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NASA NTRS2020

Central Valley Water Resources II: Groundwater Sustainability Management Support in the California Central Valley using GRACE and InSAR Datasets

California’s Central Valley is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the United States, producing a fourth of the nation’s food supply. The water demand in this region is heavily dependent on groundwater resources, resulting in over pumping of aquifers at unsustainable rates during recent periods of severe drought. Over the past century, Central Valley aquifers have experienced a significant decline in groundwater levels, resulting in land subsidence and irreversible loss in groundwater storage. In 2014, the state enacted the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, requiring high and medium priority subbasins to suspend overdraft and achieve sustainable levels of pumping and recharge by 2042.The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) oversees subbasin groundwater management; however, monitoring remains challenging due to sparse and inconsistent in situ data. To assist the DWR, this project developed a user-friendly executable application and an interactive visualization tool to quantify groundwater storage and land subsidence trends using remotely sensed and in situ data. The team utilized NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO), Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR) interferograms, and Advanced Land Observing Satellite 2 (ALOS-2) Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar 2 (PALSAR-2) interferograms in conjunction with well and GPS measurements to analyze groundwater and subsidence trends. GRACE and well data returns produced a strong Pearson correlation of .84, while Sentinel-1 and GPS data returns produced a Pearson correlation of .41 over the entire Central Valley. These findings suggest remotely sensed GRACE and interferometric SAR data can be used in the absence of in situ data.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

NASA NTRS2021

Mass Balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet 1992–2016: Reconciling Results from GRACE Gravimetry With ICESat, ERS1/2 and Envisat Altimetry

GRACE and ICESat Antarctic mass-balance differences are resolved utilizing their dependencies on corrections for changes in mass and volume of the same underlying mantle material forced by ice-loading changes. Modeled gravimetry corrections are 5.22 times altimetry corrections over East Antarctica (EA) and 4.51 times over West Antarctica (WA), with inferred mantle densities 4.75 and 4.11 g/cu. cm. Derived sensitivities (Sg, Sa) to bedrock motion enable calculation of motion (δB0) needed to equalize GRACE and ICESat mass changes during 2003–08. For EA, δB0 is −2.2 mm/a subsidence with mass matching at 150 Gt/a, inland WA is −3.5 mm/a at 66 Gt/a, and coastal WA is only −0.35 mm/a at −95 Gt/a. WA subsidence is attributed to low mantle viscosity with faster responses to post-LGM deglaciation and to ice growth during Holocene grounding-line readvance. EA subsidence is attributed to Holocene dynamic thickening. With Antarctic Peninsula loss of −26 Gt/a, the Antarctic total gain is 95 ± 25 Gt/a during 2003–08, compared to 144 ± 61 Gt/a from ERS1/2 during 1992–2001. Beginning in 2009, large increases in coastal WA dynamic losses overcame long-term EA and inland WA gains bringing Antarctica close to balance at −12 ± 64 Gt/a by 2012–16.

Antarctic glaciology↗

NASA NTRS2022

Cloud Adjustments From Large-Scale Smoke–Circulation Interactions Strongly Modulate the Southeastern Atlantic Stratocumulus-to-Cumulus Transition

Smoke from southern Africa blankets the southeastern Atlantic Ocean from June to October, producing strong and competing aerosol radiative effects. Smoke effects on the transition between overcast stratocumulus and scattered cumulus clouds are investigated along a Lagrangian (air-mass-following) trajectory in regional climate and large eddy simulation models. Results are compared with observations from three recent field campaigns that took place in August 2017: ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES), CLouds and Aerosol Radiative Impacts and Forcing: Year 2017 (CLARIFY), and Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC). The case study is set up around the joint ORACLES–CLARIFY flight that took place near Ascension Island on 18 August 2017. Smoke sampled upstream on an ORACLES flight on 15 August 2017 likely entrained into the marine boundary layer later sampled during the joint flight. The case is first simulated with the WRF-CAM5 regional climate model in three distinct setups: (1) FireOn, in which smoke emissions and any resulting smoke–cloud–radiation interactions are included; (2) FireOff, in which no smoke emissions are included; (3) RadOff, in which smoke emissions and their microphysical effects are included but aerosol does not interact directly with radiation. Over the course of the Lagrangian trajectory, differences in free tropospheric thermodynamic properties between FireOn and FireOff are nearly identical to those between FireOn and RadOff, showing that aerosol–radiation interactions are primarily responsible for the free tropospheric effects. These effects are non-intuitive: in addition to the expected heating within the core of the smoke plume, there is also a “banding” effect of cooler temperature (∼1–2 K) and greatly enhanced moisture (>2 g kg−1) at the plume top. This banding effect is caused by a vertical displacement of the former continental boundary layer in the free troposphere in the FireOn simulation resulting from anomalous diabatic heating due to smoke absorption of sunlight that manifests primarily as a few hundred meters per day reduction in large-scale subsidence over the ocean. A large eddy simulation (LES) is then forced with free tropospheric fields taken from the outputs for the WRF-CAM5 FireOn and FireOff runs. Cases are run by selectively perturbing one variable (e.g., aerosol number concentration, temperature, moisture, vertical velocity) at a time to better understand the contributions from different indirect (microphysical), “large-scale” semi-direct (above-cloud thermodynamic and subsidence changes), and “local” semi-direct (below-cloud smoke absorption) effects. Despite a more than 5-fold increase in cloud droplet number concentration when including smoke aerosol concentrations, minimal differences in cloud fraction evolution are simulated by the LES when comparing the base case with a perturbed aerosol case with identical thermodynamic and dynamic forcings. A factor of 2 decrease in background free tropospheric aerosol concentrations from the FireOff simulation shifts the cloud evolution from a classical entrainment-driven “deepening–warming” transition to trade cumulus to a precipitation-driven “drizzle-depletion” transition to open cells, however. The thermodynamic and dynamic changes caused by the WRF-simulated large-scale adjustments to smoke diabatic heating strongly influence cloud evolution in terms of both the rate of deepening (especially for changes in the inversion temperature jump and in subsidence) and in cloud fraction on the final day of the simulation (especially for the moisture “banding” effect). Such large-scale semi-direct effects would not have been possible to simulate using a small-domain LES model alone.

southeast Atlantic Ocean↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Short-Term Deformation in the Central Valley Using Machine Learning

Land subsidence caused by excessive groundwater pumping in Central Valley, California, is a major issue that has several negative impacts such as reduced aquifer storage and damaged infrastructures which, in turn, produce an economic loss due to the high reliance on crop production. This is why it is of utmost importance to routinely monitor and assess the surface deformation occurring. Two main goals that this paper attempts to accomplish are deformation characterization and deformation prediction. The first goal is realized through the use of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied to a series of Interferomtric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) images that produces eigenimages displaying the key characteristics of the subsidence. Water storage changes are also directly analyzed by the use of data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin satellites and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). The second goal is accomplished by building a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to predict short-term deformation after developing an InSAR time series using LiCSBAS, an open-source InSAR time series package. The model is applied to the city of Madera and produces better results than a baseline averaging model and a one dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) based on a mean squared error metric showing the effectiveness of machine learning in deformation prediction as well as the potential for incorporation in hazard mitigation models. The model results can directly aid policy makers in determining the appropriate rate of groundwater withdrawal while maintaining the safety and well-being of the population as well as the aquifers’ integrity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

Wrinkle Ridges on Mercury and the Moon Within and Outside of Mascons

Found on all terrestrial planets, wrinkle ridges are anticlines formed by thrust faulting and folding resulting from crustal shortening. The MErcury Surface, Space Environment, Geochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft's orbital phase returned high resolution images and topographic data of the previously unimaged northern high latitudes of Mercury where there are large expanses of smooth plains deformed by wrinkle ridges. Concurrently, the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is obtaining high resolution images and topographic data covering lunar mare wrinkle ridges. These data allow quantitative comparison of the scale of wrinkle ridges in smooth plains volcanic units on Mercury with mare wrinkle ridges. We evaluate the topographic relief of 300 wrinkle ridges within and outside of mascon basins on the Moon and Mercury. Measured wrinkle ridges range from ~112 to 776 m in relief with a mean of ~350 m (median = ~340 m, n = 150) on Mercury and from ~47 to 678 m in relief with a mean of ~198 m (median = ~168 m, n = 150) on the Moon. Wrinkle ridges on Mercury thus are approximately twice as large in mean relief compared to their counterparts on the Moon. The larger scale of Mercury's wrinkle ridges suggests that their formation can be attributed, in part, to global contraction. As global contraction on the Moon is estimated to be an order of magnitude smaller than on Mercury, the smaller scale of lunar wrinkle ridges suggests they most likely form primarily by load induced subsidence of the mare basalt. Wrinkle ridges located in lunar mascon basins and in the Caloris mascon on Mercury are not statistically significantly different in relief than ridges in non-mascon regions, suggesting comparable levels of contractional strain. The fact that mascon basins do not host wrinkle ridges with greater structural relief relative to non-mascon units may indicate the critical role lithospheric thickness plays in controlling subsidence and contraction of thick volcanic sequences on the Moon and Mercury.

Global contraction↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of short‐ and long‐term system response during gas production from a gas hydrate deposit at the UBGH2‐6 site of the Ulleung Basin in the Korean East Sea

Abstract This study is a continuation of an investigation into the feasibility of long‐term production from a marine hydrate accumulation that has the properties and conditions of the UBGH2‐6 (UBGH2, Ulleung Basin Gas Hydrates 2; 2 is the number of the scientific expedition) site at the Ulleung Basin in the Korean East Sea. The 12.7 m‐thick system is in deep water (2157 m), but at 140 m below the seafloor. It is characterized by alternating hydrate‐free clays and muds and hydrate‐rich sand layers. The layered stratigraphy and the presence of mud layers favours the use of vertical wells rather than horizontal wells for production. The analysis indicates that production from such a hydrate accumulation is technically feasible, but the gas production rates are generally low. Water production accompanying gas production from this deposit appears manageable under all the scenarios investigated in this study, however, the water‐to‐gas ratio is high. Subsidence at the ocean floor at the end of a 14 day test is quite limited. However, there is significant uncertainty in the predictions of the geomechanical system's behaviour because they are not based on measured system properties but only on estimates/assumptions from analogues. The long‐term production potential of the reservoir at the site investigated here appears challenging because of the limited effectiveness of dissociation and large water production, in addition to substantial subsidence.

Moridis, George J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Coastal Fog from a Ship During the C-FOG Campaign

This work presents ship-based measurements of fog off St John’s Newfoundland on 13 September 2018 during the Coastal Fog (C-FOG) field campaign. The measurements included cloud-particle spectra, cloud-base height and aerosol backscatter, radiation, turbulence, visibility, and sea surface temperature. Radiosonde soundings were made at intervals less than 2 hours. Fog occurred in two episodes under the center of eastward-moving synoptic low-pressure system. The boundary layer structure during the first fog episode consisted of 3 layers, separated by 2 saturated air temperature inversions and capped by a subsidence inversion. The lowest layer was fog and the upper layers were cloud. The second fog episode consisted of one well-mixed fog layer capped by a subsidence inversion. Low wind speeds and stable stratification maintained low surface-layer turbulence during fog. Droplet size distributions had typical bimodal distributions. The visibility correlated with the droplet number concentration and liquid water content. The air temperature was higher than the sea surface temperature for the first 30 minutes of the first fog episode but was colder than the sea for the remainder of all fog. The sensible heat flux was upward, from sea to air, for the first 62 % of the first fog episode and then reversed to downward, from air to sea, for the remainder of the first fog episode and the second fog episode. Here, the counter-gradient heat fluxes observed (i.e., opposite to what is expected from the instantaneous air-sea temperature difference) appear to be related to turbulence, entrainment and stratification in the fog layer that overwhelmed the influence of air-sea temperature difference. While the synoptic-scale dynamics preconditioned the area for fog formation, the final step of fog appearance in this case was nuanced by stratification-turbulence interactions, local advective processes and microphysical environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Northward propagation of the Gulf of Elat-Aqaba constrained by cosmogenic burial ages and magnetostratigraphy of onshore sediments

The Gulf of Elat-Aqaba (GEA), located in the southern part of the Dead Sea Transform (DST), is one of the most active segments of the Dead Sea fault system. Yet, some fundamental details concerning its evolution in space and time are still not fully understood. To better constrain the tectonic history of this region, we study a succession of alluvial, lacustrine, and fluvial deposits in the north-western edge of the GEA, which belong to the Quaternary Eilot and Garof Fms. The Eilot Fm. represents low-energy shallow freshwater bodies and sabkhas, which predate the development of the deep part of the basin. Later, in response to the subsidence of the basin, the Garof Fm. was deposited in alluvial fans that built up following the increase in the depositional energy. Cosmogenic burial ages combined with magnetostratigraphy show that these Fms. were deposited as early as 3.03 Ma and as late as 1.65 Ma, depending on the applied age model. Considering the present depth of the northern GEA, this age indicates a maximum subsidence rate of the head of the GEA of ~1.98mm/yr. We suggest that faults along the onshore margin of the deep basin were active during the deposition of the Garof Fm. and subsequently became inactive, while the faulting activity migrated toward the center of the basin. In conclusion, closed Holocene basins north of the present seashore, such as the Elat and Evrona playas, which may represent a modern analogue to the Plio-Pleistocene morphology, raise the possibility that the GEA head is still propagating northward.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Remarkable 2024 North Atlantic Mid‐Season Hurricane Lull

Abstract The 2024 North Atlantic (hereafter Atlantic) hurricane season started quickly, with the earliest Category 5 on record (Beryl) and three hurricanes forming through 14 August. Following Ernesto's dissipation on 20 August, the Atlantic hurricane season became extremely quiet during the climatological peak of hurricane season, with only one Category 2 hurricane (Francine) and one tropical storm through 23 September. Several environmental factors likely contributed to this unexpected, prolonged lull. During mid‐to‐late August, subseasonal conditions were broadly favorable for Atlantic hurricanes, but a northward shift in African easterly wave emergence latitude yielded fewer tropical cyclone seed disturbances that also traversed unfavorably cool ocean water. During early‐to‐mid September, subseasonal variability driven by the Madden‐Julian oscillation was less conducive to hurricane activity, with several bouts of increased vertical wind shear across the central Atlantic. Throughout most of the lull, the tropical Atlantic was anomalously dry and subsident, suppressing hurricane formation chances. Plain Language Summary The 2024 North Atlantic (hereafter Atlantic) hurricane season was anticipated to be extremely active, with seasonal forecasts calling for a potentially historic season. Following a busy start including the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record (Beryl), the season became very quiet between 20 August–23 September, with only one Category 2 hurricane (Francine) and one tropical storm forming. Following the lull, the Atlantic became extremely busy again, with seven hurricanes forming from 25 September through the end of the season–the most on record for this period. This paper focuses on the surprising lull and attributes it to several different factors, including a late‐August northward shift in African easterly wave tracks (organized thunderstorm complexes spanning thousands of kilometers that often serve as Atlantic hurricane seeds). This northward shift brought these systems out over colder water and into a drier airmass, suppressing their hurricane formation chances. During the first 3 weeks of September, a large‐scale tropical phenomenon known as the Madden‐Julian oscillation, resulted in increased sinking motion, drier mid‐levels and increased vertical wind shear–all of which typically reduce Atlantic hurricane activity. Overall, the lull demonstrates how seed disturbances and other environmental factors can strongly modulate aggregate seasonal tropical cyclone activity. Key Points Following an active start, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane was quiet during the climatological peak with only 1 tropical storm and 1 hurricane The lull was not anticipated by seasonal forecasting agencies, which called for an extremely active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season Factors reducing storm count included a northward shift in African easterly waves, broad‐scale subsidence, and reduced mid‐level moisture

Klotzbach, P J↗

DOE OSTI2023

Increasing the Reach of Low-Income Energy Programmes through Behaviourally Informed Peer Referral

Subsidized energy assistance programmes are a popular policy tool for promoting energy justice, but, like other social benefits programmes, are often undersubscribed. To improve uptake, some programmes have turned to social influence strategies, such as asking programme participants to refer their peers. Here, through a field experiment with California's low-income solar programme (N = 7,676), we show that referral behaviour depends on how existing participants are approached. Adding behavioural science strategies to a referral reward increases peer referral rates, referral quality and ultimately solar adoption. Compared with only reminding existing adopters of a potential US$200 reward for referrals that result in adoption, adding an appeal to reciprocity through a non-contingent US$1 gift - and further combining this gift with a simplified referral process - leads to 2.6-5.2 times as many solar contracts. These results highlight the potential of behaviourally informed peer referral programmes to accelerate equitable access to clean energy.

California↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using Sentinel-1 and GRACE satellite data to monitor the hydrological variations within the Tulare Basin, California

Abstract Subsidence induced by groundwater depletion is a grave problem in many regions around the world, leading to a permanent loss of groundwater storage within an aquifer and even producing structural damage at the Earth’s surface. California’s Tulare Basin is no exception, experiencing about a meter of subsidence between 2015 and 2020. However, understanding the relationship between changes in groundwater volumes and ground deformation has proven difficult. We employ surface displacement measurements from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and gravimetric estimates of terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite pair to characterize the hydrological dynamics within the Tulare basin. The removal of the long-term aquifer compaction from the InSAR time series reveals coherent short-term variations that correlate with hydrological features. For example, in the winter of 2018–2019 uplift is observed at the confluence of several rivers and streams that drain into the southeastern edge of the basin. These observations, combined with estimates of mass changes obtained from the orbiting GRACE satellites, form the basis for imaging the monthly spatial variations in water volumes. This approach facilitates the quick and effective synthesis of InSAR and gravimetric datasets and will aid efforts to improve our understanding and management of groundwater resources around the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Current data are consistent with flat spatial hypersurfaces in the Λ CDM cosmological model but favor more lensing than the model predicts

Here, we study the performance of three pairs of tilted, and a pair of untilited, ΛCDM cosmological models, with three of these four pairs allowing for non-flat spatial hypersurfaces, against cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization power spectrum data (P18), measurements of the Planck 2018 lensing potential power spectrum (lensing), and a large compilation of non-CMB data (non-CMB). For the eight models, we measure cosmological parameters and study whether or not pairs of the data sets (as well as subsets of them) are mutually consistent in these models. Half of these models allow the lensing consistency parameter A L , which re-scales the gravitational potential power spectrum, to be an additional free parameter to be determined from data, while the other three have A L = 1 which is the theoretically expected value. The pair of untilted non-flat ΛCDM models are incompatible with P18 data. The tilted spatially-flat models assume the usual primordial spatial inhomogeneity power spectrum that is a power law in wave number. The tilted non-flat models assume either the primordial power spectrum used in the Planck group anal yses [Planck P(q)], that has recently been numerically shown to be a good approximation to what is quantum-mechanically generated from a particular choice of closed inflation model initial conditions, or a recently computed power spectrum [new P(q)] that quantum-mechanically follows from a different set of non-flat inflation model initial conditions. In the tilted non-flat models with A L = 1 we find differences between P18 data and non-CMB data cosmological parameter constraints, which are large enough to rule out the Planck P(q) model at 3σ but not the new P(q) model. No significant differences are found when cosmological parameter constraints obtained with two different data sets are compared within the standard tilted flat ΛCDM model. While both P18 data and non-CMB data separately favor a closed geometry, with spatial curvature density parameter Ω k < 0, when P18+non-CMB data are jointly analyzed the evidence in favor of non-flat hypersurfaces subsides. Differences between P18 data and non-CMB data cosmological constraints subside when A L is allowed to vary. From the most restrictive P18+lensing+non-CMB data combination we get almost model-independent constraints on the cosmological parameters and find that the A L > 1 option is preferred over the Ω k < 0 one, with the A L parameter, for all models, being larger than unity by ~ 2.5σ. According to the deviance information criterion, in the P18+lensing+non-CMB analysis, the varying A L option is on the verge of being strongly favored over the A L = 1 one, which could indicate a problem for the standard tilted flat ΛCDM model. These data are consistent with flat spatial hypersurfaces but more and better data could improve the constraints on Ω k and might alter this conclusion. Error bars on some cosmological parameters are significantly reduced when non-CMB data are used jointly with P18+lensing data. For example, in the tilted flat ΛCDM model for P18+lensing+non-CMB data the Hubble constant H 0 = 68.09 ± 0.38 km s -1 Mpc -1 , which is consistent with that from a median statistics analysis of a large compilation of H 0 measurements as well as with a number of local measurements of the cosmological expansion rate. This H 0 error bar is 31% smaller than that from P18+lensing data alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Complex surface topographic changes from explosive experiments at the Dry Alluvium Geology site, southern Nevada, United States

Understanding the surface topographic change that results from underground explosions is important for global security. Current techniques to relate the surface change to underground explosion characteristics usually involve assuming the earth has homogenous properties, leading to highly variable interpretations. Here we use an unoccupied aerial platform and a digital single lens reflex camera along with 200+ ground control points surveyed with a real-time kinematic global navigation satellite system to measure the surface topographic change resulting from two underground explosions at the Dry Alluvium Geology site in Yucca Flat, Nevada National Security Site, southern Nevada, United States. We find areas of 5–7 cm of subsidence that are not directly above the explosion source but rather 200–300 m away. For experiment DAG2, this zone is located south and west of the explosion, while for DAG4, there is a zone of subsidence located northeast of the explosion. In addition, late-time measurements show as much as 5 cm of horizontal change without measurable associated vertical change in the weeks following DAG4 but not DAG2. These indicate that the deformation resulting from underground chemical explosions can be very complex and bear little to no resemblance to predictions using half-space models. It is likely the tectonic environment plays a significant role in controlling the surface change, but the details are not fully understood.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

SSRS (Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator)

SSRS (Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator) is a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool for wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers and industry consultants to estimate the potential for soaring raptors to interact with operating wind turbines, without the need for site-specific data collection. Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has exposed the risk of turbine collisions for birds and bats. The risk to obligate soaring raptors such as golden eagles is of particular concern due to their small population and influence on ecological balance. Golden eagles rely heavily on updrafts to subsidize their flight, putting them in direct conflict with operational wind turbines that utilize the same wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors with varying atmospheric conditions is crucial for predicting and mitigating the risk of turbine collision. This software contains a predictive movement model that simulates individual flight paths of golden eagles during updraft-subsidized long-distance flight, including migration. For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates thousands of eagles at turbine-scale spatial resolution (50m) to produce a relative presence density map. The simulated eagles rely on updrafts to pursue uninterrupted directional flight with minimal energy expenditure, following fluid-flow principles. The simulator includes a stochastic model of eagle behavior and a systematic method of accounting for spatiotemporal variations in atmospheric conditions. This framework only requires publicly available atmospheric data to estimate orographic and thermal updrafts, ensuring general usability.

Sandhu, Rimple↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Summertime Mesoscale Convective Systems: A Simple Lagrangian Parcel Model Perspective

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the dominant rainfall producer over the United States during the warm season, causing natural disasters and severe weather every year. Global climate models have large uncertainty in projecting precipitation changes in the future climate. Here, a simple Lagrangian parcel model is used to investigate the impact of global warming on MCS initiation and growth. The single-column parcel model projects a mean precipitation decrease over the central United States and an increase to its east, in agreement with the CMIP5 model projection. It also highlights the crucial role of current climate mean-state model bias in exaggerating the change in future mean precipitation projection by 25%. As for convective population, the model captures the decreased occurrence frequency of weak to moderate convection and increased frequency of strong convection due to the increased CAPE and CIN, in agreement with convection-permitting regional simulations. Novel parameterizations of gust-front propagation speed and subsidence strength are developed as guided by cloud-resolving simulations. The multicolumn parcel model employing those parameterizations captures readily the cold pool–induced upscale growth feature. It simulates smaller mesoscale clusters over the central United States under global warming due to gust-front slowdown and subsidence strength enhancement, which are further attributed to land aridity–induced weakening of initial accumulated precipitation and strengthening of updraft speed, respectively. That said, mesoscale clusters could become bigger under more favorable conditions in future climate, including boundary layer moistening, convection lifetime lengthening, and cold pool mechanical-lifting enhancement, which require further investigations to improve mechanistic understanding of future MCS changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Two Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns are Associated with Short-Duration Dry Spells in the Northeastern United States

Large-scale meteorological pattern (LSMP)–based analysis is used in a novel way to understand meteorological conditions before and during short-duration dry spells over the northeastern United States. These LSMPs are useful to assess models and select better-performing models for future projections. Dry-spell events are identified from histograms of consecutive dry days below a daily precipitation threshold. Events lasting 12 days or longer, which correspond to ~10% of dry-spell events, are examined. The 500-hPa stream-function anomaly fields for the first 12 days of each event are time averaged, and k -means clustering is applied to isolate the dry-spell-related LSMPs. The first cluster has a strong low pressure anomaly over the Atlantic Ocean, southeast of the region, and is more common in winter and spring. The second cluster has strong high pressure over east-central North America and is most common during autumn. Over the region, both clusters have negative specific humidity anomalies, negative integrated vapor transport from the north, and subsidence associated with a midlatitude jet stream dipole structure that reinforces upper-level convergence. Subsidence is supported by cold-air advection in the first cluster and the location on the east side of the lower-level high pressure in the second cluster. Extratropical cyclone storm tracks are generally shifted southward of the region during the dry spells. Individual events lie on a continuum between two distinct clusters. These clusters have similar local, but different remote, properties. Although dry spells occur with greater frequency during drought months, most dry spells occur during nondrought months. Significance Statement: This study examines the large-scale weather patterns and meteorological conditions associated with dry-spell events lasting at least 2 weeks while affecting the northeastern United States. A statistical approach groups events together on the basis of similar atmospheric features. We find two distinct sets of patterns that we call large-scale meteorological patterns. These patterns reduce moisture, foster localized sinking, and shift the storm track southward along the Atlantic seaboard, all of which reduce precipitation. Besides greater understanding, knowing the meteorological patterns during short-term dryness in the region provides an important tool to assess how well atmospheric models reproduce these specific patterns. More dry spells occur in non-drought months than in drought months, which means that dry spells can occur without preexisting drought conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bryan Mound Abandoned Cavern 3 Stability Analysis - 2021 Review

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is moving towards employing an expanded enhanced monitoring program. In doing so it has become apparent that there is a need for a better project wide understanding of the current state of Bryan Mound abandoned Cavern 3 stability. Cavern 3 has been inaccessible since 1988 when it was plugged and abandoned and thus this comprehensive report is structured by focusing on 1) a summarization of what can be discerned from historical records prior to 1988 and 2) a presentation and discussion of our current understanding of Cavern 3 based solely on surface monitoring and geomechanical analyses. Historical literature state the cavern was deemed unsuitable for oil storage, as it could not be definitively determined if fluid pressure could be maintained in the borehole. Current surface monitoring indicates the largest surface subsidence rates are occurring above Cavern 3. The subsidence rates are linear with no evidence of acceleration. Cavern collapse could occur if there is insufficient pressure holding up the roof. Next steps are to implement a microseismic system that will lend to a better understanding of cavern stability, as well as provide an improved early warning system for loss of integrity.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Technical and Economic Assessment of LWR Flexible Operation for Generation and Demand Balancing to Optimize Plant Revenue

With increased penetration of subsidized variable renewable energy (VRE) resources and competition from low natural gas prices, existing light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) are struggling to remain economically competitive. This work examines the potential economic competitiveness of various thermal energy storage (TES) technologies when coupled directly or indirectly with a NPP. To highlight their relative economic competitiveness, we contrast several energy storage solutions in stochastic dispatch optimization. We leverage data from recent work analyzing a range of TES technologies with varying capital costs, performance, and technology readiness level (TRL) to establish our case. We explore inserting these technologies into an electricity market with existing nuclear generation and large projected variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration. Although these technologies' projected capital costs may make them unlikely candidates in their current state, this analysis demonstrates a high-fidelity techno-economic analysis of energy storage. Furthermore, as the projected cost of energy storage technologies evolves, this analysis sets a precedent for similar future investigations. One region with projected trends that may be unfavorable for existing nuclear capacity is the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) market. New York state’s baseload generation has been historically provided by fossil-fired and nuclear assets. However, amid economic pressures from subsidized VREs and low natural gas prices, the state has recently deactivated Indian Point nuclear power plant units 2 and 3. Furthermore, the state plans to meet its zero-emission generation target by 2040 by replacing fossil-fired capacity with significant investments in VRE resources like wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage. Increased intermittent resource penetration lowers the baseload power requirement, adding further economic pressure to the state’s three remaining NPPs still in operation. With three NPPs still in operation in New York, this work analyzes potential economic benefits to NPPs on the New York grid when directly or indirectly coupled with various TES technologies. This work requires two modeling steps to analyze the potential economic benefits of various system configurations of the TES directly or indirectly coupled with nuclear. First, this analysis leverages capacity expansion modeling by experts at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Using their deterministic capacity expansion model, U.S. Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN), EPRI analysts evaluated the capacity and generation evolution of the New York state energy market under four projection scenarios. These four projection scenarios were developed to represent the potential evolution of the capacity and generation in NYISO from 2015 to 2050 under various economic, technology, and policy constraints. The results from these capacity expansion models are then used as boundary conditions in the second modeling step. The second modeling step uses the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) for a set of stochastic techno-economic analyses (STEAs) to investigate the potential increase in the economic viability of various configurations of the TES. With no current capacity expansion capabilities, HERON takes the data generated from US-REGEN for 2050 to generate synthetic load, solar, and wind data. Then HERON economically optimizes the capacity and dispatch of the various TES configurations. The potential economic benefit is the differential net present value (NPV) of the TES configurations from the no-TES baseline. As a stochastic techno-economic analysis package, HERON introduces uncertainty into the economic metrics, while US-REGEN trades resolution for reduced computational complexity. Using HERON also allows the modeling of direct thermal coupling, a feature not common in capacity and dispatch models. As expected, with high capital costs, the costs of introducing energy storage for all the technologies considered outweighed the potential economic benefit of this strategy for flexible plant operation. The benefit of this analysis is primarily in demonstrating a workflow that examines innovative solutions to increase NPP revenue via TES coupling. HERON’s stochastic capacity and dispatch optimization process used in this work has proven an effective tool in observing and evaluating the impact of introducing storage technologies in a grid energy system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗