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Chapter 8 - Challenges and Opportunities for International Trade in Forest Biomass. In the book Mobilisation of Forest Bioenergy in the Boreal and Temperate Biomes.

In an effort to reduce fossil fuel consumption, the use of woody biomass for heat and power generation is growing. Key destination markets will be countries within the European Union (EU), particularly the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands, Denmark, and Belgium. While demand from Asia (particularly South Korea and Japan) will also increase, it will continue to play a secondary role. Across the EU, adoption of sustainability criteria for forest biomass based on the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) 2009/28/EC or similar criteria is likely. In the UK, the largest market for traded wood pellets, such criteria have already been proposed. As of 2015, only forest biomass that achieves at least a 60% reduction in GHG emissions relative to the EU fossil fuel electricity average can be used for bioenergy production, and proof of Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) is required. In the Netherlands, the energy industry and non-governmental organizations achieved principal agreement on sustainability criteria for solid biomass, but issues of compliance testing and monitoring must still be addressed. In Flemish Belgium, the sustainability requirements for bioliquids may soon be applied to woody biomass. In Denmark, a voluntary industry agreement is set to ensure that all bioenergy production by 2019 is conducted sustainably. At present, internationally traded wood pellets from temperate and boreal biomes originate primarily from the United States (US), Canada, and Russia. Among these, Canada offers large stretches of SFM-certified forests, but the US Southeast has seen the strongest increase in wood pellet production and export in recent years. The expansion of pellet production in the US Southeast is mainly linked to available forest inventory (pulpwood in particular)and the competitive advantage gained by the relative proximity to demand markets in the EU. In addition to the mobilization barriers observed in supply chains at the local and national scale, limitations in the supply of forest biomass for international trade will be influenced by regulatory measures that could restrict the trade of specific feedstock fractions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Observed and modeled patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the structure of the trade-wind layer

We present patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the trade-wind boundary layer structure using long-term measurements at a site representative of dynamical regimes with moderate subsidence or weak ascent. We compare these with ECMWF’s Integrated Forecast System and 10 CMIP5 models. By using single-time step output at a single location, we find that models can produce a fairly realistic trade-wind layer structure in long-term means, but with unrealistic variability at shorter-time scales. The unrealistic variability in modeled cloudiness near the lifting condensation level (LCL) is due to stronger than observed relationships with mixed-layer relative humidity (RH) and temperature stratification at the mixed-layer top. Those relationships are weak in observations, or even of opposite sign, which can be explained by a negative feedback of convection on cloudiness. Cloudiness near cumulus tops at the tradewind inversion instead varies more pronouncedly in observations on monthly time scales, whereby larger cloudiness relates to larger surface winds and stronger trade-wind inversions. However, these parameters appear to be a prerequisite, rather than strong controlling factors on cloudiness, because they do not explain submonthly variations in cloudiness. Models underestimate the strength of these relationships and diverge in particular in their responses to large-scale vertical motion. No model stands out by reproducing the observed behavior in all respects. As a result, these findings suggest that climate models do not realistically represent the physical processes that underlie the coupling between trade-wind clouds and their environments in present-day climate, which is relevant for how we interpret modeled cloud feedbacks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A bilevel multistage stochastic self-scheduling model with indivisibilities for trading in the continuous intraday electricity market

In this paper, we study the profit maximization problem of a virtual power plant trading in the continuous intraday electricity market. Our virtual power plant model is compatible with renewable, and thermal assets, covering a range of virtual power plants currently participating in energy markets. We model the trading problem as a bilevel multistage stochastic program. The upper level of the problem accounts for the profit maximization of the virtual power plant with explicit modeling of the technical constraints of the operational status of the thermal power plant including minimum start-up and shut-down times, ramp-up and ramp-down rates, and minimum generation level. The upper level also decides which continuous and indivisible (fill-or-kill) orders are submitted to the market. The lower-level problem accounts for the clearing of the continuous intraday market, i.e., matching of buy and sell orders. Because of the presence of fill-or-kill orders, the lower-level problem is mixed-integer, which prevents its direct conversion to a single-level problem using duality. In order to solve this challenging problem, we develop a convex-hull extended formulation for the lower-level problem, apply duality theory to obtain a single-level stochastic equivalent formulation, and employ McCormick envelopes to turn the problem into a multistage stochastic mixed-integer linear problem, which we solve using the stochastic dual dynamic integer programming algorithm. We conduct numerical experiments and analyze the optimal trading behavior of a virtual power plant trading in an ideal continuous market without arbitrage.

Bilevel multistage stochastic programming problem↗

Transboundary health impacts of transported global air pollution and international trade

Millions of people die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor air pollution1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Some studies have estimated premature mortality related to local sources of air pollution6, 7, but local air quality can also be affected by atmospheric transport of pollution from distant sources8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18. International trade is contributing to the globalization of emission and pollution as a result of the production of goods (and their associated emissions) in one region for consumption in another region14, 19, 20, 21, 22. The effects of international trade on air pollutant emissions23, air quality14 and health24 have been investigated regionally, but a combined, global assessment of the health impacts related to international trade and the transport of atmospheric air pollution is lacking. Here we combine four global models to estimate premature mortality caused by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution as a result of atmospheric transport and the production and consumption of goods and services in different world regions. We find that, of the 3.45 million premature deaths related to PM2.5 pollution in 2007 worldwide, about 12 per cent (411,100 deaths) were related to air pollutants emitted in a region of the world other than that in which the death occurred, and about 22 per cent (762,400 deaths) were associated with goods and services produced in one region for consumption in another. For example, PM2.5 pollution produced in China in 2007 is linked to more than 64,800 premature deaths in regions other than China, including more than 3,100 premature deaths in western Europe and the USA; on the other hand, consumption in western Europe and the USA is linked to more than 108,600 premature deaths in China. Our results reveal that the transboundary health impacts of PM2.5 pollution associated with international trade are greater than those associated with long-distance atmospheric pollutant transport.

Zhang, Qiang↗

Eliciting the impacts of cellular noise on metabolic trade-offs by quantitative mass imaging

Metabolic trade-offs between growth and productivity are key constraints in metabolic engineering and adaptive evolution; however, how cellular noise impacts these trade offs and drives the emergence of subpopulations with distinct resource allocation strategies, remains largely unknown. Here, we introduce a single-cell strategy for quantifying the trade-offs between triacylglycerol production and growth in the oleaginous microorganism Yarrowia lipolytica. The strategy relies on high-throughput quantitative-phase imaging and, enabled by nanoscale secondary ion mass spectrometry analyses and dedicated image processing, allows us to image how resources are partitioned between growth and productivity. Enhanced precision over population-averaging biotechnologies and conventional microscopy demonstrates how cellular noise impacts growth and productivity differently. As such, subpopulations with distinct metabolic trade-offs emerge, with notable impacts on strain performance and robustness. By quantifying autophagic catabolic fluxes under nutrient-limiting conditions, we discover an underlying cell-to-cell heterogeneity in protein and fatty-acid recycling, unmasking a potential bet-hedging survival strategy under starvation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Ecological trade-offs drive phenotypic and genetic differentiation of Arabidopsis thaliana in Europe

Plant diversity is shaped by trade-offs between traits related to competitive ability, propagule dispersal, and stress resistance. However, we still lack a clear understanding of how these trade-offs influence species distribution and population dynamics. In Arabidopsis thaliana , recent genetic analyses revealed a group of cosmopolitan genotypes that successfully recolonized Europe from its center after the last glaciation, excluding older (relict) lineages from the distribution except for their north and south margins. Here, we tested the hypothesis that cosmopolitans expanded due to higher colonization ability, while relicts persisted at the margins due to higher tolerance to competition and/or stress. We compared the phenotypic and genetic differentiation between 71 European genotypes originating from the center, and the south and north margins. We showed that a trade-off between plant fecundity and seed mass shapes the differentiation of A. thaliana in Europe, suggesting that the success of the cosmopolitan groups could be explained by their high dispersal ability. However, at both north and south margins, we found evidence of selection for alleles conferring low dispersal but highly competitive and stress-resistance abilities. This study sheds light on the role of ecological trade-offs as evolutionary drivers of the distribution and dynamics of plant populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Root traits explain plant species distributions along climatic gradients yet challenge the nature of ecological trade-offs

Ecological theory is built on trade-offs, where trait differences among species evolved as adaptations to different environments. Trade-offs are often assumed to be bidirectional, where opposite ends of a gradient in trait values confer advantages in different environments. However, unidirectional benefits could be widespread if extreme trait values confer advantages at one end of an environmental gradient, whereas a wide range of trait values are equally beneficial at the other end. Here, we show that root traits explain species occurrences along broad gradients of temperature and water availability, but model predictions only resembled trade-offs in two out of 24 models. Forest species with low specific root length and high root tissue density (RTD) were more likely to occur in warm climates but species with high specific root length and low RTD were more likely to occur in cold climates. Unidirectional benefits were more prevalent than trade-offs: for example, species with large-diameter roots and high RTD were more commonly associated with dry climates, but species with the opposite trait values were not associated with wet climates. Directional selection for traits consistently occurred in cold or dry climates, whereas a diversity of root trait values were equally viable in warm or wet climates. Explicit integration of unidirectional benefits into ecological theory is needed to advance our understanding of the consequences of trait variation on species responses to environmental change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Persistent trade-offs balance competition and colonization across centuries

When a microbe colonizes a host, it must both establish infection and outcompete other organisms. Short-term experiments show that gains in competitive ability can reduce colonization, creating trade-offs, but whether microbes resolve these conflicts over long evolutionary timescales is unknown. We show that a trade-off between competitive killing and host colonization has been stably maintained for centuries in natural Pseudomonas populations infecting Arabidopsis thaliana. Tailocins—phage-derived weapons—provide strong competitive advantages, yet their production reduces colonization success, explaining why the most broadly lethal variants remain rare. Genomic surveys and historical genomes spanning two centuries reveal that the polymorphisms underlying this trade-off have persisted across 10⁵-10⁶ generations. Understanding such long-lived constraints can inform antimicrobial strategies that exploit evolutionary trade-offs.

Backman, Talia↗

Improving I/O-aware Workflow Scheduling via Data Flow Characterization and trade-off Analysis

The scientific computing paradigm has transitioned from compute-intensive to I/O-intensive and memory-intensive in the past decade, especially when data-driven science has become common practice. Numerous empirical I/O-aware scheduling optimizations have been developed by incorporating I/O capacity and bandwidth as constraints into scheduling. Unfortunately, there is a lack of data flow (I/O) characterization tool and an understanding of trade-offs between concurrency, locality, and I/O bandwidth. To bridge the gap, this work 1) presents a set of descriptors to characterize, organize, and visualize I/O profiles, including flow size, I/O bandwidth, and operation count, which group data flows by I/O types, tasks, and files; 2) proposes an I/O Roofline model-based trade-off analysis to find the optimal trade-off between flow operational intensity, concurrency, and flow performance. The I/O descriptors generate useful insights into complicated I/O behaviors, suggesting distinct concurrency, storage, and scheduling to be used by types, tasks, and files. The proposed trade-off analysis guides scheduling decisions that generate resource assignment with the best flow parallelism. We evaluate our I/O-aware scheduling methodology on a highly I/O-intensive workflow–1000 Genomes. The experimental results demonstrate speedups of up to 2.4× compared to the state-of-the- art methods.

Guo, Luanzheng [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗

Quantitative Trade-Off in Distributed Secondary Control for Autonomous AC Microgrids

In this paper, we propose to quantify the trade-off between voltage regulation and reactive power sharing in autonomous AC microgrids with distributed secondary control. It is known that voltage regulation and reactive power sharing in droop-controlled autonomous AC microgrids are two conflicting control objectives that present a natural trade-off between voltage regulation towards the voltage magnitude reference and reactive power sharing accuracy. This trade-off is commonly shown qualitatively without sufficient quantification. In this work, to quantify the trade-off between the two objectives, we focus on distributed secondary control and utilize regression and polynomial surface fitting to identify the requisite parameter area to satisfy the predefined error bands for voltage magnitude regulation and reactive power sharing. Extensive case studies are presented to validate the proposed method.

autonomous AC microgrids↗

Coordinated Market Design for Peer-to-Peer Energy Trade and Ancillary Services in Distribution Grids

A novel peer-to-peer (P2P) market design is proposed in this work for the distribution grid level. Envisioning that the grid constraints violations are the major challenge for P2P energy sharing, we propose they are handled through the ancillary service (AS) market. By calculating the decomposable distribution locational marginal prices (DLMPs), the essential price signals of procuring AS can be recovered to determine the grid usage prices (GUPs) to each P2P transaction. Hence, the GUPs, due to their decomposable properties, act as incentive signals for the P2P market to support the grid operation in terms of loss reduction, voltage support and congestion management. The proposed market design comprises: i) an interactive market design of P2P trade & AS and, ii) a fully decentralized peer-centric market clearing model for P2P energy trade. The duality analysis provides the composition of market equilibrium prices of P2P trading and their interpretations. The case studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed P2P trade to support grid operational objectives.

Zhang, Kai↗

Core Model Proposal #338: Regional Forest Markets and Crop Trade Updates

The main purpose of this proposal is to update the forest (i.e., Roundwood) trade modeling in GCAM from HOV (Heckscher-Ohlin Vanek) based fully integrated world market to segmented regional markets using the logit-based Armington approach. We also improve agricultural trade-related data, update trade (Armington) parameters based on literature information, and allow elastic forest demand responses. This CMP is an extension of previous GCAM agricultural trade CMPs (289 & 312).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Assessing the interactions among U.S. climate policy, biomass energy, and agricultural trade

Energy from biomass is potentially an important contributor to U.S. climate change mitigation efforts. However, an important consideration to large-scale implementation of bioenergy is that the production of biomass competes with other uses of land. This includes traditionally economically productive uses, such as agriculture and forest products, as well as storage of carbon in forests and non-commercial lands. In addition, in the future, biomass may be more easily traded, meaning that increased U.S. reliance on bioenergy could come with it greater reliance on imported energy. Several approaches could be implemented to address these issues, including limits on U.S. biomass imports and protection of U.S. and global forests. This paper explores these dimensions of bioenergy’s role in U.S. climate policy and the relationship to these alternative measures for ameliorating the trade and land use consequences of bioenergy. It first demonstrates that widespread use of biomass in the U.S. could lead to imports; and it highlights that the relative stringency of domestic and international carbon mitigation policy will heavily influence the degree to which it is imported. Next, it demonstrates that while limiting biomass imports would prevent any reliance on other countries for this energy supply, it would most likely alter the balance of trade in other agricultural products against which biomass competes; for example, it might turn the U.S. from a corn exporter to a corn importer. Finally, it shows that increasing efforts to protect both U.S. and international forests could also affect the balance of trade in other agricultural products.

Wise, Marshall A.↗

Cycle O(CY1991) NLS trade studies and analyses report. Book 2, part 2: Propulsion

This report documents the propulsion system tasks performed in support of the National Launch System (NLS) Cycle O preliminary design activities. The report includes trades and analyses covering the following subjects: (1) Maximum Tank Stretch Study; (2) No LOX Bleed Performance Analysis; (3) LOX Bleed Trade Study; (4) LO2 Tank Pressure Limits; (5) LOX Tank Pressurization System Using Helium; (6) Space Transportation Main Engine (STME) Heat Exchanger Performance; (7) LH2 Passive Recirculation Performance Analysis; (8) LH2 Bleed/Recirculation Study; (9) LH2 Tank Pressure Limits; and (10) LH2 Pressurization System. For each trade study an executive summary and a detailed trade study are provided. For the convenience of the reader, a separate section containing a compilation of only the executive summaries is also provided.

Cronin, R.↗

Straw man trade between multi-junction, gallium arsenide, and silicon solar cells

Multi-junction (MJ), gallium arsenide (GaAs), and silicon (Si) solar cells have respective test efficiencies of approximately 24%, 18.5% and 14.8%. Multi-junction and gallium arsenide solar cells weigh more than silicon solar cells and cost approximately five times as much per unit power at the cell level. A straw man trade is performed for the TRMM spacecraft to determine which of these cell types would have offered an overall performance and price advantage to the spacecraft. A straw man trade is also performed for the multi-junction cells under the assumption that they will cost over ten times that of silicon cells at the cell level. The trade shows that the TRMM project, less the cost of the instrument, ground systems and mission operations, would spend approximately $552 thousand dollars per kilogram to launch and service science in the case of the spacecraft equipped with silicon solar cells. If these cells are changed out for gallium arsenide solar cells, an additional 31 kilograms of science can be launched and serviced at a price of approximately $90 thousand per kilogram. The weight reduction is shown to derive from the smaller area of the array and hence reductions in the weight of the array substrate and supporting structure. If the silicon solar cells are changed out for multi-junction solar cells, an additional 45 kilograms of science above the silicon base line can be launched and serviced at a price of approximately $58 thousand per kilogram. The trade shows that even if the multi-junction arrays are priced over ten times that of silicon cells, a price that is much higher than projected, that the additional 45 kilograms of science are launched and serviced at $182 thousand per kilogram. This is still much less than original $552 thousand per kilogram to launch and service the science. Data and qualitative factors are presented to show that these figures are subject to a great deal of uncertainty. Nonetheless, the benefit of the higher efficiency solar cells for TRMM is far greater than the uncertainties in the analysis.

Gaddy, Edward M.↗

Cost Trade Between Multi-Junction, Gallium Arsenide, and Silicon Solar Cells

Multi-junction (MJ), gallium arsenide (GaAs), and silicon (Si) solar cells have respective test efficiencies of approximately 24%, 18.5% and 14.8%. Multi-junction and gallium arsenide solar cells weigh more than silicon solar 2 cells and cost approximately five times as much per unit power at the cell level. A trade is performed for the TRMM spacecraft to determine which of these cell types would have offered an overall performance and price advantage to the spacecraft. A trade is also performed for the multi-junction cells under the assumption that they will cost over ten times that of silicon cells at the cell level. The trade shows that the TRMM project, less the cost of the instrument, ground systems and mission operations, would spend approximately $552,000 dollars per kilogram to launch and suppon3science in the case of the spacecraft equipped with silicon solar cells. If these cells are changed out for gallium arsenide solar cells, an additional 31 kilograms of science can be launched and serviced at a price of approximately $90 thousand per kilogram. The weight reduction is shown to derive from the smaller area of the array and hence reductions in the weight of the array substrate and supporting structure. ff the silicon solar cells are changed out for multi-junction solar cells, an additional 45 kilograms of science above the silicon base line can be launched and supported at a price of approximately $58,000 per kilogram. The trade shows that even if the multi-junction cells are priced over ten times that of silicon cells, a price that is much higher than projected, that the additional 45 kilograms of science are launched and serviced at $180,000 per kilogram. This is still much less than the original $552,000 per kilogram to launch and service the science. Data and qualitative factors are presented to show that these figures are subject to a great deal of uncertainty. Nonetheless, the benefit of the higher efficiency solar cells for TRMM is far greater than the uncertainties in the analysis.

Gaddy, Edward M.↗

Results of the Particulate Contamination Control Trade Study for Space Suit Life Support Development

As the United States plans to return astronauts to the moon and eventually to Mars, designing the most effective, efficient, and robust space suit life support system that will operate successfully in these dusty environments is vital. There is some knowledge of the contaminants and level of infiltration expected from the Lunar and Mars dust, however risk mitigation strategies and filtration designs to prevent contamination within the space suit life support system are still undefined. A trade study was initiated to identify and address these concerns, and to develop new requirements for the Constellation Space Suit Element (CSSE) Portable Life Support System (PLSS). This trade study investigates historical methods of particulate contamination control in space suits and vehicles, and evaluated the possibility of using commercial technologies for this application. In addition, the trade study examined potential filtration designs. This paper summarizes the results of this trade study.

Cognata, Thomas J.↗

Human/Automation Trade Methodology for the Moon, Mars and Beyond

It is possible to create a consistent trade methodology that can characterize operations model alternatives for crewed exploration missions. For example, a trade-space that is organized around the objective of maximizing Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) independence would have the input as a classification of the category of analysis to be conducted or decision to be made, and a commitment to a detailed point in a mission profile during which the analysis or decision is to be made. For example, does the decision have to do with crew activity planning, or life support? Is the mission phase trans-Earth injection, cruise, or lunar descent? Different kinds of decision analysis of the trade-space between human and automated decisions will occurs at different points in a mission's profile. The necessary objectives at a given point in time during a mission will call for different kinds of response with respect to where and how computers and automation are expected to help provide an accurate, safe, and timely response. In this paper, a consistent methodology for assessing the trades between human and automated decisions on-board will be presented and various examples discussed.

Korsmeyer, David J.↗