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Iterative risk analysis approach for assessing and comparing risks associated with proposed Voyager missions
This document consists of the presentation submitted at the Autonomous Rendezvous and Docking (ARD) Conference. It contains three volumes: ARD hardware technology; ARD software technology; and ARD operations. The purpose of this conference is to identify the technologies required for an on orbit demonstration of the ARD, assess the maturity of these technologies, and provide the necessary insight for a quality assessment of the programmatic management, technical, schedule, and cost risks.
The Technical Volume of the Satellite Broadcast System Study is presented. Designs are synthesized for direct sound broadcast satellite systems for HF-, VHF-, L-, and Ku-bands. Methods are developed and used to predict satellite weight, volume, and RF performance for the various concepts considered. Cost and schedule risk assessments are performed to predict time and cost required to implement selected concepts. Technology assessments and tradeoffs are made to identify critical enabling technologies that require development to bring technical risk to acceptable levels for full scale development.
The NASA Engineering & Safety Center (NESC) was established in 2003 to provide an independent technical resource for the resolution of challenging technical problems (through the use of studies, analysis, tests, etc.). Since its inception, NESC has completed nearly 1000 technical assessments for NASA’s Human Exploration and Operation Mission Directorate (HEOMD), Science Mission Directorate (SMD), Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), and Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD). Of the SMD related assessments, several were for the resolution of technical problems, analysis, or studies related to NASA’s Earth science missions in various phases of the project from design to operation. Some of the recent examples of NESC technical support for NASA (or NOAA) Earth science missions have been for: Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS), Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat-II), Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), and the soon to be launched collaboration mission with India, NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR). In this paper, we outline some of the technical challenges faced by these Earth science missions and describe how NESC contributed to their resolution. The case studies cover a wide range of disciplines involving space lidars, radars, electronics, attitude control systems, as well as Micrometeoroid Orbital Debris (MMOD) risk assessment impact to NASA missions. The efforts include strategies for risk mitigation, technical resolution of challenging problems, and failure root cause investigations combined with lessons learned reports to advance discipline knowledge, enhance NASA capabilities, and avoid future problems.
This report presents the Technical Program Plan for Fiscal Years 2023-2027 (FY2023 to FY2027) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program—Flexible Plant Operation and Generation Research Pathway. The objective of this pathway is to carry out the research needed to help nuclear power plants diversify revenue generation for the life of these plants. The purpose of these research and development activities is two fold: (1) to reduce the technical and economic risks of implementing FPOG applications and (2) to provide guidance on relevant safety and environmental operating license reviews, amendments, and renewals. This pathway provides a clear understanding of the benefits of nuclear energy beyond electricity markets. A detailed description of the research and development activities that have been completed and that are planned for FY2023—FY2027 are presented in this report. These activities include completing the development of analysis tools to perform technical and economic assessments of realistic market opportunities for producing secondary energy products near nuclear power plants. They also include developing and demonstrating engineering systems and control concepts to dispatch thermal and electrical power to an industrial user. Additionally, this plan includes developing guidance for addressing potential regulatory and licensing requirements. In addition, the formation, purpose, and activities of a group referred to as the Hydrogen Regulatory Research and Review Group is discussed. An overview is also provided on the potential benefits of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) Bill that will support the commencement of Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs, and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that provides compelling production tax credits for nuclear electricity and clean hydrogen using nuclear energy.
The Recipient will assist with the field validation of one or more risk assessment toolsets through: 1) collaborative research; 2) sharing of relevant datasets, information, and technical insights from field efforts; and 3) other modeling and simulation toolsets as they are developed. Collaborative research could include, but is not limited to: 1) demonstrating use of field data for improved leakage pathway characterization, uncertainty reduction, and risk management and uncertainty workflows; 2) testing and validation of a specific National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) tool using site specific data; and 3) improved modeling or reduced-order modeling of geophysical monitoring.
Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.
LBNL provided technical assistance to Oakland Unified School District (OUSD) through this project in their selection of technologies to support in-person instruction. OUSD considered different technologies to mitigate the aerosol transmission risks of COVID-19: a) Upgrade to higher efficiency air filters in buildings that are served by heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. b) Install portable air cleaners with HEPA (high efficiency particulate air) filters. c) Install ultraviolet germicidal irradiation (UVGI) systems. d) Install bipolar ionization air cleaning systems. LBNL met with OUSD facilities staff to discuss the pros and cons of options a) and c), and cited the lack of proven data on efficacy and discouraged option d). LBNL provided practical guidance on how to select portable air cleaners for classrooms. LBNL met with the boarder school communities to explain OUSD approach to ventilation and filtration, and produced FAQs to answer their questions about the science behind the selected approaches. In addition, LBNL helped OUSD facilities staff to acquire five indoor air quality (IAQ) monitors (AirVisual Pro by IQAir) for measuring carbon dioxide (CO2) and particulate matter (PM) concentrations. These monitors were installed in an elementary school in West Oakland.
Prior research has shown that radio frequency identification (RFID) technology offers potential benefits for streamlining inventory management amidst rising production levels across the NNSA/DOE complex, yet it also presents substantial risks. RFID presents challenges never faced by LANL but also significant opportunities for accelerated inventory identification, real-time locating of assets, and minimized radiation exposure. This risk assessment evaluates the implementation of RFID technology at different Technical Area 55 (TA-55) locations, primarily withing the RLUOB basement and PF-4.
The existing fleet of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) are an important asset in the nation’s portfolio of electrical generating resources. Their continued safe and reliable operation are critical to providing a large source of carbon-free electricity to power the nation’s economy. The United States Department of Energy’s (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program develops the scientific bases, methods, and tools, for the continued safe and economical operation of the nation's commercial NPPs. The Plant Modernization Pathway within LWRS Program focuses on providing guidance to industry on the full-scale implementation of modernization solutions for NPPs that significantly reduce the technical and financial risks associated with modernization. This research is focused on helping the nuclear industry understand how to digitize and digitalize their NPPs so that they can design their modernization solutions to be scalable, sustainable, and integrated both laterally and horizontally within their organization. That is, this research creates a digital transformation in NPPs by reshaping cultural mindsets and by identifying business efficiencies. In partnership with industry, and using four previously established guiding principles for digitalization, this research supported NPP modernization through assessing readiness for digitalization as a means to achieve integrated operations for nuclear. Specifically, this research created an assessment to review an entire organization’s work processes to gather information about the digitalization health of the plant. The assessment tools were administered to plant employees, and the results were used to develop a digitalization plan. The survey assessment identified the optimal candidate processes that would most benefit from a digitalization initiative which were revealed through analytical frameworks. One analysis calculated mean digitalization health indicator scores for all endorsed activities which allowed the researchers to rank and color code the results for easy identification. Individual health indicator scores are also provided, should our industry partner wish to understand these findings according to their own organizational priorities, business considerations and desired end-state. The results were also analyzed from the perspective that organizations are comprised of different types of innovators (e.g., generators, optimizers, conceptualizers, and implementers), which differentially affects the organization’s ability to comprehend and adapt to change (i.e., opportunities to innovate). Understanding the relative composition of innovator types at an NPP allows them to gather insights into the strengths and weaknesses they have in innovating how work is performed. For the utility that partnered with this research team, the results showed that implementers make up the largest portion of respondents and conceptualizers the smallest portion. Knowing the proportion of innovator types gave this organization insights on how they can effectively implement their innovation solutions. Additionally, the results were analyzed from a technical, economic, and risk perspective to identify and quantify work reduction opportunities (WROs). Recognizing that not all cost-saving opportunities are the same, a Technical, Economic and Risk Assessment (TERA) was performed to evaluate WROs to identify areas of greatest potential and lowest risk. The key results from TERA included a digitalization opportunity score for each activity, and a calculation of potential cost savings. These two outputs formed the bases for calculating a priority index and rank for the activities/processes assessed. From the prioritization calculations, TERA can then help the utility 1) decide what digitalization priorities to invest money in implementing and then 2) calculates how much should be invested in the digitalization initiatives selected to achieve cost savings and/or an acceptable return on investment. Last, onsite interviews revealed several inefficiencies in the standard work processes that occur cross-departmentally that are due to the absence of digitized and digitalized processes. Examples of these include time spent scanning paper documents and then uploading the documents electronically, obtaining signatures, and searching for desired information. This represents a digital but not digitalized process. Over 15 opportunities to improve work processes were identified through this multi-method digitalization assessment. The various analytical assessments used (e.g., TERA, digitalization health indicator scores), as well as discussions with the utility partner, corroborated that all the opportunities identified had a strong potential to make work processes more efficient and to improve overall performance of the NPP.
In response to the development of portfolio-wide Climate Action Plans by federal agencies, federal sites are working to incorporate the impacts of climate change into their resilience assessments. However, it can be challenging to incorporate climate change scenarios into resilience assessments given the uncertainty inherent in climate change modeling. Incorporating these factors into a resilience plan requires an understanding of what the different climate scenarios mean, as well as how to estimate potential impacts of climate change on hazard occurrence on a regional, or even local, scale under different scenarios. We discuss approaches to incorporating this data into risk-informed resilience assessment processes, such as those implemented in the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program’s (FEMP) Technical Resilience Navigator (TRN) and the Sustainability Performance Division’s (SPD) Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan (VARP) Risk Assessment Tool. We also describe the climate scenarios and the availability of hazard data for site resilience planning, based on modeling included in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the National Climate Assessment (NCA), and state-level reports. We present examples from the TRN risk assessment and the VARP Risk Assessment Tool to illustrate how sensitivity analysis can be used to incorporate climate change projections into the resilience planning process.
NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is continually looking for ways to reduce the costs and schedule and minimize the technical risks during the development of microgravity programs. One of the more prominent ways to minimize the cost and schedule is to use off-the-shelf hardware (OTS). However, the use of OTS often increases the risk. This paper addresses relevant factors considered during the selection and utilization of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) flight computer processing equipment for the control of space station microgravity experiments. The paper will also discuss how to minimize the technical risks when using COTS processing hardware. Two microgravity experiments for which the COTS processing equipment is being evaluated for are the Equiaxed Dendritic Solidification Experiment (EDSE) and the Self-diffusion in Liquid Elements (SDLE) experiment. Since MSFC is the lead center for Microgravity research, EDSE and SDLE processor selection will be closely watched by other experiments that are being designed to meet payload carrier requirements. This includes the payload carriers planned for the International Space Station (ISS). The purpose of EDSE is to continue to investigate microstructural evolution of, and thermal interactions between multiple dendrites growing under diffusion controlled conditions. The purpose of SDLE is to determine accurate self-diffusivity data as a function of temperature for liquid elements selected as representative of class-like structures. In 1999 MSFC initiated a Center Director's Discretionary Fund (CDDF) effort to investigate and determine the optimal commercial data bus architecture that could lead to faster, better, and lower cost data acquisition systems for the control of microgravity experiments. As part of this effort various commercial data acquisition systems were acquired and evaluated. This included equipment with various form factors, (3U, 6U, others) and equipment that utilized various bus structures, (VME, PC104, STD bus). This evaluation of hardware was performed in conjunction with a trade study that considered over twenty (20) different factors relevant to the selection of an optimum design approach. These factors included; safety, sizing and timing, radiation hardness and single event upset, power consumption, heat dissipation, size and volume, expected service life, maintainability, heritage, operating systems, requirements for software reuse, availability of compatible interface boards, relative cost, schedule, reliability, EMI/EMC factors, "hot swap" capability, standards for conduction cooling, I/O capabilities, unique carrier requirements and operating system considerations. The approach to evaluate Safety as part of this study included a review of the Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA) for each of the experiment designs and a determination of how each hazard could be addressed and eliminated when different processors were selected. This included evaluating various design approaches and trade-offs between fault tolerant designs and fail-safe designs in accordance with NSTS 1700.7B. This will include the results of radiation testing where available. Various operating systems, such as VxWorks, Linux, QNX, and Embedded NT are evaluated and the advantages and disadvantages of their utilization are also addressed. Design implementation strategies for the various operating systems are considered and discussed. This paper presents the results and recommendations from this trade study. Preliminary conclusions from this study are that safety concerns from lack or radiation testing on COTS equipment can be addressed by additional testing and design considerations, the PC104 bus provided adequate I/O for the SDLE and EDSE microgravity experiments, and PC104 bus components offered significant advantages over VME and cPCI for weight and space reductions.
Use of heritage and new technology is necessary/enabling to implementing small, low cost missions, yet overruns decrease the ability to sustain future mission flight rates The majority of the cost growth drivers seen in the D&NF study were embedded early during formulation phase and later realized during the development and I&T phases Cost drivers can be avoided or significantly decreased by project management and SE emphasis on early identification of risks and realistic analyses SE processes that emphasize an assessment of technology within the mission system to identify technical issues in the design or operational use of the technology. Realistic assessment of new and heritage spacecraft technology assumptions , identification of risks and mitigation strategies. Realistic estimates of effort required to inherit existing or qualify new technology, identification of risks to estimates and develop mitigation strategies. Allocation of project reserves for risk-based mitigation strategies of each individual area of heritage or new technology. Careful tailoring of inheritance processes to ensure due diligence.
The end-to-end verification of a spacecraft photovoltaic power generation system requires light! Specifically, the standard practice for doing so is the Large Area Pulsed Solar Simulation (LAPSS). A LAPSS test can characterize a photovoltaic system's efficiency via its response to rapidly applied impulses of simulated sunlight. However, a Class D program on a constrained budget and schedule may not have the resources to ship an entire satellite for a LAPSS test alone. Such was the case with the Lunar Atmospheric and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) program, which was also averse to the risk of hardware damage during shipment. When the Electrical Power System (EPS) team was denied a spacecraft-level LAPSS test, the lack of an end-to-end power generation test elevated to a project-level technical risk. The team pulled together very limited resources to not only eliminate the risk, but build a process to monitor the health of the system through mission operations. We discuss a process for performing a low-cost, end-to-end test of the LADEE photovoltaic system. The approach combines system-level functional test, panel-level performance results, and periodic inspection (and repair) up until launch. Following launch, mission operations tools are utilized to assess system performance based on a scant amount of data. The process starts in manufacturing at the subcontractor. The panel manufacturer provides functional test and LAPSS data on each individual panel. We apply an initial assumption that the per-panel performance is sufficient to meet the power generation requirements. The manufacturer's data is also carried as the performance allocation for each panel during EPS system modeling and initial mission operations. During integration and test, a high-power, professional theater lamp system provides simulated sunlight to each panel on the spacecraft, thereby permitting a true end-to-end system test. A passing test results in a step response to nearly full-rated current at the appropriate solar array switch in the power system. A metal-halide bulb, infrared imagers, and onboard spacecraft measurements are utilized to minimize risk of thermal damage during test. Data is provided to support test results for both passing and marginal panels. Prior to encapsulation in the launch vehicle, each panel is inspected for damage by the panel manufacturer. Cracked cells or other damage is amended on-site. Because the photovoltaic test system is inexpensive and portable, each repaired panel can be re-verified immediately. Post-launch, the photovoltaic system is again characterized for per-panel deviations from the manufacturer's performance test. This proved especially tricky as the LADEE spacecraft performs only one current measurement on the entire array. The algorithm for Matlab tools to assess panel performance based on spacecraft attitude is discussed. While not as precise and comprehensive as LAPSS, the LADEE approach leverages minimal resources into an ongoing assessment program that can be applied through numerous stages of the mission. The project takes a true Class D approach in assessing the technical value of a spacecraft level performance test versus the programmatic risk of shipping the spacecraft to another facility. The resources required are a fraction of that for a LAPSS test, and is easy to repeat. Further, the test equipment can be handed down to future projects without building an on-site facility.
Global, real-time observations of the speed and direction of winds over the oceans ocean surface vector winds [OSVW]) are high priority measurements for National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) weather forecasting, prediction, and hazard warning communities. At present, these data are provided by the experimental National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) QuikSCAT satellite sensor, which is operating well beyond its design lifetime. To continue to meet the Nation’s need for operational OSVW observations beyond QuikSCAT, NOAA tasked the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to design and provide costs for a set of QuikSCAT Follow-On mission options. Three scenarios were examined: 1) a QuikSCAT Replacement mission with capabilities commensurate to QuikSCAT, 2) a next-generation Extended Ocean Vector Winds Mission (XOVWM), as recommended in the National Research Council’s decadal survey to provide significantly improved all-weather, allwind, high spatial resolution measurements, and 3) an XOVWM Constellation consisting of two XOVWM observatories to provide improved temporal resolution. In parallel, NOAA asked its users to provide a quantitative assessment of each option’s benefit to NOAA. This report presents the JPL design, risk assessment, and cost for each of three options, together with a summary of the NOAA users’ benefit assessment. The report concludes that though all options are technically feasible for immediate implementation and have a risk posture consistent with a NOAA operational mission, the XOVWM options provide significant observational benefits. While a QuikSCAT Replacement option would continue current operational measurement capabilities, there is a strong and clearly defined operational need for improved capabilities in high winds (e.g., hurricanes or extra-tropical cyclones), heavy precipitation, and near coasts to enable significantly improved severe storm and coastal hazard forecasts, which are provided only by the XOVWM options.
An Executive Summary of the Satellite Voice Broadcast System Study designs are synthesized for direct sound broadcast satellite systems for HF-, VHF-, and Ku-bands. Methods are developed and used to predict satellite weight, volume, and RF performance for the various concepts considered. Cost and schedule risk assessments are performed to predict time and cost required to implement selected concepts. Technology assessments and tradeoffs are made to identify critical enabling technologies that require development to bring technical risk to acceptable levels for full scale development.
Risk management has received considerable attention in the X-33 and Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) program due to aggressive schedules, limited funding. and planned private investment to develop the commercial VentureStar vehicle. As an X-33 and RLV team member and main propulsion supplier, Boeing Rocketdyn Propulsion and Power has addressed risk through a methodical application of systems engineering in identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks. The methods employed involve rigorous risk mitigation planning early in development, continuous risk monitoring and assessment during the course of development, and the systematic verification of compliance with technical requirements prior to delivery. In addition, an engine system reliability analysis was conducted to reduce risk. In July 1996, NASA selected Lockheed Martin's "Skunk Works" (LMSW) as the lead contractor for the X-33 and RLV program. The X-33 vehicle is a half-scale pathfinder for the full-scale RLV. The LMSW RLV design is a lifting body shaped vehicle employing linear aerospike engine provided propulsion. The initial X-33 flight is planned for the summer of 2000, and the initial VentureStar flight is planned for between 2005 and 2007.
This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface communication system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents an initial high-level safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the C-band communication system after the profile is finalized and system rollout timing is determined. A security risk assessment has been performed by NASA as a parallel activity. While safety analysis is concerned with a prevention of accidental errors and failures, the security threat analysis focuses on deliberate attacks. Both processes identify the events that affect operation of the system; and from a safety perspective the security threats may present safety risks.