scorecard is to outline the criteria by which technical issues can be qualitatively and initially prioritized. The tool using this score card has been proposed to be one of the information resources the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) takes into consideration when making decisions with respect to incoming information on safety concerns across the entire NASA agency. The contents of this paper discuss in detail each element of the risk matrix scorecard, definitions for those elements and the rationale behind the development of those definitions. This scorecard development was performed in parallel with the tailoring of the existing Futron Corporation Integrated Risk Management Application (IRMA) software tool. IRMA was tailored to fit NESC needs for evaluating incoming safety concerns and was renamed NESC Assessment Risk Management Application (NAFMA) which is still in developmental phase.

Malone, Roy W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2005

X-43D Conceptual Design and Feasibility Study

NASA s Next Generation Launch Technology (NGLT) Program, in conjunction with the office of the Director of Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E), developed an integrated hypersonic technology demonstration roadmap. This roadmap is an integral part of the National Aerospace Initiative (NAI), a multi-year, multi-agency cooperative effort to invest in and develop, among other things, hypersonic technologies. This roadmap contains key ground and flight demonstrations required along the path to developing a reusable hypersonic space access system. One of the key flight demonstrations required for systems that will operate in the high Mach number regime is the X-43D. As currently conceived, the X-43D is a Mach 15 flight test vehicle that incorporates a hydrogen-fueled scramjet engine. The purpose of the X-43D is to gather high Mach number flight environment and engine operability information which is difficult, if not impossible, to gather on the ground. During 2003, the NGLT Future Hypersonic Flight Demonstration Office initiated a feasibility study on the X-43D. The objective of the study was to develop a baseline conceptual design, assess its performance, and identify the key technical issues. The study also produced a baseline program plan, schedule, and cost, along with a list of key programmatic risks.

Johnson, Donald B.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Coal gasifier cogeneration powerplant project

Industrial cogeneration and utility pr systems were analyzed and a conceptual design study was conducted to evaluate the economic feasibility of a coal gasifier power plant for NASA Lewis Research Center. Site location, plant size, and electric power demand were considered in criteria developed for screening and selecting candidates that could use a wide variety of coals, including that from Ohio. A fluidized bed gasifier concept was chosen as the baseline design and key components of the powerplant were technically assessed. No barriers to environmental acceptability are foreseen. If funded, the powerplant will not only meet the needs of the research center, but will reduce the commercial risk for utilities and industries by fully verifying and demonstrating the technology, thus accelerating commercialization.

Shure, L. I.↗