SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Stock Model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Impact Analysis of Transitioning to Heat Pump Rooftop Units for the U.S. Commercial Building Stock: Preprint

20% of the U.S. commercial building sector's energy usage is from on-site combustion of fossil fuels for heating. Decarbonization will require electrification of these systems to meet climate goals, often by transitioning to heat pumps. Rooftop units (RTU) are the most prominent commercial building HVAC system type and should therefore be prioritized for decarbonization solutions. However, there is limited understanding of the impact on emissions that considers regional electricity generation methods, as well as the impact of other heat pump intricacies such as the effects of temperature on capacity/efficiency, defrost operation, realistic sizing methodologies, and supplementary heating. This study explores the effects of transitioning all conventional RTUs to high-performance heat pump RTUs for the U.S. commercial building stock. The analysis is performed using ComStock, DOE's calibrated model of the U.S. commercial building stock developed by NREL. Results show 9% and 17% reductions in stock aggregate energy consumption and GHG emissions, respectively. Furthermore, average heat pump operational details are presented by state. This analysis will help inform the transition to heat pump RTUs for the U.S. commercial building stock.

commercial building electrification↗

DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Global Aboveground Biomass Estimates From Satellite Observations and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

The global forest carbon stocks represent the amount of carbon stored in woody vegetation and are important for quantifying the ability of the global forests to sequester atmospheric CO 2 and to provide ecosystem services (e.g., timber) under climate change. The forest ecosystem carbon pool estimates are highly variable and poorly quantified in areas lacking forest inventory estimates. Here, we compare and analyze aboveground biomass (AGB) estimates from five satellite-based global data sets and nine dynamic global vegetation models (DVGMs). We find that across the data sets, mean AGB exhibits the largest variability around the tropical area. In addition, AGB shows a similar latitudinal trend but large variability among the data sets. Satellite-based AGB estimates are lower than those simulated by DVGMs. The divergence among the satellite-based AGB estimates can be driven by the methodology, input satellite products, and the forested areas used to estimate AGB. The modeled NPP, autotrophic respiration, and carbon allocation mostly drive the variability of AGB simulated by DGVMs. The future availability of a high-quality global forest area map is anticipated to improve AGB estimate accuracy and to reduce the discrepancies among different satellite- and model-based AGB estimates. Furthermore, we suggest the carbon-modeling community reexamine the methodology used to estimate AGB and forested areas for a more robust global forest carbon stock estimation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Respiration regimes in rivers: Partitioning source–specific respiration from metabolism time series

Respiration in streams is controlled by the timing, magnitude, and quality of organic matter (OM) inputs from internal primary production and external fluxes. Here, we estimated the contribution of different OM sources to seasonal, annual, and event-driven characteristics of whole-stream ecosystem respiration (ER) using an inverse modeling framework that accounts for possible time-lags between OM inputs and respiration. We modeled site-specific, dynamic OM stocks contributing to ER: autochthonous OM from gross primary production (GPP); allochthonous OM delivered during flow events; and seasonal pulses of leaf litter. OM stored in the sediment and dissolved organic matter (DOM) transported during baseflow were modeled as a stable stock contributing to baseline respiration. We applied this modeling framework to five streams with different catchment size, climate, and canopy cover, where multi-year time series of ER and environmental variables were available. Overall, the model explained between 53% and 74% of observed ER dynamics. Respiration of autochthonous OM tracked seasonal peaks in GPP in spring or summer. Increases in ER were often associated with high-flow events. Respiration associated with litter inputs was larger in smaller streams. Time lags between leaf inputs and respiration were longer than for other OM sources, likely due to lower biological reactivity. Model estimates of source-specific ER and OM stocks compared well with existing measures of OM stocks, inputs, and respiration or decomposition. Our modeling approach has the potential to expand the scale of comparative analyses of OM dynamics within and among freshwater ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Economizers

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: LED Lighting

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock and ComStock models over the past three years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a timeseries profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each timestep. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure - LED lighting. The LED lighting measure replaces interior lights with LEDs where applicable. The measure resulted in 1.25 TBtu energy savings across the building stock, with the majority of savings occurring in retail and warehouse buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Upgrade Package Documentation: LED Lighting, HP-RTU and ASHP-Boiler

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock and ComStock models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) upgrade measures, or upgrades. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility upgrade applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on an upgrade package of three end-use savings shapes upgrades - Light Emitting Diode (LED) Lighting, Heat Pump Rooftop Unit (RTU) (HP-RTU), and Air-Source Heat Pump (ASHP) Boiler, which we will refer to collectively as the "Interior Lighting and Heat Pump" package. More details on the individual upgrades can be found on the ComStock Measures Documentation page. An upgrade package applies two or more EUSS upgrades to a single building model simulation. Since ComStock is a bottom-up physics-based model, an upgrade package will go beyond aggregating or summing the individual upgrade results and produce novel results by simulating interactions between the upgrades. For example, pairing an envelope upgrade with an electrification upgrade would likely result in higher savings results than the sum of these upgrades individually, and the size of the heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment may be reduced if the envelope upgrade reduces the loads significantly.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Upgrade Package Documentation: Wall and Roof Insulation and New Windows

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock and ComStock models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) upgrade measures, or upgrades. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility upgrade applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on an upgrade package of three end-use savings shapes upgrades - Window Replacement, Exterior Wall Insulation, and Roof Insulation, which we will refer to collectively as the "High Efficiency Envelope" package. More details on the individual upgrades can be found on the ComStock Measures Documentation page. An upgrade package applies two or more EUSS upgrades to a single building model simulation. Since ComStock is a bottom-up physics-based model, an upgrade package will go beyond aggregating or summing the individual upgrade results and produce novel results by simulating interactions between the upgrades. For example, pairing an envelope upgrade with an electrification upgrade would likely result in higher savings results than the sum of these upgrades individually, and the size of the heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment may be reduced if the envelope upgrade reduces the loads significantly.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

A High-Granularity Approach to Modeling Energy Consumption and Savings Potential in the U.S. Residential Building Stock: Preprint

Building simulations are increasingly used in various applications related to energy efficient buildings. For individual buildings, applications include: design of new buildings, prediction of retrofit savings, ratings, performance path code compliance and qualification for incentives. Beyond individual building applications, larger scale applications (across the stock of buildings at various scales: national, regional and state) include: codes and standards development, utility program design, regional/state planning, and technology assessments. For these sorts of applications, a set of representative buildings are typically simulated to predict performance of the entire population of buildings. Focusing on the U.S. single-family residential building stock, this paper will describe how multiple data sources for building characteristics are combined into a highly-granular database that preserves the important interdependencies of the characteristics. We will present the sampling technique used to generate a representative set of thousands (up to hundreds of thousands) of building models. We will also present results of detailed calibrations against building stock consumption data.

building stock↗

DOE OSTI2023

U.S. Commercial Building Stock Analysis of COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the importance of improving building indoor air quality to reduce occupants' chances of contracting airborne illness. The ASHRAE Epidemic Task Force (ASHRAE-ETF) released several COVID-19 mitigation strategies at the onset of the pandemic. This study explores four of those recommendations for reducing transmission of COVID-19 inside buildings: (1) 100% outdoor air ventilation, (2) MERV-13 or better filters, (3) demand control ventilation removal, and (4) HVAC flushing mode. These recommendations were simulated and assessed using ComStock, a model of the U.S. commercial building stock. The study showed the 100% outdoor air ventilation recommendation had the largest impact on energy consumption, noncoincident peak demand, and thermostat violations. Removing demand control ventilation had the smallest national aggregate impact, installing MERV-13 filters led to slight increases in energy use and peak demand, and HVAC outdoor air flushing led to modest energy use and peak demand increases.

building energy modelling↗

DOE OSTI2024

Model output from simulations of manganese-carbon interactions in temperate forest soil profiles

This archive contains model output, code, and scripts for simulations of coupled manganese-carbon cycling in temperate forest soil profiles. These model results were generated as part of a study investigating how manganese availability influences soil organic carbon stocks and demonstrating a new model framework for coupling carbon and manganese cycling. The simulations were in support of a manuscript: "Modeling interactive effects of manganese bioavailability, nitrogen deposition, and warming on soil carbon storage." The study addresses the research questions: How does Mn bioavailability, as driven by subsurface mineral properties, pH, and redox status, affect temperate forest soil organic carbon and litter carbon stocks?How is the relationship between Mn bioavailability and carbon cycling affected by changes in temperature and nitrogen deposition?"Model simulations were conducted in a reactive transport modeling framework using PFLOTRAN coupled to python. Multiple model simulations testing different Mn-bearing mineral solubilities, hydrological patterns, nitrogen deposition rates, and temperatures are included. Soil properties, including total and exchangeable Mn concentrations, are based on values reported for the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (SSHCZO), a temperate forested watershed in central Pennsylvania, U.S.A where Mn cycling through vegetation has been documented.File formats include netCDF (.nc), python script (.py), shell script (.sh), plain text PFLOTRAN input file (.in), and plain text PFLOTRAN database file (.dat), and gzipped tar archive (tar.gz).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Blending Behavioral Science and Physics-Based Models Inform Equitable Decarbonization Pathways in the US Housing Stock: Preprint

A just energy transition is an imperative of the Biden-Harris Administration, emphasizing the equitable distribution of benefits through energy-efficient and decarbonizing household technologies. Understanding the factors that increase a household's willingness to adopt these technologies helps policymakers implement more targeted and effective approaches. Our research addresses this by blending 550,000 housing stock types and energy simulation data with a nationally representative survey on residential technology adoption and decision-making (n=10,000). We identify energy equity gaps across tenure and income, highlighting disparities in energy burdens and insecurity. Findings show that households with prior modification experience are more willing to renovate, suggesting that small-scale retrofit programs could foster greater willingness. Energy secure but burdened homeowners are least willing to modify, highlighting the need to consider energy bill perceptions in policy design. Nearly half of US households that are energy burdened also face energy insecurity, with a significant gap in assistance for low-income households. We emphasize the need to understand household perceptions to improve policy. This research underscores the importance of understanding household behaviors to improve policy effectiveness, offering actionable insights for policymakers to promote equitable housing upgrades and advance a decarbonized future.

behavioral science↗

DOE OSTI2025

Demography, dynamics and data: building confidence for simulating changes in the world's forests

Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) are advanced tools for simulating forest responses to climate and land-use changes, and are essential for projecting carbon cycling and large-scale forest management strategies. Despite their increasing incorporation into Earth System Models, VDMs differ in their demographic assumptions, with no prior quantitative comparison of their performance. We benchmarked nine VDMs against observational data from boreal, temperate and tropical sites, assessing their accuracy in predicting tree growth, carbon turnover, biomass stocks and size distributions. Models were simulated under consistent climate conditions with postdisturbance recovery monitored for at least 420 yr. Postdisturbance carbon recovery trajectories showed significant variability while remaining within observational ranges. Initial regrowth rates varied substantially (0.03-0.60, 0.18-0.70 and 0.35-1.10 kgCm-2 yr-1 for boreal, temperate and tropical sites, respectively), influenced by each model's initial forest state. Models captured mature forest carbon content but showed compensating effects between overestimated growth and underestimated mortality rates. This first multi-model benchmarking identifies growth and mortality rates as critical calibration targets and highlights the need to refine postdisturbance establishment conditions for model development. We outline specific benchmarking variables needed to improve predictions of forest responses to environmental change.

demographic vegetation model benchmarking↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying policy gaps for achieving the net-zero GHG emissions target in the U.S. light-duty vehicle market through electrification

The U.S. light-duty vehicle (LDV) industry, a major greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting sector, is embracing decarbonization. Considering only electrification pathways, this study uses publicly-available tools – MA3T and VISION on vehicle market penetration, fleet accounting and life-cycle analysis to quantify the policy gaps for LDVs to achieve the net-zero GHG emissions target in nine vehicle penetration cases under two electricity mix scenarios, including the U.S. administration's decarbonization strategy – 100% clean electricity by 2035. The MA3T model is a multinomial discrete choice model for market share projection by vehicle technology, and the VISION is a vehicle stocks and GHG emissions projection model by using vehicle and travel characteristics. This study projects the impacts of technology and policy enforcement on shaping the dynamics and decarbonization of the LDV market. Additionally, achieving the expected improvement of battery technology and charging infrastructure is critical but can only reduce the 2050 GHG emissions to 48–54% of the 2020 level under the electricity renewable mix scenario. It is almost impossible to achieve a 100% battery electric vehicle stock by 2050 and the 2050 net-zero target in the LDV industry unless ban of internal combustion engine technology is implemented starting in 2035 and under the 2035 100% clean electricity scenario. These extreme conditions also sacrifice most from the consumer welfare perspective. A greater policy forcing intensity accelerates plug-in electric vehicle penetration, while with declining marginal effect and reduced consumer welfare. Among the investigated policy scenarios, the policy forcing intensity equivalent to a fuel tax of $1–2 per gasoline gallon reduces the most GHG emissions while keeping a positive consumer welfare.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Accelerated Carbon and Water Cycles in the Amazon and Congo Basins Revealed From TRENDY Models and Remote Sensing Products

Tropical forests play a vital role in the global carbon cycle and land–atmosphere interactions. Estimating tropical forest carbon–water dynamics is challenging due to observational and modeling uncertainties. This study leverages the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project models and satellite observations to assess changes (2003–2021) in vegetation carbon, gross primary production (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and net biosphere production (NBP) in the Amazon and Congo. Atmospheric CO 2 , climate variability, and land use and land cover changes constrain these variables between 1700 and 2021 with the overall increasing trends of carbon stock and fluxes. The models overestimate vegetation carbon and GPP, while ET and NBP are consistent with observations. Fire-activated models predict lower values for vegetation carbon and GPP, ET, and NBP, aligning more closely with observations. The higher ET from fire-activated models may result from enhanced soil evaporation due to increased canopy openings. Fire-inactivated models could well estimate the magnitudes of NBP. The high vegetation carbon in nitrogen-enabled models points to simulation uncertainties and imbalance in model numbers regarding the nitrogen cycle. Although the nitrogen cycle enhances water use efficiency in both the Amazon and Congo, the models show a higher sensitivity to the nitrogen cycle in the Congo. This study highlights the challenges in accurately representing tropical biogeochemical cycles and the values of satellite products in model evaluations, underscoring the need for standard modeling protocols that address biogeochemical components (e.g., nutrient cycles) to better resolve process-based representations.

Shi, Mingjie [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2023

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Variable Refrigerant Flow with Heat Recovery and Dedicated Outdoor Air System

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on a single heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) end-use savings shape measure - a variable refrigerant flow with heat recovery (VRF HR) heating and cooling system coupled with a dedicated outdoor air system (DOAS) for ventilation. This measure replaces existing multi-zone variable air volume (VAV) systems or single-zone rooftop units (RTU) with a VRF HR system coupled with a DOAS that includes an energy/heat recovery ventilator (E/HRV). The measure covers 53% of exisiting building stock's floor area and is not applicable to HVAC system types using district heating or cooling or buildings/spaces that include high-ventilation spaces such as kitchens where the amount of exhaust air is large. A DOAS with E/HRV is used to provide required outdoor ventilation air to spaces since ventilation air is generally not supplied by a VRF HR system. An exhaust air energy recovery ventilator (ERV ) with sensible and latent heat exchange is added to humid climate zones while a heat recovery ventilator (HRV ) with sensible only exchange is added to drier climate zones. The ERV is modeled as a fixed membrane plate counterflow heat exchanger, while the HRV is modeled as a sensible-only fixed aluminum plate counterflow heat exchanger. Both systems include a bypass (for temperature control and economizer lockout) and minimum exhaust temperature control for frost prevention.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Methodology and analytical approach to investigate the impact of building temperature setpoint schedules

This work presents a method for generating a large set of stochastically varying temperature setpoint schedules for building performance simulations. It analyses tradeoffs resulting from specific changes to those schedules in terms of three quantities: total electricity consumption per day; maximum hourly electricity consumption per day and predicted percentage dissatisfied (occupant thermal comfort). The method for generating schedules requires a single base schedule as the starting point and, using a few clearly defined parameters, transforms it into a set of schedules that can be used for modelling an existing building stock or for performing parametric studies. Temperature setpoint schedules are generated and simulated for a small office building in a cool-dry climate in three different case studies pertaining to changing temperature setpoint schedules. Tradeoffs between the three output metrics are significant and vary based on the temperature setpoint schedules and the time of the year.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

AutoBEM: A scalable framework for nationwide building energy simulation and retrofit evaluation in the United States

This paper presents AutoBEM, an integrated, automated framework for nationwide building energy modeling and retrofit evaluation in the United States. Unlike prior UBEM platforms that either rely primarily on representative stock sampling or operate at city scale, AutoBEM automates the generation of building-resolved, physics-based EnergyPlus/OpenStudio simulation models at national scale using GIS-derived geometry, prototype-based assumptions, and standardized scalable workflows. Leveraging the Model America dataset and high-performance computing, AutoBEM generates and simulates energy models for 122.9 million buildings, representing 97.8% of the U.S. building stock. These models are being made publicly and freely available as the Model America v1.0 (MAv1) dataset. AutoBEM supports detailed, building-level assessments of energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and post-processed anthropogenic heat emissions (AHE), and evaluates 151 energy conservation measures (ECMs) using localized utility pricing and building characteristics. In addition, AutoBEM incorporates both typical and future climate conditions through integration with Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) and Future TMY (fTMY) weather data derived from IPCC scenarios. In a case study of Phoenix, Arizona, AutoBEM identified several high-efficiency HVAC upgrades and selected envelope measures with short modeled payback periods (1.5 years) for certain building types and standards. Simulations under future climate scenarios (SSP5–RCP8.5) project an 11.3% increase in electricity use and a 32% reduction in natural gas demand by 2100, underscoring the need for climate-adaptive retrofit planning. By enabling reproducible, bottom-up, and location-specific analysis at scale, AutoBEM provides a step toward a national digital twin of the built environment and supports data-driven screening and planning for decarbonization, resilience, and energy equity.

Li, Hang [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000306001920)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scout Benchmark Scenarios for U.S. Building Energy and CO2 Emissions to 2050

Overview and Intended Use Cases: These scenarios establish a range of futures for U.S. buildings sector energy use and CO2 emissions to 2050 using Scout (scout.energy.gov), a reproducible and granular model of U.S. building energy use, emissions, and consumer costs developed by the U.S. national labs for the U.S. Department of Energy's Building Technologies Office (BTO). Scout benchmark scenario data are suitable for the following example use cases: setting high-level policy goals for the U.S. buildings sector to 2050 (e.g., X% building CO2 emissions reductions vs. 2005 levels by 2030, Y% reductions vs. 2005 levels by 2050); exploring the effects of key dynamics driving U.S. buildings sector energy and CO2 emissions to 2050 that could be affected by policy levers (e.g., raising minimum technology performance levels; accelerating electrification and/or retrofit rates; introducing breakthrough technologies to the market); determining priority segments (regions, building types, and end use/technology types) and sequencing of U.S. buildings sector energy and CO2 emissions reductions to 2050 under a given set of assumptions; and/or identifying the energy and emissions impacts or cost effectiveness of specific technologies or operational approaches of interest—in isolation or after considering competition with other measures in a scenario portfolio. Scenario Summary: A total of 8 scenarios explore the effects of changes across both the demand- and supply-side of building energy use on annual U.S. building energy use and CO2 emissions from 2022–2050. Scenarios are organized into three groups representing low, moderate, and best-case potentials for building decarbonization, respectively.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗