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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Future land use threats to range-restricted fish species in the United States

Land use change is one major threat to freshwater biodiversity, and land use change scenarios can help to assess threats from future land use change, thereby guiding proactive conservation decisions. Furthermore, our goal was to identify which range-restricted freshwater fish species are most likely to be affected by land use change and to determine where threats to these species from future land use change in the conterminous United States are most pronounced.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Protecting water and wastewater utilities from cyber‐physical threats

Abstract Recent events have highlighted the need to address cybersecurity threats to systems supporting critical infrastructure and federal information systems which are evolving and growing. These threats have become ubiquitous in the United States, and throughout the world. Many information and communications technology (ICT) devices and other components are interdependent so that disruption of one component may have a negative, cascading effect on others. In the United States, the Federal role in cyber‐security has been debated for more than a decade but creating a policy is complicated because in the United States, State and local governments are the major institutions responsible for providing services to their populations. It is important that critical infrastructure such as Publically Owned Treatment Works (POTWs) and Public Water Systems (PWSs) adopt suitable countermeasures to prevent or minimise the consequences of cyber‐attacks. This paper discusses both technological and procedural techniques that can be used to protect against cyber‐threats.

Clark, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Global Threat Reduction Initiative (GTRI): PNNL GTRI Convert Program (Program Management Plan)

The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Global Threat Reduction Initiative (GTRI) strategic mission includes efforts to reduce and protect vulnerable nuclear and radiological material at civilian sites around the world. Converting research reactors from using highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low enriched uranium (LEU) was originally started in 1978 as the Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors Program under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science. In 2004, the NNSA established the GTRI by combining five existing programs, including the Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors Program, under one combined threat reduction initiative to focus on one common mission. Within this strategic mission, the GTRI has three goals that provide a comprehensive approach to achieving this mission: 1) convert research reactors from using HEU to LEU, 2) remove or dispose of excess nuclear and radiological materials, and 3) protect nuclear and radiological material from theft and sabotage. The GTRI Convert mission seeks to minimize and, to the extent possible, eliminate HEU in civilian applications throughout the world through the conversion of research reactors. Once that need is eliminated, remaining HEU fresh and spent fuel can be removed or disposed of by GTRI’s Remove activities. Attainment of the Convert objectives will permanently reduce the availability and affiliated transactions of HEU materials, thus eliminating a substantial threat to proliferation. GTRI’s Convert mission is comprised of two sub-programs: the GTRI Reactor Conversion Program and the Mo-99 Capability Development Project.

Cleary, Eugene J.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Remixing the ‘Appropriate Mix’: Reassessing NATO’s Deterrence and Defense Posture in the Face of New Threats

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the countries of Europe face a renewed challenge from the east vis-à-vis the Putin regime in Moscow. In the face of these new challenges, NATO must reconsider its deterrence and defense posture in order to deter conflict in Europe. Unfortunately, Russian attempts to rewrite the rules of the post-Cold War international order by force have been coupled with nuclear saber rattling and overt nuclear threats. Russia’s nuclear threats, in addition to provocative changes to Russia’s nuclear posture in its Military Doctrine, are methods to make up for Russia’s conventional military inferiority relative to NATO and the United States. Some have described Moscow’s actions as laying the groundwork for a nuclear coercion strategy. While the decrease in the nuclear arsenals of Russia and the United States has reduced the likelihood of nuclear annihilation to an all-time low since the height of the Cold War, Russia’s nuclear coercion strategy is increasing the probability of nuclear employment in Europe. The probability of nuclear use is compounded by Russia’s tremendous local military advantage around its periphery in spite of U.S. global military primacy. This military advantage increases the incentive to use military force if Russian decision-makers conclude that a quick military victory is possible, or if Russian leaders miscalculate based on an incorrect assessment of military force balance or resolve of their adversary. The integration of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia (referred to as the Baltics in this paper) into the NATO alliance in 2004 makes Russia’s military advantage in its periphery increasingly relevant. Each NATO state is required to assist any NATO state that comes under attack per Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty. The Baltic states’ proximity to Russia, their weak indigenous militaries, their former status as Soviet Republics, large population of ethnic Russians, and Russian President Vladimir V. Putin’s claim that he will protect Russians wherever they are makes the Baltics the most likely flashpoint for conflict between NATO and Russia. This analysis will tackle the problem of reshaping NATO’s deterrence and defense posture in light of the new Russian threat and its obligation to defend its most vulnerable members. Specifically, it will assess the suitability of NATO’s “appropriate mix” of nuclear, conventional, and missile defense capabilities to deterring conventional conflict with Russia and, if conventional deterrence fails, preventing Russian nuclear escalation. It will use a scenario-based approach informed by a deterrence model to explore how changes to NATO’s posture and policy could impact the deterrence of Russian aggression.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2017

External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA)

Two risk assessment algorithms and philosophies have been augmented and combined to form a new algorit hm, the External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA), that allows for effective and statistically sound analysis of external threat sources in relation to individual attack methods . In addition to the attack method use probability and the attack method employment consequence, t he concept of defining threat sources is added to the risk assessment process. Sample data is tabulated and depicted in radar plots and bar graphs for algorithm demonstration purposes. The largest success of ExTRAA is its ability to visualize the kind of r isk posed in a given situation using the radar plot method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Assessing Detecting and Deterring the Threat of Maritime Nuclear and Radiological Smuggling in the Western Indian Ocean Region

This paper proposes that current maritime smuggling routes in the western Indian Ocean region are similar to those in the past and that the motivations of terrorist groups and the presence of radioactive sources in the Indian Ocean littoral and other states present a significant security threat. The majority of regional terrorist groups have a hybrid structure, piggybacking on criminal activity to fund their terror activities. Additionally, states have used maritime routes in the Indian Ocean region to transport nuclear materials and missiles. Thus, the maritime dimension of such threats remains, and may be increasing. This paper focuses on issues, motivations, pathways, and methods to detect and interdict nuclear and radiological trafficking. It analyzes the potential use of maritime technology applications for radiation detection and presents recommendations for states and multinational nonproliferation advocacy organizations to address the threat in the Indian Ocean region.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2019

Support for Reactor Operators in Case of Cyber-Security Threats (NEUP Final Report)

Increasing use of digital technology in nuclear power plants (NPPs) poses cyber-security as a crucial threat to public safety and to continuous energy production. Cyber-security risks are comprised of complex known and unknown interactions between various entities, system vulnerabilities, network protocols, human users and malicious attacks. There is little understanding or research geared towards plant operators’ response under cyber-security threats and operational procedures to cope with such threats. This is particularly critical when a cyber-security event masquerades as a safety incident or an evolving accident. Instead of leading operators to the remediation of the accident, the masked cyber event may lead them to circumvent the safety mechanisms of the plant. Given these challenges, the objective of this project is to develop a tool to characterize abnormal NPP events as “cyber” or “safety” incidents, and to further develop this tool as a real-time operator aid to assist in response to the incident. This NEUP Final Report summarizes the research efforts towards the above goals and the results in the following three aspects. First, a methodology for classifying abnormal NPP events as cyber-attacks or safety incidents was developed. This provides the basis for responding to potential cyber-attacks. In this methodology, the causal relationships between various variables (i.e., physical variables, network variables, and control variables) for a nuclear system under consideration are modeled using dynamic Bayesian networks. Based on observations of certain variables (i.e., the evidence), inference is performed to identify the state of hidden variables, which helps indicate the occurrence of cyber-attacks or safety incidents. The proposed methodology was applied to the full scope NPP simulator system at The Ohio State University as a case study. The result shows that the proposed methodology is capable of distinguishing between cyber-attacks and safety incidents. Second, a game-theoretic approach for responding to cyber-attacks on nuclear power plants was developed. This is the second major goal of the project, and the method is used to recommend optimal responses to reactor operators in the case of cyber-attacks. We consider two cases in this research. In the first case, the interaction between the defender (i.e., the reactor operator) and the attacker is modeled as a two-player, nonzero-sum, Markov game with an infinite time horizon. In the second case, we consider a semi-Markov game between the defender and the attacker within a finite time horizon. The model in the second case enables us to consider the time sensitive response of the defender. In each case, the method for deriving the Nash equilibrium is developed. The Nash Equilibrium of the game provides the valid prediction of both players’ actions because no single player can benefit from unilaterally deviating from the equilibrium policy if the other player adheres to his/hers, hence it provides the best response of the defender to cyber-attacks. The proposed method in each case is demonstrated through a simplified benchmark digital feedwater control system. Third, a prototype display is developed to integrate the above information. The prototype display depicts the communication information to the operator and incorporates the cyber-security tool developed by the team into the interface. It consists of the regular display in current control rooms, as well as a panel used to indicate the occurrence of cyber-attacks or safety events and a panel used to guide the operator’s response to detected cyber-attacks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

IRAD-MPE Radiological and Nuclear Security Threats (Day 1) [Slides]

This module is designed to enhance awareness regarding radiological and nuclear security threats and the types of radioactive materials that can be used for criminal purposes or terrorist acts. The goals are to: (1) Review the Threat Assessment Process for MPEs, (2) Recognize Potential Radiological and Nuclear Security Threats, (3) Understand the basics of Radiological Dispersal Devices (RDD) and Radiological Exposure Devices (RED), (4) Learn about Medical, Commercial, and Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials (NORM) sources, and (5) Understand the term Material Out of Regulatory Control (MORC).

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Resolving Lipid Structures for Threat-Agnostic Signatures

Development of threat-agnostic biosignatures is critical for the detection of and response to biological threats that go beyond the historical list-based approach. Lipids are a class of structurally diverse biomolecules that hold great promise as relevant threat-agnostic biosignatures, yet the fundamental challenge of resolving and decoding structural differences among lipids remains an obstacle in the pursuit of signature development. Structural analysis of complex lipids remains stymied due to spectral complexity and the inability to resolve low abundance lipids. To address these challenges, we integrated ozonolysis with ion mobility mass spectrometry (IMS-MS) analysis to determine the structural information for complex lipid species and (2) reduced lipid sample complexity prior to introduction into the IMS-MS using normal phase high pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC) to enable the ozonolysis of low abundance lipids. We applied these new capabilities to define the lipid structures in antimicrobial resistant (AMR) and antimicrobial susceptible (AMS) biothreat organism Yersinia pestis and cells infected with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fusion Centers and State Energy Stakeholders: Pathways to Robust Threat Information Sharing

Threats to our nation’s critical infrastructure are escalating in frequency and sophistication. It is essential for public and private sectors to join forces to understand the threats, mitigate risks, and plan to respond and recover from disruption. Fusion centers — organizations purpose-built to facilitate communication and cooperation between federal, state, local, and territorial law enforcement entities — are well-positioned to play a pivotal role in this context. Although fusion centers historically focused on crime and terrorism, there is a need to engage more broadly and build stronger threat information sharing relationships among energy stakeholders within their states.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

Responsible Artificial Intelligence for Insider Threat Mitigation

This report examines the application of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies for insider threat mitigation (ITM) programs in nuclear security facilities. Insider threat detection presents unique challenges due to the subtle and adaptive nature of these threats, the complex signatures involved, and the scarcity of available data for analysis. Traditional human-centered approaches, while essential, face limitations in processing large amounts of data continuously and detecting subtle patterns across multiple systems. AI technologies can potentially address these limitations by providing 24/7 monitoring capabilities, identifying complex patterns that might escape human observation, and offering consistent application of security criteria. However, the deployment of AI in nuclear security contexts introduces significant new risks, including workflow disruption, expanded attack surfaces, potential for misuse, and ethical concerns regarding privacy, fairness, transparency, safety, and security. The high-consequence nature of nuclear security decisions demands careful consideration of these risks and systematic approaches to their mitigation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2017

Editorial: Biological Engagement Programs: Reducing Threats and Strengthening Global Health Security Through Scientific Collaboration

It is often said about infectious diseases that a “threat anywhere is a threat everywhere,” and the recent outbreaks of Ebola in West Africa and Zika virus in South America have proven that pathogens know no borders. Not only are they transboundary, pathogens do not discriminate who they infect. In addition to the natural increase in emerging zoonotic infectious diseases worldwide due to changing environmental conditions and globalization, the use of infectious diseases as warfare agents is a threat in today’s world. Early detection remains one of the best ways to prevent small outbreaks becoming epidemics and pandemics. We find that an accurate diagnosis, detection, and reporting of diseases are important components of mitigating outbreaks, and biosurveillance remains the top tool in our toolbox. And while vaccines have been important for controlling more common infectious virus diseases, they are less feasible for less common diseases, emerging pathogens, and rapidly evolving microbes. Furthermore, due to globalization and increased travel, emigration, and migration, biosurveillance is critical throughout the world, not just in pockets of more developed regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Survey of Cybersecurity Governance, Threats, and Countermeasures for the Power Grid

The convergence of Information Technologies and Operational Technology systems in industrial networks presents many challenges related to availability, integrity, and confidentiality. In this paper, we evaluate the various cybersecurity risks in industrial control systems and how they may affect these areas of concern, with a particular focus on energy-sector Operational Technology systems. There are multiple threats and countermeasures that Operational Technology and Information Technology systems share. Since Information Technology cybersecurity is a relatively mature field, this paper emphasizes on threats with particular applicability to Operational Technology and their respective countermeasures. We identify regulations, standards, frameworks and typical system architectures associated with this domain. We review relevant challenges, threats, and countermeasures, as well as critical differences in priorities between Information and Operational Technology cybersecurity efforts and implications. These results are then examined against the recommended National Institute of Standards and Technology framework for gap analysis to provide a complete approach to energy sector cybersecurity. We provide analysis of countermeasure implementation to align with the continuous functions recommended for a sound cybersecurity framework.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Could a Kilonova Kill: A Threat Assessment

Abstract Binary neutron star mergers produce high-energy emissions from several physically different sources, including a gamma-ray burst (GRB) and its afterglow, a kilonova (KN), and, at late times, a remnant many parsecs in size. Ionizing radiation from these sources can be dangerous for life on Earth-like planets when located too close. Work to date has explored the substantial danger posed by the GRB to on-axis observers; here we focus instead on the potential threats posed to nearby off-axis observers. Our analysis is based largely on observations of the GW170817/GRB 170817A multi-messenger event, as well as theoretical predictions. For baseline KN parameters, we find that the X-ray emission from the afterglow may be lethal out to ∼1 pc and the off-axis gamma-ray emission may threaten a range out to ∼4 pc, whereas the greatest threat comes years after the explosion, from the cosmic rays accelerated by the KN blast, which can be lethal out to distances up to ∼11 pc. The distances quoted here are typical, but the values have significant uncertainties and depend on the viewing angle, ejected mass, and explosion energy in ways we quantify. Assessing the overall threat to Earth-like planets, KNe have a similar kill distance to supernovae, but are far less common. However, our results rely on the scant available KN data, and multi-messenger observations will clarify the danger posed by such events.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
NASA NTRS2008

Mapping Historic Gypsy Moth Defoliation with MODIS Satellite Data: Implications for Forest Threat Early Warning System

This viewgraph presentation reviews a project, the goal of which is to study the potential of MODIS data for monitoring historic gypsy moth defoliation. A NASA/USDA Forest Service (USFS) partnership was formed to perform the study. NASA is helping USFS to implement satellite data products into its emerging Forest Threat Early Warning System. The latter system is being developed by the USFS Eastern and Western Forest Threat Assessment Centers. The USFS Forest Threat Centers want to use MODIS time series data for regional monitoring of forest damage (e.g., defoliation) preferably in near real time. The study's methodology is described, and the results of the study are shown.

Spurce, Joseph P.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Use of Vertically Integrated Ice in WRF-Based Forecasts of Lightning Threat

Previously reported methods of forecasting lightning threat using fields of graupel flux from WRF simulations are extended to include the simulated field of vertically integrated ice within storms. Although the ice integral shows less temporal variability than graupel flux, it provides more areal coverage, and can thus be used to create a lightning forecast that better matches the areal coverage of the lightning threat found in observations of flash extent density. A blended lightning forecast threat can be constructed that retains much of the desirable temporal sensitivity of the graupel flux method, while also incorporating the coverage benefits of the ice integral method. The graupel flux and ice integral fields contributing to the blended forecast are calibrated against observed lightning flash origin density data, based on Lightning Mapping Array observations from a series of case studies chosen to cover a wide range of flash rate conditions. Linear curve fits that pass through the origin are found to be statistically robust for the calibration procedures.

McCaul, E. W., jr.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Use of Current 2010 Forest Disturbance Monitoring Products for the Conterminous United States in Aiding a National Forest Threat Early Warning System

This presentation discusses contributions of near real time (NRT) MODIS forest disturbance detection products for the conterminous United States to an emerging national forest threat early warning system (EWS). The latter is being developed by the USDA Forest Service s Eastern and Western Environmental Threat Centers with help from NASA Stennis Space Center and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Building off work done in 2009, this national and regional forest disturbance detection and viewing capability of the EWS employs NRT MODIS NDVI data from the USGS eMODIS group and historical NDVI data from standard MOD13 products. Disturbance detection products are being computed for 24 day composites that are refreshed every 8 days. Products for 2010 include 42 dates of the 24 day composites. For each compositing date, we computed % change in forest maximum NDVI products for 2010 with respect to each of three historical baselines of 2009, 2007-2009, and 2003-2009,. The three baselines enable one to view potential current, recent, and longer term forest disturbances. A rainbow color table was applied to each forest change product so that potential disturbances (NDVI drops) were identified in hot color tones and growth (NDVI gains) in cold color tones. Example products were provided to end-users responsible for forest health monitoring at the Federal and State levels. Large patches of potential forest disturbances were validated based on comparisons with available reference data, including Landsat and field survey data. Products were posted on two internet mapping systems for US Forest Service internal and collaborator use. MODIS forest disturbance detection products were computed and posted for use in as little as 1 day after the last input date of the compositing period. Such products were useful for aiding aerial disturbance detection surveys and for assessing disturbance persistence on both inter- and intra-annual scales. Multiple 2010 forest disturbance events were detected across the nation, including damage from ice storms, tornadoes, caterpillars, bark beetles, and wildfires. This effort enabled improved NRT forest disturbance monitoring capabilities for this nation-wide forest threat EWS.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products Resident to the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. Sometimes these have resulted in regionally evident disturbance progressions (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and have resulted in extensive forest overstory mortality. In addition to stand replacement disturbances, other forests are subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and varying types and intensities of ephemeral damage from storms. Sometimes, after prolonged severe disturbance, signs of recovery in terms of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can occur. The growing prominence and threat of forest disturbances in part have led to the formation and implementation of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act which mandated that national forest threat early warning system be developed and deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oakridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build and roll-out the near real time ForWarn early warning system for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines that are used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six forest change products that are refreshed every 8 days. ForWarn employs daily quarter kilometer MODIS NDVI data from the Aqua and Terra satellites, including MOD13 data for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS 7 NDVI for compiling current NDVI. In doing so, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally de-noise, fuse, and aggregate current and historical MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of products per year. The 24 day compositing interval enables disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. Forest change products are computed versus the previous 1, previous 3, and all previous years in the MODIS record for a given 24 day interval. Other "weekly" forest change products include one computed using an adaptive length compositing method for quicker detection of disturbances, two others that adjust for seasonal fluctuations in normal vegetation phenology (e.g., early versus late springs). This overall approach enables forest disturbance dynamics from a variety of regionally evident biotic and abiotic forest disturbances to be viewed and assessed through the calendar year. The change products are also being utilized for forest change trend analysis and for developing regional forest overstory mortality products. ForWarn's forest change products are used to alert forest health specialists about new forest disturbances. Such alerts are also typically based on available Landsat, aerial, and ground data as well as communications with forest health specialists and previous experience. ForWarn products have been used to detect and track many types of regional disturbances to multiple forest types, including defoliation from caterpillars and severe storms, as well as mortality from both biotic and abiotic agents (e.g., bark beetles, drought, fire, anthropogenic clearing). ForWarn offers products that could be combined with other geospatial data on forest biomass to assess forest disturbance carbon impacts within the conterminous US.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗