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NASA NTRS1990

A Review and Reflections on the Sun-Climate Connection

The field of sun-climate is beset with an extraordinary number of numerical correlations attempting to relate various periodicities of solar activity with changes in the Earth's weather and climate. Signatures representing climatological variability have been sought for cycles as short as the solar 28-day rotational period up to Milankovich periods of thousands of years, although a majority of correlations have concentrated on the 11-year sunspot and 22-year Hale double sunspot cycles. For the shorter term, parameters including temperature, pressure, winds storm tracks, rainfall, and water levels in rivers and lakes, etc. have been correlated with solar variability. For longer periods, it has been necessary to seek more indirect evidence in ice cores, tree rings, and geologic deep sea cores. Other atmospheric parameters relating to atmospheric electricity and the global electric circuit have also been correlated in similar fashion. Unfortunately, few, if any, of this wide spectrum of numerical correlations have been associated with any viable physical explanation, making most studies in the field an exercise in numerical statistics. More recently, a few suggestions for plausible coupling processes have begun to appear. These, coupled with new and stronger correlations involving selective binning of climatological data sets have injected new life and hope to this field. An overview is given of the historical past and current perspectives, to evaluate possible avenues for defining physical linking processes in the future.

Goldberg, Richard A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The effect of latent heat release on synoptic-to-planetary wave interactions and its implication for satellite observations: Theoretical modeling

The project objectives are to develop process models to investigate the interaction of planetary and synoptic-scale waves including the effects of latent heat release (precipitation), nonlinear dynamics, physical and boundary-layer processes, and large-scale topography; to determine the importance of latent heat release for temporal variability and time-mean behavior of planetary and synoptic-scale waves; to compare the model results with available observations of planetary and synoptic wave variability; and to assess the implications of the results for monitoring precipitation in oceanic-storm tracks by satellite observing systems. Researchers have utilized two different models for this project: a two-level quasi-geostrophic model to study intraseasonal variability, anomalous circulations and the seasonal cycle, and a 10-level, multi-wave primitive equation model to validate the two-level Q-G model and examine effects of convection, surface processes, and spherical geometry. It explicitly resolves several planetary and synoptic waves and includes specific humidity (as a predicted variable), moist convection, and large-scale precipitation. In the past year researchers have concentrated on experiments with the multi-level primitive equation model. The dynamical part of that model is similar to the spectral model used by the National Meteorological Center for medium-range forecasts. The model includes parameterizations of large-scale condensation and moist convection. To test the validity of results regarding the influence of convective precipitation, researchers can use either one of two different convective schemes in the model, a Kuo convective scheme or a modified Arakawa-Schubert scheme which includes downdrafts. By choosing one or the other scheme, they can evaluate the impact of the convective parameterization on the circulation. In the past year researchers performed a variety of initial-value experiments with the primitive-equation model. Using initial conditions typical of climatological winter conditions, they examined the behavior of synoptic and planetary waves growing in moist and dry environments. Surface conditions were representative of a zonally averaged ocean. They found that moist convection associated with baroclinic wave development was confined to the subtropics.

Branscome, Lee E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Effect of cloud cover and surface type on earth's radiation budget derived from the first year of ERBE data

One year of ERBE data is analyzed for variations in outgoing LW and absorbed solar flux. Differences in land and ocean radiation budgets as well as differences between clear-sky and total scenes, including clouds, are studied. The variation of monthly average radiative parameters is examined for February 1985 through January 1986 for selected study regions and on zonal and global scales. ERBE results show significant seasonal variations in both outgoing LW and absorbed SW flux, and a pronounced difference between oceanic and continental surfaces. The main factors determining cloud radiative forcing in a given region are solar insolation, cloud amount, cloud type, and surface properties. The strongest effects of clouds are found in the midlatitude storm tracks over the oceans. Over much of the globe, LW warming is balanced by SW cooling. The annual-global average net cloud forcing shows that clouds have a net cooling effect on the earth for the year.

Gibson, G. G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Type B cyclogenesis in a zonally varying flow

An earlier formulated hypothesis that surface cyclogenesis in the Northern-Hemisphere storm-track regions can be described by the structural modification of baroclinic wave packets traversing a zonally varying flow field was tested using a linear quasi-geostrophic model with a zonally varying basic state and a zonally varying Ekman layer eddy viscosity. The results of eigenvalue calculations and initial value integrations confirm the proposed mechanism for Type B cyclogenesis. It is shown that a disturbance initiated upstream of the midchannel baroclinic zone rapidly evolves into a wave packet with the maximum amplitude near the tropopause; the wave packet undergoes a structural modification upon entering the low-level baroclinic zone, developing maximum amplitude at the surface. The proposed model of Type B cyclogenesis is consistent with numerous case studies.

Whitaker, Jeffrey S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Analysis of the impact of Seasat scatterometer data and horizontal resolution on GLA model simulations of the QE II storm

The impact of the Seasat-A satellite scatterometer wind data and the increased horizontal resolution on the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres model predictions of the Queen Elizabeth II (QE II) storm of 9-11 September 1978 was evaluated for four different GLA model simulations of the QE II storm. It is shown that the largest impact on the simulation was caused by doubling the model's horizontal resolution from 4 deg x 5 deg to 2 deg x 2.5 deg. The increased resolution resulted in a storm track which was much closer to the one observed, with a much deeper surface development, a stronger mass circulation, stronger heating, and stronger increase of angular momentum.

Lenzen, Allen J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

GCM simulations of intraseasonal variability in the Pacific/North American region

General circulation model (GCM) simulations of low-frequency variability with time scales of 20 to 70 days are analyzed for the Pacific sector during boreal winter. The GCM's leading mode in the upper-tropospheric zonal wind is associated with fluctuations of the East Asian jet; this mode resembles, in both structure and amplitude, the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern found in the observations on these time scales. In both the model and observations, the PNA anomaly is characterized by: (1) a linear balance in the upper-tropospheric vorticity budget with no significant Rossby wave source in the tropics, (2) a barotropic conversion of kinetic energy from the time mean Pacific jet, and (3) a north/south displacement of the Pacific storm track. In the GCM, the latter is associated with synoptic eddy heat flux and latent heat anomalies that appear to contribute to a strong lower-tropospheric source of wave activity over the North Pacific. This is in contrast to the observations, which show only a weak source of wave activity in this region.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS1994

Spatial variability of outgoing longwave radiation

Data from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment scanning radiometer aboard the NOAA-9 operational meteorological satellite are used to investigate the spatial variability of Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR). Daily and monthly radiation maps at 2.5 deg latitude-longitude scale are used as a basis for the study. The regions of greatest variability are in the tropics and subtropics. Storm tracks such as the South Pacific convergence zone appear as regions of high OLR variability. Spatial spectra in longitude show two regimes of OLR. At large scales (wavenumbers less than 6), the spatial spectrum is flat. For wavenumbers greater than 10, the spectra decrease as wavenumber to the -3 power. The spatial spectrum of daily anomalies from the mean is a strong function of latitude and season, with interesting features. Correlations of daily anomalies from the monthly mean decrease exponentially in latitude but have a damped-wave structure in longitude. The spatial variability of the daily maps, as measured by degree variance, have 10 times the power at degree 24 than the monthly maps, but at scales between 1 and 10, the degree variance is practically the same for daily as for monthly.

Smith, G. Louis↗
NASA NTRS1994

Global shortwave energy budget at the earth's surface from ERBE observations

A method is proposed to compute the net solar (shortwave) irradiance at the earth's surface from Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) data in the S4 format. The S4 data are monthly averaged broadband planetary albedo collected at selected times during the day. Net surface shortwave irradiance is obtained from the shortwave irradiance incident at the top of the atmosphere (known) by subtracting both the shortwave energy flux reflected by the earth-atmosphere system (measured) and the energy flux absorbed by the atmosphere (modeled). Precalculated atmospheric- and surface-dependent functions that characterize scattering and absorption in the atmosphere are used, which makes the method easily applicable and computationally efficient. Four surface types are distinguished, namely, ocean, vegetation, desert, and snow/ice. Over the tropical Pacific Ocean, the estimates based on ERBE data compare well with those obtained from International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) B3 data. For the 9 months analyzed the linear correlation coefficient and the standard difference between the two datasets are 0.95 and 14 W/sq m (about 6% of the average shortwave irradiance), respectively, and the bias is 15 W/sq m (higher ERBE values). The bias, a strong function of ISCCP satellite viewing zenith angle, is mostly in the ISCCP-based estimates. Over snow/ice, vegetation, and desert no comparison is made with other satellite-based estimates, but theoretical calculations using the discrete ordinate method suggest that over highly reflective surfaces (snow/ice, desert) the model, which accounts crudely for multiple reflection between the surface and clouds, may substantially overestimate the absorbed solar energy flux at the surface, especially when clouds are optically thick. The monthly surface shortwave irradiance fields produced for 1986 exhibit the main features characteristic of the earth's climate. As found in other studies, our values are generally higher than Esbensen and Kushnir's by as much as 80 W/sq m in the tropical oceans. A cloud parameter, defined as the difference between clear-sky and actual irradiances normalized to top-of-atmosphere clear-sky irradiance, is also examined. This parameter, minimally affected by sun zenith angle, is higher in the midlatitude regions of storm tracks than in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), suggesting that, on average, the higher cloud coverage in midlatitudes is more effective at reducing surface shortwave irradiance than opaque, convective, yet sparser clouds in the ITCZ. Surface albedo estimates are realistic, generally not exceeding 0.06 in the ocean, as high as 0.9 in polar regions, and reaching 0.5 in the Sahara and Arabian deserts.

Breon, Francois-Marie↗
NASA NTRS1994

Nonlinear equilibration of localized instabilities on a baroclinic jet

Dynamical mechanisms underlying the equilibration of absolute instability are examined in a nonlinear, quasigeostrophic, two-layer model. The key to understanding the nonlinear equilibration is in recognizing that linear absolute instabilities can be stabilized both by a reduction of the vertical shear and by enhancement of the mean barotropic velocity. In a localized domain, the equilibration process proceeds with the creation of locally convectively unstable regions downstream, which encroach onto the locally absolutely unstable region until the local instability is suppressed. That local instabilities exist only if absolutely unstable regions span a minimum size is verified by eigenvalue calculations of three-dimensional flows. Numerical examples suggest that this critical size is at least 9000 km for a wide range of parameter values chosen to investigate the midlatitude storm tracks. Fluctuations arising from local absolute instability obtain maximum amplitude in the downstream convectively unstable regions rather than in the absolutely unstable regions themselves. Together, these results suggest that if an equilibrated absolute instability were to occur in midlatitudes, a zonal band of surface easterlies exceeding 900 km would be required and the associated enhanced variances would not be found coincident with the regions of absolute instability.

Delsole, Timothy M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Simulated life cycles of persistent anticyclonic anomalies over the North Pacific: Role of synoptic-scale eddies

This study examines the role of synoptic-scale eddies during the development of persistent anticyclonic height anomalies over the central North Pacific in a general circulation model under perpetual January conditions. The General Circulation Model (GCM) replicates the basic characteristics of the evolution of the anomaly patterns found in observations. The life cycle is characterized by the rapid establishment of the major anomaly center and considerably longer maintenance and decay phases, which include the development of downstream anomaly centers. The simulation also shows a realistic evolution of synoptic-scale activity beginning with enhanced activity off the east coast of Asia prior to onset, followed by a northward shift of the Pacific storm track, which lasts throughout the maintenance phase. The initial enhancement of synoptic-scale eddy activity is associated with a large-scale cyclonic anomaly that developes over Siberia several days prior to the onset of the main anticyclonic anomaly over the central North Pacific. The observations, however, show considerable interdecadel variability in the details of the composite onset behavior; it is unclear whether this variability is real or whether it reflects differences in the data assimilation systems. The role of the time mean flow and synoptic-scale eddies in the development of the persistent Pacific anomalies is studied within the context of a kinetic energy budget in which the flow is decomposed into the time-mean, low-frequency (timescales longer than 10 days), and synoptic (timescales less than 6 days) components. The budget, which is carried out for the simulation at 500 mb, shows that the initial growth of the persistent anticyclonic anomalies is associated with barotropic conversions of energy, with approximately equal contributions coming from the mean flow and the synoptic-scale eddies. After onset the barotropic conversion from the mean flow dominates, whereas the decay phase is associated with baroclinic processes within the low-frequency flow.

Higgins, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Interannual variability in stratiform cloudiness and sea surface temperature

Marine stratiform cloudiness (MSC)(stratus, stratocumulus, and fog) is widespread over subtropical oceans west of the continents and over midlatitude oceans during summer, the season when MSC has maximum influence on surface downward radiation and is most influenced by boundary-layer processes. Long-term datasets of cloudiness and sea surface teperature (SST) from surface observations from 1952 to 1981 are used to examine interannual variations in MSC and SST. Linear correlations of anomalies in seasonal MSC amount with seasonal SST anomalies are negative and significant in midlatitude and eastern subtropical oceans, especially during summer. Significant negative correlations between SST and nimbostratus and nonprecipitating midlevel cloudiness are also observed at midlatitudes during summer, suggesting that summer storm tracks shift from year to year following year-to-year meridional shifts in the SST gradient. Over the 30-yr period, there are significant upward trends in MSC amount over the northern midlatitude oceans and a significant downward trend off the coast of California. The highest correlations and trends occur where gradients in MSC and SST are strongest. During summer, correlations between SST and MSC anomalies peak at zero lag in midlatitudes where warm advection prevails, but SST lags MSC in subtropical regions where cold advection predominates. This difference is attributed to a tendency for anomalies in latent heat flux to compensate anomalies in surface downward radiation in warm advection regions but not in cold advection regions.

Norris, Joel R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Examination of tracer transport in the NCAR CCM2 by comparison of CFCl3 simulations with ALE/GAGE observations

The latest version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) community climate model (CCM2) contains a semi-Lagrangian tracer transport scheme for the purpose of advecting water vapor and for including chemistry in the climate model. One way to diagnose the CCM2 transport is to simulate CFCl3 in the CCM2 since it has a well-known industry-based source distribution and a photochemical sink and to compare the model results to Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment/Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment ALE/GAGE observations around the globe. In this paper we focus on this comparison and discuss the synoptic scale issues of tracer transport where appropriate. We compare the model and observations on both 12-hour and monthly timescales. The higher-frequency events allow us to diagnose the synoptic scale transport in the CCM2 associated with the observational sites and to determine uncertainties in our high-resolution source distribution. We find that the CCM2 does simulate many of the key features such as pollution events and some seasonal transports, but there are still some dynamical features of tracer transport such as the storm track dynamics and cross-equatorial flow that merit further study in both the model and the real atmosphere.

Hartley, Dana E.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Decadal-to-centennial-scale climate variability: Insights into the rise and fall of the Great Salt Lake

We demonstrate connections between decadal and secular global climatic variations, and historical variations in the volume of the Great Salt Lake. The decadal variations correspond to a low-frequency shifting of storm tracks which influence winter precipitation and explain nearly 18% of the interannual and longer-term variance in the record of monthly volume change. The secular trend accounts for a more modest approximately 1.5% of the variance.

Mann, Michael E.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Performance of Nickel-Cadmium Batteries on the POES Series of Weather Satellites

The advanced Television Infrared Observation satellite program is a cooperative effort between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the United Kingdom, Canada and France, for providing day and night global environmental and associated data. NASA is responsible for procurement launch, and checkout of these spacecraft before transferring them over to NOAA, who operates the spacecraft to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking, and 'meteorological research by the National Weather Service. These spacecraft with all weather monitoring instruments imposed challenging requirements for the onboard electrical power subsystem (EPS). This paper provides first a brief overview of the overall power subsystem, followed by a description of batteries. A unique power subsystem design which provides 'tender-loving-care' to these batteries is highlighted. This is followed by the on-orbit maintenance and performance data of the batteries since launch.

Rao, Gopalakrishna M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Design and Flight Performance of NOAA-K Spacecraft Batteries

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operates the Polar Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) spacecraft (among others) to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking, and meteorological research by the National Weather Service (NWS). The latest in the POES series of spacecraft, named as NOAA-KLMNN', one is in orbit and four more are in various phases of development. The NOAA-K spacecraft was launched on May 13, 1998. Each of these spacecraft carry three Nickel-Cadmium batteries designed and manufactured by Lockheed Martin. The battery, which consists of seventeen 40 Ah cells manufactured by SAFT, provides the spacecraft power during the ascent phase, orbital eclipse and when the power demand is in excess of the solar array capability. The NOAA-K satellite is in a 98 degree inclination, 7:30AM ascending node orbit. In this orbit the satellite experiences earth occultation only 25% of the year. This paper provides a brief overview of the power subsystem, followed by the battery design and qualification, the cell life cycle test data, and the performance during launch and in orbit.

Rao, Gopalakrishna M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Performance of Nickel-Cadmium Batteries on the GOES I-K Series of Weather Satellites

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operates the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) spacecraft (among others) to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking, and meteorological research by the National Weather Service (NWS). The latest in the GOES series consists of 5 spacecraft (originally named GOES I-M), three of which are in orbit and two more in development. Each of five spacecraft carry two Nickel-Cadmium batteries, with batteries designed and manufactured by Space Systems Loral (SS/L) and cells manufactured by Gates Aerospace Batteries (sold to SAFT in 1993). The battery, which consists of 28 cells with a 12 Ah capacity, provides the spacecraft power needs during the ascent phase and during the semi-annual eclipse seasons lasting for approximately 45 days each. The maximum duration eclipses are 72 minutes long which result in a 60 percent depth of discharge (DOD) of the batteries. This paper provides a description of the batteries, reconditioning setup, DOD profile during a typical eclipse season, and flight performance from the 3 launched spacecraft (now GOES 8, 9, and 10) in orbit.

Singhal, Sat P.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Decadal Air-Sea Interaction in the North Atlantic Based on Observations and Modeling Results

The decadal, 12-14 year, cycle observed in the North Atlantic SST and tide gauge data was examined using the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, COADS data and an ocean model simulation. Besides this decadal mode, a shorter, subdecadal period of about 8 years exists in tide gauge data north of 40N, in the subpolar SST and in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and in subpolar winter heat flux values. The decadal cycle is a well separated mode in a singular spectrum analysis (SSA) for a time series of SST EOF mode 1 with a center over the Gulf Stream extension. Tide gauge and SST data are consistent in that both show a significant subdecadal periodicity exclusively in the subpolar gyre, but in subtropics the 12-14 year period is the prominent, but nonstationary, decadal signal. The main finding of this study is that this 12-14 year cycle can be constructed based on the leading mode of the surface heat flux. This connection to the surface heat flux implicates the participation of the thermohaline circulation in the decadal cycle. During the cycle starting from the positive index phase of NAO, SST and oceanic heat content anomalies are created in subtropics due to local heat flux and intensification of the thermohaline circulation. The anomalies advect to the subpolar gyre where they are amplified by local heat flux and are part of the negative feedback of thermohaline circulation on itself. Consequently the oceanic thermohaline circulation slows down and the opposite cycle starts. The oscillatory nature would not be possible without the active atmospheric participation in the cycle, because it provides the unstable interaction through heat flux, without it, the oceanic mode would be damped. This analysis suggests that the two principal modes of heat flux variability, corresponding to patterns similar to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Western Atlantic (WA), are part of the same decadal cycle and an indirect measure of the north-south movement of the storm tracks.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗
NASA NTRS1998

Performance of Nickel-Cadmium Batteries on the GOES 1-K Series of Weather Satellites

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operates the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) spacecraft (among others) to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking, and meteorological research by the National Weather Service (NWS). The latest in the GOES series consists of five spacecraft (originally named GOES 1-M), three of which are in orbit and and two more in development. Each of the five spacecraft carries two Nickel-Cadmium battery, with batteries designed by Space Systems Loral (SS/L) and cells manufactured by Gates Aerospace Batteries (sold to SAFT in 1993). The battery, which consists of 28 cells with a 12 Ah capacity, provides the spacecraft power needs during the ascent phase and during the semi-annual eclipse seasons lasting for approximately 45 days each. The maximum duration eclipses are 72 minutes long which result in a 60 percent depth of discharge (DOD) of the batteries. This paper provides a description of the batteries, reconditioning setup, DOD profile during a typical eclipse season, and flight performance from the three launched spacecraft (now GOES 8, 9, and 10) in orbit.

Singhal, Sat P.↗