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At least 109 records · Page 6

Nonlinear behavior of urban flood peaks in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region

Urbanization, i.e., increasing urban development areas in a watershed, is well known as a major cause of increasing flood magnitudes. This study analyzes the observed flood peaks at 262 watersheds in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region with varying levels of urban development and free from reservoir impacts. Our analysis reveals an interesting, V-shaped nonlinear behavior: flood peaks first decrease and then increase with increasing percentage of urban development area at the watershed scale (PDAW), with the shift occurring at a PDAW threshold of around 10%. Regression analyses suggest that the V-shaped pattern primarily results from complex interactions among climate conditions (e.g., storm-event rainfall) and landscape properties (e.g., elevation, distance to the coast). A neural network model was then developed to capture such interactions, satisfactorily reproducing the V-shaped pattern with an R-squared value of 0.58, RMSE of 6.72 mm/day, and NSE of 0.55. These findings highlight the need to account for nonlinear dynamics in flood prediction and management in the coastal environment.

flood peaks↗

Understanding aerosol properties in convective outflows during TRACER

Convective outflow boundaries commonly form across the southeastern U.S., often originating from storms initiated along sea-breeze fronts. As outflows spread, merge, and collide, they frequently trigger secondary convection in air masses already modified by primary storm outflow. This resulting air mass carries a distinctive aerosol population, which can influence the development of secondary convective cells. During the U.S. DOE TRACER field campaign in summer 2022, we investigated how outflows affect aerosol size, composition, and hygroscopicity across Greater Houston, Texas. Using a novel detection algorithm, we identified and verified 72 outflow boundaries from surface meteorological observations. In the relatively simple continental environment northwest of Houston, a common relationship emerged between CCN-inferred hygroscopicity (κ) and size-resolved aerosol concentrations. The κ of aerosols typically decreased in size ranges where aerosol concentrations increased following outflow passage and increased where concentrations decreased. In contrast, at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement’s (ARM) fixed site in La Porte, Texas, the aerosol response depended on outflow direction, shaped by concentrated industrial and shipping activity to the north and south/southeast along the Houston Ship Channel. Concurrent size distribution and composition changes suggested case-specific variability in κ, with either reinforcing or offsetting effects. Outflows passing over industrial/shipping sectors often promoted less hygroscopic aerosol populations while cleaner residential outflows often favored more hygroscopic aerosol populations. These results highlight key aerosol changes following outflow passage, providing a foundation for improved understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions related to secondary convection initiation along or in the wake of outflow boundaries.

Thompson, Seth A. [Texas A & M Univ., College Stat↗

Scientific challenges to characterizing the wind resource in the marine atmospheric boundary layer

Abstract. With the increasing level of offshore wind energy investment, it is correspondingly important to be able to accurately characterize the wind resource in terms of energy potential as well as operating conditions affecting wind plant performance, maintenance, and lifespan. Accurate resource assessment at a particular site supports investment decisions. Following construction, accurate wind forecasts are needed to support efficient power markets and integration of wind power with the electrical grid. To optimize the design of wind turbines, it is necessary to accurately describe the environmental characteristics, such as precipitation and waves, that erode turbine surfaces and generate structural loads as a complicated response to the combined impact of shear, atmospheric turbulence, and wave stresses. Despite recent considerable progress both in improvements to numerical weather prediction models and in coupling these models to turbulent flows within wind plants, major challenges remain, especially in the offshore environment. Accurately simulating the interactions among winds, waves, wakes, and their structural interactions with offshore wind turbines requires accounting for spatial (and associated temporal) scales from O(1 m) to O(100 km). Computing capabilities for the foreseeable future will not be able to resolve all of these scales simultaneously, necessitating continuing improvement in subgrid-scale parameterizations within highly nonlinear models. In addition, observations to constrain and validate these models, especially in the rotor-swept area of turbines over the ocean, remains largely absent. Thus, gaining sufficient understanding of the physics of atmospheric flow within and around wind plants remains one of the grand challenges of wind energy, particularly in the offshore environment. This paper provides a review of prominent scientific challenges to characterizing the offshore wind resource using as examples phenomena that occur in the rapidly developing wind energy areas off the United States. Such phenomena include horizontal temperature gradients that lead to strong vertical stratification; consequent features such as low-level jets and internal boundary layers; highly nonstationary conditions, which occur with both extratropical storms (e.g., nor'easters) and tropical storms; air–sea interaction, including deformation of conventional wind profiles by the wave boundary layer; and precipitation with its contributions to leading-edge erosion of wind turbine blades. The paper also describes the current state of modeling and observations in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and provides specific recommendations for filling key current knowledge gaps.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Roadmap for a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge

This document is a roadmap for building an interconnected model of the physical processes that produce a lightning discharge, and its observable optical and radio signals. We call this a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge, recognizing that significant effort and coordination of human and financial resources is required to realize the capability. The roadmap serves to outline the coordination of resources necessary to enable stitching together existing knowledge and model components to make a lightning prediction, and to test these predictions with observations. Such a capability does not currently exist. The roadmap is motivated not only by a spirit of scientific inquiry, but by practical challenges faced by US Federal and societal stakeholders. Advancements in lightning observations have outpaced our tests of integrated understanding, leaving many stakeholders unsure how to design their missions to properly detect and discriminate lightning, and unsure how to apply the sometimes-disagreeing lightning signals from diverse instruments. The time is right to connect existing theories and models to support stakeholders in understanding the signals they observe, for needs as diverse as climate monitoring, national security, weather forecasting, public safety, and protection of natural and built environments. The roadmap’s two main technical sections describe the components of a linked physical model, followed by a description of models of lightning signals and sensors that are driven by outputs from the physical model. The goal is to predict the time-varying physical properties of lightning that are self-consistent with the thunderstorm’s structure and dynamics. These lightning signals then propagate through the storm, with realistic dispersion and attenuation, to receivers on the ground or in space. At a high level, the model begins with weather (cloud) model output, including explicit prediction of the electrification of cloud particles. The cloud’s electrical structure drives a model of lightning physics, from initiation, through channel development, and discharges along those channels. Key lightning parameters, such as the temperature and currents in the channel, and their space and time distribution, are then used to produce optical and electromagnetic signal sources that propagate to modeled receivers. This architecture therefore generates a dataset suitable for comparison to existing and envisioned observing systems. The need for additional measurements and field campaigns to support model development is described. In each model sub-component, inputs, outputs, uncertainties, evaluation methods, and next steps are summarized, interleaved with references to the scientific literature. Identifying boundaries between the model sub-components aids in segmenting an integrated, complex model into practical work packages and system sub-components, allowing a diverse team to contribute and maintain the system. We estimate that at least five years of effort and a $\$$10M initial investment is necessary to make a significant step forward. Mechanisms to facilitate community coordination, including annual workshops and open-source code repositories, are described.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Y-12 National Security Complex Biological Monitoring and Abatement Program—2024 Calendar Year Report

This report provides the results of the CY 2024 sampling of East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) as part of the Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) Biological Monitoring and Abatement Program (BMAP). The results are presented in the context of historical trends. The Y-12 BMAP was developed in 1985 to demonstrate that the effluent limits established for Y-12 protected the classified uses of the receiving stream, particularly the growth and propagation of aquatic life (Loar et al. 1989). Over the years, the BMAP has become an important and valuable long-term measure of stream conditions resulting from actions and activities at the Y-12 Complex. The BMAP currently consists of three tasks: (1) bioaccumulation monitoring, (2) benthic macroinvertebrate community monitoring, and (3) fish community monitoring. The benthic macroinvertebrate community monitoring task includes studies to evaluate the receiving stream’s biological integrity annually in comparison with Tennessee Water Quality Criteria following Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC) protocols. In addition to presenting the EFPC biological monitoring results, this report includes results from Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act–funded BMAP programs in Bear Creek and McCoy Branch (presented in Appendixes A and B, respectively), as required in the Y-12 National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit. Additional biological testing at the Y-12 Complex includes toxicity testing of select storm drains as required in the NPDES permit. Although toxicity testing is not formally part of the BMAP, toxicity testing results from 2024 are provided in Appendix C.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TRACER-Uncrewed Aircraft System (TRACER-UAS) Field Campaign Report

Convective processes drive the development of clouds across a variety of scales, thereby playing a central role in governing weather and climate globally. These processes help to set the stage for circulations that redistribute heat and moisture throughout the lower atmosphere, and simultaneously develop storms that supply precipitation to regions that depend on such rain events for supporting a variety of societal needs. At the same time, extreme precipitation events can result in localized flooding of low-lying areas, posing hazards to transportation and regional inhabitants, and potentially damaging structures and infrastructure. As a result, there is an inherent need to better understand the drivers and modulators of clouds and precipitation and leverage such understanding to make projections of how these important systems may evolve with a changing climate. With nearly three billion of Earth’s human inhabitants living within 200 km of a shoreline, development of such understanding is particularly important in coastal regimes. Central drivers of convective cloud development and life cycle in coastal environments include synoptic forcing, local meso- and microscale circulation regimes, microphysical evolution, and aerosol properties. Atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) development and its evolution can help drive the formation and organization of convective clouds, which then impart their own controls through dynamic processes related to latent heating and cooling (including cold-pool formation and propagation), three-dimensional radiative effects, and background environmental conditions (Fan et al. 2016). Such clouds have been contributing to record precipitation events in southeast Texas in recent years, relative to the last several decades of data from regional precipitation gauges (Fagnant et al. 2020). The greater Houston urban area has experienced particularly large increases in the frequency of extreme rainfall events, with enhanced intensity of extreme events (stretching of distribution tails) having potentially significant implications for watershed floodplain planning and mapping in greater Houston and Harris County. While the most extreme precipitation events were associated with tropical cyclones (e.g., Tropical Storm Allison and Hurricane Harvey; Blood 2014, Kao et al. 2019), strong thunderstorms can also deliver large amounts of precipitation over the area over relatively short periods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Convective-Environmental Interactions in the Tropics

During the four years of this grant performance, the PI and her research group have made a number of significant contributions toward better understanding convective processes over the Amazon. First, she made available to the broader community a two-year data set of convective storm metrics based on SIPAM radar data from the central Amazon that has been utilized widely. Second, her students analyzed cold pool and heating characteristics of Amazonian convection and showed in heretofore unknown ways how both can impact new convective initiation (e.g., through multiple cold pool interactions and gravity waves formed via pulsed heating). Finally, her group more broadly showed how Amazonian and Indian Ocean convection interacts with the large-scale environment, especially low-level winds (e.g., the nocturnal Amazonian low-level jet) and deeper tropospheric moisture, to help it organize and how this interaction is represented in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Arctic

The Arctic environment in 2024 continued on a trajectory that has put it in a state far different from that of the twentieth century. Ongoing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to quickly warm the Arctic, resulting in rapid changes in the cryosphere that are driving cascading impacts to climate, ecological, and societal systems. Many weather- and climate-related impacts in the Arctic are the result of compounding change, such as increased riverbank erosion, which is proximately due to increased river discharge from higher seasonal precipitation, yet is also exacerbated by thawing permafrost. However, even individual storms occur within very different ocean and ice conditions than were typically present in the late twentieth century. As a result, the impacts, including high winds, excessive precipitation, and coastal inundation, may be quite different nowadays, as exemplified by the October 2024 storm in northwest Alaska that produced severe coastal flooding in several communities. To share some of these impacts with a wider audience, select extreme weather impacts around the greater Arctic have been highlighted through the inclusion of sidebars in recent State of the Climate Arctic chapters (e.g., Benestad et al. 2023; Thoman et al. 2024).

Thoman, Richard L. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK↗

Mid-century climate change impacts on tornado-producing tropical cyclones

Tornadoes are a co-occurring extreme that can be produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). These tornadoes can exacerbate the loss of life and property damage caused by the TC from which they were spawned. It is uncertain how the severe weather environments of landfalling TCs may change in a future climate and how this could impact tornado activity from TCs. In this study, we investigated four TCs that made landfall in the U.S. and produced large tornado outbreaks. We performed four-member ensembles of convective-allowing (4-km resolution) regional climate model simulations representing each TC in the historical climate and a mid-twenty-first century future climate. To identify potentially tornadic storms, or TC-tornado (TCT) surrogates, we used thresholds for three-hourly maximum updraft helicity and radar reflectivity, as tornadoes are not resolved in the model. We found that the ensemble-mean number of TCT-surrogates increased substantially (56–299%) in the future, supported by increases in most-unstable convective available potential energy, surface-to-700-hPa bulk wind shear, and 0–1-km storm-relative helicity in the tornado-producing region of the TCs. On the other hand, future changes in most-unstable convective inhibition had minimal influence on future TCT-surrogates. This provides robust evidence that tornado activity from TCs may increase in the future. Furthermore, TCT-surrogate frequency between 00Z and 09Z increased for three of the four cases, suggesting enhanced tornado activity at night, when people are asleep and more likely to miss warnings. All of these factors indicate that TC-tornadoes may become more frequent and a greater hazard in the future, compounding impacts from future increases in TC winds and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Annual Site Environmental Report (2019)

Los Alamos National Laboratory’s (the Laboratory’s) annual site environmental reports are prepared by the Laboratory’s environmental organizations, as required by U.S. Department of Energy Order 231.1B, Administrative Change 1, Environment, Safety, and Health Reporting, and Order 458.1, Administrative Change 3, Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment. The following chapters in this report discuss our success in complying with environmental laws, regulations, and orders (Chapter 2, Compliance Summary); how we manage the Laboratory’s environmental performance (Chapter 3, Environmental Programs); how we monitor for air emissions of radioactive materials and climate conditions (Chapter 4, Air Quality); how we monitor for effects of Laboratory operations on groundwater quality (Chapter 5, Groundwater Protection); how we monitor the movement of chemicals and radionuclides by storm water runoff and the levels of chemicals and radionuclides in deposited sediment (Chapter 6, Watershed Quality); how we monitor for the presence, levels, and effects of chemicals and radionuclides in plants, animals, and soil (Chapter 7, Ecosystem Health); and finally, what radionuclide dose or risk from chemical exposure members of the public may experience as a result of Laboratory operations (Chapter 8, Public Dose and Risk Assessment).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

ASER Annual Site Environmental Report 2020

Los Alamos National Laboratory’s (the Laboratory’s) annual site environmental reports are prepared each year by the Laboratory’s environmental organizations, as required by U.S. Department of Energy Order 231.1B, Administrative Change 1, Environment, Safety, and Health Reporting, and Order 458.1, Administrative Change 4, Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment. The following chapters in this report discuss our success in complying with environmental laws, regulations, and orders (Chapter 2, Compliance Summary); how we manage the Laboratory’s environmental performance (Chapter 3, Environmental Programs and Analytical Data Quality); how we monitor for air emissions of radioactive materials and climate conditions (Chapter 4, Air Quality); how we monitor for effects of Laboratory operations on groundwater quality (Chapter 5, Groundwater Protection); how we monitor the movement of chemicals and radionuclides by storm water runoff and the levels of chemicals and radionuclides in deposited sediment (Chapter 6, Watershed Quality); how we monitor for the presence, levels, and effects of chemicals and radionuclides in plants, animals, soil, and vegetation (Chapter 7, Ecosystem Health); and finally, what radionuclide dose or risk from chemical exposure members of the public may experience as a result of Laboratory operations (Chapter 8, Public Dose and Risk Assessment).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Automated Model for Improved Mapping of Country-Scale High-Resolution Coastal Bathymetry

Accurate and up-to-date maps of coastal bathymetry are critical for a variety of sectors from vessel navigation to port construction and are increasingly vital to inform coastal infrastructure management amid accelerating sea-level rise and more frequent and severe storm-surge events. The primary challenges to accurate and efficient bathymetric mapping from optical remote sensing are: accurately modeling light attenuation in both the atmosphere and water column; and inefficient data processing pipelines for highresolution satellite imagery. To address the effects of light attenuation within the water-column we have developed a novel physics-based bathymetry model that accounts for variations in water-column inherent optical properties on a pixel-by-pixel basis in optically-shallow aquatic environments, which represents a major advancement. For applications to satellite imagery, we have developed a software package that automatically applies the robust 6S atmospheric correction algorithm, estimates the bottom depth from the physics-based bathymetry model, which corrects for attenuation by suspended particulate matter and colored dissolved organic matter in the water column on a pixel-by-pixel basis, and leverages highperformance computing for rapid application to region-scale (e.g., CONUS) 2-meter resolution imagery datasets. Our approach is tailored to sensors that collect data at two-meter resolution with high return times for frequent updates. We mapped 591 WorldView satellite images for Florida, North Carolina, and Alaska and validated the maps against LiDAR-derived bathymetry data. Results show median RMSE of 1.75, 1.59, and 2.67 meters, respectively. By combining the strengths of Oak Ridge National Laboratory in high-performance computing and remote-sensing science with the water-column modeling expertise of Scripps Institution of Oceanography we advance the state of bathymetric mapping capability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Benchmark to Test Generalization Capabilities of Deep Learning Methods to Classify Severe Convective Storms in a Changing Climate

Abstract This is a test case study assessing the ability of deep learning methods to generalize to a future climate (end of 21st century) when trained to classify thunderstorms in model output representative of the present‐day climate. A convolutional neural network (CNN) was trained to classify strongly rotating thunderstorms from a current climate created using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at high‐resolution, then evaluated against thunderstorms from a future climate and found to perform with skill and comparatively in both climates. Despite training with labels derived from a threshold value of a severe thunderstorm diagnostic (updraft helicity), which was not used as an input attribute, the CNN learned physical characteristics of organized convection and environments that are not captured by the diagnostic heuristic. Physical features were not prescribed but rather learned from the data, such as the importance of dry air at mid‐levels for intense thunderstorm development when low‐level moisture is present (i.e., convective available potential energy). Explanation techniques also revealed that thunderstorms classified as strongly rotating are associated with learned rotation signatures. Results show that the creation of synthetic data with ground truth is a viable alternative to human‐labeled data and that a CNN is able to generalize a target using learned features that would be difficult to encode due to spatial complexity. Most importantly, results from this study show that deep learning is capable of generalizing to future climate extremes and can exhibit out‐of‐sample robustness with hyperparameter tuning in certain applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Who Has the Upper HAND in a Hurricane? Flood Risk, Weather Shocks, and Property Prices

Flood risk is increasing in the United States, but how property markets respond to this hazard is unclear. Focusing on Houston, Texas, we analyze changes in flood risk capitalization in property prices after three major Gulf Coast hurricanes. Here, we compare two measures of flood risk–floodplain designations from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and a hydrologically-imputed, continuous measure, Height Above the Nearest Drainage (HAND). HAND affects property prices after a storm in intuitive ways, while we observe counterintuitive post-storm price premiums within FEMA floodplains. Plausibly exogenous measures like HAND may be useful tools for characterizing flood risk in economic analyses.

Plough, Julian A. [University of North Carolina, C↗

Compound flood simulations indicate rising public exposure to sewage-contaminated waters in Waikīkī, Hawai‘i

Waikīkī, Hawai‘i serves as a valuable case study for flood vulnerability due to its low elevation, present-day exposure to multiple flood sources, and role as the state’s economic engine. This study applies the high-resolution, open-source WRF-Hydro-CUFA (Coastal Urban Flood Application) model to simulate compound flood interactions among pluvial, fluvial, coastal, storm drain-driven, and subsurface processes, and to evaluate how flood characteristics in Waikīkī evolve under projected sea-level rise (SLR). Simulated water levels in an estuarine drainage canal, serving as the primary outlet for gravity-flow drainage from Waikīkī, show strong agreement with observations (r ≥ 0.935, R 2 ≥ 0.874), accurately reproducing flooding observed during recent 5-year and 50-year storm events. Simulations incorporating SLR demonstrate a shift in dominant flood drivers as sea levels rise. In addition, results identify critical thresholds at which elevated estuarine tailwater conditions cause widespread drainage backflow, eventually occurring in the absence of rainfall. These findings suggest that tidally driven flooding will progressively dominate over rainfall-driven events, increasing public exposure to highly contaminated canal and groundwater sources. The results underscore the urgent need to integrate water quality issues and drainage failure into coastal flood management strategies for low-lying urban environments, particularly those reliant on polluted estuarine waterways for stormwater management.

Compound flooding↗

Los Alamos National Laboratory 2022 Annual Site Environmental Report (Rev. 2)

Los Alamos National Laboratory (Laboratory) annual site environmental reports are prepared each year by the Laboratory’s environmental organizations as required by U.S. Department of Energy Order 231.1B, Administrative Change 1, Environment, Safety, and Health Reporting, and Order 458.1, Administrative Change 4, Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment. The chapters in this report discuss our compliance with environmental laws, regulations, and orders (Chapter 2, Compliance Summary); how we manage the Laboratory’s environmental performance and assure the quality of data from analysis of environmental samples (Chapter 3, Environmental Programs and Analytical Data Quality); how we monitor for air emissions of radioactive materials and for weather conditions (Chapter 4, Air Quality); how we monitor for effects of Laboratory operations on groundwater quality (Chapter 5, Groundwater Protection); how we monitor the levels of chemicals and radionuclides in storm water runoff and sediment (Chapter 6, Watershed Quality); how we monitor for the levels and effects of chemicals and radionuclides in plants, animals, soil, and vegetation (Chapter 7, Ecosystem Health); and finally, what radioactive dose or risk from chemical exposure that members of the public could experience as a result of Laboratory operations (Chapter 8, Public Dose and Risk Assessment).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Urbanization Impact on Regional Climate and Extreme Weather: Current Understanding, Uncertainties, and Future Research Directions

Abstract Urban environments lie at the confluence of social, cultural, and economic activities and have unique biophysical characteristics due to continued infrastructure development that generally replaces natural landscapes with built-up structures. The vast majority of studies on urban perturbation of local weather and climate have been centered on the urban heat island (UHI) effect, referring to the higher temperature in cities compared to their natural surroundings. Besides the UHI effect and heat waves, urbanization also impacts atmospheric moisture, wind, boundary layer structure, cloud formation, dispersion of air pollutants, precipitation, and storms. In this review article, we first introduce the datasets and methods used in studying urban areas and their impacts through both observation and modeling and then summarize the scientific insights on the impact of urbanization on various aspects of regional climate and extreme weather based on more than 500 studies. We also highlight the major research gaps and challenges in our understanding of the impacts of urbanization and provide our perspective and recommendations for future research priorities and directions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The RAM-SCB model and its applications to advance space weather forecasting

Energetic particle fluxes that are part of the Earth’s ring current and radiation belts can intensify significantly during space weather events like geomagnetic storms and could cause severe damage to satellite-based technologies. Understanding the physical processes that control their dynamics and improving our capability for their prediction is thus extremely important. In the context of space weather applications and user needs, this paper provides a brief description of our kinetic ring current-atmosphere interactions model with self-consistent magnetic field (RAM-SCB) and its further extension to implement a self-consistent electric (E) field. Specific examples that demonstrate RAM-SCB capabilities and limitations to reproduce the near-Earth space weather environment are given. In this paper, the current status of RAM-SCB is assessed and plans for its further improvement are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗